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Asehujiko posted:Who is currently capturing ground faster? Ukrainian counterattacks in the far north/south or the Russian push from Izyum? There's been pretty much no changes to the front line in the far south for weeks. Ukrainian gains near Kharkiv have been faster than Russia gains in the Donbas, but the latter is the critical theater and has way more troops involved.
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May 12, 2022 11:46
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Yeah idk if those weeks of "basically stalled" assessments from ISW, UK MoD etc weren't a bit misleading. I can't see the future (whose army / econ / ammo supply etc runs out first), the relative loss rates, and idk how many tonks are a good trade for some eastern Ukrainian hamlet, but Russians seem to have been making very small but pretty steady gains in Donbas over the last weeks and I can't tell if they're gonna peter out before the Ukrainians for example have to pull out of Severodonetsk or what that city is called.
aphid_licker fucked around with this message at 12:31 on May 12, 2022 |
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May 12, 2022 12:28
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EasilyConfused posted:There's been pretty much no changes to the front line in the far south for weeks. Seeing some reports that Ukraine pulled out of Rubizhne https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1524707005910462464?s=20&t=vMBwIpE4KcTttvbGc_57Ew
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May 12, 2022 12:40
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aphid_licker posted:Yeah idk if those weeks of "basically stalled" assessments from ISW, UK MoD etc weren't a bit misleading. I can't see the future (whose army / econ / ammo supply etc runs out first), the relative loss rates, and idk how many tonks are a good trade for some eastern Ukrainian hamlet, but Russians seem to have been making very small but pretty steady gains in Donbas over the last weeks and I can't tell if they're gonna peter out before the Ukrainians for example have to pull out of Severodonetsk or what that city is called. I think Russia will probably manage to take over almost all of the Donbas at the cost of a ridiculous amount of personnel and equipment. What remains to be seen is if they can recover fast enough to fight off the large number of fresh Ukrainians arriving with NATO equipment in June to take it back.
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May 12, 2022 12:45
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aphid_licker posted:Yeah idk if those weeks of "basically stalled" assessments from ISW, UK MoD etc weren't a bit misleading. I can't see the future (whose army / econ / ammo supply etc runs out first), the relative loss rates, and idk how many tonks are a good trade for some eastern Ukrainian hamlet, but Russians seem to have been making very small but pretty steady gains in Donbas over the last weeks and I can't tell if they're gonna peter out before the Ukrainians for example have to pull out of Severodonetsk or what that city is called. Going clockwise along the front, only looking at russian advances, In the last month the frontline has moved about 10 km south from Izyum, 15 km around zarichne, 2 km at Sievierodonetsk, 4 km at Popasna. I don't think basically stalled is misleading. catfry fucked around with this message at 13:55 on May 12, 2022 |
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May 12, 2022 13:52
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psydude posted:I think Russia will probably manage to take over almost all of the Donbas at the cost of a ridiculous amount of personnel and equipment. What remains to be seen is if they can recover fast enough to fight off the large number of fresh Ukrainians arriving with NATO equipment in June to take it back. Fresh Ukrainians? What does their manpower reserve look like? I had assumed, without any sourcing, that the majority of Ukraine’s armed forces were already committed to the fight. I know NATO is providing fresh modern equipment. I thought it was modernizing their existing forces. I wasn’t aware that Ukraine had the manpower to utilize it in addition to existing equipment.
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May 12, 2022 14:02
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catfry posted:Lets review the last month, according to liveuamap (Btw tomorrow is the 1 month anniversary of the sinking of the Moskva). Idk, maybe I'm the only idiot who reads "basically" stalled as "stalled", but given that we don't know when they'll grind to a halt it's not great to see. Seriously thanks for looking up the actual numbers though, I didn't know how to do that.
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May 12, 2022 14:06
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Crini posted:Fresh Ukrainians? What does their manpower reserve look like? I'd gotten the impression that Ukraine has committed most of it's standing forces but that the reservists mobilized in the first few days have been training and standing up fresh units in the western regions.
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May 12, 2022 14:11
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Soylent Pudding posted:I'd gotten the impression that Ukraine has committed most of it's standing forces but that the reservists mobilized in the first few days have been training and standing up fresh units in the western regions. This.
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May 12, 2022 14:13
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Russia is limited in the number of forces it can raise and commit due to internal politics. While Ukraine is significantly smaller, there is no serious pushback against full mobilization and a commitment to a Total War footing.
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May 12, 2022 14:28
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aphid_licker posted:Idk, maybe I'm the only idiot who reads "basically" stalled as "stalled", but given that we don't know when they'll grind to a halt it's not great to see. Seriously thanks for looking up the actual numbers though, I didn't know how to do that. https://liveuamap.com, and then click 'time' and select a date. Then I just eyeball the difference, it might be off by some kms here and there. Who knows how liveuamap gets their data and how trustworthy it is, but it seems to follow along with all the other twitter nerd maps pretty well. Crini posted:Fresh Ukrainians? What does their manpower reserve look like? With all the moving around, refugees and volunteers and the statistics including occupied territory, who knows, but basic demographics from before the war says Ukraine has 8,5 million people between the ages of 18 and 45. It's also unknown to what degree Ukraine has decided to go to a total war mode. I know they haven't called up every able bodied person, they are still being selective, but it seems like there ought to be a very large pool of raw manpower. I think they are limited in equipment and trained forces, not fresh recruits.
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May 12, 2022 14:38
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Soylent Pudding posted:I'd gotten the impression that Ukraine has committed most of it's standing forces but that the reservists mobilized in the first few days have been training and standing up fresh units in the western regions. How long does that take or I guess how long should it take? I realize this is a question that varies based on available options and need so maybe more what does it look like from historical examples?
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May 12, 2022 14:50
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We're dunking a lot on what the Russians would be able to generate via general mobilization so hopefully the Ukrainian reserves are better than that. I want them to win hard but I'm also trying to stay realistic / off the hopium.
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May 12, 2022 15:26
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aphid_licker posted:We're dunking a lot on what the Russians would be able to generate via general mobilization so hopefully the Ukrainian reserves are better than that. I want them to win hard but I'm also trying to stay realistic / off the hopium. There's a massive 'Basic Training' push going on in the West, with some troops even getting training on systems and weapons in Poland and elsewhere in the EU. Not to mention Ukraine continues to have excellent access to supplies and logistics as well as repair, Russia cannot likely generate that even with a general mobilization.
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May 12, 2022 15:37
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https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1524742847664173057
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May 12, 2022 15:39
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I imagine that once the Kyiv front collapsed the Ukrainians realized that they were going to have enough time to train their forces, and in the past months learn that they would have modern systems to equip them with. I expect that they'll be trained on an accelerated, but not abbreviated schedule. I saw some footage of a Ukrainian crew running an m777 gun yesterday. They were only managing about a round per minute, but they were running the gun drill without errors. Those videos you've seen of American crews operating at breakneck speeds aren't a fair comparison, as the NCO in charge of the crew might have as much as a decade of experience and the rest of the crew averages out to several years of experience each. Even the greenest guy on the team has more experience than the most seasoned Ukrainian can possibly have at this point. They're motivated learners. They'll get up to speed quickly.
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May 12, 2022 15:48
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Fuuuuck me. That's a goddamned disaster. The only worse case would be if AA assets, airpower, and artillery tasked with supporting that crossing were lost. Good thing the RF didn't do that. That job was exactly my father's job in the Bundeswehr. At a certain point, he asked the ranking NCO what would happen should war break out. "One week, we lose all the bridging equipment. The next, all the other vehicles. Then, we are light infantry. After that, we fit in where we can. Maybe one month until combat ineffective. The saboteurs might last longer." "So, it's not looking good." "No, Gefreiter, it's not. Now help me move these demo charges, please."
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May 12, 2022 16:00
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Love that he was willing to consider himself not combat ineffective sans all his vehicles 
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May 12, 2022 16:02
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aphid_licker posted:We're dunking a lot on what the Russians would be able to generate via general mobilization so hopefully the Ukrainian reserves are better than that. I want them to win hard but I'm also trying to stay realistic / off the hopium. I think the fact that they're not throwing fresh units into the fight is a good sign that those units should be able to make this account of themselves when they do get committed. Ukraine has seen firsthand what happens when you send green conscripts in poorly-led units with unfamiliar equipment into battle. Hopefully they're trying to avoid those same mistakes. Also, Ukraine giving up a village here and there is vastly preferable to losing good fighting men to defend a random village. The real question isn't how many villages Russia is taking in a week, it's what blood they're paying to take them vs how much blood the Ukrainians had to spend to show them down.
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May 12, 2022 16:07
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 That is loving impressive. That is highway of death level of kills.
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May 12, 2022 16:08
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CommieGIR posted:
Rolling down the highway of death looked just like that. I was a platoon sergeant and just seeing wreck after wreck after smoking wreck as we drove by in our hummer was so loving brutal.
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May 12, 2022 16:26
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Humbug Scoolbus posted:Rolling down the highway of death looked just like that. I was a platoon sergeant and just seeing wreck after wreck after smoking wreck as we drove by in our hummer was so loving brutal. Yeah, and much like that, I refuse to believe many crews walked away from this.
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May 12, 2022 16:27
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aphid_licker posted:Love that he was willing to consider himself not combat ineffective sans all his vehicles Dude was a nut. Very, "Kill Ivan good. Nein?!" Got "retired" for hiding the bridge part of an AVLB. Tank broke during maneuvers, and he secreted the bridge as "broken", where no one would see it. Just in case. Also, "lost" years' supply of mattocks and shovels into a building, just in case. Farmers gonna farmer, even in the military. Ever go into a country house basement and see bottles stacked up against the wall? It's that guy.
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May 12, 2022 16:27
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madeintaipei posted:Fuuuuck me. That's a goddamned disaster. The only worse case would be if AA assets, airpower, and artillery tasked with supporting that crossing were lost. Good thing the RF didn't do that. I'm concerned that the Russians might have taken out the Ukrainian artillery with counter-battery fire, and successfully crossed the river afterwards. Some reports from today point in that direction. The counter-battery fire is my conjecture, but that they established a successful bridgehead isn't.
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May 12, 2022 16:29
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Hannibal Rex posted:I'm concerned that the Russians might have taken out the Ukrainian artillery with counter-battery fire, and successfully crossed the river afterwards. Some reports from today point in that direction. The counter-battery fire is my conjecture, but that they established a successful bridgehead isn't. I kinda doubt that. Because even if they had, they apparently have no capitalized on the crossing anyways, so I suspect most of it already got wiped out.
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May 12, 2022 16:31
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https://twitter.com/tomaburque/status/1524762452126175234
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May 12, 2022 16:38
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You're not going to see that many destroyed vehicles if there was effective counter battery fire. Edit: 500? Jesus, that's basically a whole BTG that just ceased to exist.
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May 12, 2022 16:38
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Should be easy to verify if there's a pontoon bridge up right now - that would seem to indicate that the Ukrainians can no longer contest the crossing, for example due to losing their arty.
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May 12, 2022 16:39
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A.o.D. posted:You're not going to see that many destroyed vehicles if there was effective counter battery fire. Yeah, there's no way an effective force survived the crossing to try again.
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May 12, 2022 16:44
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That map insert is placed completely wrong. This river is all the way in the East of the country. Regarding a second crossing, this tweet says the Ukrainians reported some Russians crossed the river this night. https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1524605123175063552
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May 12, 2022 16:53
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It's not great to lose about 1% of your forces in one attempted river crossing. Highway of Death was just massive, though, by comparison: 
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May 12, 2022 16:53
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mlmp08 posted:It's not great to lose about 1% of your forces in one attempted river crossing. They were still cleaning it up in 2008 at least.
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May 12, 2022 17:10
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catfry posted:That map insert is placed completely wrong. This river is all the way in the East of the country. https://livingatlas.arcgis.com/wayback/#active=16245&ext=38.20056,48.93505,38.26793,48.96120&localChangesOnly=true
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May 12, 2022 17:21
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Loezi posted:There's a bit of uncertainty whether the ratification would theoretically require a simple majority or a 2/3 majority in the parliament. The latter is needed in cases of a non-trivial transfer of sovereignty to an international body. Think joining the EU. Joining NATO probably doesn't count, but there's no precedent to rely on, as this part of the constitution was rewritten in only 2012. There's a Constitutional Law Committee that decides in the end, but they can only say what they think once they have the actual paperwork in front of them. Current count is 156 in support, over 3 quarters, so that question should be a non-issue. 10 against, mostly in the the Left Alliance, only party that is slightly against. 18 undecided and 16 unknown. Edit: But the cabinet ministers of Left Alliance have received a mandate to approve the membership application. Saukkis fucked around with this message at 17:28 on May 12, 2022 |
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May 12, 2022 17:22
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ASAPI posted:They were still cleaning it up in 2008 at least. I know there was some still left in 03 for sure.
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May 12, 2022 17:25
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Saukkis posted:Current count is 156 in support, over 3 quarters, so that question should be a non-issue. 10 against, mostly in the the Left Alliance, only party that is slightly against. 18 undecided and 16 unknown. And even for self-identified left alliance voters in the latest poll by the national broadcaster YLE, majority supported the membership application to my understanding. The parliamentary group has been more cautious than the field probably is.
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May 12, 2022 17:28
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https://twitter.com/neilphauer/status/1524707157811281922?s=21&t=1WnLJZrnny_aK8OvqhBfYw
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May 12, 2022 17:56
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mlmp08 posted:It's not great to lose about 1% of your forces in one attempted river crossing. I feel like I’ve seen so many documentaries about this but I can never recall how this came to be, probably because it’s so unbelievable. The Iraqi forces were retreating out of Baghdad and we just used air power to destroy their whole convoy? Didn’t the US stop halfway through or something as news got out that it was a slaughter, but then kept going?
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May 12, 2022 18:24
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catfry posted:Regarding a second crossing, this tweet says the Ukrainians reported some Russians crossed the river this night. Yeah, my apprehensions were due to that tweet, and another guy's conjecture who apparently got two Ukrainian villages mixed up.
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May 12, 2022 18:31
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It was a retreating army, not a surrendering army. We stopped because we were worried about the optics, not because it was an illegal target. That convoy consisted of many stolen vehicles laden with goods looted from Kuwait.
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May 12, 2022 18:32
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