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Otteration posted:Omar seems to be smooging all sides while keeping it all on the down low. His outrageous lie to Mike this week about Hai shouldn’t even cost Omar much since they all believed it even before it was said. Omar hasn’t won crap either, AFAIK. Yeah, in his post exit interviews, Hai has said that people have kind of pieced together what happened in the year since filming, but nobody but Omar fully understood what down until the episode aired. He said that he was shocked, because it didn't sound like the way he talks at all, and he couldn't believe Mike believed him after having lived with him for 17 days. I'm guessing that Omar never fully fessed up to what happened means that he makes it to the final three. Surely he would have said what happened at Ponderosa if he was booted before the finale, right?
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May 6, 2022 14:31
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On the other hand, if he makes final tribal, isn't his pitch that he was controlling things the whole time? Seems odd he wouldn't articulate that stuff at the end.
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May 6, 2022 15:15
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Popero posted:On the other hand, if he makes final tribal, isn't his pitch that he was controlling things the whole time? Seems odd he wouldn't articulate that stuff at the end. Depends on how bitter the jury is. Hai presumably would take it well. Mike, knowing he was manipulated, would probably be pissed off.
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May 6, 2022 15:24
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I knew it was too early for Hai to make that move. he was safe in an alliance within an alliance and it irked me when he said Rocksroy was the non-emotional vote right after going off about how annoyed he was that Rocks had basically bullied him into voting Romeo (which he already wanted?). That vote shattered both alliances, I took Omar and Hai off my roster because I wasn't sure which way the backlash would go but damnnn Omar controlled that narrative. The Mike manipulation was really slight, he basically just let Mike talk and agreed with him. As far as survivor manipulation goes, that was downright friendly of him. Aside from that you can see Omar control things again as he attempted to flip the vote to Jonathan, and obviously knew it wasn't going to work, but made sure that Romeo still voted for Jonathan alongside Hai. Then he joined the rest in voting Hai. Now Jonathan has a target to go after while Omar can feign innocence. I haven't been this into someone's game in a while.
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May 6, 2022 16:48
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If Mike and Hai were in Ponderosa together, you think they might've talked about the "hai puppetmaster" line at some point. Maybe Mike makes it to the f3
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May 6, 2022 16:52
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Omar - arguably less in control of the vote this time, inasmuch as he didn't have to do a lot of convincing this round. Still the one to beat. Needs out: On this trajectory he wins against anyone, Drea is the biggest strategic threat and Maryanne is probably the biggest social threat (at the end, not right now) Jonathan - still Jonathan. We saw the challenge beast be beaten now. He needs a strategic play and he has shown himself to be the worst of the bunch at that. Needs out: Mike, Omar, Drea Maryanne - she'll live or die on her new HII. A proper play of that will be this season's "no but you can have this fake" and while she is A Lot, I'm not reading an active dislike for her to win, just so long as the cast is allowed earplugs. Needs out: if she makes it, really just Omar and Jonathan to have the str underdog story in recent memory Lindsay - Hey, a resume item (of the smallest caliber). Getting major Lydia vibes now. I can't quite put my finger on why though. Needs out: Drea, Omar, maybe Maryanne Mike - Mike's an easy out, and I know that's true because that makes a lot of sense to me right now. Needs out: Omar, Jonathan, Drea Drea - Still sitting on a bag of tricks but we're at the stage where potential energy stops mattering. She has the tools to make a resume and if she does it she can easily win but it has to start now. Needs out: Omar, maybe Maryanne Romeo - the Heather of the season. Definitely a safe goat, expect to see him a 0-vote finalist. Needs out: everyone FTC ranking: Omar Drea Jonathan Maryanne Mike Lindsay That guy you passed in the hallway earlier Romeo
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May 6, 2022 16:57
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In general I think you’re better off saying “hey Mike, remember that time you trusted me about Hai?” instead of “Hey Mike, remember that time I told a bold faces lie about Hai, manipulated you, and kinda made you look silly on tv?” So I don’t read too much into them not knowing Omer did it. No real reason to confess that lie.
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May 6, 2022 19:11
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I am so scared Omer is going to pull a Zeke and get way too cocky about his ability to manipulate and be a puppetmaster and lead to his downfall 
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May 7, 2022 01:23
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The thing I appreciate most about Omar possibly winning is that he's playing a well-edited social game. Usually those types of players get majorly shafted by the edit and their wins come off as somewhat random. With Omar we've seen all of his influence.
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May 7, 2022 14:41
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Omar seems to be balancing a good social game with a good strategic one. I think social games can be hard to portray since if you just do constant scenes of how much everyone likes and respects X as a person you risk telegraphing it. Strategic players moving a lot of pieces get a lot of TV time because their actions directly affect the game. So he's kind of getting both. We see his machinations affecting the game but they're all really rooted less in outright manipulation or chaos and more just the social capital he has built up with people like Hai and Mike.
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May 7, 2022 18:13
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Lindsay is probably better situated socially (we've seen her talk with everyone except Romeo), but Omar is doing a better job of leveraging his connections, since Lindsay hasn't really pushed hard for any moves of her own yet.
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May 8, 2022 01:26
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Lyndsey seems like she can coast a little since things are going well for her. That could be good if she saves capital for when she needs to make a move or she could end up without a resume. I think Omar has been more puppet mastery making moves proactively. That often bites players in the rear end but it seems like he's been able to stay fairly unnoticed in part because of players like Jonathan and Rocks drawing attention and Hai overplaying more. Of course Omer helped convince Hai to overplay with that Rocks move so maybe he can handle it.
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May 8, 2022 01:34
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Nobody suspects the virgin.
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May 9, 2022 01:33
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do or die is dumb
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May 12, 2022 01:27
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Khanstant posted:do or die is dumb It is. Which doesn't help the fact that I've lost interest in this season with Hai gone.
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May 12, 2022 01:50
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i didn't actually remember this gimmick last season, even when jeff explained it, but it all came flooding back when he did the monty hall thing again, i remember those discussions lol aha yes, drea whiffing the knowledge idol b/c omar gave mike a heads up is cool survivoring haha that was a wild exit, love it. always spill da beans and make call outs on your way out edit: Jeff giving up on the social experiment and emotional/personal side of this whole show Khanstant fucked around with this message at 01:58 on May 12, 2022 |
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May 12, 2022 01:50
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Stupid advantages aside that ended up being one hell of a fun tribal 
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May 12, 2022 02:02
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Khanstant posted:haha that was a wild exit, love it. always spill da beans and make call outs on your way out I could not disagree more. Saying stuff about everyone on your way out is selfish and in a game like this it's bad sportsmanship. If you were still in the game and you voted someone out you wouldn't want every person there spilling your poo poo and trying to ruin your game. If you had one enemy or someone who had been bullying or targeting you all game, sure try to blow up their spot but don't throw some poo poo on everyone because even nice things come with repercussions.
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May 12, 2022 03:31
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Jeff has turned Survivor into a junior high homecoming dance wherein one random kid eats the poorly cooked crockpot food and throws up on some other kids while the rest of the them edge for dates and dominance before curfew. Fun ending though, glad they’re having fun. Omar wins.
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May 12, 2022 03:39
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Selfish?? In a selfish game that outright encourages deception and back-stabbing, give me a break. Nobody has any obligation to keep your secrets on their way out, the obligation to keep secrets is from when you're in the game and have something to lose or gain by the secret keeping. If I were still in the game, I wouldn't want any other player, at any time, for any reason, to ever do anything that could possibly make me less likely to win and more likely to lose. So what? Obviously everyone else also wants to win, and there is only one winner, by winning you necessarily make everyone else into losers. Being voted out of the game (usually) means you no longer have a chance to win the game, however, you still have an underlying mission to see everyone else lose, especially minutes after the fact before you've had time to decompress and flip into not-game mode. She also didn't blow up everyone, she told Maryanne to keep on keepin on. Who are you even thinking didn't deserve what she said or earn it by crossing or targeting her?
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May 12, 2022 03:42
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My point is that by even saying things like she did to Mike or to Maryanne which were nice things can have negative affects on their game based on how the remaining contestants perceive them. Drea's comment to Maryanne, to use your example, coupled with the intense tribal a couple of weeks ago including them both, could indicate to other contestants that she has 3 defacto votes on the jury in her fellow black contestants (irregardless of the truth in this, perception is reality). This could lead to her being targeted if she wasn't previously due to being a jury threat. It's the kind of thing where I suppose the golden rule comes into play and yeah while you're "out" now so you may think who cares, it's still good to treat the others with the same respect you'd want to receive.
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May 12, 2022 03:53
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Otteration posted:Jeff has turned Survivor into a junior high homecoming dance wherein one random kid eats the poorly cooked crockpot food and throws up on some other kids while the rest of the them edge for dates and dominance before curfew. Fuckin lol My parents kept saying she should switch, but the odds are better sticking with what has already been chosen. Case in point. The Mighty Moltres fucked around with this message at 04:06 on May 12, 2022 |
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May 12, 2022 04:03
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I think she is well within her right to carpet bomb everyone's game if she wants on her way out... but she didn't seem to want to hurt mike/maryanne intentionally. While as a viewer I appreciate and welcome the chaos, as a player, golden-rule wise, I would not want to get burned by someone I held as an ally or just never did them wrong. However, I would expect and it should be expected I'm gonna unload what ammo I have left on my way out on my foes. Don't tell me to my face beforehand though, I will bury your shoes.
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May 12, 2022 04:34
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SweetJahasus posted:My point is that by even saying things like she did to Mike or to Maryanne which were nice things can have negative affects on their game based on how the remaining contestants perceive them. I've given a version of this speech in this thread before, but I'll do it again. The reason why Survivor is such a cool and interesting game is because of people and poo poo like this. The whole conundrum of this game is "how do I prevent people from winning a million dollars while simultaneously convincing them I deserve it." Figuring out who is going to take it in stride vs. who will be bitter, and figuring out how to deal with that, is absolutely fascinating and the reason this show has been on for 42 seasons. I firmly believe the day Survivor becomes a solvable formula - "Win x Challenges" or "Be responsible for x number of boots" or "Play x amount of hidden immunity idols dramatically" is the second to last season it's on the air. I know this gets wildly meta in a way that's not realistic for how the show probably works in practice to the contestants, but it's still important. You can and should be looking at pre-merge boots as people who you think will vote emotionally, won't vote for you, will torch you at tribal, etc., and that deep level of play is why Survivor loving rules. If we ever get a pure season of emotionless gamebots, the show is toast. Having to play around PEOPLE is the crux of the game. It's the reason why Russel will never win, why Erika kicked rear end even though she was terribly edited, and how we get moments like Sue's snake/rat speech (which is one of the reason why this show is still on). You are allowed to be a bitter juror. It's REASONABLE for you to be a bitter juror. In fact, you can and should WIELD the possibility of being a bitter juror as a weapon to use if your back is against the wall if you want to play this game seriously. In conclusion, Survivor rules. Thank you.
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May 12, 2022 04:44
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The Mighty Moltres posted:Fuckin lol That's not how the math works
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May 12, 2022 04:57
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curiousCat posted:That's not how the math works two times they didnt switch two times they picked correctly, the numbers don't lie
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May 12, 2022 05:05
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statistics nerds play the odds, but real ones play the evens
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May 12, 2022 05:06
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curiousCat posted:That's not how the math works The “real” math could be do I want to vote this rear end in a top hat out and face the wrath of their buddies who I may or may not get along with on this particular week. Less so Monty Hall randomly shows up and offers you a Brand New Car…but wait….!
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May 12, 2022 05:26
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Khanstant posted:I think she is well within her right to carpet bomb everyone's game if she wants on her way out... but she didn't seem to want to hurt mike/maryanne intentionally. While as a viewer I appreciate and welcome the chaos, as a player, golden-rule wise, I would not want to get burned by someone I held as an ally or just never did them wrong. If I was blindsided by you, I don’t think I should be able to tell everyone at the next tribal council that you have a hidden immunity idol. I don’t know why that changes if I do it after the votes, but before Jeff snuffs my torch. So I don’t like what Drea did from a game fairness perspective. That being said, from a TV perspective I think it made the end of the episode fun and showed the camaraderie of the players so I didn’t mind it.
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May 12, 2022 05:28
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Is it okay to start spilling secrets if only some of the votes have been read? That's got it's own unfairness since they rig how the votes are read and which ones will be read for drama purposes. I think torch-snuffing is significant, it's when that players is Out of the game. If you let someone know you have an idol, that's your risk, and voting that person out isn't your one weird trick to keeping that secret. Maybe not making enemies of your enemy could avoid that, but some benign people might still blow up your spot with an ill-timed compliment. Risk of a social game with human people. I think it would be "unfair" to forced the un-snuffed player to artificial silence, like, any reaction they give might be "unfair" to someone. I think part of survivor is facing what you've done and I wouldn't like it if they just got shuffled out immediately or all sequestered during vote-reads. Navigating someone's reaction to a vote-out/betrayal/friendship/etc is part of the dealing with people game, people are wildcards sometimes especially when emotions are high and body is low. Getting voted out isn't entirely unlike being fired from a job and when you're fired it's only fair you're given an opportunity to flip the bird at all the people who suck. Fairness is also kind of a goofy concept in Survivor, the gameplay itself is wildly unfair by it's very design and nature. The social maneuvering you do is also a cascade of unfair things. Then there are parts where your fate is is gambled on by random means, and sometimes winning is losing. We wave all that away by saying it's the rules of the game and therefore fair game. The game's never worked in a way where it would be reasonable to assume someone on their way out is not allowed to say anything, and if it's not against the rules of the game, then it's just as fair as all the other "fair game" shady things in the game. If I blindsided you, I would expect you to be upset at the very least, if you had something on me you weren't leveraging before I couldn't fault you for slinging it. Hurt feelings are hurt feelings, just because everyone ostensibly has the same reason or motivation for hurting one another doesn't make it not hurt or mean they cannot react in a hostile, hurt manner. It's also not "just a game," the consequences and cost to losing tic-tac-toe are not comparable to playing and losing survivor. You're not on vacation, you stand to lose something and have your time devalued by being voted out any point. Your body doesn't care that it's just a game either, physically or mentally.
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May 12, 2022 06:18
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I think the Do or Die boxes are rigged for whatever Jeff wants them to be. It's such a lovely gimmick, but for the 1 of 2 competitors to possibly be kicked out would be beyond lovely and punish players for competing seems wrong. Maybe if they all competed and the first one, but even still, terrible gimmick for drama IMO. As for Drea, I think she crossed the line with calling out Omar. It's not uncommon for players to call out someone to "win" like she did with Mike, it's petty to put a target on them but everyone is generally aware of how other players are doing and calling out a winner is total hearsay. Calling out Omar as being the only one to know her secret and screw her over after the votes are cast is full-on game play while she's out. That was technically a really smart move by Omar, while Drea made a huge misstep by telling someone about her advantage (never tell anyone about your advantage!). Though I do think Omar should've flipped on Mike so he could more easily keep the idol, then work with Drea as only the two of them would know about it and He's smooth enough to probably work with Drea again after such a play.
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May 12, 2022 07:41
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I-SoClMgRa4&t=163s That was purposefully done to burn Gavin lmao Anyhow, I like emotional/bitter play in Survivor, so good work Drea it's more entertaining, though Omar might be super exploded now
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May 12, 2022 07:57
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Man my brain is mush. I do not remember anyone in that video. Is that Joe and Wentworth in the jury? I guess I recognize them. I am cool with the evictee speaking out. Any time your betray someone or anything your run that risk. It’s part of your gameplay. If you burn someone it can come back on you. You gotta factor that in. Jury management is part of the game. I also don’t imagine it will change much. Presumably everyone would have already been able to figure out she told Omar leading to him telling Mike. Like that would have had to be explained if it hadn’t already. So really at most she gave them an ice breaker to start the “Omar’s playing too well, we have to get him out” conversation. But that seemed like it was coming anyway. I feel like Omar should have probably just left this tribal alone and gone with the flow. He made a very good move and it might work out for him. But he’s making a lot of moves even while discussing how people pushing moves makes them targets. A big threat was going home no matter what happened this week. The appeal of stealing an idol or making a big move might a big help but so might have been laying low while shots were fired. So I dunno. We’ll see. STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 08:42 on May 12, 2022 |
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May 12, 2022 08:32
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I actually think her callout of Omar was one of the less damaging things. Mike and Lindsey know Omar was the one who blabbed; I don’t think either of them would keep it secret from the rest of the tribe how they knew if she didn’t. Ultimately, I only have a problem with stuff like that in a theoretical sense. The rules of Survivor are always fluid to what makes the best TV. Certainly allowing people to show genuine human emotion is better for the show. I don’t particularly care for the jury reacting to/commenting on stuff at Tribal Council because I think it adds to much potential for reading and playing to the jury when I think those relationships should depend more on how you treated jurors while they were still in the game. However, my favorite jury moment ever is Eliza’s reaction to Ozzy being voted out.
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May 12, 2022 08:42
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STAC Goat posted:Man my brain is mush. I do not remember anyone in that video. Is that Joe and Wentworth in the jury? I guess I recognize them. Who doesn't love the noted good survivor season Edge of Extinction a with memorable winner
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May 12, 2022 09:43
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Interesting how much season 41 & 42 have paralleled running some of the same gimmicks. Both seasons players didn't do the Monty Hall game the "correct" way, but stayed in the game. And both seasons players sniffed out the knowledge is power advantage and neutered it. I also wonder if they had a plan if everyone just said they felt safe and didn't want to compete in the immunity challenge...
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May 12, 2022 10:09
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Antiquated Pants posted:I think the Do or Die boxes are rigged for whatever Jeff wants them to be. It's such a lovely gimmick, but for the 1 of 2 competitors to possibly be kicked out would be beyond lovely and punish players for competing seems wrong. Maybe if they all competed and the first one, but even still, terrible gimmick for drama IMO. I don't think there is anyway for Jeff to rig the game. It's an honest Monty Hall game that went the players way both seasons, despite the not optimal strategy. There's not going to be a way for Jeff to swap the box a Survivor picked without it being completely obvious to the players or jury.
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May 12, 2022 10:16
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SLICK GOKU BABY posted:I don't think there is anyway for Jeff to rig the game. It's an honest Monty Hall game that went the players way both seasons, despite the not optimal strategy. There's not going to be a way for Jeff to swap the box a Survivor picked without it being completely obvious to the players or jury. I can’t think of a way to rig it for the player without some sort of magic trick style each box has a fire and skull. I can think of a way to rig it against the contestant; Jeff just has to not offer the swap if they don’t choose correctly, but that just makes the odds worse it doesn’t guarantee they go out. I agree that it’s an honest Monty Hall, but there is room for fuckery.
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May 12, 2022 10:35
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Khanstant posted:do or die is dumb yeah no more of that please. dunno why drea told omar, there was no real reason to do that
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May 12, 2022 10:39
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CODChimera posted:yeah no more of that please. Everyone tells Omar everything and then he burns them 
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May 12, 2022 10:42
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