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Grip it and rip it
Apr 28, 2020
Seems like the Ukrainians arent too concerned about the stability implications of these arms shipments. I would defer to them for matters of internal stability and cohesion in this situation.

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CRUSTY MINGE
Mar 30, 2011

Peggy Hill
Foot Connoisseur

Budzilla posted:

https://youtu.be/Aqq8clIceys

A good primer on the water situation in Crimea. It should be pointed out there were extremely heavy rains causing flooding last year so the crisis was eased a bit.

Thank you, I'm adding that to my youtube list for the afternoon. I'm still celebrating the high holiday so it won't sink in if I watch it now, but I still wanted to say thanks for posting the video.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

CommieGIR posted:

We have open audio recordings of Russian troops being told to kill any civilians they find. Its beyond nuts that this isn't being hammered.

Well if it's any consolation, a lot of those murders and their leadership are going to be dead by the end of this thing.

ekuNNN
Nov 27, 2004

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
"A Ukrainian tank blows up a Russian BMP by firing through a building in Luhansk."
https://va.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_ram7jkoVYB1vmay6q.mp4

"American volunteers in Ukraine"
https://va.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_ram82udGTK1vmay6q.mp4

Marshal Prolapse
Jun 23, 2012

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

CommieGIR posted:

We have open audio recordings of Russian troops being told to kill any civilians they find. Its beyond nuts that this isn't being hammered.

Yeah, I was just listening to one. At this point I’m just waiting for proof those filtration camps are just concentration (in the German post wwii context) or death camps. Even after this war ends Russian soldiers and officials will be turning up dead for decades.

Tiny Timbs
Sep 6, 2008

psydude posted:

Well if it's any consolation, a lot of those murders and their leadership are going to be dead by the end of this thing.

Not enough to remove the intentional slaughter of civilians from the arsenal of every decision-making level in Russia. That these acts are part of the plan and not isolated instances of soldiers behaving badly in wartime is making me think pretty poorly of their society.

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

Oh that reminds me they figured out the identity of the "it's okay to rape if you use condoms" couple

That Works
Jul 22, 2006

Every revolution evaporates and leaves behind only the slime of a new bureaucracy


Proud Christian Mom posted:

Some dipshits with 40 ARs is not equivalent at all to us littering the countryside with anti armor weapons and high explosives

I get your point but also police depts all around the country have just stupid amounts of armor, explosives etc that they likely don't need. Not hard to envision a scenario where the local police dept just says lol no to the mayor and/or gov and has defacto rule. Hell Portland, OR seems to be on that trajectory as it is.

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

That Works posted:

I get your point but also police depts all around the country have just stupid amounts of armor, explosives etc that they likely don't need. Not hard to envision a scenario where the local police dept just says lol no to the mayor and/or gov and has defacto rule. Hell Portland, OR seems to be on that trajectory as it is.

Not hard to envision a scenario where that police chief gets shot dead by state National Guard troops, either

orange juche
Mar 14, 2012



That Works posted:

I get your point but also police depts all around the country have just stupid amounts of armor, explosives etc that they likely don't need. Not hard to envision a scenario where the local police dept just says lol no to the mayor and/or gov and has defacto rule. Hell Portland, OR seems to be on that trajectory as it is.

If a police chief or whoever does that it's literally an armed uprising and the state government is wholly within their power to call up NG troops to put down an armed uprising, if need be,

Sentinel
Jan 1, 2009

High Tech
Low Life



"We Push."

CainFortea
Oct 15, 2004


orange juche posted:

If a police chief or whoever does that it's literally an armed uprising and the state government is wholly within their power to call up NG troops to put down an armed uprising, if need be,

Lol who do you think is pushing the police to have all that gear. Hint. It's the state governments.

That Works
Jul 22, 2006

Every revolution evaporates and leaves behind only the slime of a new bureaucracy


zoux posted:

Not hard to envision a scenario where that police chief gets shot dead by state National Guard troops, either


orange juche posted:

If a police chief or whoever does that it's literally an armed uprising and the state government is wholly within their power to call up NG troops to put down an armed uprising, if need be,

Yes right, and an open conflict between city and state level militias isn't exactly a feature of "stable countries".

Madurai
Jun 26, 2012

Well now I want to see someone try and hold up a liquor store with a towed 155

Casimir Radon
Aug 2, 2008


Madurai posted:

Well now I want to see someone try and hold up a liquor store with a towed 155

I do believe I have you covered.

stealie72
Jan 10, 2007
EFB with a better reference.

Madurai posted:

Well now I want to see someone try and hold up a liquor store with a towed 155
The Wayans Brothers kinda sorta have you covered: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q6hzqQHJChM&t=22s

Cimber
Feb 3, 2014

CainFortea posted:

Lol who do you think is pushing the police to have all that gear. Hint. It's the state governments.

The military/industrial complex needs to sell more guns and armored cars

Answer? Militarize our police.

Then we get yahoos who want to fire heavy weapons but not have to deal with, you know, military training, military discipline and a NCO corps who is going to chew your rear end into tiny shreds if you gently caress up just a little.

They get the guns and a 'blue lives matter' mentality protecting them, plus a strong union.

Taerkar
Dec 7, 2002

kind of into it, really

Jasper Tin Neck posted:

Organized crime in Europe regularly uses weaponry from the Yugoslav wars, so it's not a completely unfounded concern, just a really minor concern compared to a warlike dictatorship hellbent on conquering its former territories.

The collapse and splintering of the region no doubt helped to facilitate that. If Ukraine holds together and the government/military does not collapse then I expect it to be a relatively minor issue, esp. since they reportedly have much better inventory controls these days.

The Russian stuff, however... discount black market ahead!

ArmyGroup303
Apr 10, 2004

If this were real life, I would have piloted this helicopter with you still in it.

Sentinel posted:

"We Push."

That exchanged look is darkly funny.

Proud Christian Mom
Dec 20, 2006
READING COMPREHENSION IS HARD

That Works posted:

I get your point but also police depts all around the country have just stupid amounts of armor, explosives etc that they likely don't need. Not hard to envision a scenario where the local police dept just says lol no to the mayor and/or gov and has defacto rule. Hell Portland, OR seems to be on that trajectory as it is.

There isn't a single major city in America that has positive civilian control over it's police force.

Comrade Blyatlov
Aug 4, 2007


should have picked four fingers





Proud Christian Mom posted:

There isn't a single major city in America that has positive civilian control over it's police force.

I can definitely see how this is relevant to the conflict in Ukraine.

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1516883853431955456

Oh no NATO fell right into Putin's trap :ohdear:

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Man, Fox News Russia is almost worse than ours. Almost.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Honestly the thing that scares me now is how quickly and horribly NATO would destroy any and all conventional Russian forces. Which means Russia would have to fall back on their nukes out of sheer necessity.

GD_American
Jul 21, 2004

LISTEN TO WHAT I HAVE TO SAY AS IT'S INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT!

FrozenVent posted:

Idk America has been bursting at the seams with weapons for a while and it seems relatively stable, spicy capitol tourism excluded.

this goddamn thread has had me using "spicy" in non-traditional ways in real life that confuse the straights

ASAPI
Apr 20, 2007
I invented the line.

psydude posted:

Honestly the thing that scares me now is how quickly and horribly NATO would destroy any and all conventional Russian forces. Which means Russia would have to fall back on their nukes out of sheer necessity.

I was thinking along those lines also.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

ASAPI posted:

I was thinking along those lines also.

Maybe after destroying their conventional forces in Ukraine, Russia will refrain from attacking a NATO country. Then they won't have to fall back on anything.

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

They ain’t gonna do poo poo, they are stomping around and having a tantrum. If they think NATO stores are going to be exhausted, they should take a look in their own depots.

BeastOfExmoor
Aug 19, 2003

I will be gone, but not forever.

I really appreciate how Russia's panel TV shows all look like some incredibly weird 80's/90's game show.

Alchenar
Apr 9, 2008

BeastOfExmoor posted:

I really appreciate how Russia's panel TV shows all look like some incredibly weird 80's/90's game show.

Yeah it's like they're playing a solo version of Family Fortune but every topic is 'give me your far right manifesto on'

Tiny Timbs
Sep 6, 2008

psydude posted:

Honestly the thing that scares me now is how quickly and horribly NATO would destroy any and all conventional Russian forces. Which means Russia would have to fall back on their nukes out of sheer necessity.

This is adjacent to "I'm scared Russia will use its nukes if we don't let them seize European countries" and since that's not compatible with any kind of international order I think we've found ourselves in a situation where we're going to have to come up with a real solution after deferring for so many decades. Calling their bluff may work this time (it still may not) but it won't work when they're fully backed into a corner.

Tiny Timbs fucked around with this message at 23:08 on Apr 20, 2022

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

psydude posted:

Honestly the thing that scares me now is how quickly and horribly NATO would destroy any and all conventional Russian forces. Which means Russia would have to fall back on their nukes out of sheer necessity.

I've seen a bit of this going around and I don't think that really follows. Maybe if NATO was actually invading Russia, sure, but there's zero percent chance that will actually happen. Conversely, in the event of Russian invading a neighbor, well what would they nuke and to what end? There's so many cogs in the ways that the US (and only many more once you bring in NATO) fights a war, most of which have redundancies built in, that there's not much to accomplish with limited use of nuclear weapons.

More significantly: if Russia is at the point where they feel utterly, totally outclassed conventionally to the point where they're conventionally completely ineffective against the US or NATO, I don't think the thinking really becomes 'ah so we should initiate a nuclear exchange, which we will totally win!'

Also the current situation in Ukraine is close enough to this hypothetical scenario that I think the Russian response is revealing.
Ukraine is currently shredding the Russian military alive, albeit certainly more slowly than the combined might of NATO would, and still Russia's messaging is going more into pretending it isn't happening than agitating for further escalation, to say nothing of using nukes. The sinking of the moskva did lead to more calls to escalate, though it is very up in the air whether they actually have the ability to conduct a new offensive and even that didn't lead to any rumblings about using nukes.

Godholio
Aug 28, 2002

Does a bear split in the woods near Zheleznogorsk?

zoux posted:

They ain’t gonna do poo poo, they are stomping around and having a tantrum. If they think NATO stores are going to be exhausted, they should take a look in their own depots.

I'd like to think NATO learned a lesson from its operations in Libya. It seems that way, but I dont know.

Tiny Timbs
Sep 6, 2008

Herstory Begins Now posted:

More significantly: if Russia is at the point where they feel utterly, totally outclassed conventionally to the point where they're conventionally completely ineffective against the US or NATO, I don't think the thinking really becomes 'ah so we should initiate a nuclear exchange, which we will totally win!'

I know Russians have floated the idea that not being able to retake Ukraine poses an "existential threat to the existence of the Russian state" but I really don't see it. A Russia that doesn't agitate against its neighbors is a Russia the rest of the world would be happy to have productive relations with. The problem is that may not matter if enough of their chain of command is crazy enough to see failure in Ukraine or in some future assault on a NATO country that way but I suppose that's nothing new.

TheWeedNumber
Apr 20, 2020

by sebmojo
Sup, I’ve been in rehab this past month and cannot possibly get caught up with the thread. Can someone please help a brother out by giving me the skinny on what’s going on with the war? I’ll read back a couple of pages but that’s the most I can manage. Appreciate y’all.

TheWeedNumber
Apr 20, 2020

by sebmojo
The general vibe I’m getting is the Ukrainians are getting more help and are still kicking rear end.

Nick Soapdish
Apr 27, 2008


TheWeedNumber posted:

Sup, I’ve been in rehab this past month and cannot possibly get caught up with the thread. Can someone please help a brother out by giving me the skinny on what’s going on with the war? I’ll read back a couple of pages but that’s the most I can manage. Appreciate y’all.


I don't have the time to give the specifics that someone undoubtedly but, yes Ukraine is fighting very well against Russia with lots of NATO/Western arms supporting.

Also wanted to say congrats on getting through rehab, I hope you were able to get what you needed out of it or at least it was another step forward.

Soul Dentist
Mar 17, 2009
Big news is that Ukraine used two Neptune missiles and a drone to sink the Moskva (née Slava), the flagship of the Russian Black Sea fleet. Extreme loss of life and Russia is having a conniption trying to both claim it was an "ammunitions mishap" and also use it as casus belli

Radical 90s Wizard
Aug 5, 2008

~SS-18 burning bright,
Bathe me in your cleansing light~
Congrats on the rehab my dude

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TheWeedNumber
Apr 20, 2020

by sebmojo

Soul Dentist posted:

Big news is that Ukraine used two Neptune missiles and a drone to sink the Moskva (née Slava), the flagship of the Russian Black Sea fleet. Extreme loss of life and Russia is having a conniption trying to both claim it was an "ammunitions mishap" and also use it as casus belli

That’s hot. Also thank you for the well wishes friends.

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