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bowser
Apr 7, 2007

Excited to watch the headlines smoothly transition to "World Has a Historic Opportunity to Keep Warming Below 2.5C", then "Nations Pledge to Limit Warming to 4C", and then "Historic Agreements Seeks to Stop Warming at 6C"...

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Pepe Silvia Browne
Jan 1, 2007

actionjackson posted:

lol

no but i mean when you say "polar vortex collapsing" it's the jet stream collapsing that's causing the polar vortexes, right? not the vortexes themselves collapsing (not sure what that would even mean)

I'm not a meteorologist, but I thought the jetstream is getting weaker because the polar vortex is weaker, and the polar vortex is weaker because the part of the earth that is tilted away from the sun during the winter months of the year isn't as cold as it used to be.

Harold Fjord
Jan 3, 2004

bowser posted:

Excited to watch the headlines smoothly transition to "World Has a Historic Opportunity to Keep Warming Below 2.5C", then "Nations Pledge to Limit Warming to 4C", and then "Historic Agreements Seeks to Stop Warming at 6C"...

More like, "NATO interventions necessary to stop warming at 6C"

actionjackson
Jan 12, 2003

Pepe Silvia Browne posted:

I'm not a meteorologist, but I thought the jetstream is getting weaker because the polar vortex is weaker, and the polar vortex is weaker because the part of the earth that is tilted away from the sun during the winter months of the year isn't as cold as it used to be.

I thought the jet stream weakening caused the arctic air to go much farther south then it used to, so when that arctic air comes down here that's the polar vortex

JAY ZERO SUM GAME
Oct 18, 2005

Walter.
I know you know how to do this.
Get up.


china tried to stop climate change by releasing covid

but we all responded to covid exactly like climate change

owned

Pepe Silvia Browne
Jan 1, 2007

actionjackson posted:

I thought the jet stream weakening caused the arctic air to go much farther south then it used to, so when that arctic air comes down here that's the polar vortex

That is correct, but the polar vortex is the term for the mass of swirling cold air that's supposed to be above the north pole when it's pointed away from the sun. when it's very cold, it's strong, and the jet stream is strong, and it all stays up there. But now it's not as cold, and so it's weak, and the jet stream is weak, which is why the jet stream looks like a sine wave that like dips down into texas instead of a circle running through Canada and Greenland and Siberia.

Karach
May 23, 2003

no war but class war
If you're stressed out about the end of the world (seems reasonable), maybe you need to grieve for this dead earth. Through yoga.

https://www.goodgriefnetwork.org/yoga-for-ecological-grief/

quote:

Following opening meditation and introductory lecture detailing eco-grief and its relationship to yoga as a somatic, embodied, and relational practice, participants make their way through four modules, each consisting of a slow and deeply nourishing yoga class accompanied by a short lecture and handout expanding on themes and practices, as well as journal prompts and chance for interactive discussion with Laura and fellow participants.

Each class seamlessly braids together meditation and breath practices; mudras and accessible yin and restorative poses; and readings, poetry, and practices from Joanna Macy and the Work that Reconnects, Pema Chodron, Thich Nhat Hanh, Francis Weller, Bayo Akomolafe, Sharon Salzberg, Tricia Hersey, Rumi, and many other wise teachers for these times.

Participants will gain a deepened understanding of the radical power of ecological grief as well as a transformational toolkit of supportive embodied practices to return to both on and off the yoga mat. Folks brand new to yoga as well as seasoned practitioners will benefit, and all bodies are most welcome.

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

bowser posted:

Excited to watch the headlines smoothly transition to "World Has a Historic Opportunity to Keep Warming Below 2.5C", then "Nations Pledge to Limit Warming to 4C", and then "Historic Agreements Seeks to Stop Warming at 6C"...

nah i think they'll just stop printing headlines as current events become more and more "important" as the crisis escalates.

now is not the time to talk about climate change, we're at war*!


*with mexico over produce shipments

JAY ZERO SUM GAME
Oct 18, 2005

Walter.
I know you know how to do this.
Get up.


Trabisnikof posted:

nah i think they'll just stop printing headlines as current events become more and more "important" as the crisis escalates.

now is not the time to talk about climate change, we're at war*!


*with mexico over lithium mining

Thorn Wishes Talon
Oct 18, 2014

by Fluffdaddy

bowser posted:

Excited to watch the headlines smoothly transition to "World Has a Historic Opportunity to Keep Warming Below 2.5C", then "Nations Pledge to Limit Warming to 4C", and then "Historic Agreements Seeks to Stop Warming at 6C"...

4C is apocalyptic. There won't be any nations left by then.

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008

Thorn Wishes Talon posted:

4C is apocalyptic. There won't be any nations left by then.

Thank god we are bypassing that and going right to 6C+

Personally, my prediction is 8C

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008

Other prediction is that once more of the climate change effects start to trigger and we admit blowing past the 1.5C mark, we will double down on oil and gas since why bother trying to do anything?

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

Thorn Wishes Talon posted:

4C is apocalyptic. There won't be any nations left by then.

i think this is an unrealistically optimistic vision of how quick the collapse will be

Trainee PornStar
Jul 20, 2006

I'm just an inbetweener

SniperWoreConverse posted:

what is it with dads being vulnerable to climate change?

Out of everyone i know literally only my dad is the one who's starting to suspect there might be something to this mumbo jumbo i've been harping on, and it might be not so good. Everyone else either doesn't believe it's real or just doesn't believe it's something that can affect them.

My dad has been banging on about how we're all hosed since before 'climate change' became a thing.
He based his doomerism about how all the places like China & India will want the same standard of living as in the west & that's not sustainable.

So yeah... I guess dad is a bit of a racist old gently caress lol

Thorn Wishes Talon
Oct 18, 2014

by Fluffdaddy

Trabisnikof posted:

i think this is an unrealistically optimistic vision of how quick the collapse will be

the collapse will be slow, and then fast, imo

we will not see it coming, despite rooting for it to arrive

IAMKOREA
Apr 21, 2007

Trainee PornStar posted:

My dad has been banging on about how we're all hosed since before 'climate change' became a thing.
He based his doomerism about how all the places like China & India will want the same standard of living as in the west & that's not sustainable.

So yeah... I guess dad is a bit of a racist old gently caress lol

Good news for your dad, Chinese people already enjoy a higher standard of living than Americans

Thorn Wishes Talon
Oct 18, 2014

by Fluffdaddy

IAMKOREA posted:

Good news for your dad, Chinese people already enjoy a higher standard of living than Americans

lol

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

Thorn Wishes Talon posted:

the collapse will be slow, and then fast, imo

we will not see it coming, despite rooting for it to arrive

I think that’s accurate for our existing civilization, but I think we’ll hit +4C (from pre-industrial) before all successor civilizations are extinguished

Trainee PornStar
Jul 20, 2006

I'm just an inbetweener

IAMKOREA posted:

Good news for your dad, Chinese people already enjoy a higher standard of living than Americans

We're in the UK so it's even more hilarious :)

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

Actually upon reflection, we’ll keep the +1.5 and +2 degree targets but constantly just shift the base year.


So the headlines in 2025 will read “scientists say hope remains to hit 1.5C” and they’ll be using a 2015 base year.

Pryor on Fire
May 14, 2013

they don't know all alien abduction experiences can be explained by people thinking saving private ryan was a documentary

Trabisnikof posted:

Actually upon reflection, we’ll keep the +1.5 and +2 degree targets but constantly just shift the base year.


So the headlines in 2025 will read “scientists say hope remains to hit 1.5C” and they’ll be using a 2015 base year.

Yes, this is probably what will happen. If you were born after 1970 or so then you have no memory of what a real winter was like, you have to just read about it in history books. Every winter has been abnormally hot since then. In Colorado there are tons of old stories about people getting stranded for weeks or months by big snow storms and buses full of schoolkids freezing to death in the brutal cold. That poo poo simply does not happen anymore, it's ancient history.

Pryor on Fire has issued a correction as of 19:19 on Apr 19, 2022

an actual frog
Mar 1, 2007


HEH, HEH, HEH!
C-SPAM › [Biosphere Collapse]

Thorn Wishes Talon posted:

we will not see it coming, despite rooting for it to arrive

Microplastics
Jul 6, 2007

:discourse:
It's what's for dinner.

Thorn Wishes Talon posted:

the collapse will be slow, and then fast, imo

Someone made a post a few months back about how a complex system undergoing stress shows a gradual decline but manages to just about hang on as it reorganises to compensate for the loss of nodes, but then after a certain critical point, it can no longer do this and just falls apart suddenly like a house of cards. And this applies to lots of things like degenerative brain disease and ecosystems.

So yeah, slow then fast. The question is: are we already in the slow part? And if so, how far along?

Microplastics
Jul 6, 2007

:discourse:
It's what's for dinner.
E: god dammit that is the first time I've ever quoted myself instead of editing in my long, illustrious posting career :argh:

kyojin
Jun 15, 2005

I MASHED THE KEYS AND LOOK WHAT I MADE
I rewatched The Age of Stupid a few weeks ago and apparently the deadline year for radically changing society to reduce emissions is 2015 lmao

Cloks
Feb 1, 2013

by Azathoth

JeremoudCorbynejad posted:

So yeah, slow then fast. The question is: are we already in the slow part? And if so, how far along?

we've been in the slow part for quite some time

Pobrecito
Jun 16, 2020

hasta que la muerte nos separe

mawarannahr posted:

my dad worked for an oil company in the 80s and it fucks me up

my dad worked at one his entire adult life and even remotely talking about environmentalism adjacent topics gets him foaming at the mouth

Trainee PornStar
Jul 20, 2006

I'm just an inbetweener

JeremoudCorbynejad posted:

E: god dammit that is the first time I've ever quoted myself instead of editing in my long, illustrious posting career :argh:

I've done this before.... It's got absolutely nothing to do with alcohol!!

Pobrecito
Jun 16, 2020

hasta que la muerte nos separe
what if we just made all the nurdles white and dumped a bunch in the arctic to raise the albedo

TeenageArchipelago
Jul 23, 2013


Pobrecito posted:

what if we just made all the nurdles white and dumped a bunch in the arctic to raise the albedo

Mr President

Cup Runneth Over
Aug 8, 2009

She said life's
Too short to worry
Life's too long to wait
It's too short
Not to love everybody
Life's too long to hate


DesertIslandHermit posted:

Oh I totally believe this will happen 3-4x faster.

it better not, I need to check out before then

Cup Runneth Over
Aug 8, 2009

She said life's
Too short to worry
Life's too long to wait
It's too short
Not to love everybody
Life's too long to hate


JeremoudCorbynejad posted:

The question is: are we already in the slow part?

lol

Hexigrammus
May 22, 2006

Cheech Wizard stories are clean, wholesome, reflective truths that go great with the marijuana munchies and a blow job.

Karach posted:

If you're stressed out about the end of the world (seems reasonable), maybe you need to grieve for this dead earth. Through yoga.

https://www.goodgriefnetwork.org/yoga-for-ecological-grief/


"Cost: Sliding scale available"

I'm guessing one end is anchored at well above $0, the other at $$$whack in the nuts eye-watering, like any good North American religion.



bedpan posted:

Other prediction is that once more of the climate change effects start to trigger and we admit blowing past the 1.5C mark, we will double down on oil and gas since why bother trying to do anything?


Nothing??? Have you not heard of Carbon Capture and Sequestration??? Rick Chalaturnyk, a professor of geotechnical engineering at the University of Alberta claims we're sequestering megatonnes of CO2 already using it as an enema to get old oilfields flowing.

There was an interview on CBC's "The Current" this morning with him and a professor of geography and environmental studies from the University of Regina. For someone who should be anchored in numbers the dude seems to have a severe copium addiction. Listen for the lols, there's nothing of value here otherwise.

Samuel Glompers
Nov 26, 2020

JeremoudCorbynejad posted:

The question is: are we already in the slow part? And if so, how far along?

Thread consensus seems to be we are in the last 10~20 years of the slow part, with each year being a bit faster than the last. And 20 seems really senselessly optimistic at this point, lol! LOL!!! :unsmigghh:

The Protagonist
Jun 29, 2009

The average is 5.5? I thought it was 4. This is very unsettling.

Pobrecito posted:

what if we just made all the nurdles white and dumped a bunch in the arctic to raise the albedo

i recommended coating the ocean with pingpong balls some time ago :colbert:

in lieu of that, many many bombs made to deliver several megatons of mylar fragments into LEO might help?? *w/ the added benefit of accelerating kessler syndrome and trapping us here until we get our poo poo sorted

nikosoft
Dec 17, 2011

ghost in the shell, but somehow much worse
College Slice
We've spent a dozen days the past couple of months up at my parents house quite literally raking the forest, so Trump certainly got one thing right. This is an oak savanna biome, so historically fire used to rip through here periodically, either via natural means or carefully cultivated by the indigenous population, at least up until they were driven from their lands and ethnically cleansed by the settlers. There's really something about cleaning out two hundred years worth of oak leaves and detris from in between scattered granite boulders in the name of fire safety, it's kind of loving me up a bit.

It's amazing how much change has occurred in the last five years. Everyone is working hard to create defensible space, I think my parents will be part of some local grant or rebate program that can be applied towards their fire insurance (if it isn't canceled outright). Most houses in the area now have goats in order to keep the grass on their property under control. A PG&E crew spent a week on my parents property last year cutting down trees that had grown up around the powerlines, since they are supposed to maintain that from the road until the pole where it goes into the house (this is the area we are currently working on clearing debris from).

The more things change, the more they stay the same though. Despite worrying about fire and consciously taking steps to create and maintain that defensible space, if you ask them why we are in this situation, you'll get a rant about how we don't have to enough dams, or because we let too much water out of the dams for the fish, or the environmentalists don't let us log enough, or whatever. It's like dude, you can literally look out your back porch and see the Sierra and see how little snow there is most years, and how the snow comes later and melts earlier each year. They barely get snow at their house anymore, but I vividly remember many snow days there as a kid. Or you can look around in Tahoe and see all of the dead and dying pine trees from the drought and the bark beetle. How does a dam solve all of that? And then my mom talks about how maybe they should just sell and movr to Florida, I mention something about sea level rise, and she just looks at me like??? God drat it!

Cup Runneth Over
Aug 8, 2009

She said life's
Too short to worry
Life's too long to wait
It's too short
Not to love everybody
Life's too long to hate


idk why people in here are so worried about microplastics. you've been eating Red No. 40 for decades. you are one with petroleum

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

Pobrecito posted:

what if we just made all the nurdles white and dumped a bunch in the arctic to raise the albedo

Please we’re not that stupid, we can use glass!

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2018EF000820


quote:

There are a number of commercially available materials that fulfill some or all of the above characteristics,including some kinds of sheet-type materials, and some granular materials, including a class of commercialmaterials known as hollow glass microspheres. In layman’s terms, these latter materials can be regarded tobe chemically and physically like sand, but arefloatable and round.One of the granular materials on which Ice911 Research has done its small-scalefield testing in Minnesotaand in the Arctic for ice and snow preservation is K1 microspheres, a member of the 3 M Glass Bubbles familyof products. This product consists of bright white hollow glass spheres, of average diameter 65μm, chosenfor its brightness, nontoxic formulation, and relatively low cost. This material has a density ranging from 0.10to 0.14 gm/cm3, with a typical value of 0.125 gm/cm3, and a particle size distribution (microns, by volume) of10th percentile: 30μm; 50th percentile: 65μm; and 90th percentile: 115μm.

skooma512
Feb 8, 2012

You couldn't grok my race car, but you dug the roadside blur.

The Protagonist posted:

i recommended coating the ocean with pingpong balls some time ago :colbert:

in lieu of that, many many bombs made to deliver several megatons of mylar fragments into LEO might help?? *w/ the added benefit of accelerating kessler syndrome and trapping us here until we get our poo poo sorted

We are trapped here anyway thanks to the speed of light and radiation, no reason to gently caress up the sky.

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fits my needs
Jan 1, 2011

Grimey Drawer

nikosoft posted:

We've spent a dozen days the past couple of months up at my parents house quite literally raking the forest, so Trump certainly got one thing right. This is an oak savanna biome, so historically fire used to rip through here periodically, either via natural means or carefully cultivated by the indigenous population, at least up until they were driven from their lands and ethnically cleansed by the settlers. There's really something about cleaning out two hundred years worth of oak leaves and detris from in between scattered granite boulders in the name of fire safety, it's kind of loving me up a bit.

It's amazing how much change has occurred in the last five years. Everyone is working hard to create defensible space, I think my parents will be part of some local grant or rebate program that can be applied towards their fire insurance (if it isn't canceled outright). Most houses in the area now have goats in order to keep the grass on their property under control. A PG&E crew spent a week on my parents property last year cutting down trees that had grown up around the powerlines, since they are supposed to maintain that from the road until the pole where it goes into the house (this is the area we are currently working on clearing debris from).

The more things change, the more they stay the same though. Despite worrying about fire and consciously taking steps to create and maintain that defensible space, if you ask them why we are in this situation, you'll get a rant about how we don't have to enough dams, or because we let too much water out of the dams for the fish, or the environmentalists don't let us log enough, or whatever. It's like dude, you can literally look out your back porch and see the Sierra and see how little snow there is most years, and how the snow comes later and melts earlier each year. They barely get snow at their house anymore, but I vividly remember many snow days there as a kid. Or you can look around in Tahoe and see all of the dead and dying pine trees from the drought and the bark beetle. How does a dam solve all of that? And then my mom talks about how maybe they should just sell and movr to Florida, I mention something about sea level rise, and she just looks at me like??? God drat it!

hey they could move to vegas too

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