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IOwnCalculus posted:You really want nuts, look at what Queen Creek is going for now, and then Coolidge and Casa Grande. Drive Til You Qualify is turning into Fly Til You Qualify. I literally just pulled up a sold house at random on Zillow in Maricopa and boy does that price history tell a story. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/44263-W-Caven-Dr-Maricopa-AZ-85138/71683930_zpid/ Built and sold in 2006 for $236,900 Sold in 2009 for $120,000 Listed in 2014 for $165,000 Sold in 2015 for $150,000 (after two price drops) Sold in 2017 for $191,900 Sold in 2022 for $450,000  For you non Phoenix people, Maricopa is a Phoenix exurb that up until the mid aughts boom/crisis was literally just farms. https://earthengine.google.com/timelapse#v=33.05666,-112.05225,11.122,latLng&t=0.03&ps=50&bt=19840101&et=20201231&startDwell=0&endDwell=0 The Western city suburban expansion model is keep pushing outwards until you hit something unbuildable, like mountains, ocean, or an Air Force bombing range. Phoenix suburb expansion hit a different unstoppable force, the 584 square mile Gila River Indian Community reservation. So what do you do? Build big mcmansions in the desert on an old stagecoach stop that is 15 miles away from the furthest southern reaches of Phoenix with a single two lane highway for commuters (it is now 4 lanes!). The population of the town went from 1,000 residents to 43,000 in 10 years. I worked at the south edge of town, and had several coworkers who lived currently or previously in Maricopa. Heard some fun commute facts from them such as: One lived 2 miles south of the town's border, and his commute went from ~20 minutes each way to 40 minutes each way within a year due to all the traffic from the new houses that went up during that time period. The commute is north, out of the city's main drag. Living on the east side of the road meant you'd get to work about 10 minutes faster, because you could turn right into the commute and didn't have to hope for some generous soul to let you make a left turn in front of them (and lol that the city would provide any traffic infrastructure) People were all buying here in 2006-2008 when gas prices were creeping past $3 and $4/gallon, committing to drive 40+ miles every workday (and here we are again).
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Apr 27, 2022 23:50
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Buyer: When was the last time that the HVAC was serviced? Me: I'm not legally required to answer that.
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Apr 27, 2022 23:54
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canyoneer posted:People were all buying here in 2006-2008 when gas prices were creeping past $3 and $4/gallon, committing to drive 40+ miles every workday (and here we are again). House-buying thread - Why is everyone involved in this process so deeply stupid?
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Apr 27, 2022 23:55
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QuarkJets posted:Buyer: When was the last time that the HVAC was serviced? Sundae posted:House-buying thread - Why is everyone involved in this process so deeply stupid?
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Apr 28, 2022 00:21
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Pollyanna posted:I know I said I wouldn’t post here until I went through that Fannie Mae course, but anything I’m missing in this house? I would not buy in the Boston metro area right now. Biotech stocks are in free fall. Investors got burned over moderna/etc and now just don’t give a gently caress.
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Apr 28, 2022 00:43
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Your doom and gloom is a nice tonal shift Dr Street. Do you already own a home? I can't say it's a good time to buy a house but... I don't have one and Ima die someday. edit: I'm being sincere - the tone here is often pure frustration & venting, home buying is brutal. 1st_Panzer_Div. fucked around with this message at 00:56 on Apr 28, 2022 |
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Apr 28, 2022 00:53
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canyoneer posted:I worked at the south edge of town, and had several coworkers who lived currently or previously in Maricopa. Heard some fun commute facts from them such as: The other extra-fun bit about commuting from Maricopa is that 347 is basically the only way between Maricopa and the rest of metro Phoenix. So when a wreck happens - and they happen - you can double or worse that commute time as you either slog through the backup, or drive 30+ miles out of the way to get to I10 through the north end of Casa Grande. And because of the reservation, there's basically no way that will ever improve. I've considered some long commutes for the sake of cheaper housing but Maricopa has always been a hard-no on my list for that reason.
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Apr 28, 2022 00:53
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QuarkJets posted:Buyer: When was the last time that the HVAC was serviced? IDGI. Wouldn't this turn off your potential buyer or do you not care?
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Apr 28, 2022 01:12
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canyoneer posted:I literally just pulled up a sold house at random on Zillow in Maricopa and boy does that price history tell a story. What I don’t get is when I lived there Phoenix wasn’t exactly known for high paying jobs. Who the hell is paying these prices for these houses. I’m sure the job market has changed but enough to support those kinds of prices?
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Apr 28, 2022 01:17
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When I analyzed Phoenix as a growing/potential hot market years ago, there wasn't a specific flashy thing like a big tech company. But all the technicals were there - employment, median incomes, y/y growth, demographics (financial), new build rates, house age by neighborhood, etc, etc. An interesting thing from Sea/SF was that a lot of people were going there for work/$ - but not because they wanted to move to that specific region. Some survey I used at the time had ~10% of new Seattle e/immigrants disliked the city. I'm not sure there was a specific reason for PHX so much as it had all the right elements and no bad elements/events to stop the growth.
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Apr 28, 2022 01:28
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skipdogg posted:What I don’t get is when I lived there Phoenix wasn’t exactly known for high paying jobs. Who the hell is paying these prices for these houses. I’m sure the job market has changed but enough to support those kinds of prices? Horrible people like me with our tech jobs who WFH, transplants from So Cal, snow birds, and those moving in for more white collar jobs in places like Tempe, North Phoenix and Scottsdale.
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Apr 28, 2022 01:28
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Tryin' to buy a house in the North Carolina Triangle. Boy howdy this is not fun. Every time I find a house it's immediately snapped up by someone buying it remotely sight unseen.
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Apr 28, 2022 01:42
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QuarkJets posted:Buyer: When was the last time that the HVAC was serviced? Fortunately, this is usually written on something attached to the furnace. Unfortunately, the answer is usually "not in the last several years." The longest I've seen was over a decade
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Apr 28, 2022 01:45
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street doc posted:I would not buy in the Boston metro area right now. Biotech stocks are in free fall. Investors got burned over moderna/etc and now just don’t give a gently caress. How does biotech eating poo poo (  btw) affect housing?
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Apr 28, 2022 02:28
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Inner Light posted:IDGI. Wouldn't this turn off your potential buyer or do you not care? I would never actually say that, it was a joke referring to a post at the end of the previous page Pollyanna posted:How does biotech eating poo poo ( A bunch of middle-to-high paying jobs suddenly not panning out causes housing demand to plummet. It's the opposite effect going on in the Seattle area right now with tons and tons of tech job openings causing Seattle and Bellevue to pop off like crazy
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Apr 28, 2022 02:39
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QuarkJets posted:I would never actually say that, it was a joke referring to a post at the end of the previous page Per BLS there’s only 55k “Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations” total in MA which in addition to bio techs includes includes stuff like school psychologists: https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes_ma.htm#19-0000 While biotech eating poo poo wouldn’t be great for MA it’s a diversified workforce and I wouldn’t expect tumbleweeds in MA any time soon.
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Apr 28, 2022 02:50
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Boston isn’t so heavy on biotech that a slump would cause any major change. It’s been as batshit as ever. I don’t doubt that housing will eventually crash, but it won’t be just note he that does it. Most houses on the market here are actually boomers going into retirement or hospice. Relatively little new construction, relatively little solid well-maintained places, but a whole bunch of “grandma broke her hip and when we went to check on her the place was basically crumbling”.
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Apr 28, 2022 02:58
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BonoMan posted:Tryin' to buy a house in the North Carolina Triangle. We bought in the Sanford area and I love it down here. The commute to RTP isn’t bad. I just wish they take down the signs that refer to Highway 1 as Jefferson Davis Highway.
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Apr 28, 2022 11:28
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Dik Hz posted:We sold a nice 3/2 in a good location on the north side of Raleigh last summer. I think we had 17 full price+ offers in less than a day. Like Motronic said above, ignore list price and look for what houses actually sell for. Yeah we sold last year in Mississippi and sold in less than a day. Unfortunately we rented for a year when we moved here and things just got worse. And yeah nothing goes for list. We're planning to bid a large chunk of cash over and that likely won't even be enough. BonoMan fucked around with this message at 12:15 on Apr 28, 2022 |
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Apr 28, 2022 11:50
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Pollyanna posted:Boston isn’t so heavy on biotech that a slump would cause any major change. It’s been as batshit as ever. I don’t doubt that housing will eventually crash, but it won’t be just note he that does it. seen any oxgen tank setups at any walkthrus yet? was pretty common when we were looking for the same reason also agree that boston economy will be fine - tons of major employers fight each other to the death for the opportunity to have offices near harvard, MIT, etc and soak up the new grads before they know what they are worth
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Apr 28, 2022 14:32
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Yeah, my own place might be doing the same.
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Apr 28, 2022 15:01
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There's a large house near me that has been on the market for two weeks and has dropped in price by 20k last week and another 20k this morning. It was a little overpriced at the original price but not alarmingly so. I'm really confused why it hasn't been snapped up yet. We didn't look at it because it is kinda ugly on the outside and doesn't have a basement, but I am really curious about what the problem is. Houses that are much more obviously awful are going in 1-5 days pretty universally in my area.
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Apr 28, 2022 15:16
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Zerot posted:There's a large house near me that has been on the market for two weeks and has dropped in price by 20k last week and another 20k this morning. It was a little overpriced at the original price but not alarmingly so. Did it go under contract earlier and have it fall though? How closely was it priced to other houses in the area? The other wrinkle is that with rising rates mortgage applications have fallen off a cliff. I heard something like a 70% decline a few days ago. No one is expecting prices to drop precipitously, but if the market is at lest cooling down (as in houses not increasing in value rapidly, not necessarily actually dropping) there could just be fewer buyers out there throwing stupid money around because they're getting it at 3%. Expensive houses at 3% are a lot less expensive on a month-to-month basis than the same expensive house at 5%. I suspect there are a LOT of people who were already stretching their budgets to the absolute breaking point to get a $500,000 2br/1bath "starter home" who justified the higher prices with the lower monthlies that low rates offered. Those buyers aren't going to be in the picture at 5%+.
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Apr 28, 2022 15:51
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Now, the flip side of that is that there are a LOT of people who got those crazy low rate who now have zero loving incentive to ever sell unless they absolutely have to. If you got in at sub-3% and can afford your mortgage you're actively disincentivized from moving somewhere else because even if you roll over the exact amount you have left in your house to a new loan, that new loan is going to be at today's rates which means you might not be able to afford another house. I suspect we're going to see a lot of housing stock basically locked up by people who can't afford to move out until they get major equity built up - so figure 10 or 15 years into their 2021-minted 2.5% mortgage.
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Apr 28, 2022 15:53
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If I bought my house today, 12 months later, my monthly payment would be about 20% more due to the rate increase. That is if the price was the same, taking the Redfin/Zillow estimates with a pinch of salt and using them anyway my monthly payment would be about 75% more.
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Apr 28, 2022 16:02
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Cyrano4747 posted:Did it go under contract earlier and have it fall though? How closely was it priced to other houses in the area? Neither Zillow nor our realtor's site shows it going off the market at any reason. It was about 30% above what other houses in that neighborhood have been going but it was also about 20% bigger. The original price did not seem outlandish. There has to be something wrong with it. I think we are going to look at it today.
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Apr 28, 2022 16:14
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BigPaddy posted:If I bought my house today, 12 months later, my monthly payment would be about 20% more due to the rate increase. That is if the price was the same, taking the Redfin/Zillow estimates with a pinch of salt and using them anyway my monthly payment would be about 75% more. This is exactly what happened to me. I would have saved myself about $60k in contract price if I had just taken the leap and bought in late 2020. That hesitation will cost me ~$225/mo for the rest of my ownership of this house
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Apr 28, 2022 16:18
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Zerot posted:There has to be something wrong with it. I think we are going to look at it today. This statement totally sums up the current market.
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Apr 28, 2022 16:19
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Not a Children posted:This is exactly what happened to me. I would have saved myself about $60k in contract price if I had just taken the leap and bought in late 2020. That hesitation will cost me ~$225/mo for the rest of my ownership of this house It is ok because wages will rise to inflate some of that difference away right? Right? 
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Apr 28, 2022 16:20
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Mad Wack posted:tons of major employers fight each other to the death for the opportunity to have offices near harvard, MIT, etc and soak up the new grads before they know what they are worth Woah you guys get as much free food as you want!? And there's a foosball table!? And we can play whenever we want!? Cyrano4747 posted:Now, the flip side of that is that there are a LOT of people who got those crazy low rate who now have zero loving incentive to ever sell unless they absolutely have to. If you got in at sub-3% and can afford your mortgage you're actively disincentivized from moving somewhere else because even if you roll over the exact amount you have left in your house to a new loan, that new loan is going to be at today's rates which means you might not be able to afford another house. I suspect we're going to see a lot of housing stock basically locked up by people who can't afford to move out until they get major equity built up - so figure 10 or 15 years into their 2021-minted 2.5% mortgage. I'm curious how this will end up playing out over the next year or two. High interests rates will have to put downward pressure on prices, right?
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Apr 28, 2022 16:35
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Residency Evil posted:
In theory but this is hell world so maybeeeee? A little?
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Apr 28, 2022 16:39
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Historically rates have had very little impact of housing prices. At the margins they make people buy less house but usually don’t deter many people from buying entirely. Also prices rarely go down very much on residential housing, they might just stagnate a little. Everyone who’s expecting another 2008-2009 style crash doesn’t realize how exceptional the circumstances were that lead to that market, and also does not realize how the regulatory environment has changed since then.
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Apr 28, 2022 16:45
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Zerot posted:Neither Zillow nor our realtor's site shows it going off the market at any reason. It was about 30% above what other houses in that neighborhood have been going but it was also about 20% bigger. The original price did not seem outlandish. I found a re-listed house that I eyed a few months earlier and just asked my agent what was up with it, she was able to see that 2 offers fell through because of the inspection. She was able to get the inspection report and sent it too me, there were a few issues with the house that scared off the other buys but didn't seem that big of a deal to me. We looked at it and put in a backup offer (the owner had just accepted a new offer) at lower than asking. We ended up finding a different and better house but it could be worth checking out a place even if something feels off about it.
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Apr 28, 2022 16:55
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Residency Evil posted:Woah you guys get as much free food as you want!? And there's a foosball table!? And we can play whenever we want!? In addition to what therobit said, rates also put much, much less pressure on people who already have the cash to buy a house, either because they're rich/an investor or because they have a shitton of equity in the house that they're rolling over. So when rates go to 7% a buyer who is putting down 20% on a $500,000 house for a total loan of $400k is going to be WAY more sensitive to the rate increase than someone who is selling a home they've owned for 15 years and is getting $300k out after they pay off their old loan, since for the same $500k home as the other guy they're only taking out a $200k loan. Lower loan amount means lower payments even if you're paying higher rates. It's the first time buyers needing financing that get squeezed the hardest. The past couple of years were a golden opportunity to build some wealth if you could find a place and get in on those rock bottom rates. Any loan in the 2-3% ballpark is borderline free money, it's going to set another tranche of homeowners up really well. Cyrano4747 fucked around with this message at 16:58 on Apr 28, 2022 |
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Apr 28, 2022 16:55
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I bought a house at double-digit interest rates (I think 13%?) in the mid-to-late 1980s. The housing market in Massachusetts was red-hot at the time, and if you didn't buy, even at 13%, you were never going to get to buy. The minicomputer industry tanked (rip DEC, Pr1me, Data General, ...), there was a defense industry cut-back that I don't remember the causes of, and housing prices tanked. Most recently-bought houses were suddenly very underwater. Even though there was a lot of pent-up demand, there wasn't enough to maintain housing prices at their previous level. It can absolutely happen again.
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Apr 28, 2022 17:00
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raggedphoto posted:I found a re-listed house that I eyed a few months earlier and just asked my agent what was up with it, she was able to see that 2 offers fell through because of the inspection. She was able to get the inspection report and sent it too me, there were a few issues with the house that scared off the other buys but didn't seem that big of a deal to me. We looked at it and put in a backup offer (the owner had just accepted a new offer) at lower than asking. We ended up finding a different and better house but it could be worth checking out a place even if something feels off about it. To build on this - a sitting house in a red hot market is poison. Most of the time it's just a newer realtor that hosed up and listed it too high. With everyone creating lists of houses to see on Zillow/Redfin - sitting houses go to the bottom of people's lists. Or it's a Zillow/OpenDoor house and your realtor can let you know so you don't have to bother seeing it.
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Apr 28, 2022 17:46
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Cyrano4747 posted:In addition to what therobit said, rates also put much, much less pressure on people who already have the cash to buy a house, either because they're rich/an investor or because they have a shitton of equity in the house that they're rolling over. So when rates go to 7% a buyer who is putting down 20% on a $500,000 house for a total loan of $400k is going to be WAY more sensitive to the rate increase than someone who is selling a home they've owned for 15 years and is getting $300k out after they pay off their old loan, since for the same $500k home as the other guy they're only taking out a $200k loan. Lower loan amount means lower payments even if you're paying higher rates. I'm still having a very tough time trying to figure out who all of these buyers are that are shopping for 400k homes, yet have enough cash to put in an offer for $600k/waive all contingencies/etc. Presumably it's someone who just sold their paid off $800k home? I'm just having a tough time believing that those people aren't trying to buy an even more expensive home because  .
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Apr 28, 2022 17:56
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A rising "cost to borrow" should influence how much people are able to pay for a house, in a vacuum, but historically home values have gone UP when interest rates go up, because it's typically inflation driving both interest rates & home values up, up up. And if you're selling your Starter Home for a 100% return, who cares if your old mortgage was 3% and your new one is 5%??? It's free money!! Basically home values just go up or down if there's more buyers vs more sellers. Even building more homes doesn't do anything.
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Apr 28, 2022 18:10
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1st_Panzer_Div. posted:To build on this - a sitting house in a red hot market is poison. Most of the time it's just a newer realtor that hosed up and listed it too high. With everyone creating lists of houses to see on Zillow/Redfin - sitting houses go to the bottom of people's lists. Or it's a Zillow/OpenDoor house and your realtor can let you know so you don't have to bother seeing it. I started filtering Redfin to show homes that had been on the market for more than 30 days and while most were total crap/overpriced there were some hidden gems including the house we are closing on.
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Apr 28, 2022 18:26
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Had a house showing cancelled as I pulled into the driveway because it was bought site unseen off the internet before it came onto the market. That's twice this week!
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Apr 28, 2022 18:40
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