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Mola Yam posted:
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Apr 23, 2022 17:06
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i am harry posted:
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Apr 23, 2022 17:10
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Lastgirl posted:https://twitter.com/NeilNasty7/status/1517352667139522561?s=20&t=IvnFXQDBrKBiZ9ru94kgHg big uncle from Nintendo vibes
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Apr 23, 2022 17:14
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I will stop trying to time the market and instead gobble up whatever I am able. just need to buy asap so that I can stay in the community I love.
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Apr 23, 2022 17:23
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a primate posted:big uncle from Nintendo vibes it's true https://twitter.com/NeilNasty7/status/1517726183865163776?s=19
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Apr 23, 2022 17:32
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oh poo poo
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Apr 23, 2022 17:36
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a primate posted:big uncle from Nintendo vibes a primate posted:oh poo poo
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Apr 23, 2022 17:43
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a primate posted:oh poo poo Yeah lol I'm in the industry and when I saw that I knew it was probably true. *chuckles* I'm in danger
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Apr 23, 2022 18:06
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Mola Yam posted:
Do you have the source for this? It's interesting
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Apr 23, 2022 18:06
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what's that mean? that less mortgages are going to be processed because the market's about to crash and everyone's houses are about to lose a bunch of value, and then subsequently get bought by extremely rich people who then jack the prices up to higher than they were before(now)?
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Apr 23, 2022 18:07
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Lacrosse posted:Yeah lol I'm in the industry and when I saw that I knew it was probably true. are we in for 2008 v2 or something different?
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Apr 23, 2022 18:15
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empty whippet box posted:what's that mean? that less mortgages are going to be processed because the market's about to crash and everyone's houses are about to lose a bunch of value, and then subsequently get bought by extremely rich people who then jack the prices up to higher than they were before(now)? no, but nobody is gonna re-finance their mortgage to a lower rate since lower rates arent available. also less loans will be issued going forward bc they're less good of a deal i dont think it portends anything significant beyond 'more rate increases = less demand for loans'
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Apr 23, 2022 18:17
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a primate posted:are we in for 2008 v2 or something different? I'm just a computer toucher so I don't have much insider information other than banks are seeing 'headwinds' over the next 6 months. That's all I know Edit: as in I touch (repair) the computers of the people who do work in the industry. I haven't had the chance to gossip with anyone lately because most of the people in my office are still remote Lacrosse has issued a correction as of 18:28 on Apr 23, 2022 |
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Apr 23, 2022 18:26
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empty whippet box posted:what's that mean? that less mortgages are going to be processed because the market's about to crash and everyone's houses are about to lose a bunch of value, and then subsequently get bought by extremely rich people who then jack the prices up to higher than they were before(now)? my interpretation is that with how much institutional money has flooded into the market in earnest (i.e., REIT's are now playing the game instead of the mere financialization of individual ownership via MBS's) that poor people who have to borrow money to own a house will have a harder time doing so. That means they'll have an even harder time borrowing the excessive amount necessary to compete with above-asking cash offers from institutional investors. The market will cool a little bit but it won't crash because (1) those who already own are locked in at low rates and (2) institutions are already just renting out what they bought anyways and borrowed at even lower rates than individual homeowners ever had access to to begin with. Basically those who had a balance sheet to begin with won out. Those of us trying to build a balance sheet are now further priced out.
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Apr 23, 2022 18:28
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Apr 23, 2022 18:30
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I did take some notes from the last employee meeting: - 'significant headwinds', seeing a slowdown of mortgage originations already - the aggressive jacking up of mortgage rates is loving up the banks' tap of endless free money - Refinance and HELOC loans are down - housing builds are getting stalled out due to a lack of labor as well as supplies, specifically garage doors which have 6+ month lead times - commercial real estate had a slow start to the year but they expect it to get better with companies forcing return to office plans Advice is "don't panic" 
Lacrosse has issued a correction as of 18:37 on Apr 23, 2022 |
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Apr 23, 2022 18:34
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looking for a new apartment and i cant afford any of these places lol
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Apr 23, 2022 18:39
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vyelkin posted:looking for a new apartment and i cant afford any of these places lol same I gotta move in two weeks. lol. 
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Apr 23, 2022 18:40
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Did you guys try voting yourself into a cheaper apartment?
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Apr 23, 2022 18:50
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If I cut the tree down in my backyard I could probably put in an ADU that barely meets living standards, and charge $1500 a month. I too wish to be a piece of poo poo landlord
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Apr 23, 2022 18:56
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Nice and hot piss posted:If I cut the tree down in my backyard I could probably put in an ADU that barely meets living standards, and charge $1500 a month. it's the new way society works. full commodification of every last fragment of our lives. you can burn that tree to generate power to mine for bitcoin.
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Apr 23, 2022 19:32
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If houses go way down in value due to less demand because mortgage rates go up, there'll still be affordability problems b/c now you're looking at 7, 8, 9% interest rates to buy even less house (in terms of sq ft) than you could when rates were at ~2.5% at the bottom. Like, clearly there was an appetite (either from yuppie pmc types or blackrocks) for mortgages even at these crazy price points, you can probably predict the "bottom" for housing prices by just take the average monthly all-in price at the peak (like 1600/mo at 2.5-3%) and plug in 7% or whatever to find what the new median is. Am I off-base here? This seems to make sense in my mind anyway, I wouldn't expect you to magically be able to lock in a 30-year at like 4 or 500/mo if the market crashes and even if you could at that price it means blackrock gets 4 houses for the price of one now. Justin Tyme has issued a correction as of 19:50 on Apr 23, 2022 |
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Apr 23, 2022 19:48
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Additional dwelling unit, you say? How about a remodeled garage? https://www.wkrn.com/special-report...t-1000-a-month/ Rents in Nashville are loving rough right now. Tennessee is a $7.25/hr minimum wage state too. quote:According to Rent.com, the average rent for apartments in Nashville, TN, is between $1,585 and $2,658 in 2022. For a studio apartment in Nashville, the average rent is $1,860. For a one-bedroom, the average rent is $1,991, and for a 2-bedroom is $2,658. And a picture:  It's off market now. CRUSTY MINGE has issued a correction as of 19:52 on Apr 23, 2022 |
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Apr 23, 2022 19:49
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if interest rates get to a point where mortgages are 7% and higher, it’s not just about housing and wide swathes of the economy that rely on the money printer are going to implode the current bump in mortgage rates is just from the Fed prepping markets for a 0.5% interest rate hike in July
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Apr 23, 2022 20:05
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Lacrosse posted:- commercial real estate had a slow start to the year but they expect it to get better with companies forcing return to office plans What's the plan for when employees tell them to gently caress off and quit instead? Or are they still stubbornly assuming that labor is an infinite pool to draw from?
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Apr 23, 2022 20:33
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Justin Tyme posted:If houses go way down in value due to less demand because mortgage rates go up, there'll still be affordability problems b/c now you're looking at 7, 8, 9% interest rates to buy even less house (in terms of sq ft) than you could when rates were at ~2.5% at the bottom. this makes sense to me, too. similar to car buying, most people probably look at it as "we can afford $X per month". when rates are consistent, you can accurately estimate a purchase price of $Y will result in $X per month. with rates increasing at an unknown rate, unless you're ready to buy today, you might want to back off for a bit because you suddenly can't gauge what your payments will be based on the purchase price alone
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Apr 23, 2022 20:33
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HOMES HOMES HOMES
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Apr 23, 2022 20:35
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19 o'clock posted:it's the new way society works. full commodification of every last fragment of our lives. foreverially commodified and loving it
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Apr 23, 2022 20:40
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empty whippet box posted:Did you guys try voting yourself into a cheaper apartment? actually yeah i voted for rent control right after i moved into a super cheap shithole apartment. it passed lol
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Apr 23, 2022 21:02
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shrike82 posted:if interest rates get to a point where mortgages are 7% and higher, it’s not just about housing and wide swathes of the economy that rely on the money printer are going to implode Weren't 30-year fixed rates like 15%+ in the 80s/90s?
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Apr 23, 2022 21:09
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CRUSTY MINGE posted:Additional dwelling unit, you say? I'm certain I could build that with a bunch of plywood and make it livable. Rent 1800 a month, you pay all utilities except trash (I'm not a monster) must make 3x monthly rent, 800+ credit score, will need a LOR from congressman, also first, last months rent due and 3600 security deposit
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Apr 23, 2022 21:10
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Most estimates I've seen say 6% will be the top.
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Apr 23, 2022 21:21
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Mr Hootington posted:Most estimates I've seen say 6% will be the top. idk about that 
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Apr 23, 2022 21:44
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i want shelter
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Apr 23, 2022 22:04
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Ornery and Hornery posted:i want shelter ok but do you have a four-figure security deposit, a credit score above 800, and references from your last three landlords?
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Apr 23, 2022 22:05
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Justin Tyme posted:Weren't 30-year fixed rates like 15%+ in the 80s/90s? my dad has refinanced that house a dozen times since then, and the current monthly payment is less in absolute dollars (i.e. unadjusted for inflation) than it was in '83 ~just boomer things~
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Apr 23, 2022 22:24
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yes and new homes built when the interest rate was 15-20% were 80k while median household income was around 24k. again, median household income right now is around 32k while houses cost 4-10 times what they used to. it is an insane situation, there's no other way to describe it.
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Apr 23, 2022 22:47
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median US household is 67 K.
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Apr 23, 2022 22:49
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Bar Ran Dun posted:median US household is 67 K. oops.my bad
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Apr 23, 2022 22:53
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Ornery and Hornery posted:i want shelter buy less food
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Apr 23, 2022 22:56
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