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Morrow posted:https://mobile.twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1504810592468713472 Something really does seem wrong with his face.
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Mar 18, 2022 23:50
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Pakled posted:How sure are we about all these reports of high-ranking Russian officers getting killed? It seems like we've been getting a lot of reports along those lines in the last couple days but I have no idea how reliable this information is. About this one specifically we’re not sure at all, but for a fair amount of others we have corpse photos or evidence of funeral proceedings in Russia.
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Mar 18, 2022 23:51
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spacetoaster posted:A study of battalion commanders during Vietnam showed that commanders who "led from the front" had around 25% more casualties that commanders that stayed out of the fight and focused on directing troops and support. Honestly, a 25 percent increase in fatalities with a vastly more risky approach seems weirdly low. "Commanders who singlehandedly march behind enemy lines with nothing but a knife on their body have a 50% increase in casualties compared to those who stayed in the war tent." As I write this, I realize what you mean: If those commanders leave their tent, 25% more of their men get eradicated.
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Mar 18, 2022 23:51
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Sending generals to front lines to boost morale isn't something that the armies winning that war would do, yes. But sending the generals that are no longer favored by the leader is something that I have no doubt, Putin would do. IMHO Putin is making his opponents to take the bullet, so that he can make them the "heroes that lost their lives" making that new Russian empire. Since Putin is so adamant of making his own Russian Empire revival, these guys are made targets on purpose?
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Mar 18, 2022 23:51
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Dapper_Swindler posted:https://twitter.com/KassyDillon/status/1503818738264682504 The second guy is in the Georgian FL, not the Ukranian FL like the first guy. Here's an article from Task and Purpose that outlines a bit of the recruitment process for UFL. Important bits highlighted. https://taskandpurpose.com/news/ukraine-foreign-legion/ Task and Purpose posted:Recruits for the Ukrainian Foreign Legion are invited to apply via the Ukrainian embassy in their country of residence. After a cursory initial interview, they are told to head for Ukraine via Warsaw and overland to Lviv in western Ukraine. The route is so well known that it is heavily monitored by the Russians, according to a Ukrainian special forces officer I spoke with. He was worried that they would soon begin targeting recruits before they reached their destination. After Lviv, the recruits are sent to a camp near the Polish border for selection and training. Selection apparently follows no discernable process other than separating those that don’t have military experience from those that do. The former are put through a 4-week training course — the latter are given a weapon and sent to the front in ad-hoc units with a Ukrainian officer. Some candidates are inexplicably rejected while others – regarded as being eminently unsuitable by their peers, are retained. In any case, the process has some fatal flaws – no one becomes a competent soldier in just 4 weeks, and even experienced soldiers require assimilation training. Every war has its own dynamics which can be equally lethal to veterans and beginners if not properly understood.
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Mar 18, 2022 23:51
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spacetoaster posted:I don't know who he is, and his bio didn't seem too crazy to me. He is/was a reporter for RT, among other Russia-linked "news" outlets such as The Grayzone. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...n-a7543691.html https://thegrayzone.com/author/alexander-rubinstein/ Sir John Falstaff fucked around with this message at 23:57 on Mar 18, 2022 |
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Mar 18, 2022 23:51
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Antigravitas posted:Don't forget the people who believe the German state is illegitimate, and instead the Kaiserreich still exists. They often want the borders of the Reich back as well. That's a shame, I've heard stories of the Holy Roman Empire. I bet German sovereign citizens can twist themselves into some truly magnificent legal pretzels based on imperial case law without borrowing from the US.
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Mar 18, 2022 23:53
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Putin's stadium speech, with English subtitles. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XH1Cqvpq8Is&t=418s
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Mar 18, 2022 23:53
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spacetoaster posted:I don't know who he is, and his bio didn't seem too crazy to me. Have you read the posts of the guy you shared?
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Mar 18, 2022 23:54
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Morrow posted:https://mobile.twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1504810592468713472 He's pushing 70. Granted, that's like 10 years younger than Biden, but yeah. After getting caught up on this thread and several other sources, my hot take is that the Ukrainians are at a key locus in their fight. Russia has extended as far as their supply lines will take them and they're losing men/machines/officers at a horrifying rate. BUT, there's more where that came from, and the lines are still mostly static (meaning the RA hasn't collapsed yet). I still don't know why they're wasting fuel and manpower on bringing more boats to the Med though. So the next week will be telling. If UA can keep counterattacking and pushing the russians back, this bodes poorly for Russia--they can send in more materials but they'll be firmly on the back foot with far fewer modern munitions than they started with (they've blown through over a thousand cruise missiles in less than a month). If Ukraine can't capitalize then this will extend for a lot longer barring some failscade on either side. One thing is certain though: Russia will bleed for every centimeter of Ukrainian territory.
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Mar 18, 2022 23:54
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spacetoaster posted:A study of battalion commanders during Vietnam showed that commanders who "led from the front" had around 25% more casualties that commanders that stayed out of the fight and focused on directing troops and support. Russia's General-rank system has a fair number of positive things about it in that they take specialisms seriously and promote through those career tracks (as opposed to Western militaries who have a tendency to favour a particular route - ie. combat commands). The problem with their system of training to do a certain number of battle drills at the tactical level and focus on operational/strategic decision making is that it takes intervention at a relatively senior level to deal with how to react to an unfamiliar situation... which is something that tends to happen a lot in war.
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Mar 18, 2022 23:55
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cant cook creole bream posted:As I write this, I realize what you mean: If those commanders leave their tent, 25% more of their men get eradicated. Presumably because the sort of officer who wants to 'lead from the front' is also the sort of officer who thinks 'aggression' is the tactical panacea.
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Mar 18, 2022 23:55
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Gorman Thomas posted:The second guy is in the Georgian FL, not the Ukranian FL like the first guy. Wait, what? Wouldn't Belarussian troops in Ukraine be enormous news?
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Mar 18, 2022 23:55
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Morrow posted:https://mobile.twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1504810592468713472 having grown up during the iraq war, i feel an intense sense of deja vu seeing the russian government pivot to a moralistic justification for the invasion of ukraine in order to keep support for the war from flagging among the general public. hell, there's even weapons of mass destruction now. i feel like if you're cribbing that deep from the bush playbook, you kind of have to internally think "wait, didn't the war i'm copying from end poorly for all involved?" Concerned Citizen fucked around with this message at 23:58 on Mar 18, 2022 |
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Mar 18, 2022 23:55
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The Lone Badger posted:Presumably because the sort of officer who wants to 'lead from the front' is also the sort of officer who thinks 'aggression' is the tactical panacea. I assume it's also because those people would lose their focus on the bigger picture. I imagine they'd reprimand some privates near the front line for holding their guns unsteady, while behind them the supply lines break down because nobody bothers to check for logistics. Quite frankly, that seems exactly what's going on there.
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Mar 18, 2022 23:58
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Concerned Citizen posted:having grown up during the iraq war, i feel an intense sense of deja vu seeing the russian government pivot to a moralistic justification for the invasion of ukraine in order to keep support for the war from flagging among the general public. hell, there's even weapons of mass destruction now. Yeah, it's an eerie parody of all the worst parts of the Iraq war.
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Mar 18, 2022 23:58
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Have you read the posts of the guy you shared? No, I saw the video on youtube and then found it on twitter to post it. I do not have a twitter account so I don't particularly have the skills (other than just looking at the bio) to immediately figure out who's posting what.
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Mar 18, 2022 23:58
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There Bias Two posted:Something really does seem wrong with his face. He looks like a generic older fat guy, just with a really expensive cosmetologist. Gorman Thomas posted:The second guy is in the Georgian FL, not the Ukranian FL like the first guy. “Georgian National Legion” is an Ukrainian paramilitary from ways back in 2014, which eventually got merged into Ukrainian army. It was founded by a Georgian army veteran, but consists of foreigners from all over the place.
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Mar 19, 2022 00:02
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Pavlov posted:Yeah Putin looks like he's aged 5 years in the last 3 weeks.
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Mar 19, 2022 00:02
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Froghammer posted:I honestly doubt he's slept more than two or three hours a night for the past three weeks. He looks weathered, which is never a good look for a would-be strongman. "I'll have time to sleep when, this war is finished in two days!" -Putin, four weeks ago.
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Mar 19, 2022 00:03
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spacetoaster posted:No, I saw the video on youtube and then found it on twitter to post it. . . . why would you need to go find it on Twitter? You know you can post Youtube links, right?
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Mar 19, 2022 00:04
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Tomn posted:Wait, what? Wouldn't Belarussian troops in Ukraine be enormous news? Not even Ukrainian authorities are saying that. I have no idea what that website is, but the specific article is selling itself rather poorly.
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Mar 19, 2022 00:06
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The Lone Badger posted:Presumably because the sort of officer who wants to 'lead from the front' is also the sort of officer who thinks 'aggression' is the tactical panacea. The Finnish army doctrine is "lead from the front" but that goes only to the Major, who usually leads a battalion. Everything above, its headquarters time. Using your colonels or generals on the absolute front is just stupid posturing. The management of the army and logistics are the thing that wins the wars, not sending a guy with the stripes to the front lines to say "attack more". This isn't Warhemmer 40K
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Mar 19, 2022 00:07
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https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1504914226497871883?t=av81ux1wZyFTsSwIy7sLpA&s=19 If this war doesn't end quickly, we'll likely see another humanitarian crisis like Yemen.
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Mar 19, 2022 00:07
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Not So Fast posted:https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1504914226497871883?t=av81ux1wZyFTsSwIy7sLpA&s=19 Considering the amount of food not getting anywhere and Ukraine missing its sowing season we will see famines anyway. They can send their greeting card to the Putin administration.
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Mar 19, 2022 00:11
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Sir John Falstaff posted:. . . why would you need to go find it on Twitter? You know you can post Youtube links, right? Twitter always shows up, youtube sometimes shows up as just a link. Maybe I missed a day in posting school.
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Mar 19, 2022 00:12
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Not So Fast posted:https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1504914226497871883?t=av81ux1wZyFTsSwIy7sLpA&s=19 I think it’s already extremely ugly, with 6.5 million displaced internally and 3.2 million refugees abroad, but the food story seems to have 2 separate parts. Ukraine on the whole has more than enough to feed itself, I think - they’re just failing to provide for people stuck in the besieged cities. Starvation is threat to 300-400k in Mariupol, not to the entire country.
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Mar 19, 2022 00:12
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cinci zoo sniper posted:“Georgian National Legion” is an Ukrainian paramilitary from ways back in 2014, which eventually got merged into Ukrainian army. It was founded by a Georgian army veteran, but consists of foreigners from all over the place. So all the volunteer brigades fall under the Territorial Defense Force at this point? I'm trying to find info about the command structure as that T&P article indicates some level of autonomy but it could all just be heresay.
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Mar 19, 2022 00:16
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spacetoaster posted:Twitter always shows up, youtube sometimes shows up as just a link. Quick tip I picked up from this thread, if you don't have an account you can scroll down past the "log in now" thing Twitter throws up by clicking log in, and then x-ing out. You then get to resume scrolling without having to bother with a Twitter account, allowing you to see replies and scroll timelines.
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Mar 19, 2022 00:18
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Concerned Citizen posted:having grown up during the iraq war, i feel an intense sense of deja vu seeing the russian government pivot to a moralistic justification for the invasion of ukraine in order to keep support for the war from flagging among the general public. hell, there's even weapons of mass destruction now. i feel like if you're cribbing that deep from the bush playbook, you kind of have to internally think "wait, didn't the war i'm copying from end poorly for all involved?" Dubya served out his two terms, retired a multi-millionaire, and made tons of money for Halliburton and co. Those are the closest cognates of Putin and his cronies in this analogy. The war ended poorly for everyone else involved, but other than a dip in Dubya's popularity at the end, he and his pals made out just fine. If anything Putin looked at the Iraq war and went "why wouldn't I want some of that?"
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Mar 19, 2022 00:19
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Gorman Thomas posted:So all the volunteer brigades fall under the Territorial Defense Force at this point? I'm trying to find info about the command structure as that T&P article indicates some level of autonomy but it could all just be heresay. That is correct, yes. Territorial Defence Forces consist of professional soldiers, local volunteers, and foreign volunteers; and are subordinated to the armed forces proper - because they’re deployed in mixed formations alongside army, national guard, cops, etcetera. I cannot find any official chain of command information for the foreign volunteers, but, for what it’s worth, this article suggests that Georgian legion may have an outsized role in corralling foreign volunteers, which would make sense to me.
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Mar 19, 2022 00:33
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Lead out in cuffs posted:Dubya served out his two terms, retired a multi-millionaire, and made tons of money for Halliburton and co. Those are the closest cognates of Putin and his cronies in this analogy. The war ended poorly for everyone else involved, but other than a dip in Dubya's popularity at the end, he and his pals made out just fine. If anything Putin looked at the Iraq war and went "why wouldn't I want some of that?" I suppose though that Putin's endgame is him being on his deathbed at 113 while having not given up one iota of power, and preferably having multiplied it manyfold, with everyone in Russia still terrified of displeasing him in any way.
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Mar 19, 2022 00:39
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William Bear posted:The usual line I hear is that these generals are at the front to supervise their men in person, because morale is so low. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uz1J9PUcMQ0&t=66s
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Mar 19, 2022 00:40
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the helicopter that engaged in a "tactical landing" was geolocated. and would you believe it, it's still there. free helicopter. https://twitter.com/JosephHDempsey/status/1504953946506420232
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Mar 19, 2022 00:44
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God history seems to be repeating itself. It would seem like going to the Ukrainian front is the equivalent of being sent to the Eastern front for the nazis. As if you so discontent or try to poop Putin you're immediately sent to the loving outskirts of Kyiv with nothing more than a range Rover
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Mar 19, 2022 00:45
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Concerned Citizen posted:the helicopter that engaged in a "tactical landing" was geolocated. and would you believe it, it's still there. free helicopter. If its engine or driveline was hit, its trash. Leave it.
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Mar 19, 2022 00:45
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We can't stop here this is tractor country
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Mar 19, 2022 00:47
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OAquinas posted:He's pushing 70. Granted, that's like 10 years younger than Biden, but yeah.
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Mar 19, 2022 00:50
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:God history seems to be repeating itself. It would seem like going to the Ukrainian front is the equivalent of being sent to the Eastern front for the nazis. As if you so discontent or try to poop Putin you're immediately sent to the loving outskirts of Kyiv with nothing more than a range Rover I don't think Putin has that granular an interest in the command of the military, either before this or now. My suspicion is that generals started going "gently caress gently caress gently caress gently caress what do we do to fix this" about two weeks ago and some of them thought their presence would be a motivator at rhe front. Or they thought they better seem like they're doing something once Putin starts looking, and heading to the front is a pretty visible way to do that. Then their terrible communications gave away their location and Ukraine wasn't gonna *not* take the free kills.
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Mar 19, 2022 00:55
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OAquinas posted:He's pushing 70. Granted, that's like 10 years younger than Biden, but yeah. Yeah. He probably hasnt slept in weeks even before the invasion. also he isn't a public facing politician outside carefuly crafted stunt bullshit so this was probably hell for him having to do inspiring speeches and poo poo. FlamingLiberal posted:The fact that they are pulling units from all over the place and are resorting to having to get Syrian volunteers and things of that nature don't exactly bode well for Russia's success. Meanwhile there is going to be a flood of equipment coming from the US and (I assume) continued supplies from Europe for Ukraine. this. Obviously Russia can still win this and id say its their's to lose, but i think they may very well lose this. your not doing the poo poo they are doing if your winning and kicking rear end. Concerned Citizen posted:having grown up during the iraq war, i feel an intense sense of deja vu seeing the russian government pivot to a moralistic justification for the invasion of ukraine in order to keep support for the war from flagging among the general public. hell, there's even weapons of mass destruction now. i feel like if you're cribbing that deep from the bush playbook, you kind of have to internally think "wait, didn't the war i'm copying from end poorly for all involved?" yeah but W and co did that at least a couple months/years in for why we should stay and etc. this has been 3 weeks.
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