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PerilPastry posted:Russia, as expected, is saying a peacekeeping force is a reckless idea which would lead to a direct conflict between NATO and Russia Is Poland likely to still send a peace keeping mission if NATO tells them that it's a terrible idea?
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Mar 23, 2022 13:31
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Alchenar posted:NATO's entire response force constitutes around 40k troops: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_49755.htm. That's the stuff that would be guaranteed to be ready to show up one day one of a war. If there were a serious risk of a war with Russia then you would expect countries to be scrambling to have additional forces ready to deploy as soon as possible, but even if you doubled that then there would still be a serious problem of mass if the Russians put up their 200k field army to push West. Almost certainly one of the reasons Ukraine is still in the fight is because they've mobilised the numbers to be able to stand in the line against the Russians and take even or potentially even higher losses than them and not fall apart. That is what we call a Milchmädchenrechnung. Any kind of pre-invasion military buildup would be countered by EU and NATO armies. You can't just surprise invade someone. NATO response forces aren't going to defend against a large conventional war. The Franco-German alliance alone has ~400 000 active personnel.
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Mar 23, 2022 13:32
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Tuna-Fish posted:No. The triumphalist essay they accidentally pushed out at day two made it very loving clear that subjugating Ukraine was at that point their only goal. Yeah why do people keep trying to re-write recent events to make the Russian military seem way less staggeringly incompetent than they really were/ are? They tried to "decapitate" Kyiv on the first day and failed miserably. Their stated goal since the beginning was deposing Ukraine's government. Putin said Ukraine was a "Leninist plot" to the whole loving world. They are just stupid, huffing their own farts, and grossly incompetent. Why is this so hard for some people to grasp? 
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Mar 23, 2022 13:32
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Mr. Apollo posted:Last week, a reporter from another major Canadian newspaper, The Globe and Mail, was posting screenshots from a bunch of the Trucker Convoy WhatsApp and Telegram channels. They were all filled with pro-Russian/pro-Putin propaganda. A lot of it was pretty anti-Semitic too. The reporter said that the anti-vax messaging channels had almost instantly turned to anti-Ukrainian messaging as soon as the war began. The anti-Semitic stuff is surprising to me in how brazen it's gotten. You've got Breadtube leftists who believe every Ukrainian is a seig-heiling blood drinking neo-nazi reposting memes of star-of-David wearing hook-nosed Jews mind controlling the noble slavs to fight one another and no-one seems to mind.
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Mar 23, 2022 13:33
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PerilPastry posted:Russia, as expected, is saying a peacekeeping force is a reckless idea which would lead to a direct conflict between NATO and Russia Its kind of hilarious that he thinks that's a threat given how they cannot handle even Ukraine.
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Mar 23, 2022 13:35
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https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1506585712493273093 Throwing firebombs at the Kremlin wall is praxis.
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Mar 23, 2022 13:36
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TulliusCicero posted:Yeah why do people keep trying to re-write recent events to make the Russian military seem way less staggeringly incompetent than they really were/ are? Because how do you keep controls over such a large country if you're this dumb?  Simple as that, I also don't believe that they are stupid or crazy. Just underestimated the enemy and overestimated the morale of their own troops.
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Mar 23, 2022 13:37
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ummel posted:https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1506585712493273093 looks extremely fake
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Mar 23, 2022 13:38
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PerilPastry posted:Do we know anything about the state of Ukraine's mobilization efforts? I read that they were giving conscripts 3 weeks of training so we should start seeing them appearing in the field about now, right? Not much. All we really know is: a) Pre-war army strength is 200k, 'live' reserves being another 200k. b) They've hit the button on full mobilisation. Note that doesn't mean literally everyone is getting handed a rifle and a bayonet, armies need plenty of drivers etc. But it does mean that in principle that entire ~11m male population in the service age bracket can be called on to support the war effort in whatever way required. c) They are training and filtering. Earlier in the thread a goon posted about their friend with eyesight problems who got rejected as unsuitable for service and managed to subsequently get out via the Poland border. d) Just as a practical matter: there will be a limit to the number of people they can give refresher training and equip at a time. So really light on detail but from what we have seen it seems that after the initial panic wore off and it became clear that the immediate danger of collapse had passed that they've settled into a process that's going to produce a stream of trained reserves... for probably as long as they need to. As long as the stream of arms coming from the West doesn't let up they could settle into a mobilisation rhythm that routinely replaces the losses they've taken in terms of people. Antigravitas posted:That is what we call a Milchmädchenrechnung. And the Russian army has 900,000 personnel. Headcount is not the same thing as deployable troops. Alchenar fucked around with this message at 13:45 on Mar 23, 2022 |
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Mar 23, 2022 13:40
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Cimber posted:Sitting safely under America's nuclear umbrella for the past 50 years does tend to make the smaller countries not want to put a lot of money into defense. Funnily enough, the smaller countries tend to be top spenders by GDP, because we don’t have the clout of Germany or Italy or what have you. PerilPastry posted:Do we know anything about the state of Ukraine's mobilization efforts? Nothing past its start date.
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Mar 23, 2022 13:45
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Mr. Apollo posted:Probably surprising to no one here, but one of the major newspapers in Canada, the Toronto Star conducted a poll asking people if Russia's invasion of Ukraine was justified. The responses were broken down by vaccination status. I've suspected for a while that a lot of antivax disinformation was being pushed by Russia. Antivaxers were plugged into Russian disinfo channels and are extremely credulous to boot so not surprising that they made the pivot to being anti-ukraine. Plus the war stole all the attention they were getting over their little tantrum.
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Mar 23, 2022 13:46
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mobby_6kl posted:As for drones, there are some commercial solutions including microwaves (IIRC) and bigger drones with nets. How effective they would be against military tech, I don't know. A dude with an AK could probably shoot one down too if it's close enough. Ynglaur posted:The Russian optics cope is hilarous. When the US began fielding optics across the force in the mid-2000s, Iraqi insurgents began reporting that the US was summarily executing Iraqis due the number of headshots. They eased up on those reports when they realized what it was. I.e. It wasn't the insurgents using propagda, they just understandably thought that such accuracy in a firefight was uncanny. It is.
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Mar 23, 2022 13:47
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Are Russian state tv sites blocked inside the EU? I remember the EU removed the TV channel licenses but don't remember that it was supposed to include internet sites. Also, not every state TV channel site is blocked for me, only some.
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Mar 23, 2022 13:50
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Alchenar posted:Not much. All we really know is: Yeah there was a paywalled article just a day ago in Aftonbladet (Swedish mainstream media newspaper) with an interesting interview with a Finnish ex-military who is volunteering to train Ukranaian recruits. The takeaway is that they have more volunteers than they have the resources to train currently, and that they're taking care to train the recruits before sending them to the front, and of course that he saw very strong connections between this war and the Winter War. Ukraine having more volunteers than they have training capacity fits with the stories we're hearing of international volunteers being rejected.
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Mar 23, 2022 13:51
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Willo567 posted:Is Poland likely to still send a peace keeping mission if NATO tells them that it's a terrible idea? Consensus ITT seems to be that their politicians are mostly playing to a large domestic audience who hate Russia. I can't imagine Poland and the Baltics pulling such a move unilaterally which is what they'd be doing. And in such a hypothetical they'd be entering the conflict of their own accord so it's not like they could invoke article 5. Ignore the rest of this as it's an opinion piece by Niall Ferguson but this basically confirms that the Biden admin has a firm policy not to have this war spread beyond Ukraine, which, of course, matches their public position too: "According to Sanger, who cannot have written his piece without high-level sources, the Biden administration “seeks to help Ukraine lock Russia in a quagmire without inciting a broader conflict with a nuclear-armed adversary or cutting off potential paths to de-escalation …" https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-03-22/niall-ferguson-putin-and-biden-misunderstand-history-in-ukraine-war?sref=xzGl1Vcx And clearly there's no wider appetite in the EU for escalation either https://twitter.com/Bundeskanzler/status/1506604471148756998?s=20&t=svfJ4wroztcLm13cDjXF1w Alchenar posted:Not much. All we really know is:
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Mar 23, 2022 13:51
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mobby_6kl posted:Poland obviously could be the other exception but I've no idea what their state actually is nowadays. At least they were in the coalition of the willing to test some stuff out I suppose. 144k troops, about 80% contract soldiers, rest being national guard units. The main issue would be complete absence of medium and long range SAM units, so actually valuable stuff that's mostly around Warsaw and further west would be bombed to poo poo. Would probably depend on how fast German/US hardware could be rebased to Vistula line. Also when poo poo really hits the fan way fewer reserves to quickly call. I don't think Poland even has big enough amount of stored rifles and ammo, unless somehow someone recently ordered a couple trains worth of 7.62x39 for that million AKMs in storage.
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Mar 23, 2022 13:51
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HappyHippo posted:I've suspected for a while that a lot of antivax disinformation was being pushed by Russia. Antivaxers were plugged into Russian disinfo channels and are extremely credulous to boot so not surprising that they made the pivot to being anti-ukraine. Plus the war stole all the attention they were getting over their little tantrum. Also telegram being the main source of conspiracy material is still widely used in Russia, I guess?
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Mar 23, 2022 13:51
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GABA ghoul posted:Are Russian state tv sites blocked inside the EU? I remember the EU removed the TV channel licenses but don't remember that it was supposed to include internet sites. Also, not every state TV channel site is blocked for me, only some. Yes. RT doesn't even turn up if I google it: On 27 February, the president of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen announced the European Union would ban RT and Sputnik (plus their subsidiaries) from operating in its 27 member countries.[295] The ban resulted in RT being blocked on downstream television networks located outside EU, such as the United Kingdom and Singapore as they were dependent on European companies for the signal feed to RT.[380][381] On 27 February, Canadian telecom companies Shaw, Rogers, Bell and Telus announced they would no longer offer RT in their channel lineups.[382] This move was praised by Canada's Minister of Canadian Heritage Pablo Rodriguez who called the network the "propaganda arm" of Vladimir Putin.[383] On 28 February, Ofcom announced they had opened 15 expedited investigations into RT.[384] These investigations will be focused on the 15 news editions broadcast on 27 February between 05:00 and 19:00 and will check if the coverage broke impartiality requirements in the broadcast code.[385] On 2 March, the regulation was published which meant the ban was in force.[386] RT English Homepage screengrab on 11 March 2022 Facebook, Instagram, and TikTok made RT's and Sputnik's social media content unavailable to users in the European Union on 28 February.[387][388] Microsoft removed RT and Sputnik from MSN, the Microsoft Store, and the Microsoft Advertising network on the same day.[389] YouTube, on 1 March, banned access to all RT and Sputnik channels on its platform in Europe (including Britain).[b][9][377] Apple followed by removing RT and Sputnik from its App Store in all countries except Russia.[390] Roku dropped the RT app from its channel store,[391] while DirecTV pulled RT America from its channel lineup.[392] New Zealand satellite television provider Sky also removed RT, citing complaints from customers and consultation with the Broadcasting Standards Authority.[393] Reddit blocked new outgoing links to RT and Sputnik on 3 March.[394] On 11 March, YouTube blocked RT and Sputnik worldwide.[395] lilljonas fucked around with this message at 13:56 on Mar 23, 2022 |
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Mar 23, 2022 13:53
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Took em long enough https://twitter.com/AlexandruC4/status/1506578170048245761?s=20&t=BXzIhGN8uxdKrQUIHaVHtA
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Mar 23, 2022 13:55
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lilljonas posted:Yes: This doesn't mention blocking of internet sites though. If there is actually an internet filter in place, why is it applied inconsistently? I can watch Russian propaganda on ntv.ru but 1tv.ru is unreachable for me.
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Mar 23, 2022 13:58
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Pictures from Mariupol https://twitter.com/DavidCornDC/status/1506613217199599621?t=fw9vTOnafGkeWc_Vj_L9jA&s=19
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Mar 23, 2022 13:59
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GABA ghoul posted:Are Russian state tv sites blocked inside the EU? I remember the EU removed the TV channel licenses but don't remember that it was supposed to include internet sites. Also, not every state TV channel site is blocked for me, only some. Governments have been doing their own bans in addition to the EU-mandated ban on RT and Sputnik. Latvia has banned dozens of TV channels and news websites, for instance. Even kremlin.ru is banned.
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Mar 23, 2022 14:00
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TulliusCicero posted:Yeah why do people keep trying to re-write recent events to make the Russian military seem way less staggeringly incompetent than they really were/ are? Alchenar posted:Not much. All we really know is: alex314 posted:144k troops, about 80% contract soldiers, rest being national guard units. The main issue would be complete absence of medium and long range SAM units, so actually valuable stuff that's mostly around Warsaw and further west would be bombed to poo poo. Would probably depend on how fast German/US hardware could be rebased to Vistula line. Also when poo poo really hits the fan way fewer reserves to quickly call. I don't think Poland even has big enough amount of stored rifles and ammo, unless somehow someone recently ordered a couple trains worth of 7.62x39 for that million AKMs in storage. 
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Mar 23, 2022 14:01
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lilljonas posted:Yeah there was a paywalled article just a day ago in Aftonbladet (Swedish mainstream media newspaper) with an interesting interview with a Finnish ex-military who is volunteering to train Ukranaian recruits. The takeaway is that they have more volunteers than they have the resources to train currently, and that they're taking care to train the recruits before sending them to the front, and of course that he saw very strong connections between this war and the Winter War. I imagine that it also means a fair number of international volunteers with actual useful military backgrounds won't be sent to the front and instead will help serving as instructors.
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Mar 23, 2022 14:01
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Econ post - looks like Russia is exploring other ways to prop up their currency https://twitter.com/NoYardstick/status/1506616306979770377?s=20&t=KbrMJeQTdIUY8TIiupQeYQ This would entail western entities having to buy large quantities of rubles which would help prop up the exchange rate, right? I'm not a finance whiz beyond low level stuff. But as mentioned it's likely outside the contract to require this Also cracks in the government continue. Chubais - Putin's first boss, apparently - flees. https://twitter.com/yaffaesque/status/1506615648176283649?s=20&t=KbrMJeQTdIUY8TIiupQeYQ He's apparently already in Turkey. This has been confirmed by multiple Russian sources as well.
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Mar 23, 2022 14:03
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Mokotow posted:Took em long enough Just sharing some text from the Reuters story for more details: https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/reuters-removes-tass-russian-news-agency-its-content-marketplace-2022-03-23/ quote:The Russian news agency has been accused by some Western media and press freedom groups of spreading false claims and propaganda about the war in Ukraine.Since the invasion, tech giants Google, Facebook and Twitter and pay TV services have restricted access to Russia state-owned media RT and Sputnik over concerns about spreading misinformation. RT and Sputnik have called restrictions placed on them by distributors, which include app stores and other social media services, unjustified censorship.
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Mar 23, 2022 14:03
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Governments have been doing their own bans in addition to the EU-mandated ban on RT and Sputnik. Latvia has banned dozens of TV channels and news websites, for instance. Even kremlin.ru is banned. Thanks, that probably explains it. I have only been googling for EU wide measures.
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Mar 23, 2022 14:03
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 My smartwatch measures deep sleep duration in Russcist units. 
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Mar 23, 2022 14:03
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Mokotow posted:Took em long enough I can't wait to hear how those insane ramblings about American biolabs or crisis actors in the bombed maternity hospital were actual credible news (unlike those fake news from the evil western media) and also something about free speech.
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Mar 23, 2022 14:04
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GABA ghoul posted:This doesn't mention blocking of internet sites though. If there is actually an internet filter in place, why is it applied inconsistently? I can watch Russian propaganda on ntv.ru but 1tv.ru is unreachable for me. Dunno, checked now and both ntv.ru and https://www.1tv.com/live loads. But RT won't load. lilljonas fucked around with this message at 14:07 on Mar 23, 2022 |
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Mar 23, 2022 14:05
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lilljonas posted:Dunno, checked now and both ntv.ru and https://www.1tv.com/live loads. Yeah, looks like Germany nuked 1tv.ru. What country are you in?
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Mar 23, 2022 14:06
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GABA ghoul posted:Yeah, looks like Germany nuked 1tv.ru. What country are you in? Sweden. 1tv.ru wouldn't load, but after a while it automatically redirected me to 1tv.com/live instead.
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Mar 23, 2022 14:08
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mobby_6kl posted:drat, how are SAMs still an issue? You'd think this would be a key part for anti-russia defense. Or did the existing stuff actually get sent to ukraine? NATO air doctrine mostly focuses on using planes to shoot down planes. Not that there isn't need to have ground based AA, just that there is advantage to having say F-22s that can be deployed anywhere in the world in a matter of hours to days over ground based systems that have to be transported rather than flying. Those hours/ days until reinforcements arrive could be rough though.
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Mar 23, 2022 14:08
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KitConstantine posted:Econ post - looks like Russia is exploring other ways to prop up their currency Yes, this is a big deal. It effectively requires the buyer to have an account with a Russian bank, either directly or through an intermediary. In order to buy the rubles for that account, the buyer has to make a currency trade with a Russian counterpart (again directly or through a liquidity provider). Russia is also messing with the holy petrodollar by doing this, which will piss of a lot of people who were mostly in this for populist / PR reasons so far. I suspect the buyers will just refuse to do this and continue to pay as before. Well, maybe not the Netherlands.
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Mar 23, 2022 14:11
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GABA ghoul posted:Yeah, looks like Germany nuked 1tv.ru. What country are you in? Germany has no infrastructure to do that. ISPs have in the past screwed around with DNS due to law suits from the copyright mafia, but that's it.
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Mar 23, 2022 14:17
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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:Pictures from Mariupol I think urban combat is going to be a nightmare. 
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Mar 23, 2022 14:17
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GABA ghoul posted:Are Russian state tv sites blocked inside the EU? I remember the EU removed the TV channel licenses but don't remember that it was supposed to include internet sites. Also, not every state TV channel site is blocked for me, only some. Interesting question, at the start of the invasion I checked for the first time if we had Rtv here in Belgium. We did, it was playing an interview with rudy giuliani by a scantily clad female russian journalist on a loop. It made me think about the borat thing. It was all about Bidens son and Ukraine. I wonder if it's still up.
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Mar 23, 2022 14:18
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Stoltenberg presser ongoing https://twitter.com/jensstoltenberg/status/1506614785806323723?s=20&t=hAUIUP0t-ELBSuskUxvfyw Key points so far: - Deploying additional NATO forces to eastern Allies as a defensive measure. Four battle groups apparently. Credible deterrence and defense needed. Implies Allied nations need to be prepared to step their contribution up in terms of investment - NATO support to Ukraine to continue; cyber security and protections against chemical/biological warfare mentioned -Emphasizes NATO has responsibility the war does not escalate beyond Ukraine as that would cause even more death and suffering. - Nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought. Points out Russia has repeatedly agreed with this in the past so the saber rattling is unhelpful - NATO membership not on the agenda
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Mar 23, 2022 14:23
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Econ post 2 because I didn't see this earlier - this will help supply chain issues with existing container shortages, right? Right? https://twitter.com/noahbarkin/status/1506563176736989207?s=20&t=KbrMJeQTdIUY8TIiupQeYQ Though Maersk is apparently fully pulling out of Russia so that's a lot of ships freed up! Article: https://trans.info/en/russia-maersk-281292 quote:The move represents a full departure from the sanctions-hit country. Maersk has stopped accepting new bookings on all of its services (both, sea, air and land transport) to and from Russia. The company has also decided to sell all of its assets in Russia following its annual meeting of shareholders.
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Mar 23, 2022 14:24
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1tv.ru is dead here in the UK too - DNS resolves and it's pingable but rejected if you try and access on HTTP.
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