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the popes toes posted:For years. And years. poo poo. Russia may have the stomach for "years" but I'm not sure the West does. This seems exactly backwards. NATO isn't the one losing its soldiers by the tens of thousands, RUSSIA is. NATO isn't the one under nut-crushing sanctions, Russia is. Russia is the one that can't replenish its stocks of (relatively) modern equipment. And so on. For "the West" the military cost is really just military spending, and military spending is an easy sell. poo poo, America can underwrite the entire thing as a rounding error of its overall military budget. Conversely, Russia's entire economy is a rounding error in the combined economies arrayed against it on the sanctions front. Short of nukes, Russia's only escalation is mass conscription, but in 2022 what is the battlefield effect of arraying 500,000 garbage conscripts with T-55 tier gear against Ukrainians who are being gifted half the NATO artillery/drone/missile/MLRS park? Also if Russia couldn't supply and transport 200,000 (relatively) trained troops, how do they even employ a mass army of scrubs in Ukraine? The only way Ukraine loses is if they stop fighting of their own accord, and uhhhhhhh yeah that's not in the cards.
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Apr 28, 2022 16:59
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Affi posted:I've often seen it bandied about that ukraine has been given more weapons then any country since ww 2. Hell as I'm pretty sure as someone probably mentioned earlier in the thread, the aid North Vietnam received from the USSR and China absolutely dwarfs what Ukraine is being sent. 2000 tanks, 7000 artillery guns, APCs, surface to air missile launchers directly manned by Soviet troops, etc...
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Apr 28, 2022 16:59
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the popes toes posted:https://twitter.com/KyleWOrton/status/1519667603760992259?cxt=HHwWhsC-rcro-JYqAAAA
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Apr 28, 2022 17:01
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https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1519630537379430400/photo/1 Is it weird to anyone else that the British have marked for Ukraine/contested territory on that spit of land south of Kherson? Liveuamap has had it taken by Russians since early April.
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Apr 28, 2022 17:02
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Mr Luxury Yacht posted:Hell as I'm pretty sure as someone probably mentioned earlier in the thread, the aid North Vietnam received from the USSR and China absolutely dwarfs what Ukraine is being sent. 2000 tanks, 7000 artillery guns, APCs, surface to air missile launchers directly manned by Soviet troops, etc... Fighters directly manned by Soviet troops. It was kinda nuts.
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Apr 28, 2022 17:02
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All this talk about Ukrainian refugee crime wave made me remember Polish right-wing inspired gossips: "Ukrainian women will steal Polish husbands!" There's a bunch of "true story" stuff with good Catholic family taking young Ukrainian mother with children to their homes, and wife stepping out for a moment, then going back earlier than expected only to find husband in bed with the Ukrainian woman! It's either that or rumors of women from Ukraine expecting to have hair, makeup and nails done for free. Considering how rabidly anti-Ukrainian Polish right-wing parties were, if there were a huge crime wave going on in a country that at the moment has majority of refugees we'd know it.
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Apr 28, 2022 17:03
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Gort posted:Eh, this is one of NATO's best opportunities to put all the materiel they've been amassing for decades to its main use - destroying Russian forces. NATO didn't run out of steam supplying the Afghans during the Soviet occupation, I doubt they'll run out of steam supplying a much more easily-supplied military. On both sides this is a war of technology and money, and NATO has much more of both than Russia does. NATO is getting MAXIMUM Bargain on its money in war material right now. Just a completely ridiculous ratio of effective use to casualties (none). Weapons that were purpose built to stop russia are being used exactly for that purpose and as long as there are Ukrainians to use them NATO would be stupid to bite the hands that feeds that MIC moneypit. I for one am just relieved all the weapons are actually being used on actual villains.
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Apr 28, 2022 17:04
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Mr Luxury Yacht posted:Hell as I'm pretty sure as someone probably mentioned earlier in the thread, the aid North Vietnam received from the USSR and China absolutely dwarfs what Ukraine is being sent. 2000 tanks, 7000 artillery guns, APCs, surface to air missile launchers directly manned by Soviet troops, etc... That is absolutely true. hosed up that newspapers are not being honest about the aid being a piss in missisippi compared to historical post ww 2.
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Apr 28, 2022 17:04
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PederP posted:<snip> ...the sanctions on Russia mean that storehouses are close to empty for many things I want to believe this, and it seems the twitter generals all believe it, ie "Russia has, at best, one last offense before they are materielly exhausted" but I worry about this assumption. Only Russia knows what they have left and available.
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Apr 28, 2022 17:07
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cinci zoo sniper posted:No, there isn’t. I would personally argue that you can get poisoned by it, over long enough timespan, even if you consume it with conscious understanding of its nature. Forunately the guy they had a few weeks (month?) back who suggested they invade Antarctica pretty much sank my ability to get spooked by it.
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Apr 28, 2022 17:07
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Well, this should buy a lot of equipment: https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1519687271343140865 Insert that meme about how Russia is about to find out why the U.S. doesn't have universal healthcare.
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Apr 28, 2022 17:08
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the popes toes posted:I want to believe this, and it seems the twitter generals all believe it, ie "Russia has, at best, one last offense before they are materielly exhausted" but I worry about this assumption. Only Russia knows what they have left and available. I worry we are all going to be dismayed at just how long russia can shamble on in an endless war like some zombie-nation as well.
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Apr 28, 2022 17:09
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the popes toes posted:I want to believe this, and it seems the twitter generals all believe it, ie "Russia has, at best, one last offense before they are materielly exhausted" but I worry about this assumption. Only Russia knows what they have left and available. I'm not sure they're close to running out, but I also don't think Russia will run all their stocks completely dry in Ukraine either. They still have internal domestic interests to protect after all. Part of the problem is the likely disconnect between actual stocking levels vs. what the higher ups think the stocking levels are
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Apr 28, 2022 17:10
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alex314 posted:All this talk about Ukrainian refugee crime wave made me remember Polish right-wing inspired gossips: "Ukrainian women will steal Polish husbands!" There's a bunch of "true story" stuff with good Catholic family taking young Ukrainian mother with children to their homes, and wife stepping out for a moment, then going back earlier than expected only to find husband in bed with the Ukrainian woman! I’ve seen many a Polish computer toucher literally rescued from a life of basement dwelling and WOW raiding by brave Ukrainian women.
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Apr 28, 2022 17:14
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sean10mm posted:Short of nukes, Russia's only escalation is mass conscription, but in 2022 what is the battlefield effect of arraying 500,000 garbage conscripts with T-55 tier gear against Ukrainians who are being gifted half the NATO artillery/drone/missile/MLRS park? Also if Russia couldn't supply and transport 200,000 (relatively) trained troops, how do they even employ a mass army of scrubs in Ukraine? Well, they do have chemical warfare too which they haven't resorted to as of yet. Which to my mind suggests that they're conscious of how those kinds of moves might alienate their few remaining partners or friendly neutrals internationally. As for mobilization, I thought this was enlightening. Issues with gear and training aside there's also a perspective that I hadn't considered: Moving to full mobilization would be a tacit admission that they're losing and that the whole "operation" was ill-conceived from the jump. Thread is a pro click imo: https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1519560531161587712?s=20&t=uCE6-1tSNp9UQ35kWkAXJw KitConstantine posted:I'm not sure they're close to running out, but I also don't think Russia will run all their stocks completely dry in Ukraine either. They still have internal domestic interests to protect after all.
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Apr 28, 2022 17:14
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PederP posted:That's hardly a reveal. The low number of functional Puma IFVs is no secret, nor is the rather high cost of fixing that problem. It is a new vehicle - and a very good one. But it isn't a fully mature platform yet. I expect that's less of an issue with the new defense budget, but it was a bit of a touchy subject at one point I believe. I was just reading the wiki article about the puma. Apparently some of the delay with the production was due to the tank having to abide by what are essentially OSHA-laws, including being fit to safely move pregnant soldiers who are close to term. I guess in this particular case the upshot is that the tank program isn't bloated due to kleptocracy but because they wanted to make a good tank.
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Apr 28, 2022 17:16
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Mokotow posted:I’ve seen many a Polish computer toucher literally rescued from a life of basement dwelling and WOW raiding by brave Ukrainian women. My immediate comment was "well ladies, you need to step up your game if you expect fierce competition", but it was Easter dinner, so alcohol was involved. There's around 3 million Ukrainians in Poland now, with about 1,5-2 mil going here after the war started. By law of large numbers some will find a partner.. It's not just ladies finding Polish dude, my friend found herself a husband in Russia a while back. From the side it looked like those famed mail-order brides, just different genders.. They are still together after a couple years, so I guess that's a success story.
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Apr 28, 2022 17:18
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US-Provided goodies have hit the eastern front - video just shows it firing, doesn't show anything hitting anything bc it's probably hitting things that are miles away https://twitter.com/viking__inc/status/1519376105429471234?s=20&t=nBLp7tXJypLQ0Qx39NFhTA Per a deleted quote tweet "Reportedly yesterday UAF used the US supplied M270 MLRS for the 1st time in Donetsk region. Film likely illustrative. For counter-battery fire it outranges RuAF artillery + fires guided rounds." Also this seems not great - https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1519700458008367104?s=20&t=nBLp7tXJypLQ0Qx39NFhTA
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Apr 28, 2022 17:20
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KitConstantine posted:Also this seems not great - Can someone recommend a good breakdown of that whole situation? Is the idea to threaten Ukraine with a second front so they're forced to hold some forces back, relieving pressure on Donbass?
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Apr 28, 2022 17:22
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Sorry to post again so soon but Russia really is playing some old German hits - now looting museums https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1519697547987664902?s=20&t=nBLp7tXJypLQ0Qx39NFhTA
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Apr 28, 2022 17:24
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Sir John Falstaff posted:Well, this should buy a lot of equipment: You can just post a pic of the boneyard or the warehouses overflowing with Abrams, it’s really easy alex314 posted:My immediate comment was "well ladies, you need to step up your game if you expect fierce competition", but it was Easter dinner, so alcohol was involved. There's around 3 million Ukrainians in Poland now, with about 1,5-2 mil going here after the war started. By law of large numbers some will find a partner..
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Apr 28, 2022 17:24
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Owling Howl posted:I think this opinion piece in The Guardian pretty well encapsulates the narrative the Kremlin is trying to push. The reaction to the war has made a few things very clear to me. 1. Some people just can't fathom that not everyone wants peace. You could teach a tree quantum physics before these guys could understand that. 2. A lot of "smart" people are broken clocks. They arrive at the same cause, effect and solution regardless of scenario. 3. Supports or Opposes Liberal Democracy is a better predictor of position than Left or Right. Maybe reducing human politics to a single dimensional seating chart from 1800s France is a tad too reductionist.
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Apr 28, 2022 17:25
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Sir John Falstaff posted:Well, this should buy a lot of equipment: Interesting bit from the article: quote:Biden’s request is likely to have near-unanimous support among members of both parties, but it’s far from certain that both chambers will be able to send it to the president’s desk quickly. Democratic leaders intend to pair it with the president’s separate request for new Covid relief funding — a move that Republicans have said would doom both packages. Despite the GOP warnings, Biden in his letter to Congress on Thursday specifically asked lawmakers to pair the two funding requests. So possibility this funding might be delayed a bit due to political shenanigans. Hopefully that's been taken account for and whatever funding's still around for Ukraine related stuff last till then.
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Apr 28, 2022 17:26
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PerilPastry posted:Can someone recommend a good breakdown of that whole situation? Is the idea to threaten Ukraine with a second front so they're forced to hold some forces back, relieving pressure on Donbass? The idea is that it's now or never for Russia to take in their little carve-out fiefdoms and Transnistria just happens to be the closest.
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Apr 28, 2022 17:27
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dr_rat posted:Interesting bit from the article: literally garbage demon party
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Apr 28, 2022 17:30
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PerilPastry posted:Issues with gear and training aside there's also a perspective that I hadn't considered: Moving to full mobilization would be a tacit admission that they're losing and that the whole "operation" was ill-conceived from the jump. They've been laying ground to the narrative that they are fighting not the Ukrainians, but NATO, forgiving perceived military deficiencies by way of Western imperialism. Mobilization then would not be an admission of failure, but that the war was widened by the West and the Motherland's patriots are being called upon to answer a historical antagonism.
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Apr 28, 2022 17:31
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dr_rat posted:Interesting bit from the article: Yes--I thought this tweet from the Phillip O'Brien thread posted earlier was interesting (for reference, he thinks it would take at least 9 months for Russia to significantly expand its military with well-trained troops, if it chose to mobilize): https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1519707509275123714 But that would require timely delivery of military aid.
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Apr 28, 2022 17:34
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PerilPastry posted:Can someone recommend a good breakdown of that whole situation? Is the idea to threaten Ukraine with a second front so they're forced to hold some forces back, relieving pressure on Donbass? Russia may be trying to use troops and men there to open a Western front towards Odessa. Its a laughably desperate and stupid move.
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Apr 28, 2022 17:44
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CommieGIR posted:Russia may be trying to use troops and men there to open a Western front towards Odessa. Its a laughably desperate and stupid move. Also, Moldova does not have a sea border and Russia has no way of getting to Transnistria. Once the pro-Russian militias/paramilitary is dead the front is gone. And Moldova probably rolls in to pacify whatever's left.
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Apr 28, 2022 17:47
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Pook Good Mook posted:Also, Moldova does not have a sea border and Russia has no way of getting to Transnistria. Once the pro-Russian militias/paramilitary is dead the front is gone. And Moldova probably rolls in to pacify whatever's left. Moldova doesn't have much of a military itself though, they'd be relying on Ukraine and maybe Romania.
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Apr 28, 2022 17:49
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dr_rat posted:So possibility this funding might be delayed a bit due to political shenanigans. Hopefully that's been taken account for and whatever funding's still around for Ukraine related stuff last till then. Wait till they move to attach $30 million to the perverted arts.
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Apr 28, 2022 17:49
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KitConstantine posted:Personally I like to check in on it because it's interesting to see the spin on that side of the fence, and it also pretty clearly illustrates the cynicism of the Russian government about this whole situation. Russian TV is openly an arm of the Russian government. How does it not destroy your mental health, or any of the articles from "experts" worrying that this signals Russia is going to escalate to using nukes when it's more of the same bullshit?
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Apr 28, 2022 17:49
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Pook Good Mook posted:Also, Moldova does not have a sea border and Russia has no way of getting to Transnistria. Once the pro-Russian militias/paramilitary is dead the front is gone. And Moldova probably rolls in to pacify whatever's left. Moldova doesn't technically have a sea border but it does have access to the sea.
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Apr 28, 2022 17:50
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Youth Decay posted:Moldova doesn't have much of a military itself though, they'd be relying on Ukraine and maybe Romania. If they roll their troops into Ukraine, Moldova won't need much to take it.
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Apr 28, 2022 17:51
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Pablo Bluth posted:Brimstone missiles are great but it's worth pointing out they're only 6kg warheads (the now infamous Neptunes are around 150kg). So they won't be sinking battleships but might provide precision targeting of smaller landing ships. They're meant to be carried in large numbers to simultaneously combat swarms of small gunboats, but they could just as easily be used in reverse to swarm and overwhelm a single Admiral Grigorovich-class or Krivak II-class frigate, and at the very least send it back to the yards for repairs for which the Russian Navy no longer has the parts, or with poo poo damage control start internal fires that write the hull off. Those 5 frigates are the only surface combatants left in the Black Sea outside of a corvette flotilla, if they go Dollar Store D-Day is put on hold permanently. NTRabbit fucked around with this message at 18:01 on Apr 28, 2022 |
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Apr 28, 2022 17:52
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Pablo Bluth posted:Brimstone missiles are great but it's worth pointing out they're only 6kg warheads (the now infamous Neptunes are around 150kg). So they won't be sinking battleships but might provide precision targeting of smaller landing ships. Modern Navy vessels are not heavily armored. Its assumed you avoid any action or use CIWS to defend yourself, and damage control for all the rest. Even a light warhead in the right place can wreak havoc.
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Apr 28, 2022 17:54
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CommieGIR posted:Russia may be trying to use troops and men there to open a Western front towards Odessa. Its a laughably desperate and stupid move. I keep reading they only have like 1,500 troops there - then again I also read they may number into as much as 7,000. Still, not enough by far to be militarily significant for the war. They'll maybe terrorize some villages before they're completely quashed. I can't imagine Transnistrian military capability to even be anywhere near Belarusian levels, and that says enough.
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Apr 28, 2022 17:54
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Pope Hilarius II posted:I keep reading they only have like 1,500 troops there - then again I also read they may number into as much as 7,000. Still, not enough by far to be militarily significant for the war. They'll maybe terrorize some villages before they're completely quashed. I can't imagine Transnistrian military capability to even be anywhere near Belarusian levels, and that says enough. Imagine Ukraine repelling the attacks, then taking Transnitaria and giving it back to Moldova. 
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Apr 28, 2022 17:55
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Willo567 posted:How does it not destroy your mental health, or any of the articles from "experts" worrying that this signals Russia is going to escalate to using nukes when it's more of the same bullshit? Joke answer: cant break a broke brain Genuine answer: I'm properly medicated for various things, and I'm not sure - it just doesn't really get to me. The stuff about normal Ukrainians suffering hits me a lot harder. I don't think I'm wired to ruminate on eschatological threats 
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Apr 28, 2022 17:55
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the popes toes posted:I want to believe this, and it seems the twitter generals all believe it, ie "Russia has, at best, one last offense before they are materielly exhausted" but I worry about this assumption. Only Russia knows what they have left and available. I am not talking about military equipment. They can produce a lot of the basic stuff domestically - ammo, (some) tank parts, bombs, basic gear, trucks, etc. It may be painful to adapt to supply chain issues - but I'm not talking about "oops no more ammo". That's not going to happen. But it's storehouses of things for 'civil' and industrial use. That will hurt a lot - and thus make the waiting game painful for Russia. It is interesting that sanctions (imposed and voluntary) are hurting Russia more in what they can no longer import, rather than hurting exports. The director of the Central Bank of Russia has been pretty clear on the crippling effects: https://fortune.com/2022/04/22/russ...-ukraine-covid/
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Apr 28, 2022 18:02
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