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Interestingly, found this older list of incursions into Finnish airspace, in Finnish though: In the period, a good half of all incursions were by Russian planes. Also, all of those were in the Gulf of Finland. That is the explanation I have heard, they fly back and forth between Kaliningrad and St. Petersburg and the corridor between Finland and Estonia is narrow. Either it gives plausible deniability or it's just incompetence, but in any case this stuff happens and has been reported too for decades.
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May 1, 2022 13:29
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d64 posted:Interestingly, found this older list of incursions into Finnish airspace, in Finnish though: Now I want to know, how that Belgian plane wound up there.
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May 1, 2022 13:41
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mobby_6kl posted:They heard about it but it never made it into Ukraine due to sabotage by a Nazi bridge Heh, they Storrowed.
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May 1, 2022 13:43
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cant cook creole bream posted:Now I want to know, how that Belgian plane wound up there. Belgium is one of the countries delivering a NATO air presence in the Baltics.
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May 1, 2022 13:44
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https://twitter.com/CanadianUkrain1/status/1520495256076271624 https://twitter.com/CanadianUkrain1/status/1520495260471803909
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May 1, 2022 13:47
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Alchenar posted:Nah the Russian doctrine is 'just bait out the enemy counter-battery and take the hit, and then smash it with our own fires'. It's not quite callousness, an awful lot of Russian military doctrine has a core assumption that the optimal move is to take risks and accept losses to locate the enemy and fix and neutralise them. In the long run it's okay for the enemy to shoot you once if you make sure he can't shoot you a second or third time. So what's the proper play for Ukrainian artillery, shoot and scoot? Can you pull that off quickly enough with towed howitzers? Seems like something that the self-propelled artillery would be critical for. The Panzerhaubitze 2000 can put out 10 shots in less than a minute then GTFO.
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May 1, 2022 14:00
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FishBulbia posted:https://twitter.com/CanadianUkrain1/status/1520495256076271624 https://www.reddit.com/r/ontario/comments/ufypsl/a_canadian_is_lying_about_being_in_ukraine_has/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share There's some credible evidence that twitter poster is a scam account - I'm not educated enough to say definitively but might warrant being cautious in posting them.
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May 1, 2022 14:01
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PerilPastry posted:Is there consensus on when Russia would have preferred to launch the invasion if not for China's demand that they wait until after the Olympics? Their initial timetable seems like it's going to just *keep* tripping them up indefinitely in terms of seasons/weather. I cannot say I’ve seen one, though for the hypothetical where Kyiv falls in days their choice of dates probably got just slightly shafted by the Olympics at most. For the current scenario, any date before May is probably stupid, in my opinion, and the right theatrics would be to deliver the rambling war declaration during May 9 parade, after which you move as uninhibited as possible for several months, and then solidify your positions when the weather turns bad.
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May 1, 2022 14:07
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I agree. I'm frankly a bit suspicious about that account too. I haven't followed it or looked into it deeply but something feels very off about it. Also, sharing such specific details about an 'operation', including that they 'changed into civilian clothes' feels a bad idea, and not something someone legit would do.
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May 1, 2022 14:07
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Capri Sunrise posted:https://www.reddit.com/r/ontario/comments/ufypsl/a_canadian_is_lying_about_being_in_ukraine_has/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share Jesus the photo of proof he uploaded was a canadian passport in front of a camp stove. You know, something that only exists in Ukraine. I didn't realize he was asking for money either. That takes this beyond "stupid larp" to normal rear end criminal fraud.
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May 1, 2022 14:10
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FishBulbia posted:https://twitter.com/CanadianUkrain1/status/1520495256076271624 This is l becoming war equivalent of r/relationships or r/tifu. I guess the equilibrium must be restored now that FSB letter #69 through #420 didn’t sell well.
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May 1, 2022 14:10
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Tigey posted:I agree. I'm frankly a bit suspicious about that account too. I haven't followed it or looked into it deeply but something feels very off about it. Also mentioned that they got Russian uniforms to let them sneak around. The sort of thing someone writing a fictional account would think is a cool demonstration of how smart their roleplay character is being and brag about but anyone actually involved would know is a monumentally stupid idea or at the very least know not to broadcast it.
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May 1, 2022 14:11
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 I particularly like that he 1)thinks Kherson looks like this and has cobbled streets 2) modern ukrainians wear trilbys 3) if he is in a warzone apperently had time to steal an artists photo and put a filter on it for illustrative purposes
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May 1, 2022 14:13
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PederP posted:Belgium is one of the countries delivering a NATO air presence in the Baltics. Plus NATO has exercises in the Baltic. That one happened in Åland's airspace which is a bit far from Estonia but it probably was on transit. What's odder is the French airforces cargo plane in Lapland, but again probably a NATO exercise in northern Norway.
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May 1, 2022 14:13
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Tigey posted:I agree. I'm frankly a bit suspicious about that account too. I haven't followed it or looked into it deeply but something feels very off about it. It's convenient for Russians, though. All those civilian bodies in the streets of Bucha and elsewhere? Nazi saboteurs.
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May 1, 2022 14:17
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In real news, something happened to what might be an ammo warehouse in Belgorod oblast, Russia ( --- smoke and explosions)https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1520746024427569154 Also apparently some bridge in Kursk oblast had some structural difficulties, haven't seen any pictures of it (https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2022/05/1/7343301/). No reports of explosions or such, so I wonder if they drove too much heavy military stuff over it or something.
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May 1, 2022 14:21
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There’s rumours going around in Russian speaking internet that Gerasimov was present too when general #10 got killed, specifically that he got wounded in right thigh and is not doing too well. Probably something that can’t be hidden for too long if it really happened.
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May 1, 2022 14:26
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Shifty Pony posted:So what's the proper play for Ukrainian artillery, shoot and scoot? Can you pull that off quickly enough with towed howitzers? SP artillery gets you your rapid reaction shoot-and-scoot capability. What you do with towed howitzers is set up at extreme range and minimise the opportunity to shoot at you. The Ukranians get to do this because the Russians are attacking, which means there's always going to be opportunities where the Russians have taken a town and you can drop shells on their guys on the front line without being shot back. Otherwise, you deny targets. Have as thin a frontline as possible, flood the front area with MANPADS so you can shoot down Russian drones, etc. We've seen the Ukranians being inventive and using small drones to drop grenades; which is not going to deliver critical impacts but all adds up to the attrition. You don't beat an army that has 2000 tanks by destroying one or two a day. On the other hand you can't conquer a country of 600,000km2 by advancing 1-2km2 a day. One of those numbers just runs out first.
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May 1, 2022 14:26
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gay picnic defence posted:This will be where the NATO intel gathering is going to make a huge difference. Being able to listen in on unsecured commands saying "move the guns here" would be an absolute godsend. Even if they can't read the messages due to encryption they can probably pinpoint the physical location of the source and be able to tell what type of unit it is based on the frequency used. Drones can be sent to the general area to confirm and walk in the shots. Encryption? From my understanding the Russian Army has very little forward encrypted battlefield communications systems, and units are still using civilian radios and easily interceptable Ukrainian sim’s cell phones to communicate for multiple reasons that include things like: Incompetence: For example their encrypted communication systems relying on the very cell tower infrastructure they blew up on purpose when the invasion opened. Corruption: Brand new battlefield communication equipment literally not working because of graft in the procurement process. Equipment losses: Working modern battlefield communication equipment captured or destroyed in the openning stages of the war. As far as the Russian doctrine of dedicated counter battery fire goes… most modern armies use a similar doctrine, whereby a portion of emplaced artillery is specifically assigned to counter battery fire, so this is not unique to the Russian Army. I would also posit that this is not working to well for the Russia Army given that 2/3rds of the daily combat videos available on the internet from Ukraine are demonstrations of precision Ukrainian artillery fire hitting Russian positions, command posts, or individual combat vehicles.
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May 1, 2022 14:29
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Stubb Dogg posted:There’s rumours going around in Russian speaking internet that Gerasimov was present too when general #10 got killed, specifically that he got wounded in right thigh and is not doing too well. There was some sort of military VIP thing in Belgorod today, but it sounded more like someone leaving rather than being medevac'd: https://twitter.com/CITeam_en/status/1520744419536048128
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May 1, 2022 14:30
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If anyone cares I just quickly went down a Putin health problems rabbit hole and it doesn't look like Idiopathic Parkinson's, and I diagnose that frequently. of course it's not possible to exclusively rule in or out without putting your hands on him and judging his response to medication, which obviously we'll never know the answer to. There is SOMETHING neurological going on, and he could be in the Parkinson's Plus category of things, and stress makes all neurological conditions worse. He does look like he's on steroids with the puffy face. That doesn't necessarily mean anything though.
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May 1, 2022 14:32
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OddObserver posted:
This purports to be a photo of the blown bridge but  https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1520740546448396288?s=20&t=FvyKUOuz9cUcEYg2xz76Xw Edit: And article confirming - https://ria.ru/20220501/most-1786447901.html Translation: quote:In the Kursk region, a bridge on a railway freight line partially collapsed, Governor Roman Starovoit said . KitConstantine fucked around with this message at 15:01 on May 1, 2022 |
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May 1, 2022 14:34
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Shifty Pony posted:Also mentioned that they got Russian uniforms to let them sneak around. The sort of thing someone writing a fictional account would think is a cool demonstration of how smart their roleplay character is being and brag about but anyone actually involved would know is a monumentally stupid idea or at the very least know not to broadcast it. At a minimum that invalidates any protection you may have had under the Geneva Convention, and turns you from a lawful combatant/belligerent into a spy. Not that things would go great for a Canadian captured by the Russian Army bearing arms for the Ukrainian Army, but being captured in a Russian Uniform would mean you could be treated as a spy and you lose all protections, other than you are entitled to a ‘trial’ under the Russian military law, of the Geneva Conventions—the Geneva Conventions specifically and excluded people captured under these conditions from being eligible for POW status. This means you also lose the right to life guaranteed to POWs.
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May 1, 2022 14:40
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In Finnish news, Russian search engine company Yandex's data center in Mäntsälä, Finland has been cut off from electric network. They are currently operating on their own diesel generators because so far no power company is willing to sell them electricity. For the city of Mäntsälä this is a bit of a problem, because the data center's excess heat was being used in district heating, producing 70% of the local heating. This will be replaced by the end of the year with a new incineration plant that uses wood pellets.
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May 1, 2022 14:49
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FizFashizzle posted:If anyone cares I just quickly went down a Putin health problems rabbit hole and it doesn't look like Idiopathic Parkinson's, and I diagnose that frequently. of course it's not possible to exclusively rule in or out without putting your hands on him and judging his response to medication, which obviously we'll never know the answer to. yeah this is the right diagnosis cause just look at the vids putin will fall out of view due to health issues soon and then the invasion will end
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May 1, 2022 14:50
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If and that's a big if, Putin has a serious illness that will completely incapacitate him next week, that won't end the war. Anyone who takes over won't be able to withdraw from Ukraine without shooting themselves twice in the back of the head.
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May 1, 2022 15:01
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https://twitter.com/SlavaMalamud/status/1520732074902274048 Edit: --- pastry dicks
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May 1, 2022 15:02
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Morrow posted:If and that's a big if, Putin has a serious illness that will completely incapacitate him next week, that won't end the war. Anyone who takes over won't be able to withdraw from Ukraine without shooting themselves twice in the back of the head. isn't putin the one who ordered the war? i mean recently there was a report he was taking a more direct role in it. why wouldn't it end?
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May 1, 2022 15:03
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Speaking of Belgian AF wounding up in strange places, a Belgian military plane just left Moscow: https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=44f684
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May 1, 2022 15:07
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are the pro russian morons on the bird website getting dumber or just louder?
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May 1, 2022 15:08
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Deviant posted:are the pro russian morons on the bird website getting dumber or just louder? Gotta be both when the war gets desperate
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May 1, 2022 15:11
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Goon Boots posted:isn't putin the one who ordered the war? i mean recently there was a report he was taking a more direct role in it. why wouldn't it end? Because his death won't change the security picture in Europe, or Russia's view of it.
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May 1, 2022 15:11
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https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1520751923355398144?s=21&t=wko_XJEXz9Au6iMTgklxvQ What the gently caress is wrong with these people?
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May 1, 2022 15:14
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FishBulbia posted:https://twitter.com/CanadianUkrain1/status/1520495256076271624 It’s turned into a kind of witch hunt where people are vetting each other as legit now. Super messy Twitter drama. https://mobile.twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1520529666150440960https://mobile.twitter.com/LouiseMensch/status/1520755028948144129 https://mobile.twitter.com/Harri_Est/status/1520549211703496706 I was somewhat in the believe camp but that fanfic post put me firmly in the fake account camp at this point.
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May 1, 2022 15:15
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Deltasquid posted:Just saw a link on facebook to a Le Monde article "why is Russia having so much difficulty advancing in Ukraine?" There are a lot of takes like that that even extend to the forums here. One good one I saw was “if Russians are committing genocide in Bucha then why does Kyiv still have power and water?” It shouldn’t be much of a surprise that the kind of info campaigns that influenced chuds on Facebook are just as effective on other groups of people but it’s still shocking to see. Tiny Timbs fucked around with this message at 15:17 on May 1, 2022 |
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May 1, 2022 15:15
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davecrazy posted:What the gently caress is wrong with these people? Trump, Chomsky or western analysts and pundits who believe escalation has no consequences?
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May 1, 2022 15:15
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the white hand posted:Because his death won't change the security picture in Europe, or Russia's view of it. i suppose you might be right it just seems that if the bad guy is gone then there's no reason for a war anymore
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May 1, 2022 15:19
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davecrazy posted:https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1520751923355398144?s=21&t=wko_XJEXz9Au6iMTgklxvQ Convictions, ideology, and a coherent world view
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May 1, 2022 15:24
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Deltasquid posted:Just saw a link on facebook to a Le Monde article "why is Russia having so much difficulty advancing in Ukraine?" Tiny Timbs posted:There are a lot of takes like that that even extend to the forums here. One good one I saw was “if Russians are committing genocide in Bucha then why does Kyiv still have power and water?” It shouldn’t be much of a surprise that the kind of info campaigns that influenced chuds on Facebook are just as effective on other groups of people but it’s still shocking to see. Yeah I'll take a sixer for posting about posters to say you don't have to go very far to find these takes. I read a page or two of the CSPAM thread every now and then and it's a completely different universe over there where Ukraine is run entirely by Nazi warlords, Zelensky is only fighting Russia because if he doesn't the Nazis will assassinate him, the Ukraine army is on the ropes, and this whole thing is entirely NATO's fault after all since they are one of the most evil organization to ever exist. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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May 1, 2022 15:26
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I'll never understand the phenomenon of 'The peaceful path is to allow Ukraine to fall under Russian occupation.' Do they think Russia wouldn't have killed tens of thousands just because? Do the Ukrainians not get agency? Is it the Neville chamberlain thing all over again, or do all these people honestly believe the Russian propaganda or that the US is always evil therefore opposition is always the moral choice? It is really loving creepy and unsettling how many people pretend to think this way ot actually think this way.
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