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ZombieLenin
Sep 6, 2009

"Democracy for the insignificant minority, democracy for the rich--that is the democracy of capitalist society." VI Lenin


[/quote]

Randarkman posted:

I've honestly never encountered this in the wild I've always been under the assumption that gluten stuff was for legitimate allergy reasons or similarly people who need to avoid it in their diet for more general health reasons. I assume the idea of a gluten-free fad is mostly exaggerated over-reporting on a minority of loud people somewhere.

Celiacs is very real, if very uncommon. The fad bit, as someone else said, was 1 in 3 people claiming to be “gluten intolerant” because… the internet.

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TheFluff
Dec 13, 2006

FRIENDS, LISTEN TO ME
I AM A SEAGULL
OF WEALTH AND TASTE
The Ukrainians probably don't want to risk a major mechanized offensive. Their heavy equipment is limited and for the moment irreplaceable, and if the Russians get a breakthrough somewhere they're in big trouble if they don't have mechanized forces of their own to counterattack with, especially once the mud starts to dry up. So for now I think they'll mostly stay cautious. They've already acknowledged that if the Russians dig in they don't really have the means to dig them out.

I think this is going to be a war of attrition for a while now and I honestly don't know which side will give first.

Brownieftw
Nov 23, 2011

Fluff master

fatherboxx posted:

That would be very effective but would result in a mass execution

I don't know, just existing seems to be grounds for mass execution at this point in time.

Xachariah
Jul 26, 2004

ZombieLenin posted:

Celiacs is very real, if very uncommon. The fad bit, as someone else said, was 1 in 3 people claiming to be “gluten intolerant” because… the internet.

Yeah, it's frequently touted as a lifehack so someplace will have to prepare your food from scratch with new pots and pans, so it's "fresher". That or someone had a nocebo effect because they ate a pizza or lots of FODMAPs sometime and had bad gas after. Eye-rolling, but at least the celiacs now have a lot more choice thanks to them, though it's double-edged as some people think they're putting it on for special treatment.

Risky Bisquick
Jan 18, 2008

PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.



Buglord
Brown Moses et co getting all the war criming footage

drone overhead view showing moment when man on bike in Bucha died
:nms:
code:
https://mobile.twitter.com/bellingcat/status/1511284174921076736
:nms:

cinci zoo sniper posted:

:nms: ATGM blows up a helicopter

https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1511294675818328065

Fly low to avoid radar
Fly low to avoid manpads
Get hit by beam riding ATGM :aaaaa:

Risky Bisquick fucked around with this message at 14:08 on Apr 5, 2022

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

Anne Frank Funk posted:

Been battling with whether to write this or not, since this war is loving horrific, plus the subject of this post has long been turned into a joke the world over. But, you know, let's have some good news as well. I'm a volunteer for the Polish Celiac Society (you know, the dreaded GLUTEN FREE diet freaks <not really>). Wouldn't you know it, celiac disease and the real medical need for a gluten free diet is a thing in Ukraine as well. Thus, since day 1 of the war, we have organized weekly transports of tons of all sorts of gf food to Ukraine (Lviv, Kyiv, Vinnytsia mainly). Luckily all the transports got through and found their way to volunteers of Ukrainian Celiac Society, who parcel the food out and send it to people in need. Thousands have been helped in this way. My org is currently occupied with almost nothing else than the logistical effort. Eight transports went out so far. We are not the only ones doing that. Eastern European celiac orgs and independent activists are all doing what they can to provide people with food they can't otherwise find.

Ready for transport:





In Ukraine:


It's nice to see happy faces in these troubling times, keep up the great work. :thumbsup:

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

Deltasquid posted:

Do we have any military analysis or takes on what the Ukrainians could do to launch offensives in the South ans East?


Trent Terelko of tire/logistics posting fame did a long **extremely optimistic** thread on what a Ukrainian victory in the south could look like that is fairly well reasoned, but definitely take with a grain of salt. Note he has no special sources in Ukraine and openly says this is all a prediction, so while the phrasing is very concrete nothing in the thread itself is

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1511108357712719872?s=20&t=k1xdxp26o6c_5krYDJYZow
Threadreader link for the Twitter-avoiders: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1511108357712719872.html

tl;dr: hit the airbases as much as possible, use drone spotters and long range artillery strikes/local mortars to soften things up, then have light infantry infiltrate and clean up. Note that there's evidence that the Russian secure comms have been compromised in a lot of ways, and this can be used to feed false information in the south as it was used in the north - article: https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htecm/articles/20220328.aspx

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Risky Bisquick posted:

Brown Moses et co getting all the war criming footage

drone overhead view showing moment when man on bike in Bucha died
:nms:
code:
https://mobile.twitter.com/bellingcat/status/1511284174921076736
:nms:

How do we know this was't an Azov anti-tank bike? :jerkbag:



I thought it was pretty inevitable that some drone or security camera footage will turn up eventually to show their crimes. Bu


By the way, does anyone know if there is an archive of satellite photos like the ones BM used there? I wanted to check out some specific areas around Bucha where our friend used to live.

Coquito Ergo Sum
Feb 9, 2021

Antigravitas posted:

What the gently caress. Using a SACLOS ATGM system on a helicopter is Arma 3 tier fuckery.

I shot down a MiG with a TOW in War Thunder the other day and thought I was a god.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug
Well that's another Ka-50 they are not getting back.

i am a moron
Nov 12, 2020

"I think if there’s one thing we can all agree on it’s that Penn State and Michigan both suck and are garbage and it’s hilarious Michigan fans are freaking out thinking this is their natty window when they can’t even beat a B12 team in the playoffs lmao"

Anne Frank Funk posted:

Been battling with whether to write this or not, since this war is loving horrific, plus the subject of this post has long been turned into a joke the world over. But, you know, let's have some good news as well. I'm a volunteer for the Polish Celiac Society (you know, the dreaded GLUTEN FREE diet freaks <not really>). Wouldn't you know it, celiac disease and the real medical need for a gluten free diet is a thing in Ukraine as well. Thus, since day 1 of the war, we have organized weekly transports of tons of all sorts of gf food to Ukraine (Lviv, Kyiv, Vinnytsia mainly). Luckily all the transports got through and found their way to volunteers of Ukrainian Celiac Society, who parcel the food out and send it to people in need. Thousands have been helped in this way. My org is currently occupied with almost nothing else than the logistical effort. Eight transports went out so far. We are not the only ones doing that. Eastern European celiac orgs and independent activists are all doing what they can to provide people with food they can't otherwise find.

Ready for transport:





In Ukraine:


You’re a good person and thank you for making a positive impact on these poor kids stuck in a warzone

Risky Bisquick
Jan 18, 2008

PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.



Buglord
Warcriming continues

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1511324392743186435

:nms: artillery hits ambulance depot, no people visible
code:
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1511317564969869314

d64
Jan 15, 2003
Before the invasion, many putinists claimed Putin's speech on Feb 21st was being intentionally mistranslated and misrepresented in western media to make it seem warlike. Interested in seeing if the same train of reasoning will be used with Sergeitsev's essay.

E: Someone on twitter pointed out - don't know if it's true - that the guy himself lives in Italy.

d64 fucked around with this message at 14:22 on Apr 5, 2022

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Risky Bisquick posted:

Warcriming continues

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1511324392743186435

:nms: artillery hits ambulance depot, no people visible
code:
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1511317564969869314

Is that the one in the children's hospital?

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

Hell yeah Czech Republic and Slovakia - I wonder if that air strip on the border is pretty important after all :thunk:
https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1511331834663247873?s=20&t=MjMBaZB9NdD5o01RsTw3aQ

Also new map from UK Defense Intelligence:
https://twitter.com/ak_mack/status/1511325703526092800?s=20&t=MjMBaZB9NdD5o01RsTw3aQ
The units by Kyiv got mauled while they were there and as they left. No matter what Russia thinks I can't see those troops being combat-effective again any time soon.

Risky Bisquick
Jan 18, 2008

PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.



Buglord

OddObserver posted:

Is that the one in the children's hospital?

Footage is supposedly mykolaiv from yesterday

Count Roland
Oct 6, 2013

MassiveSky posted:

The unconfirmed twitter reports of invaders being poisoned from "borrowed" supplies.

E: Also, if you've ever made moonshine you probably know what *not* to do, and what *not* to do is make methanol.
I imagine that moonshining is quite prevalent in Ukraine as it is in most of Eastern Europe.

I'm going to go on the record and say leaving poison for people is a Bad Idea, not least because your own side also likes food.

I make spirits for a living and methanol poisoning sounds like a pretty laborious way to go. Ethanol displaces methanol in your body, which means you can't just put a few drops of methanol in a vodka bottle. The bottle needs to be methanol at a fairly high percentage. But only small amounts of methanol are produced from fermentation, so you'd need to be distilling an awful lot of spirits to produce much effective poison.

Plus you know it invites retaliation on civilians. And if you argue civilians are already being killed then remember that it can always, always get worse.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Count Roland posted:

Plus you know it invites retaliation on civilians. And if you argue civilians are already being killed then remember that it can always, always get worse.

Given that they are already murdering civilians WITHOUT being poisoned, I doubt they need any justification for retaliation at all.

While its a good callout that there's a possibility that it could catch civilians who consume it, lets not pretend Russia needs an excuse.

ImpAtom
May 24, 2007

No Ukrainian citizens are reading SA for murder tips so it is just pure bloodlust posting anyway.

One Russian is but Putin only reads Traditional Games and ADTRW anyway.

Deltasquid
Apr 10, 2013

awww...
you guys made me ink!


THUNDERDOME

ImpAtom posted:

One Russian is but Putin only reads Traditional Games and ADTRW anyway.

Putin definitely skimmed over the morale rules in whatever historical wargames he plays

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

Didn't see this yet - the updated EU sanctions proposal is out
https://twitter.com/jsuedekum/status/1511305870621265921?s=20&t=MjMBaZB9NdD5o01RsTw3aQ
Not far enough imo, but transitioning away from Russian oil will be tricky.

The semiconductors/high tech machinery ban is very good though, especially since Russia has little to no domestic production of such and China is not a reliable replacement partner for that stuff.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

KitConstantine posted:

Didn't see this yet - the updated EU sanctions proposal is out
https://twitter.com/jsuedekum/status/1511305870621265921?s=20&t=MjMBaZB9NdD5o01RsTw3aQ
Not far enough imo, but transitioning away from Russian oil will be tricky.

The semiconductors/high tech machinery ban is very good though, especially since Russia has little to no domestic production of such and China is not a reliable replacement partner for that stuff.

to me it sounds like we are a couple weeks/month or so away from cutting either oil or gas.

Fray
Oct 22, 2010

KitConstantine posted:

Hell yeah Czech Republic and Slovakia - I wonder if that air strip on the border is pretty important after all :thunk:
https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1511331834663247873?s=20&t=MjMBaZB9NdD5o01RsTw3aQ
Also saw some photos last night that were purported to be these same vehicles on train cars in Czechia. There was some class of Soviet IFVs loaded as well.

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

Dapper_Swindler posted:

to me it sounds like we are a couple weeks/month or so away from cutting either oil or gas.

they're running out of things to do besides that, but i think ultimately it's going to depend on what is found in the liberated towns. an oil/gas ban will require public outrage in the EU enough to get over the damage it'll do to their economy (I figure their politicians, reasonably, figure that the public needs to be really pissed off to understand why the economy tanked instead of just casually blaming the government)

The Sausages
Sep 30, 2012

What do you want to do? Who do you want to be?

Shibawanko posted:

i'm not sure. people say this sort of thing about hitler and stalin too, that they were products of an entire corporate state that surrounded them and that they were interchangeable. i don't think this is true. putin, like hitler, is a uniquely sociopathic person and if someone were to kill him off they'd have to at least minimally distance themselves from his actions

i don't think there's any chance that this will actually happen though. in the best case scenario, the rumors about his poor health are true and he dies of an illness in the not too distant future, but that's not something anyone should bet on

i also think this relates back to something i posted earlier: it takes time to produce a dictator. fascism works on an escalatory logic that needs time to work, a period in which propaganda that is initially merely cynical or utilitarian starts to be believed, for misdeeds to pile up that then need a rationale ("i bombed grozny, because i am trying to protect the fatherland", "i collectivized agriculture, because in the last analysis, it will be the first step towards utopia"). i think putin started out as a relatively normal person with sociopathic tendencies, but over time he became what he is now by being the head of a certain kind of system. putting it in extremely tedious and annoying academic terms, putin and the russian state co-produced one another and if you take putin out of the equation i think at least some of that spell will be broken, at the very least it would offer an excuse to end the war on negotiations and for the next guy to wash his hands of it and forget about it
Relevant twitter thread:
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1503481887783858180
Take it with a pinch of salt, I like Kamil and his furious writing, but he stretches the truth like it's the goatman's butthole.

MikeC
Jul 19, 2004
BITCH ASS NARC

KitConstantine posted:

Hell yeah Czech Republic and Slovakia - I wonder if that air strip on the border is pretty important after all :thunk:
https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1511331834663247873?s=20&t=MjMBaZB9NdD5o01RsTw3aQ

Also new map from UK Defense Intelligence:
https://twitter.com/ak_mack/status/1511325703526092800?s=20&t=MjMBaZB9NdD5o01RsTw3aQ
The units by Kyiv got mauled while they were there and as they left. No matter what Russia thinks I can't see those troops being combat-effective again any time soon.

They were beginning the pulled out and reorganized their most damaged units atleast a week before abandoning the pocket on Thursday night, hence the drag net picking up only stragglers, so some of those reorganized units should be good to go shortly. The Ukrainians have also reported the movement of the Russian units in Belarus staging opposite Lviv were being loaded on rail cars for a redeployment. There will be fresh units inserted into the Donbas soon.

Still for those going a little postal with the war, taking a week break at this point will probably have you miss little wrt to major moves by either military. The tempo of the war is going to slow down a lot with the most precarious Russian advances having been pulled back.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

MikeC posted:

They were beginning the pulled out and reorganized their most damaged units atleast a week before abandoning the pocket on Thursday night, hence the drag net picking up only stragglers, so some of those reorganized units should be good to go shortly. The Ukrainians have also reported the movement of the Russian units in Belarus staging opposite Lviv were being loaded on rail cars for a redeployment. There will be fresh units inserted into the Donbas soon.

Still for those going a little postal with the war, taking a week break at this point will probably have you miss little wrt to major moves by either military. The tempo of the war is going to slow down a lot with the most precarious Russian advances having been pulled back.

Yeah, no. They are not getting fresh units soon. They don't have any. They have to physically reconstitute the units the have and resupply them. "Soon" is doing a lot of lifting there.

Deltasquid
Apr 10, 2013

awww...
you guys made me ink!


THUNDERDOME

KitConstantine posted:

Trent Terelko of tire/logistics posting fame did a long **extremely optimistic** thread on what a Ukrainian victory in the south could look like that is fairly well reasoned, but definitely take with a grain of salt. Note he has no special sources in Ukraine and openly says this is all a prediction, so while the phrasing is very concrete nothing in the thread itself is

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1511108357712719872?s=20&t=k1xdxp26o6c_5krYDJYZow
Threadreader link for the Twitter-avoiders: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1511108357712719872.html

tl;dr: hit the airbases as much as possible, use drone spotters and long range artillery strikes/local mortars to soften things up, then have light infantry infiltrate and clean up. Note that there's evidence that the Russian secure comms have been compromised in a lot of ways, and this can be used to feed false information in the south as it was used in the north - article: https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htecm/articles/20220328.aspx

Also, thanks, useful read. I hope the optimism is not misplaced

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Dapper_Swindler posted:

to me it sounds like we are a couple weeks/month or so away from cutting either oil or gas.

Oil and gas remain under active discussion, this is just the damage control bag they can throw out immediately.

evilweasel posted:

they're running out of things to do besides that, but i think ultimately it's going to depend on what is found in the liberated towns. an oil/gas ban will require public outrage in the EU enough to get over the damage it'll do to their economy (I figure their politicians, reasonably, figure that the public needs to be really pissed off to understand why the economy tanked instead of just casually blaming the government)

They can wreak plenty more damage in the financial sector alone, also see above - they’re rather explicit that they simply need more time for the big fossils discourse. I’m not especially optimistic, but I don’t have reasons to discard that being a thing to some extent later this month quite yet.

Budzilla
Oct 14, 2007

We can all learn from our past mistakes.

cinci zoo sniper posted:

:nms: ATGM blows up a helicopter

https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1511294675818328065

Why didn't the operator keep his crosshair on the helicopter the whole time?

Kraftwerk
Aug 13, 2011
i do not have 10,000 bircoins, please stop asking

Budzilla posted:

Why didn't the operator keep his crosshair on the helicopter the whole time?

He was leading the target, or alternatively he wanted to fire the missile like a baseball player throws a curve ball so it would hit the helicopter from the sides to minimize detection of the missile.

Risky Bisquick
Jan 18, 2008

PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.



Buglord

Count Roland posted:

I'm going to go on the record and say leaving poison for people is a Bad Idea, not least because your own side also likes food.

I make spirits for a living and methanol poisoning sounds like a pretty laborious way to go. Ethanol displaces methanol in your body, which means you can't just put a few drops of methanol in a vodka bottle. The bottle needs to be methanol at a fairly high percentage. But only small amounts of methanol are produced from fermentation, so you'd need to be distilling an awful lot of spirits to produce much effective poison.

Plus you know it invites retaliation on civilians. And if you argue civilians are already being killed then remember that it can always, always get worse.

They have burned civilians, children too, alive if they found Molotovs in their home. They’ve used an auto cannon to kill a civilian riding a bicycle trying to deliver water. Russians used kalashnikovs on a man in Bucha who was holding a sack of potatoes. They’ve shot the husband and raped the wife for hours in front of their young children.

I don’t see how it gets much worse given they are killing civilians in any area they occupy. Saying it can get worse minimizes the crimes they have done and are continuing to do to the civilian population.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Budzilla posted:

Why didn't the operator keep his crosshair on the helicopter the whole time?

You control the crosshair with a little joystick, which is not as easy as one would think. A hovering helicopter is also not fully stationary, there is always some drift and you have to compensate. But after launch the operator switches to higher magnification which makes it easier to stay on target.



I don't know if Ka-52 has a laser warning system but if it does then it also makes sense not to highlight the target too soon to give it less time to react.

punishedkissinger
Sep 20, 2017

Nenonen posted:

You control the crosshair with a little joystick, which is not as easy as one would think. A hovering helicopter is also not fully stationary, there is always some drift and you have to compensate. But after launch the operator switches to higher magnification which makes it easier to stay on target.



keep aiming and somebody explodes

Coquito Ergo Sum
Feb 9, 2021

Budzilla posted:

Why didn't the operator keep his crosshair on the helicopter the whole time?

I remember noticing the same thing in combat footage years ago, so I asked on a military forum and a guy who claimed to be a TOW operator claimed it's an often learned/sometimes taught habit and has something to do with making missiles easier to track, as the smoke trail and rocket flare can obscure vision on the target. He said there were other reasons and he said the people who trained TOW operators discouraged it, but that was a big one.

Shibawanko
Feb 13, 2013

The Sausages posted:

Relevant twitter thread:
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1503481887783858180
Take it with a pinch of salt, I like Kamil and his furious writing, but he stretches the truth like it's the goatman's butthole.

there's a few structural problems with the russian state that predispose it to authoritarianism. it's huge and centralized on the capital, it has a resource curse, it has a weak/nonexistent tradition of the rule of law and institutions, it's poor and it has a large land border. it will always have these problems and even if navalny somehow becomes president it would still have to beat those odds, but i dunno, putin doesn't seem like a normal person.

in both kotkin's biography of stalin, and in kershaw's biography of hitler they say the same thing: these people are produced by conditions but in the end it's this one specific person that determines how far things go in the end. it took putin to start this war

Budzilla
Oct 14, 2007

We can all learn from our past mistakes.

Kraftwerk posted:

He was leading the target, or alternatively he wanted to fire the missile like a baseball player throws a curve ball so it would hit the helicopter from the sides to minimize detection of the missile.


Nenonen posted:

I don't know if Ka-52 has a laser warning system but if it does then it also makes sense not to highlight the target too soon to give it less time to react.

I was thinking that there would be some detection suite on the helicopter and keeping the crosshair off until the last possible moment to avoid detection. But crazy to launch an AT missile at that distance and hit a stationary helicopter. Or crazy that the helicopter is hovering like that in an active war zone.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
I thought it might be because the chopper might sense the lock if he kept it on target the whole time, giving it a chance to juke and drop flares.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Charlz Guybon posted:

I thought it might be because the chopper might sense the lock if he kept it on target the whole time, giving it a chance to juke and drop flares.

Flares don't help here, it's not an infrared homing missile. The operator guides it to target through that interface. But a few seconds warning gives time to get moving, making tracking much harder.

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Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
I read somewhere, I don't know how true it is, that they do something similar when targeting tanks to get a hit on the upper parts rather than the better protected sides.

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