|
Speaking of consequences of capitulation: https://twitter.com/Mike_Eckel/status/1504198397422673920?cxt=HHwWgIC54aGe_t8pAAAA
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2022 23:47
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 24, 2024 05:47 |
|
|
porfiria posted:I feel like for a lot of citizens of the Internet, the universe was created ab nihilo 4 or 5 months ago. Please make an actual argument, not a sly reference to one.
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2022 23:49
|
|
|
porfiria posted:I feel like for a lot of citizens of the Internet, the universe was created ab nihilo 4 or 5 months ago. Oh id love to hear your version of history
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2022 23:49
|
|
|
Deadbeat Dad posted:"Surrender" is just a really bad term to use. I think I get the gist of what he's saying? Attempt to minimalize future casualties by pushing peace talks to the forefront, find gray areas with Russia where both sides may be able to have wiggle room to strike a deal that will let the Russians get the gently caress out of their country sooner than later and Ukraine can (hopefully) rebuild with more alliances and future security... but they're doing that already, regardless of how much they trust Putin to honor anything from that in the future. The thing is there is no guarantee Putin can make that will convince anyone he will uphold it. Which is why the people of Ukraine are risking and losing their lives fighting him, they don't see any way out of this other than defeating brute force with brute force. And unfortunately I believe they're right, something dramatic needs to change or Putin will just regroup and try this again no matter what peace deal he negotiates. Russia either needs to have a total economic collapse that stops it from fighting, a revolution or palace coup, or lose enough forces in Ukraine that they are forced to retreat. The only other option I can think of is way less likely and far more risky; Ukraine being jumped into NATO after a peace deal so Russia would have to test Article 5 to attack again. The people of Ukraine could have chosen to lay down arms, even if Zelensky had insisted on staying and fighting. But they very much didn't, the world didn't tell them to fight, and Russia definitely expected them not to. They made this choice themselves and it was their sovereign right to do so. I get that it is still detached and inhumane of us outside Ukraine to weigh the pros and cons of their fate, but at least they have used their own agency, and we are enabling that agency, but we're just not sure how best to help past what's already been done.
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2022 23:50
|
|
|
porfiria posted:ROFL if you don't think NATO would happily see Ukraine turned into a charnel house if they thought it would give Putin a bloody nose. I mean, I doubt NATO/The west is in this war for purely benevolent reasons, but I'd wager they'd prefer to keep Ukraine a semi functioning state that can sell the EU food and oil from the recently discovered deposits than a charnel house even if the second one hurts Russia more.
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2022 23:51
|
|
|
Fray posted:Hypersonic cruise missiles are a hot R&D subject for basically every major military in the world these days, but no one has actually put them into service as far as has been demonstrated. A few pages back, but this is not correct. Russia uses - and has used in Ukraine - hyeprsonic Iskander missiles. The hypersonic scramjet Zircon has also entered production but I've not seen evidence of it being used yet.
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2022 23:51
|
|
|
OddObserver posted:Speaking of consequences of capitulation: That’s it, I am about to surrender. Should I just turn myself into the closest Russian consulate to me?
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2022 23:51
|
|
|
Celexi posted:What fanfic in the news you speak of? It's not an outrageous belief that NATO would gas up Zelenskyy and Kiev to reject Minsk 2 adherence in favor of weapons/sanctions. NATO will take actions to prolong the war but direct intervention is off the table no matter how much Zelenskyy asks for it. They're perfectly happy to defend Ukraine down to the last Ukranian. To simplify it, NATO is run by very shrewd countries who are much more anti-Russia than they are Pro-Ukraine.
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2022 23:51
|
|
|
OddObserver posted:Speaking of consequences of capitulation: According to some posters its good as they were "western nato collaborators of the neo-liberal order" or, "the us has killed more people in the last 30 years".
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2022 23:51
|
|
|
OddObserver posted:Speaking of consequences of capitulation: Tankie: "This all good, they just went to retire in a personal dacha further north, gift from Papa Putin." "No, you can't visit or write them."
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2022 23:52
|
|
|
Gorman Thomas posted:It's not an outrageous belief that NATO would gas up Zelenskyy and Kiev to reject Minsk 2 adherence in favor of weapons/sanctions. NATO will take actions to prolong the war but direct intervention is off the table no matter how much Zelenskyy asks for it. They're perfectly happy to defend Ukraine down to the last Ukranian. To simplify it, NATO is run by very shrewd countries who are much more anti-Russia than they are Pro-Ukraine. Ah, so Ukrainians have no agency and are just doing what their western bosses told them?
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2022 23:53
|
|
|
How dare that defensive alliance watch its biggest threat and reason for being shoot itself in the dick! the nerve!
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2022 23:54
|
|
|
New Study of War assessment https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1504222073333366785?t=8fmKqBgxdpdhC1QuzDR63g&s=19 Article: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-16 Summary: quote:Key Takeaways quote:Immediate items to watch Also the Russians have been lying about their successes/control of territory in the South a lot, or at least the situation has been fluid enough that their claims become untrue not long after they're made. I really hope Ukraine can shake some troops loose to go help relieve Mariupol, but I don't think they can 
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2022 23:54
|
|
|
OddObserver posted:Speaking of consequences of capitulation: Give peace a chance and surrender to warmongering dictators, because the endemic murder and disappearance of civilians under a brutal occupational regime don't give me the same icky feelings as people dying because of a defensive conflict and are easier for me to ignore. also because rolling over and giving everything over to the warmongering dictators will surely teach those dictators a lesson and eventually bring them to heel. *also don't sanction the dictator, that's wrong too
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2022 23:55
|
|
|
Celexi posted:Ah, so Ukrainians have no agency and are just doing what their western bosses told them? Agency isn’t real in a world where we believe in causality at all; however, you are absolutely correct in as much as we must act like we have agency, and Ukraine makes up its own mind about whether to resist Putin. And they are doing a drat fine job of it.
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2022 23:55
|
|
|
OddObserver posted:Speaking of consequences of capitulation: Bring back majoran and list chat
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2022 23:56
|
|
|
Celexi posted:Ah, so Ukrainians have no agency and are just doing what their western bosses told them? Kyiv made a choice when presented with opportunities, that is agency.
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2022 23:56
|
|
|
The NATO puppetmaster theory requires you to ignore that the only reason NATO would like Putin to get a bloody nose is because he keeps invading his neighbours and if he just stopped invading his neighbours the need for him to get a bloody nose would go away. e: you also have to ignore the complete lack of evidence that anything like this happened.
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2022 23:56
|
|
|
the holy poopacy posted:No arguments there, but I'm not sure how that means that capitulation to Russia is the only moral choice. I feel like people, especially USAmericans, have a hard time dealing with letting someone gently caress you over. Your partisan band goes into the woods and the Nazis start liquidating villages until you surrender. Do you give up? Who gets to make that choice? Maybe some of those villages would prefer you to stand down--maybe some day the Nazis will be gone and the only ontological difference in the universe is whether some civilians got immolated or not. None of which is say it would be best if the Ukranian gov't rolled over, just that the moral righteousness isn't always the only factor.
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2022 23:56
|
|
|
Gorman Thomas posted:Kyiv made a choice when presented with opportunities, that is agency. So, the choices: 1. Vassal state of the Russia, genocide of any dissidents, have the russian fsb run ukranian security 2. become a republic in the russian federation and all of the above 3.fight 4.?
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2022 23:58
|
|
|
Deadbeat Dad posted:"Surrender" is just a really bad term to use. I think I get the gist of what he's saying? Attempt to minimalize future casualties by pushing peace talks to the forefront, find gray areas with Russia where both sides may be able to have wiggle room to strike a deal that will let the Russians get the gently caress out of their country sooner than later and Ukraine can (hopefully) rebuild with more alliances and future security... but they're doing that already, regardless of how much they trust Putin to honor anything from that in the future. Sure, that's agreed. If the Ukrainians can get out an acceptable peace deal, even if it doesn't get them everything, they should absolutely take it - every day the war goes on is a painful price for the Ukrainians. The issue is that Putin doesn't really seem to be dealing in good faith and isn't really making offers that don't seem like a setup for a future invasion which is obviously worthless and would put us right back to the beginning of the war at best. I can't speak for anyone else but it really does seem like the only way to get Putin to actively accept any kind of decent peace is to slam his dick in the door a few times until he finally gets the hint, and that's going to mean more baby-bombing until that point. Mind you, that's potentially going to run into ANOTHER problem - polls earlier suggested that a pretty hefty majority of Ukrainians are unwilling to accept a peace that renounces claims on the Donbass or Crimea. Those would be the easiest way to buy Putin off cheaply, but apparently Ukrainians are either extremely confident in their eventual victory (and sure that it will be worth it), or too stubborn to consider permanently losing their claims to such, or both. As others have said, Ukrainians have agency but that can swing both for "we must have peace and not bleed ourselves for NATO's sake" as well as for "WE MUST RECLAIM OUR RIGHTFUL LAND." We'll see what ends up happening, but for the moment I get the impression that the Ukrainians probably aren't willing to take the easiest offramp.
|
|
#
?
Mar 16, 2022 23:59
|
|
|
porfiria posted:I feel like people, especially USAmericans, have a hard time dealing with letting someone gently caress you over. This isn't an American phenomenon and I have no idea why you think it is.
|
|
#
?
Mar 17, 2022 00:00
|
|
|
porfiria posted:I feel like people, especially USAmericans, have a hard time dealing with letting someone gently caress you over. Is this a hypothetical you pulled out of your rear end?
|
|
#
?
Mar 17, 2022 00:00
|
|
|
TheRat posted:A few pages back, but this is not correct. Russia uses - and has used in Ukraine - hyeprsonic Iskander missiles. The hypersonic scramjet Zircon has also entered production but I've not seen evidence of it being used yet. Pretty sure iskanders are SRBMs.
|
|
#
?
Mar 17, 2022 00:02
|
|
|
porfiria posted:I feel like people, especially USAmericans, have a hard time dealing with letting someone gently caress you over. Again, still a valid principle, but tangential to the argument at hand. Just to be clear, no one in Ukraine has any obligation to make Putin pay for his perfidious crimes. If Ukraine unconditionally surrenders tomorrow I will not be wailing or gnashing my teeth that they let Putin win. It's their call, not mine. But as long as they're able and willing to fight, I will support that call.
|
|
#
?
Mar 17, 2022 00:03
|
|
|
Yeaaaaaah whatever is going on in Belarus probably isn't artillery exercises https://twitter.com/MotolkoHelp/status/1504220792908926987?t=dBG0Iw-7Sp4ByYjLhca-4g&s=19 I don't know what it is, but the math doesn't seem to work
|
|
#
?
Mar 17, 2022 00:04
|
|
|
OddObserver posted:https://twitter.com/brainnotonyet/status/1504173223210106882?cxt=HHwWhIC-offk8t8pAAAA Greenpeace has not been a fan for years  https://www.greenpeace.org/usa/issues/koch-industries-company-facts/
|
|
#
?
Mar 17, 2022 00:06
|
|
|
porfiria posted:ROFL if you don't think NATO would happily see Ukraine turned into a charnel house if they thought it would give Putin a bloody nose. Every post you've made in here has been wink wink nudge nudge support for the people actually turning it into a charnel house, so I'm not sure why you necessarily see this as a critique.
|
|
#
?
Mar 17, 2022 00:09
|
|
|
KitConstantine posted:Yeaaaaaah whatever is going on in Belarus probably isn't artillery exercises Artillery is much louder then hand held guns, which is what that math they used is for. But they also could be right! Isn't fog of war great?
|
|
#
?
Mar 17, 2022 00:10
|
|
|
porfiria posted:I feel like people, especially USAmericans, have a hard time dealing with letting someone gently caress you over. Why do you hate ukrainian partizans in the second world war?
|
|
#
?
Mar 17, 2022 00:11
|
|
|
porfiria posted:I feel like people, especially USAmericans, have a hard time dealing with letting someone gently caress you over. You have absolutely never left whatever extremely extremely cozy corner of Western Europe you're from if you think this an "especially Americans" thing.
|
|
#
?
Mar 17, 2022 00:12
|
|
|
Can't the Koch dipshits be charged with violating sanctions?
|
|
#
?
Mar 17, 2022 00:12
|
|
|
Tomn posted:Sure, that's agreed. If the Ukrainians can get out an acceptable peace deal, even if it doesn't get them everything, they should absolutely take it - every day the war goes on is a painful price for the Ukrainians. Bolded part is the relevant idea here. Russia and Ukraine both had a chance to strike a deal before the war and both held unrealistic expectations of each other. Now that the war is on, its just a matter of both sides bleeding each other until one side or the other or both decide to come to an arrangement. Clearly, the Ukrainians emboldened by the tidal wave of Western weapons and the fact that they have indeed stopped the Russian advance cold are not in any hurry to give up anything that they have not already stated. Zelensky has already hinted that an agreement where NATO is off the table along with some recognition for Donbas and Crimea is possible but it is clear that Putin wants more. So this will continue until the Russian economy literally falls off a cliff due to sanctions or the Russian Army actually refuses to fight and goes home. That said there won't be a Russia Ukraine 2. Putin will be dead by the time the Russian military is rehabilitated to pre-war levels (let alone improving it to actually be able to invade a Ukraine now filled with Western arms) given that even if Putin just declares victory and goes home with no actual gains, I am guessing a ton of sanctions will remain in place and everyone except China is moving as fast as they can to get themselves off of Russian energy. This will be Putin's last war. He knows it and that is why he is so stubborn on this. He feels he needs something concrete to come out of this gamble and he is willing to bury the Russian Army and as many Ukrainians as needed to try and achieve it.
|
|
#
?
Mar 17, 2022 00:13
|
|
|
the holy poopacy posted:Again, still a valid principle, but tangential to the argument at hand. I guess the issue ultimately is to what degree you feel the Zelensky government embodies the Ukranian General Will.
|
|
#
?
Mar 17, 2022 00:13
|
|
|
porfiria posted:I guess the issue ultimately is to what degree you feel the Zelensky government embodies the Ukranian General Will. Pretty damned well from everything I've seen.
|
|
#
?
Mar 17, 2022 00:14
|
|
|
These arguments about why the Ukrainian people should just roll over and accept defeat to 'save lives', aren't based on any kind of logic nor are they credible. Neither are the Twitter arguments putting so much emphasis on Azov (problematic as they are), putting all the blame on NATO's bloodthirsty forced expansion, crying false tears over the impact of sanctions, or justifying the attack due to Russia's 'legitimate security concerns', etc. They're basically all grounded in emotion and coming from the same place - they are half-assed attempts to shift the narrative (both public and their own internal) away from a fundamental truth that they find uncomfortable and hard to accept - that this is an unjust, indefensible imperial war of conquest and genocide by Russia. They find this truth uncomfortable because it goes against their traditional anti-imperial assumptions. The people making these arguments have no issue with (and likely a long history of) opposing the unjust imperial wars of Western powers - both historical, Cold-War and recent. And that's as it should be! All imperial wars are criminal and filled with countless loss of life and tragedies. I personally think this one is so far on a level that we've not seen since WW2, but I completely accept it does have some parallels with the Iraq War and other conflicts, and can appreciate that some may reasonably feel they are 'equally' unjust and that the West is hypocritical, etc. The point is though, that this long history of opposition to Western imperialism, has become ingrained into their identity, to the point that condemning non-Western imperialism feels extremely uncomfortable. After all, Russia has generally been an opponent of Western imperialism. It may have opposed it for its own selfish reasons, but it still opposed Iraq, Libya, etc, and is the successor to the Soviet Union (what's that you say about Afghanistan? Prague? Budapest? Never heard of them. Move along please...). As such, Russia has been internalised as if not inherently good, then at least understandable and usually on the correct side. The Western powers however have always been the baddies (not far off to be fair), and so are inherently bad and must always be opposed. Now we are in a situation where the roles are reversed, and Russia has launched a manifestly unjustifiable invasion of a neighbour on ethnonationalist imperialistic grounds, and is busy warcriming and genociding it up, as it slips into becoming a fascist hellscape. Meanwhile, the West attempts to support Ukraine from being conquered and genocided through funding, arms-shipments, taking in refugees and sanctions. It seems really difficult for some people to accept this role reversal, presumably as they feel it challenges an aspect of their anti-imperial identity? Requiring them to agree with actions that the West is taking, or even worse, agreeing with their ultimate posting enemies, the vile libs. It is far easier to instead dig in, and latch onto more comfortable arguments - no matter how farcical they are - that reinforce their core anti-imperial assumptions, like we are seeing with people signal-boosting Russian propaganda about Ukrainians shelling their own civilians, how every school, hospital and house is a secret an Azov hideout, how bloodthirsty NATO is truly responsible for forcing poor sweet innocent Russia into its special military operation. They then post these takes - either here (in an attempt to pivot the discussion back to something they are more comfortable with - attacking the old enemy) or elsewhere (Twitter, etc, in an attempt to reinforce and reassure eachother) TL/DR: Unnecessarily long amount of  to say: Tankies gonna Tankie
|
|
#
?
Mar 17, 2022 00:16
|
|
|
MikeC posted:Bolded part is the relevant idea here. Russia and Ukraine both had a chance to strike a deal before the war and both held unrealistic expectations of each other. Was "please stop invading me" an unrealistic expectation?
|
|
#
?
Mar 17, 2022 00:16
|
|
|
porfiria posted:I guess the issue ultimately is to what degree you feel the Zelensky government embodies the Ukranian General Will. Well he's currently sitting at 90% approval rating with a 10% margin of error because there's a war on so I am confident that right now he can claim to represent his people's will literally more than any other democratic government in the world and even a fair number more than the non-democratic ones.
|
|
#
?
Mar 17, 2022 00:16
|
|
|
Celexi posted:So, the choices: Try making an arguement if you disagree with what I said.
|
|
#
?
Mar 17, 2022 00:17
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 24, 2024 05:47 |
|
|
Tell me you've never been to a country that lives under constant existential threat without telling me you've never been to a country that lives under constant existential threat.
|
|
#
?
Mar 17, 2022 00:17
|
|