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Well it's a bit more complicated than that. First of all, since Dec. 2021 it's no longer called the BFV but the DSN, which came with the reorganization of the service. The reason why foreign services no longer shared sensitive intel with the former BFV was because their bureaus were raided by the local police, after an anonymous publication made severe allegations against the BFV's leadership. Ultimately it was not Russian infiltration but political infighting instigated by the extreme-right FPÖ that caused this. Imagine if Donald Trump drummed up the Washington Police department to raid the offices of the Department of Homeland Security and confiscate sensitive documents, including those shared by friendly foreign agencies. That's what happened here. But a lot has changed since then, the FPÖ lost the last elections, it's former head stumbled over a corruption scandal and is out of politics and maybe the DSN will do a better job. Also Vienna is home to one of the four official headquarters of the United Nations and it wasn't called City of Spies for nothing during the Cold War and beyond. Almost everything of geopolitical importance is infiltrated either by the West or the East and our neutrality only exists on paper. Hammerstein fucked around with this message at 23:04 on Mar 27, 2022 |
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Mar 27, 2022 22:57
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And I stand by that claim as correct. You can say there were other factors boxing the Russians into becoming a petrostate, but the Soviet Union didn't have that issue. It's where the Russian political elite settled themselves in the 90s and we're just watching the toilet flush since.
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Mar 27, 2022 22:58
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https://twitter.com/mkpetkova/status/1508182225531154446
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Mar 27, 2022 23:02
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Morrow posted:And I stand by that claim as correct. You can say there were other factors boxing the Russians into becoming a petrostate, but the Soviet Union didn't have that issue. It's where the Russian political elite settled themselves in the 90s and we're just watching the toilet flush since. Nah the Soviet Union was absolutely a petrostate that used revenues from oil and gas to subsidise heavy industry and buy food from the US to make up for the catasrophic failure to modernise the agricultural sector. What happened in the 90's is that this model of cross-subsidisation suddenly ended and obviously the whole thing instantly fell apart. What Yeltsin/Putin ended up doing to restore the situation was put back in place a fair measure of cross-subsidisation, but with the state monopolies now in private hands and run on an oligarchic patronage model rather than directly controlled by the government. It's a slightly different structure but it's a fundamental problem that Russia has had since it found oil. e: bottom line the problem Russia had in the 90's is that there was no oil money to fund an economic transition, which was a bit of a catch-22 because a lack of oil money was also what was making it clear that the Soviet economic model was unsustainable and prompted the political desire to transition. Alchenar fucked around with this message at 23:10 on Mar 27, 2022 |
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Mar 27, 2022 23:07
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MechanicalTomPetty posted:I actually asked about this shortly before the invasion kicked off and I think the consensus at the time was that he'd keep any potential ideas for a successor very close to his chest to avoid any potential incentive for the heir apparent to stage a coup. And now he keeps nobody close, in an exceptionally literal way, which is the most visually lurid way so far of all the pieces of data that are here to remind everyone that you cannot presume that his decisions on leadership or succession will be sane or rational. Absolutely everything that takes place along the tail end of his career could have very strong Late Era Howard Hughes-rear end energy, even if the Ukranian situation has put a cap on his viable period of revanchist aggression and fever-dreams of restoring russia via combined military and economic malpractice
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Mar 27, 2022 23:16
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https://twitter.com/tinso_ww/status/1508182737928265739 literally elder scrolls sized crowd they got there
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Mar 27, 2022 23:17
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https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1508196832136122381?s=20&t=-WaHZLziF4IEfJoNMfJEZQ This is all just very unfortunate to witness.
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Mar 27, 2022 23:18
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Deteriorata posted:Most of the maps I'm following are showing the Russian presence completely evaporating in the Sumy - Kharkiv area, like this one. Yeah, looks like a fairly orderly withdrawal. The telegram stuff I'm seeing from the area is not major fighting, but mopping up stragglers, after most of the Russians left. This time, with almost all of their gear with them. The units that were left to guard the line were the DPR/LPR militia, which are mostly surrendering. Could be a sign of the redirection of efforts towards the east, that has been hinted at by many sources. Unless they change their mind or are not going all the way to the border, the siege of Sumy will probably be entirely lifted tomorrow. I wonder what this means for Chernihiv.
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Mar 27, 2022 23:20
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So I guess the take away from this, as has always been I guess, is that a nuclear power can do whatever the gently caress it wants to a non-nuclear power and no one will do anything to stop them militarily.
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Mar 27, 2022 23:22
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Kwolok posted:So I guess the take away from this, as has always been I guess, is that a nuclear power can do whatever the gently caress it wants to a non-nuclear power and no one will do anything to stop them militarily. That's 99% of the point of nuclear weapons, yes
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Mar 27, 2022 23:23
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Tuna-Fish posted:Yeah, looks like a fairly orderly withdrawal. The telegram stuff I'm seeing from the area is not major fighting, but mopping up stragglers, after most of the Russians left. This time, with almost all of their gear with them. The units that were left to guard the line were the DPR/LPR militia, which are mostly surrendering. Trostianets seems to have had a bunch of stuff, but it's probably small in the large scheme of things. Chernivih is in tough spot due to the last big bridge being blown, I think, but maybe some of the more roundabout routes would open up?
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Mar 27, 2022 23:25
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For the record this schmuck also retweets this rear end in a top hat. Basically Russian agents quoting each other for evidentiary support. https://twitter.com/politblogme/status/1508195928414605318?s=21&t=nY97QcsGnSJ1mxaj0IX3Aw Marshal Prolapse fucked around with this message at 23:30 on Mar 27, 2022 |
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Mar 27, 2022 23:25
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Kwolok posted:So I guess the take away from this, as has always been I guess, is that a nuclear power can do whatever the gently caress it wants to a non-nuclear power and no one will do anything to stop them militarily. Ukraine seems to be stopping them quite well, militarily.
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Mar 27, 2022 23:26
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A thread about another Zelenskyy interviews https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1508183820503330826 https://twitter.com/lesiavasylenko/status/1508171304138125321 https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1508173904459747343 Marshal Prolapse posted:It’s kind of amazing most fan scenario briefings for Harpoon, Steel Panthers II, or Command Modern Operations, are far far more thought out and we’ll planned then Russia actually did. 
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Mar 27, 2022 23:27
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Marshal Prolapse posted:For the record this schmuck also retweets this rear end in a top hat. "Schmuck" is a good word for this Ragozin. (Not the similarly named Nazi Roskosmos head, that needs tougher language). He is a pretty standard example of a Russian "liberal" that's against the war but has previously has posted a whole bunch of neo-colonialist condescending stuff about Ukrainians. Like "I don't understand, why does Ukraine want to die for some NATO countries" type deal.
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Mar 27, 2022 23:30
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Deteriorata posted:Ukraine seems to be stopping them quite well, militarily. Not well enough. The west needs to stop Russia from selling any oil or gas to anyone and it needs to start giving them advanced heavy weapons that can check their missile, airforce and naval threats. As things stand they can just hang back and shell major cities while carving out a section of eastern Ukraine where they abduct children and citizens and ship them to Siberia while replacing them with Russians. What’s happening here is unacceptable and we need tougher leadership in the west than what we have.
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Mar 27, 2022 23:35
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Kraftwerk posted:The west needs to stop Russia from selling any oil or gas to anyone How?
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Mar 27, 2022 23:35
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sniper4625 posted:How? For starters the Germans need to poo poo or get off that pot. They’re either with the Russians or they’re with us. We won’t be able to stop Russian energy exports to India and China but we’re definitely letting lots of stuff slip through the cracks in Europe.
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Mar 27, 2022 23:37
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FishBulbia posted:https://twitter.com/tinso_ww/status/1508182737928265739 I’m dead Tuna-Fish posted:Could be a sign of the redirection of efforts towards the east, that has been hinted at by many sources. While I have my doubts about eastern refocus, I’ll take the silver lining of getting food and meds into Sumy, Chernihiv. OddObserver posted:Chernivih is in tough spot due to the last big bridge being blown, I think, but maybe some of the more roundabout routes would open up? I’ve only seen the same, that all bridges have been blown, and that Russians have laid mines around the perimeter. sniper4625 posted:How? If Europe stops buying either gas or oil from Russia, the corresponding leg of their economy will collapse. Interesting, I appreciate the explanation.
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Mar 27, 2022 23:38
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cinci zoo sniper posted:If Europe stops buying either gas or oil from Russia, the corresponding leg of their economy will collapse. Yeah this is what I was saying, I don't see a practical way to enforce a total embargo as called for among the allies of the US, much less our competitors.
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Mar 27, 2022 23:40
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sniper4625 posted:Yeah this is what I was saying, I don't see a practical way to enforce a total embargo as called for among the allies of the US, much less our competitors. I agree, I don’t see that happening. Dutch economy would take a possibly crippling blow from oil embargo, and gas reliance is quite high amongst the bigger countries. If it was only the problem of, say, Latvia importing 100% of our gas consumption from Russia, the EU could bail us out in a number of ways. Given the state of affairs in Germany, Italy, and so on - it might be too late for blanket embargo on fossil fuels.
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Mar 27, 2022 23:44
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OddObserver posted:Trostianets seems to have had a bunch of stuff, but it's probably small in the large scheme of things. Trostianets was taken on the 26th, and it was defended by a Mech BTG, which was beaten in combat. But that was the last major fighting in the area, after that the Ukrainian advance has been much more rapid and faced only scattered resistance.
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Mar 27, 2022 23:44
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Mariupol is destroyed. There's basically nothing left to conquer. It's loving destroyed. One of the most profitable ukrainian cities has been turned into Aleppo. Actually worse. The industrial sector has been turned into hell. At this point Russia has destroyed the major industrial capacity of Ukraine east of the dnipr. Now the joblessness and poverty will do the rest of the damage. Europe must lend lease Ukraine factories and rebuild the country .
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Mar 27, 2022 23:45
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Kraftwerk posted:For starters the Germans need to poo poo or get off that pot. They’re either with the Russians or they’re with us. Oil is pretty fungible. If half the world refuses to buy Russian oil then the other half will just buy it and the sanctioning countries will buy it from the nations they're no longer buying from. Gas, on the other hand, is hard to transport without pipelines, so Europe refusing to buy Russian gas would probably hurt Russia pretty bad. Unfortunately the fact that it's hard to move around also means it would be hard for Europe to find another source. I've also heard that Russian oil and gas industries were highly reliant on western companies and expertise so it's possible even if there's no actual sanctions on them production might start to fall quickly due to a lack of maintenance and spare parts.
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Mar 27, 2022 23:45
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Looks like there was also a Zelensky interview with the Economist, this one is of course in English: https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1508184017148993538
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Mar 27, 2022 23:48
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I can't stand all the credulous talk about Ukrainian nazis in the media, here (not anyone specifically, just in general) and elsewhere. There is only one side acting like nazis here and it is Russia. They are the nazis, launching a pointless war of aggression, killing and putting into camps hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians, destroying untold amounts of homes, infrastructure, and lives. Injured, dead civilians, explosions . Probably not as bad as the last one but don't click if you're unsurehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hhBfNDVs-PY Vice video, mainly from Mykolaiv and disputed territory nearby. The part where a woman's mother in Russia just mindlessly repeats Putin's lies was especially tough.
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Mar 27, 2022 23:49
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Mariupol is destroyed. There's basically nothing left to conquer. It's loving destroyed. One of the most profitable ukrainian cities has been turned into Aleppo. Actually worse. The industrial sector has been turned into hell. First we must kick the russians out though
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Mar 27, 2022 23:50
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mobby_6kl posted:First we must kick the russians out though Kill Nazis is always priority #1
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Mar 27, 2022 23:51
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I’m dead Don't laugh. It takes a lot of courage to publicly admit that your the biggest dipshit in your city.
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Mar 27, 2022 23:53
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Mariupol is destroyed. There's basically nothing left to conquer. It's loving destroyed. One of the most profitable ukrainian cities has been turned into Aleppo. Actually worse. The industrial sector has been turned into hell. But yes I agree that once this is actually over, the West needs to help rebuild
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Mar 27, 2022 23:56
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Play posted:[...] The part where a woman's mother in Russia just mindlessly repeats Putin's lies was especially tough.
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Mar 27, 2022 23:58
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Mariupol is destroyed. There's basically nothing left to conquer. It's loving destroyed. One of the most profitable ukrainian cities has been turned into Aleppo. Actually worse. The industrial sector has been turned into hell. You posted in the Middle East thread enough to know it's not worse than Aleppo.
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Mar 27, 2022 23:58
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waydownLo posted:Joining the EU would have theoretically given the Poles an effective veto over Russian state action, and you know that would be intolerable to every stripe of Muscovite government. Russia decided it’d rather be a Great State with the concomitant right to imperial ambitions as a mutually exclusive alternative to subordinating its sovereignty to the EU. Yeah, this checks out with the Brits as well. Chasing the ghost of their empire and importance is basically what Brexit was all about.
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Mar 28, 2022 00:00
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orcane posted:This is so bonkers. My mom calls her friends who remain in Ukraine daily and one of them told her how she got called by an aunt (who lives in Russia), who was crying on the phone how terrible it is that Ukraine resists denazification and risks so many innoecent lives there. They're straight brainwashed.
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Mar 28, 2022 00:00
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Bremen posted:Oil is pretty fungible. If half the world refuses to buy Russian oil then the other half will just buy it and the sanctioning countries will buy it from the nations they're no longer buying from. As it has been explained to, there’s apparently a whole load of complexity with different oil flavours, which makes it less interoperable than I would’ve thought before. Your point is salient though for the ease of shipping it to somewhere else. Ikasuhito posted:Don't laugh. It takes a lot of courage to publicly admit that your the biggest dipshit in your city. I’d love to see interviews with the members of that “crowd”, if I wasn’t unable to predict their replies, perhaps even to exact sentences.
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Mar 28, 2022 00:01
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A bunch of experts ("experts"?) are saying that replacing the oil would be fairly easy and useful, both because it's a large part of Russian income and also because it would be much less painful to replace because, yeah, transport options and the fact it's a much smaller percentage of European energy imports. So it hurts the Russian economy a lot, the European one a little, and they can still work on phasing out gas imports gradually. Doing it on a global scale gets more difficult because there's still China.FlamingLiberal posted:It's really not that different from the people who only get their news from Fox and right-wing Facebook pages. The longer you get a steady stream of that garbage, the faster it rots your brain. In Russia you don't have the ability to get alternative sources of news either.
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Mar 28, 2022 00:06
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FlamingLiberal posted:It's really not that different from the people who only get their news from Fox and right-wing Facebook pages. The longer you get a steady stream of that garbage, the faster it rots your brain. In Russia you don't have the ability to get alternative sources of news either. or all US for-profit media in 2002-3
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Mar 28, 2022 00:09
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Grape posted:Yeah, this checks out with the Brits as well. Chasing the ghost of their empire and importance is basically what Brexit was all about.
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Mar 28, 2022 00:10
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https://twitter.com/anna_luky/status/1508219624420220929 https://twitter.com/iaponomarenko/status/1508169527976247307 cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 00:53 on Mar 28, 2022 |
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Mar 28, 2022 00:48
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Majorian posted:...largely because we, ie: the West, kept them from getting it together.
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