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Mr. Smile Face Hat posted:If a country suffers a total loss of a war, then the winning side can just do what they want, no peace negotiations or treaty needed anyway. I don't see how it makes it less valuable for the winning party unless those practicalities and politics are actually meaningful and relevant. If a country can only pursue their return in principle but not in practice, why should the winning party care? What matters is whether the rest of the world feels the territory had been signed away legally or not, and more pertinently to be honest, whether the world can pretend the territory has been signed away legally or not. The west is willing to go to bat with sanctions for Ukraine and its people right now while they're in the middle of an active invasion and we're seeing maternity hospitals blown up. Will they be willing to go to bat with sanctions for the Ukrainian Constitutional Court?
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Mar 29, 2022 12:31
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Hannibal Rex posted:https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1508519883780284431?t=4Ln403vRG8sU5c6jv2yR_g&s=19 https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1508535165978566660?s=20&t=fWRvQ-pI-htiF62IIxsByQ
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Mar 29, 2022 12:32
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Hannibal Rex posted:https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1508519883780284431?t=4Ln403vRG8sU5c6jv2yR_g&s=19 I suspect the US will be more then happy to sell them gas and get it in bulk along with Qatar.
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Mar 29, 2022 12:34
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Aertuun posted:https://twitter.com/jsuedekum/status/1508751047648497669
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Mar 29, 2022 12:34
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GaussianCopula posted:People making GBS threads on this should keep in mind that the Russian army is an army of the poor minorities in Russia ("country bumpkin" is a word frequently used to describe them) and not the middle class who are invading Ukraine along major roadways. When they go looting, they are probably going for middle/upper class parts, so that might add to the distorted view they have. I went to Russia in 2012 for a family trip taking the Trans-siberian railroad from east to west. One of our stops was at Lake Bikal, the famous freshwater lake. The roads there were so absymal that it was just straight impossible to drive upon. All the drivers were driving on either side of the road on the grass because the road itself was a nightmare. All of those cars were tearing up the mud and grass on the side of the road and rendering it just as undrivable as the road proper. This wasn't a backwater road, this was the main highway to the lake and the smaller roads were even worse. The car felt like a washing machine with how much it rolled, going up hills with so many exposed tree roots it was like stairs. The entire country felt post apocalyptic in a way I've never seen anywhere else. I saw waterfront skyscrapers in Vladivostok with every single glass window broken, just these skeletal buildings you could see right through. I saw beautiful western style mansions surrounded by clustered and rusting shacks. There were huge tank depots visible from the railway. At one point there was a wildfire that the train just drove right on through without giving a single gently caress and it felt like the country was burning down and nobody could be arsed to stop it. And then we got to Moscow and it was immediately obvious where all the money in the country had gone. Moscow is a black hole sucking in all the resources of that vast nation and the further you get from it the poorer it gets. Thanqol fucked around with this message at 12:37 on Mar 29, 2022 |
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Mar 29, 2022 12:35
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Dapper_Swindler posted:I suspect the US will be more then happy to sell them gas and get it in bulk along with Qatar. The LNG terminals aren't there to cover the quantities needed, and they can't be built that quickly.* *not an expert, but that's the aggregate impression I've got.
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Mar 29, 2022 12:38
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Charlz Guybon posted:How is this not lunacy on Russia's part? Explain it to me like I'm in 1st grade. If you are convinced you are going to have a fight, and the situation is going to only get worse from now on, then you might as well have the fight now and go all-in because what other options do you have? This is also how WW1 starts.
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Mar 29, 2022 12:39
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Alchenar posted:If you are convinced you are going to have a fight, and the situation is going to only get worse from now on, then you might as well have the fight now and go all-in because what other options do you have? https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1508774654940520448?s=20&t=ckYC3lIZNrZAqeMJOnNhfA How long before Putin countermands this? PerilPastry fucked around with this message at 12:57 on Mar 29, 2022 |
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Mar 29, 2022 12:54
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Failed Imagineer posted:I'm Irish, we did exactly this with the northern quarter of our country a hundred years ago. Results have been mixed. Sure getting annexed wasn't ideal, but if it happens you want to at least get yourself a rich sugar-daddy imperialist, not a poor shithole one who can't support the people they already have. I live in the north and it's actually a pretty good life, I reckon any separatist areas incorporated to Russia will probably have a much worse quality of life than even economically deprived locations in Russia.
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Mar 29, 2022 12:57
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PerilPastry posted:Has Germany et al definitively rejected the rubles proposal? Sounded to me like the debate was still ongoing? Would be weird to preempt that decision by just cutting off delivery beforehand Yes, German government has confirmed they are not interested in paying in rubles and Russia will have to break its delivery contracts. Don't know about the rest of Europe. Probably the same, current mood is for more sanctions not to reduce them.
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Mar 29, 2022 13:00
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PerilPastry posted:Has Germany et al definitively rejected the rubles proposal? Sounded to me like the debate was still ongoing? Would be weird to preempt that decision by just cutting off delivery beforehand G7 rejected it unanimously yesterday.
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Mar 29, 2022 13:01
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Hannibal Rex posted:The LNG terminals aren't there to cover the quantities needed, and they can't be built that quickly.* That's always a matter of cost. Things can be built in very short time frames if it is important enough and government is willing authorize the required expenditure. Let's cancel the Femern bridge and spend that money on LNG terminals and restarting the inactive gas fields in the North Sea - or even better we can stop burning gas, which is happening at several rigs, because we don't have the infrastructure to handle the amount of gas we're pumping (at least as of January 2022). Also, the Tyra rigs are behind schedule mostly due to labor shortage, which is a money problem.
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Mar 29, 2022 13:01
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 https://twitter.com/DavidPuente/status/1508472943663357963?t=M3cnQj579Y8iuxoqUIwdJg&s=19This is a thread in Italian, but the site of the POW shootings has been geolocated to East of Kharkiv, and the letter that showed up afterwards has been debunked for having used an OTS token signature, if I understand the auto-translate correctly.
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Mar 29, 2022 13:02
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PerilPastry posted:Has Germany et al definitively rejected the rubles proposal? Sounded to me like the debate was still ongoing? Would be weird to preempt that decision by just cutting off delivery beforehand It's a bit more difficult actually. While the G7, including Germany, have rejected the Russian demand to pay in Rubel, the contracts are with private companies, therefore the G7 only "recommended" to continue to pay in Dollar/Euro. Now the private enterprises that have deals with Gazprom have to decide what they want to do - and what they can do without violating sanctions.
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Mar 29, 2022 13:02
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Xachariah posted:Sure getting annexed wasn't ideal, but if it happens you want to at least get yourself a rich sugar-daddy imperialist, not a poor shithole one who can't support the people they already have. Imperial colonialism by definition extracts resources from its colonies, with rare exceptions they are not interested in bankrolling their colonies. That kind of backwards thinking leads to "the British gave India trains" and other similar kinds of brain-spiders
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Mar 29, 2022 13:08
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GaussianCopula posted:It's a bit more difficult actually. While the G7, including Germany, have rejected the Russian demand to pay in Rubel, the contracts are with private companies, therefore the G7 only "recommended" to continue to pay in Dollar/Euro. Paying in Rubles requires finding a bank willing to break sanctions - and a Chinese bank which is willing to deal with Russia might not be willing to facilitate the sanction breaking of a European company, because that might very well lead to consequences for very little gain. It's also quite risky from an exposure point of view - a lot of the derivatives used to handle fx risk simply aren't available at the moment for the relevant fx crosses. For example, Danish Ørsted has a contract for Russian gas. If they want to make payment in Rubles they need to buy those - which means transferring Euro or Kroner to a third party in exchange for Rubles. Ørsted's bank would ask "where is that massive chunk of money going?" and then reply "oh you're trying to bypass sanctions? sorry, no can do - we'd be complicit and we don't want to be". So even if you find someone willing to let you buy Rubles and handle the transfer of those to the Russian counterpart - your own bank will likely shut down that plan.
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Mar 29, 2022 13:14
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Nail Rat posted:Florida, Alabama, hell most of the south, and as someone in Chicago, almost all of Illinois. Including all of the suburbs. Pretty much all of the ‘Red States.’ I would give them up before the fighting started.
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Mar 29, 2022 13:21
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ZombieLenin posted:Pretty much all of the ‘Red States.’ I would give them up before the fighting started. It seems like there are already efforts underway to preemptively donate them.
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Mar 29, 2022 13:24
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steinrokkan posted:In 1941? Sevastopol did not fall until 1942; and yes, by late 1941 the Red Army largely knew what it was doing.
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Mar 29, 2022 13:27
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Failed Imagineer posted:Imperial colonialism by definition extracts resources from its colonies, with rare exceptions they are not interested in bankrolling their colonies. That kind of backwards thinking leads to "the British gave India trains" and other similar kinds of brain-spiders Northern Ireland is highly dependant on fiscal subsidies and this is one of the potential impediments to formal re-unification with Ireland. So yeah, I'd rather be part of a reunited Ireland, but at least London beats Moscow as a sugar-daddy. Silver linings.
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Mar 29, 2022 13:30
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There has been some progress on the negations, I guess. But can only find Russian and Finnish tweets. I guess the best way is the google translation.    As a bonus, Pro-Putin telegram channels reactions.  Have no idea what it really means and does it go to Putin hows going to use it as toilet paper cause they are running out of paper.
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Mar 29, 2022 13:32
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PerilPastry posted:
Or you just say you're doing it to increase trust, when you are massing force in the east in case Ukraine doesn't agree to your terms.
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Mar 29, 2022 13:34
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Captain Kosmos posted:There has been some progress on the negations, I guess. But can only find Russian and Finnish tweets. None of these look viable. If Zelenskyy actually goes with this, Russia will just invade against at a later date. The military neutrality is especially concerning. Telling Ukraine to be non-militarily involved with the EU is a total non-starter.
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Mar 29, 2022 13:34
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ZombieLenin posted:Sevastopol did not fall until 1942; and yes, by late 1941 the Red Army largely knew what it was doing. I think the door has swung, as is often the case, too far from the old trope of a completely inhumane red army that only won through sheer numbers, towards a new and also flawed extreme of "actually the red army was very competent and advanced and nuanced". Red army performance in WWII was marred by massive bumbling idiocy throughout the war, even during the periods when it reached its peak. The siege of Sevastopol was primarily a showcase of the value of prepared defenses, rather than of the comparatively great skill of the red army compared to contemporary Russia. The question is, do any significant defenses exist at Sevastopol today, not is Russian army capable of holding them.
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Mar 29, 2022 13:35
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Captain Kosmos posted:There has been some progress on the negations, I guess. But can only find Russian and Finnish tweets. Yeah, i dont trust poo poo about this until other sources come out. hell i won't believe any negotiations until there is some big "we made a decision" press conference from both sides.
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Mar 29, 2022 13:36
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Rotacixe posted:Or you just say you're doing it to increase trust, when you are massing force in the east in case Ukraine doesn't agree to your terms. "Me getting my rear end kicked and being forced to retreat and regroup is actually a real olive branch if you think about it" CommieGIR posted:None of these look viable. If Zelenskyy actually goes with this, Russia will just invade against at a later date. The military neutrality is especially concerning. Telling Ukraine to be non-militarily involved with the EU is a total non-starter.
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Mar 29, 2022 13:40
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Xachariah posted:Northern Ireland is highly dependant on fiscal subsidies and this is one of the potential impediments to formal re-unification with Ireland. So yeah, I'd rather be part of a reunited Ireland, but at least London beats Moscow as a sugar-daddy. Silver linings. We in N.I. are an embarrassment to the current government atm due to being better off than them trade wise (silly, silly Brexit) and they would like us to simply vanish from their agendas so they can focus on their "Singapore On Thames" wet dream.  edit: spelling Just Another Lurker fucked around with this message at 13:44 on Mar 29, 2022 |
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Mar 29, 2022 13:41
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PerilPastry posted:Ruling out military-political alliances on the one hand and suggesting the likes of Poland as a security guarantor seems really weird too. Wouldn't that, in effect, be a defensive treaty? It entirely is. If this is real, Russia is trying to walk a line to do a Budapest Memorandum II and leave it just as weak as the previous one. If Zelenskyy bites this take, Russia is just trying to delay to reform their forces and finish the deal and leave Poland in a position of having to fight Russia.
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Mar 29, 2022 13:42
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CommieGIR posted:None of these look viable. If Zelenskyy actually goes with this, Russia will just invade against at a later date. The military neutrality is especially concerning. Telling Ukraine to be non-militarily involved with the EU is a total non-starter. Mainly I don't see how "not joining military-political alliances" and "eu is ok" are compatible. Or how Poland or Turkey can be guarantors of anything if military contigents or cooperation isn't allowed.
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Mar 29, 2022 13:43
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mobby_6kl posted:Mainly I don't see how "not joining military-political alliances" and "eu is ok" are compatible. Or how Poland or Turkey can be guarantors of anything if military contigents or cooperation isn't allowed. That too. Its full of doublespeak.
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Mar 29, 2022 13:45
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Moscow thinks EU defense agreements are worthless. I'm not sure what they're worth, honestly.
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Mar 29, 2022 13:46
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CommieGIR posted:It entirely is. If this is real, Russia is trying to walk a line to do a Budapest Memorandum II and leave it just as weak as the previous one. If Zelenskyy bites this take, Russia is just trying to delay to reform their forces and finish the deal and leave Poland in a position of having to fight Russia. These terms are the stupidest crap possible and make me feel vindicated in being wary of negotiations. If Zelensky accepts this, he’s not very smart.
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Mar 29, 2022 13:46
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Captain Kosmos posted:There has been some progress on the negations, I guess. But can only find Russian and Finnish tweets. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-sets-ceasefire-goal-new-russia-talks-breakthrough-looks-distant-2022-03-29/
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Mar 29, 2022 13:46
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https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1508770673795256322 https://twitter.com/kevinrothrock/status/1508787131933671431 DOOMocrat posted:Moscow thinks EU defense agreements are worthless. I'm not sure what they're worth, honestly. EU falls apart the second they’re not upheld.
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Mar 29, 2022 13:47
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steinrokkan posted:I think the door has swung, as is often the case, too far from the old trope of a completely inhumane red army that only won through sheer numbers, towards a new and also flawed extreme of "actually the red army was very competent and advanced and nuanced". Red army performance in WWII was marred by massive bumbling idiocy throughout the war, even during the periods when it reached its peak. The siege of Sevastopol was primarily a showcase of the value of prepared defenses, rather than of the comparatively great skill of the red army compared to contemporary Russia. The question is, do any significant defenses exist at Sevastopol today, not is Russian army capable of holding them. I’m not saying that this isn’t a fair analysis, but it really isn’t fair to say that Red Army whose counter attack in December and January of 1941 threw the Wehrmacht back from Moscow, and then in late 1942 during Operation Uranus threw the Germans out of the Caucasus and South East Russia, and surrounded the German 6th Army in Stalingrad was a bunch of bumbling idiots on the scale we see the modern Russian Army in Ukraine.
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Mar 29, 2022 13:47
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But surely Russian withdrawal will be immediately followed by a massive rebuilding and strengthening exercise by Ukraine with the help of the EU and NATO? Russia can complain to the UN about the newly installed AA all along the border but Ukraine can just say "what you gonna do about it?" Putin isn't the only one that can renege on any agreement and we're back to square one but this time Ukrainian cities aren't being shelled.
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Mar 29, 2022 13:48
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Mr. Smile Face Hat posted:These terms are the stupidest crap possible and Make me feel vindicated in being wary of negotiations. If Zelensky accepts this, he’s not very smart. I don't think they're too bad if EU is actually ok. If that's true, it's 100% a face saving measure on russian part, because EU does have collective defense which can be increased further it at any point. In fact there have been discussions even prior to the war.
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Mar 29, 2022 13:49
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Dwesa posted:It was posted by Reuters too So remember: This is likely the same tactic Russia pulled last time there was a supposed agreement: They tout and shout about their agreement to try to help push back sanctions, but Zelenskyy then comes out and calls their bluff. If this is only from Russian sources, its probably more of the same as last time. Russia, thusfar, has never announced agreements in good faith.
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Mar 29, 2022 13:50
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CommieGIR posted:So remember: This is likely the same tactic Russia pulled last time there was a supposed agreement: They tout and shout about their agreement to try to help push back sanctions, but Zelenskyy then comes out and calls their bluff.
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Mar 29, 2022 13:52
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cinci zoo sniper posted:EU falls apart the second they’re not upheld. If the only deterrent Russia will recognize is a nuclear one that leaves the French Force du Frappe as the sole adjudicator in the EU, and Russia probably wagers there's no odds of anyone knew taking over other than an even more milk toast corporateist or an extreme fascist that's on their side. I don't think the RF is scared at all, as long as they can wait.
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Mar 29, 2022 13:53
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