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https://twitter.com/maria_shagina/status/1512362864836763650 Shipping sanctions turned out the most pointless way, unfortunately. Only strictly Russian-flagged vessels are affected. Some pretty cool language in the announcement too. quote:The agreed export and import bans only account for EUR 10 billion and EUR 5.5 billion respectively.
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Apr 8, 2022 11:05
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Saladman posted:There are a bunch of ways to try and gauge real support, even in dictatorships. The Afghanistan war was popular with like 90%+ of Americans, and even the Iraq war had about 70% popularity at its outset. It seems implausible that there's not a huge majority of Russians in favor of kicking Nazi rear end v2.0 and liberate the thankful subjects. mobby_6kl posted:I talked to some people there, and they didn't really give me a reason to doubt these numbers very much. We've talked about these "deniable" methods before in this thread. They seem pretty robust in so much as they give you mostly accurate numbers for other thorny questions like "have you had an affair" or "do you use illegal drugs". But I don't really have much insight into Russian's states of mind to know whether 53% sounds reasonable or not.
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Apr 8, 2022 11:08
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Even before the war people were imprisoned for likes and reposts on social media, this went 100x after the war started, Levada center or whatever are not independent actors You can probably gather useful information out of it (since the government itself uses it to scan the mood) but with a huge grain of salt. Based on my own zombie family the high support is probably accurate unfortunately Right now though the joke making the rounds is that "the closer the support of a dictator get to 100%, the closer is his end" and hopeful analogies to Ceausescu
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Apr 8, 2022 11:08
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According to some news websites, Slovak S-300 arrived to Ukraine, but so far it is otherwise unconfirmed.
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Apr 8, 2022 11:10
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https://twitter.com/andreisoldatov/status/1512369599089631232 If true, I may have read about something like this in a history book…
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Apr 8, 2022 11:11
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fatherboxx posted:Opposition doesn't have any significant political weight so their opinion is irrelevant. I know they won't have any influence, I just want to know whether they want the sanctions put on them. I'm just looking what the oppositions opinion is in Russia. Do they think the sanctions are moral or not.
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Apr 8, 2022 11:27
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Zelensky is speaking to the parliament of Finland and the websites of the defence ministry and the biggest bank here are down due to a DoS attack. Must be a coincidence.
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Apr 8, 2022 11:28
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uncleTomOfFinland posted:Zelensky is speaking to the parliament of Finland and the websites of the defence ministry and the biggest bank here are down due to a DoS attack. Must be a coincidence. It's Nordea, they're more than capable of falling over by themselves.
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Apr 8, 2022 11:32
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Mikojan posted:I know they won't have any influence, I just want to know whether they want the sanctions put on them. I'm just looking what the oppositions opinion is in Russia. Do they think the sanctions are moral or not. The sanctions were put on people based largely on the lists that the opposition close to Navalny compiled and gave to Americans. This started in 2014 and for this it's largely assumed that Nemtsov was killed and Kara-Murza attempted to be poisoned This repeated with this war starting when the opposition that largely escaped to western countries is working with western politicians and pointing fingers at who to sanction I watch opposition videos nearly daily and they're like "hell yes more sanctions on the corrupt fascists MORE" lol
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Apr 8, 2022 11:35
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Somaen posted:The sanctions were put on people based largely on the lists that the opposition close to Navalny compiled and gave to Americans. This started in 2014 and for this it's largely assumed that Nemtsov was killed and Kara-Murza attempted to be poisoned Alright, good to hear. Would have been soemwhat awkward if the west went full scroched earth on the Russian economy only to antagonize even the people supposedly on our side.
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Apr 8, 2022 11:44
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uncleTomOfFinland posted:Zelensky is speaking to the parliament of Finland and the websites of the defence ministry and the biggest bank here are down due to a DoS attack. Must be a coincidence. And foreign ministry's site. All are back now. There was also a Russian military cargo plane violating the airspace for three minutes.
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Apr 8, 2022 11:46
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Nenonen posted:And foreign ministry's site. All are back now. There was also a Russian military cargo plane violating the airspace for three minutes. A cargo plane is a funny choice for those sorts of antics. Want to bet they literally don't have any combat jets available for it?
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Apr 8, 2022 11:50
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Nenonen posted:And foreign ministry's site. All are back now. There was also a Russian military cargo plane violating the airspace for three minutes. I'd like to understand how the Russians think that this childish harassment and attempts at bullying has any other effect, than make Finns more convinced that we need to go to NATO? Doing these stupid stunts only reassures everyone that the Russian bullying will never otherwise end, and most likely only gets worse if the sanctions start to work efficiently and Putin needs something to redirect attention away from imploding internal economy.
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Apr 8, 2022 11:51
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ShadowHawk posted:https://mobile.twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1511819373530521608 Just to be clear, the linked study makes clear 53% is not the correct number. They use an opt-in sample on Russia's equivalent of MTurk and they do not appear to be weighting to any kind of census target to get a representative sample. They correctly admit in the blog post that because the sample is younger and more urban, it is also likely to be more liberal. And they likely didn't gather enough ancillary data to do some of the smarter things we would do in a commercial poll. But the purpose of the linked study is not to assess Russian support for the war, it's to quantify the extent to which we expect Russian support for the war is being inflated by social desireability bias by conducting a list experiment. List experiments are validated not just for personally thorny questions, but specifically for operating in authoritarian countries and asking about bribery, support for regime, support for violence, etc. The list experiment was, as described in the article, well conducted. One of the biggest worries with list experiments is that the list is too large so people gloss over or ballpark rather than reading the items. Here the list is short. We also worry that the treatment item is buried. If you assume that respondents read the first few items carefully and then gloss over, this is a problem. But the list here is quite short. We also tend to worry about ceiling and floor effects, where the control items are too popular or unpopular -- this is both a mathematical problem and a problem with the honesty-revealing property of the estimator. Basically we worry any time it seems like respondents might be taking a shortcut instead of doing the task asked, or any time the respondent perceives the treatment as a direct question and thus doesn't feel their privacy is preserved. But here all of the design is good and they don't seem like they'd fall prey to these problems. The takeaway from the study should be that there exists some degree of inflation. As I mentioned in my previous post, the most robust look back at list experiments as a design meta-analyzed a mean of +14% support for authoritarian regimes between directly asking and asking via list experiment, which is consistent with this estimate of +15% in this case. The issue is that the underlying problem of capturing a nationally accurate sample for the overall barometer isn't addressed here, so this doesn't give us a figure for national support for the efforts. GEM's invocation of item non-response seems to me to be a non-sequitur in this context. It's true that item non-response is a source of bias, but it's also an easily quantified source of bias (e.g. if 98% of people who take the survey answer the question, your bounds on the effect of item non-response are at most 2%). But beyond bounding, it's a well-understood problem. There's a certain degree of item non-response that is MCAR [missing completely at random] and simply lowers power by reducing the sample size. If your INR rate for every question is low and comparable, this is probably your issue. Moreover, MAR can easily be modeled by just doing a balance table of missingness on relevant confounders -- meaning if the items are missing among a certain sub-group of respondents, you have ways in the model you can compensate for that. The risk from MNAR [missing not at random] missingness is very low in this situation. Even when reading a poll you have no access to, you can simply check topline missingness or reported per-item sample size to assess this risk. Man Plan Canal fucked around with this message at 12:52 on Sep 26, 2022 |
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Apr 8, 2022 12:10
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Der Kyhe posted:I'd like to understand how the Russians think that this childish harassment and attempts at bullying has any other effect, than make Finns more convinced that we need to go to NATO? Doing these stupid stunts only reassures everyone that the Russian bullying will never otherwise end, and most likely only gets worse if the sanctions start to work efficiently and Putin needs something to redirect attention away from imploding internal economy. This whole thing is shaping to be the biggest diplomatic blunder by Russia since the pre-Crimean War downward spiral into isolation when Nicholas I thought of himself to be macho enough to threaten the British quote:"I desire to speak to you as a friend and a gentleman. If England and I arrive at an understanding of this matter, as regards the rest, it matters little to me; it is indifferent to me what others do or think. Frankly, then, I tell you plainly, that if England thinks of establishing herself one of these days at Constantinople, I will not allow it. I do not attribute this intention to you, but it is better on these occasions to speak plainly; for my part, I am equally disposed to take the engagement not to establish myself there, as proprietor that is to say, for as occupier I do not say; it might happen that circumstances, if no previous provision were made, if everything should be left to chance, might place me in the position of occupying Constantinople." Having reliable allies and clear information is for pussies
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Apr 8, 2022 12:13
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Found a few more detailed quotes from the Peskov interview "Peskov was asked to be more precise about what be meant by "rebalancing", in light of Russia's previous warnings about the serious military and political consequences of Finland's and Sweden's possible accession to Nato. "Everything is about mutual deterring and should one side - and we consider Nato to be one side - be more powerful than the other, especially in terms of nuclear arms, then it will be considered a threat for the whole architecture of security and it will take us to take additional measures," he said." https://yle.fi/news/3-12396225 We discussed it a little earlier but, again, this sure sounds like their response to Finland joining is much more likely to be one of adjusting their nuclear forces/readiness level than launching a full-scale invasion.
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Apr 8, 2022 12:19
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It's pretty strange that Russia doesn't understand the EU/US approach of "don't gently caress with us and we won't gently caress with you". If they hadn't assassinated people on our soil, violated our airspace and sea lanes, interfered in our elections and conducted incessant cyber attacks on our infrastructure, we wouldn't have given a poo poo about what they do to their neighbors or their own citizens.
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Apr 8, 2022 12:25
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Mr. Sunshine posted:It's pretty strange that Russia doesn't understand the EU/US approach of "don't gently caress with us and we won't gently caress with you". They don't think the Western approach is 'we won't gently caress with you'. Things we consider normal (complaining about human rights, supporting independent media, calling out obviously unfair elections) are things the Kremlim consideres to be existential threats to its regime. So they think they are already in a contest where the West won't stop trying to destroy (their version of) Russia.
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Apr 8, 2022 12:38
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Dwesa posted:According to some news websites, Slovak S-300 arrived to Ukraine, but so far it is otherwise unconfirmed. https://spectator.sme.sk/c/22881118/slovakia-reportedly-sent-its-s-300-air-defence-system-to-ukraine.html ↓ he's visiting Kyiv with von der Leyen Dwesa fucked around with this message at 12:45 on Apr 8, 2022 |
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Apr 8, 2022 12:42
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https://twitter.com/archer83able/status/1512391998585679876 Do we need another donation thread, for Slovak government’s office rent?
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Apr 8, 2022 12:42
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More pictures and details from Russia's occupation of Chernobyl. https://twitter.com/fpleitgenCNN/status/1512328011915444229
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Apr 8, 2022 12:53
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PerilPastry posted:"Everything is about mutual deterring and should one side - and we consider Nato to be one side - be more powerful than the other, especially in terms of nuclear arms, then it will be considered a threat for the whole architecture of security and it will take us to take additional measures," he said."
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Apr 8, 2022 12:55
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Atreiden posted:More pictures and details from Russia's occupation of Chernobyl. another instance of hostage taking https://twitter.com/fpleitgenCNN/status/1512328035244118019?s=20&t=HSyIppjKem7iyJlGOyDOVw e:this thread is in slow mode too? Rinkles fucked around with this message at 13:02 on Apr 8, 2022 |
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Apr 8, 2022 12:59
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So apparently the missile that hit the train station had for the children spray painted on it…. Dead bodies warning code:Hamelekim fucked around with this message at 13:11 on Apr 8, 2022 |
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Apr 8, 2022 13:00
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Grouchio posted:Wait raising their readiness level again (from level 2 to level 3) - or raising it back to 2 from 1 (post-ukraine) as general sabre rattling? I'm speculating of course but if they're not going to invade I'd expect it to tick up another notch or for them to shift more (strategic) forces westward. It'd be completely redundant, of course, since NATO fully acknowledges and respects their nuclear deterrence in any case but imo we'd certainly see more saber rattling *of some kind*, if only as a face-saving measure.
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Apr 8, 2022 13:03
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Edit this for untagged corpses please.
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Apr 8, 2022 13:08
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Mr. Sunshine posted:It's pretty strange that Russia doesn't understand the EU/US approach of "don't gently caress with us and we won't gently caress with you". Considering several of those neighbors are in the EU and/or NATO. I'm pretty sure we would have give a poo poo. Especially those of us in Europe. Invading Ukraine has been a blow again Pax Europaea. The idea that war on the European continent is anathema is at the heart of post-war European politics. But Kremlin doesn't understand that European nations can be part of NATO and not be US vassals. They don't understand that the EU is more than a trade zone and seem to consider it just another aspect of the Atlantic Pact. It's really hard to have good relations with a neighbor that fundamentally doesn't accept that you have agency and sovereignty. To Kremlin, Germany/France are minor powers that should align with Russia, and everything else is just up for grabs in the competition between the great powers. The absurdity is compounded by Russia being significantly weaker than the Europe it considers a collection of US vassals. Talking sense to a regime which has such an insanely skewed self-perception is impossible and will just make them even more angry. They never shed the Muscovite imperalism. It survived from the Russian Empire into the USSR (despite some communist efforts to the contrary) and even the collapse of the USSR. That's what the US and Europe has failed to understand all these years - Russia doesn't want to be a partner. The quote about 'great powers don't join coalitions, the create them' reveals it all. Kremlin is offended by the thought of there not being hierarchies of power among nations, and with Russia being one of the apex powers. I don't think Kremlin is projecting power simply to gently caress with us. All these things are part of a very deliberate strategy where power is asserted over and over, boundaries pushed to the limit and expansionism pursued to the exclusion of almost everything else. I think what many saw as provocation, bullying and disrespect has been revealed as simply the modus operandi of a regime which is fiercely committed to expansionism and revanchism. This is the opposite of the rest of Europe which after WW2 turned inwards and focused on building internal power (economy, industry, political integration) and establishing external respect (many European nations crave recognition for humanitarian and altruistic efforts). I also think this explains much of why many non-Eastern European nations have been so poor at handling and understanding Russia. The ethos and motivation of Kremlin is so alien to most of Europe that apparently it's easier to just pretend that Moscow is merely ill-mannered and projecting a strongman image. And so we've ended up with a war in Europe. Had Ukraine not turned out to have grown into the rather impressive defensive power it has shown itself, who knows how far Russia would have gotten into Europe before they overplayed their hand? I really don't agree with those who dismiss the risk of a Fait Accompli in 5-10 years if Ukraine had been relatively quickly conquered. While it is obvious the Russian military is poorly led and even worse equipped, I still think a surprise attack against the Baltics and Gotland could have turned very nasty before NATO managed to rally and strike back. Anyway, I digress. My point was merely that even if more well-mannered Russia wouldn't have been allowed to invade neighbors without consequences. Especially not those neighbors who are in the EU or NATO.
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Apr 8, 2022 13:10
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Rinkles posted:another instance of hostage taking https://twitter.com/fpleitgencnn/status/1512328117926440961 I’m glad to see they were able to take their revenge for losing to that tank monument. And yeah, the thread is in slow mode for some reason, and I can’t disable it - meaning this may be some global D&D thing. I’ll reach out to mods.
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Apr 8, 2022 13:17
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Hamelekim posted:So apparently the missile that hit the train station had for the children spray painted on it…. It's hosed up no matter what, but the grammatical meaning of "for the children" is specifically "as payback for what happened to the children" not "this bomb is intended to be delivered to the children". Unlike "for the children" in English, the phrasing is not ambiguous in Russians.
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Apr 8, 2022 13:18
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Yeah, I’d translate it as “in the name of the children”. https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1512401305502953477
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Apr 8, 2022 13:20
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Mr. Sunshine posted:It's pretty strange that Russia doesn't understand the EU/US approach of "don't gently caress with us and we won't gently caress with you". I mean, I don't doubt that Western powers are trying to influence those nations in their favour, but they're not so brutally blunt and overtly menacing about it. Russia is all stick and no carrot, and the stick has rusty nails in it for good measure. Small Strange Bird fucked around with this message at 13:43 on Apr 8, 2022 |
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Apr 8, 2022 13:37
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fatherboxx posted:
My Russian is so-so, but formed like that isn't it more "for killed children of Donbas" and not "to target Ukrainian children". I recall (some number) of killed kids from DPR being one of Russian warcries, probably last one they have left now.
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Apr 8, 2022 13:48
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cinci zoo sniper posted:https://twitter.com/archer83able/status/1512391998585679876 Is that not a train/plane? There's a safety notice in the top right, yeah? Edit: Maybe that is what you meant, but I assumed it was just a situation where he had places to be and did a quick video in transit BougieBitch fucked around with this message at 15:08 on Apr 8, 2022 |
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Apr 8, 2022 13:50
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BougieBitch posted:Is that not a train/plane? There's a safety notice in the top right, yeah? https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1512303926032359428
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Apr 8, 2022 13:53
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I'm kinda concerned that there doesn't seem to be much in regards to self-propelled or even stationary SAM launchers in eastern Europe.
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Apr 8, 2022 13:57
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They are expensive, and don't look that amazing on parades.
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Apr 8, 2022 13:59
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https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1512413792516378624 https://twitter.com/kmartynov/status/1512320051575205888 BougieBitch posted:Is that not a train/plane? There's a safety notice in the top right, yeah? It was an attempt to joke due to that being a hallway of a train, yes.
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Apr 8, 2022 14:03
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Mr. Sunshine posted:It's pretty strange that Russia doesn't understand the EU/US approach of "don't gently caress with us and we won't gently caress with you". A substantial amount of people in the Russian government probably genuinely believe that the revolution of dignity or Belarusian uprising were US/EU coup attempts and that the west is behaving aggressively. Ffs, it's a common believe even here in the west among crackpots.
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Apr 8, 2022 14:05
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GABA ghoul posted:A substantial amount of people in the Russian government probably genuinely believe that the revolution of dignity or Belarusian uprising were US/EU coup attempts and that the west is behaving aggressively. Ffs, it's a common believe even here in the west among crackpots. To be fair, a big chunk of the worlds coup attempts (successful and unsuccessful) in the 20th century were orchestrated by the one of the great powers or other. And the ones that weren't driven directly by a great power, usually the instigators asked the permission of a great power first before committing.
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Apr 8, 2022 14:12
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MassiveSky posted:I'm kinda concerned that there doesn't seem to be much in regards to self-propelled or even stationary SAM launchers in eastern Europe. Well supposedly the NATO approach is more about having non-garbage airforces. But that has some limitations as we can see if you don't want to actually bomb russia for some reason. Also alex314 posted:They are expensive, and don't look that amazing on parades. although I think they do look pretty cool what with the bigass missile tubes and radars
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