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Hieronymous Alloy posted:https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1504415199889174528?s=20&t=RvBxPF0ZRIwHxCJsj0arrw
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Mar 17, 2022 12:23
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Who's going to be the first 'defense analyst' writing a paper on how the russian armed forces were terminally damaged by its soldiers playing video games too much?
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Mar 17, 2022 12:23
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:I appreciate the effort but I think this unfortunately boils down to a lot of words and a lot of guessing. Russia "fail cascading" at this point would be even worse for global stability. I don't particularly like the idea of LARPing the warlords period of China but with nuclear weapons thrown in the pot for seasoning.
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Mar 17, 2022 12:24
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https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1504416951518564360?s=20&t=WmheESCmUq6WBGiger6a1A https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1504404711029542914?s=20&t=dhLtjleQ4uqcT9oA5kCi8Q https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1504398657113759752?s=20&t=dhLtjleQ4uqcT9oA5kCi8Q https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1504381121240391680?s=20&t=dhLtjleQ4uqcT9oA5kCi8Q Russian command and control aircraft (same model as the Presidential Jet) are flying around Russia picking up or dropping off someone of importance.
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Mar 17, 2022 12:24
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Dwesa posted:Imagine Putin visting hospital and sitting 50m from the hospital bed or Putin shooting down 5 CGI Bayraktars that's why they gotta chop down all those trees gotta make a table that can reach to Moscow
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Mar 17, 2022 12:25
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:Forgive me if this is a dumb question but are all these shelters under buildings leftovers from the Cold War or are the Ukrainians just really really good at building sturdy basements? The former, USSR had shitload of bomb shelters. Also basements, which were built much sturdier that what storing pickles would’ve required.
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Mar 17, 2022 12:25
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Warmachine posted:Russia "fail cascading" at this point would be even worse for global stability. I don't particularly like the idea of LARPing the warlords period of China but with nuclear weapons thrown in the pot for seasoning. The Russian government collapsing doesn't necessarily mean a one way street to Mad Max. It was a nuclear nation in 1991 too, it didn't set any of them off. Global stability isn't the ultimate goal of humanity, global peace is closer to it. The way to global peace from this point in history goes through a collapse of Putin's Russia. I most prefer a nice and calm collapse, but I'll happily take a Gadaffi variant.
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Mar 17, 2022 12:31
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https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1504418075671728131?s=20&t=SumoDmfveyr_FeYuKPMtzw The bit about the Russian Foreign Minister is...really weird. Half way to talk to China and his flight turns around and returns to Moscow. It's not Clancychat if it's discussing what's already happened. Right?
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Mar 17, 2022 12:32
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Warmachine posted:Russia "fail cascading" at this point would be even worse for global stability. I don't particularly like the idea of LARPing the warlords period of China but with nuclear weapons thrown in the pot for seasoning. Yeah I meant the army not Russia domestically. I could see Russia's "client states" and outlying regions try to split off -- Belorussia seems halfway there already. I don't see Russia itself doing that though, there's nobody else inside Russia who could credibly take power from Putin. Not short of a mass people's uprising and Putin still has enough control to make sure anyone who tried that would get machinegunned.
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Mar 17, 2022 12:33
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Saladman posted:People were saying the pace of the war was slowing down – and I'm seeing fewer videos now – but it looks like the loss over time is pretty linear for Russian vehicles? Is there an easy way on Oryx to see the daily losses? No, at best you can see the daily filings by Oryx - which isn’t especially informative, as they frequently complain about being backlogged.
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Mar 17, 2022 12:34
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Comstar posted:https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1504418075671728131?s=20&t=SumoDmfveyr_FeYuKPMtzw Russia is not launching a nuclear attack on the U.S. or Ukraine.
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Mar 17, 2022 12:35
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Comstar posted:https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1504418075671728131?s=20&t=SumoDmfveyr_FeYuKPMtzw Chechen leadership moved their families to Dubai weeks ago. The more likely explanation by far is fears of riots or instability due to the incipient economic crisis.
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Mar 17, 2022 12:35
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Comstar posted:The bit about the Russian Foreign Minister is...really weird. Half way to talk to China and his flight turns around and returns to Moscow. He is going to have a press conference with some UAE guy. Probably just China that told him "go away - we don't have time right now" to show who is in charge. As for the posturing and threats, they've done that from the beginning. That doesn't make any less unnerving, but they're upset after the 'war crime' label Biden gave Putin yesterday. They'll keep making threats, and probably they'll get even more overt before this is over.
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Mar 17, 2022 12:36
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Comstar posted:
Exercise as a message. This is probably how an evacuation before an anticipated nuclear strike would look. If it was anything truly important we wouldn't have been able to track them via transponders.
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Mar 17, 2022 12:38
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Saladman posted:People were saying the pace of the war was slowing down – and I'm seeing fewer videos now – but it looks like the loss over time is pretty linear for Russian vehicles? Is there an easy way on Oryx to see the daily losses? Oryx updates constantly but somewhat irregularly. He isn't tracking by day as far as I know and it would be inaccurate if he did since he is getting a random assortment of photographs taken at random times of random battles between 02/23 and 03/17. A daily tally would just reflect and track what he has managed to prove each day and I don't think it'd be directly comparable to the actual war losses by day. That will likely never be known and only roughly estimated in future retroactive investigations into what specific units had been doing. Russia may have lost an 80 vehicle convoy one week in everyone was claiming was Ukrainian Ghost Of Snake Island Propaganda to dismiss but it was proven more than a week later when the person doing the counting eventually got to the evidence taken sometime after that battle. Even then the 80 claimed by Ukraine was wrong and his tally might only be as low as 30 but it might have missed vehicles not photographed or ones that broke down elsewhere after being damaged. A dead boneyard of Russian vehicles could have been a regroup point where losses were written off outside of any combat and someone stumbles upon it days later. There are likely entire destroyed convoys nobody has seen. The Pace of the war will change with Russia command decisions as well. They keep aborting that amphibious assault but if they absolutely demand to keep fighting and need a huge victory then they are going to do something extremely loving bad and dumb and mass assault something, dramatically escalating losses. Hieronymous Alloy posted:I appreciate the effort but I think this unfortunately boils down to a lot of words and a lot of guessing. Who claimed to be able to divine the status of a war with math? People are trying to come up with an accurate picture of the situation and are citing authors, reporters and multiple foreign and domestic governments attempting to do so. I referenced a figure generated by someone referring to 3 different sources to update a generalized "Accurate Estimate" of around 15% while speaking extremely clearly to the fact that that was a lot of words and a lot of guessing with giant ranges and extensive references to the fact that all we know is it's worse than what we think. The guessing part is that we don't know how bad it is and the words part is all of the reasons why. Unless you think Russia managed to over deploy it's perfect ideal of an army and go beyond 100% textbook deployment to try and stunt on Ukraine with 20,000 units instead of 10,000 or something against literally every indication to the opposite. I could also not be figuring in miracle reinforcements from The Russian Home Base but there are zero indications that has happened beyond footage of city buses and minivans being shipped to the front, tanks being pulled from their outer borders a week or two ago or evidence they are shipping trucks by boat from the sea of japan. Rectal Death Adept fucked around with this message at 12:41 on Mar 17, 2022 |
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Mar 17, 2022 12:38
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Comstar posted:Russian command and control aircraft (same model as the Presidential Jet) are flying around Russia picking up or dropping off someone of importance. I have to assume that if poo poo was truly going down these planes wouldn't be running their transponders. And if some sneaky poo poo is going down we won't find out until its already happened.
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Mar 17, 2022 12:39
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Comstar posted:https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1504418075671728131?s=20&t=SumoDmfveyr_FeYuKPMtzw Putin whining about the US using nuclear weapons against Japan is a bad sign because it's an old grievance of his and basically behind it is the grievance "if they used it why can't we??"
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Mar 17, 2022 12:44
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Comstar posted:https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1504416951518564360?s=20&t=WmheESCmUq6WBGiger6a1A This person whose tweets you are posting is literally being hysterical. The Russians are not about to launch a nuclear attack on anyone.
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Mar 17, 2022 12:46
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The entirity of Russian foreign/geopolitics comes down to whataboutism.
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Mar 17, 2022 12:48
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Chechen leadership moved their families to Dubai weeks ago. Trump posted:Exercise as a message. This is probably how an evacuation before an anticipated nuclear strike would look. If it was anything truly important we wouldn't have been able to track them via transponders. Vincent Van Goatse posted:I have to assume that if poo poo was truly going down these planes wouldn't be running their transponders. https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1504402050192400391?s=20&t=-9Gns4dQI1US4aqlwAeXyg Incidentally, Stoltenberg just reiterated NATO's policy which is somewhat reassuring https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1504412125103636488?s=20&t=JEv5bPIODKLiRTg1xlPGbg
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Mar 17, 2022 12:48
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ZombieLenin posted:This person whose tweets you are posting is literally being hysterical. The Russians are not about to launch a nuclear attack on anyone. Yeah it's much more easily explained by putin hugely ramping up the rhetoric about going against anyone who opposes the war at all in Russia. Which he gave a completely unhinged speech about yesterday.
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Mar 17, 2022 12:50
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:I have to assume that if poo poo was truly going down these planes wouldn't be running their transponders. Your expectation of Russian competence is quite high after what we have observed this last 3 weeks. In the other case rats fleeing the ship before it sinks seems more significant.
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Mar 17, 2022 12:51
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So, how was the beach date?
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Mar 17, 2022 12:52
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Ola posted:The Russian government collapsing doesn't necessarily mean a one way street to Mad Max. It was a nuclear nation in 1991 too, it didn't set any of them off. Global stability isn't the ultimate goal of humanity, global peace is closer to it. The way to global peace from this point in history goes through a collapse of Putin's Russia. I most prefer a nice and calm collapse, but I'll happily take a Gadaffi variant. How did Libya end up post Gadaffi? You want Russia to go down that route?
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Mar 17, 2022 12:54
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There's a lot of action going on in Ukraine, but not hearing anything happening on the Russian side of the fence (not that we would?) - maybe there are some threats of some retaliation on Russian soil / covert ops / dissidants targetting figures in Moscow? Might explain VIP movements and the like?
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Mar 17, 2022 12:54
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Seems like government aircraft flying people to different places during a war where there is, you know a lot of stuff to organize, seems pretty whatever. Honestly surprised there's not more Dubai flights. Would imagine if you had the option to would be a lot more relaxed place to be right now. Not sure where people are getting imminent nuclear war/coup out of this.
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Mar 17, 2022 12:55
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Rabid Snake posted:How did Libya end up post Gadaffi? You want Russia to go down that route? How did Romania do after Ceaucescu? That would be nice.
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Mar 17, 2022 12:56
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Humphreys posted:So, how was the beach date? Whole Black Sea fleet thing is just a slightly more proactive version of a fleet in being. Having their amphibious assault ships leave port every so often and make runs toward the general direction of Odessa, maybe shell a few things, before turning around for home. Its all to ensure Ukrainian forces in the region are kept tied down and not redeployed to where they could be more useful. They're not going to try to land there - they know it would be even more of a shitshow than the VDV's antics.
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Mar 17, 2022 12:56
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There Bias Two posted:He's pretty amazing at this, relative to most other politicians. He must've taken acting lessons
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Mar 17, 2022 12:57
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Humphreys posted:So, how was the beach date? They sailed up withing firing distance, took a few potshots with missiles, and then left. Same as last time.
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Mar 17, 2022 12:58
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Yeah it's much more easily explained by putin hugely ramping up the rhetoric about going against anyone who opposes the war at all in Russia. Which he gave a completely unhinged speech about yesterday. How would Putin's rhetoric and the flights be related? Do you mean that Russian elites are fleeing the country because of Putin threatning to purge them?
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Mar 17, 2022 12:59
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Rabid Snake posted:How did Libya end up post Gadaffi? You want Russia to go down that route? Umm… what exactly makes you think a collapse of the Russian government would follow the model of Libya? I must have slept through the Second Great Russian Civil War in the early 1990s. And the Great Eastern European Warlord Wars that must have happened in 1991 too.
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Mar 17, 2022 12:59
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steinrokkan posted:How did Romania do after Ceaucescu? That would be nice. They are in the bin mostly. But stable I guess.
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Mar 17, 2022 13:02
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ZombieLenin posted:This person whose tweets you are posting is literally being hysterical. The Russians are not about to launch a nuclear attack on anyone. I agree, but I do think Putin is intentionally sending a message. https://twitter.com/akihheikkinen/status/1504419455966793728?t=s_tH9kWwCeRzHYLlNPiciQ&s=19
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Mar 17, 2022 13:02
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Tuna-Fish posted:They sailed up withing firing distance, took a few potshots with missiles, and then left. Same as last time. P much. They're still lurking though, and in visual range https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1504418234883358722?t=h2RP4qYmjaqwZS_eDIx4cg&s=19
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Mar 17, 2022 13:03
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ZombieLenin posted:Umm… what exactly makes you think a collapse of the Russian government would follow the model of Libya? I must have slept through the Second Great Russian Civil War in the early 1990s. Its just dumb to use Gaddafi as a place holder for execution and public death since we all know what happened to Libya after. Use a different person if you don’t want to be open for criticism Rabid Snake fucked around with this message at 13:09 on Mar 17, 2022 |
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Mar 17, 2022 13:05
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ZombieLenin posted:And the Great Eastern European Warlord Wars that must have happened in 1991 too. That was actually a thing, more or less without the "warlord" part.
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Mar 17, 2022 13:11
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You all know that if Russia were actually about to launch a nuclear strike, U.S. intelligence would be a step ahead of them and changing their nuclear posture right? (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Mar 17, 2022 13:12
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Collateral posted:They are in the bin mostly. lol what are you talking about? it took a while but romania has improved by leaps and bounds since they transitioned towards joining the EU and NATO in the early 2000s. they still have a lot of problems but putting a bullet in the ceaucescus did not collapse the country by any means. now compare to what would likely have happened if ceaucescu had retained power, after having thoroughly hosed over the country for the previous couple decades
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Mar 17, 2022 13:16
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Gervasius posted:That was actually a thing, more or less without the "warlord" part. It would require specific understanding of "Eastern European" to include Balkans and Caucasus. I don't recall digging any tank trenches to defend Wrocław from immediate German strike..
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