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Who will win the federal Election
This poll is closed.
Labor Majority 48 42.48%
Labor Minority 29 25.66%
Liberal Majority 3 2.65%
Liberal Minority 12 10.62%
UAP Majoirty 21 18.58%
Total: 113 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
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lih
May 15, 2013

Just a friendly reminder of what it looks like.

We'll do punctuation later.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-03/ben-roberts-smith-defamation-trial-person-27-admits-error/101033788

here's the details on how BRS's lawyers hosed up incredibly badly today. one of BRS's witnesses claims that the origin of a false claim in the witness statements of multiple BRS witnesses was BRS's lawyers. if true, this is a crime and BRS's lawyers could face jail, as well as the witnesses who listed the false claim.

also of note is that one of BRS's lawyers is Arthur Moses who is currently dating Gladys Berejiklian

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Don Dongington
Sep 27, 2005

#ideasboom
College Slice

snickothemule posted:

Not quite unusual for basis point movements, but facing a climb to 1.5% at Christmas and close to 3 in 2023 is what is going to hurt regular folks most. We're also used to a decade of relative ease for interest and inflation while policy has been geared to kick us hard in the balls for when it does come (which is now).

Go too hard in a short term is bad for inciting a recession, having cheap money and ballistic spending also bad for inflation.

Keating was slammed for his performance in the 90s but that was on the back of a major structural change to our country, going from bumpkins to being more or less in line with the OECD standard.

Rudd faced a colossal fuckup with American finance groups (amongst a host of other things) causing a major total wave of hell that the world is still struggling with. But he managed to keep activity up, unemployment down and inflation in check. We were at the top of the OECD as a result.

Now, we have a problem with a mangled tax policy, Liberals brushing off all the "failures" they criticised so heavily, but the economy is geared so poorly to favour those with housing portfolios and a severe weakening of public services, on top of record debt, that to change it to properly address the issue is going to be painful and long term.


Now we are so far down in the OECD with some really lovely structural problems that a position like a green energy reform will most likely get us through the decade, if it kicks off correctly. On current trajectory it's not looking good, especially with high household debt and horiffic housing market.

The hilarious part of all of this is that the simple solution to all of these problems is to roll back the Liberal's dumb gently caress tax policies, close tax loopholes, raise tax rates on the top bracket and raise corporate rates to where they should have been the entire time, use that as the means of shutting off the money firehose to cool off inflation, and use that income to fund services. And there's no way in a blue gently caress either of the majors will do it, because we're so far down the neoliberal fleshlight that the financial community would rather sit back and watch a GFC-style mortgage crisis than entertain the idea.

lih
May 15, 2013

Just a friendly reminder of what it looks like.

We'll do punctuation later.
would like to think that when Labor get into power they're able to say "look inflation is so much worse than we expected we just have to reverse the stage 3 tax cuts to repair the budget and be fiscally responsible" but of course they won't

SecretOfSteel
Apr 29, 2007

The secret of steel has always
carried with it a mystery.

lih posted:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-03/ben-roberts-smith-defamation-trial-person-27-admits-error/101033788

here's the details on how BRS's lawyers hosed up incredibly badly today. one of BRS's witnesses claims that the origin of a false claim in the witness statements of multiple BRS witnesses was BRS's lawyers. if true, this is a crime and BRS's lawyers could face jail, as well as the witnesses who listed the false claim.

also of note is that one of BRS's lawyers is Arthur Moses who is currently dating Gladys Berejiklian

That whole trial is truly something.

Imagine if you took your neighbour to court because their dog shits on your lawn only to forget all the heinous criminal activity that's been buried there; your lawn; which is now under heavy scrutiny.

jeffreyw
Jan 20, 2013
The only way this whole BRS ordeal makes any sense is if BRS’ lawyers are trying to get BRS dunked on so often and so hard that people start to think wider society is actually trying to defame him.

At times I feel like I’m getting gaslit with how much the plaintiff feels like the defendant here.

Konomex
Oct 25, 2010

a whiteman who has some authority over others, who not only hasn't raped anyone, or stared at them creepily...

BOAT SHOWBOAT posted:

So.... As a non home owner the interest rate rise is good for me right? I.e. cost of living of other items should come down?

I was but a wee lad the last time we had interest rates go up, instead of down, but if my memory and my drama studies serve me correct. Rising interest rates = good for the rich, the poor are turbo hosed.

glasnost toyboy
May 29, 2009

Don Dongington posted:

The hilarious part of all of this is that the simple solution to all of these problems is to roll back the Liberal's dumb gently caress tax policies, close tax loopholes, raise tax rates on the top bracket and raise corporate rates to where they should have been the entire time, use that as the means of shutting off the money firehose to cool off inflation, and use that income to fund services. And there's no way in a blue gently caress either of the majors will do it, because we're so far down the neoliberal fleshlight that the financial community would rather sit back and watch a GFC-style mortgage crisis than entertain the idea.

Yeah, there's so many quick wins in tax policy that would help, but there will be no actual tax reform ever, it's just too easy for the other side to scream INCREASED TAXES, which actually cuts through. There's a reason the first thing every news program or website (Guardian and ABC included) does when tax policy is announced is chuck something up purely about how many dollars each individual will be 'better off'

So we get stuck with incredibly dumb poo poo like cash refunds for excess franking credits, and my personal favourite, the fact that soon someone earning $45k will be on the same marginal rate as someone on $200k.

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

Don Dongington posted:

The hilarious part of all of this is that the simple solution to all of these problems is to roll back the Liberal's dumb gently caress tax policies, close tax loopholes, raise tax rates on the top bracket and raise corporate rates to where they should have been the entire time, use that as the means of shutting off the money firehose to cool off inflation, and use that income to fund services.

Not saying we don't have other issues and a major overhaul wouldn't be welcome, but on inflation alone, that's something affecting the entire global economy and there's not much a minor country like Australia or its government can do about it.

Zenithe
Feb 25, 2013

Ask not to whom the Anidavatar belongs; it belongs to thee.

jeffreyw posted:

The only way this whole BRS ordeal makes any sense is if BRS’ lawyers are trying to get BRS dunked on so often and so hard that people start to think wider society is actually trying to defame him.

At times I feel like I’m getting gaslit with how much the plaintiff feels like the defendant here.

My headcanon is he's going for the Ollie North defence

lih
May 15, 2013

Just a friendly reminder of what it looks like.

We'll do punctuation later.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/04/emails-reveal-one-nations-last-minute-scramble-to-find-candidates

lol one nation had to resort to deceiving prospective candidates into running in totally unrelated seats because they were so unorganised and couldn't find candidates for a lot of seats

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


lih posted:

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/04/emails-reveal-one-nations-last-minute-scramble-to-find-candidates

lol one nation had to resort to deceiving prospective candidates into running in totally unrelated seats because they were so unorganised and couldn't find candidates for a lot of seats

This checks out with the SA One Nation candidate who was just elected to the upper house. The daughter of a prominent party member who didn't do any campaigning, didn't appear in any One Nation campaign material before the election, hadn't even met Hanson when she visited SA, and who went to ground after results started coming in. Clearly just a seat warmer.

lih
May 15, 2013

Just a friendly reminder of what it looks like.

We'll do punctuation later.
that's a pretty different story though because it's the state leader's daughter and I half-expect she'll resign so they can appoint the state leader to the SA upper house (she ran unsuccessfully for a lower house seat)

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


lih posted:

that's a pretty different story though because it's the state leader's daughter and I half-expect she'll resign so they can appoint the state leader to the SA upper house (she ran unsuccessfully for a lower house seat)

It fits with the idea that they're just trying to fill ballots wherever they can.

PotatoManJack
Nov 9, 2009
So something weird is happening in my electorate. It's always been a Liberal safe seat, that was held by Craig Kelly up until his recent departure from the Libs (yes we had the honor of having potentially the worst MP as our member). I'd assume the Libs would be feeling at least a little vulnerable with the incumbent potentially taking their votes, and would be doing a pit of campaigning. However, there are literally no signs up for the Coalition, and all I've received was a generic letter drop for them that said nothing that wasn't just a generic slogan.

Comparatively, the Labour candidate (as well as quite a few independents) have tons of signage up. I've had a couple of candidates have people knock on my door, and I've seen candidates around the area smiling and handing out flyers.

It's like the Libs are either just hoping the seat stays safe (mind you it's been slowly trending away from the Libs) so are focusing their effort elsewhere or have given up on it altogether.

dr_rat
Jun 4, 2001
Maybe they just straight up forgot your electorate exists. I mean there is a lot of electorates, you can't expect a major political party to remember they all exist.

ShoeFly
Dec 28, 2006

Waiter, there's a fly in my shoe!

Hackers released nearly 300,000 emails from the Nauru Police Force in protest against Australia's offshore detention policies:
https://www.crikey.com.au/2022/05/03/nauru-police-email-hack-australia-immigration-detention-offshore-processing/

I'm not sure if anyone has actually dug through them yet, but Enlace Hacktivista are claiming that there's proof of lovely conditions and human rights abuses in there.

mahershalalhashbaz
Jul 22, 2021

by Pragmatica

(and can't post for 26 hours!)

scomo continues to be profoundly hideous to me and i don't understand how he is tolerated by anybody

mahershalalhashbaz
Jul 22, 2021

by Pragmatica

(and can't post for 26 hours!)

yes, our political system is designed and run by the type of people who become politicians, but then the people who become successful politicians are the ones so loathsome that surely even the other politicians can't stand them. so what is the secret to their success?

bell jar
Feb 25, 2009

anal beads

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


mahershalalhashbaz posted:

yes, our political system is designed and run by the type of people who become politicians, but then the people who become successful politicians are the ones so loathsome that surely even the other politicians can't stand them. so what is the secret to their success?

In the case of someone like Morrison, his ineptitude probably also helped some people support him, and underestimate his ruthlessness.

A change in leader was happening with Turnbull inevitably getting the boot, so Morrison was a compromise candidate for many of them who wanted to avoid the thousand year reich of Dutton. Morrison would have seemed more moderate, but also when it looked like they were probably going to lose the 2019 election he was an inoffensive (for them) seat warmer who would be out of the way for someone else to take over in opposition.

If you're an ambitious MP, you don't want a Howard style figure leading your party for a decade+, that just hinders your own ability to clamber to the top.

mahershalalhashbaz
Jul 22, 2021

by Pragmatica

(and can't post for 26 hours!)

bell jar posted:

anal beads

hooman
Oct 11, 2007

This guy seems legit.
Fun Shoe

Guardian Au posted:

An expert radiologist says Australian federal police continued to use wrist X-rays to prosecute children as adult people smugglers after he had given unequivocal evidence of the technique’s unreliability, something he now says was “just wrong” and akin to “child abuse”.

Last week, six Indonesian boys won a major case overturning their convictions as adult people smugglers in 2010 amid the highly charged political atmosphere around border protection.

The children, then as young as 13, were prosecuted and jailed using analysis of X-rays of their wrists, which police said proved they were adults. A trove of documents attached to their cases, seen by Guardian Australia, shows the boys all repeatedly told navy, immigration and police members they were children, which should have seen them sent back to Indonesia under federal police policy.

Good to see the AFP eating poo poo over being cunts.

Also gently caress the ALP and the LNP for allowing this poo poo to happen.

mahershalalhashbaz
Jul 22, 2021

by Pragmatica

(and can't post for 26 hours!)

the horror of scomo isn't that he would eat raw chicken himself, but that you know he serves it to his family and forces his daughters to finish every bite

SMILLENNIALSMILLEN
Jun 26, 2009



https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05...o&sf256060307=1

quote:

At this stage of an election campaign, most candidates are champing at the bit for more exposure and attention.They want to be seen and heard. They want to be noticed. They want your vote.

Not so for Narelle Seymour, One Nation's candidate for the southern Sydney seat of Hughes.She's become an invisible woman. Never seen, never heard and ever the enigma.

Five of the seven are due to appear at a forum in the suburb of Sutherland on Wednesday night, but organisers are not confident Ms Seymour will turn up.

"It's very, very strange," said Elizabeth O'Neill, who is organising the candidate forum. "I trawled the web for that woman. There's not a photo or an Instagram or anything."

Her search for Narelle Seymour also hit a dead end on Pauline Hanson's One Nation's (PHON) website, which didn't even name Hughes in its list of contested electorates.

But whether or not Narelle Seymour makes a belated appearance in the campaign, her name is already on the ballot papers.

The ballot draw, which determines where a candidate appears on a voting card, placed One Nation's Narelle Seymour above an independent named Linda Seymour (no relation).

"People are rightly confused and you can imagine it's very confusing for our campaign too," said Linda Seymour.

"There is going to be natural confusion. We've printed a sticker that says 'Seymour 2022'... now that's largely redundant."



lmao

jeffreyw
Jan 20, 2013
If putting up political candidates gets One National federal dollars, there is your explanation.

NPR Journalizard
Feb 14, 2008

jeffreyw posted:

If putting up political candidates gets One National federal dollars, there is your explanation.

They need to get a certain amount of first preference votes for that to happen iirc. I dont know if thats per seat, or per party.

lih
May 15, 2013

Just a friendly reminder of what it looks like.

We'll do punctuation later.
if a candidate gets more than 4% primary vote in a seat then they get public funding proportional to how many votes they got

Amoeba102
Jan 22, 2010

mahershalalhashbaz posted:

yes, our political system is designed and run by the type of people who become politicians, but then the people who become successful politicians are the ones so loathsome that surely even the other politicians can't stand them. so what is the secret to their success?

Dung eating.

Animal Friend
Sep 7, 2011

Jezza of OZPOS
Mar 21, 2018

GET LOSE❌🗺️, YOUS CAN'T COMPARE😤 WITH ME 💪POWERS🇦🇺
Myssa da foooooorth be with ya! Just spitballing some fun star wars posts with you my follow young people. That's my jar jar.

lih
May 15, 2013

Just a friendly reminder of what it looks like.

We'll do punctuation later.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/one-nation-candidate-investigated-over-alleged-threat-to-dismember-sisters-20220502-p5ahrh.html

one nation sure are good at picking them

GoldStandardConure
Jun 11, 2010

I have to kill fast
and mayflies too slow

Pillbug
Greens HTV site has gone live, for those who were wondering about their preferences

https://vote.greens.org.au/

thatbastardken
Apr 23, 2010

A contract signed by a minor is not binding!
ugh, AJP. useless ALP cutouts.

Centusin
Aug 5, 2009
It's pretty funny that my electorate has 9 candidates and they suggest the Nationals at 4 because of how terrible they all are

dr_rat
Jun 4, 2001

Centusin posted:

It's pretty funny that my electorate has 9 candidates and they suggest the Nationals at 4 because of how terrible they all are

Yeah for mine libs are 7 of 11. One of the ones after the libs is an independent.

Wonder what he did to suck so much.

SecretOfSteel
Apr 29, 2007

The secret of steel has always
carried with it a mystery.

GoldStandardConure posted:

Greens HTV site has gone live, for those who were wondering about their preferences

https://vote.greens.org.au/

Whelp, I feel a little more dead inside knowing that the 4th preference (out of 10) is going to the Liberals - not because its unwarranted, more so that if I take a harder look at the others it'll turn out to be the right thing to do.

https://vote.greens.org.au/swan

GoldStandardConure
Jun 11, 2010

I have to kill fast
and mayflies too slow

Pillbug

SecretOfSteel posted:

Whelp, I feel a little more dead inside knowing that the 4th preference (out of 10) is going to the Liberals - not because its unwarranted, more so that if I take a harder look at the others it'll turn out to be the right thing to do.

https://vote.greens.org.au/swan

Yeah, every electorate in WA is like that. I am sitting in a room with all of WAs HTVs and its loving dire. The Libs are position 3 out of 10 in Brand, and 4 out of 11 in Perth.

Swan will be interesting to watch though as the candidate there has run a very good campaign, and he has been at it for months.

kirbysuperstar
Nov 11, 2012

Let the fools who stand before us be destroyed by the power you and I possess.

thatbastardken posted:

ugh, AJP. useless ALP cutouts.

same here lmao

Amoeba102
Jan 22, 2010

Sydney not worst? Libs are at 5/8, in front of Lib Dems, UAP and ONP.

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starkebn
May 18, 2004

"Oooh, got a little too serious. You okay there, little buddy?"
I don't think I can put the animal justice party above the pirates in the senate, sorry greens preference whisperers

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