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Deteriorata posted:In combat news, https://t.me/ukrpravda_news/10770 Nenonen posted:There's a now retired Finnish officer Pekka Majuri, whose name means major. When I was in the army I recall he was still just a captain (kapteeni Majuri), then he became a major (majuri Majuri) and by the time he retired from active duty he was a colonel (eversti Majuri). Not confusing at all. 
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Mar 17, 2022 19:35
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the popes toes posted:Some Belt and Road recipients have started to perceive an extractive rent trap into which they have been duped, so I'm not sure. What may happen, is a strengthened EU offering other financial incentives leading to economic participation. Or they may go back to protecting butter and bacon, I dunno. Full disclosure: I'm hoping for a muscular confident EU that can project influence beyond their immediate borders. I'm largely in favor of a stronger EU, but the EU raising tensions with China by getting into influence competitions over Central Asia would be, uh, interesting, and I'm not sure where that would end up going, or if it'll go somewhere good.
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Mar 17, 2022 19:39
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.Z. posted:It gets worse, this POS is in Poland. I still don’t understand what this has to do with Ukraine v Russia?
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Mar 17, 2022 19:39
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TulliusCicero posted:Central Asia is more likely to re-align with China. Honestly the Belt and Road Iniative is a brilliant diplomatic tool and "alliance" for them, and if the West was half as smart as the dipshits in charge think they are they would offer something similar, instead of hoarding huge piles of money like fantasy dragons. Belt and Road is a just a glorified debt trap and anyone remotely familiar with china knows china only does things for china.
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Mar 17, 2022 19:39
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Ynglaur posted:I'd be interested if they pushed from Mykolaiv or just went around Russian forces east of Mykolaiv and cut them off. I don't remember that, but there is a story that in WW2 the US created the temporary "General of the Army" rank because if they followed the lead of the other Allies they'd have a Marshal Marshall.
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Mar 17, 2022 19:39
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Ynglaur posted:Wasn't this a joke on M.A.S.H. or something?
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Mar 17, 2022 19:41
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Boris Galerkin posted:I still don’t understand what this has to do with Ukraine v Russia? Then read the loving post. He's trying to traffic Ukrainian children to the US
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Mar 17, 2022 19:41
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PederP posted:Ukrainian officials stating they will not budge on 1991 borders. Depending on what happens in the coming weeks and months, Putin may end this war holding less territory than before the invasion. I don't think UAF is going to roll into Sevastopol any time soon, but if the Russian military collapses then Crimea might be up for UN peacekeepers and a (second) referendum. I don't think Russia will be able to (or want to) hold on to Donbass after this. This part interests me the most: either Ukraine are horribly overconfident that the Russians are spent and they have the upper hand in a stalemated war that could swing either way, or Ukraine has enough data to indicate the Russians are effectively losing the war and the economic conditions mean Ukraine feels it can actually just reclaim its territory with the force it has. Seems EXTREMELY optimistic to me, but if the Ukranians really are that confident they probably aren't budging on territory concessions.
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Mar 17, 2022 19:41
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TulliusCicero posted:Central Asia is more likely to re-align with China. Honestly the Belt and Road Iniative is a brilliant diplomatic tool and "alliance" for them, and if the West was half as smart as the dipshits in charge think they are they would offer something similar, instead of hoarding huge piles of money like fantasy dragons. Any state even remotely interested in joining had a nice show of their potential future in Montenegro, which is soon going to be eaten by China repo mans.
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Mar 17, 2022 19:43
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TulliusCicero posted:This part interests me the most: either Ukraine are horribly overconfident that the Russians are spent and they have the upper hand in a stalemated war that could swing either way, or Ukraine has enough data to indicate the Russians are effectively losing the war and the economic conditions mean Ukraine feels it can actually just reclaim its territory with the force it has. From what I've read, everyone who has dealt with Putin finds that he only respects the people who fight back. I can totally see how that might affect how you negotiate with him versus negotiating with someone more grounded in concrete socioeconomic concerns. Plus, if you don't think his representatives are really speaking for him, then why undercut your own position? It's a horrible situation to be in, but there's a horrible person on the other side. Despera posted:Belt and Road is a just a glorified debt trap and anyone remotely familiar with china knows china only does things for china. But President Xi, my people yearn for freedom.
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Mar 17, 2022 19:44
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Boris Galerkin posted:I still don’t understand what this has to do with Ukraine v Russia? Huge refugee crisis which is providing easy access to undocumented children?
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Mar 17, 2022 19:45
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Despera posted:Belt and Road is a just a glorified debt trap and anyone remotely familiar with china knows china only does things for china. True, but then loving offer something that genuinely works as a counter-balance That way developing countries can pick something besides "Modernize but owe us everything" or "FYGM"
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Mar 17, 2022 19:47
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:I'm trying to dig through this is thread and I swear I saw it earlier - wasn't there an article or link to some twitter post that describe why Putin invaded Ukraine from primary an economic perspective? It was quite in-depth and went into stuff like the EU Carbon Tax, etc. They found a massive reserve of natural gas underneath Crimea and were just beginning drilling operations when it was seized by Russia. Russia's outward flow of natural gas to the rest of Europe was the linchpin in how they were able to get away with as much as they have and if Ukraine were allowed to continue it would have seriously harmed their leverage.
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Mar 17, 2022 19:51
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TulliusCicero posted:True, but then loving offer something that genuinely works as a counter-balance I think there are options outside of go gently caress yourself and give us a 99 year lease. Also just defaulting and telling china to shove it works well too.
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Mar 17, 2022 19:52
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Tomn posted:I'm largely in favor of a stronger EU, but the EU raising tensions with China by getting into influence competitions over Central Asia would be, uh, interesting, and I'm not sure where that would end up going, or if it'll go somewhere good.
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Mar 17, 2022 19:52
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Is this corroborated by other sources?
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Mar 17, 2022 19:54
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PIZZA.BAT posted:They found a massive reserve of natural gas underneath Crimea and were just beginning drilling operations when it was seized by Russia. Russia's outward flow of natural gas to the rest of Europe was the linchpin in how they were able to get away with as much as they have and if Ukraine were allowed to continue it would have seriously harmed their leverage. And if I recall correctly they then found massive fossil fuel reserves under western Ukraine which American companies were just starting to look into drilling when this happened. That doesn't mean this war isn't Putin trying to play out his empire ambitions, but things can have more than one cause.
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Mar 17, 2022 19:57
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Despera posted:I think there are options outside of go gently caress yourself and give us a 99 year lease. Also just defaulting and telling china to shove it works well too. That's an interesting point: can China really enforce its debt collection on states outside its orbit? I don't see China committing nor having the resources to commit to invading Central Africa or something.
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Mar 17, 2022 19:58
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Killer robot posted:I don't remember that, but there is a story that in WW2 the US created the temporary "General of the Army" rank because if they followed the lead of the other Allies they'd have a Marshal Marshall. So wait: if there's a Lieutenant General, and a Captain General, and a Major General, and a Colonel General... holy poo poo, there must be a General General. Imagine how powerful that dude would be! Nenonen posted:Is this corroborated by other sources? Yes. https://thediplomat.com/2022/03/uzbek-foreign-minister-calls-for-halting-of-hostilities-in-ukraine/ https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-03-17/russia-ally-uzbekistan-calls-for-swift-halt-to-ukraine-conflict https://eurasianet.org/uzbekistan-calls-for-an-end-to-aggression-in-ukraine William Bear fucked around with this message at 20:02 on Mar 17, 2022 |
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Mar 17, 2022 19:58
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1st_Panzer_Div. posted:My primary source is that this makes a lot of sense and significantly boosts Ukraine's chances in the war. That's not what the word source generally refers to.
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Mar 17, 2022 19:58
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Allegedly, Russia has taken control of the Ukrainian town of Izyum, south of Kharkiv. https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1504522422258737154
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Mar 17, 2022 19:59
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Ynglaur posted:I'd be interested if they pushed from Mykolaiv or just went around Russian forces east of Mykolaiv and cut them off. There are probably not a lot of Russian forces east of Mykolaiv. They did one large push north bypassing the city, and then the lead elements got their teeth kicked in at Voznesensk. After that it's been really unclear just what remains near Mykolaiv. Two days ago, there started being a lot of videos released of entirely intact equipment abandoned near there, including multiple artillery positions that had guns and ammo and just nothing else. It's possible they all fell back to a more defensive line near Kherson. The massive red shaded area in most maps is probably just how everywhere where a Russian soldier steps stays red in most maps until Ukrainians report recapturing it. TulliusCicero posted:This part interests me the most: either Ukraine are horribly overconfident that the Russians are spent and they have the upper hand in a stalemated war that could swing either way, or Ukraine has enough data to indicate the Russians are effectively losing the war and the economic conditions mean Ukraine feels it can actually just reclaim its territory with the force it has. Option 3, this is all just bad reporting on how no member of the Ukrainian government is actually constitutionally capable of conceding territory. Reportedly, Zelensky asked for a Russian withdrawal to positions of 23rd of February. This isn't demanding Crimea back, it's just refusing to concede it. To actually do the concession while following the constitution of Ukraine, they'd have to hold a referendum in all of Ukraine, and for that they need peace first.
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Mar 17, 2022 20:00
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TulliusCicero posted:That's an interesting point: can China really enforce it's debt collection on states outside its orbit? I don't see China committing nor having the resources to commit to invading Central Africa or something. no, it can't. there was all sorts of stuff about how china could take uganda's only international airport if they default. but, uh, ok? it's in uganda. them having ownership of it is totally meaningless, they can't actually shut it down. i think the downsides of belt and road are kind of exaggerated. if you are getting a bunch of infrastructure built for you that you otherwise couldn't, that's a net plus even if you default
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Mar 17, 2022 20:01
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TulliusCicero posted:That's an interesting point: can China really enforce it's debt collection on states outside its orbit? I don't see China committing nor having the resources to commit to invading Central Africa or something. Concerned Citizen posted:no, it can't. there was all sorts of stuff about how china could take uganda's only international airport if they default. but, uh, ok? it's in uganda. them having ownership of it is totally meaningless, they can't actually shut it down. i think the downsides of belt and road are kind of exaggerated. if you are getting a bunch of infrastructure built for you that you otherwise couldn't, that's a net plus even if you default The usual financial effects of government debt default would make it incredibly hard for the governments of many developing countries to operate. If you don't show that you can service your debt, you don't get new funds to keep governing and that turns into local instability and potential upheavals. I don't think China needs to go extracting repayments by military force to make its point if someone can't pay up. If you're a politician in power who wants to stay in power, you do need to be careful about debt loads. That being said, it sounds like the whole "debt trap" angle is somewhat overblown: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2021/02/china-debt-trap-diplomacy/617953/
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Mar 17, 2022 20:01
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Regarding Izium: https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1504531396748058629 Control of that town seems to be a revolving door.
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Mar 17, 2022 20:01
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Nenonen posted:Is this corroborated by other sources? https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/russia-ally-uzbekistan-calls-swift-halt-ukraine-conflict-2022-03-17/ quote:TASHKENT, March 17 (Reuters) - Uzbekistan, a Central Asian republic with close ties to Russia, called on Thursday for a diplomatic resolution of the conflict in Ukraine and said it would not recognise Moscow-backed separatist statelets there.
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Mar 17, 2022 20:02
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PederP posted:Regarding Izium: Something very unsavory about using the term "liquidated" for anything outside investments.
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Mar 17, 2022 20:03
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Eric Cantonese posted:That being said, it sounds like the whole "debt trap" angle is somewhat overblown: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2021/02/china-debt-trap-diplomacy/617953/ It is very much overblown, this is not the thread for it though so I won't say much else.
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Mar 17, 2022 20:04
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Nenonen posted:Is this corroborated by other sources? Yeah, there was a vid of their government saying so. Saw it, but can't find it now. e: https://twitter.com/TUmarov/status/1504373168575766533
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Mar 17, 2022 20:04
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PIZZA.BAT posted:They found a massive reserve of natural gas underneath Crimea and were just beginning drilling operations when it was seized by Russia. Russia's outward flow of natural gas to the rest of Europe was the linchpin in how they were able to get away with as much as they have and if Ukraine were allowed to continue it would have seriously harmed their leverage. Ukraine wasn't even remotely an economic threat to Russia in itself, even if they were to develop both reservoirs. If I'm thinking of the same article that they meant, it was about the slated sunsetting of fossil fuels first and foremost.
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Mar 17, 2022 20:04
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SlowBloke posted:Any state even remotely interested in joining had a nice show of their potential future in Montenegro, which is soon going to be eaten by China repo mans. https://www.npr.org/2021/06/28/1010832606/road-deal-with-china-is-blamed-for-catapulting-montenegro-into-historic-debt
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Mar 17, 2022 20:05
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Eric Cantonese posted:The usual financial effects of government debt default would make it incredibly hard for the governments of many developing countries to operate. If you don't show that you can service your debt, you don't get new funds to keep governing and that turns into local instability and potential upheavals. I don't think China needs to go extracting repayments by military force to make its point if someone can't pay up. right, but the reason why china is coming in the first place is the fact that these countries already lack the ability to secure financing at an affordable rate. defaulting isn't ideal but it also isn't the end of the world. it's a bigger problem for the china, the lender, than it is for the country defaulting edit: yeah i guess this is off-topic though so whatever
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Mar 17, 2022 20:06
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William Bear posted:Yes. Nice! Uzbekistan along with Turkmenistan are big natural gas producers. Unfortunately for them the pipeline goes through Russia, so they can't really bypass Putin as a preferred trade partner...
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Mar 17, 2022 20:08
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1st_Panzer_Div. posted:My primary source is that this makes a lot of sense and significantly boosts Ukraine's chances in the war. A secondary source is Russia Today - to which I can see no reason they would make a claim that is correlated with their defeat in Libya as it makes Russia look less likely to "win" in Ukraine: https://www.rt.com/russia/551149-zelensky-ukraine-foreign-fighters/ Except that it allows RT to smear volunteers as mercenaries (true or not), so no, I don't see RT as a reliable source here. And there do seem to be a significant number of people coming to Ukraine out of idealism, not because of money. Sir John Falstaff fucked around with this message at 20:12 on Mar 17, 2022 |
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Mar 17, 2022 20:10
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Eric Cantonese posted:Something very unsavory about using the term "liquidated" for anything outside investments. Blame 90s Russian media doublespeak when reporting on military issues
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Mar 17, 2022 20:11
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nerox posted:Lieutenant Corporal was a rank obtained by only one soldier in the Korean War. Lieutenant Corporal Walter "Radar" O'Reily. However, since Lieutenant Corporal was an officer rank, his enlisted friends no longer liked him and no other officers took him seriously, so he got himself demoted back to Corporal in a few days. When asked about the rank names, an unnamed colonel simply described it as "horse hockey". I think you'll find he was also a Corporal Captain for fifteen minutes when they needed to visit an O-club in Seoul.
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Mar 17, 2022 20:12
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Re Putin trying to grab bodies from Belarus and other satellite countries in Eastern Europe or the Middle East to throw into the meat grinder, how the gently caress is that supposed to work out if the soldiers in your own army who, in theory, have the highest motivation to win your war, are doing a poo poo job of it?
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Mar 17, 2022 20:14
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https://twitter.com/colonelhomsi/status/1504421601915420675
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Mar 17, 2022 20:14
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Holy poo poo, keep this news away from the people of Ukraine, it would be devastating to their morale! https://twitter.com/dylanewells/status/1504520138388914187
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Mar 17, 2022 20:15
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Zwabu posted:Re Putin trying to grab bodies from Belarus and other satellite countries in Eastern Europe or the Middle East to throw into the meat grinder, how the gently caress is that supposed to work out if the soldiers in your own army who, in theory, have the highest motivation to win your war, are doing a poo poo job of it? It's not supposed to win war. It's supposed to wear down Ukrainians, and buy Russian forces time to work on regrouping and unfucking their supply lines. Primarily the latter.
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