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How can I make money off of Russia inevitably not invading Ukraine?
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Feb 12, 2022 21:51
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Red and Black posted:How can I make money off of Russia inevitably not invading Ukraine? IDK. Unlike Biden, they are smart enough to not wade into the shitshow of deciding if a small incursion counts as an invasion.
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Feb 12, 2022 23:54
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Red and Black posted:How can I make money off of Russia inevitably not invading Ukraine? Short the MIC
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Feb 13, 2022 02:50
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Tunicate posted:Short the MIC Nah, they'll make off like bandits whatever happens Zeta Taskforce posted:IDK. Unlike Biden, they are smart enough to not wade into the shitshow of deciding if a small incursion counts as an invasion. By they you mean predictit?
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Feb 13, 2022 16:06
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Red and Black posted:By they you mean predictit? Yes. You should always read the rules in any market you invest in. They try to always have clear deadlines and clear things that need to happen in that time frame. Decisions have to be final, they can't undo a botched market, but they still want to avoid screwing things up.
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Feb 13, 2022 16:57
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Why can't they just say an incursion of a battalion of troops or more before the end of March equals an invasion? I would bet on that. What's the point of an all out media offensive to convince us a war is happening if I can't make a quick buck off of it?
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Feb 13, 2022 17:50
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they tend to avoid markets that directly involve death
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Feb 13, 2022 18:42
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i say swears online posted:they tend to avoid markets that directly involve death Yeah, thats fair
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Feb 13, 2022 19:08
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i say swears online posted:they tend to avoid markets that directly involve death given what i've seen some commenters do in order to try to scoop info or alter the market, this is a good policy decision, otherwise some random PI user would spark a war so he wins $3000
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Feb 13, 2022 19:18
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my trunk full of rope and duct tape says that filibuster ends today
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Feb 13, 2022 19:20
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i say swears online posted:they tend to avoid markets that directly involve death Ever since a crazy guy threatened to kill Andrew Yang over the tweet markets they've been pretty gun-shy.
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Feb 13, 2022 20:54
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heh
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Feb 13, 2022 22:05
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Michelle Childs is currently trading in the low 20s to be Biden's pick for the Supreme Court, and she is realistically worth about 3c. Easy, easy NO that is (almost) free money.
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Feb 18, 2022 06:49
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Private Witt posted:Michelle Childs is currently trading in the low 20s to be Biden's pick for the Supreme Court, and she is realistically worth about 3c. Yeah, I was amazed when that was up at 30c earlier this month; I already put as much as I'm willing to on No when she first jumped up to the 20s on the basis of "Clyburn and Graham like her". As silly as the "How many times will the president say [words] in [speech]?" markets are, for a quick payout I also really like 3 or fewer No in the "How many times will Biden say "Russia" or "Putin" in the State of the Union?" market. (For comparison, he said "Russia" three times and "Putin" once in his first joint address to Congress at the end of April last year.)
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Feb 19, 2022 17:24
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I have a double max on KBJ yes and childs no, feeling safe with it I always get hosed in mention markets but this is the first one in forever so I slipped a few buys in on rando brackets at .04. I let the bids run for 24 hours and cancelled the ones that didn't fill, so I only have like $30 in the market but it seems like a good play
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Feb 19, 2022 22:18
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Atahualpa posted:As silly as the "How many times will the president say [words] in [speech]?" markets are, for a quick payout I also really like 3 or fewer No in the "How many times will Biden say "Russia" or "Putin" in the State of the Union?" market. (For comparison, he said "Russia" three times and "Putin" once in his first joint address to Congress at the end of April last year.) I'm liking "No" on 11+ mentions. e: Nevermind. Merlot Brougham has issued a correction as of 05:14 on Feb 24, 2022 |
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Feb 22, 2022 19:14
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Holy poo poo, the Josh Hawley market finally closed.
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Mar 15, 2022 23:22
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anyone in on TX28
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Mar 15, 2022 23:42
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betting cuellar, the man whose offices were raided by the fbi, purely on the basis that elections like these have tended to go poorly for bernie wing candidates
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Mar 16, 2022 00:46
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also have money on the criminal
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Mar 16, 2022 01:12
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when is the primary in texass?
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Mar 17, 2022 22:02
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early may but don't know the date offhand
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Mar 18, 2022 02:41
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French election Round 1 is days away and the markets are starting to pick up some action again. Anyone been dabbling in this one since my last post? I've done okay so far with the strategy I outlined. Bought against the field mostly and have Le Pen finishing 2nd in round 1, etc. Should be some money for the taking if it's going to be anything like the last French election. if you get in on election night round 1 this Sunday, just remember - the day-of French exit polls/projections are extremely accurate.
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Apr 4, 2022 18:07
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WHEW i'm so glad this isn't a nailbiter, i had too much into macron 2nd no
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Apr 10, 2022 19:53
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 gaze in wonder in the worst bet i've made in months. white-knuckling it a few hours ago from a bet made last month
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Apr 10, 2022 22:30
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i say swears online posted:
97c!?
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Apr 11, 2022 23:33
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i say swears online posted:
so much risked, for so little reward
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Apr 11, 2022 23:39
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All water under the bridge. On to Round 2. Easy money.
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Apr 11, 2022 23:50
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i say swears online posted:
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Apr 12, 2022 00:50
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lmfaooo someone beat me
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Apr 12, 2022 00:58
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WampaLord posted:so much risked, for so little reward My predictit strategy so far has been to buy 1) Foregone conclusions, especially things that have already happened 2) Positions opposite to people who are clearly not betting rationally, such as all the MAGA money Sometimes these overlap, such as betting Trump would not win California. At the time I bought in, Le Pen was way behind in the polls and looked like she had some MAGA-money enthusiasm. But I clearly misjudged; I think delusional cheerleaders don't make sophisticated bets like second place or margin of victory, they just buy "my guy will win". Witness, for instance, how you can almost always buy "democrat no" for cheaper than "republican yes" in places where those are the only two options.
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Apr 12, 2022 03:17
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yeah probably 80% of my bets are NO whatever
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Apr 12, 2022 03:30
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It helps that in most elections democrats are known losers.
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Apr 12, 2022 13:12
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Red and Black posted:How can I make money off of Russia inevitably not invading Ukraine? Good job they didn't offer this market!
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Apr 12, 2022 16:25
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i would have lost so much loving money the logic was that they didn't have nearly enough troops for a proper invasion and things would get bogged down quickly with heavy losses on both sides, so lol
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Apr 12, 2022 23:02
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i say swears online posted:i would have lost so much loving money Never bet on logically arrived conclusions my friend, for you will resent it's absence in the results.
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Apr 12, 2022 23:17
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Will Sweden or Finland take formal steps to join NATO in 2022? seems way underpriced right now (at 89%).
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Apr 20, 2022 14:06
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yeah that's almost a bond. I haven't bought it but wouldn't blame someone who does
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Apr 20, 2022 16:10
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ShadowHawk posted:Will Sweden or Finland take formal steps to join NATO in 2022? seems way underpriced right now (at 89%). Hmm, just either has to be offered an "Intensified Dialogue" or an "Action Plan" (jesus, sounds like an HR intervention) to resolve to yes. Even Ukraine has an "intensified dialogue" right now. This does sound like pretty easy money.
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Apr 20, 2022 18:05
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i say swears online posted:yeah that's almost a bond. I haven't bought it but wouldn't blame someone who does France paying bonds for the same price but it pays in a few days. We're all double maxed for Sunday in France right?
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Apr 20, 2022 21:53
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