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KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

What are the troops doing now I wonder. On both sides. Site like dead quiet Intel wise. We do know the Ukrainians repelled an attack on a north village near the JFO. Otherwise where are troops repositioning?

Well the Russians are pulling out of Sumy as fast as they can
https://twitter.com/Caucasuswar/status/1510758178841051136?t=cltPNtvS-4N6haNtEXFGUw&s=19
Note: the videos come up as sensitive but they just show large Russian tank convoys pulling out of Ukraine. Unless Russian failure is considered porn now.

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Concerned Citizen
Jul 22, 2007
Ramrod XTreme

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

What are the troops doing now I wonder. On both sides. Site like dead quiet Intel wise. We do know the Ukrainians repelled an attack on a north village near the JFO. Otherwise where are troops repositioning?

FIRMS seems to imply somewhat lower intensity of fighting than usual in the east, but there is clearly fighting south of Izyum where the Russians are still attempting to advance. Otherwise, the normal intense battles happening at the LoC. There still does not appear to be much happening in Kherson. It's unclear to me what Ukraine's plan is there. There are apparently 4-5 BTGs worth of Russian strength in that area, although they may be depleted by the fighting. That's still an enormous lift to liberate unless they just straight flee the town.

Kaal
May 22, 2002

through thousands of posts in D&D over a decade, I now believe I know what I'm talking about. if I post forcefully and confidently, I can convince others that is true. no one sees through my facade.

mutata posted:

Oh no! A ban on imports, you say?!

Yup, pretty much. It's a very low bar. But halting the $500 million / year German-Russian fossil fuel addiction is a critical first step to further European action.

They talk about it in this summary update, which includes photo coverage of Russian atrocities.


NYT posted:

“The Russian authorities will have to answer for these crimes,” said France’s president, Emmanuel Macron. Poland’s prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, called the actions of the Russian army in Bucha and other towns around Kyiv “acts of genocide.” And António Guterres, the United Nations secretary general, expressing “shock” over the images of dead civilians, said: “It is essential that an independent investigation leads to effective accountability.”

Prime Minister Boris Johnson of Britain condemned “Russia’s despicable attacks against innocent civilians in Irpin and Bucha,” and even Yair Lapid, the foreign minister of Israel, which has been wary of antagonizing Moscow, said it was “impossible to remain indifferent in the face of the horrific images from the city of Bucha.”

“Intentionally harming a civilian population is a war crime and I strongly condemn it,” Mr. Lapid said.

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken, in an interview on CNN, said the killings should not go unpunished. “We’ve said before Russia’s aggression that we thought it was likely that they would commit atrocities,” Mr. Blinken said, adding: “We can’t become numb to this. We can’t normalize this.”

Outrage over the civilian deaths could move the needle for the European Union, which has so far rebuffed mounting calls from Ukraine, and by President Biden, to impose sanctions on Russian oil and gas, citing its dependency on Russian fuels.

In what would mark a significant shift in her country’s position, Germany’s defense minister, Christine Lambrecht, said that in light of the Bucha atrocities, the bloc should consider banning Russian gas imports. Charles Michel, the president of the European Council, said on Twitter that more European Union sanctions against Russia “are on their way.”

:nms:
https://mobile.twitter.com/nytimes/status/1510756559017680898

Kaal fucked around with this message at 01:19 on Apr 4, 2022

TheFluff
Dec 13, 2006

FRIENDS, LISTEN TO ME
I AM A SEAGULL
OF WEALTH AND TASTE

KitConstantine posted:

Well the Russians are pulling out of Sumy as fast as they can
https://twitter.com/Caucasuswar/status/1510758178841051136?t=cltPNtvS-4N6haNtEXFGUw&s=19
Note: the videos come up as sensitive but they just show large Russian tank convoys pulling out of Ukraine. Unless Russian failure is considered porn now.

First video looks to me like a good chunk of a BTG's worth of conventional heavy artillery, I counted 8 self-propelled howitzers (Msta-S) and I think one BTG is supposed to have 12 at least? Second video looks like self-propelled AA, probably Buks. Also interesting to see them towing things, I saw at least two BMP's being towed by other AFV's.

the popes toes
Oct 10, 2004

An earlier poster declared that he "was tired of Russia's poo poo."

It is increasingly difficult for nations to typify Russia's invasion as an affair of state, however illegal. Evidence of wanton genocide, given Europe's memory and vows to not repeat that crime, must be answered. I'm not sure what form that will take but it will represent hardening attitudes. Putin has crossed a very bright line. There is no return from that.

Putin will never again be warmly greeted in Europe. poo poo, even the US had fun with Nikita. That's over for Putin.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Archonex posted:

I saw a picture on twitter earlier that showed this. Some kid, couldn't be more than maybe six or seven had been stripped naked save for the white armband tied what appeared to have been very tightly around his throat. What I can only assume was his family were around his corpse, shot dead, having been piled into the room with him. loving horrifying.

I didn't notice what killed him. At the very least, it didn't seem like a bullet. So I assume he was deliberately strangled to death with the armband that he and the others were forced to wear while his family was shot. Which is generally a slow and very painful way to go if the person doesn't know what they're doing. So yeah.

Looks like they were trying to either kill as many people as possible on exit or remove fighting fit men out of some fascistic idea that only men will fight back at first glance. But as time goes on more and more evidence is coming out that they were straight up raping and pillaging so it probably runs deeper than that.

jesus i havent seen that one yet :(


i think its probably a mix of reasons, my guess is its a mix of "loving kill all the Ukrainians because they didn't greet us and are subhuman fucks" genocidish reason and also a mix of "anti partisan" bullshit mixed with "gently caress it the UA is coming and we will die if caught, do whatever you want everyone is killable or worse" like the IJA/IJN in Manilla.

Risky Bisquick
Jan 18, 2008

PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.



Buglord

quote:

The Ukrainian military intelligence described the incident as an ingenious way to "offer resistance to the occupying troops by all possible means".

Two Russians reportedly died on spot, while 28 other men were taken to an intensive care unit, the Ukrainian military said.

Ukrainian officials did not say when the incident took place, but said that 500 further troops from the same division, which is based in the Belgorod region bordering Ukraine, are now in hospital due to a "severe alcohol poisoning of an unknown nature".

I remember hearing about the poisoned baked goods, but spiking the alcohol seems new. Anyways that is a lot of troops to be out of combat at once

:nws: descriptions of warcriming
https://mobile.twitter.com/Mylovanov/status/1510636403784364038

While we are on war criming comparisons let’s not forget we haven’t yet seen all the ‘liberated’ towns

Dr. Arbitrary
Mar 15, 2006

Bleak Gremlin

Dapper_Swindler posted:

jesus i havent seen that one yet :(


i think its probably a mix of reasons, my guess is its a mix of "loving kill all the Ukrainians because they didn't greet us and are subhuman fucks" genocidish reason and also a mix of "anti partisan" bullshit mixed with "gently caress it the UA is coming and we will die if caught, do whatever you want everyone is killable or worse" like the IJA/IJN in Manilla.

In the first week or two, it's easy to imagine that there were a substantial number of "innocent" Russians who didn't want to war crime, thought they were out for training, or thought they were going to be tearing down swastika flags to liberate cities terrorized by Nazis.

I'm guessing those people have been filtered out, either by desertion, surrender, etc.

The people who are left know what they're doing, and they like it.

Pizdec
Dec 10, 2012

d64 posted:

Orbán, having secured a clear victory in the polls tonight, apparently cited a longish list of enemies of Hungary in his victory speech; the list included the left, the bureaucracy in Brussels, international Media, and president Zelenskyy.

:thaoldme:
Zelenskyy? :wtc: Is there a source?

Rigel
Nov 11, 2016

Untrained conscripts and poorly trained soldiers are also very likely to war crime. From our experience in Vietnam, we learned that you really have to make the rules of war a real focus as part of their training.

Marshal Prolapse
Jun 23, 2012

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Rigel posted:

Untrained conscripts and poorly trained soldiers are also very likely to war crime. From our experience in Vietnam, we learned that you really have to make the rules of war a real focus as part of their training.

Honestly one of the few good things to come out of Vietnam was the end of the draft and the transition to an all volunteer forces. It doesn’t eliminate war criming, but it sure helps…among tons of other positive benefits.

the popes toes
Oct 10, 2004

Pizdec posted:

Zelenskyy? :wtc: Is there a source?

It's gotten so that if someone says "Orban said it", whatever the gently caress it is, I believe it.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Dr. Arbitrary posted:

In the first week or two, it's easy to imagine that there were a substantial number of "innocent" Russians who didn't want to war crime, thought they were out for training, or thought they were going to be tearing down swastika flags to liberate cities terrorized by Nazis.

I'm guessing those people have been filtered out, either by desertion, surrender, etc.

The people who are left know what they're doing, and they like it.

i don't think its all of them. but Russians conscription is a loving bad fate on its own and authoritarian armies systems of abuse usually go down and then out. that being said, the poo poo i am seeing/reading/etc. goes into "holy gently caress this is out and out genocide/ethnic cleansing" territory.

ZombieLenin
Sep 6, 2009

"Democracy for the insignificant minority, democracy for the rich--that is the democracy of capitalist society." VI Lenin


[/quote]

KillHour posted:

Poland bought 250 M1A2 SEPv3 MBTs from us and deliveries are supposed to be this year. Everything I can find says these tanks have the full-fat Chobham armor with DU inserts. I think there's a newer, even better DU armor that has additional layers of graphite or something, and the ones going to Poland probably don't have the Trophy APS (Since Israel would have to agree to it)? But in any case, there are a good number of modern Abrams tanks already earmarked for shipment very near Russia's doorstep. Also we offered to give Greece 400 M1A1's for free like 10 years ago and nobody knows if they took them or not :shrug:

Even ignoring the DU, this is wrong. Export variants have composite armor, likely with glass or ceramic and steel sandwiched elements (exactly what it is isn't public, but it's not just steel).

Okay, but they do not have depleted uranium armor, which is my original point as to why, even in the United States was inclined to give Ukraine any variant of the M1, it would not ever be from the United States’ stockpiles of tanks using depleted uranium armor.

I was merely trying to stress that the export variants of the MBT are very different than the American version and use standard materials for their armor schema.

So it’s not now, nor ever going to be, a matter of “hey we have a bunch of M1’s lying around in storage for American use… let’s just send those over.”

Leaving aside completely the number of specialized mechanics the M1 requires—I believe it’s 3–that take 6 months to train, or the fact that the M1’s turbine engine, which uses 3 gallons of fuel for every mile on the road it traverses, requires a very specialized fuel similar to aviation jet fuel.

Giving the Ukrainians Army any version of the M1 is completely impractical, and giving them any home use American variant impossible.

gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

ZombieLenin posted:

Okay, but they do not have depleted uranium armor, which is my original point as to why, even in the United States was inclined to give Ukraine any variant of the M1, it would not ever be from the United States’ stockpiles of tanks using depleted uranium armor.

I was merely trying to stress that the export variants of the MBT are very different than the American version and use standard materials for their armor schema.

So it’s not now, nor ever going to be, a matter of “hey we have a bunch of M1’s lying around in storage for American use… let’s just send those over.”

Leaving aside completely the number of specialized mechanics the M1 requires—I believe it’s 3–that take 6 months to train, or the fact that the M1’s turbine engine, which uses 3 gallons of fuel for every mile on the road it traverses, requires a very specialized fuel similar to aviation jet fuel.

Giving the Ukrainians Army any version of the M1 is completely impractical, and giving them any home use American variant impossible.

Isn’t the idea of the M1s engine that it can run on anything from kerosene to bunker fuel?

the popes toes
Oct 10, 2004

Read more to understand why this non-NATO insect can be deadly to Russians.

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1510751701237739524

Grape
Nov 16, 2017

Happily shilling for China!

Archonex posted:

I saw a picture on twitter earlier that showed this. Some kid, couldn't be more than maybe six or seven had been stripped naked save for the white armband tied what appeared to have been very tightly around his throat. What I can only assume was his family were around his corpse, shot dead, having been piled into the room with him. loving horrifying.

I didn't notice what killed him. At the very least, it didn't seem like a bullet. So I assume he was deliberately strangled to death with the armband that he and the others were forced to wear while his family was shot. Which is generally a slow and very painful way to go if the person doesn't know what they're doing. So yeah.

That extremely sounds like some kind of rape related thing, jesus christ.

Big Mean Jerk
Jan 27, 2009

Well, of course I know him.
He's me.

the popes toes posted:

Read more to understand why this non-NATO insect can be deadly to Russians.

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1510751701237739524

Hunter Biden is weaponizing Ukrainian bees!

ZombieLenin
Sep 6, 2009

"Democracy for the insignificant minority, democracy for the rich--that is the democracy of capitalist society." VI Lenin


[/quote]

gay picnic defence posted:

Isn’t the idea of the M1s engine that it can run on anything from kerosene to bunker fuel?


To my knowledge the turbine runs on specialized fuel as its “standard” fuel when used by states who posses M1 variants. Whether or not ‘anything’ can fuel it in an emergency is something someone else would have to answer (there are former American tankers around here so maybe they can chime in); however my guess is that it may be able to run on something close to pure alcohol, which could be easily manufactured from just about any organic material in the case your logistical chain gets broken by say… nuclear war, but that wouldn’t be very good for the long term life of the engine.

KillHour
Oct 28, 2007


ZombieLenin posted:

Okay, but they do not have depleted uranium armor, which is my original point as to why, even in the United States was inclined to give Ukraine any variant of the M1, it would not ever be from the United States’ stockpiles of tanks using depleted uranium armor.

I literally just said it has the DU armor in my post.

Valtonen
May 13, 2014

Tanks still suck but you don't gotta hand it to the Axis either.
The turbine on m1 runs on multiple different fuels, you can totally put your standard t-72 diesel fuel in it and it works just fine.

The ”special fuel” you mean is JP8, the aircraft kerosene that U.S has adopted as its singular logistics make-things-go juice. since US had a massive budget they were able to reach the logistical Holy grail of ”everything flying abd driving runs on single type of fuel” barring few exemptions (the sergeant majors lawn mower and the school bus on post still takes MOGAS aka gasoline)

This is expensive since it puts an additional requirement to procurement process, But If feasible means you dont have problem of having X amount of trucks hauling fuel 1 and Y amount of trucks hauling fuel 2.

Tetraptous
Nov 11, 2004

Dynamic instability during transition.

gay picnic defence posted:

Isn’t the idea of the M1s engine that it can run on anything from kerosene to bunker fuel?

Yeah, turbines are pretty forgiving. Aircraft often use special fuel formulations for safety more than anything. The US Army runs everything on JP-8 to simplify logistics, but other operators like Australia just run on regular diesel because that’s what their other ground vehicles use. I’m sure there are some differences in overhaul cycles and whatnot, but the kind of fuel would not be Ukraine’s problem. The amount of fuel might be!

Like a lot of these weapon systems, technical knowledge for maintenance and training is probably the biggest barrier. The US might have the will to ship over Patriot, but not to have US advisors in the country to train and maintain the equipment. Maybe this stuff would have been useful if it had been shipped out last year, but there was an understandable concern about escalating the situation.

Cable Guy
Jul 18, 2005

I don't expect any trouble, but we'll be handing these out later...




Slippery Tilde

Big Mean Jerk posted:

Hunter Biden is weaponizing Ukrainian bees!
Wait... was Hunter Biden in goonswarm too....?

cr0y
Mar 24, 2005



the popes toes posted:

Read more to understand why this non-NATO insect can be deadly to Russians.

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1510751701237739524

Bees? Isn't it like below freezing in Ukraine right now?

Despera
Jun 6, 2011

Cable Guy posted:

Wait... was Hunter Biden in goonswarm too....?

Hes got the "hosed in the head' requirement down

Also how do we know the bees arent NATO aligned?

Despera fucked around with this message at 02:25 on Apr 4, 2022

Coquito Ergo Sum
Feb 9, 2021

ZombieLenin posted:

To my knowledge the turbine runs on specialized fuel as its “standard” fuel when used by states who posses M1 variants. Whether or not ‘anything’ can fuel it in an emergency is something someone else would have to answer (there are former American tankers around here so maybe they can chime in); however my guess is that it may be able to run on something close to pure alcohol, which could be easily manufactured from just about any organic material in the case your logistical chain gets broken by say… nuclear war, but that wouldn’t be very good for the long term life of the engine.

It can run on gasoline, diesel, marine diesel etc., with varying performance depending on the fuel. The US runs it on a jet fuel called JP-8. EDIT: Beaten twice by better responses.

Right now, if you're a country in the NATO sphere in need of a modern MBT, the Abrams is probably the best bet if you want to procure a modern MBT and easy if you're not in the mood rely on T-series upgrade programs like Poland and Ukraine have done. The big hurdle is that turbine engines require a lot of technical training and know-how to keep and maintain. The US has warehouses crammed with every variant as well as tons of ammo, support personnel (presumably also stored in the factories), and spare parts. The British are replacing the Chal 2 by the end of the decade. Germany and France are likely to end their production of their tanks if they end up figuring out what they want to do with their join MBT development program (and France loves pulling out of joint development projects), so maybe some stockpiles of Leopard 2s and Leclercs are coming? But the former has had some understated problems over the last twenty years and is getting some bad buzz about its performance in the middle east while the latter is a weirdly obscure machine that can't be supplied in Abrams or T-series numbers. The other promising tanks like Korea's K2 and Japan's Type 10 seem great on paper, but exporting them to Europe is out of the question. They may hand out licenses to produce either, but not ship them outside of their hemisphere. Turkey is licensing the K2 to produce its own tank.

I can try to answer a lot of tank questions to the best of my ability, but I work 12 hour shifts designing and producing parts that go into their electronic systems (though I prefer working on parts for things like pacemakers and other medical equipment- I feel weird making weapons) so I get like two hour windows to post before I have to go to bed. COVID has made my job a nightmare, and I feel like it's not going to get better any time soon. I have my first vacation in 3 years coming up, and it's only a week and I was begged not to turn my phone off. But hey, managed to finish Nanowrimo last year :smith:

EDIT 2: God that post was a mess. I need to go to bed.

Coquito Ergo Sum fucked around with this message at 02:35 on Apr 4, 2022

Sinister_Beekeeper
Oct 20, 2012

the popes toes posted:

Read more to understand why this non-NATO insect can be deadly to Russians.

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1510751701237739524

I have an alibi.

(Also, they probably trashed the hive so the bees went into "screw you" mode. Supposedly diesel exhaust will set them off but I think that is more of an urban legend.)

Cable Guy
Jul 18, 2005

I don't expect any trouble, but we'll be handing these out later...




Slippery Tilde
The date of the article and the mention of "Killer Bees" has me a little :hmmno:

Scapegoat
Sep 18, 2004

cr0y posted:

Bees? Isn't it like below freezing in Ukraine right now?

My rudimentary googling of the area mentioned says it's south of Kherson which isn't freezing at the moment. Highly likely it's an exaggerated story about some soldiers getting some nasty stings.

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!



Scapegoat posted:

My rudimentary googling of the area mentioned says it's south of Kherson which isn't freezing at the moment. Highly likely it's an exaggerated story about some soldiers getting some nasty stings.
I could see a unit having two guys die because they didn't know they were allergic to bee venom until Zelensky released his elite bee crime brigade fresh from the false-flag exercises with George Soros and the homonazi Left they tried to rob an apiary.

The_Franz
Aug 8, 2003

the popes toes posted:

An earlier poster declared that he "was tired of Russia's poo poo."

It is increasingly difficult for nations to typify Russia's invasion as an affair of state, however illegal. Evidence of wanton genocide, given Europe's memory and vows to not repeat that crime, must be answered. I'm not sure what form that will take but it will represent hardening attitudes. Putin has crossed a very bright line. There is no return from that.

Putin will never again be warmly greeted in Europe. poo poo, even the US had fun with Nikita. That's over for Putin.



Will it every be possible for Putin to set foot in a western country again without being immediately arrested and taken the the Hague? His future, should he set foot outside of Russia, is likely a cell next to Karadžič.

They could sit around and rue how they would have built glorious empires, free from undesirables, if only it weren't for that meddling NATO :argh:.

Ynglaur
Oct 9, 2013

The Malta Conference, anyone?

Valtonen posted:

The turbine on m1 runs on multiple different fuels, you can totally put your standard t-72 diesel fuel in it and it works just fine.

The ”special fuel” you mean is JP8, the aircraft kerosene that U.S has adopted as its singular logistics make-things-go juice. since US had a massive budget they were able to reach the logistical Holy grail of ”everything flying abd driving runs on single type of fuel” barring few exemptions (the sergeant majors lawn mower and the school bus on post still takes MOGAS aka gasoline)

This is expensive since it puts an additional requirement to procurement process, But If feasible means you dont have problem of having X amount of trucks hauling fuel 1 and Y amount of trucks hauling fuel 2.

Re-quoting to put recent Abrams question/answers into one post.

Armor-chat: The original M1 and early M1A1 had composite armor colloquially called Chobham Armor. Later, the US began adding depleted uranium plates to the front hull and front #1 side skirts. These were colloquially called M1A1 "Heavies". When I was stationed there in the early 2000's, the armor battalions in Korea still had these, though by the late 90s the US was rolling out M1A2s, all of which supposedly used composite armor and depleted uranium, or maybe DU as part of the composite armor.

Rumors abound about later versions of the M1A2 (SEP, SEP v2, etc.) getting upgrades to the underlying composite armor. It's very possible. I'm sure some GRU agent somewhere has the fun time of trying to lay out weight sensors on roads in Europe or something to try to weigh the darn things.

Sashimi
Dec 26, 2008


College Slice

Scapegoat posted:

My rudimentary googling of the area mentioned says it's south of Kherson which isn't freezing at the moment. Highly likely it's an exaggerated story about some soldiers getting some nasty stings.
Bees tend to get very lethargic and non-aggressive in near freezing temperatures, they usually don't do poo poo to anyone when it's cold outside. And as Cable Guy pointed out, it's probably an April Fool's joke anyways.

Despera
Jun 6, 2011
Putins been persona non grata in Europe every since malaysian air flight 17 lets be honest

Celexi
Nov 25, 2006

Slava Ukraini!

Despera posted:

Putins been persona non grata in Europe every since malaysian air flight 17 lets be honest

do you mean when russian "volunteers" shot down an airplne

the white hand
Nov 12, 2016

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

KillHour posted:

Same way Germany was dealt with after WWII - force them to forego a military and go salted earth on their political figures, then Marshall plan them into a western style democracy. It's not just about stopping Russia from doing this again but also about demonstrating what will happen to China if they try the same poo poo.

I think you mean "clean up the backgrounds of the worst offenders and incorporate them into your intelligence networks."

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

ISW's assessment for today (4/3):

quote:

Frederick W. Kagan, George Barros, and Karolina Hird

April 3, 3:30 pm ET

Ukraine has won the Battle of Kyiv. Russian forces are completing their withdrawal, but not in good order. Ukrainian forces are continuing to clear Kyiv Oblast of isolated Russian troops left behind in the retreat, which some Ukrainian officials describe as “lost orcs.” Russian forces had attempted to conduct an orderly retreat from their positions around Kyiv with designated covering forces supported by artillery and mines to allow the main body to withdraw. The main body of Russian troops has withdrawn from the west bank of the Dnipro and is completing its withdrawal from the east bank, but the retrograde has been sufficiently disorderly that some Russian troops were left behind.

The war is far from over and could still turn Russia’s way if the Russian military can launch a successful operation in eastern Ukraine. The current line of Russian occupation in southern and eastern Ukraine is still a significant gain in Russian-controlled territory since the start of the war. If a ceasefire or peace agreement freezes a line like the current front-line trace, Russia will be able to exert much greater pressure on Ukraine than it did before the invasion and may over time reassemble a more effective invasion force. Ukraine’s victory in the Battle of Kyiv is thus significant but not decisive.

The disorder of the Russian withdrawal suggests that at least some of the units now reconcentrating in Belarus and western Russia will remain combat ineffective for a protracted period. Russian troops attempting to refit after pulling back from around Kyiv will likely have to reconsolidate into their units, identify which soldiers are still present, sort out their equipment and assess its combat readiness, and generally reconstitute before they can even begin to receive replacements and new equipment and prepare for further combat operations.

Russian forces are likely abandoning the east bank of the Dnipro fully as well, withdrawing from around Chernihiv to the north and from Brovary to the east. Russian troops will likely seek to hold a salient around Konotop and Sumy long enough to allow their forces to complete their retrograde from near Kyiv but will then likely withdraw back to Russia from almost all their positions west of Kharkiv.

Moscow is attempting to concentrate reserves and some units pulled from the fight around Sumy to reinforce its offensive operations in the east but is encountering serious challenges in that effort. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on April 3 that Russian soldiers are resisting and in some cases refusing orders to enter or re-enter the war effort. The General Staff asserted that the two battalion tactical groups (BTGs) that moved from South Ossetia toward Donbas less than a week ago refused to fight and that plans to move them back to South Ossetia are in train.[1] The General Staff claimed that about 25 soldiers of the Russian 31st Separate Airborne Brigade refused orders to re-enter combat citing excessive losses.[2] The General Staff also asserted that commanders at various echelons in the Russian 3rd Motorized Rifle Division have refused to participate in combat operations.[3] We have no independent verification of these reports, but they are credible in light of the losses Russian forces have suffered and of independent reports of Russian soldiers killing commanders and commanders committing suicide from earlier in the conflict.

Russian efforts to advance its offensive operations in eastern Ukraine made limited progress in the past 24 hours. Fighting continues in Mariupol and on the Izyum-Severodonetsk axis.

Key Takeaways

Ukraine has won the Battle of Kyiv, and Russian forces are completing their withdrawals from both the east and the west banks of the Dnipro in disorder.

Russian forces retreating from around Kyiv will likely need considerable time before they can return to combat.

Incidents of refusals of orders to engage in combat operations among Russian units continue and may lead to the redeployment of two BTGs that had arrived near Donbas within the last few days to their home stations in South Ossetia.

The continued existence of an independent Ukrainian state with its capital in Kyiv is no longer in question at this time, although much fighting remains and the war could still turn Russia’s way.

Carnotaurus
Feb 27, 2006

meat-eating bull
The original source for the bee story is from a UK tabloid (Daily Star); probably shouldn't be taken seriously.

Hirsute
May 4, 2007
I've only recently become aware that a lot of Americans still think Russia is a communist country, despite the very public collapse of the Soviet Union happening 30 years ago. Anyone else experienced this? Like nobody seems to have advanced past the Cold War in history class

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Warbadger
Jun 17, 2006

Hirsute posted:

I've only recently become aware that a lot of Americans still think Russia is a communist country, despite the very public collapse of the Soviet Union happening 30 years ago. Anyone else experienced this? Like nobody seems to have advanced past the Cold War in history class

Yep. With China it's at least a bit more understandable to miss the whole klepto-capitalism thing because it's still the CCP running things, but Russia hasn't even tried pretending to be socialist/communist in a very long time.

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