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Who will win the federal Election This poll is closed. |
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| Labor Majority |
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48 | 42.48% |
| Labor Minority |
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29 | 25.66% |
| Liberal Majority |
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3 | 2.65% |
| Liberal Minority |
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12 | 10.62% |
| UAP Majoirty |
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21 | 18.58% |
| Total: | 113 votes | ||
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What is the biggest issue of this election? Albo's being so small-target as to be incorporeal, and Scott's just doing the old "the finger thing means the money" routine. Like there's no big housing/super/GST reform, boat people were floated (lol) but no one really got worked up enough for the parties to pursue it. Maybe ICAC or the Solomons? Neither seem to have legs. It's extremely weak poo poo this year.
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May 9, 2022 10:13
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biggest issue for labor is industrial relations especially relating to wages growth/cost of living etc.SuddenCactus posted:how long until the postal voting is causing election fraud gets imported? one nation are already on it - the aec has gotten videos they made claiming labor does postal vote fraud taken down https://www.pedestrian.tv/federal-election-australia/pauline-hanson-please-explain-cartoon-electoral-fraud-allegation-aec/ lih fucked around with this message at 10:21 on May 9, 2022 |
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May 9, 2022 10:19
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Like looking back to at least Howard/Keating, each election had some big poo poo or at least juicy leadership drama around it. Feels like nothing's resonating with folks this time. Just super low-energy. Maybe it's me. I'm pretty low-energy this year.
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May 9, 2022 10:26
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it is particularly uninspiring because morrison has no serious agenda & labor also are being extremely cautious because they were punished for being too ambitious last time labor does at least have something to offer (wages growth, aged care, health care, etc.) so they do come off better by comparison there but it's still all very bleak
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May 9, 2022 10:34
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Labor will be more ambitious in government, the prominent theory is that people don't trust federal labor in general due to Rudd-Gillard-Rudd so labor will gain trust in government but also not give reasons for distrust in opposition.
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May 9, 2022 10:38
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It's a tactic that you can rightfully hate but if the polls prove correct then it's a tactic that won government.
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May 9, 2022 10:40
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Anidav posted:Labor will be more ambitious in government, the prominent theory is that people don't trust federal labor in general due to Rudd-Gillard-Rudd so labor will gain trust in government but also not give reasons for distrust in opposition. i do not have expectations beyond the bare minimum but i would like to be pleasantly surprised, or at least see the greens successfully bully them in the senate into being better
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May 9, 2022 10:44
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I really hope Labor have learned their lesson from 2007-2013. If not for all Rudd-Gillard-Rudd mess getting the attention they probably could have got a solid decade in power.
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May 9, 2022 10:44
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Anidav posted:Labor will be more ambitious in government i am going to hold you personally responsible for this if it does not happen
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May 9, 2022 10:47
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Fantasise about a lifetime of our media going hard on the LNP like they do Labor now and ask yourself if Morisson would have the nuts to do anything other than sook about how unfair it is. Labor have hung in there by not giving them any ammunition except for a few homework questions that are as useless as the dropkicks asking them. Miss the days of Keating single handedly roasting everyone while all they could throw back at him was his "arrogance". snickothemule fucked around with this message at 10:56 on May 9, 2022 |
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May 9, 2022 10:53
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https://twitter.com/AusCommenter/status/1523296916020555776
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May 9, 2022 11:03
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He’s 21yo. Oh god I just remembered Wyatt Roy. Elected at 20yo and held office 6 years.
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May 9, 2022 11:17
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Awww he’s so cute.
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May 9, 2022 11:27
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Mola Yam posted:Like looking back to at least Howard/Keating, each election had some big poo poo or at least juicy leadership drama around it. The funny thing is we just came through the most Big Deal Historical Event since WWII, which absolutely ravaged the outside world but had policies which, all things being relative, had minor disruption to life within Australia (only Melbourne would have racked up more total lockdown days than most Western countries) and tens of thousands of lives saved. But the government can't really point to that because they willingly receded into the background to let the states deal with it, and the three things Australia did gently caress up - seepage at the border, slow vaccine rollout and failure to prepare for the reopening by stocking up on RATs - are all their fault, or at least perceived to be their fault. And Labor don't want to point to it either because they (probably correctly) think people just want to put it in the rear-view mirror. So we've all just gone through this really bizarre, drawn-out, horrible event that was unprecedented in our lifetimes but it's a non-issue for the election campaign coming immediately after it. No wonder it feels weird.
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May 9, 2022 11:34
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Would be interested to know how people see the UAP vote and preference flows playing out. I think this piece in the Age is over-egging it, but if there's a wild card in the election I think it's definitely this. https://www.theage.com.au/politics/...427-p5aghd.html
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May 9, 2022 11:36
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Earthworm Jim
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May 9, 2022 11:45
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The Lord Bude posted:Awww he’s so cute. What? Like a scared turtle?
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May 9, 2022 11:50
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freebooter posted:Would be interested to know how people see the UAP vote and preference flows playing out. I think this piece in the Age is over-egging it, but if there's a wild card in the election I think it's definitely this. even at 7% statewide in vic that barely means anything - if they got really lucky they could get a senate seat there but would have pretty much no chance of winning any lower house seats beyond some surprise shock performance. uap preferences will probably favour the coalition but not overwhelmingly. last election one nation & uap preferences both went about ~65% to the coalition so i'd really expect something similar or a little higher here, which is not likely to make any sort of big difference. like the article says uap are expected to be strongest in some safe labor seats in vic - at best they just reduce labor's margins in those a little but that's about it?
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May 9, 2022 11:53
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Mola Yam posted:Like looking back to at least Howard/Keating, each election had some big poo poo or at least juicy leadership drama around it. Howard was extraordinarily small target in 1996, releasing very little policy detail and instead relying on his “Headland speeches” which set the general themes his government would follow, e.g. lower taxes, IR reform. His successful campaign was pretty much entirely based on the Labor government being tired and Paul Keating being an arsehole.
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May 9, 2022 12:08
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CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:TBH I had switched off from politics after the 2019 election and just being somewhat dumb to actually read some politics this morning - reading the "opinion" journalists were vomiting about the debate was brain damagingly stupid across the board. Has political reporting gotten worse or is this because I'm not terminally online and getting a fresh idea just how bad it's always been? https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-13/fact-check-is-it-perfectly-legal-to-lie-in-a-political-ad-/100511796 It was also always considered that the press would crucify any candidate who campaigned on falsehoods. This has never been so blatantly absent before. I had one of my exceedingly rare encounters with commercial TV recently and the LNP ads were 100% wall to wall falsehoods and lies. I was completely gob smacked. As little as ten years ago this would have been a major story for even the right wing press. Nowadays the ABC don't touch it. Can we skip to the part where Scumbo losses his seat, the election and Jenny tells him to sleep on Barnaby Joyce's couch already? Aunty Sherry Fisher-Tilberoo, 49, died of a suspected brain aneurysm in the Brisbane police watch house in the early hours of 10 September 2020 while being held on remand. According to the coroner, police failed to perform adequate physical checks of Fisher-Tiberoo before she died and at a pre-inquest directions hearing the coroner said: “There may be systematic issues with respect to the management of prisoners in watch houses.” The assistant police commissioner Brian Codd announced that an assistant watch house supervisor had been suspended after an internal police investigation into Fisher-Tilberoo’s death. The woman, who is not a sworn police officer, was stood down on full pay for alleged failures of duty “in relation to the performance of physical checks” and “related record keeping”. ISSUES RAISED Medical care required but not all given, procedures not all followed.
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May 9, 2022 12:26
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arguing something is not a dogwhistle but in the same breath stating what was said was utterly banal and designed to be unoffensive is a pretty big lol today trevor evans tried to engage with me and i called him a queerbashing piece of poo poo and he looked like a wounded puppy. member for brisbane, is a gay man, consistantly votes for the lnp's homophobia let alone transphobia.
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May 9, 2022 12:31
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lol, LNP running the creepy screaming kid from Vivarium.
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May 9, 2022 12:37
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May 9, 2022 12:38
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same
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May 9, 2022 12:44
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JBP posted:Earthworm Jim the soil he did crawl
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May 9, 2022 13:40
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Redezga posted:lol, LNP running the creepy screaming kid from Vivarium. Ha! That's perfect! 
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May 9, 2022 14:04
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Miss Broccoli posted:arguing something is not a dogwhistle but in the same breath stating what was said was utterly banal and designed to be unoffensive is a pretty big lol Good on you. Honestly, this kind of consequence is the only one these people ever see for this bullshit.
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May 10, 2022 01:06
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Miss Broccoli posted:arguing something is not a dogwhistle but in the same breath stating what was said was utterly banal and designed to be unoffensive is a pretty big lol he did not even say the exact dogwhistle phrase and the idea that albanese is secretly super-tuned into transphobe discourse enough that saying "adult female" (not even their phrase!) is a deliberate dogwhistle from him is absurd. secret committed transphobe albanese who is willing to do that (which only the deeply committed online minority of transphobes would recognise and again he didn't even say the actual phrase) but not actually concede ground on say, trans women in sports (which has been deliberately weaponised as an attempted wedge issue by morrison) is blatantly nonsensical. again, what did you want albanese to say? did you want him to turn it into a debate on trans rights out of the blue. what is the good answer on this, no one has come up with a response except "he should have rejected the question" which then comes off as an bizarre and overly combative response to the question. trans issues were not invoked and i am thankful for that. lih fucked around with this message at 02:22 on May 10, 2022 |
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May 10, 2022 02:18
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This almost seems quaint now given Morrison's pet ghoul decided to walk back her insincere apology for her transphobic poo poo and Morrison spent the morning unconditionally backing her for doing so, and they didn't even bother invoking the lie about it being about sports
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May 10, 2022 02:50
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lih posted:again, what did you want albanese to say? did you want him to turn it into a debate on trans rights out of the blue. what is the good answer on this, no one has come up with a response except "he should have rejected the question" which then comes off as an bizarre and overly combative response to the question. trans issues were not invoked and i am thankful for that. he could have respond with why he was being asked to define a basic word, and go from there. there is not a simple answer for you, because it really depends on how the questioner wants to reframe the question. and yes, i would like for him to take a stand if the questioner wanted to make it about trans people. trans issues are being debated in the media right now with or without albanese's input. silence from a major party leader isn't going to help things. it just leaves the other side to shape the discourse. trans people notice what is going on. it's not a debate that is happening quietly. we are talking about child mutilations today. perhaps the discussion would have been steered to something less hyperbolic if albanese was forced into the issue.
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May 10, 2022 03:21
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To me, it looks like Deves is just a canary the Liberals are sending down the coal mine to see just how much transphobia they can get away with. It's not like they should expect her to win - she's running in loving Warringah, Steggall already won a campaign against a social regressive - so she can say vile poo poo to rile up people on that side of the culture war, saving other Liberal candidates (who are more likely to win) from the shame of being openly transphobic but who still benefit from it being a topic. Which makes it extremely loving stupid as well as repulsive of Morrison to back her up, because the whole point from their side should be using a loser candidate to assess what's acceptable. I guess he believes in it, but the man used to work in advertising, so you would think he knows a little about image management.
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May 10, 2022 03:48
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Sierra Madre posted:To me, it looks like Deves is just a canary the Liberals are sending down the coal mine to see just how much transphobia they can get away with. It's not like they should expect her to win - she's running in loving Warringah, Steggall already won a campaign against a social regressive - so she can say vile poo poo to rile up people on that side of the culture war, saving other Liberal candidates (who are more likely to win) from the shame of being openly transphobic but who still benefit from it being a topic. I don't really think there's any grand plan behind Deves it's just a big dickhead pushing his barrow like everything else going on in the election. Feels like more of a meandering, lazy stupidity than any kind of concerted lib operation.
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May 10, 2022 03:51
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Sierra Madre posted:Which makes it extremely loving stupid as well as repulsive of Morrison to back her up, because the whole point from their side should be using a loser candidate to assess what's acceptable. I guess he believes in it, but the man used to work in advertising, so you would think he knows a little about image management. The Saturday paper reported that some libs think scomo is doing it because he thinks they’ll gain more votes in outer suburban seats than they’ll lose from inner city ones. Makes more sense to me than him being either principled or bad at political games.
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May 10, 2022 03:55
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Yeah maybe it's not a case of 5d chess genius political strategy and more a group of smooth brained bigots bungling up because they think they have the power of jesus and anime on their side.
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May 10, 2022 03:55
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Basically they’re after this guy, who probably doesn’t care about trans issues specifically but could be mobilised against cancel culture or ‘wokeism’ with a bit of well-placed bigotryage article about uap in vic posted:The 72-year-old Polish migrant, who trained as an electrical engineer and is now retired, says for most of his four decades in Australia he voted informally. But in the past six months he has started to support the UAP out of frustration at vaccine mandates, major parties which have “no accountability and no connection”, and “cancel culture”.
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May 10, 2022 04:03
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i already said that he should have pushed back if they tried to make it about trans people but they didn't, thankfully, so that's not relevant to the discussion. i am saying that i did not want albanese to turn the question into one on trans rights out of the blue (with no prompting) because that would have been far uglier - if that was forced by a follow-up or something then obviously but that's all irrelevant now because it didn't happen and then, if trans issues were not invoked by anyone after albanese giving some pushback initially, what should his response have been? refuse to answer (which would obviously come across badly)? i think the question being very weak attempt at a gotcha where albanese did not say anything trans-exclusionary and most people would have completely glossed over it all is much more preferable to our rights actively being debated and attacked in that shitshow of a debate. fwiw albanese has already been asked about deves' latest comments and condemned them as inappropriate and said that politicians should not be playing the politics of division over vulnerable people who deserve respect. not perfect (certainly, a stronger stand would be better) but it's certainly not the "secret terf albanese" that people are paranoid about. lua posted:Basically they’re after this guy, who probably doesn’t care about trans issues specifically but could be mobilised against cancel culture or ‘wokeism’ with a bit of well-placed bigotry yeah this sort of stuff is kinda what morrison & the libs are going for with deves, try to peel off socially conservative working class voters (especially in outer suburban seats) from labor while somehow hoping it doesn't do too much damage in their own urban socially progressive seats. doesn't really seem to be working very well though and i'd certainly hope it doesn't. but again, saying "adult female" doesn't mean poo poo to someone like that guy as a dogwhistle, "adult human female" only means anything to the hardcore online obsessive transphobes. lih fucked around with this message at 04:16 on May 10, 2022 |
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May 10, 2022 04:09
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The UAP guy handing out in Chisolm said he didn't like some policies but he was there for free speech. He was also, unsurprisingly, an ur-goon.
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May 10, 2022 04:15
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lih posted:i already said that he should have pushed back if they tried to make it about trans people but they didn't, thankfully, so that's not relevant to the discussion. you're being absolutely, totally disengenuous if you think the question wasn't already about trans women before it finished leaving her mouth. no point reading your post any further beyond that your framing is completely bunk.
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May 10, 2022 04:22
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"What is a woman" is a very high pitched noise that only particular animals can perceive easily.
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May 10, 2022 04:30
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we should argue about the purpose of the female woman question for another 5 or 6 pages I reckon we are near an answer.
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May 10, 2022 04:41
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