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jeeves posted:What’s the over/under on Trump being immediately unbanned? Bears https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Y1RsKKjDLU
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Apr 25, 2022 21:02
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jeeves posted:What’s the over/under on Trump being immediately unbanned? Immediately? Extremely unlikely. Elon already said Trump will not be unbanned. I don't trust him to not reverse course but that's gotta be good for at least a day, probably a week.
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Apr 25, 2022 21:04
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tumblr hype man posted:Twitter is taking on $13 billion in debt. Elon is taking $12.5 billion in a margin loan against his Tesla shares. He’s bringing $21 billion in cash equity. That equity will likely be syndicated with others but it’s relatively low leverage on the operating company as things go. His margin loan also has a 20% LTV so he’s pledging $60 billion in Tesla shares for that. I really love how his idiot supporters are fine with letting him expose all his companies to the risk of each of his companies.
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Apr 25, 2022 21:09
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Some bank is going to own half the internet in 50 years.
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Apr 25, 2022 21:10
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I have no idea what stocks to play because of it, but watching Netflix and Twitter self-immolate sure is something.
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Apr 25, 2022 21:41
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If netflix fires some executives and does one of those weird "heartfelt" apologies or whatever like Domino's pizza did, I'd probably buy in.
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Apr 25, 2022 21:49
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The Fattest PI posted:If netflix fires some executives and does one of those weird "heartfelt" apologies or whatever like Domino's pizza did, I'd probably buy in. Netflix board members looking at a big white board as a consultant repeatedly circles the phrase "our CEO needs to get more racist"
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Apr 25, 2022 21:52
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The Fattest PI posted:If netflix fires some executives and does one of those weird "heartfelt" apologies or whatever like Domino's pizza did, I'd probably buy in. Dumps a barrel of cash on the table to get David Fincher to finish Mindhunter would certainly help... seen the new Marmaduke cartoon on Netflix? Oh, yeah it'll be fine... Bought another 51 shares of Magnachip (MX) @$14.89. Fingers crossed, maybe Musk will buy Vinco Ventures next to widen his empire!
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Apr 26, 2022 00:51
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pmchem posted:interesting little tool here for market valuation: This is a good post, thank you.
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Apr 26, 2022 01:12
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The Anime Liker posted:Netflix board members looking at a big white board as a consultant repeatedly circles the phrase "our CEO needs to get more racist" No no they want the dominoes approach not the Papa John's approach
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Apr 26, 2022 01:17
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Gaius Marius posted:No no they want the dominoes approach not the Papa John's approach LOL how the hell did I space out and think Papa John was the CEO of Dominos
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Apr 26, 2022 01:28
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lol, twitter is agreeing to a buyout at a 27% discount from the 52-week high. i don't have the analytical chops of some in this thread, but that doesn't seem to signal much faith in the future of the company
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Apr 26, 2022 06:15
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:lol, twitter is agreeing to a buyout at a 27% discount from the 52-week high. i don't have the analytical chops of some in this thread, but that doesn't seem to signal much faith in the future of the company Look at a 10y chart. If they would have rejected the offer and also have a bad earnings report on the 28th the stock would easily have dropped below 30 and there would have been a much greater than 0% chance that the board would have been sued by shareholders for rejecting the offer. Elon's cockthirsty army pumped the stock 20% just on the offering I'm sure that would weigh against the board in litigation, as well. They were in a position where they had to consider the benefit of selling as if the stock were trading at the pre-offer price of ~$40 vs the risk of not selling as if the stock were trading at the post-offer high of ~$54. They got squeezed between a techbro and a balance sheet. Girbot fucked around with this message at 11:57 on Apr 26, 2022 |
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Apr 26, 2022 11:48
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:lol, twitter is agreeing to a buyout at a 27% discount from the 52-week high. i don't have the analytical chops of some in this thread, but that doesn't seem to signal much faith in the future of the company Why does this matter? It will be private, there will be no share price. How does the old owner's faith in the future matter? Especially when the buyer isn't buying it to turn a profit?
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Apr 26, 2022 13:18
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Looks like a few more years of TLH locked in.
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Apr 26, 2022 16:15
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LCID below 18 y'all... 
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Apr 26, 2022 16:23
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I demand answers Musk! Is he trying to fund his way back to his home planet?
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Apr 26, 2022 16:37
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Twitter is trading at $50.xx as I write this. That's %4ish discount from the offer price. Is that the market being skeptical that the deal will actually go through?
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Apr 26, 2022 16:47
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doingitwrong posted:Twitter is trading at $50.xx as I write this. That's %4ish discount from the offer price. Is that the market being skeptical that the deal will actually go through? Let's say it takes 9 months to happen, can you make 4% in something else in 9 months?
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Apr 26, 2022 16:51
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doingitwrong posted:Twitter is trading at $50.xx as I write this. That's %4ish discount from the offer price. Is that the market being skeptical that the deal will actually go through? It's normal for there to be a deal spread until it actually closes. Usually for this sort of thing, where the financing doesn't seem to be an issue and there's no antitrust concerns, you'd expect that gap to be tighter. But maybe when you're dealing with someone as mercurial at Musk 8% isn't too unreasonable. It'd be a quite nice annualized return if you buy TWTR now and the deal successfully closes by the end of the year.
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Apr 26, 2022 17:00
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pixaal posted:Let's say it takes 9 months to happen, can you make 4% in something else in 9 months? I'm not sure about making 4% or more in 9 months but I'm sure I can lose more than 20% between now and then!
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Apr 26, 2022 17:18
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ARTPUP posted:
Nice timing!
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Apr 26, 2022 17:27
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Hey everybody, I'm pretty much at my mental stop loss for the significant amount of Fun Bucks I have in SPY shares. Should I go ahead and exit now or will I miss the big comeback? I am so sick of being an endless bag holder. Every time I try trading with my fun money this happens and I would have been better off in cash. For other context, 100% of my retirement savings I don't touch and it's all in Target Date funds.
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Apr 26, 2022 20:36
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Inner Light posted:Hey everybody, I'm pretty much at my mental stop loss for the significant amount of Fun Bucks I have in SPY shares. Should I go ahead and exit now or will I miss the big comeback? I don't know what you've been bagholding every other time you lost money but panic selling every time SPY goes 10% below its ATH is certainly another way to lose more than you would have in cash. Why aren't you selling your target date funds which I assume are losing about the same amount of money unless you are a mega-old.
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Apr 26, 2022 20:54
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Arzakon posted:I don't know what you've been bagholding every other time you lost money but panic selling every time SPY goes 10% below its ATH is certainly another way to lose more than you would have in cash. Oh I don't mean panic selling has meant I lost more trading than I would have in cash, I mean participating in active trading AT ALL has made me lose much more than I would have in cash. (with fun money only, not counting the great gains over multi year time periods with tax advantaged accounts I don't touch) I am not a mega old, I am mid career..... why should I sell my target date funds? The way I've been taught is never to touch it as the time horizon is well over 10 years. Fun money is obviously a much shorter time horizon which is why I would seek to sell before an even bigger drop, and buy in again later. That's the thought anyway.
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Apr 26, 2022 21:02
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If more trading equals more money lost then don't do a trade. Is kinda what the other posting was saying.
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Apr 26, 2022 21:05
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I appreciate the advice, but unless I am misunderstanding it completely sidesteps my original question over if folks foresee further heavy SPY losses as likely, in a near term outlook. But it is possible I am asking a stupid question and if so I apologize, i'm still learning.
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Apr 26, 2022 21:14
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further losses could happen, but SPY is the SP500 it's basically what your target date funds are doing. You don't sell your index holdings typically. It may go down more, but it will almost surely be worth more than it is now in 10 years.
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Apr 26, 2022 21:17
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Inner Light posted:I appreciate the advice, but unless I am misunderstanding it completely sidesteps my original question over if folks foresee further heavy SPY losses as likely, in a near term outlook. But it is possible I am asking a stupid question and if so I apologize, i'm still learning. Anyone here (or anywhere) that could accurately predict the future of SPY on the short term scale could be a billionaire in a year. You are asking for something that is either gut feels, just-so story explaining, the foolish reading-the-entrails variety of "technical analysis", or wishful thinking. On the long-term scale, we all think the market will probably go up. Buy & hold. But that's the long-term thread. This thread is the silly gambling thread, where we lose money on meme stonks and have Very Serious Discussions about trying to find some tiny edge somewhere.
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Apr 26, 2022 21:18
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Inner Light posted:I am not a mega old, I am mid career..... why should I sell my target date funds? The way I've been taught is never to touch it as the time horizon is well over 10 years. Fun money is obviously a much shorter time horizon which is why I would seek to sell before an even bigger drop, and buy in again later. That's the thought anyway. You wouldn't. Fun money isn't obviously a shorter time horizon. My 401k and fun money are about the same window. You shouldn't be putting short time window stuff into SPY. Inner Light posted:I appreciate the advice, but unless I am misunderstanding it completely sidesteps my original question over if folks foresee further heavy SPY losses as likely, in a near term outlook. But it is possible I am asking a stupid question and if so I apologize, i'm still learning. If we knew that we'd all be rich off buying puts. If you can tolerate is going down 50% because its really fun money and can let it sit another few years, just ride it out. If you need the money in the next 12 months to buy a house, exit because you never should have bought in.
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Apr 26, 2022 21:20
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Ah thanks these replies are helping me understand better. So, why is it often profitable to bet on movements of stocks, even ones that only move a few percentage points over some days or weeks, but betting on a movement of SPY in the same time period is seen as not a good move? I was under the impression I could be just as successful 'picking' the movement of SPY on the days/weeks timescale as picking individual stocks, is that against the general consensus for some reason I am not getting?quote:If you need the money in the next 12 months to buy a house, exit because you never should have bought in. This is what I am not getting.... what is the reason I should not have bought into SPY with a 12 month timescale vs. picking a meme stock instead? Inner Light fucked around with this message at 21:53 on Apr 26, 2022 |
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Apr 26, 2022 21:51
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Inner Light posted:I appreciate the advice, but unless I am misunderstanding it completely sidesteps my original question over if folks foresee further heavy SPY losses as likely, in a near term outlook. But it is possible I am asking a stupid question and if so I apologize, i'm still learning. Macro-economic analysis is really hard, your average economist isn't rich, and then how that translates into actionable trades is a whole other thing. The system is basically too complex for anyone to know if the SPY will go down or up in the short term. You can do things like analyzing where the business cycle is, and then looking at sector performance during different parts of the business cycle, but nobody ever agrees where we are in the business cycle right now, only in hindsight where we were. Also, there's a literal land war in Europe right now, and it seems to have the potential to drag on for a long time or end suddenly, and a major energy supplier is involved. So what Russia does in Ukraine can shift everything, regardless of what kinds of fundamental economic or stock analysis you do.
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Apr 26, 2022 21:52
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Inner Light posted:This is what I am not getting.... what is the reason I should not have bought into SPY with a 12 month timescale vs. picking a meme stock instead? SPY is gambling on the health of the stock market and meme stocks are gambling on the health of the meme around some trash company. You have less risk throwing money at SPY instead of GOON because it is diversified, but its still betting on an inherently risky thing and while number typically goes up, sometimes number goes down. Take a look at 2025 target funds and see how much are in stocks, Vanguard's is 40% bonds. 12 month timescale is cash/bonds territory. Definitely not stocks, meme or otherwise.
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Apr 26, 2022 22:07
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Inner Light posted:Hey everybody, I'm pretty much at my mental stop loss for the significant amount of Fun Bucks I have in SPY shares. Should I go ahead and exit now or will I miss the big comeback? A few thoughts:
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Apr 26, 2022 22:12
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Inner Light posted:So, why is it often profitable to bet on movements of stocks, even ones that only move a few percentage points over some days or weeks, but betting on a movement of SPY in the same time period is seen as not a good move? I disagree with the premise a little - it is generally profitable to invest in the market as a whole over long time frames (via something like SPY, which is a reasonable proxy for US stocks). But, its certainly often *not* profitable to invest in single stock over short time frames - pick any random page of this thread to see that. People invest in individual stocks usually with the intention that they will do better than the market overall during the time they are holding it. Buying SPY guarantees that isn't possible (but also that you wont do worse than the overall market).
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Apr 26, 2022 22:16
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Agronox posted:[*] I don't think it's wise to distinguish between money and "fun money." Money's fungible. If there's a shot you'd take with "fun money" that you wouldn't take with "real money" then you probably shouldn't do it at all. (Though unlevered SPY doesn't sound too adventurous really.) Part of that can just be language. I do investments and trades with what I call "fun money" but I'm still absolutely trying do to things that I think will make a profit (it's about the money, not just about being "fun"). But it may be unwise to use my entire portfolio on it, because I might be wrong on any individual position (risk aversion). Bankroll size management / Kelly criterion bet sizing / etc.
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Apr 26, 2022 22:26
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Inner Light posted:Ah thanks these replies are helping me understand better. So, why is it often profitable to bet on movements of stocks, even ones that only move a few percentage points over some days or weeks, but betting on a movement of SPY in the same time period is seen as not a good move? I was under the impression I could be just as successful 'picking' the movement of SPY on the days/weeks timescale as picking individual stocks, is that against the general consensus for some reason I am not getting? I like what Agronox said. I often encourage people, here and elsewhere, to have an investment thesis with each position they take. As in, actually write it down. An investment thesis is a statement of theory of why you think this investment will make money. For example: "I think $GOON will pop up in value when the FDA approves the product for medical use in the US. I expect this to occur within the next 18 months." In addition, you should set price targets. For example: "I'll sell regardless if $GOON drops below $1.00 per share. I'll buy more if it drops below $1.50 a share, but only up to a maximum investment of $2k. I'll sell at least half it pops over $4.00 per share, and I'll sell all of it at any price above $5.00 per share." In addition, you should set time horizons. For example: "After 18 months, I'll sell regardless, unless there's been recent news to indicate approval or denial is imminent." The reason to do this, especially as a beginner, is fourfold: 1. Remove your gut feelings, intuition, panic, etc. from your decision-making process 2. Remember why you bought stuff, so you don't retroactively justify and/or punish yourself for a good or bad decision in the future 3. See how your predictions do or don't pan out, and to what degree 4. Be able to critically analyze and deconstruct your investment thesis in the future, so you don't repeat mistakes So given all that: what was your investment thesis for buying and holding SPY for one year? You should be able to articulate a purchase like that. Perhaps it was "I think the market as a whole will go up this year." That's fine, that's a reasonable thing to think. But then, you need to do the rest: why do you think it'll go up? In my example, I didn't just say $GOON was gonna go up, I had an explanation for why. If $GOON popped to $5.00, and I sold it and made lots of money, but it did so without FDA approval, well... that'd be nice for my pocketbook, but it would also mean that my investment thesis was faulty. SPY hasn't gone up the way you predicted. Why not? What was your pre-planned exit point? Why did you decide to bet on SPY, instead of something with more volatility, or more upside? Why was your time horizon 1 year, instead of 5 or 10 or 6 months or two weeks or one hour? Nobody here can really answer all these questions for you, although several have made good educated guesses based on what you've already said. It's not necessary to justify your positions to other people, but you should be able to justify them coherently to yourself. Creating an investment thesis and keeping track of it can help you not only improve your own decisions, but be able to explain them coherently to others, ask more useful questions and get more useful answers. e. just wanted to add, all of this is just starting points. There's so, so much more to learn. The OP is super old but there's still some good resources there to check out. Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 22:38 on Apr 26, 2022 |
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Apr 26, 2022 22:34
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let's play a game, no cheating. Assign the following rows to their S&P 500 sectors (the last column, FY1, is a forward estimate): code:but which row is which?
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Apr 26, 2022 23:07
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pmchem posted:let's play a game, no cheating. utilities materials energy financials communications
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Apr 26, 2022 23:09
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Just curious if anyone has any experience with employee stock options and this type of predicament: I received an additional grant of options at my old job for a strike price of $150. At time of exercise (I exercised all of them), the price was $250. Today, after leaving the company, the price is $120 and I was previously unable to sell due to blackout periods. I've held them for a couple years at this point. I'm not really sure what to do. It seems like the price may continue to fall since this quarter has been pretty brutal to tech but I'm not sure what implications that will have on me. I had tax withheld from my paycheck when I exercised - is that money I lose forever, assuming I sell now? Or would I be better off waiting until the price gets back to $150 (I have faith in the company long term & that it will get there, but it may take a few years)? Any insight would be appreciated, thanks! UncleGuito fucked around with this message at 00:10 on Apr 27, 2022 |
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