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Alchenar
Apr 9, 2008

Alan Smithee posted:

wild. Would the US have interest in plane wreckage? Do they even have the latest working SU aircraft in their posession?


I'm sure there's all kinds of interesting things you can learn about the state of Russia's metallurgy from doing tests on wreckage, yeah.

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A.o.D.
Jan 15, 2006

Baconroll posted:

Ignoring the sanctions, won't this have killed any future demand for Russian arms from other countries ?

Very visible constant and repeated failure will kinda hurt demand. I appreciate there are many other issues related to the failures such as training/logistics etc, but who wants to buy the crap that lost.

Even small arms are likely cheaper from China.

Almost all of Russia's problems stem from a lack of preventative maintenance. PGMs need TLC, too. While this is a massive blemish, it's not fatal. Besides, Russia has usually positioned itself as a budget arms provider. There will still be a market for cheap goods compared to what the West offers.

FrozenVent
May 1, 2009

The Boeing 737-200QC is the undisputed workhorse of the skies.
Their poo poo looks good in parades and works fine repressing uprisings.

FrozenVent
May 1, 2009

The Boeing 737-200QC is the undisputed workhorse of the skies.

Comrade Blyatlov posted:

Hahahaha fuuuuuuuck

https://gcaptain.com/ship-engine-makers-cut-russia-ties/

Finland’s Wartsila, a leading ship engine maker, has suspended business with Russia including equipment training while German counterpart MAN Energy Solutions is reviewing contracts, adding further trade pressure on Moscow.

DNV and Lloyd’s have also pulled all support from Russia, and now the Marshall Island registry (a U.S. based corporation) is reviewing whether or not they can still provide registration to Russian owned vessels.

It’s not a maritime blockade, buuuuuuut…

stealie72
Jan 10, 2007

FrozenVent posted:

Their poo poo looks good in parades and works fine repressing uprisings.
This is the nutshell explanation of the entire Russian military debacle of the past month.

kemikalkadet
Sep 16, 2012

:woof:

FrozenVent posted:

DNV and Lloyd’s have also pulled all support from Russia, and now the Marshall Island registry (a U.S. based corporation) is reviewing whether or not they can still provide registration to Russian owned vessels.

It’s not a maritime blockade, buuuuuuut…

Bermuda did a similar thing with Russian owned aircraft. Most Russian planes are registered in Bermuda, I think for tax reasons. The government there said they won’t certify planes as safe to fly which effectively grounds them, that’s why the Russian government passed the law allowing them to seize the planes and reregister them in Russia.

Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

A.o.D. posted:

Almost all of Russia's problems stem from a lack of preventative maintenance. PGMs need TLC, too. While this is a massive blemish, it's not fatal. Besides, Russia has usually positioned itself as a budget arms provider. There will still be a market for cheap goods compared to what the West offers.

Yeah, but that's a market segment Chinese arms manufacturers are probably more than happy to take over.

I'm pretty sure various operators of Russian armour, like say, Venezuela, are currently having bad dreams about an insurgency armed with an endless supply of Javelins, Stingers and drones.

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

Jasper Tin Neck posted:

Yeah, but that's a market segment Chinese arms manufacturers are probably more than happy to take over.

I'm pretty sure various operators of Russian armour, like say, Venezuela, are currently having bad dreams about an insurgency armed with an endless supply of Javelins, Stingers and drones.


I think going forward we are going to see many changes regarding infantry weapons, drones and armoured vehicle design and usage.

They won't be getting personal energy shields from the Dune universe (unfortunately) but what is learnt in Ukraine will have ramifications. :utruck: :blyat:

edit; extra word removed

Just Another Lurker fucked around with this message at 15:08 on Mar 26, 2022

IPCRESS
May 27, 2012

Jasper Tin Neck posted:

Yeah, but that's a market segment Chinese arms manufacturers are probably more than happy to take over.

I'm pretty sure various operators of Russian armour, like say, Venezuela, are currently having bad dreams about an insurgency armed with an endless supply of Javelins, Stingers and drones.


If stingers are a threat to your tank, I promise you are beyond caring.

I'm not sure there exists a tank that is not vulnerable to top-attack munitions - if Russia were rolling around in LeClercs, they'd be having the same vulnerability issues.

Drones are magic. See your own fall of shot and adjust in real time? Go nuts, sub-$300 from AliExpress, discounted when you buy by the container. Think that that road march would be better off in in powdered form? There's a model for that, too (that one's not on AliExpress. Yet).

Do we have any evidence that Chinese equipment is any better than Russian? I think they were importing Russian jet engine cores for their indigenous fighters.

Just Another Lurker posted:

I think we going forward we are going to see many changes regarding infantry weapons, drones and armoured vehicle design and usage.

They won't be getting personal energy shields from the Dune universe (unfortunately) but what is learnt in Ukraine will have ramifications. :utruck: :blyat:

"Don't conduct unprovoked wars of aggression against countries that enjoy Western military support" should be the main takeaway. Then there are the other lessons that won't be learned "Don't operate tanks in ground too soft for them, don't operate them unsupported by infantry, and don't set off on a 200km drive with 100km of fuel".

IPCRESS fucked around with this message at 15:00 on Mar 26, 2022

kill me now
Sep 14, 2003

Why's Hank crying?

'CUZ HE JUST GOT DUNKED ON!

Baconroll posted:

Ignoring the sanctions, won't this have killed any future demand for Russian arms from other countries ?

Very visible constant and repeated failure will kinda hurt demand. I appreciate there are many other issues related to the failures such as training/logistics etc, but who wants to buy the crap that lost.

Even small arms are likely cheaper from China.

Soviet and now Russian military equipment has been on the losing side of numerous wars since the 1950's and that hasn't hurt their exportability.

If you are a country that doesn't have good relations with the west or the budget to buy top tier western material you will still look to Russia to outfit your military and just hope you don't face a western backed enemy.

A.o.D.
Jan 15, 2006

kill me now posted:

Soviet and now Russian military equipment has been on the losing side of numerous wars since the 1950's and that hasn't hurt their exportability.

If you are a country that doesn't have good relations with the west or the budget to buy top tier western material you will still look to Russia to outfit your military and just hope you don't face a western backed enemy.

The fact that the Russians have been able to move inventory after Desert Storm proves that price beats quality.

EasilyConfused
Nov 21, 2009


one strong toad

drat, when did Tasmania become independent?

Edit: I think there are some more substantial errors in this, the Dutch have Leopard 2s, for example.

EasilyConfused fucked around with this message at 15:26 on Mar 26, 2022

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost

Jasper Tin Neck posted:

I'm pretty sure various operators of Russian armour, like say, Venezuela, are currently having bad dreams about an insurgency armed with an endless supply of Javelins, Stingers and drones.

I dunno, I feel like any country in Central or South America has perpetual bad dreams about the US Government arming up a bunch of right wing murderous assholes just because the US feels like it that particular month.

Tomn
Aug 23, 2007

And the angel said unto him
"Stop hitting yourself. Stop hitting yourself."
But lo he could not. For the angel was hitting him with his own hands
I feel like the bigger issue with Russian arms sales isn’t their quality, it’s “how many arms are they still producing for export after sanctions and their knock-on effects crippled their economy while simultaneously losing a ton of their own equipment that needs replacing?”

Even if you WANT Russian arms you might not be able to get them for a while.

EasilyConfused
Nov 21, 2009


one strong toad
I've fallen down a rabbit hole of looking at tank strength of small countries. I don't think anyone is going to beat Lesotho for least useful MBT force: 1 T55.

Koesj
Aug 3, 2003

EasilyConfused posted:

Edit: I think there are some more substantial errors in this, the Dutch have Leopard 2s, for example.

All 18 of them which, although manned by NL personnel, are part of a German tank battalion inside a Dutch mech brigade inside a German Panzerdivision? Oh and the tanks are not owned but leased? I can see how that gets put on a map with the gently caress off color for “no tanks, not explaining this.”

EasilyConfused
Nov 21, 2009


one strong toad

Koesj posted:

All 18 of them which, although manned by NL personnel, are part of a German tank battalion inside a Dutch mech brigade inside a German Panzerdivision? Oh and the tanks are not owned but leased? I can see how that gets put on a map with the gently caress off color for “no tanks, not explaining this.”

It's missing others too, Ivory Coast has T-55s for example.

Who knows what the source is or even when this map was made.

CRUSTY MINGE
Mar 30, 2011

Peggy Hill
Foot Connoisseur
That's probably someone's video game map.

madeintaipei
Jul 13, 2012

EasilyConfused posted:

I've fallen down a rabbit hole of looking at tank strength of small countries. I don't think anyone is going to beat Lesotho for least useful MBT force: 1 T55.

Even better, no one will own up to knowing where that lonely T-55 came from.

Lesotho is entirely surrounded by South Africa and is fairly far inland on top of that. While possessing quite a few airports for such a small place, there is only one train station in the country.

Obviously, it came from SA.

EasilyConfused
Nov 21, 2009


one strong toad

madeintaipei posted:

Even better, no one will own up to knowing where that lonely T-55 came from.

Lesotho is entirely surrounded by South Africa and is fairly far inland on top of that. While possessing quite a few airports for such a small place, there is only one train station in the country.

Obviously, it came from SA.

Now I'm imagining a T-55 with sunglasses and a fake mustache at a border checkpoint.

Bored As Fuck
Jan 1, 2006
Fun Shoe

Tomn posted:

I feel like the bigger issue with Russian arms sales isn’t their quality, it’s “how many arms are they still producing for export after sanctions and their knock-on effects crippled their economy while simultaneously losing a ton of their own equipment that needs replacing?”

Even if you WANT Russian arms you might not be able to get them for a while.

Well there's always the French, the Germans, or the U.S.!

Taerkar
Dec 7, 2002

kind of into it, really

At this point I'm willing to entertain the possibility that that T-55 got so lost from Russia it ended up there in the past.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Bored As gently caress posted:

Well there's always the French, the Germans, or the U.S.!

I hear the french have some lovely submarines they're looking to sell.

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


imagine capturing so much hardware with tractors that this is a problem:

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1507741839750836224

Bored As Fuck
Jan 1, 2006
Fun Shoe
gently caress that I'm parking an IFV in a good spot, surroundung it with dirt berms and thick logs and camoflagingng it. Me and Dirty Mike and the boys will keep watch for any Russians stupid enough to cross our paths.

madeintaipei
Jul 13, 2012

Taerkar posted:

At this point I'm willing to entertain the possibility that that T-55 got so lost from Russia it ended up there in the past.

It's almost certainly one of the ten seized by SA from a French ship in Durban, 1979 or 80.

How it actually got into Lesotho, I can guess.

An enterprising S'African officer calls up his Lesothan royal counterpart:

"Hey, bru, I've got this tank we found in Durban. Do ya want it? Cheap, as long as you pay in Rand."

"gently caress it, why not. The king said he wanted to modernize."

Months pass...

"Prince so-and-so, did you happen to buy something off the Boere? Something big, brown, and heavy?"

"Nooooooo?"

"THEN WHAT THE gently caress IS THAT?!"

"That, what?"

"The 45 tonne chunk of steel sitt... you know what? YOU explain it to our sovereign. I wash my hand of this."

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

pmchem posted:

imagine capturing so much hardware with tractors that this is a problem:

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1507741839750836224

As a related item, I bet the black market trade in ATGMs after this is over is going to be nuts.

Bored As Fuck
Jan 1, 2006
Fun Shoe
T-55s rule so I don't blame them for owning one.

Bored As Fuck
Jan 1, 2006
Fun Shoe

Stultus Maximus posted:

As a related item, I bet the black market trade in ATGMs after this is over is going to be nuts.

I worry that a lot of ATGMs and Stingers are gonna find their way to the wrong hands.

AreWeDrunkYet
Jul 8, 2006
Probation
Can't post for 20 hours!

Bored As gently caress posted:

I worry that a lot of ATGMs and Stingers are gonna find their way to the wrong hands.

It's only really a problem for anyone invading another country or forcibly putting down a rebellion. The House of Saud is probably making GBS threads their pants about the proliferation of anti vehicle weapons.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

AreWeDrunkYet posted:

It's only really a problem for anyone invading another country or forcibly putting down a rebellion. The House of Saud is probably making GBS threads their pants about the proliferation of anti vehicle weapons.

Eh, there's plenty of right wing extremists flocking to Ukraine to fight on both sides that would probably love to use them to make a statement to some European government. SITE released an oped in the WaPo about how this is going to be a similar training ground for neo Nazis as the Libyan and Syrian civil wars were for Islamic extremists.

not caring here
Feb 22, 2012

blazemastah 2 dry 4 u
So how far is Ukraine away from a NEGATIVE equipment loss?

AreWeDrunkYet
Jul 8, 2006
Probation
Can't post for 20 hours!

psydude posted:

Eh, there's plenty of right wing extremists flocking to Ukraine to fight on both sides that would probably love to use them to make a statement to some European government. SITE released an oped in the WaPo about how this is going to be a similar training ground for neo Nazis as the Libyan and Syrian civil wars were for Islamic extremists.

Are they really any sort of game changer when it comes to terrorism? There are a lot of obstacles to a terror attack other than the weapons involved, and it's not like any interesting targets when attacking civilians are so armored that that bringing a Javelin to the table is a big deal.

The main impact after this war is probably that it's going to be a lot more dangerous to take armored vehicles where they aren't wanted by the locals. See helicopters post the 1980s Afghanistan war.

AreWeDrunkYet fucked around with this message at 17:18 on Mar 26, 2022

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

not caring here posted:

So how far is Ukraine away from a NEGATIVE equipment loss?

I'm trying to find it, but the Guardian quoted a Pentagon official as saying Ukraine now has more tanks than when they started.

Hyrax Attack!
Jan 13, 2009

We demand to be taken seriously

madeintaipei posted:

Even better, no one will own up to knowing where that lonely T-55 came from.

Lesotho is entirely surrounded by South Africa and is fairly far inland on top of that. While possessing quite a few airports for such a small place, there is only one train station in the country.

Obviously, it came from SA.

I asked a South African coworker about Lesotho as it seemed odd to have a country landlocked entirely by your own country and he explained most South Africans barely think about it and compared it to Native American reservations.

Lovely Joe Stalin
Jun 12, 2007

Our Lovely Wang
When talking about the future of armour and how good the top attack weapons are, a pertinent point was raised by a tank expert. For all the hilarity of the cope cages, how many tanks that have one and were clearly taken out from a top attack have we seen evidence for?

madeintaipei
Jul 13, 2012

Hyrax Attack! posted:

I asked a South African coworker about Lesotho as it seemed odd to have a country landlocked entirely by your own country and he explained most South Africans barely think about it and compared it to Native American reservations.

That is a sane and rational assessment by your colleague.

Lesotho's independence served a very clear purpose by legitimizing SA and Rhodesia's independence from the UK. Past that, they didn't give a fuuuuuuck until it came time to rationalize creation of the Bantustans.

"See? Lesotho has been there for years. A nearly homogeneous ethnostate with a strong government. Proof positive that, with our help, Africans can live apart but equal!"

The Bantustans were not, obviously, equal in any sane sense of the word.

Proud Christian Mom
Dec 20, 2006
READING COMPREHENSION IS HARD

mlmp08 posted:

I dunno, I feel like any country in Central or South America has perpetual bad dreams about the US Government arming up a bunch of right wing murderous assholes just because the US feels like it that particular month.

And considering how wildly popular this has been, you're definitely going to see it happen again

Diarrhea Elemental
Apr 2, 2012

Am I correct in my assumption, you fish-faced enemy of the people?

Lovely Joe Stalin posted:

When talking about the future of armour and how good the top attack weapons are, a pertinent point was raised by a tank expert. For all the hilarity of the cope cages, how many tanks that have one and were clearly taken out from a top attack have we seen evidence for?

I've got to wonder how you'd even get positive ID on that rickety poo poo when it's upside down buried under the flipped, blown-off turret after eating a ATGM strike.

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psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Lovely Joe Stalin posted:

When talking about the future of armour and how good the top attack weapons are, a pertinent point was raised by a tank expert. For all the hilarity of the cope cages, how many tanks that have one and were clearly taken out from a top attack have we seen evidence for?

I've personally seen a bunch photos and videos of dislodged turrets with a noticeable hole in the cope cage.

What's interesting is that I've started seeing them less, which makes me think the Russians have either removed them or they're bringing in more stock and haven't had time to put them on.

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