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Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

HappyHippo posted:

There's no way to know if it's a hack or not. It's certainly the cover story they would use if they accidentally published the real numbers. I would also expect a real hacker would do something with more... flair than this.

The numbers weren't there in the original version of the article and were added some time later in the day. What is most likely is that there was an employee with access to their CMS who added the numbers, and nobody noticed until today.

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fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

SourKraut posted:

While I'd love for that first photo to be true, I'm a little skeptical that it's a photo during the current crisis.

One of the signs says "мрія не горить" - "the dream does not burn", a clear reference to the destroyed giant plane Mria/Dream

Kyiv is a giant city with Russian forces fighting in its northern suburbs only and the missile strikes are not as frequent as in the first days. It is entirely possible for parts of it to work as usual.

Fame Douglas
Nov 20, 2013

by Fluffdaddy
On the BBC World Service, there was talk of people getting a haircut in Kiev and supermarkets receiving fresh supply.

Random Integer
Oct 7, 2010

Charliegrs posted:

I mean this is probably true, but there's kind of no way to tell when and where these pictures were taken.

I dont rate Nolan Peterson particularly highly on the credibility scale but he is actually there and theres no particular reason to doubt this. Theres a large enough media presence in Kyiv that if it was suffering general food shortages we'd have head about it.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 21

quote:

March 21, 5:30pm ET

Russian forces did not make any major advances on March 21. Russian forces northwest and northeast of Kyiv continued to shell the city and strengthen defensive positions but did not conduct major offensive operations. Russian forces did not conduct any offensive operations toward the northeastern Ukrainian cities of Chernihiv, Sumy, or Kharkiv in the last 24 hours. Russian forces continued to reduce the Mariupol pocket and conducted several unsuccessful assaults in Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts but did not launch any offensive operations around Kherson.

Key Takeaways

Russian forces did not conduct any offensive operations northwest of Kyiv and further reinforced their defensive positions.
Russian forces did not conduct offensive operations in northeastern Ukraine and have been unable to solve logistics issues.
Russian forces continued to make slow but steady progress and shell civilian infrastructure in Mariupol.
Russian and proxy forces conducted several unsuccessful assaults in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts in the past 24 hours.
Russia continues to deploy low-quality reserves, including combat-support elements and low-readiness units from the Eastern Military District, to replace losses in frontline units.
The Ukranian General Staff warned that Russia seeks to conduct a provocation to bring Belarus into the war, but a Belarusian offensive into western Ukraine remains unlikely to occur or succeed if it did.

So Russia continues to burn resources doing nothing.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Deteriorata posted:

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 21

So Russia continues to burn resources doing nothing.

I don't think they have a choice at this point. Pulling back troops would cause an immediate crisis.

Zhanism
Apr 1, 2005
Death by Zhanism. So Judged.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

I don't think they have a choice at this point. Pulling back troops would cause an immediate crisis.

We just need to clog their guns with our wreckage and bodies. Zapp Brannigan is always right!

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

Kaal posted:

If Putin isn't able to get Belarus to attack Ukraine and shut down the supply routes, then those Wagner guys are in for a tough time.

Er, even if they attack, Belarus is absolutely not capable of shutting down the supply routes. To do that, they'd have to advance 400km, of which the first 100km is through the Pripet marsh, on a front where there are only 3 usable north-south roads. Against an enemy that has at least 5 times the force of the entire Belarusian army in the area.

Blut
Sep 11, 2009

if someone is in the bottom 10%~ of a guillotine

William Bear posted:

Russia has its worst demographics of all time for absorbing mass death of young men. Sources I see online seem to show the average median age of a Russian was 34 in 1990. It's over 40 now.

Surely that has to be something to consider.

Russia has 15.9 million men aged 18-35. Their war losses would need to hit 500,000 deaths before it started making a demographic dent. Demographics are the least of Russia's war concerns.

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?


WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

I don't think they have a choice at this point. Pulling back troops would cause an immediate crisis.

Pulling back now as much as I would love to see it would be enormously embarrassing but if they did... How does Russia even get back into the world economy?

Shes Not Impressed
Apr 25, 2004


How Ukraine won the war:
https://twitter.com/IMatviyishyn/status/1505896506691399682?s=20&t=sCvxGH37t41N6neZi3_d2w

Icon Of Sin
Dec 26, 2008



WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

I don't think they have a choice at this point. Pulling back troops would cause an immediate crisis.

They may not have a choice, but I think it’s within possibility that they’re unable to pull their troops back out. Their fuel shortages are so bad, logistics so hosed/harassed, etc that they literally cannot move anyone out that’s already there.

gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

Pulling back now as much as I would love to see it would be enormously embarrassing but if they did... How does Russia even get back into the world economy?

I think sanctions would be lifted pretty soon after a full withdrawal and a peace treaty went into force with neutral peacekeeping forces on the ground in Ukraine.


Tuna-Fish posted:

Er, even if they attack, Belarus is absolutely not capable of shutting down the supply routes. To do that, they'd have to advance 400km, of which the first 100km is through the Pripet marsh, on a front where there are only 3 usable north-south roads. Against an enemy that has at least 5 times the force of the entire Belarusian army in the area.

I think the Belarus stuff is just threats to keep Ukraine from moving forces from those areas to the fighting in the south and east. It’s probably a good opportunity for Ukraine to teach new recruits how to prepare field defences though because I can’t imagine they haven’t been preparing for a possible invasion by Belarus and I suspect possible invasion routes have been strongly fortified.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Icon Of Sin posted:

They may not have a choice, but I think it’s within possibility that they’re unable to pull their troops back out. Their fuel shortages are so bad, logistics so hosed/harassed, etc that they literally cannot move anyone out that’s already there.

The problem I see as well is that these soldiers were already robbing Belarus before The Invasion even happened. So they're going to do it way worse when they're actually truly starving to death. So once again the average Belarusian gets screwed

PharmerBoy
Jul 21, 2008

Can someone who speaks the language give some context on the notes, and maybe explain on why there's a swastika in the middle of that red star?

Staluigi
Jun 22, 2021

Blut posted:

Russia has 15.9 million men aged 18-35. Their war losses would need to hit 500,000 deaths before it started making a demographic dent. Demographics are the least of Russia's war concerns.

Total demographic numbers of military age men inform the upper limits of a country's capacity to acquire soldiers. They have way less than 15 million men who are in any reasonable capacity to serve and even less who are compelled to and already trained to do so.

Shes Not Impressed
Apr 25, 2004


PharmerBoy posted:

Can someone who speaks the language give some context on the notes, and maybe explain on why there's a swastika in the middle of that red star?

It says: Nazis = Russhists

the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

hey! check this out
Fun Shoe

PharmerBoy posted:

Can someone who speaks the language give some context on the notes, and maybe explain on why there's a swastika in the middle of that red star?

Click the tweet, the OP immediately replies to clarify the paper is calling the Russians nazis.

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat
They aren't pulling back because they don't want to pull back. No need to make their situation seem outright catastrophic, like the Russian army is in a state of post apocalyptic chaos. They are moving plenty of material, artillery can't operate on thin air, and daily briefings talk about regular strategic movements from the rear to the frontlines.

Charliegrs
Aug 10, 2009

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

Pulling back now as much as I would love to see it would be enormously embarrassing but if they did... How does Russia even get back into the world economy?

I think that with any country that has been shunned from the world economy the only way they get back in is simply time. Time for the collective memories of people to forget about whatever atrocities were committed. And time enough for corporations to be able to do business with whatever horrible regime without the PR hit. Because capital doesn't give a flying gently caress about human suffering. All the companies that pulled out of Russia didn't do it to show any kind of solidarity with the Ukrainian people, they did it to prevent horrible PR that could hurt their sales in stable countries. They'll be back in Russia the second they can get away with it.

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

PharmerBoy posted:

Can someone who speaks the language give some context on the notes, and maybe explain on why there's a swastika in the middle of that red star?

It is saying that Nazis=Ruscists, the rest of the text is "Soldier! The Moskal has come to take your land, enslave your family and kill you! Kill the Moskal!"

The little signs are softer, like "we are with you" and "may the cigs keep you warm"

BIG FLUFFY DOG
Feb 16, 2011

On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.


fatherboxx posted:

One of the signs says "мрія не горить" - "the dream does not burn", a clear reference to the destroyed giant plane Mria/Dream

Kyiv is a giant city with Russian forces fighting in its northern suburbs only and the missile strikes are not as frequent as in the first days. It is entirely possible for parts of it to work as usual.

a giant plane being a Ukrainian national hero is definitely one of the weirder aspects of a conflict filled with weird aspects.

Doccers
Aug 15, 2000


Patron Saint of Chickencheese

PharmerBoy posted:

Can someone who speaks the language give some context on the notes, and maybe explain on why there's a swastika in the middle of that red star?

lovely machine translation but
"Nazi is Russian"

GOD!!
The Muscovite game
KILL YOU
SEIZE YOURS
LAND TO DO
slaves to your family
KILL the muscovite!"

which sounds like "The russians are coming to kill you, seize your land, and make slaves of your family. Kill them."

Blut
Sep 11, 2009

if someone is in the bottom 10%~ of a guillotine

Staluigi posted:

Total demographic numbers of military age men inform the upper limits of a country's capacity to acquire soldiers. They have way less than 15 million men who are in any reasonable capacity to serve and even less who are compelled to and already trained to do so.

Yes, running out of able/trained soldiers is likely going to be a very real issue for Russia if current casualty rates continue for 3-6 months. But that wasn't the point the post that I quoted made.

A demographic crisis based on war deaths, like the post I quoted suggested was going to be an issue, just is statistically not going to be an issue. The current weekly losses would have to increase by about 1000% for it to become likely.

Shes Not Impressed
Apr 25, 2004


For some context, I was taught by friends in Zakarpattya that Mosckali are not Russians but people like Putin.
I tended to use it to describe the Russian tourists that came to the sanatoriis and acted like poo poo bags on the train also.

You know, insult lingual drift.

Angry_Ed
Mar 30, 2010




Grimey Drawer

Zephro posted:

A couple of stories in the Times and Telegraph have said that Starlink is indeed how.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/specialist-drone-unit-picks-off-invading-forces-as-they-sleep-zlx3dj7bb
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/18/elon-musks-starlink-helping-ukraine-win-drone-war/

It was always clear that Starlink would have military / strategic uses. Now every nation will want one!

And that's when Elon launches the nuclear satellite:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQij3RZpzNc&t=38s

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?


gay picnic defence posted:

I think sanctions would be lifted pretty soon after a full withdrawal and a peace treaty went into force with neutral peacekeeping forces on the ground in Ukraine.

I think the Belarus stuff is just threats to keep Ukraine from moving forces from those areas to the fighting in the south and east. It’s probably a good opportunity for Ukraine to teach new recruits how to prepare field defences though because I can’t imagine they haven’t been preparing for a possible invasion by Belarus and I suspect possible invasion routes have been strongly fortified.

Charliegrs posted:

I think that with any country that has been shunned from the world economy the only way they get back in is simply time. Time for the collective memories of people to forget about whatever atrocities were committed. And time enough for corporations to be able to do business with whatever horrible regime without the PR hit. Because capital doesn't give a flying gently caress about human suffering. All the companies that pulled out of Russia didn't do it to show any kind of solidarity with the Ukrainian people, they did it to prevent horrible PR that could hurt their sales in stable countries. They'll be back in Russia the second they can get away with it.

I can't imagine the world simply letting Russia back in after they've destroyed part of the global economy, displaced millions and killed tens of thousands but I do agree that they won't remained isolated forever.

ummel
Jun 17, 2002

<3 Lowtax

Fun Shoe

Random Integer posted:

I dont rate Nolan Peterson particularly highly on the credibility scale but he is actually there and theres no particular reason to doubt this. Theres a large enough media presence in Kyiv that if it was suffering general food shortages we'd have head about it.

There's a bunch of TikTok footage from markets (Edith of well stocked shelves) and such in Kyiv as well. Of course it could all be a psyop but there's enough of it, I tend to think not.

ummel fucked around with this message at 00:46 on Mar 22, 2022

TulliusCicero
Jul 29, 2017



Deteriorata posted:

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 21

So Russia continues to burn resources doing nothing.

So Russia's huge achievement will be to Grozny/ Stalingrad at Mariupol and possibly lose Kherson in a counter-offensive, while they become a FAAAAAARRRRTTTT of a presence everywhere else in Ukraine?

And all that for the low price of the isolation and destruction of their economy and the utter humilation of their shambling Wish.com military

My, what an amazing 4d chessmaster :rolleyes:

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Blut posted:

Russia has 15.9 million men aged 18-35. Their war losses would need to hit 500,000 deaths before it started making a demographic dent. Demographics are the least of Russia's war concerns.

Vova reads this post and says "hold my vodka, grazhdanin."

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

TulliusCicero posted:

So Russia's huge achievement will be to Grozny/ Stalingrad at Mariupol and possibly lose Kherson in a counter-offensive, while they become a FAAAAAARRRRTTTT of a presence everywhere else in Ukraine?

And all that for the low price of the isolation and destruction of their economy and the utter humilation of their shambling Wish.com military

My, what an amazing 4d chessmaster :rolleyes:

Well actually you see Putin's master plan is to bring back barracks communism.

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

PharmerBoy posted:

Can someone who speaks the language give some context on the notes, and maybe explain on why there's a swastika in the middle of that red star?

Nazi = Russcist (portmanteau of Russian and fascist)

WARRIOR!

The Muscovite came to KILL you, to occupy your land, to turn your relatives into slaves. KILL the Muscovite!

'Drench with evil blood of foemen
Freedom that it thrive'
- Taras Shevchenko, 'My Testament'

Paladinus fucked around with this message at 00:34 on Mar 22, 2022

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

ummel posted:

There's a bunch of TikTok footage from markets and such in Kyiv as well. Of course it could all be a psyop but there's enough of it, I tend to think not.

There seem to be a lot of pictures from three weeks ago of empty shelves due to panic buying when there was actual fear of a siege. I think that has settled down now.

d64
Jan 15, 2003
The latter picture is from a Prisma store, a Finnish chain of supermarkets that is pulling out of Russia. It being empty would more probably be because the store is closing for good and they have just sold whatever was left on the shelves. I doubt there is a big shortage of daily goods in Russia yet.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Finally I get it. Putin's whole goal was a burn the ships style invasion. Too bad he didn't Factor in Ukrainian tractors

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Fragrag posted:

I don't think Google Maps detected the traffic jams due to soldier's phones, but rather civilians who were being affected by military movements due to intersections being closed off or routes being shut down

Fair enough, that could’ve also been the case.

Shes Not Impressed posted:

Not going to hold my breath, but Biden is heading over this week to Europe .
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1506014223108907010?s=20&t=sCvxGH37t41N6neZi3_d2w

Poland meeting is on Friday, I think.

Shes Not Impressed
Apr 25, 2004


Paladinus posted:

'Drench with evil blood of foemen
Freedom that it thrive'
- Taras Shevchenko, 'My Testament'

For those unfamiliar with Schevchenko and Zapovid, you can read a bunch of translations here:
https://tarnawsky.artsci.utoronto.ca/courses/468/Zapovit-comparison.pdf

Often Abbreviated
Dec 19, 2017

1st Severia Tank Brigade
"Ghosts of Honcharivske"

Charliegrs posted:

I think that with any country that has been shunned from the world economy the only way they get back in is simply time. Time for the collective memories of people to forget about whatever atrocities were committed. And time enough for corporations to be able to do business with whatever horrible regime without the PR hit. Because capital doesn't give a flying gently caress about human suffering. All the companies that pulled out of Russia didn't do it to show any kind of solidarity with the Ukrainian people, they did it to prevent horrible PR that could hurt their sales in stable countries. They'll be back in Russia the second they can get away with it.

Capital may not care about human suffering but it protects itself absolutely. Russia is not on the side of capital. It produces no return on investment. A kleptocratic mafia state seizing a massive growth area of productive investments so they can be distributed back to the court of declining feudal strongman does not align with number. The sanctions have been so far beyond what anyone thought likely or possible because this war has challenged the liberal capitalist world order - it's a war against capital as much as it's against the homonazis. Russia has challenged the very forces of nature, and it must atone.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Well that's a pretty amazing thing. Especially if you craine can start creeping their air cover closer to dnipr

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Pavlov
Oct 21, 2012

I've long been fascinated with how the alt-right develops elaborate and obscure dog whistles to try to communicate their meaning without having to say it out loud
Stepan Andreyevich Bandera being the most prominent example of that

Blut posted:

Russia has 15.9 million men aged 18-35. Their war losses would need to hit 500,000 deaths before it started making a demographic dent. Demographics are the least of Russia's war concerns.

By the end of this, it would not surprise me if the combined total of casualties and people fleeing the country was over 500k.

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