READ OP! War in Ukraine: a distressed blender making too many margaritas at once

The Something Awful Forums > Archives > Comedy Goldmine > The Goodmine > READ OP! War in Ukraine: a distressed blender making too many margaritas at once

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Nessus: Dec 22, 2003; After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!

Discendo Vox posted:

One of the "great" things about this kind of work is that if you're targeting preexisting divisions and fringe groups (or if you're successful enough, creating your own), then eventually you build a domestic demand and market support for the messages, a self-radicalizing market loop. It's how entities like infowars can snowball. That said, very few of the outlets I've seen doing this can afford to be very big.

Yeah I'm old enough to remember when Infowars was a goof-rear end conspiracy thing like Art Bell's Coast to Coast. I never listened to it -- but Art Bell ain't tried to overthrow the government (that I know of).

# ? Apr 5, 2022 06:34

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# ? May 25, 2024 16:02

VideoGameVet: May 14, 2005; It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion. It is by the juice of Java that pedaling acquires speed, the teeth acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion.

Tomn posted:

While pro-Putin support is high right now, I can't help but wonder what will happen when the veterans from the front lines start coming back home with stories of chaos, loss, and retreat. Or not at all. That seems hard to entirely suppress.

I'm not claiming that this would necessarily end in Putin's overthrow, though, because those stories might go in multiple ways. Will the soldiers have developed a scapegoat, like "It's all that bastard Shoigu's fault, Russia can't live in peace as long as the traitor lives"? Could they have doubled down on the "Ukrainians are monsters, they poison us and hunt us like animals, even the children" rhetoric? Will they become committed pacifists, or demand a march on Moscow? There's probably a lot going on in the heads of the lower level soldiers and officers of the Russian Army now. I wonder what they're thinking and will continue to think when they go home to meet a narrative far different from what they've seen?

saw this:

"The Russian forces on the front line in Ukraine are apparently drawn overwhelmingly from ethnic groups within the Russian Federation, meaning that middle class Muscovite mothers are not going to be receiving bad news about their sons (who by and large dodge the draft through a combination of being in certain professions, higher education and/or bribery). The composition of Russian forces is also a product of poor pay and conditions meaning it's literally only a viable option if the alternative is shovelling yak poo poo for pennies."

# ? Apr 5, 2022 06:44

Redgrendel2001: Sep 1, 2006; you literally think a person saying their NBA team of choice being better than the fucking 76ers is a 'schtick'

a literal thing you think.

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1511180529143582727?t=1t5Y2D_p2nJsA-W0OGdvGg&s=19

100 for right now and ?maybe? up to 600.

edit: the 600 number probably is a mistake based on the name. 100 definitely confirmed.

Redgrendel2001 fucked around with this message at 07:27 on Apr 5, 2022

# ? Apr 5, 2022 06:49

AJA: Mar 28, 2015

Albino Squirrel posted:

https://twitter.com/PetterA62/status/1509089859075547138

# ? Apr 5, 2022 06:51

Mr. Apollo: Nov 8, 2000

Nessus posted:

Yeah I'm old enough to remember when Infowars was a goof-rear end conspiracy thing like Art Bell's Coast to Coast. I never listened to it -- but Art Bell ain't tried to overthrow the government (that I know of).

I often wonder what Coast to Coast would look like today if Art Bell was still around.

# ? Apr 5, 2022 06:56

Despera: Jun 6, 2011

Oh boy flying javelins! Sounds like fun.

# ? Apr 5, 2022 07:06

AJA: Mar 28, 2015

Despera posted:

its not genocide if its too hip

It don't mean a thing, if it ain't 'bout Putin
Ruble-ah, Ruble-ah, Ruble-ah, Ruble-ah, Ruble-ah, Ruble-ah, Ruble-ah, Ruble-ah

It don't mean a thing, not with all that Putin bling
Ruble-ah, Ruble-ah, Ruble-ah, Ruble-ah, Ruble-ah, Ruble-ah, Ruble-ah, Ruble-ah

It makes no difference
If it's moral or not
Just give that over that moolah
Everything you've got

# ? Apr 5, 2022 07:06

gay picnic defence: Oct 5, 2009; I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

Despera posted:

Oh boy flying javelins! Sounds like fun.

I wonder if it has a fragmentation section on that warhead. It would be pretty handy to be able to poke a few holes in anyone near the tank you�re about to turn into a single use mobile crematorium.

# ? Apr 5, 2022 07:14

Fill Baptismal: Dec 15, 2008

I don�t know how Reditt�s content management system works, but if you have account there, reporting this subreddit can�t be that bad an idea: [url] https://www.reddit.com/r/WarFakes/[/url]

# ? Apr 5, 2022 07:34

GABA ghoul: Oct 29, 2011

Fill Baptismal posted:

I don�t know how Reditt�s content management system works, but if you have account there, reporting this subreddit can�t be that bad an idea: [url] https://www.reddit.com/r/WarFakes/[/url]

Goddamn, that's some next level poo poo. That's "Auschwitz was a very successful fat camp and that's why everyone is so thin in the pictures" territory

# ? Apr 5, 2022 07:50

Antigravitas: Dec 8, 2019; Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:

Probably worth doing a NetzDG report actually.

Reddit doesn't care about holocaust denial and friends, but they do care about expanding into other markets, especially German. To get Reddit to not sponsor genocide denial you have to go to the press or to the law.

# ? Apr 5, 2022 07:55

Despera: Jun 6, 2011

Forum seems pretty dead anyway

# ? Apr 5, 2022 07:56

Alan Smithee: Jan 4, 2005; A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...

Mr. Mercury posted:

that sign said nothin' about not poopin' at russia

Norway should build a castle

And fart in their general direction

# ? Apr 5, 2022 08:11

Owling Howl: Jul 17, 2019

Deteriorata posted:

Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian.

May the sunflowrs bloom plentiful.

# ? Apr 5, 2022 08:45

Deltasquid: Apr 10, 2013; awww...
you guys made me ink!

THUNDERDOME

Family Values posted:

I would just like the Russians to leave Ukraine and go home. The less murder, pillage and rape that they do as they leave the better.

Sorry if that hurts anyone's feelings.

That's dangerous, escalatory rhetoric, my man. Don't you know Russia has nukes? If we do anything other than give the Russians free reign, Putin will nuke us (after all, he claims this and Putin has never lied about anything in the past, ever) so unfortunately we should all just do the rational thing and let Ukrainians get genocided.

# ? Apr 5, 2022 08:52

Tree Bucket: Apr 1, 2016; R.I.P.idura leucophrys

I can just picture Putin pressing the big red button. A thousand missile silo doors slide open, revealing various empty silos and notes reading "sorry, yacht fund getting low, IOU one icbm"

# ? Apr 5, 2022 09:05

Feliday Melody: May 8, 2021

Tree Bucket posted:

I can just picture Putin pressing the big red button. A thousand missile silo doors slide open, revealing various empty silos and notes reading "sorry, yacht fund getting low, IOU one icbm"

Judging by the shape of the rest of the military. Can't imagine what state their nuclear weapons are in.

# ? Apr 5, 2022 09:08

alex314: Nov 22, 2007

Even if 3/4 fail at any stage there's still plenty enough to go around.

# ? Apr 5, 2022 09:09

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

I am expecting Russia to bring some prisoners of war into front of cameras to totally voluntarily confess their participation in the massacre of Bucha under direct orders from Hunter Biden and Soros. After all, Stalin did the same after war wrt Katyn massacre and Putin is copying his playbook point by point.

# ? Apr 5, 2022 09:10

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

Baronjutter posted:

Are there any good current breakdowns on Putin's war funding at the moment post these initial sanctions? Like who are Russia's top customers, which countries are doing the most business with Russia still and could thus make the biggest impact if they did proper sanctions? I think the best thing people can do for the war right now is to heavily lean on these countries still doing massive business with Russia. We need to turn off the taps to Russia's economy, entirely.

It�s EU importing carbon fuels of various kind.

Rinkles posted:

Sorry, but did people here start calling for violence against all Russians?

No, I�d torpedo anyone doing that. Edgar Allen Ho, respectfully, is having a meltdown due their wife facing increasing xenophobia.

VideoGameVet posted:

saw this:

"The Russian forces on the front line in Ukraine are apparently drawn overwhelmingly from ethnic groups within the Russian Federation, meaning that middle class Muscovite mothers are not going to be receiving bad news about their sons (who by and large dodge the draft through a combination of being in certain professions, higher education and/or bribery). The composition of Russian forces is also a product of poor pay and conditions meaning it's literally only a viable option if the alternative is shovelling yak poo poo for pennies."

There�s it�s own twisted logic to it that tracks back to USSR. European Soviet troops were sent to Soviet Asia, and vice versa, under the assumption that they should be less sympathetic to the locals. That said, the largest demographic of the invading force is ethnic Russians from the western military district.

cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 09:15 on Apr 5, 2022

# ? Apr 5, 2022 09:10

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

alex314 posted:

Even if 3/4 fail at any stage there's still plenty enough to go around.

A Typhoon sub will sail up the Potomac and its skipper will manually detonate the warheads in D.C.

cinci zoo sniper posted:

There�s it�s own twisted logic to it that tracks back to USSR. European Soviet troops were sent to Soviet Asia, and vice versa, under the assumption that they should be less sympathetic to the locals. That said, the largest demographic of the invading force is ethnic Russians from the western military district.

This was already followed in Imperial Russia. Cossacks in particular were seen as effective crowd controllers.

# ? Apr 5, 2022 09:20

Captain Oblivious: Oct 12, 2007; I'm not like other posters

Grape posted:

This is exactly what I mean when I say this is going overboard.
You're suggesting trying to examine what's wrong with Russia is an inevitable slippery slope to blood gargling racism.
This is absurd, and as counter-productive to discussion as the same emotional reductionists you're messily attempting to target.

You aren't analyzing anything relevant to figuring out Russia as a culture writ large by identifying that the military is exactly what a military run by a literal organized mob of state oligarchs looting everything not nailed down is gonna look like. You're discussing an effect, not a cause.

And the point of bringing up that effect is to vilify and dehumanize a population as a whole and I don't for a second think you don't know that.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

# ? Apr 5, 2022 09:36

Shibawanko: Feb 13, 2013

what are the odds right now that the eastern push by russia will be successful? people here have been fairly optimistic about beating the russians back but thats not what most of the major newspapers and zelenskyy himself seem to say

it seems that the main reason the kyiv offensive failed was that supply lines and logistics were just unsustainable, poorly organized and prey to ukrainian hit&run attacks, will that be true in the east and south too?

# ? Apr 5, 2022 10:24

steinrokkan: Apr 2, 2011; Soiled Meat

I find it hard to believe Russia will be able to reform the units that retreated in a timely manner, and especially that they will be combat effective from a morale standpoint the second time they are thrown into the fire, after the disaster of the first attempt.

# ? Apr 5, 2022 10:28

Paxman: Feb 7, 2010

There's no reason to assume a putsch that replaced Putin would install anyone better.

People with the means to replace him in the military or security services won't necessarily oppose his fantasies about restoring the Russian empire. They're more likely to be mad that he lost in Ukraine, not that he tried to invade it.

To add (given recent debate) I'm not denying at all that other views exist in Russia, it just doesn't look like people with those views are anywhere near power.

# ? Apr 5, 2022 10:33

fatherboxx: Mar 25, 2013

Shibawanko posted:

what are the odds right now that the eastern push by russia will be successful? people here have been fairly optimistic about beating the russians back but thats not what most of the major newspapers and zelenskyy himself seem to say

it seems that the main reason the kyiv offensive failed was that supply lines and logistics were just unsustainable, poorly organized and prey to ukrainian hit&run attacks, will that be true in the east and south too?

Mariupol will probably fall and Russia would take as a chance to declare victory and set up DNR in the borders of Donetsk oblast along with reeducation camps. Ukraine needs a lot of weapons to go on offense that it currently doesnt have and Western shipments are going to take time.

Encirclement of Ukranian forces in the east is not certain, chuds have been promising it for a month at this point.

In the grand scheme of things, obviously, Russia has already lost and in a zugzwang spiral regardless of operational victories.

# ? Apr 5, 2022 10:39

a podcast for cats: Jun 22, 2005; Dogs reading from an artifact buried in the ruins of our civilization, "We were assholes- " and writing solemnly, "They were assholes."; Soiled Meat

There was a really well written and insightful effortpost by a mod in the C-SPAM thread a month ago.

I bookmarked it when I originally read it and came across it again yesterday. It got lost in the cesspool, but it gives very nuanced view on the conflict and what "denazification" may mean. I think it's worth a read.

vyelkin posted:

Get ready for a wall of text because I finally put most of my thoughts about one part of this war down in one place.

Western media have started publishing pieces about what they think a peace deal could look like. Anatol Lieven in the Guardian hits a lot of the same notes as posters in this thread:

Overall, I think the points he makes are very reasonable. A peace deal that lifted sanctions on Russia in exchange for Ukraine agreeing formal neutrality, agreeing to never stage missiles, and agreeing to recognize Russian sovereignty over Crimea (which would imo likely require something like granting indefinite transit rights for a land corridor and a formal deal on access to water from the North Crimean Canal) would have to count as a huge win for Ukraine. It does, however, rely on a big ask, which is for the West to not be loving idiots who lust for death. I wouldn't be surprised at all if, if a deal like that was on the table, the West somehow tanked it by insisting on more maximal pro-Ukrainian demands (like, for instance, refusing to recognize the annexation of Crimea because that's appeasement) before lifting sanctions.

The biggest sticking point, in my opinion, is likely to be Russia's continuing demand for "denazification," because it still remains unclear what Putin means by that. In the ideal world where we would all like to live, this would mean banning Nazi groups, eradicating their influence from Ukrainian politics, and formally guaranteeing minority rights like the right to use the Russian language. That's how Lieven chooses to frame it in this article, and it would be wonderful if that's what it really means. However, I don't think that's an accurate account of how Putin views denazification.

My impression, based on how Putin has been talking about Ukraine over the past year (dating at least as far back as his article on Russian-Ukrainian history from last summer), is that Putin sees the entire Ukrainian state since Maidan as a Nazi regime. He repeatedly refers to Maidan as a coup d'etat by Nazis and other radical nationalists who have imposed their radical Nazi will onto the innocent, unsuspecting people of Ukraine. This view of Ukrainian political elites as all Nazis applies to the people who overthrew Yanukovych, it applies to the Poroshenko government, and it applies to the Zelensky government. This is the cspam thread, we all know the details of Nazis and far-right movements being present on the Maidan and influential in Ukrainian politics and the military since then. I'm not going to rehash all that. But I want to give some context for why I think Putin thinks this way, and why I think there's evidence to support this, and then say what that likely means for the denazification demand.

First and foremost, Putin's Russia has an unusual relationship to Nazism that differs from the way most cspammers are likely to think about Nazism. Under Putin, Russia has reconstructed its official version of history, and studies have shown that this reconstruction has also made its way into Russians' popular understandings (i.e., it isn't just an official narrative, it's also something that a lot of ordinary people have internalized to some degree). Putin's narrative of Russian history is defined by victory in WW2, which is seen as the pivotal, defining moment in Russian history. The Putin-era state is seen as the successor to the strong Soviet state that was necessary to unite the Russian nation and defeat Nazism in WW2. This narrative is stripped of the ideological context of socialism vs. fascism or the pivotal role of the Communist Party, which were central to the Soviet historical narrative. The Putin-era narrative preserves the symbols and triumphalism of the Soviet era but strips it of the ideology, instead framing it as a national struggle of Russia against Nazi Germany. It even injects current nationalist motifs that had no place in the Soviet-era narratives, like the centrality of the Orthodox Church, backwards into history. This narrative, however, fails to actually teach what Nazism was or why the Nazis wanted to invade the USSR, because it lacks the ideological basis to explain fascism vs. socialism. Putin's Russian state has no interest in glorifying communism or condemning fascism, because it is an anticommunist state whose aggressive reactionary nationalism lands closer to the ideological interests of the Nazis than of the communists (see, for one of countless examples, his reactionary speech from October condemning minority rights like protecting trans children and instead advocating for traditional models of the nation and family). It does raise up Stalin as a leader, but it does so in a way that glorifies him as a leader of the broad Russian nation rather than as a leader of Soviet communism. The scholar Nikolay Koposov describes that as follows:

The new Russian myth of WW2 also marginalizes the Holocaust and the specific nature of Nazi racial ideology in favour of promoting the broader Russian nation as the primary victims of Nazi aggression. In this narrative, Russia is both the principal victim and the principal hero in the story of WW2, because it was the Russian nation that was the primary target of the Nazi campaign for domination and it was the Russian nation that ultimately defeated the Nazis. By making this the primary myth of WW2 and by making WW2 the defining moment of the history of the Russian nation, this makes Russia an antifascist nation by default, without ever having to actually examine what antifascism means as an ideology. Koposov, again, explains the ramifications of this:

According to this model of the Russian nation, the defining attribute of Nazism is not antisemitism or racial hierarchy or reactionary social policy, the defining attribute of Nazism is being anti-Russian. Russia brands all its enemies fascist because its enemies are anti-Russian and Russia is by definition an antifascist nation. Yet by stripping out all the ideological content of what antifascism actually means, this simply sets up an idea of a civilizational clash between antifascist Russia and the fascist West, despite that clash actually being defined by geopolitics rather than by ideological struggle, as it was during the Soviet era when the USSR legitimately offered a contradictory ideology. Putin's reactionary right-wing nationalism, by contrast, has many similarities to reactionary right-wing nationalism in the West, except for the sticking point that Russia defines all its enemies as fascists by default.

Okay, back to Ukraine. How does this myth of WW2 and Putin's sense that the Ukrainian regime since 2014 are Nazis fit together? Well, the Ukrainian state since 2014 is an anti-Russian regime, and, frankly, justifiably so since Russia took advantage of the chaos in 2014 to annex Crimea and support the separatists in the southeast. No matter what your views on those actions, I hope everyone sees how they could lead Ukrainians to see Russia as an enemy country. This period since 2014 has coincided with a huge upsurge in Ukrainian nationalism. As Vyacheslav Likhachev writes in a recent piece on the Ukrainian right:

The combination of the upsurge in Ukrainian national identity since 2014 and the context of that happening during a constant war with Russia has pushed Ukrainians and Ukrainian national identity towards aligning with the West more than ever before, and has pushed them towards anti-Russian sentiment more than ever before. Because the current Russian definition of Nazism revolves around being anti-Russian, I think this has meant that Putin interprets this move away from aligning with Russia as the fault of the Nazi minority in Ukraine, and contributes to the sense that the Ukrainian government is a Nazi, anti-Russian government. In one of his speeches, Putin refers to the perceived Nazi takeover of Ukraine as "the anti-Russian project," which is a very revealing turn of phrase. He also repeatedly conveys a narrative that the Ukrainians are properly part of the broader Russian nation, that they have a shared history and identity, but that they have been unjustly cut off from Russia by this anti-Russian Nazi project. Ironically, Putin's own actions by invading parts of Ukraine probably did more to "Nazify" Ukraine (read: turn Ukraine anti-Russian) than anything in Ukrainian domestic politics, by thrusting the most anti-Russian parts of the Ukrainian nation to the forefront of both politics and the military and by giving the Ukrainian people a Russian Other to define themselves against.

But, it goes without saying, most Ukrainians are not Nazis. However, they do now have a much stronger sense of Ukrainian nationhood than they did 10 years ago, and that nationhood is increasingly tied to the anti-Russian direction of their state - even more so since last week's invasion. If Russia's military involvement in Ukraine since 2014 played a key role in the "nazification" (read: anti-Russianization) of Ukraine, then last week's invasion will have done the same but taken to a whole new level.

So what does it mean to denazify Ukraine, from the perspective of the Kremlin? I think Lieven is wrong to say that banning Ukraine's actually existing Nazi groups and ending persecution of the Russian minority would be enough, because I think Putin sees the entire anti-Russian direction of the Ukrainian state since 2014 as Nazification. If I'm right, then denazification has to go much further than that or be considered a failure, because it has to reverse the anti-Russian direction of the Ukrainian state since 2014, which also means undoing the upsurge in Ukrainian nationalism since then. If done by force, which I think it would have to be because the majority of Ukrainians are unlikely to go along with it, that interpretation of "denazification" is a recipe for widespread violence directed against Ukrainian civilians and civilian institutions, with the goal of stamping out the current interpretation of the Ukrainian nation.

I think this might also explain some of the peculiarities of the war. Realities on the ground are difficult to decipher because all the information we're getting at the moment is propaganda from one side or another, but I see a lot of stories claiming that Putin and the Russian military have been surprised by the level of resistance they're facing, both from the Ukrainian military and from the civilian population. I still think they're likely to win in the long run, but based on those stories and analyses I find it convincing that they thought it would be quick and easy. That makes sense to me in this paradigm. Putin seems to legitimately believe the narratives he's put forward to justify the war. He seems to legitimately believe that Ukrainians and Russians are one people but that Ukrainians have been unjustly cut off from Russia by a small group of unpopular Nazis who seized on legitimate popular discontent in 2014 to take control by duping the Ukrainian people. That understanding of the situation seems to have led to a sense that the Russian troops would be greeted as liberators freeing Ukraine from Nazi occupation, rather than the reality that they're being greeted as invaders and occupiers and facing widespread resistance not just from small groups of Nazi soldiers, but also from the rest of Ukraine's military and large numbers of angry civilians.

There are two things to take away from that. One is that they seemed to legitimately believe in their own narrative of "we're not going to occupy Ukraine, we're just going to do a quick denazification and leave again." The second is that they seem to be readjusting their plans and their narratives based on the higher level of resistance: switching to besieging cities and conducting a higher level of violence against civilian targets on the military level, and switching to new narratives about the Ukrainian people on the political level. Statements coming out of Russian leaders are now saying that Ukrainians have been "brainwashed," which is a really bad sign. It means they're now starting to see the "nazification" of Ukraine as not just something that affects replaceable elites, but something that affects the larger civilian population. The implications of that are horrific.

So, to put it simply, I think it is very unlikely that Russia's likely goals under the auspices of "denazification" can be accomplished without horrific violence, because I think Ukraine's strong sense of nationality now will lead to resistance against any efforts to eradicate the changes that have taken place in Ukrainian nationalism since 2014. Even if Ukraine surrendered tomorrow and agreed to all Russia's demands in an effort to end the fighting, I don't think pro-Russian regime change in Kyiv would be tolerated by the anti-Russian majority, and I think that will inevitably lead to some form of ongoing Russian occupation and Ukrainian resistance, whether against a literal Russian occupation regime or a Russia-backed client government. Either way, I think widespread ongoing violence is extremely likely from both Russian occupiers and Ukrainian resistance. As long as Russia insists on "denazification" as a precondition for peace, then a peace deal does not mean the end of the violence.

As a result, I think the Ukrainian government is very unlikely to agree to Russian ceasefire terms, and I think the war will continue as a result. That's also why I don't think it's as easy as saying "Ukraine should agree to the ceasefire to save lives," because if they agree to a ceasefire that includes this kind of "denazification" demands, which it seems likely that Russia will insist upon, then they are agreeing to a level of ongoing violence that is going to continue to cost lives for years and that they can interpret, not without justification, as agreeing to the destruction of the Ukrainian nation as it currently exists. As much as I want the fighting to stop and people to stop dying, I also understand why both the Ukrainian leadership and the Ukrainian people are unwilling to give up and accept Russian terms, because they justifiably see this as an existential fight for their existence as a people against an imperialist and potentially genocidal aggressor. And frankly, I find it hard to blame them for that. I want nothing more than for people to stop dying, but I also recognize that this is hardly the first example in history where a people refused to lay down their weapons and admit defeat even when it would have saved lives. The Vietnamese could have given up in 1945 and accepted French imperialism, and a lot fewer people would have died, but instead they fought for 30 years to win national independence because they thought the enormous costs, in the end, would be worth it. The Palestinians could give up and accept Israeli domination, and a lot fewer people might die, but instead they continue fighting because they think that if they could win their independence, in the end the enormous costs would be worth it. It is a horrific tragedy and it is leading to a horrific amount of death, but I find it hard to blame Ukrainians for looking at their current situation and making a similar choice, even if it breaks my heart to know that they're likely going to lose and things are going to be even worse as a result.

# ? Apr 5, 2022 10:40

d64: Jan 15, 2003

Shibawanko posted:

what are the odds right now that the eastern push by russia will be successful? people here have been fairly optimistic about beating the russians back but thats not what most of the major newspapers and zelenskyy himself seem to say

Personally I'm somewhat optimistic, but on the other hand, Russians could have some low-hanging fruit in terms of getting their act together. Experts are saying they have been fighting not according to their doctrine nor to their strengths; who knows if they'll manage to put their heads together and start doing more of the stuff that has a better chance of working. Again, it did happen in the Winter war.

# ? Apr 5, 2022 10:41

GABA ghoul: Oct 29, 2011

Paxman posted:

There's no reason to assume a putsch that replaced Putin would install anyone better.

People with the means to replace him in the military or security services won't necessarily oppose his fantasies about restoring the Russian empire. They're more likely to be mad that he lost in Ukraine, not that he tried to invade it.

To add (given recent debate) I'm not denying at all that other views exist in Russia, it just doesn't look like people with those views are anywhere near power.

It really depends. If a coup is followed by public unrest like the Arab spring or the color revolutions there is no way to tell how it's going to end up. The Belarusian protests were kinda impressive, despite the harsh repressions like beating people to death, abductions, torture, etc. and might have succeeded if Russia didn't interfere. People just need some kind of sign of hope.

# ? Apr 5, 2022 10:42

fnox: May 19, 2013

I don't think they can realistically expect to trounce over the Ukrainians with a push to the East like they wanted in the beginning. They've lost the initiative, they've been repelled in their initial thrust and now have to fight a fully mobilized army. The reason why modern conflicts seem to be brief is due to how difficult it is to defend against the speed and violence of a combined forces advance, but now that Ukraine has successfully stalled them, they get to dictate the pace.

We're sort of getting into uncharted territory here, of a nuclear state engaging in all-out war with a comparably modern military, so it's hard to predict exactly what will happen. What is clear is that now Russia will have to fight tooth and nail for any territorial gains they want to achieve. They're looking at a grinding, lengthy conflict if they want to achieve their original strategic objectives.

# ? Apr 5, 2022 10:42

PerilPastry: Oct 10, 2012

Shibawanko posted:

what are the odds right now that the eastern push by russia will be successful? people here have been fairly optimistic about beating the russians back but thats not what most of the major newspapers and zelenskyy himself seem to say

it seems that the main reason the kyiv offensive failed was that supply lines and logistics were just unsustainable, poorly organized and prey to ukrainian hit&run attacks, will that be true in the east and south too?

I'd love to know this too.

But logistics aside, one major challenge for Russia is going to be force availability and attrition

https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1510681889820004359?s=20&t=Aj-uDYjdhQSeSDVaBMQp6A

Particularly since Putin seems to regard full mobilization for "the special operation" as too politically risky; to the point that they're making a point of not sending their regular Spring conscripts to the front. Although we can probably expect a number of these to be nudged into contract service instead
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1509546924042563585?s=20&t=OWsejalqBRbzy5tsgJbi-A

# ? Apr 5, 2022 10:44

Alan Smithee: Jan 4, 2005; A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...

How long would it take to get Germany�s kraftwerks up and running

# ? Apr 5, 2022 10:44

Chalks: Sep 30, 2009

Shibawanko posted:

what are the odds right now that the eastern push by russia will be successful? people here have been fairly optimistic about beating the russians back but thats not what most of the major newspapers and zelenskyy himself seem to say

it seems that the main reason the kyiv offensive failed was that supply lines and logistics were just unsustainable, poorly organized and prey to ukrainian hit&run attacks, will that be true in the east and south too?

From reading various analyst opinions it sounds like Russia's best bet militarily would be to dig in and try to retain captured territory in a peace deal. Ukraine has been successful in repelling Russian attacks but will probably have much more difficulty going on the offensive and dislodging entrenched Russian defensive positions. Mariupol will fall eventually and they will have secured a land bridge to Crimea and its water supply which is not nothing.

Ukraine's best bet would be successfully repelling an all out Russian offensive, the aftermath of which would likely cause a collapse in various places in the front line and allow Ukraine to more easily counterattack and rout defensive positions.

From Russian rhetoric it seems likely we'll be seeing some large Russian offensives, so if Ukraine can continue to be successful repelling them then they could do very well.

# ? Apr 5, 2022 10:46

Failed Imagineer: Sep 22, 2018

Alan Smithee posted:

How long would it take to get Germany’s kraftwerks up and running

I'm afraid Florian Schneider died in 2020

# ? Apr 5, 2022 10:47

Charlz Guybon: Nov 16, 2010

alex314 posted:

Even if 3/4 fail at any stage there's still plenty enough to go around.

Yeah, but 1/3rds were predicted to fail completely and another 1/3 were predicted to go way off target even at the height of Soviet power. So... if that was the ceiling, what is the floor?

# ? Apr 5, 2022 10:48

Rust Martialis: May 8, 2007; At night, Bavovnyatko quietly comes to the occupiers’ bases, depots, airfields, oil refineries and other places full of flammable items and starts playing with fire there

Alan Smithee posted:

How long would it take to get Germany�s kraftwerks up and running

They're in Italy in May

# ? Apr 5, 2022 10:50

with a rebel yell she QQd: Jan 18, 2007; Villain

Failed Imagineer posted:

I'm afraid Florian Schneider died in 2020

This is the last thing I wanted to learn from this thread.

# ? Apr 5, 2022 10:50

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

# ? Apr 5, 2022 10:51

Randarkman: Jul 18, 2011

Paxman posted:

There's no reason to assume a putsch that replaced Putin would install anyone better.

People with the means to replace him in the military or security services won't necessarily oppose his fantasies about restoring the Russian empire. They're more likely to be mad that he lost in Ukraine, not that he tried to invade it.

To add (given recent debate) I'm not denying at all that other views exist in Russia, it just doesn't look like people with those views are anywhere near power.

While true for Russia, if a putsch did replace Putin, it would probably be because of the political and economic costs and risks of the war in Ukraine. So while a Putin replacement would probably offer no short-term improvement for ordinary Russians in terms of civil and political rights, its likely that such a new government would seek to somehow disengage from the war and attempt to re-integrate the economy into the world (while keeping a harsh lid on popular discontent).

At least that's how I see it, unless it's a putsch by people who believe Putin is being too soft, then all bets are off.

# ? Apr 5, 2022 10:52

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# ? May 25, 2024 16:02

Angryhead: Apr 4, 2009; Don't call my name
Don't call my name
Alejandro

a podcast for cats posted:

There was a really well written and insightful effortpost by a mod in the C-SPAM thread a month ago.

I bookmarked it when I originally read it and came across it again yesterday. It got lost in the cesspool, but it gives very nuanced view on the conflict and what "denazification" may mean. I think it's worth a read.

Thanks for sharing, that's a good post.

# ? Apr 5, 2022 10:55

The Something Awful Forums > Archives > Comedy Goldmine > The Goodmine > READ OP! War in Ukraine: a distressed blender making too many margaritas at once

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