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psydude posted:And yet it changed the US perception of the war so drastically that it effectively pulled the rug out from under the feet of the Johnson administration and eroded American resolve to win. True, but a big part of that was the news coverage of the war that wrecked the US government’s narrative that North Vietnam was defeated, especially as they could see the Saigon embassy under siege. But in Ukraine I don’t think there is any independent Russian news coverage that could show that.
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Mar 16, 2022 14:00
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psydude posted:And yet it changed the US perception of the war so drastically that it effectively pulled the rug out from under the feet of the Johnson administration and eroded American resolve to win. For sure Ukraine should (and probably is) taking advantage of mobility during the pre-mud season to harass their advances and probe for weak points to exposed support lines and depots, but I wouldn't call that a "counter offensive." When I hear that I think like what the Germans tried to do in Kursk (obviously at like 100x the scale) where they launched a counter-offensive without a clear objective with no chance of actually winning for the sake of just being on the offensive again. Ukraine is already "winning" as much as they can really. The Russian army doctrine even in it's current state where it eats poo poo trying to go for American style blitz without precision munitions or capable junior level initiative would probably relatively excel at fighting a more defensive war. It's important to remember that while the Russian army was shockingly poor, the Ukrainian army was waaaay worse. The reason far-right militias like Azov wormed there way into political relevance was that most Ukrainian regulars were terrible had zero interest in fighting Russian-speaking separatists in the east that used to be viewed pretty sympathetically by many. They just happen to have amazing morale because of Putin's baffling choice to alienate any Ukraine that had a shred of discontent with Kyiv and Russian delusion about or indifference to Urania opinion as a factor in the war. Ukraine doesn't have a morale problem anymore, but they still don't have the ability to launch a modern combined arms offensive at the scale required since as we're learning almost no military besides insanely well-funded and experienced ones really do. Butter Activities fucked around with this message at 14:09 on Mar 16, 2022 |
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Mar 16, 2022 14:06
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SMEGMA_MAIL posted:Ukraine is already "winning" as much as they can really. The Russian army doctrine even in it's current state where it eats poo poo trying to go for American style blitz without precision munitions or capable junior level initiative would probably relatively excel at fighting a more defensive war. It's important to remember that while the Russian army was shockingly poor, the Ukrainian army was waaaay worse. The reason far-right militias like Azov wormed there way into political relevance was that most Ukrainian regulars were terrible had zero interest in fighting Russian-speaking separatists in the east that used to be viewed pretty sympathetically by many. They just happen to have amazing morale because of Putin's baffling choice to alienate any Ukraine that had a shred of discontent with Kyiv and Russian delusion about or indifference to Urania opinion as a factor in the war. Ukraine doesn't have a morale problem anymore, but they still don't have the ability to launch a modern combined arms offensive at the scale required since as we're learning almost no military besides insanely well-funded and experienced ones really do. I'm not sure this is totally accurate, depending on where you are and when. 1) The Russian army in the southeast seems to be doing relatively well right now, probably because they can be easily resupplied from Crimea and the sea. 2) The Russian army in the north seems to be tottering and may be vulnerable to a push at this point after several weeks now without apparent resupply 3) The Ukrainian army *since 2014* has been massively supported and trained by western and specifically American armed forces, who are the only people with the relevant kinds of materiel and expertise. It wouldn't surprise me at all if over the next week or two the Ukrainians manage to push the Russians out of the area around Kiev, but Mariupol and the southeast fall to the invaders.
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Mar 16, 2022 14:18
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:I'm not sure this is totally accurate, depending on where you are and when. Don't forget the terrain factor. The north is densly wooded, insterpsaced with fields that turn to mud and a rather low infrastructure for transporting supplies. Its also home to the capital and heart of the country. Thats where the bulk of the Ukrainian forces are, as well as the east. The south however is flat, open and not nearly as wet as the north, so not as likely to get bogged down with Marshal Mud. Ukrainians can afford to trade space for time and probably don't have as many troops down there holding back the orcs. Even with those factors its telling that the Russian advance hasn't advanced as much as it could.
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Mar 16, 2022 14:40
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I don’t think a comparison to the Tet offensive is justified. Ukraine seems to have been calling up their reservists and placing them out west to retrain and equip. It’s highly possible, probable even, that any offensive will involve fairly large (brigade?) coherent and well equipped (motorized and some mechanized or even armored) and supplied formations.
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Mar 16, 2022 14:42
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And here i was thinking the days of amphibious landings were largely over.
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Mar 16, 2022 15:00
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Sentinel posted:And here i was thinking the days of amphibious landings were largely over. No you see? That’s what makes them so genius! No one is expecting a doomed to fail, highly telegraphed amphibious landing so obviously it will be a massive success.
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Mar 16, 2022 15:04
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Have you all noticed how the Russians have not conducted an amphibious landing at Odessa?
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Mar 16, 2022 15:18
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Murgos posted:No you see? That’s what makes them so genius! No one is expecting a doomed to fail, highly telegraphed amphibious landing so obviously it will be a massive success. Goddamnit we built these gigantic hovercraft, might as well use them.
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Mar 16, 2022 15:19
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Arrath posted:Goddamnit we built these gigantic hovercraft, might as well use them. They're still in Kaliningrad I belive. Right here: https://www.google.com/maps/@54.6354181,19.9127526,786m/data=!3m1!1e3 Ropuchas only tovarich.
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Mar 16, 2022 15:23
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mlmp08 posted:Have you all noticed how the Russians have not conducted an amphibious landing at Odessa? I have. I was expecting some rather spectacular footage of a failed amphibious assault. I haven't seen anything else about the naval force, are they just milling about?
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Mar 16, 2022 15:33
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ASAPI posted:I have. It looks like Russia's taking another tactical pause to regroup and resupply their units. Their leadership may have been humbled a bit by the evisceration of their VDV and Spetznas airborne insertions and aren't trying to repeat the same thing with their naval infantry.
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Mar 16, 2022 15:35
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Or the landing ships are there empty to force Ukraine to divert some troops. Not like they have any use on all of Ukraine's other coasts.
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Mar 16, 2022 15:38
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ASAPI posted:I have. They did minesweeping yesterday, conducted maneuvers near the beach, reportedly conducted some shelling. Could be that the whole thing is/was a feint to keep Ukrainian forces committed just in case, could be that they are doing more rehearsals for some future operation somewhere TBD, could be that they had a plan to conduct an amphib landing weeks ago, but have since decided that it would be too risky, I dunno.
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Mar 16, 2022 15:39
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Quick reminder that the only people who has a high regard for the naval infantry is the naval infantry.
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Mar 16, 2022 15:42
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ThisIsJohnWayne posted:Quick reminder that the only people who has a high regard for the naval infantry is the naval infantry. Motion to start referring to all Marines as Naval Infantry.
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Mar 16, 2022 15:48
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psydude posted:Motion to start referring to all Marines as Naval Infantry. Second
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Mar 16, 2022 15:52
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mlmp08 posted:They did minesweeping yesterday, conducted maneuvers near the beach, reportedly conducted some shelling. Could be that the whole thing is/was a feint to keep Ukrainian forces committed just in case, could be that they are doing more rehearsals for some future operation somewhere TBD, could be that they had a plan to conduct an amphib landing weeks ago, but have since decided that it would be too risky, I dunno.
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Mar 16, 2022 15:54
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Naked Bear posted:There were also the early reports that those troops were refusing to fight which, if true, would lend credence to the notion that they're just trying to keep Ukrainian units tied to the area. I don't have a link to share, but the mutiny was confirmed by US intelligence.
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Mar 16, 2022 16:05
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psydude posted:Motion to start referring to all Marines as Naval Infantry. Just call them Mobile Infantry
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Mar 16, 2022 16:09
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MA-Horus posted:Just call them Mobile Infantry The only still mobile Russian infantry.
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Mar 16, 2022 16:10
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https://twitter.com/ostapyarysh/status/1504113774357368835?s=21
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Mar 16, 2022 16:14
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 Grandstanding, but real.
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Mar 16, 2022 16:18
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What was said earlier about trading land for time is a pretty big factor. The longer Ukraine holds out the more Russia's economy starts resembling Chernobyl. They've done a lot over the years to insulate themselves from that but you can only do so much without going full Juche in the modern world and I personally believe they were caught completely off guard by the level and world wide unity of their isolation and sanctions.
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Mar 16, 2022 16:44
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Platystemon posted:
Also I remember even in my Philadelphia public school ninth grade textbook, where they have the constitution and commentary under it, mentions it being outlawed by your national convention in 1868. lol The random obscure stuff in the constitution is always so cool to look at and read about.
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Mar 16, 2022 16:47
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bird food bathtub posted:What was said earlier about trading land for time is a pretty big factor. The longer Ukraine holds out the more Russia's economy starts resembling Chernobyl. They've done a lot over the years to insulate themselves from that but you can only do so much without going full Juche in the modern world and I personally believe they were caught completely off guard by the level and world wide unity of their isolation and sanctions. Something like a 1/6th of their foodstuffs are imported, but the Russians could definitely get through the year without serious problems, tightening the belt to make that happen. But with over half of their chemicals being imported, that situation becomes a lot more uuuuuuuh without serious Chinese food aid. Time is on the Ukranian side, I think. The Russian military is not going to get stronger the longer this goes on, and I think that the first days of the conflict was the point at which the Russians were at their strongest.
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Mar 16, 2022 16:53
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The International Criminal Court tells Russia to stop all military activities on Ukranian soil. https://www.icj-cij.org/public/files/case-related/182/182-20220316-ORD-01-00-EN.pdf Yeah let's see how much they'll heed that decision.
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Mar 16, 2022 17:01
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bird food bathtub posted:What was said earlier about trading land for time is a pretty big factor. The longer Ukraine holds out the more Russia's economy starts resembling Chernobyl. They've done a lot over the years to insulate themselves from that but you can only do so much without going full Juche in the modern world and I personally believe they were caught completely off guard by the level and world wide unity of their isolation and sanctions. Yeah they were that's the beauty of it. They probably had some preparations in mind but more than likely never anticipated this level of unity from most of the world. Im actually a little optimistic for ukraine at this point. If they can keep up what theyre doing and keep buying more time eventually the Russians wont have any options left. If you cant feed or pay people they tend to gently caress off as fast as they can.
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Mar 16, 2022 17:01
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It sounds like the peace talks are trending toward an Austria-style armed neutrality backed by the West, which gives Pooty Poot his out while admitting Ukraine to NATO in everything but name. e: I'm sure Crimea will be ceded as well, but Ukraine really never had a chance of reclaiming that. https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...f0832c62addf18e e2: If it goes through, Russia will of course try to tout it as a victory, but lol. So in exchange for high four-figures, low five-figures in dead Russians; the destruction of your economy; and isolation from the rest of the developed world, you get a piece of land you already owned; NATO troops permanently stationed in the Baltics and Poland; Sweden and Finland probably joining NATO; and Ukraine still joining the EU with a legally binding defensive pact with your two biggest nuclear armed enemies. psydude fucked around with this message at 17:13 on Mar 16, 2022 |
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Mar 16, 2022 17:05
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 Only when actually viewing the video so I’ll let it be embedded. https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1504126917972307974?s=21 It’s just horrific; tears in my eyes, just one of the the most devastating things I’ve ever watched. Give them everything that’s not a tactical or strategic nuke, that won’t require US/NATO training or operators, or is something classified to a level like that penetration aid.
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Mar 16, 2022 17:13
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The tweet won’t embed because nms smilies are present in the post. I mention this because it appears to be a deleted tweet, but it is not.
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Mar 16, 2022 17:17
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Platystemon posted:The tweet won’t embed because nms smilies are present in the post. Oh weird. For some reason it’s showing about as embedded on my awful app. I never knew that using disables it. That’s pretty cool.
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Mar 16, 2022 17:19
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Oooof that’s a rough loving video. Dead babies man. loving Russia.
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Mar 16, 2022 17:28
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Platystemon posted:
Russia still has cargo vessels around the world that are having very limited success finding a port they can load/discharge in.
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Mar 16, 2022 17:37
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Platystemon posted:
Literal Blackwater Pirates lmao
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Mar 16, 2022 17:37
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FrozenVent posted:Oooof that’s a rough loving video. Yeah, it’s loving gut wrenching, it’s like the Tori Amos ASPCA ad on steroids. Marshal Prolapse fucked around with this message at 17:43 on Mar 16, 2022 |
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Mar 16, 2022 17:38
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yeah that video this morning was a rough rear end unexpected ride. felt like a gutpunch and had to shut my office door for a bit and not talk to anyone. like mega angry but unbelievably depressing and hopeless all at the same time. been a while sense i have felt legitimately murderously angry and didnt expect to on a random wednesday morning but welp.
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Mar 16, 2022 17:42
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sneakyfrog posted:yeah that video this morning was a rough rear end unexpected ride. felt like a gutpunch and had to shut my office door for a bit and not talk to anyone.  You’re not alone.
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Mar 16, 2022 17:43
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thanks   my wife told me i need to stop dwelling on it but i feel like i have to pay attention because i live in honkeytown usa where i hear "well you know if nato hadnt provoked russia..." on the daily and i need to have something to cram down someones throat.
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Mar 16, 2022 18:08
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sneakyfrog posted:thanks Yeah I couldn't watch the video just from what you guys said. I gotta go hug my 3 year old.
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