|
In Russian Chechnya, you steal tractor!
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2022 05:51
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 25, 2024 01:59 |
|
|
Just another aspect of the Mafia state at work.
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2022 05:52
|
|
|
Charlz Guybon posted:No idea if this guy is credible, but if so LMAO. I don't want this to die on the last page. Also, while I was thinking of physical sabotage when I wrote that, since Ukraine has many native Russian speakers that could infiltrate across the border. However, one of the commentators posted the idea of a Stuxnet like cyber attack, which also seems plausible. In the aftermath of such a devastating fire, how much evidence of such a hack would there be? Could the Russians trace it back to Ukraine or the CIA? Charlz Guybon fucked around with this message at 06:10 on Apr 23, 2022 |
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2022 05:59
|
|
|
Charlz Guybon posted:Also, while I was thinking of physical sabotage when I wrote that, since Ukraine as many native Russian speakers that could infiltrate across the border. However, one of the commentators posted the idea of a Stuxnet like cyber attack, which also seems plausible. In the aftermath of such a devastating fire, how much evidence of such a hack would there be? Could the Russians trace it back to Ukraine or the CIA? Scouring Russian media (although you never what's true) says one of the plant production buildings burned down as a result (out of several). I can't say how that affects overall output, although it seems it won't affect 100% of its output? Unless the affected building is more significant than others. Seems like it's a HUGE plant with a lot of buildings. The current official line is an electrical fire igniting chemicals during production. They even made a critically injured woman testify that it was electricity while she is still in the ER. I don't doubt the analyst's opinions saying losing the whole plant would be a huge deal, however, I'm not sure if there's a confirmation of the whole plant not being able to resume at all anytime soon. Rad Russian fucked around with this message at 06:13 on Apr 23, 2022 |
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2022 06:07
|
|
|
Rad Russian posted:Scouring Russian media (although you never what's true) says one of the plant production buildings burned down as a result (out of several). I can't say how that affects overall output, although it seems it won't affect 100% of its output? Unless the affected building is more significant than others. Seems like it's a HUGE plant with a lot of buildings. The current official line is an electrical fire igniting chemicals during production. They even made a critically injured woman testify that it was electricity while she is still in the hospital. Okay. I guess it depends on what that particular building made then. Did the reports you read say?
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2022 06:11
|
|
|
I hope it is sabotage and Russian partisans are about to radicalize the moderate Russian proletariat.
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2022 06:15
|
|
|
Charlz Guybon posted:Okay. I guess it depends on what that particular building made then. Did the reports you read say? They say the plant's "newest" production building was the one on fire. Probably significant, however unclear exactly how without that plant's engineers or director saying something. Any follow-up information assessing any real impact is missing from the media, which is common in Russia if it could make the gov't look bad. Some stuff on social media reported by nearby town residents about being flooded with a cloud of chemical smoke and people feeling sick. Pretty sure local authorities will try to hide any potential follow-ups on this and there are police checkpoints now to go into those residential areas. Doesn't really mean anything by itself as they would cover up their own fuckups/lack of inspections/lack of safety the same way. Rad Russian fucked around with this message at 06:24 on Apr 23, 2022 |
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2022 06:17
|
|
|
They have literally accelerated the further decline of the Russian state. I hope to loving Christ that they didn't just guarantee a nuclear terrorist attack sometime in the future by setting the third Russian crisis as inevitable.
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2022 06:49
|
|
|
Charlz Guybon posted:I don't want this to die on the last page. There are hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian citizens (maybe even millions) that work in Russia. I imagine they didn't care much about the conflict, but it's plausible someone could start getting info about friends and relatives getting killed or wounded, tales of rapes and pillage, see pictures of familiar sites bombed out and snap.
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2022 07:15
|
|
|
stranger danger posted:I'm not by any means an expert in German politics but the Greens sinking the current coalition in favor of one under the CDU sounds like pure insanity and/or some very wishful thinking by CDU supporters. Going back to a CDU chancellery (under Merz?!) is some wild insano poo poo. You'd have to be absolutely hosed in the head to even suggest that, and utterly ignorant of their stance on Russia. (A hint: The past 16 years) Also, the entire Green voter base would revolt and desert.
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2022 07:35
|
|
|
Putin is gripping that table because he's drunk as poo poo, and it helps keep you steady.
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2022 08:23
|
|
Antigravitas posted:Going back to a CDU chancellery (under Merz?!) is some wild insano poo poo. You'd have to be absolutely hosed in the head to even suggest that, and utterly ignorant of their stance on Russia. (A hint: The past 16 years) You are right, for the Green base their domestic agenda too is more important than doing everything they can to save Ukraine, that's why their leaders, like Baerbock, talk tough but still stay in the government with the SPD instead of doing everything they can to support Ukraine. The Greens are enabling the SPD just as much today as the Union did in the last government, with the difference that the Union got smarter over the last 6 month.
|
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2022 08:35
|
|
|
The Union didn’t get smarter they’re just in opposition which allows them to say stuff they don’t actually mean.
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2022 08:45
|
|
|
Yes, CDU and CSU, the two parties famous for willing to sacrifice German industry/economy for a greater good. I can totally see it.
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2022 08:55
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1517774613266243585?s=20&t=NjZ6OWbR13zlIk2w6UB6IQ
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2022 09:03
|
|
|
Mr Luxury Yacht posted:Somewhat significant since Canada only has something like 30 M777s total and 60 or so howitzers for the entire army outside of old WW2 pieces for training and avalanche duty so even if they sent like, 12, that would be 25% of the Canadian Army's entire artillery capability lol. Then again Canada doesn't have a long land border with Russia. The only purpose for a strong land army would be to burn Washington DC again, and NATO operations.
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2022 09:12
|
|
|
Concerned Citizen posted:
catfry posted:
I was way off on this by the way, if anyone still cares about the 42 villages taken on thursday. On average there is closer to one "place with a name” every 10 square km in Ukraine. The original point still stands though, here’s a silly illustration: The length of the current frontline total on the order of 1000 km. If we imagine that it moves sufficiently along its entire length to capture 420 sq km, it would need to move about 420 m. Assuming a perfectly uniform Ukraine with all villages placed in the center of their respective squares, the frontline only needs to move half that, 210 m, a less funny number. In other matters, the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), a liberal economic think tank this month published a paper outlining some ideas for how to reconstruct Ukraine, post war. It is the first time I have seen any proposals about how to go about it and estimates of what it would cost. They make some assumptions (p4) about what Ukraine will look like, like still functioning state institutions and that Western Ukraine escapes relatively unscathed, but with huge debt, and go from there. Some highlights: - Ukraine will likely look more like Europe post ww2, than Iraq or Afghanistan post their respective wars. - Ukraine should be put on the path to EU membership, a stand alone EU-authorized agency with significant autonomy should be established that coordinates and manages aid. - There is a critical need to expand export capacity towards the EU via railways and highways. Adopting EU rail gauges would help. - Ukraine has a surplus of electricity production, but energy inefficiency is high. - It goes into some detail about how to design the institutional framework, and the fiscal and monetary policies the Ukrainian state should follow, bog standard liberal market economy stuff. - Comparisons to other aid programmes, like the Marshall Plan, the East German integration effort, and Irag and Afghanistan programmes and mistakes. Unsurprisingly it should look more like The Marshall Plan! More grants than loans. - The cost of reconstruction(p27), various methodologies are shown, trying to quantify what’s needed to restore the economy to a pre-war stage. Bear in mind this report was released on April 6, and it points out that these losses increase for every new day of war, but at time of release: Between 200 and 500 Billion EUR. - The faster structured aid can start, the cheaper reconstruction will be in the long run. https://cepr.org/sites/default/files/news/BlueprintReconstructionUkraine.pdf catfry fucked around with this message at 09:48 on Apr 23, 2022 |
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2022 09:46
|
|
|
⚡ BREAKING ⚡ Missing Moskva crew has been contacted, all is well Russian salvage ship Kommuna has made contact with missing crewmen of missile cruiser Moskva that was successfully defloated two weeks ago to put out a fire that had started in the ship's ammunition magazine. Most of the crew were safely evacuated while 100 crewmen were left onboard to look after the ship's vital functions. Kommuna's rescue divers made contact with the missing crew by tapping morse codes on the hull. According to the crew they are perfectly well and in good mood. They have plenty of supplies and a full library of patriotic films on VHS, and the ship's technicians have repaired the sonar and made modifications to the torpedo launchers so that Moskva can act as a stationary submarine. "Everything is good", says the message from these underwater heroes. "We have successfully liberated 0.96 acres of Black Sea floor and will guard it against fascist counter-attacks to the last man."
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2022 10:23
|
|
|
catfry posted:I was way off on this by the way, if anyone still cares about the 42 villages taken on thursday. Given the lack of movement on the maps or even of any specific reports in the aftermath of this announcement, I think the most likely explanation is that these were villages that were bypassed during the advance and are being mopped up behind the front.
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2022 10:30
|
|
|
Taking this entire week there has been some encroachment around Severodonetsk, Kreminna and Borova marked on liveuamap. I guess this is the area. As I have argued all along, liveuamap can still be relied on fairly well, there could very well hide 42 small settlements in just these areas. (liveuamap saves historical data, so it's easy to check developments, just press the 'time' icon)
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2022 10:56
|
|
|
The real question is how much of Russia's available forces are they committing to these offensives. If they're pretty much fully committed and making fuckall progress then they would appear to be hosed. I don't know if anyone credible has attempted to answer this though, they've all just said 'major offensives' without giving any context to the overall state of Russia's forces. I had a thought earlier today too - a possible reason for not declaring a 'war' could be that wars are either won or lost. Once they make it a war then they absolutely have to win, and if they aren't 100% confident of being able to do that then maybe they're judging it better off remaining as a 'special operation'. I guess the other way to look at it is the main advantage of a declared war is the ability to mobilise conscripts, but maybe they've decided that throwing those conscripts into the fighting isn't going to change the outcome because they're likely to be such lovely fighters. 
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2022 11:05
|
|
|
Dapper_Swindler posted:i think alot of it is cold war fears in the generations that lived when the soviets were still a super power and they could write its failed soviet afgan war and then implosion as a fluke. because then russia won/"won" a bunch of smaller wars. Now its clear to most people who were born during or after the fall of the USSR that this is loving stupid belief and that putin isnt some cunning tsar with some giant imperial guard and jets to block out the sun. he is an old middle manager spook who was good at being the ultimate manager sociopath and now he loving over gambled and shits hosed for his country. yeah alot of its greed or indifference for sholtz but i think he truly believes that russia will just sweep Europe like loving COD MW3. personally, the utter incompetence of the russian military is the strangest thing about this war. i'd come from a perspective of reading afghan war histories (imo these are more demonstrative of political incompetence in the lead-up--the USSR was way too happy to support awful, murderous afghan powermongers so long as they slapped a "communist!" label on themselves) and zinky boys thinking "well, sure, of course their troops have poo poo equipment and discipline, it's the late soviet union, everything was a mess" and then the military chapters of putin's russia and thinking "well, sure, of course the army is free conscript slave labor for officers and graft machine, and of course the navy is basically running the fleet on fumes, it's the aftermath of the yeltsin era". 2010s russia, or at least moscow, felt like a loving boomtown--you'd return after a mere 3 years or so and see massive infrastructure improvements and clearing away of any unfortunate traces of the 90s (thanks sobyanin  ).i guess i should be less surprised than i was that none of that went into the military, or at least not actually into the military (why on earth would the graft machine have stopped?). maybe i should have gotten more of a clue when the power was out downtown at noon in volgograd (apparently not an uncommon occurrence) when i visited in 2019, but i live in northern california so this is something i consider normal (okay, not normal for downtown, but still)
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2022 11:15
|
|
|
One thing I'm wondering - now that the stories of Bucha are out, how are civilians within the Russian line of advance and occupied areas reacting? Many are doubtless evacuating sooner rather than later but for those with no choice I could see there being more active hostility (read: partisan activity) as the civilians realize they're not going to be spared even if they sit still and remain quiet. Which could get...real messy for everyone involved, though it was always going to be messy for the civilians.
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2022 11:25
|
|
|
As much as we are knocking German policy, a reminder that UK policy could easily have been very different: https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1517787770021896193 https://morningstaronline.co.uk/article/f/now-let-us-talk-peace
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2022 11:53
|
|
|
Alchenar posted:As much as we are knocking German policy, a reminder that UK policy could easily have been very different: poo poo like this is why we've had 12 years of tory government and there's no end in sight. Give people a choice between a scumbag and a coward most of them will vote for the scumbag every time.
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2022 12:27
|
|
|
gay picnic defence posted:The real question is how much of Russia's available forces are they committing to these offensives. If they're pretty much fully committed and making fuckall progress then they would appear to be hosed. I don't know if anyone credible has attempted to answer this though, they've all just said 'major offensives' without giving any context to the overall state of Russia's forces. Real life isn't a game where they can just drag a slider to round up a million people, turn them into soldiers, and send them off to die. They need a lot of weapons and ammunition to arm them. They all need transportation. They need a constant stream of food, water, and other miscellaneous supplies. They need a corps of loyal officers and troops to make sure, at the very least, that the horde of involuntary soldiers aren't going to take a swing at overthrowing their own government. Even with that they also need to be, on the whole, to be more motivated to fight the enemy than their own government. Every untrained conscript requires mostly the same logistics train as a fully trained professional soldier and poo poo can go very bad very fast for a government if they just hand everyone guns and throw them into a meatgrinder. At the point where the existing troops are having chronic supply shortages and they're scrounging for functional tank hulks and civilian buses to equip reinforcements with - yeah, they're not in a position to magic up a bunch of new soldiers. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 12:40 on Apr 23, 2022 |
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2022 12:29
|
|
|
Nenonen posted:Then again Canada doesn't have a long land border with Russia. The only purpose for a strong land army would be to burn Washington DC again… Help usb Obi-Canada, you’re our only hope.
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2022 12:32
|
|
|
nvm
Zedsdeadbaby fucked around with this message at 12:37 on Apr 23, 2022 |
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2022 12:33
|
|
|
Alchenar posted:As much as we are knocking German policy, a reminder that UK policy could easily have been very different: This would be a lot more convincing if it addressed the situation in Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk, the removal of Ukrainians to Russia, masses of war crimes, and Ukraine's long term security concerns.
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2022 12:36
|
|
|
Corbyn has a point about the disparity between treatment of Ukranian refugees and other refugees, but holy hell I can't fathom the knee-trembling at arming Ukraine in the face of the obvious genocide they'll endure should they lose this war.Nenonen posted:Then again Canada doesn't have a long land border with Russia. The only purpose for a strong land army would be to burn Washington DC again, and NATO operations. We like to take credit for this one but alas it was British troops who sailed over from the UK, landed in DC, and did the dirty. I think they picked up some colonial troops from the Caribbean. The Leeward Islands have a better claim to burning the White House than we do.
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2022 12:50
|
|
|
Lassitude posted:Corbyn has a point about the disparity between treatment of Ukranian refugees and other refugees, but holy hell I can't fathom the knee-trembling at arming Ukraine in the face of the obvious genocide they'll endure should they lose this war. Are they actually letting Ukrainian refugees in now?
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2022 12:59
|
|
|
Lassitude posted:Corbyn has a point about the disparity between treatment of Ukranian refugees and other refugees, but holy hell I can't fathom the knee-trembling at arming Ukraine in the face of the obvious genocide they'll endure should they lose this war. Eh, he is a consistent and committed pacifist and if it were an option then his suggestion of 'there should be a ceasefire, then Russia should withdraw, then there can be negotiations about arms' would be obviously correct if it were actually an option. He just seems unwilling to acknowledge that Putin has decided to have a war and is not offering a ceasefire or withdrawal, and doesn't seem able to even attempt a suggestion at how to deal with that problem.
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2022 13:01
|
|
|
EscapeHere posted:Does the German parliament work similar to Westminster systems where a party can request a vote of no confidence and bring down the government? i.e. If the Greens decide they're sick of Sholz's Ukraine policy, what kind of power do they have? Can they just call a vote of no confidence and then for a new government with the CDU, or does it require a new election? My limited understanding is that they can torpedo the current government, but there has to be an “now what” alternative prepared beforehand. Not sure what’s the legal kung-fu required to just shuffle Scholz around - I imagine it would take an internal party vote. Charlz Guybon posted:I don't want this to die on the last page. As someone said before, this could simply be poo poo falling apart due to grift construction going from 50% maximum capacity to 150% maximum capacity production rate. alex314 posted:There are hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian citizens (maybe even millions) that work in Russia. I imagine they didn't care much about the conflict, but it's plausible someone could start getting info about friends and relatives getting killed or wounded, tales of rapes and pillage, see pictures of familiar sites bombed out and snap. 5-6 millions iirc.
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2022 13:07
|
|
|
Yeah to avoid deadlock the German parliament can't just vote out the old chancellor, the vote has to include a new chancellor who then, if the vote goes his way, presumably has a majority and can take over governing.
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2022 13:23
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/rprose/status/1517801095061544960
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2022 13:39
|
|
cinci zoo sniper posted:My limited understanding is that they can torpedo the current government, but there has to be an “now what” alternative prepared beforehand. Not sure what’s the legal kung-fu required to just shuffle Scholz around - I imagine it would take an internal party vote. There would be no legal kung-fu required to shuffle Scholz out if the majority of the SPD group in the Bundestag wants to do that, but they are supporting his Russiophile course of action so little chance of that happening. If the Greens and FDP valued standing up to Putin high enough, they could form a government with the Union, but standing up to Putin is not important enough for them to rock the boat. They might even be happy that Scholz let's them talk tough while not doing anything, as this allows them to have their cake and eat it from a cynical electoral point of view.
|
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2022 13:47
|
|
|
mobby_6kl posted:Are they actually letting Ukrainian refugees in now? Plenty of people in the UK are volunteering to house them but reportedly the vetting process for the volunteers is an Orwellian nightmare and the visa system is apparently just as bad. Contacting the official organisations involved to progress anything is also a herculean task. People are willing but the current UK governments main selling point to it's supporters is xenophobia and scapegoating all immigrants (can't blame the EU anymore now we've left) so they can't really be seen to help and every positive refugee story starts the right wailing about boat people and being full up. Johnson will drop his military support for Ukraine the instant his advisers say it'll not benefit him directly at home.
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2022 13:55
|
|
|
It's a short article, but it may give some perspective to "why don't the Ukrainians simply push the Russians out?" https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/23/motivated-but-outgunned-ukrainian-soldiers-discuss-life-on-the-southern-front
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2022 14:00
|
|
|
Morningwoodpecker posted:Plenty of people in the UK are volunteering to house them but reportedly the vetting process for the volunteers is an Orwellian nightmare and the visa system is apparently just as bad. Contacting the official organisations involved to progress anything is also a herculean task. Apparently this is the form for the visa process:    Be annoying if you got to step 63 and your phone battery died.
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2022 14:05
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 25, 2024 01:59 |
|
|
madeintaipei posted:Wrong Germans. Hohenzollerns. My great-grandfather was a bastard of Wilhelm II's brother, I'll take this responsibility.
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2022 14:13
|
|
