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Who will win the federal Election This poll is closed. |
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| Labor Majority |
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48 | 42.48% |
| Labor Minority |
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29 | 25.66% |
| Liberal Majority |
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3 | 2.65% |
| Liberal Minority |
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12 | 10.62% |
| UAP Majoirty |
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21 | 18.58% |
| Total: | 113 votes | ||
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JBP posted:Albanese is a weak candidate and he will demonstrate weakness again before this week is done. This. Albanese has been a poo poo opposition leader who has never been able to truly captalise on the Govt's fuckups or come up with compelling vision. However the fact still is its the govt that loses elections and I dont think enough people really want the LNP out. Sure some places hate them but there just not enough of that going around and there hasnt been well before this election was called. The electorate just does not care about how goddamn incompetent this govt has been because they just dont have any real reason to care. It'll probably be a minority govt but I cant really see the LNP losing.
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Apr 18, 2022 12:21
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I was at my parents house for dinner so I had the joy of hearing the LNP attack slogan "it won't be easy under albanese"
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Apr 18, 2022 12:23
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Bargearse posted:In a fucken landslide because we live in the timeline where the stupidest thing possible happens every time. hey this is my schtick
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Apr 18, 2022 12:31
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Absolutely pathetic nonentities for Labor leaders has been the norm in my lifetime.
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Apr 18, 2022 12:31
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GoldStandardConure posted:hey this is my schtick Ok fine I’ll get my own schtick
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Apr 18, 2022 12:34
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Ghost Leviathan posted:Absolutely pathetic nonentities for Labor leaders has been the norm in my lifetime. remember simon crean? I just did reading this post
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Apr 18, 2022 12:38
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https://twitter.com/GhostWhoVotes/status/1516018207240298503 CALM DOWN LOSERS
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Apr 18, 2022 12:40
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At this point before the last election Newspoll was 48:52, and two months before the election it was 46:54. It's gonna be a close one.
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Apr 18, 2022 12:45
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https://twitter.com/AmyRemeikis/status/1515858317893005312 https://twitter.com/MSMWatchdog2013/status/1515915322666405889 https://twitter.com/mrseankelly/status/1515801938201559045 I would blow Dane Cook fucked around with this message at 12:51 on Apr 18, 2022 |
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Apr 18, 2022 12:45
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Tell it to Bill.
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Apr 18, 2022 12:46
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no
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Apr 18, 2022 12:54
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this ones the funniest imo. passive voice peter principle
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Apr 18, 2022 13:11
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Ghost Leviathan posted:Absolutely pathetic nonentities for Labor leaders has been the norm in my lifetime. I miss Kim Beazely, I know he lost and lost and lost. But he was personable? He had a presence. Much like Rudd. Latham also had presence, but it was the sort that made you intensely uncomfortable and convinced you to switch to the next train carriage. Apparently Labor is going for the throat this week and is actually going to mention how dogshit the government has been. Might be interesting. I actually saw a Labor sign today after a week of nothing but UAP and One Nation signs all over the place.
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Apr 18, 2022 13:12
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https://twitter.com/GhostWhoVotes/status/1516018996532768770?t=2tvMMkk_1lLooD0X3naIIQ&s=19 Wasn't part of the reason for the 2019 poll fail related to a bunch of ridiculous assumptions around PUP preferences flowing to Labor when they were never going to do so? Cause while this is still within the margin of error, it's more encouraging than the (probably irrelevant) PPM and approval polls.
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Apr 18, 2022 13:18
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Beazely was easily as much of a oval office as Latham was during their tenure, it's just Latham went full right wing fuckhead immediately after getting turfed so we look back on him less fondly
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Apr 18, 2022 13:50
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Jezza of OZPOS posted:remember simon crean? I just did reading this post he really creaned himself in 2013
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Apr 18, 2022 14:00
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Don Dongington posted:https://twitter.com/GhostWhoVotes/status/1516018996532768770?t=2tvMMkk_1lLooD0X3naIIQ&s=19 I think it was more to do with Herding - Labor was actually doing terribly, but everyone 'thought' they were ahead and when they got poll results that started suggesting otherwise, they tried to fix what they thought was bad data rather than saying 'hmm maybe the LNP is winning?'. IIRC internal Labor polling was dire.
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Apr 18, 2022 14:04
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No way greens get 12 seats. Surely that polling has little accuracy in regards to how seats actually turn out, would like to know their methodology but 0 time to read it. Labor is really going to flub another election lmao. They'd want to have some great dirt to release next month and a media that is forced to run with it if they want to win! I am prepared to accept defeat, is there betting for what time Antony will call the election and for who?
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Apr 18, 2022 15:19
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Janitor Ludwich IV posted:No way greens get 12 seats. Surely that polling has little accuracy in regards to how seats actually turn out, would like to know their methodology but 0 time to read it. Each point doesn't represent a seat, its a percentage of first party preference.
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Apr 18, 2022 15:23
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the bandtslide is real!!! swing to greens after that first week is pretty good news & no change in TPP is even better. albanese being a gently caress up + bandt being great + the government still being unpopular makes me hope we might actually get a few more greens seats after all worth noting albanese's satisfaction rating did drop significantly which isn't unsurprising, so if the rest of the campaign goes as badly for him as the first week it'll surely translate into more TPP movement instead of just labor-to-greens movement it's clear we are not yet having the same polling issues as last time though - last time the issue with the polls was that they were all so heavily herded that there wasn't anything outside of 51-52 labor tpp for the entire election campaign - it seems very likely labor were never ahead during the campaign (& had been behind since some unclear earlier point). this time there is more movement in the polls and each of the pollsters are clearly doing their own things. doesn't mean they can't gently caress up in some other way but it's much less likely. lih fucked around with this message at 22:26 on Apr 18, 2022 |
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Apr 18, 2022 21:53
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Phew. I was worried we would see polling like in 2019.
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Apr 18, 2022 23:07
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2019 is intellectually lazy as a comparison. The margin of error on Newspoll for South and Western Australian state elections was less than 1%
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Apr 18, 2022 23:43
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Comparing it to the most recent federal election is lazy? Yes you’re right, I should use 1980 as a comparison.
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Apr 19, 2022 00:04
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lih posted:
I heard something about how the polling companies have updated and published their methodology now as well.
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Apr 19, 2022 00:06
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Kevin Bonham seems confident that Newspoll has adjusted around their mistakes in 2019, that's good enough for me.
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Apr 19, 2022 00:10
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I would simply accept death and allow chaos to reign regardless of what the outcome is
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Apr 19, 2022 00:38
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yeah they've completely overhauled their methodology from 2019 and have had a decent track record at recent state elections, so there's no reason to expect the same problem. still unproven at a federal election though so there still could be some problems, just not likely to be the same herding problem as last time. if we do start seeing herding with any of the pollsters i'm sure all the poll analyst nerds like bonham will start yelling about it - they were suspicious last time but not to the point of expecting the polls were total garbage.
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Apr 19, 2022 00:51
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I just registered as an Overseas voter, and the website says that they will send me my ballots sometime in the next 3 weeks. Also the embassy says that I can either post them back to the AEC, or if I post them to the Embassy in Tokyo, that would also count. The last times I have been overseas for an Election I either got fined for non voting, or I managed to weasel out of it by claiming an excuse, (i.e. I live and work in bumfuck South Korea, it was too hard for me to make it to the embassy to vote.) This will be my first time doing it this way. Hooray for international democracy!
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Apr 19, 2022 02:23
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BrigadierSensible posted:I just registered as an Overseas voter, and the website says that they will send me my ballots sometime in the next 3 weeks. probably a bit too long for the democracy snag to still be safe to eat when you get it.
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Apr 19, 2022 02:53
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looking forward to hearin some more aobut numbers this week
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Apr 19, 2022 03:39
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Laserface posted:probably a bit too long for the democracy snag to still be safe to eat when you get it. The rot in your long overdue democracy snag will be a perfect analogy to the rot consuming the federal government.
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Apr 19, 2022 03:48
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What does the onion represent in this analogy?
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Apr 19, 2022 04:00
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Labah waste, Mr Speaker
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Apr 19, 2022 04:07
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Bargearse posted:What does the onion represent in this analogy? The greens
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Apr 19, 2022 04:12
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Whats the name of the liberal candidate in Warringah?
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Apr 19, 2022 05:05
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Bargearse posted:What does the onion represent in this analogy? The furious arguments on whether the onion goes above or below the sausage represent the popular embracing of a two party system where small issues are quibbled over instead of major change.
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Apr 19, 2022 05:12
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angus taylors telling porkies again lolI would blow Dane Cook posted:Whats the name of the liberal candidate in Warringah? deves
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Apr 19, 2022 05:33
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SMILLENNIALSMILLEN posted:
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Apr 19, 2022 06:13
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https://mobile.twitter.com/CaseyBriggs/status/1516256468282253314 Albo's "useless campaigner" strategy is paying dividends.
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Apr 19, 2022 06:27
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Apr 19, 2022 06:51
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