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Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


Ola posted:

It wasn't sunk, it wasn't a war, he's just gone and we don't know where.

https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1522504881780760576

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/519542011297136657/972241181041889370/tommssmall.mp4

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the popes toes
Oct 10, 2004

IT seizes Scheherazade, longest yacht in the world

https://www.mef.gov.it/en/ufficio-stampa/comunicati/2022/Adopted-the-freezing-decree-of-the-boat-Scheherazade-00001/

Telsa Cola
Aug 19, 2011

No... this is all wrong... this whole operation has just gone completely sidewaysface

Rapulum_Dei posted:

Great, can you link to your source for that then please.

What airforce do you think flys more.

Actually to make this manageable, why don't you pick 3 airforces that you think stack up and we can take a look at the avaliable info out there for them and compare.

If it helps the Israeli airforce is often seen as a direct competitor for flight time stuff.

Telsa Cola fucked around with this message at 22:41 on May 6, 2022

the popes toes
Oct 10, 2004

Telsa Cola posted:

What airforce do you think flys more.

Actually to make this more sane, why don't you pick 3 airforces that you think stack up and we can take a look at the avaliable info out there for them and compare.
Let's not. Looking alone at active military airframes, seems we can extrapolate:

United States Air Force - 5,217
Russian Air Force - 3,863
People's Liberation Army Air Force (China) - 1991

e: and that's just the Air Force. Not the Navy, Marines etc. It's not even close.

NO FUCK YOU DAD
Oct 23, 2008
I don't get why the US Air Force being good is a controversial statement. The US is a military with a country attached, of course they're good at war.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

Wuxi posted:

Come on, how bad can it really...

:stare:

:stare: indeed, jesus

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012



lol, isn't that the one that's rumored to be actually Putin's?

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

Isw update, posted by the guy who helps write em
https://twitter.com/Mason_R_Clark/status/1522698610667839489?t=WoTg291EDdN46VdQkGqUCQ&s=19
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-6

Threadreader of his analysis of the Kharkiv counteroffensive - https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1522698610667839489.html

Selected highlights
https://twitter.com/Mason_R_Clark/status/1522698616984514560?t=x25K8lviEq0oJ--UGxeaAg&s=19
https://twitter.com/Mason_R_Clark/status/1522698630322429952?t=xBYz9S5MJOUSXM9UM_t-mQ&s=19

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound

Ola posted:

It wasn't sunk, it wasn't a war, he's just gone and we don't know where.

https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1522504881780760576

Jesus H. Christ, imagine if the US government pulled that kind of poo poo on veteran's families.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

KitConstantine posted:

United States - "will not legitimize" the presentation today with a long statement
- said Russia's abuse of their position in the UN/Security Council is not new and has been going on for years
- Stop the war, stop using the Security Council to spread lies and disinformation

tfw you let d vox craft the statement

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

Jesus H. Christ, imagine if the US government pulled that kind of poo poo on veteran's families.

They are just dropping all of the remaining masks of being a just system, and this is just a symptom of it. Earlier today there was a photo-op of a guy who lost his left foot below the knee, and he was given a government care package that is less than what Finnish government and non-profits give for the homeless or destitute families for a week.

The Russian government is going for all-or-nothing, and personally I am just speculating on what type of mobilization or martial law Putin is declaring next Monday on his parade speech.

EDIT: If it is full or fullish mobilization for example I might not be here to poo poo post at least until the Finland-NATO-deal is done and archived because our government might have something else in mind for me to do.

Der Kyhe fucked around with this message at 23:26 on May 6, 2022

Edgar Allen Ho
Apr 3, 2017

by sebmojo

Mr Luxury Yacht posted:

lol, isn't that the one that's rumored to be actually Putin's?

Watch Elon Musk buy it at auction

I'm angry Putin is ruining Victory Day for everyone else.

RIP 1.65 million ukrainian red army dead I guess.

For funsies compare the size of the Russian Liberation Army to SS-Division Galizien every time someone brings up ukrainian nazis.

Edgar Allen Ho fucked around with this message at 23:29 on May 6, 2022

the popes toes
Oct 10, 2004

Der Kyhe posted:

If it is full or fullish mobilization for example I might not be here to poo poo post at least until the Finland-NATO-deal is done and archived because our government might have something else in mind for me to do.

Hey, free rent and electricity bills isn't so bad, c'mon.

Small Strange Bird
Sep 22, 2006

Merci, chaton!

Edgar Allen Ho posted:

Watch Elon Musk buy it at auction
I so hope for the old adage to be proved true: "What's the fastest way to become a millionaire? Be a billionaire and buy a boat."

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

the popes toes posted:

Hey, free rent and electricity bills isn't so bad, c'mon.

Yeah, its actually appalling that my work stress level might actually lower if I am drafted to the armed forces to safeguard a place that probably gets only missile strike or few. :)

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Mr Luxury Yacht posted:

lol, isn't that the one that's rumored to be actually Putin's?

Navalny's FBK got the crew manifest and it's crewed nearly entirely by Putin's personal security team, and it's difficult to imagine them moonlighting for an oligarch.
You can watch the investigation here, it has English subtitles:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WyYp9xPLa8s

Atreiden
May 4, 2008

Lol this is some top level trolling
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1522662780482068481

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

Sounds like the Russian military ain't happy with how the Donbas offensive is going

Context:
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1519985062590259200?s=20&t=yTAlMrRdrI-tlD3Zghl-ig
https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1520403705320849418?s=20&t=yTAlMrRdrI-tlD3Zghl-ig


Wagner Mercs also not having a good time
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1522712443134357507?s=20&t=yTAlMrRdrI-tlD3Zghl-ig

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

Herstory Begins Now posted:

tfw you let d vox craft the statement

If I crafted it the bullet points would be more along the lines of

- Other nations have covered several points, we'll not repeat those - instead, we ask those present to look to the source and foundation of claims to consider their truth.
- Russia has a with a public set of laws and practices of media repression and manipulation.
- For example, these three journalists cited in the report are actually in the pay of the russian government.
- As Russia lies about the independence of its sources, so too are its other statements to this council lies.

A show setting, if you have the prep time, don't worry about legitimizing russia- use the time fully and give others some things to really drill them on.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Wagner is mostly a bunch of wealthy guys cosplaying as mercs, a bunch of them got sent to the East and promptly quit after finding out it wasn't going to be a cakewalk.

Just laughable that they think they are going to get 800k well equipped, trained, and willing conscripts.

Grape
Nov 16, 2017

Happily shilling for China!

Dwesa posted:

Huh, what's up with Greece (and Cyprus) being always near the bottom when rating EU, NATO, UN response etc.
I never considered Greece to be particularly pro-Russian, unlike e.g., Bulgaria

Alongside the aforementioned cultural and religious ties. Cyprus is also pointedly NOT in NATO.
Their recent history has been abuse from the UK and Turkey, and a Russia/USSR that has warmed up to the Greek population there in that same time frame.
This is still excuse-less hot loving garbage for not siding with the underdog being invaded by a historically predatory shithead neighbor (the Greek Cypriot relationship with Turkey). But that is the reason it exists anyway.

MassiveSky
Apr 5, 2022

by Hand Knit

CommieGIR posted:

Wagner is mostly a bunch of wealthy guys cosplaying as mercs, a bunch of them got sent to the East and promptly quit after finding out it wasn't going to be a cakewalk.

Just laughable that they think they are going to get 800k well equipped, trained, and willing conscripts.

800 without the K could perhaps be doable. Maybe it was a typo.

Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...

the popes toes posted:

Well!
https://twitter.com/irgarner/status/1522593765923373058?cxt=HHwWhICysdG9q6EqAAAA
e: Andrey Yakovlev is the Consul General of Russia in Edinburgh

dude should probably apply for asylum cuz uh, dead man walking back in Russia

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound

That's probably an accurate estimate of what they would need. Ukraine is fully mobilized and is either already fielding an army of around 200k or will very very soon . Typical ratios are that an attacker needs a 3x advantage over a defender to win, assuming all else is equal.

So yeah, 600-800k troops with gear and equipment parity could conceivably defeat and conquer Ukraine. (After that they'd get to try holding it).

ZombieLenin
Sep 6, 2009

"Democracy for the insignificant minority, democracy for the rich--that is the democracy of capitalist society." VI Lenin


[/quote]

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

That's probably an accurate estimate of what they would need. Ukraine is fully mobilized and is either already fielding an army of around 200k or will very very soon . Typical ratios are that an attacker needs a 3x advantage over a defender to win, assuming all else is equal.

So yeah, 600-800k troops with gear and equipment parity could conceivably defeat and conquer Ukraine. (After that they'd get to try holding it).

They could mobilize and maybe round up 800k people. I am not sure what they are going to equip them with though; and the time to train them to be passable would be on the order of 10 months. Not that I think it is possible given what we have seen for the Russian Federation to actually train a competent army even if the government could magically conjure equipment for 800k conscripts and then keep them from all running away or refusing to fight.

Cantorsdust
Aug 10, 2008

Infinitely many points, but zero length.

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

That's probably an accurate estimate of what they would need. Ukraine is fully mobilized and is either already fielding an army of around 200k or will very very soon . Typical ratios are that an attacker needs a 3x advantage over a defender to win, assuming all else is equal.

So yeah, 600-800k troops with gear and equipment parity could conceivably defeat and conquer Ukraine. (After that they'd get to try holding it).

There was someone else’s estimate for number of troops needed for an occupation as well. I think 1 per 50 people? With Ukraine pre war population at 44 million and probably now maybe 30-35 million, that would also come out to roughly 600-700K.

Valtonen
May 13, 2014

Tanks still suck but you don't gotta hand it to the Axis either.

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

That's probably an accurate estimate of what they would need. Ukraine is fully mobilized and is either already fielding an army of around 200k or will very very soon . Typical ratios are that an attacker needs a 3x advantage over a defender to win, assuming all else is equal.

So yeah, 600-800k troops with gear and equipment parity could conceivably defeat and conquer Ukraine. (After that they'd get to try holding it).

Attacker needing 3-1 odds is in the operation, not the war. In theory if one side has air superiority or some other means to control the battle space (long range fires, better logistics and command, etc) in order to limit the mobility of the other side they can create local superiority on the area of their choosing even if the overall numbers are not 3-1.

Problem is that russia.. doesnt.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Hieronymous Alloy posted:

That's probably an accurate estimate of what they would need. Ukraine is fully mobilized and is either already fielding an army of around 200k or will very very soon . Typical ratios are that an attacker needs a 3x advantage over a defender to win, assuming all else is equal.

So yeah, 600-800k troops with gear and equipment parity could conceivably defeat and conquer Ukraine. (After that they'd get to try holding it).

Ukraine has ~400k Donbas war combat veterans, besides also having other people. The question is equipment availability - they should have total of like 600k professional dudes trained to shoot a gun, across all branches and reserves, before they need to take green reservists or volunteers- which supposedly get turned down frequently.

Consider the state of domestic equipment for both sides, I suspect that 1:3 ratio may not be too informative anyway.

Risky Bisquick
Jan 18, 2008

PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.



Buglord
800k mobilized to push from the east, this is way past Clancy chat with human wave attacks over the trenches into maxim MG nests with artillery support

Catpetter1981
Apr 9, 2020

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Ola posted:

It wasn't sunk, it wasn't a war, he's just gone and we don't know where.

https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1522504881780760576

Jesus H. Christ, imagine if the US government pulled that kind of poo poo on veteran's families.



https://www.reuters.com/article/us-film-tillman-idUSTRE61305320100204

In April 2004, the Army reported that Tillman had been killed in action after saving dozens of comrades from an enemy ambush, an act of bravery that earned him a posthumous Silver Star. Astoundingly, almost nothing about this inspiring account was true, as his family first found out five weeks later following another official announcement. In fact, an investigation had revealed that Tillman was killed by friendly fire as members of his unit shot indiscriminately at him and a couple of other soldiers separated from their unit and believed to be guerrillas.

As Pat’s mother Dannie Tillman sifted through thousands of pages of documents from the inquiry, it became clear that although her son’s death was accidental, the Army’s decision to falsify the record and portray Tillman as a hero who saved other soldiers was a calculated attempt at modern mythmaking. The misrepresentation was only undone by Dannie’s painstaking investigation of the heavily redacted official record and Patrick Tillman Sr.’s accusations of fraud regarding the Defense Department’s inadequate explanations.

A GIANT PARSNIP
Apr 13, 2010

Too much fuckin' eggnog


So how did Ukraine end up with a poo poo load of Donbas war vets while Russia has none? Did Russia just cycle poo poo through the grinder for the last 8 years, or did they already lose their combat vets?

PT6A
Jan 5, 2006

Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

A GIANT PARSNIP posted:

So how did Ukraine end up with a poo poo load of Donbas war vets while Russia has none? Did Russia just cycle poo poo through the grinder for the last 8 years, or did they already lose their combat vets?

Would it not be LNR/DNR forces rather than the Russian military proper on the opposing side?

Sir John Falstaff
Apr 13, 2010

CommieGIR posted:

Wagner is mostly a bunch of wealthy guys cosplaying as mercs, a bunch of them got sent to the East and promptly quit after finding out it wasn't going to be a cakewalk.

Just laughable that they think they are going to get 800k well equipped, trained, and willing conscripts.


Yeah, Wagner are shitstains. They're also probably not really equipped to evaluate how many troops would be needed, though, so I wouldn't read it as anything more than that they don't think things are going well in the areas where they are deployed.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

Jesus H. Christ, imagine if the US government pulled that kind of poo poo on veteran's families.

yeah seriously. the US puts an INSANE effort in leaving no bodies behind because that body is going into a flag draped coffin and home to family. if this happened in the US, that would be election losing/firing for everyone involved probably. like this is poo poo i expect from the loving gilded age.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
Russian missile strike seems to have destroyed the Hryhoriy Skovoroda museum near Kharkiv (and in the village where he died)

https://t.me/suspilnekharkiv/12309

MechanicalTomPetty
Oct 30, 2011

Runnin' down a dream
That never would come to me

A GIANT PARSNIP posted:

So how did Ukraine end up with a poo poo load of Donbas war vets while Russia has none? Did Russia just cycle poo poo through the grinder for the last 8 years, or did they already lose their combat vets?

IIRC all the fighting up till a few months ago was primarily being handled by the breakaway militias and the RU forces were mostly there for support or as a giant Sword of Damocles to deter any real attempt to reclaim them. Putin was very careful not to risk too many actual Russians for domestic reasons, since its a lot easier to push poo poo like this when it isn't actually your kids fighting and dying for some autocrats imperialistic ambitions. (And to make it less blatantly obvious that yeah they were just straight-up annexing parts of Ukraine, not that anyone really bought it even back then).

They're still doing it too from what I understand, hence Kadyrov and the Wagner Groups involvement, the story about the Dontesk troops running around with mosin nagants and the endless tip-toing around the issue of conscripts on the Moskova.

Kchama
Jul 25, 2007

Catpetter1981 posted:

Jesus H. Christ, imagine if the US government pulled that kind of poo poo on veteran's families.



https://www.reuters.com/article/us-film-tillman-idUSTRE61305320100204

In April 2004, the Army reported that Tillman had been killed in action after saving dozens of comrades from an enemy ambush, an act of bravery that earned him a posthumous Silver Star. Astoundingly, almost nothing about this inspiring account was true, as his family first found out five weeks later following another official announcement. In fact, an investigation had revealed that Tillman was killed by friendly fire as members of his unit shot indiscriminately at him and a couple of other soldiers separated from their unit and believed to be guerrillas.

As Pat’s mother Dannie Tillman sifted through thousands of pages of documents from the inquiry, it became clear that although her son’s death was accidental, the Army’s decision to falsify the record and portray Tillman as a hero who saved other soldiers was a calculated attempt at modern mythmaking. The misrepresentation was only undone by Dannie’s painstaking investigation of the heavily redacted official record and Patrick Tillman Sr.’s accusations of fraud regarding the Defense Department’s inadequate explanations.

Weird, that doesn't seem like the US made a ton of poo poo up including "Oh he might be alive, his whereabouts are unknown" just to screw them out of benefits. So no, they didn't pull that kind of poo poo.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian. :unsmith:

:ukraine:

PeterCat
Apr 8, 2020

Believe women.

Catpetter1981 posted:

Jesus H. Christ, imagine if the US government pulled that kind of poo poo on veteran's families.



https://www.reuters.com/article/us-film-tillman-idUSTRE61305320100204

In April 2004, the Army reported that Tillman had been killed in action after saving dozens of comrades from an enemy ambush, an act of bravery that earned him a posthumous Silver Star. Astoundingly, almost nothing about this inspiring account was true, as his family first found out five weeks later following another official announcement. In fact, an investigation had revealed that Tillman was killed by friendly fire as members of his unit shot indiscriminately at him and a couple of other soldiers separated from their unit and believed to be guerrillas.

As Pat’s mother Dannie Tillman sifted through thousands of pages of documents from the inquiry, it became clear that although her son’s death was accidental, the Army’s decision to falsify the record and portray Tillman as a hero who saved other soldiers was a calculated attempt at modern mythmaking. The misrepresentation was only undone by Dannie’s painstaking investigation of the heavily redacted official record and Patrick Tillman Sr.’s accusations of fraud regarding the Defense Department’s inadequate explanations.

Note that there is no difference in the benefits paid out to Tillman's family if he died in an accident, from enemy fire, or friendly fire.

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the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

hey! check this out
Fun Shoe
It's still an illustrative example, in that Tillman's death and coverup was a pretty big scandal at the time just because jerking around fallen soldiers' families is that bad even if you're heaping extra medals and praise on them--let alone trying to nickel and dime their families out of their already meager compensation. That's what gets me, the sheer pettiness of it all.

But yeah, not really a direct comparison.

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