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CRUSTY MINGE posted:I dunno. I love me some doom, and agree that doom is coming, but I doubt gently caress-all comes of it. Most people would rather succumb to complacency than fight their neighbors or take shots at cops. Kinda feel like we're not nearly in dire enough straits for a civil war of any size or variety. It doesn't take much. That old saw about "three percent" or whatever has some truth in it, in most conflict contexts that aren't like full-blown Syria-style meltdowns you have sub-5% rates of active support for engaging in direct violence. What's lethal is when public trust in institutions collapses to the point where people start in-principal accepting violence as an appropriate political tool, and especially when security services either lack the capacity to stop violence or are compromised to the point where they let one side get away with it.
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May 9, 2022 15:12
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staticman posted:Y'all ready for the GOP's Special Military Operation? This dude is jist an author making up hypothetical situations? Am I missing something here?
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May 9, 2022 15:16
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Violence is a political tool that has typically been our main export and on 99 timelines out of 100 it will probably always end with it becoming the domestic norm as well. I don’t think this is the *bad* timeline more so than just the eventual outcome of the fallout of WW2. You either die a hero etc etc
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May 9, 2022 15:17
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So would people argue that advocating for new gun control* is actually counterproductive for non CHUDs currently? I mean if you’re predicting violence, limiting one’s ability to protect themselves, seems at odds with the threat. This isn’t meant as a gotcha or directed to anyone in particular, just cloud talk. *Not that there is any occurring, and who knows how the Supreme Court will rule on its upcoming firearm case? I mean with them, the NFA could be invalidated. lol
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May 9, 2022 15:18
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Marshal Prolapse posted:So would people argue that advocating for new gun control* is actually counterproductive for non CHUDs currently? I mean if you’re predicting violence, limiting one’s ability to protect themselves, seems at odds with the threat. This isn’t meant as a gotcha or directed to anyone in particular, just cloud talk. I have stopped advocating for strict gun control ever since people in Oregon (or maybe Washington state) were armed and stopping people checking for ID in 2020. That was the point of no return for me. I even bought guns after that and I was pretty firmly anti-firearm up until then. Now I just don’t really take a stance one way or the other because I’m so conflicted on it.
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May 9, 2022 15:20
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Grip it and rip it posted:This dude is jist an author making up hypothetical situations? Am I missing something here? Yeah and a lot of them are rather unimaginative although there will absolutely be inter-state blowups over this. I've seen it argued since 2016 that America is headed for a "Years of Lead" type scenario and that at least seems plausible, but I'm pretty sure those prognostications assumed our government would remain uncaptured by mask-off fascists. I'd be lying if I said I wasn't at least a little uneasy about that assumption right now.
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May 9, 2022 15:22
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boop the snoot posted:I have stopped advocating for strict gun control ever since people in Oregon (or maybe Washington state) were armed and stopping people checking for ID in 2020. That was the point of no return for me. I even bought guns after that and I was pretty firmly anti-firearm up until then.  I can understand the extreme conflicts for people. Now I like guns, but not most gun owners (this is a constant refrain among PA TFR guns…who are cool and good people).
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May 9, 2022 15:24
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CRUSTY MINGE posted:I dunno. I love me some doom, and agree that doom is coming, but I doubt gently caress-all comes of it. Most people would rather succumb to complacency than fight their neighbors or take shots at cops. Kinda feel like we're not nearly in dire enough straits for a civil war of any size or variety. There’s going to be a lot of “lone wolves” shooting up schools, LGBT bars, gender clinics, “CRT centres”, so on and so forth. Eventually they might start getting away with it.
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May 9, 2022 15:25
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Marshal Prolapse posted:So would people argue that advocating for new gun control* is actually counterproductive for non CHUDs currently? I mean if you’re predicting violence, limiting one’s ability to protect themselves, seems at odds with the threat. This isn’t meant as a gotcha or directed to anyone in particular, just cloud talk. As long as you have minorities being systematically oppressed by government, and targeted with random acts of terror, gun rights are human rights.
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May 9, 2022 15:26
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Marshal Prolapse posted:So would people argue that advocating for new gun control* is actually counterproductive for non CHUDs currently? I mean if you’re predicting violence, limiting one’s ability to protect themselves, seems at odds with the threat. This isn’t meant as a gotcha or directed to anyone in particular, just cloud talk. I stopped caring once it turned out that the general response to school shootings in my state was either status quo, let people carry on campus, and/or give teachers guns, and if literal kids dying or getting shot isnt doing anything to shift the needle what hope is there?
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May 9, 2022 15:28
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I've spent a decade listening to conservative folks say with increasing frequency "well our side has all the guns so we get the final say". Watching them drift further right and also increasingly metastisize the attitude of "we only let them play democracy but if they keep voting wrong we can just take it back because we have all the guns" also emphasizes that deep down they think it's safe to just take what they want because they can't be stopped. Probably the biggest de-escalation we could see is showing chuds that the people they disagree with are quite capable of shooting them back.
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May 9, 2022 15:28
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Discussion Quorum posted:Yeah and a lot of them are rather unimaginative although there will absolutely be inter-state blowups over this. I might believe it if there had been any actual progressive victories over the past 6 years but I cant imagine that conservatives feel the need for political violence, generally. They have been kicking rear end and taking names using the process that they have worked hard to game as completely as possible. Progressive organizational violence will be clamped down on with a quickness and ferocity reserved for leftists. Its not really an advantageous board for anyone to strike out imo. That doesnt mean it won't happen but I doubt its going to be some coast to coast wave. I wouldnt be surprised if some accelerating partition between red and blue states takes place though. Grip it and rip it fucked around with this message at 15:33 on May 9, 2022 |
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May 9, 2022 15:30
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FrozenVent posted:There’s going to be a lot of “lone wolves” shooting up schools, LGBT bars, gender clinics, “CRT centres”, so on and so forth. Yeah, that's more what I expect. I don't expect street fighting like Fallujah here. There won't be specifically drawn lines. It's going to be one-offs trying to slaughter political enemies and the GOP's constituency will hold them up like heroes on a cross while the politicians play word games for reporters.
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May 9, 2022 15:36
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stealie72 posted:But if you want to lose money you can't afford betting on sports, there's like 10 apps for that. And drat if they don't remind you incessantly. I'm getting tired of watching Stanley Cup Playoff games and having the announcers tell us that "Hey, by the way, here's the DraftKings money line on Cale Makar to score a goal tonight BETTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT, BETTTTTTTTTTTT YOU SHEEP, GIVE US ALL YOUR MONEY!"
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May 9, 2022 15:36
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Grip it and rip it posted:I might believe it if there had been any actual progressive victories over the past 6 years but I cant imagine that conservatives feel the need for political violence, generally. They have been kicking rear end and taking names using the process that they have worked hard to game as completely as possible. Violence is the outcome of their stated goals. If you agree that incarceration is violence. Wrong color? Prison. Had an abortion / helped someone have one? Prison. Gave prohibited literature to students? Prison. Used drugs? Prison, except we only bother charging people we don't like. Etc etc.
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May 9, 2022 15:38
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It won’t be a war it will just be peaceful protests by libs and January 6th by chuds I mean ffs the needle didn’t even move when elementary school kids got slaughtered. There is nothing that can happen that people won’t just post through. boop the snoot fucked around with this message at 15:40 on May 9, 2022 |
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May 9, 2022 15:38
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CBJSprague24 posted:And drat if they don't remind you incessantly.  Like I have no problems with sports betting (and it’s fun every now and then), but goddamn those ads are everywhere…and not to sound too much like Helen Lovejoy, but I’m not keen on kids and teens getting bombarded with gambling ads constantly during sporting events or hell even at the events.
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May 9, 2022 15:40
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That Works posted:Violence is the outcome of their stated goals. If you agree that incarceration is violence. Okay yes - in 100% agreement with this, and I guess that was the general subtext of those hypotheticals - institutional conflicts that go broad. I just don't see much likelihood of widespread 2nd order violence as a result.
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May 9, 2022 15:42
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boop the snoot posted:I have stopped advocating for strict gun control ever since people in Oregon (or maybe Washington state) were armed and stopping people checking for ID in 2020. That was the point of no return for me. I even bought guns after that and I was pretty firmly anti-firearm up until then. You can still believe in a moral argument for strict gun control while also recognizing that there are circumstances that make owning firearms a necessity. Even some of my Blue No Matter Who friends are starting to come around to that idea, even if they personally find guns and their ownership distasteful. CRUSTY MINGE posted:I dunno. I love me some doom, and agree that doom is coming, but I doubt gently caress-all comes of it. Most people would rather succumb to complacency than fight their neighbors or take shots at cops. Kinda feel like we're not nearly in dire enough straits for a civil war of any size or variety. I think that we'll have flashpoint events like what happened in Charlottesville in 2017, Portland in 2020 and maybe more attempts to take over state capitols as well as random violence in DC. The militant right was emboldened by Trump and is now motivated by grievance and acting like they still have impunity, or are soon to regain it. The truckers convoy protests are still ongoing, and they actually shot at some people near Portland a week or so ago.
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May 9, 2022 15:43
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staticman posted:Y'all ready for the GOP's Special Military Operation? I wouldn't be surprised at all if Agolf runs again and loses again in 2024 that he comes out with some bullshit like "Hey, if I won your state, separate from the US and join my glorious new country which I will bankroll myself!" Terrifying Effigies posted:Not sure I 100% buy Dr. Jha's analysis there - he's got some valid points but it looks like there's some statistical cherry-picking that overstates his case. Methinks The South is Gonna Rise Again.
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May 9, 2022 15:44
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CBJSprague24 posted:I wouldn't be surprised at all if Agolf runs again and loses again in 2024 that he comes out with some bullshit like "Hey, if I won your state, separate from the US and join my glorious new country which I will bankroll myself!"  But with B-2 Bombers.
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May 9, 2022 15:50
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Grip it and rip it posted:I might believe it if there had been any actual progressive victories over the past 6 years but I cant imagine that conservatives feel the need for political violence, generally. They have been kicking rear end and taking names using the process that they have worked hard to game as completely. Fascist movements thrive on violence against racial, sexual, religious, and political minorities/out groups. As long as these groups exist and have any semblance of equal rights, the fascist paramilitaries will continue to attack. It’s a necessity beyond what can be gained through the political process. Once the fascist movement wins, the street violence will die down as the out groups are then legally subjugated and the paramilitaries are either absorbed into the stable authoritarian state apparatus or purged.
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May 9, 2022 16:00
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The states were the public health response was the least capable had the worst mortality rates with COVID-19. They also happen to all have Republican State governments.
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May 9, 2022 16:01
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Stultus Maximus posted:Fascist movements thrive on violence against racial, sexual, religious, and political minorities/out groups. As long as these groups exist and have any semblance of equal rights, the fascist paramilitaries will continue to attack. It’s a necessity beyond what can be gained through the political process. Fascist government inherently requires an out group to victimize. If the out group is wiped out, expatriated, or becomes politically expedient to avoid, a new one will be invented. Fascism is inherently an ideology of destruction. You can't justify a strong totalitarian state unless it's in the service of crushing the perceived foes. If the Fascists utterly subjugated the planet, the new outgroup would be the 'unpure' fascists who don't cleave to some imagined orthodoxy.
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May 9, 2022 16:08
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Marshal Prolapse posted:
I did have a sensible chuckle seeing Patton Oswalt shilling for a sports betting site, especially after he had that routine a few years ago about being paid mid-five figures for one show at a casino but how it would be beneath his integrity to start doing that all the time. Wonder how soon until an NFL player gets caught colluding with gamblers to miss a field goal to keep a point spread within an acceptable margin. There's way too much money floating around and NFL careers are naturally short anyway to make it inevitable.
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May 9, 2022 16:10
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https://twitter.com/presssec/status/1523649143951962115?s=21&t=PeUj23pIO80nerpxCjbamw Please do not make me feel unsafe while I legislate your death citizen
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May 9, 2022 17:30
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https://twitter.com/fawfulfan/status/1523679767081648128
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May 9, 2022 17:30
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quote:Please do not make me feel unsafe while I legislate your death citizen https://twitter.com/ndrew_lawrence/status/1523682436638715904?t=kb9MUA_KZW1v1KVo3EldQg&s=19 The Democratic party is perfect at tut tutting anything while enabling the worst people in the world
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May 9, 2022 17:36
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Kazinsal posted:TFR is by far the best gun forum on the net and everyone there is super chill. Running out gtab and the other weirdo right wingers turned it into an awesome, pretty left leaning, LGBTQ+ friendly board for firearms enthusiasts. Next to this thread, the coldwar/airpower thread there is the second best place to discuss Land War In Eurasia 2022 Edition. Wait, what did Gtab do? It's been a while since I checked but I thought he fell into the non-shithead camp?
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May 9, 2022 18:24
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Time Crisis Actor posted:Wait, what did Gtab do? It's been a while since I checked but I thought he fell into the non-shithead camp? He was just kind of generally an inflammatory rear end in a top hat, I don't know of any specific drama beyond that.
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May 9, 2022 18:31
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Marshal Prolapse posted:
Also, I'm super not keen on the pathway we're on where sports will merely be the semi-random number generator for gambling. I know that's been a side purpose for basically all of humanity, but I'm not sure what to make of constant discussion of odds and betting during broadcasts and loving Ballys now being the local sports TV provider for large portions of the country.
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May 9, 2022 19:34
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stealie72 posted:I've got no problems with sports betting when you gotta take your rear end down to the casino to do it, but doing it through apps is just a good way to lose all your money in an hour in the comfort of your own home. Its nothing but the continuing march to extract profits from us little guys through every avenue possible.
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May 9, 2022 19:52
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Time Crisis Actor posted:Wait, what did Gtab do? It's been a while since I checked but I thought he fell into the non-shithead camp? He was a look-at-me knowitall dickhead. Probably not a racist shithead like some of the other people who have been run out
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May 9, 2022 19:55
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Arrath posted:Its nothing but the continuing march to extract profits from us little guys through every avenue possible. The brilliant Citations Needed podcast just took a deep dive into this last week https://podcasts.google.com?feed=aH...TNhNzU4YzA0ZjM2
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May 9, 2022 19:59
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Yeah there are stories out of the UK that show what we have to look forward to: quote:At no point during the soccer game between Stoke City and visiting Watford did anyone say, “Tonight’s match is brought to you by bet365,” one of the world’s largest online gambling companies. No one needed to. It was pretty obvious. quote:Because of that competition, fans 40 and younger grew up inundated with gambling ads. The subtext, and sometimes the text, was that soccer and betting don’t merely go together — they enhance each other. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/26/business/bet365-gambling-sports-betting.html
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May 9, 2022 20:02
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shame on an IGA posted:The brilliant Citations Needed podcast just took a deep dive into this last week Nice, thanks!
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May 9, 2022 20:13
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shame on an IGA posted:The brilliant Citations Needed podcast just took a deep dive into this last week
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May 9, 2022 20:17
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It seems like every ad on the DC metro is either sports betting or crypto (which is just gambling on purely abstract number).
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May 9, 2022 20:45
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Time Crisis Actor posted:Wait, what did Gtab do? It's been a while since I checked but I thought he fell into the non-shithead camp? Generally a provocative rear end in a top hat who liked stirring poo poo, and couldn't handle it back. For every good, informative effort post, there were dozens of toxic posts that did nothing but drive away conversation. He was also prolific during the time TFR had issues, and while not a Right Wing rear end in a top hat, he brokered no intelligent conversation among ideas he found wrong, and the whole forum was much more right than it is now. E- he was also unbelievably rear end in a top hat like towards new posters- particularly if they violated some invisible forums law he imagined, or they asked what Gtab believed was a stupid question.
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May 9, 2022 20:46
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Does citations needed still hold up Glen Greenwald as a visionary? They had a real bad habit of holding him up as an example in the dozen or so episodes i listened to?
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May 9, 2022 20:54
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