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kiimo
Jul 24, 2003

Why am I getting so many mixed messages on Chris Olave?

Some people say he's this ~~amazing~~ route runner and some say he isn't good at all. I know he benefited from Garrett taking the best corners but is he actually good?

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Cavauro
Jan 9, 2008

you're going to take your guy and then whoever the bengals are about to pick, for revenge, and like it. probably would be also your guy. don't know. plus "i don't know who that is you're talking about or care about them." - quote from the chefs. Trying to have a friendly time on here and joke around with eachother. if this wasn't appreciated please let me know

BlindSite
Feb 8, 2009

SKULL.GIF posted:

Where does Mac Jones get drafted if he went in this draft?

My gut feel is around the same place. Willis is probably still seen as the better ceiling and he's battling with Pickett for the pro ready lower ceiling guy.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

🤌🤌🤌

kiimo posted:

Why am I getting so many mixed messages on Chris Olave?

Some people say he's this ~~amazing~~ route runner and some say he isn't good at all. I know he benefited from Garrett taking the best corners but is he actually good?

I'd say he's a pretty bad route runner but it's more visually disgusting than ineffective. He loops into his cuts and beats people on speed rather than fooling them. Whether or not you care about that is whatever, there's guys like Tyler Lockett who've made whole careers not caring that he's selling his route. They flipped Garrett, Olave, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba around constantly (they also have Marvin Harrison's kid). Garrett wasn't exactly clearing out routes for everyone so much as there's four top 50 talents on the field causing havoc. Only reason they even dropped games this year was because their o-line played like poo poo at the worst times. Also best corners and Big 10 don't exactly go hand in hand since the 90's. You got Cam Taylor-Britt and Joey Porter's kid and that's about it when it comes to competition.

I'd still say he's a fine addition to most teams that can buy time to let him develop his route. He's got NFL speed and body control. While he's a body catcher it looks more like he just doesn't have to snatch it most times than not. He was just straight gliding past people in the MSU game. Penn State played him better. Kept him in front and bullied the gently caress out of him and Wilson whenever they could get a hit on them. Still burned them deep for a TD though. Big knock is the same that's probably going to make Wilson drop is that they're both scrawny as gently caress and don't play nearly as physical as DeVonta Smith did. There's too much bullying on outside routes now for Z receivers because everyone is afraid of quick hitting offenses. DeVonta at least could use his stiff arms to spear people off of him to get space. Olave does none of that.

The Puppy Bowl
Jan 31, 2013

A dog, in the house.

*woof*
If you're going to go with the smaller build WR I don't see the value in Olave over Johan Dotson. Dotson appears to be a slightly slower version of Hollywood Brown who is reasonably better at everything to do with being a WR. The A+ version of Hollywood would be a really good addition to KC.

kiimo
Jul 24, 2003

The Chiefs brought in two guys and it was Jameson Williams and Pickens so my guess it’s trade up for Williams or wait till the second round for Pickens

shirts and skins
Jun 25, 2007

Good morning!
Hey kiimo you know who else got into a hugely anticipated game and then bowed out entirely after he couldn't get around a guy with long reach



Yeah I'm guessing the Chiefs trade up, no shortage of teams looking to move back.

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

Pickens is the 1st round talent that’ll drop to 2nd because he’s a huge rear end in a top hat.

https://twitter.com/TheoAshNFL/status/1518655434294407168

Forrest on Fire
Nov 23, 2012

Diva Cupcake posted:

Pickens is the 1st round talent that’ll drop to 2nd because he’s a huge rear end in a top hat.

https://twitter.com/TheoAshNFL/status/1518655434294407168

I want him in AZ. The only thing the Cardinals have abundance of at wr is Veteran Presence. Also, it's Arizona! Colossal rear end in a top hat is not going to stop them.

I think the best outcome (for maximum silliness) would be GB. Make the biggest rear end in a top hat in the class have to answer to Aaron Rodgers.

GOOD TIMES ON METH
Mar 17, 2006

Fun Shoe
I think people keep associating rear end in a top hat itt with someone being a gloomy gus in the locker room or 'started his own cryptocurrency' or something when it's actually coaches trying to judge if a guy who has coasted on being a plus athlete at every level cares enough to put in work to overcome the brick wall that is coming or if they are just going to cash their rookie check and peace out

Woozie66
Sep 8, 2009

I'll wait for the next era


Did this get shared before?

kiimo
Jul 24, 2003

Is he a bigger rear end in a top hat than Marcus Peters? That's the mendoza line of rear end in a top hat.

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

Woozie66 posted:

Did this get shared before?
Professor Funk posted it in the AFCEast thread but this one is slightly different. Douglas' premium picks so far have all been RAS freaks, which doesn't appear to have much correlation with NFL production since Newsome is in the lower right, but still cool to see GM tendencies when looking at potential options.

Mekhi Becton 9.85
Alijah Vera-Tucker 9.80
Denzel Mims 9.77
Jabari Zuniga 9.74
Elijah Moore 8.68
Ashtyn Davis N/A (Injured but would have tested high athletically)

Woozie66
Sep 8, 2009

I'll wait for the next era

Diva Cupcake posted:

Professor Funk posted it in the AFCEast thread but this one is slightly different. Douglas' premium picks so far have all been RAS freaks, which doesn't appear to have much correlation with NFL production since Newsome is in the lower right, but still cool to see GM tendencies when looking at potential options.

Mekhi Becton 9.85
Alijah Vera-Tucker 9.80
Denzel Mims 9.77
Jabari Zuniga 9.74
Elijah Moore 8.68
Ashtyn Davis N/A (Injured but would have tested high athletically)



Ah, nice!

Pain of Mind
Jul 10, 2004
You are receiving this broadcast as a dream...We are transmitting from the year one nine... nine nine ...You are receiving this broadcast in order t
Average age seems like a pointless x axis, especially with the range being so narrow. Draft pick or anything else would have been more useful, unless I am missing how that data tells a compelling story.

Blowjob Overtime
Apr 6, 2008

Steeeeriiiiiiiiike twooooooo!

Pain of Mind posted:

Average age seems like a pointless x axis, especially with the range being so narrow. Draft pick or anything else would have been more useful, unless I am missing how that data tells a compelling story.

Yeah, people are desperate to try and make meaningful 2D charts when that would be better as two separate box and whisker plots or something.

wandler20
Nov 13, 2002

How many Championships?
https://twitter.com/CameronWolfe/status/1519017008557342725?s=20&t=Anu2P60mK__nNFBCDzBJ2g

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

Sounds like a guy who thinks 3 OTs could go off the board before #6 and needs to find a trade down option.

Bismack Billabongo
Oct 9, 2012

New Love Glow

GOOD TIMES ON METH posted:

I think people keep associating rear end in a top hat itt with someone being a gloomy gus in the locker room or 'started his own cryptocurrency' or something when it's actually coaches trying to judge if a guy who has coasted on being a plus athlete at every level cares enough to put in work to overcome the brick wall that is coming or if they are just going to cash their rookie check and peace out

This is called the Isaiah Wilson Question.

Slowpoke!
Feb 12, 2008

ANIME IS FOR ADULTS

Diva Cupcake posted:

Sounds like a guy who thinks 3 OTs could go off the board before #6 and needs to find a trade down option.

Panthers pick is such a mystery. It could be any of the 3 OTs, Pickett, Malik, or even BPA.

I think trading back is ideal if the right OT isn’t there.

wandler20
Nov 13, 2002

How many Championships?

Slowpoke! posted:

Panthers pick is such a mystery. It could be any of the 3 OTs, Pickett, Malik, or even BPA.

I think trading back is ideal if the right OT isn’t there.

Panthers should probably trade back....

Round 1, Pick No. 6: --
Round 4, Pick No. 137: --
Round 5, Pick No. 144: --
Round 5, Pick No. 149: --
Round 6, Pick No. 199: --
Round 7, Pick No. 242: --

That Darnold trade was a rough one.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

🤌🤌🤌

Blowjob Overtime posted:

Yeah, people are desperate to try and make meaningful 2D charts when that would be better as two separate box and whisker plots or something.

I mean that type of chart is specifically for comparing two variables. You can compare as many variables as you want, it's just the context that matters. This is athletic score and age which I think is fine. You get to see how much GMs value more developed, older prospects vs younger, less developed, or a combination of it.

Pain of Mind posted:

Average age seems like a pointless x axis, especially with the range being so narrow. Draft pick or anything else would have been more useful, unless I am missing how that data tells a compelling story.

The real pointless axis is the Y one, especially if this is the cutoff:

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Pain of Mind posted:

Average age seems like a pointless x axis, especially with the range being so narrow. Draft pick or anything else would have been more useful, unless I am missing how that data tells a compelling story.

I was thinking the same thing about age.

I guess I’m more interested in a discrete age cutoff like “how many prospects did team x draft that were 23 years or older”

Slowpoke!
Feb 12, 2008

ANIME IS FOR ADULTS

wandler20 posted:

Panthers should probably trade back....

Round 1, Pick No. 6: --
Round 4, Pick No. 137: --
Round 5, Pick No. 144: --
Round 5, Pick No. 149: --
Round 6, Pick No. 199: --
Round 7, Pick No. 242: --

That Darnold trade was a rough one.

We picked up CJ Henderson from the Jags with our 3rd rounder. I wish it did not end up being such a good 3rd rounder, but I think rolling the dice on a young guy who was a top 10 pick the year before is not a bad idea. I was also on board with rolling the dice on Darnold for the same reason. Maybe the Panthers can fire me too when they get rid of Rhule

Pain of Mind
Jul 10, 2004
You are receiving this broadcast as a dream...We are transmitting from the year one nine... nine nine ...You are receiving this broadcast in order t
It is a pretty pointless graph for a multitude of reasons. Due to the draft process each GM does not have access to the same player pool as well, so even if there was a real correlation between some GMs seeking older vs younger players or higher RAS vs lower RAS players, the GM with lower RAS/older player picks might not actually have a preference for those, they might just be the BPA by the time they pick at 30 or whatever. The age still looks mostly like noise, unless a bunch of 22 year olds are acting like kindergarteners and yelling about who is 22 vs 22 and a half. There are 4 teams outside of ~4 months from the median and the browns are the only team more than 6 months off of the median. I noticed some team have multiple entries (after looking into that stuff), but that should not change anything much since everything is so tightly packed in the middle.

kiimo
Jul 24, 2003

https://twitter.com/MathBomb/status/1519088942334812165


Badger fans?

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

🤌🤌🤌

Pain of Mind posted:

It is a pretty pointless graph for a multitude of reasons. Due to the draft process each GM does not have access to the same player pool as well, so even if there was a real correlation between some GMs seeking older vs younger players or higher RAS vs lower RAS players, the GM with lower RAS/older player picks might not actually have a preference for those, they might just be the BPA by the time they pick at 30 or whatever. The age still looks mostly like noise, unless a bunch of 22 year olds are acting like kindergarteners and yelling about who is 22 vs 22 and a half. There are 4 teams outside of ~4 months from the median and the browns are the only team more than 6 months off of the median. I noticed some team have multiple entries (after looking into that stuff), but that should not change anything much since everything is so tightly packed in the middle.

I agree with everything except the difference of six months of development on a pre 25 year old's body. Six months in an optimal training program can represent 15ish pounds of muscle, or even an entire ramp up training season. It usually is more evident in linemen. There's also the classic grade school cutoff. If you're 22 vs 22 and a half when the season starts it can influence whether or not you're playing against higher or lower competition all the way up until college. I can totally see GMs having a preference for younger players vs older players.

Chucktesla
Jul 13, 2014


Wisconsin would play him at basically nose tackle sometimes he's nuts. He's part of the reason people are a little concerned with Linderbaums play strength

Rectal Placenta
Feb 25, 2011

Big athletic guy that can over pursue sometimes, but was rad for years. The Steelers will probably draft him because of course they will. Has 15 siblings.

MrLogan
Feb 4, 2004


He's going to the Raiders in the 3rd round.

kiimo
Jul 24, 2003

Rectal Placenta posted:

Big athletic guy that can over pursue sometimes, but was rad for years. The Steelers will probably draft him because of course they will. Has 15 siblings.

oh god that's perfect and I'll hate it

Vertical Lime
Dec 11, 2004

https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1519101084211589121

kiimo
Jul 24, 2003

Do teams actually believe any of the QBs in this draft are better than Baker?

Silly Burrito
Nov 27, 2007

SET A COURSE FOR
THE FLAVOR QUADRANT

kiimo posted:

Do teams actually believe any of the QBs in this draft are better than Baker?

Cheaper if nothing else.

Ches Neckbeard
Dec 3, 2005

You're all garbage, back up the truck BACK IT UP!

kiimo posted:

Do teams actually believe any of the QBs in this draft are better than Baker?

May develop into better than him. Besides if you really want him just wait till FA in 23 if the Browns aren't willing to salary dump.

kiimo
Jul 24, 2003

Leo Chenal also sounds like the kind of guy the Patriots pick up too early and then he is a pro bowler for years for them

FizFashizzle
Mar 30, 2005








https://twitter.com/nat_nfldraft/status/1519127811658862595?s=21&t=yejqWzIu68JMzRoHw6hcgw

Abugadu
Jul 12, 2004

1st Sgt. Matthews and the men have Procured for me a cummerbund from a traveling gypsy, who screeched Victory shall come at a Terrible price. i am Honored.
Chenal is a thumper who can anchor a LB corps for a long time. Good instincts, solid tackler, gets in passing lanes when he drops.

His stats are artificially inflated a bit from a game against Army where our DC figured out the way to blow up their run game with a wide-set OL was to blitz Chenal in the 1-gap repeatedly.

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020


so whoa re the Carolina panthers actually suspected to be looking at?

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SKULL.GIF
Jan 20, 2017


Abugadu posted:

Chenal is a thumper who can anchor a LB corps for a long time. Good instincts, solid tackler, gets in passing lanes when he drops.

His stats are artificially inflated a bit from a game against Army where our DC figured out the way to blow up their run game with a wide-set OL was to blitz Chenal in the 1-gap repeatedly.

Barry has been OK but man I really wish we'd gotten Leonhard.

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