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shame on an IGA
Apr 8, 2005

A.o.D. posted:

RULE #1 NO NOT BELIEVING IN YOURSELF

God, somebody needs to crowdsource Kenny G into a ukranian propaganda video

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MrYenko
Jun 18, 2012

#2 isn't ALWAYS bad...

EasilyConfused posted:

Are there different variations of artillery ammo for NATO 155mm (like AP vs. HE in naval or tank guns)? If so that might also be a factor.

In any case, nobody ever complains they have too much ammo for their weapons.

No, that’s the point of NATO logistics standardization. If an American unit gets detached and finds itself fighting alongside Belgians or Germans or Italians and it says 155mm and NATO on the crate, their NATO-standard 155mm artillery piece* will be able to physically fire it, though I’d assume that different projectiles from different countries might have different ballistics tables.

*Small caveat that certain precision munitions require further hardware on the gun to interface with the electronics in the PGM, but that’s probably not the case here.

IPCRESS
May 27, 2012
Here's a question for the thread:

What does the end of this war look like?

Does this bed in as Russia's foreverwar, the only prospect of an off ramp being the eventual fall of Putin (probably due to death by natural causes)? Until the next republican administration calls off Ukrainian military aid, with genocide of 44 million people being quietly swept under the rug?

Defenestrategy
Oct 24, 2010

IPCRESS posted:

Here's a question for the thread:

What does the end of this war look like?

Does this bed in as Russia's foreverwar, the only prospect of an off ramp being the eventual fall of Putin (probably due to death by natural causes)? Until the next republican administration calls off Ukrainian military aid, with genocide of 44 million people being quietly swept under the rug?

If the war stays the course the next republican president isnt gonna be sworn in quick enough to do anything kompromat or no. I suspect the end state will be Ukraine at least retakes all ground it lost and possibly the two break away areas and holds crimeas water ransom.

CRUSTY MINGE
Mar 30, 2011

Peggy Hill
Foot Connoisseur
Does Crimea not have groundwater or are the russians incapable of operating a well drill that isn't aimed at oil and gas pockets?

Kazinsal
Dec 13, 2011

CRUSTY MINGE posted:

Does Crimea not have groundwater or are the russians incapable of operating a well drill that isn't aimed at oil and gas pockets?

The water table has been declining sharply in recent years, so existing wells aren't deep enough to draw groundwater anymore.

Wibla
Feb 16, 2011

CRUSTY MINGE posted:

Does Crimea not have groundwater or are the russians incapable of operating a well drill that isn't aimed at oil and gas pockets?

They ran out of ground water :v:

CRUSTY MINGE
Mar 30, 2011

Peggy Hill
Foot Connoisseur
Thank you, I was unaware of their water crisis.

Maybe develop desalination next time instead of invading the neighbor again.

Kazinsal
Dec 13, 2011
IIRC part of the problem is that the aquifers are maintained by the artificial canals that supply freshwater from the Dnipro, so when there's been drought in Crimea in the past couple years due to climate change and you've recently given Ukraine cause to shut off the canals, the aquifers get more and more drained.

I am however not a hydrogeologist so I could be off base here.

A Festivus Miracle
Dec 19, 2012

I have come to discourse on the profound inequities of the American political system.

WELL

Essentially, when you drain a freshwater aquifer near to an ocean, what ends up happening is that the aquifer refills with sea water. So, not only are freshwater supplies from the North no longer coming, the continued depletion of groundwater is speeding up the infiltration of sea water from the Black Sea. The only two ways to fix a saltwatered coastal aquifer is to essentially pump so much water into it that it dilutes to drinkable form again OR give up and accept a life of desalination and the death of regional agriculture. California did this exact same thing to their aquifers in the 1930s, they at least had the luxury of then being on the receiving end of the largest series of agricultural water works ever developed by man. You can actually live in harmony with the sea trying to infiltrate your coastal aquifers, but it requires a carefully regulated system of withdrawals that is also sensitive to regional rainfall...which is something I doubt the Russian state has enough bureaucratic control to assert.

Budzilla
Oct 14, 2007

We can all learn from our past mistakes.

CRUSTY MINGE posted:

Thank you, I was unaware of their water crisis.

Maybe develop desalination next time instead of invading the neighbor again.

https://youtu.be/Aqq8clIceys

A good primer on the water situation in Crimea. It should be pointed out there were extremely heavy rains causing flooding last year so the crisis was eased a bit.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

MrYenko posted:

No, that’s the point of NATO logistics standardization. If an American unit gets detached and finds itself fighting alongside Belgians or Germans or Italians and it says 155mm and NATO on the crate, their NATO-standard 155mm artillery piece* will be able to physically fire it, though I’d assume that different projectiles from different countries might have different ballistics tables.

*Small caveat that certain precision munitions require further hardware on the gun to interface with the electronics in the PGM, but that’s probably not the case here.

I think the question was about different ammunition types. In which case the answer is yes - there's HE, smoke, and illumination rounds at a minimum. The US also has cluster mines that can be delivered via artillery, but I doubt those are NATO standard.

Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...

shame on an IGA posted:

God, somebody needs to crowdsource Kenny G into a ukranian propaganda video

i was about to hum danger zone and then realized you werent talking about Kenny Loggins

VictualSquid
Feb 29, 2012

Gently enveloping the target with indiscriminate love.
The water crisis on Crimea is pretty significant for both sides.
The Ukrainians have it as an example of the mismanagement of the 2014 invasion, which eradicated support for Putin from among the ethnically/linguistically Russians within Ukraine. Because they correctly blame Putin for the crisis.
Putin has annexing the water-sources that used to supply Crimea as part of his "compromise" suggestions during the negotiations.

Prop Wash
Jun 12, 2010



IPCRESS posted:

Here's a question for the thread:

What does the end of this war look like?

Does this bed in as Russia's foreverwar, the only prospect of an off ramp being the eventual fall of Putin (probably due to death by natural causes)? Until the next republican administration calls off Ukrainian military aid, with genocide of 44 million people being quietly swept under the rug?

Wars don’t end until one side capitulates or until a stronger external power forces an agreement. With china sitting on its thumbs and the US/EU supplying Ukraine the worry is that there’s no real way for this war to end - even if Ukraine pushes all Russian troops beyond the border, I’m still not sure Putin would sign a treaty. In the meantime, Ukrainians are suffering. They’ve been doing better than anyone imagined but do they really want to suffer until Russia capitulates if they can sign something earlier at the cost of Crimea or even one of the contested eastern regions?

All that to say I think Ukraine is going to sign something, even with slightly unfavorable terms, and then work seriously on a mutual defense treaty with Europe. I don’t see this becoming a foreverwar.

EasilyConfused
Nov 21, 2009


one strong toad

psydude posted:

I think the question was about different ammunition types. In which case the answer is yes - there's HE, smoke, and illumination rounds at a minimum. The US also has cluster mines that can be delivered via artillery, but I doubt those are NATO standard.

Yeah, that's what I was asking about, thanks.

Jimmy Smuts
Aug 8, 2000

Hopefully Putin ends up realizing the error of his ways and pulls out. But realistically, it might take him committing suicide with 2 bullets to the back of his head while accidentally falling out a window while also accidentally ingesting polonium in order for this war to end.
I mean, Russians do apparently like loving around with radioactive stuff soo

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Ukraine has apparently already received fighter jets and parts.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/20/ukraine-russia-fighter-jets-weapons-war/

quote:

Ukraine’s outgunned and outmanned military has held out against Russia for almost two months, and as Russia intensifies its attacks on Ukraine’s east and south, Western governments are dispatching heavier weaponry and warplanes to support resistance efforts.

President Biden approved a new $800 million aid package last week that dramatically expanded the scope of weapons Washington has supplied to Kyiv. The package included 155mm howitzers — a serious upgrade in long-range artillery to match Russian systems — 40,000 artillery rounds and 11 Soviet-designed Mi-17 helicopters.

The latter fit well with Ukraine’s existing arsenal because those use a similar operating system as the Mi-8 helicopters that Kyiv has used for decades, said Alexey Muraviev, a national security expert at Australia’s Curtin University.

“We do the best we can with each package to tailor it to the need at the time, and now the need has changed,” Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said Tuesday. “The war has changed, because now the Russians have prioritized the Donbas area, and that’s a whole different level of fighting, a whole different type of fighting.”

Ukraine has also received fighter aircraft and related parts from other nations, Kirby said. He declined to specify what kind of aircraft has been supplied or which countries have provided them.

Some of the materiel will arrive ahead of expected clashes between Russian and Ukrainian troops in the eastern Donbas region that will be particularly bloody, said Chang Jun Yan, a military expert at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University. Future combat is likely to be larger in scale than recent battles between the two countries, he said, but Ukrainian troops who have been facing off against Russian-backed separatists in the region for years are also well trained to fight in Donbas.

But fresh weapons deliveries and familiarity with terrain do not mean Ukrainian forces will have an easy time against Russian troops that have superior arms. A senior U.S. defense official said this week that Russia was learning from its failure to seize Kyiv, the capital, and making adjustments to its command-and-control and logistics structures.

“The resupply of Ukraine is not just important but has to happen quickly and has to happen in large scale,” said Mick Ryan, a retired Australian army major general, who has been analyzing the invasion. “It also has to assume that the Russians might interdict some shipment.”

Other Western nations have also moved to deliver more sophisticated weapons to Ukraine as the war evolves. Britain in April pledged a defense support package worth some $130 million that includes more antitank missiles, air defense systems and nonlethal equipment. Norway announced Wednesday that it would donate 100 Mistral air defense missiles on top of the light anti-armor weapons it promised late last month. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said Tuesday that his government is sending “heavier” military equipment soon.

Farther afield, the Australian government has started sending Bushmasters to Kyiv after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky asked lawmakers in Canberra for the armored vehicles last month. The 20 promised Bushmasters will protect Ukrainians from explosives, artillery shrapnel and small-arms fire, Canberra said.

Ukraine will require arms deliveries well into the future if it is to fight off Russia, and analysts say the 40,000 rounds Washington has promised would last no more than two weeks on the battlefield. “Quantity really matters a lot,” said Ryan. “Even though I think the Ukrainians qualitatively are better, they still need a certain mass to repel the Russians.”

Although some equipment — such as the Bushmasters — is advanced, much of what the West is providing is not as sophisticated as the weapons in Russia’s arsenal. (Western leaders have insisted that they send equipment that is readily usable. The United States has also committed to training Ukrainian forces that are out of the country to use new weapons.)

Most of the West’s arms “would not give the Ukrainian military the technological edge of the Russian military, but they will allow it to make up, at least temporarily, for the shortage of military supplies,” Muraviev said.

e: Question for artillery people. I thought that the soviet artillery used a different unit of measurement than NATO equipment (e.g. the M777), which uses milliradians. I recall this being a problem with Afghan artillery units that were used to older soviet era guns. How hard is it to switch? I'm guessing it's more than just the case of using new firing tables.

psydude fucked around with this message at 12:31 on Apr 20, 2022

Chopstix
Nov 20, 2002

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_kGtIJxAH3A

It has Commie nazis, transport and fighter aircrafts, and ….. even wooden pallets

glynnenstein
Feb 18, 2014


Godholio posted:

It's very easy for the operators to focus on the thing they've spotted on scope. This is basic human factors stuff. Throw adrenaline on top, too. It's not just about the radar focusing it's energy, it's also potentially the person doing their equivalent.

Going along those lines...

https://twitter.com/R_P_one/status/1515831703973117958

cruft
Oct 25, 2007

Defenestrategy posted:

If the war stays the course the next republican president isnt gonna be sworn in quick enough to do anything kompromat or no. I suspect the end state will be Ukraine at least retakes all ground it lost and possibly the two break away areas and holds crimeas water ransom.

No matter what, though, Ukraine is now bursting at the seams with weapons, and I can't see how this plays out well for the country's stability over the next 10-30 years.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

cruft posted:

No matter what, though, Ukraine is now bursting at the seams with weapons, and I can't see how this plays out well for the country's stability over the next 10-30 years.

Given that they now have to live in fear of a Russia invasion that is actively happening: Their stability is already largely hosed. Its amazing they've held up this well.

Grip it and rip it
Apr 28, 2020

cruft posted:

No matter what, though, Ukraine is now bursting at the seams with weapons, and I can't see how this plays out well for the country's stability over the next 10-30 years.

Yeah uh, the threat to stability in Ukraine is Russia, not that they have arms. In fact the threat to regional and even international security in this moment is largely a belligerent Russia who feels entitled to attack its neighbors for no legitimate reason.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

cruft posted:

No matter what, though, Ukraine is now bursting at the seams with weapons, and I can't see how this plays out well for the country's stability over the next 10-30 years.

You've done an excellent job of distilling Central and Western Europe's views on this issue into a single sentence.

FrozenVent
May 1, 2009

The Boeing 737-200QC is the undisputed workhorse of the skies.
Idk America has been bursting at the seams with weapons for a while and it seems relatively stable, spicy capitol tourism excluded.

M_Gargantua
Oct 16, 2006

STOMP'N ON INTO THE POWERLINES

Exciting Lemon
I'd think that the horror of war and russian threat would be a great unifying force for a decade. Nothing brings people together like having squabbles short circuited by an external threat.

A.o.D.
Jan 15, 2006
The mere existence of weapons does not create instability, late stage liberalism theory be damned

Sentinel
Jan 1, 2009

High Tech
Low Life


The all too recent memory's of your family and countrymen getting slaughtered arent gonna evaporate overnight.
And i dont see them suddenly hateing zelensky when this is all over.

M_Gargantua posted:

I'd think that the horror of war and russian threat would be a great unifying force for a decade. Nothing brings people together like having squabbles short circuited by an external threat.

Proud Christian Mom
Dec 20, 2006
READING COMPREHENSION IS HARD

FrozenVent posted:

Idk America has been bursting at the seams with weapons for a while and it seems relatively stable, spicy capitol tourism excluded.

Some dipshits with 40 ARs is not equivalent at all to us littering the countryside with anti armor weapons and high explosives

lightpole
Jun 4, 2004
I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".

Proud Christian Mom posted:

Some dipshits with 40 ARs is not equivalent at all to us littering the countryside with anti armor weapons and high explosives

The common citizenry is not going to start randomly shooting high explosives at their neighbors if thats the implication. The biggest worry would be instability but Ukraine has a stable government with several peaceful transfers of power. Theres no real civil war in the country. It will require significant amounts of aid to clean up but that should be obvious.

Post WW2 recovery was possible, there's no reason it isn't here.

If you want to use linear thinking, you could look at the difference in African countries (usually civil war along ethnic lines and large amounts of arms) and European post WW2?

lightpole fucked around with this message at 15:57 on Apr 20, 2022

Metrilenkki
Aug 1, 2007

Oldskool av for lowtaxes medical fund gobbless u -fellow roamingdad
As an old war in the east -grognard I've wondered if the russians have formed actual wartime battalion-brigade-div/corps organisational units on are they just shuffling mobilized individuals and remnants from destroyed BTGs into existing ones.

Reinforcing existing BTGs is I guess a faster way to have a deployable unit, but they don't seem to lend themselves into combined arms offensives very well. So I suppose this is the way they'll go since they seem to do everything else the hard way too. They haven't thankfully had the time for reorganization either.

Marshal Prolapse
Jun 23, 2012

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-04-20-22/h_5222481b5ffa2b502aa2c884434458a5

quote:

Two employees of a zoo in Kharkiv who stayed behind last month to take care of animals amid heavy shelling from Russian forces were found dead, the zoo said in a statement Tuesday.

The Feldman Ecopark zoo said it received confirmation on Monday that the employees had been shot and killed by Russian soldiers and found barricaded in a room.

It was not clear from the statement when the employees died but the zoo said they went missing in early March.

Several animals were evacuated during the shelling, the zoo said, including lions, jaguars, silver foxes and hyenas.

The two employees stayed behind to feed the remaining animals. When other staff returned to the park on March 7, the employees were missing, according to the zoo.

“The staff searched for them and informed law enforcement,” Feldman Ecopark said.
“We’ll cherish the blessed memory of these wonderful and courageous people. Sincere condolences to their families and friends. We believe the inhumane people who have committed this will definitely be punished!”
Parts of the park have been damaged from shelling. A pair of bison were killed, leaving behind a 10-month old calf, the zoo said.

Some context: Kharkiv, located in northeast Ukraine, has faced intense shelling and attacks since the start of the Russian invasion.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russian shelling had killed five residents and wounded 15 others on Sunday. He added that in the last few days, 18 people in total have been killed and 106 have been wounded by Russian shelling in the city.

Scum in every way possible.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

cruft posted:

No matter what, though, Ukraine is now bursting at the seams with weapons, and I can't see how this plays out well for the country's stability over the next 10-30 years.

That's a problem to be dealt with in the next 10-30 years, not now.

Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

Organized crime in Europe regularly uses weaponry from the Yugoslav wars, so it's not a completely unfounded concern, just a really minor concern compared to a warlike dictatorship hellbent on conquering its former territories.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

We have open audio recordings of Russian troops being told to kill any civilians they find. Its beyond nuts that this isn't being hammered.

Hannibal Rex
Feb 13, 2010

Proud Christian Mom posted:

Some dipshits with 40 ARs is not equivalent at all to us littering the countryside with anti armor weapons and high explosives

Most of the littering is being done by Russians.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Proud Christian Mom posted:

Some dipshits with 40 ARs is not equivalent at all to us littering the countryside with anti armor weapons and high explosives

Invasions are really good as spreading weapons around, especially since the Russians are abandoning them in such haste.

Xakura
Jan 10, 2019

A safety-conscious little mouse!

Proud Christian Mom posted:

Some dipshits with 40 ARs is not equivalent at all to us littering the countryside with anti armor weapons and high explosives

Is this the "if you build it, they will come" of terrorism analysis? If you have weapons, instability will spontaneously erupt?

(I think it is in incredibly poor taste to :qqsay: about weapons shipments to ukraine right now, when they are using them to fight off an invasion, and asking for more)

Qtotonibudinibudet
Nov 7, 2011



Omich poluyobok, skazhi ty narkoman? ya prosto tozhe gde to tam zhivu, mogli by vmeste uyobyvat' narkotiki
imagine a happier outcome yall. in a decade or so some farmer will have made a nice food truck-esque setup out of abandoned T-84 carcasses and it'll be a nice neighborhood lunch spot

slava ukrainian doobie

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Crab Dad
Dec 28, 2002

behold i have tempered and refined thee, but not as silver; as CRAB


cruft posted:

No matter what, though, Ukraine is now bursting at the seams with weapons, and I can't see how this plays out well for the country's stability over the next 10-30 years.

Look at Croatia. It’s fine.

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