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 for armor and likely soldiers getting blown up, but video is from far awayLooks like the Ukrainians are using the Bayraktar as an artillery spotter as well, and it's making for very accurate strikes - video in the linked tweet. I haven't seen video of this use for the drone yet so I thought it was noteworthy https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1506634252473049095?s=20&t=_08TQX2pI75ze7qtZZEpZw Seems to work better than shooting blindly at buildings but I'm not a Russian strategist Also hadn't seen this one yet either - the Ukrainains got another commander - Colonel not General - and it seems to confirm the Russians are using the Marines for the assault on Mariupol. https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1506609939665592328?s=20&t=Vkm-fXAVGfiXUQ-1H_PXSQ
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Mar 23, 2022 15:18
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Bloomberg: Putin Adviser Chubais Quits Over Ukraine War and Leaves Russia https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1506604722744172546 https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1506632196798525453 Mr. Fall Down Terror posted:it isn't an escalation any more than using thermobarics or cluster munitions OctaMurk posted:It's awful, but not an escalation. Plenty of countries use white phosphorus or incendiary weapons. Well, that's how I as a layperson would describe it, but yeah, not the best wording of it considering those facts. It's another war crime added to the list at the very least.
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Mar 23, 2022 15:21
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Saoshyant posted:https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1506468626483879938 There is no indication Lukashenko promised anything more than providing the territory to launch the offensive on Kyiv, and Belarusian hospitals for Russian soldiers.
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Mar 23, 2022 15:24
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Saoshyant posted:Well, that's how I as a layperson would describe it, but yeah, not the best wording of it considering those facts. It's another war crime added to the list at the very least. if there were footage of a russian soldier throwing a smoke grenade into a bunker while shouting something like "i am using the toxic, choking effects of this smoke on you civilians, to drive you from this bunker in which there are no legally recognized combatants" then it might be a war crime otherwise its just another entry on the list of morally indefensible things that have happened during this morally indefensible war
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Mar 23, 2022 15:25
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Morrow posted:He's a former official in the Donetsk Separatists who got pushed out, and provides a pro-Russian critique of the invasion. not just any official, iirc he was one of the top people in LDNR's military. he's also a veteran of Chechnya and a bunch of other conflicts and allegedly served in the FSB for 10+ years. he's also a weirdo monarchist
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Mar 23, 2022 15:26
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Zephro posted:Russia's biggest mistake was underestimating Ukraine and treating the war as something that would be over in 4 days with a victory parade in Maidan square. If they knew they were going to be fighting the British or French they wouldn't make that mistake. So I don't think this is true. I’m guessing at some level the invade the totality of Ukraine plan was a very last minute call. Russian military command probably was operating under the assumption they’d be playing back up to the breakaways for a land grab of crimea and a demonstration of how little leverage Ukraine actually had wrt NATO membership. Instead I’m guessing Putin decided to Leroy Jenkins Kyiv at the 11th hour and here we are.
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Mar 23, 2022 15:28
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eke out posted:He is arguably the premiere separatist war criminal, likely one of the people who directly shot down Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 Morrow posted:He's a former official in the Donetsk Separatists who got pushed out, and provides a pro-Russian critique of the invasion. Ah, I guess that explains his “Russia needs to do more to win this, damnit!” attitude. Given that he got pushed out of his job, does he have any real pull anywhere? Either way interesting to see that even someone well on Russia’s side is deeply bearish about events in Mariupol.
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Mar 23, 2022 15:29
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Saoshyant posted:Well, that's how I as a layperson would describe it, but yeah, not the best wording of it considering those facts. It's another war crime added to the list at the very least. The internet has been trying really hard for the last 20 years or so to convince everyone that white phosphorus is a chemical weapon and its use is inherently a war crime. It is not. It's an incendiary and has legitimate wartime usages. Use against civilians is a war crime, but so are a lot of other things when used against civilians.
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Mar 23, 2022 15:29
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deathbysnusnu posted:I’m guessing at some level the invade the totality of Ukraine plan was a very last minute call. Russian military command probably was operating under the assumption they’d be playing back up to the breakaways for a land grab of crimea and a demonstration of how little leverage Ukraine actually had wrt NATO membership. Instead I’m guessing Putin decided to Leroy Jenkins Kyiv at the 11th hour and here we are. it was clearly not a last-minute call but clearly most people weren't told until the last minute
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Mar 23, 2022 15:29
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yeah you don't mass all those troops near Kyiv as part of your Seize Donbas plan just for shits and giggles.
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Mar 23, 2022 15:30
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Deteriorata posted:The internet has been trying really hard for the last 20 years or so to convince everyone that white phosphorus is a chemical weapon and its use is inherently a war crime. Yeah, its this. In the long run, there's much bigger war crimes Russia has been caught doing. White Phosphorus use is concerning, but its just another in a long line of Russian shady conduct.
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Mar 23, 2022 15:31
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Geolocations of the shore defense missiles earlier - fired from Crimea https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1506636785836830726?s=20&t=UelRrjebzLl_fzyTyKWtNg The Russian military also released their own video of the Kaliber launch from late on the 21st https://twitter.com/GrangerE04117/status/1506573345231310850?s=20&t=juLK4kkBdKXz5tDm749psQ Also from Crimea
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Mar 23, 2022 15:31
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Hm, it looks like more and more AA hardware is being moved to Lithuania. Now there's apparently an Ozelot system being moved there. I wonder if I should make a bike trip to Eckernförde and count the subs 
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Mar 23, 2022 15:35
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TheDeadlyShoe posted:yeah you don't mass all those troops near Kyiv as part of your Seize Donbas plan just for shits and giggles. Putting a giant army that could menace your capital is excellent leverage to convince Ukraine to recognize the defacto situation on paper. The total lack of coordination could be pretty neatly explained by the Russian troops in the field not realizing the war was actually going to happen full force.
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Mar 23, 2022 15:36
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Deteriorata posted:The internet has been trying really hard for the last 20 years or so to convince everyone that white phosphorus is a chemical weapon and its use is inherently a war crime. Thanks for explaining it. I was part of the "convinced" and had no idea WP could have legitimate usages when not used against civilians. I imagine if they had used it against civilians there would be pictures everywhere.
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Mar 23, 2022 15:37
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deathbysnusnu posted:Putting a giant army that could menace your capital is excellent leverage to convince Ukraine to recognize the defacto situation on paper. The total lack of coordination could be pretty neatly explained by the Russian troops in the field not realizing the war was actually going to happen full force. It will be interesting once the propaganda can be separated from the truth whether there's validity to the "we were told to drive and before we realised it we were in Ukraine" claims from non-officers.
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Mar 23, 2022 15:42
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TheDeadlyShoe posted:yeah you don't mass all those troops near Kyiv as part of your Seize Donbas plan just for shits and giggles. You also don't accidentally release op-eds across your domestic media outlets discussing how and why you just victoriously ended the Ukrainian problem through annexation as part of your Seize Donbass plan.
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Mar 23, 2022 15:51
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Tomn posted:Ah, I guess that explains his “Russia needs to do more to win this, damnit!” attitude. Given that he got pushed out of his job, does he have any real pull anywhere? Either way interesting to see that even someone well on Russia’s side is deeply bearish about events in Mariupol. His only "pull" is that he was not gruesomely terminated like many other separatist field commanders did so he is permitted to spend his days as an armchair general now Lmao at mobilization, yeah, thats a sure way to torpedo the public support for war 
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Mar 23, 2022 15:53
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Tesseraction posted:It will be interesting once the propaganda can be separated from the truth whether there's validity to the "we were told to drive and before we realised it we were in Ukraine" claims from non-officers.
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Mar 23, 2022 15:58
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Deteriorata posted:The internet has been trying really hard for the last 20 years or so to convince everyone that white phosphorus is a chemical weapon and its use is inherently a war crime. excuse me but i think willie pete is the proper term
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Mar 23, 2022 16:00
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fatherboxx posted:His only "pull" is that he was not gruesomely terminated like many other separatist field commanders did so he is permitted to spend his days as an armchair general now Judging by the shambolic state of the propaganda for this war that the Russian state has been putting out they might not give a poo poo. Long but good thread about how Russia could turn around their war support propaganda operation - the poster translates Russian propaganda for a living, essentially https://twitter.com/irgarner/status/1506614138839179269?s=20&t=UelRrjebzLl_fzyTyKWtNg Summarizing - basically Russia needs to start doing 5 things: 1. Admit there's actually a war on - hard to get people riled up to support a 'special operation' 2. Start emphasizing the real actions of individual soldiers. Easier to root *for* your guys than *against* the other 3. Tying into 2 - start creating martyrs. The myth of the heroic martyr is central to Russian war stories going back a long time, and this is an important theme to tap into 4. Stop focusing on abstract threats like 'NATO' and 'fifth columnists' - these are a distraction and normal people don't give a poo poo 5. Putin needs to keep his face on TV - he does have a lot of personal popularity in Russia - and talk about these heroic soldiers and actions and quit ranting about nonsense people don't care about However here's the kicker - https://twitter.com/irgarner/status/1506616070647468033?s=20&t=UelRrjebzLl_fzyTyKWtNg The Russian government might not care about having the country behind them. They may just want to activate the worst of the base to terrorize everyone else into submission. Edit: Also Riddle Russia put out an article on why the Z campaign isn't really connecting with people in Russia -https://ridl.io/en/what-does-the-russian-war-z-stand-for/ KitConstantine fucked around with this message at 16:14 on Mar 23, 2022 |
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Mar 23, 2022 16:11
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KitConstantine posted:Judging by the shambolic state of the propaganda for this war that the Russian state has been putting out they might not give a poo poo. Long but good thread about how Russia could turn around their war support propaganda operation - the poster translates Russian propaganda for a living, essentially Sounds like another Russian revolution might be brewing up then.
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Mar 23, 2022 16:13
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Kraftwerk posted:Sounds like another Russian revolution might be brewing up then. I don't think so. It seems like the population that doesn't rabidly support the government is trying to keep their head down and get through rather than foment revolution right now. But as sanctions begin to bite more that could always change
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Mar 23, 2022 16:20
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SrTrpwzVt4g Cool video detailing some of the less obvious ways the Russian civilian aviation industry is getting killed by sanctions.
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Mar 23, 2022 16:24
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KitConstantine posted:I don't think so. It seems like the population that doesn't rabidly support the government is trying to keep their head down and get through rather than foment revolution right now. Which is actually what Putin usually prefers, anyway. People who actively support things may want them done differently than how he would choose --- see the aforementioned "Strelkov" that was quoted above for an example. A public that's passive is a public that doesn't threaten his power. To me, the extent of repressions on independent media makes it clear that the regime believes that if the public saw the true face of the war they would want to be against it, and in that sense the propaganda seems to be working just fine.
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Mar 23, 2022 16:26
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https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1506616869712769038?s=20&t=8AM0GnKODvfY4YwLnSP6iw They were hacked yesterday, too - 10GB data leaked. No imports or exports, no taxes to be paid in Russia. Russian profits to be donated.
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Mar 23, 2022 16:27
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KitConstantine posted:Judging by the shambolic state of the propaganda for this war that the Russian state has been putting out they might not give a poo poo. Long but good thread about how Russia could turn around their war support propaganda operation - the poster translates Russian propaganda for a living, essentially Sounds like Putin is putting his US plans into action on Russia. An overt Fascist state is probably a foregone conclusion.
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Mar 23, 2022 16:27
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Is there a good synopsis of Belarus’ political relationship with Russia? I got the impression that it was a puppet state, but refusing to invade Ukraine would indicate e otherwise?
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Mar 23, 2022 16:29
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Putin’s situation seems to be like Salazar in Portugal, relies more on demobilizing everyone than encouraging a mass movement. You can see videos of people supporting the special operation being arrested for talking to reporters about their support. Goal is just to make everyone shut up and leave politics to the professionals.
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Mar 23, 2022 16:32
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Crackbone posted:Is there a good synopsis of Belarus’ political relationship with Russia? I got the impression that it was a puppet state, but refusing to invade Ukraine would indicate e otherwise? You can have a puppet state and still have problems pushing the leader of that puppet state into risking death for an invasion that's not in his own material interest. This might be a good summary... https://www.npr.org/2022/03/11/1085548867/belarus-ukraine-russia-invasion-lukashenko-putin
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Mar 23, 2022 16:32
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Crackbone posted:Is there a good synopsis of Belarus’ political relationship with Russia? I got the impression that it was a puppet state, but refusing to invade Ukraine would indicate e otherwise? It's a puppet state, but the puppet is dangling over a fire and has already been singed once, so it's not eager to dance in the flames again. More plainly, the russian toady in charge is a fingernail away from having another revolt/coup attempt and no one wants to go to war with Ukraine, so he's been making obsequious noises to Putin while dragging his feet as much as possible into actually doing anything beyond letting Russians base from Belarus.
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Mar 23, 2022 16:33
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Mr. Fall Down Terror posted:if there were footage of a russian soldier throwing a smoke grenade into a bunker while shouting something like "i am using the toxic, choking effects of this smoke on you civilians, to drive you from this bunker in which there are no legally recognized combatants" then it might be a war crime The burden of proof is on the Russian Army. You cannot just bomb hospitals—a repeated pattern of behavior going back to Syria—for example and then say, “Azov was in there, we aren’t guilty.” Honestly, you act as if the Wehrmacht ought to be let off for the majority of their war crimes because they did not announce “we are intentionally committing war crimes against civilians.” That’s not how that works at all. In fact, officers were found guilty and executed from both Japan and Germany for crimes their soldiers committed even though those officers had issued paper orders of “don’t commit war crimes” to cover their rear end after the war.
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Mar 23, 2022 16:34
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Crackbone posted:Is there a good synopsis of Belarus’ political relationship with Russia? I got the impression that it was a puppet state, but refusing to invade Ukraine would indicate e otherwise? Lukashenka has been around longer than Putin (since 94!). While he was always Russia-friendly he was generally independent enough to do his own thing, and in 2014 even played intermediary between Russia and Ukraine, having good relations with both. However, in 2020 he clearly blatantly stole the election and repressed protests against that brutally, which drove him much closer into Russia's corner and limited his flexibility.
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Mar 23, 2022 16:34
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Mokotow posted:https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1506616869712769038?s=20&t=8AM0GnKODvfY4YwLnSP6iw
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Mar 23, 2022 16:36
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Crackbone posted:Is there a good synopsis of Belarus’ political relationship with Russia? I got the impression that it was a puppet state, but refusing to invade Ukraine would indicate e otherwise? It is a puppet state; however, even puppet states have their own leadership with their own interests that in extreme circumstances override their obedience to their masters. Hungary during the Second World War comes to mind when the government tries to withdraw from the war when Soviet soldiers showed up in Hungary. This resulted in Hitler and the Wehrmacht couping their own puppet. Edit Essentially, Lukashenko can see—Russia is losing and will lose this war. His own hold on power is already very brittle, the war is extremely unpopular with his people (and military), and he understands that with the Russian Armed Forces tied up getting their teeth kicked in by Ukraine, Putin is in no position to use Russian power to help Lukashenko retain power in Belarus if Belarusian intervention in the war starts to make Lukashenko’s house of cards collapse. ZombieLenin fucked around with this message at 16:54 on Mar 23, 2022 |
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Mar 23, 2022 16:40
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SlowBloke posted:They are blocked at DNS level, meaning if you set up cloudflare dns on your computer you can go to RT, sputnik or whatever you like. Not sure about others, but Latvia is blocking HTTP traffic explicitly. DekeThornton posted:Does Russia have enough troops in Belarus to effectivly counter a military coup hostile to Russian Interests? Even if the Belarussian army is supposedlyt rather awful I can't imagine Russia being all that excited about opening up a second front. Good questions. They have a large headcount there, but it may be just chefs and such - though also some real bases, iirc. In any case, anti-Russian military attack by Belarus army is a rather out there thing. Saoshyant posted:Reports that white phosphorus has allegedly been used in Hostomel and Irpin (no images/video): Way too sensational to take in without evidence. Tomn posted:For those of us who weren’t following the EE thread prior to the war, who is Igor Girkin and why is he writing from a Russian perspective while delivering news that I can’t imagine Putin would be at all happy to see spread? Russian Spetsnaz guy who 1) did a bunch of war crimes in Balkan and Chechen wars 2) led the annexation of Crimea on the ground, taking Crimean Parliament hostage amongst other things 3) is one of “founding fathers” of LDNR 4) likely called the shots on MH17. Actual Clancy-tier Russian piece of poo poo, who also happens to be genuine monarchist. He fell out with Kremlin a number of years ago, due to calling Putin too soft on Ukraine, and has since then been prevented from returning to LDNR from Moscow by Russian authorities. He’s got quite the biography. Chalks posted:This is a really weird sentence. Which bombs are allowed to be used against civilians in the Geneva Conventions? https://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-phosphorus-facts-sb-idUSTRE5471T620090508 Under international law, white phosphorus is considered an incendiary weapon, defined by Protocol III of the Convention on the Prohibition of Use of Certain Conventional Weapons as “any weapon or munition which is primarily designed to set fire to objects or to cause burn injury to persons through the action of flame, heat or combination thereof, produced by a chemical reaction of a substance delivered on the target.” The protocol prohibits using incendiary weapons against military targets located among civilians, although the United States has not signed it and is not bound by it. According to Human Rights Watch, “customary laws of war also prohibit the anti-personnel use of incendiary weapons so long as weapons less likely to cause unnecessary suffering are available.”
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Mar 23, 2022 16:41
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ZombieLenin posted:It is a puppet state; however, even puppet states have their own leadership with their own interests that in extreme circumstances override their obedience to their masters. Ha, this "just happened" on this account I follow https://mobile.twitter.com/RealTimeWWII/status/1506046412970151946
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Mar 23, 2022 16:44
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Grouchio posted:If the Swiss truly want to throw off neutrality regarding Russia they should jail Nestle execs for crimes against humanity. If they do that, more people might realize they are Swiss and not American. Better to lie low.
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Mar 23, 2022 16:45
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DeadlyMuffin posted:If they do that, more people might realize they are Swiss and not American. Better to lie low.
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Mar 23, 2022 16:47
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Russian Spetsnaz guy who 1) did a bunch of war crimes in Balkan and Chechen wars 2) led the annexation of Crimea on the ground, taking Crimean Parliament hostage amongst other things 3) is one of “founding fathers” of LDNR 4) likely called the shots on MH17. Actual Clancy-tier Russian piece of poo poo, who also happens to be genuine monarchist. He fell out with Kremlin a number of years ago, due to calling Putin too soft on Ukraine, and has since then been prevented from returning to LDNR from Moscow by Russian authorities. He’s got quite the biography.  He also likely ordered the kidnapping and torture of the guy who made this and other unflattering works of the DNR/LNR separatists.
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