Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Post
  • Reply
Woodchip
Mar 28, 2010

Arrath posted:

It's a no brainer that the ship could carry nukes. Sunshine tipped missiles are all the more capable at smashing carrier groups, which I believe was the primary purpose of the Soviet surface fleet.

Was it at this time? poo poo, probably anyone's guess and we'll never really know unless James Cameron takes a submersible with a Geiger counter down there, or there's another "opening of the archives" in 20 years ala the stuff that got unearthed after the fall of the SU. It seems like it would be awfully dumb for it to have been carrying nukes, but, you know, *gestures vaguely at this whole mess*

E: also that VVV although "some evil rear end in a top hat retrieving the nukes the Russians lost in the dumbest possible manner" would make a good plot for a modern Thunderball

Elon’s Boring Company just had friends with sunglasses and large sacks of money arrive.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Deteriorata posted:

I can't think of any. If they found them they couldn't use them. Russia still has the codes for arming them. If they figured that out, they wouldn't have any way to deliver them. If they could deliver them, they still couldn't use them because they would in turn be annihilated by Russia's response.

Trade them to the CIA for $TEXAS

Comrade Blyatlov
Aug 4, 2007


should have picked four fingers





Woodchip posted:

Elon’s Boring Company just had friends with sunglasses and large sacks of money arrive.

Elon finally getting to use his Submarine lmao

Handsome Ralph
Sep 3, 2004

Oh boy, posting!
That's where I'm a Viking!


https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1515084310570840075?s=21&t=tI8tTjGmWBB59hIv2CtJkg

Not surprised but also, lol.

Humbug Scoolbus
Apr 25, 2008

The scarlet letter was her passport into regions where other women dared not tread. Shame, Despair, Solitude! These had been her teachers, stern and wild ones, and they had made her strong, but taught her much amiss.
Clapping Larry
No wonder the UA is so good at nicking tanks. They have professional instruction.

Taerkar
Dec 7, 2002

kind of into it, really

Deteriorata posted:

I can't think of any. If they found them they couldn't use them. Russia still has the codes for arming them. If they figured that out, they wouldn't have any way to deliver them. If they could deliver them, they still couldn't use them because they would in turn be annihilated by Russia's response.

The codes are very top secret: 12345

Murgos
Oct 21, 2010

Deteriorata posted:

I can't think of any. If they found them they couldn't use them. Russia still has the codes for arming them. If they figured that out, they wouldn't have any way to deliver them. If they could deliver them, they still couldn't use them because they would in turn be annihilated by Russia's response.

Ukraine is a technologically capable nation that I expect could execute a credible nuclear program given a bit of breathing room.

Recovering nukes from Moskva is an option but not the only one if rearming is something they want to do.

Wickerman
Feb 26, 2007

Boom, mothafucka!

Uncle Enzo posted:

?? Other than the flagship they sank.

Allow me to revise.

The Neptune is a land-based anti ship missile with an approximate range of 170 miles, per CNN. The most direct sea route from Odessa to Sevastopol is 206 nautical miles, which is ~226 miles. ISW and NPR state that the Moskva was roughly 60 miles due south of Odessa and likely struck on the 13th. There is some open source satellite imagery posted by NavalNews today suggesting that the ship sunk somewhere around 60km NW of Sevastopol. Obviously there's no good way to confirm that, but it appears that a handful of Russian ships departed Sevastopol and converged at that location. That site would be roughly near max range of any Neptune missiles stationed near Odessa.

The Russian Black Sea fleet has two Amur class repair ships with max speeds of 14 knots. I can't find evidence that they are capable of towing, but their diesel engines have enough hp to be capable. Regardless, based off technical specs, open source satellite images, and estimated time elapsed between being struck and sinking (allegedly), it seems likely that the Mosvka was not towed out of Neptune range before it sank.

That said, Ukraine has not been able to contest the Russian Navy with naval vessels on the Black Sea so far during this conflict. While the sunken vessel is likely within range of the Ukrainian Neptune missiles, the Russian Navy has at least four KILO class submarines in the Black Sea (potentially six) as well as Bastion P launchers in Sevastopol (modified S300s for anti-ship capabilities) with slightly greater range than the Neptune (~215mi/350km) that should be able to provide sufficient air and sea coverage to protect the wreckage. There are also a handful of Russian warplanes in Sevastopol capable of striking ships. In summary, this means a Ukrainian attempt to recover any hypothetical nuclear missiles from the wreckage is highly improbable.

FrozenVent
May 1, 2009

The Boeing 737-200QC is the undisputed workhorse of the skies.
Nobody is seriously saying Ukraine is going to be doing salvage work on the Moskva while the conflict is active.

GD_American
Jul 21, 2004

LISTEN TO WHAT I HAVE TO SAY AS IT'S INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT!

Murgos posted:

Ukraine is a technologically capable nation that I expect could execute a credible nuclear program given a bit of breathing room.

Within the lifetime of many posters in this thread, Ukraine had the 3rd largest nuclear arsenal in the world.

Wickerman
Feb 26, 2007

Boom, mothafucka!

FrozenVent posted:

Nobody is seriously saying Ukraine is going to be doing salvage work on the Moskva while the conflict is active.

In my defense, im retarded so

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Joke Miriam
Nov 17, 2019



Are there actually nukes in the Moskva? When I google it, I only get results from various British tabloids and it seems like they just meant it hard missiles that COULD carry a nuclear warhead, but likely wouldn't.

Bored As Fuck
Jan 1, 2006
Fun Shoe

If they're there, we might be too. Though maybe Biden might be a bit hesitant to do that. If we are there, we'll either find out via a leak, or in 15-20 years after a CIA dude's book comes out.

Nick Soapdish
Apr 27, 2008


Taerkar posted:

The codes are very top secret: 12345

"That's the stupidest combination I've heard in my life"

Comrade Blyatlov
Aug 4, 2007


should have picked four fingers





Taerkar posted:

The codes are very top secret: 12345

Slightly better than 0000

Naked Bear
Apr 15, 2007

Boners was recorded before a studio audience that was alive!

Joke Miriam posted:

Are there actually nukes in the Moskva? When I google it, I only get results from various British tabloids and it seems like they just meant it hard missiles that COULD carry a nuclear warhead, but likely wouldn't.
We don't know. The relatively few people who do know are either likely deceased or behind the iron curtain.

FrozenVent
May 1, 2009

The Boeing 737-200QC is the undisputed workhorse of the skies.

Bored As gently caress posted:

If they're there, we might be too. Though maybe Biden might be a bit hesitant to do that. If we are there, we'll either find out via a leak, or in 15-20 years after a CIA dude's book comes out.

Unless they sent in the SEALs, in which case the book is already being written and optioned for a movie.

Sentinel
Jan 1, 2009

High Tech
Low Life


Nick Soapdish posted:

"That's the stupidest combination I've heard in my life"

"Thats the same combination i use on my luggage"

FrozenVent
May 1, 2009

The Boeing 737-200QC is the undisputed workhorse of the skies.
SPACEBALLS!

GET IT GUYS IT WAS A MOVIE!

I SAW IT TOO!

Comrade Blyatlov
Aug 4, 2007


should have picked four fingers





:shrug: 0000 has historical precedent

Nick Soapdish
Apr 27, 2008


FrozenVent posted:

SPACEBALLS!

GET IT GUYS IT WAS A MOVIE!

I SAW IT TOO!

Sorry for trying to bring some levity from my favorite childhood movie to a lovely situation

Edit: Actually, Spaceball was my older brothers favorite movie; my favorite movie was Short Circuit

Nick Soapdish fucked around with this message at 05:08 on Apr 16, 2022

Wickerman
Feb 26, 2007

Boom, mothafucka!
At least you didn't spend an hour looking up obscure Russian ship specs to make an effort post essay just before a spaceballs joke

LtCol J. Krusinski
May 7, 2013

by Fluffdaddy

psydude posted:

I can understand criticism levelled at the Libya intervention (which was, interestingly, pushed for by the British, French, and Italians instead of the Americans), but I genuinely don't understand the widespread opposition to the intervention in Yugoslavia, for reasons that have already been pointed out.

My eyes almost roll out of my head every time I read another "just give peace a chance!" opinion. I consider myself a pretty firm pacifist at this point, but if someone's invading your country unprovoked, you loving kill their asses. Plus, you know, the fact that basically every country in Europe tried diplomatic solutions to dissuade Russia, and they still invaded anyway.

If so? It might be time to leave the army old friend.. Maybe instead of pacifism you are more on the side of peace and not war? Then again, you’ve never said anything here that leads me to believe your not a pacifist, so I’m sorry if it sounds like I’m being a dick. I just think maybe the army isn’t the right job for you if you are a pacifist? Whatever, ignore me. I’m drunk on a Friday- I’d just hate to see what happens when an earnest pacifist is made to go to war in a volunteer army. As in I’d hate that situation for you, not that I’m making GBS threads on your beliefs.

The DoD is absolutely the opposite of pacifism. Full stop, it’s the largest most powerful war making apparatus in the world. I’d think happiness for a pacifist would be leaving the Army.

Anyway, again, feel free to ignore me especially if this doesn’t make sense. Hope all is well for you psydude.

GD_American
Jul 21, 2004

LISTEN TO WHAT I HAVE TO SAY AS IT'S INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT!

FrozenVent posted:

Unless they sent in the SEALs, in which case the book is already being written and optioned for a movie.

In the spring of 2022,


an elite force of the U.S. Navy

was sent on a top-secret assignment
in the Black Sea.


The objective,
recover potential nuclear weapons

from a heavily guarded
sunken Russian cruiser


The mission was considered
to be near suicide.


Of the 10 men sent, four returned.


Of those four, three wrote books
about what happened.


Of those three, two were published.


Of those two, just one got a movie deal.


This is the story of the men
who attempted to make that movie.

Arrath
Apr 14, 2011


:golfclap:

For some reason my mind inserted the Law and Order DUN DUN after i read that.

IPCRESS
May 27, 2012
Really? I thought Springtime for NLAW.

Uncle Enzo
Apr 28, 2008

I always wanted to be a Wizard

Wickerman posted:

Allow me to revise.

The Neptune is a land-based anti ship missile with an approximate range of 170 miles, per CNN. The most direct sea route from Odessa to Sevastopol is 206 nautical miles, which is ~226 miles. ISW and NPR state that the Moskva was roughly 60 miles due south of Odessa and likely struck on the 13th.

Regardless, based off technical specs, open source satellite images, and estimated time elapsed between being struck and sinking (allegedly), it seems likely that the Mosvka was not towed out of Neptune range before it sank.

In summary, this means a Ukrainian attempt to recover any hypothetical nuclear missiles from the wreckage is highly improbable.


In turn, I was overly flippant. Ukraine cannot meaningfully assert seaborne control of the Black Sea against the Russian Navy. But then, it couldn't ever do that anyways. In fact it couldn't control the Black Sea even if the Russian fleet magically disappeared. What they did (can do?) is more like area denial.

Which for their strategic situation is plenty- all their merchant shipping is cut off, but given their location and even a token Russian Navy that shipping won't be back till after the war is totally over anyways. So the Ukrainians naval goals are probably something like

-Deny amphibious landings, especially near Odessa
-Deny Russian resupply via sea
-Remove threat of shipborne AA missiles to air operations in southern Ukraine

The first one I would argue is a done deal- with Odessa having been supplied since the war began I don't see any non-suicidal landings there. If the USMC wanted to invade Odessa there would need to be an absolutely massive amount of defense reduction first. Which we've seen the Russians simply can't do even for a land assault, much less an amphibious one where they have zero experience.

The Russians were going to use Berdyansk to resupply, but that idea got Tochka'd.

And the third goal is more or less done- any Russian ships that want to threaten planes over Ukraine would have to get real close. Clearly very risky at this point lol.

As for recovering hypothetical nukes, that idea seems very silly. Additionally, the Ukrainians held a referendum and decided to be non nuclear.


So I'd say call the terminology whatever we want, I think Ukraine is doing really well on the Black Sea front. Which I think we agree on at this point.

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

Comrade Blyatlov posted:

:shrug: 0000 has historical precedent

:goonsay:

It was actually "00000000." :colbert:

At least the USAF had eight digits. The Brits' ideas of PALs were "gee, Percy, I hope no blighter ever realizes we arm our eggs with bicycle lock keys."

Mustang
Jun 18, 2006

“We don’t really know where this goes — and I’m not sure we really care.”

LtCol J. Krusinski posted:

If so? It might be time to leave the army old friend.. Maybe instead of pacifism you are more on the side of peace and not war? Then again, you’ve never said anything here that leads me to believe your not a pacifist, so I’m sorry if it sounds like I’m being a dick. I just think maybe the army isn’t the right job for you if you are a pacifist? Whatever, ignore me. I’m drunk on a Friday- I’d just hate to see what happens when an earnest pacifist is made to go to war in a volunteer army. As in I’d hate that situation for you, not that I’m making GBS threads on your beliefs.

The DoD is absolutely the opposite of pacifism. Full stop, it’s the largest most powerful war making apparatus in the world. I’d think happiness for a pacifist would be leaving the Army.

Anyway, again, feel free to ignore me especially if this doesn’t make sense. Hope all is well for you psydude.

I'm pretty sure he's long since been out, I feel like I'm one of the more recent cohorts of GIP goons to make their way through the military and even I'm 2+ years post Army now.

GD_American
Jul 21, 2004

LISTEN TO WHAT I HAVE TO SAY AS IT'S INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT!
So, Ukraine's not gonna use the antiship version of that ol' terrorist tactic of packing a second bomb in an ambulance and parking it in the responders to the first bomb, huh?

Shame.

Kazinsal
Dec 13, 2011

Joke Miriam posted:

Are there actually nukes in the Moskva? When I google it, I only get results from various British tabloids and it seems like they just meant it hard missiles that COULD carry a nuclear warhead, but likely wouldn't.

Knowing the embezzlement and corruption elsewhere in the Russian military, I imagine that the physics packages for most of Russia's nukes were stolen and sold off for megayacht fuel years ago.

LtCol J. Krusinski
May 7, 2013

by Fluffdaddy

Mustang posted:

I'm pretty sure he's long since been out, I feel like I'm one of the more recent cohorts of GIP goons to make their way through the military and even I'm 2+ years post Army now.

Oh, right. gently caress me. I thought Psy had made O-4 and was still in but you might be right. I know he was a really good comms officer, slipped my mind that he was a civilian now.

Even more reason to ignore my dumb rear end, Paydude.

Carth Dookie
Jan 28, 2013

Kazinsal posted:

Knowing the embezzlement and corruption elsewhere in the Russian military, I imagine that the physics packages for most of Russia's nukes were stolen and sold off for megayacht fuel years ago.

The Pakistan nuclear arsenal is actually just a bunch of grifted Russian nukes.

lovely James Bond plot or real life? Harder question to answer than you would think.

GD_American
Jul 21, 2004

LISTEN TO WHAT I HAVE TO SAY AS IT'S INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT!
I do not care how dead horse these jokes have gotten, I was clicking links on the Ate My Balls webring and laughing well into in this millenium right here


https://twitter.com/MajDanNovember/status/1514998458377195521

Comrade Blyatlov
Aug 4, 2007


should have picked four fingers





GD_American posted:

I do not care how dead horse these jokes have gotten, I was clicking links on the Ate My Balls webring and laughing well into in this millenium right here


https://twitter.com/MajDanNovember/status/1514998458377195521

You go right on posting these.

FrozenVent
May 1, 2009

The Boeing 737-200QC is the undisputed workhorse of the skies.
That Lego set is fire, and probably more in line with my budget than that loving Titanic.

Blind Rasputin
Nov 25, 2002

Farewell, good Hunter. May you find your worth in the waking world.

I stumbled upon this episode of what must have been a Russian State tv episode where a news anchor tours Russia’s pacific fleet submarine base, and tours a few subs and even goes on a ride on what they say is one of their most modern subs. I looked up this sub they take a ride on and its keel was laid in the early 2000s. It was one heck of a thing to see TV like this coming out of Russia, of course it’s laden with propaganda. Just laid on so thick in places it’s honestly hilarious (not that our military tv videos don’t do similar things though).

Now, I haven’t been in the military myself (MD-goon here) but I’ve watched enough YouTube and the very excellent SmarterEveryDay series where Dustin spends a week on board a US submarine, and holy poo poo was it obvious that Russia’s submarines are a mess. They looked completely rusted out below the waterline. Their internals look to still be from the 80s. At one point there’s a few laptops from the early 2000s around their bridge running stuff while the rest is the most antiquated looking stuff I’ve ever seen. I imagine that stuff “just works,” and hell maybe they have really great and modern sonar and other internals that all these ancient control panels are connected to… But I imagine the rust doesn’t help them stay quiet, and I cannot imagine for one second they have the level of system integration or fleet/multidisciplinary battlefield integration our fleets have with all this old tech. Then there’s the new recruit sailers, I think that’s what they are, in the blue outfits (and hilarious rubber boots good god). They all look terrified and clueless. Like, I almost felt that a couple of them had been just pulled off the street.

What’s more, a YouTube search got me to a channel called Sub Pen, he had a video detailing the exact submarine family that was in this documentary with pics of the inside that corroborate it all. It sounds like they never could really get their newer ICBM to work right, either. The thing kept exploding mid flight.

https://youtu.be/o_j783A8XUc

https://youtu.be/9b0wZARE9B8

Obviously the problems with the health of Russia’s military doesn’t stop at the shore if the sinking of the Moskva has anything to say about it. And maybe I’m totally reading this Russian video wrong but… I always thought Russia’s sub fleet was as formidable as ours? If this video is right.. loving no way, it’s a total joke lol.

Blind Rasputin fucked around with this message at 07:15 on Apr 16, 2022

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

GD_American posted:

I do not care how dead horse these jokes have gotten, I was clicking links on the Ate My Balls webring and laughing well into in this millenium right here


https://twitter.com/MajDanNovember/status/1514998458377195521

I love how just offensively stupid it is, like 'we blew up and sunk your loving flagship and now we're making idiot sea tractor memes about it'

IMO the tractor stuff has been such a quintessentially perfect piece of war time propaganda and the fact it's significantly grounded in reality just makes it all the better. Like it sells the idea that anyone can help, that even Serhei the farmer is mightier than a tank, that the enemy are bumbling idiots who can't even keep track of their tanks and on and on. Then on top of that it's the exact perfect thing to go viral without even needing any social media manipulation or bot promotion, either.

On a related note, it's a pretty incredible that they hit Moskva with missiles like 10 miles from Snake Island, the origin of 'russian warship, go gently caress yourself.'

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

LtCol J. Krusinski posted:

If so? It might be time to leave the army old friend.. Maybe instead of pacifism you are more on the side of peace and not war? Then again, you’ve never said anything here that leads me to believe your not a pacifist, so I’m sorry if it sounds like I’m being a dick. I just think maybe the army isn’t the right job for you if you are a pacifist? Whatever, ignore me. I’m drunk on a Friday- I’d just hate to see what happens when an earnest pacifist is made to go to war in a volunteer army. As in I’d hate that situation for you, not that I’m making GBS threads on your beliefs.

The DoD is absolutely the opposite of pacifism. Full stop, it’s the largest most powerful war making apparatus in the world. I’d think happiness for a pacifist would be leaving the Army.

Anyway, again, feel free to ignore me especially if this doesn’t make sense. Hope all is well for you psydude.

I left the army in 2016 and my IRR time ran out in 2018. Otherwise your post is technically correct.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Baconroll
Feb 6, 2009

Bored As gently caress posted:

If they're there, we might be too. Though maybe Biden might be a bit hesitant to do that. If we are there, we'll either find out via a leak, or in 15-20 years after a CIA dude's book comes out.

If American special forces are there doing training then its pretty clear its not the Seals - as the book would already be out.

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply