(Thread IKs:
fart simpson)
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Mirello posted:yeah, in bj they did something similar with all the children and adults. it's just unemployed elderly who get a free pass. Yeah the thing is if China pivots tons of people are going to lose their jobs, the economy isn't going to do well and also millions of people will die of covid.
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May 13, 2022 08:10
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exmarx posted:the key difference with china is that they've got a lot more depth in state capacity, but it's possible they could reach a tipping point. Sounds to me like China has a government that hasn't been hollowed out by the demands of Capitalism
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May 13, 2022 08:40
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genericnick posted:Yeah the thing is if China pivots tons of people are going to lose their jobs, the economy isn't going to do well and also millions of people will die of covid. KomradeX posted:Sounds to me like China has a government that hasn't been hollowed out by the demands of Capitalism i really really hope China succeeds with covid zero, for all our sakes.
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May 13, 2022 08:44
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hard to dismiss the idea that part of the motivation behind forcing COVID to thrive in waves across the Western world is so that it'll act as a constant assault on China
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May 13, 2022 08:46
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gradenko_2000 posted:I'll humor Mirello by saying that you could probably do something like a permanent mask mandate, strict ventilation/filtration standards, and a permanent reduction in indoor capacity limits and keep COVID down to something you might call an "acceptable" level of always sitting below 1.0 r-naught, but: Surely this is largely a feature of the power of capital in the west exploiting opportunities to go open biden and undermine restrictions further? I'm not sure if China should abandon their covid zero strategy, but I don't think it should be expected that them allowing some level of circulating covid with ongoing restrictions will cascade into surrendering completely through B), for the same reasons that they have been pursuing a zero covid policy in the first place (ie. they have a strong central government and public support/expectation of collective action)
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May 13, 2022 09:36
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I think that the lack of any historically significant negative event in living memory (in the USA at least) makes people have this conceptual baseline that "Nature Is Balanced" Like if we just don't disturb things, then the situation won't get worse. What I mean is there's no exogenous perturbations. Bad stuff seemed to always comes from human choices. But now, we are in a situation that is worse than before. much worse. We have to choose increased death with a strained economy, or saving lives with an even more strained economy. There is no "correct choice" that gets us back to where we started.
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May 13, 2022 09:44
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Your house burned down, you don't have insurance, and that's it. no one comes to save you, there's no justice. Your situation is just now much worse than moments ago and you cannot count on the universe to reset itself. It's not a doomer mindset but most people I talk to think "things will get back to normal soon". no this is the new normal and it's not a side-grade, we have to work hard for a generation to acclimate to it.
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May 13, 2022 09:47
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crepeface posted:i was in the final bastion in maybe all of "The West" to have tight borders (and 0 cases along with restrictions). we had massive vaccination rates but when we opened up we got hit hard. we were supposed to be past the peak a month ago with ~10k cases but today: it’s the same in south australia. we had 4 deaths in total between March 2020 and November 2021 (when we opened up). I remember one of the early days when we first opened up and there were news reports that were like “our total pandemic death toll doubled yesterday”. we also eliminated the flu by accident and now that’s gonna come back with a vengeance this winter. I think there was some modelling suggesting that China would have a million or so deaths if they just fully abandoned a zero strategy which makes all of the US news articles urging them to do so a bit gross but I imagine that if they were to pivot to a non-zero strategy they would be a little more planned and controlled than our abrupt change lol
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May 13, 2022 10:14
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Vladimir Poutine posted:it’s the same in south australia. we had 4 deaths in total between March 2020 and November 2021 (when we opened up). I remember one of the early days when we first opened up and there were news reports that were like “our total pandemic death toll doubled yesterday”. we also eliminated the flu by accident and now that’s gonna come back with a vengeance this winter. That estimate is like 1.6 million deaths, yeah. Given the population of China, the estimate might have been made with the assumption a bunch of restrictions still in place rather than going full Open Biden (but I haven't looked into it). For the sake of comparison, India did completely fail to contain the virus and the estimated death toll from that is like 4 or 5 millions.
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May 13, 2022 10:19
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Kassad posted:That estimate is like 1.6 million deaths, yeah. Given the population of China, the estimate might have been made with the assumption a bunch of restrictions still in place rather than going full Open Biden (but I haven't looked into it). For the sake of comparison, India did completely fail to contain the virus and the estimated death toll from that is like 4 or 5 millions. Seems kind of weird to give a definitive number without a time period. It's not like covid goes away once you get the first million deaths in.
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May 13, 2022 10:25
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genericnick posted:Seems kind of weird to give a definitive number without a time period. It's not like covid goes away once you get the first million deaths in. the estimate was made for a single omicron wave projected to last from march to september. you can just read the study. it's not long
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May 13, 2022 10:27
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genericnick posted:Seems kind of weird to give a definitive number without a time period. It's not like covid goes away once you get the first million deaths in. 1,000,000 is the universally agreed on number where it gets too large to comprehend and now you need to shut the gently caress up because it's both abstract and also just statistics, and anyone who does die is a anti-vaxx chud who was also probably extremely fat and not responsible.
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May 13, 2022 10:45
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R. Guyovich posted:the estimate was made for a single omicron wave projected to last from march to september. Ah, yeah. In their no NPI baseline scenario they get about a 100 million symptomatic cases and 1.6 million dead. Now, my dumb country got about a third of the population infected with, and tested positive for, Omicron, killing about 0.05%. Maybe I missed where they got their estimate for the symptomatic/asymptomatic ratio from, but that seems optimistic. Deaths seem quite a bit higher, but not unreasonably so, considering the different circumstances.
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May 13, 2022 12:23
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Considering the US has had over a million deaths, probably closer to two if not higher at this point, I can't believe if China went full Open Biden they'd only have a million more deaths that seems unfathomable to me
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May 13, 2022 13:30
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KomradeX posted:Considering the US has had over a million deaths, probably closer to two if not higher at this point, I can't believe if China went full Open Biden they'd only have a million more deaths that seems unfathomable to me They specifically only modeled one wave for whatever reason.
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May 13, 2022 13:33
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genericnick posted:They specifically only modeled one wave for whatever reason. Oh that is strange
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May 13, 2022 13:40
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KomradeX posted:Considering the US has had over a million deaths, probably closer to two if not higher at this point, I can't believe if China went full Open Biden they'd only have a million more deaths that seems unfathomable to me Without fudging the number America probably has had half a million death from the vanilla favor, 1 million from Delta and quarter mil from Omnicron. India's actual number is probably 3x that. China would have had same number as India if no lock down was implemented. I don't know how much of this 3-4 million theoretical death translate to lost of productivity in terms of man-hour.
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May 13, 2022 14:05
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stephenthinkpad posted:Without fudging the number America probably has had half a million death from the vanilla favor, 1 million from Delta and quarter mil from Omnicron. India's actual number is probably 3x that. China would have had same number as India if no lock down was implemented. dont forget disability!
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May 13, 2022 14:18
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gradenko_2000 posted:well it's been a little over 72 hours since the election, let's check in on how the liberals are handling it: Does Marcos even have any policies? What do you think his term is going to look like?
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May 13, 2022 14:50
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After passing the 40 billion Ukraine bill to gently caress Russia up, Biden has agree to invest 0.15 billion in ASEAN and I quote "in an attempt to counter China".
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May 13, 2022 14:50
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stephenthinkpad posted:After passing the 40 billion Ukraine bill to gently caress Russia up, Biden has agree to invest 0.15 billion in ASEAN and I quote "in an attempt to counter China". it passed? drat I thought Rams Paul held them up
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May 13, 2022 14:56
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quote:The new initiatives include $60mn for maritime co-operation, and the US will also deploy a coast guard ship to the region to enhance security co-operation. The Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies will create an institute to give three officials from each of the 10 Asean nations training in Washington every year. One whole coast guard ship, woah.
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May 13, 2022 14:58
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indigi posted:it passed? drat I thought Rams Paul held them up lol @ your government being legally able to like, overrule democratic organs of decision making
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May 13, 2022 15:01
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stephenthinkpad posted:Without fudging the number America probably has had half a million death from the vanilla favor, 1 million from Delta and quarter mil from Omnicron. India's actual number is probably 3x that. China would have had same number as India if no lock down was implemented. I remember December 2020 they were reporting over 950k from COVID, with the 2020 sending Skewing, but suddenly Biden gets in the White House and suddenly the number dropped by half.
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May 13, 2022 15:03
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indigi posted:it passed? drat I thought Rams Paul held them up Rand Paul can't stop the raging boner on Putin.
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May 13, 2022 15:08
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AnimeIsTrash posted:Does Marcos even have any policies? What do you think his term is going to look like? ratify the RCEP intensify the fighting against the CPP-NPA, no peace talks increase military/police infiltration into activist groups, labour groups, universities - more dead kids tagged as communist rebels more prosecution of the liberal / left media Judiciary is already completely stocked with Duterte appointees, so Marcos just appoints new ones to replace retirees people keep saying he's a "China puppet", but I'm pretty sure the US can bribe him hard enough to keep the US troops and bases here probably some tax cuts on the wealthy/corporate, tax increases on the working class minimum wage is gonna be completely stalled for another six years; probably also gonna see some more deregulation and the intensification of the gig economy education and general institutional knowledge is going to take a poo poo as he tries to revise popular history about his family big question mark is whether we'll get infrastructure projects for him to skim from (as facilitated by China), or if we don't because he's just not going to bother. Duterte was interested enough to do this, I don't know about Marcos COVID is another big question mark: the one concrete policy promise he ever made during the campaign period was "no more lockdowns", and I'm personally terrified that he's going to go full OPEN BIDEN. Duterte held the line on universal masking and no face-to-face classes but Marcos might just be stupid enough to throw it all away people are also assuming he's going to reform the Constitution, but I think not: Duterte couldn't do it, even with what might be considered a "supermajority" in Congress, and you can't ever do it because there's going to be too many competing interests, even among the rightist factions
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May 13, 2022 15:08
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Marcos is from the main island right? I thought fractions from the main island tend to be more "pro status quote" and less "anti US legacy Imperialism" like Duterte. Also, can you explain what constitution reform Duterte was trying to push?
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May 13, 2022 15:14
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stephenthinkpad posted:Marcos is from the main island right? I thought fractions from the main island tend to be more "pro status quote" and less "anti US legacy Imperialism" like Duterte. yes, Marcos is from Luzon, the large main island to the north. yes, Duterte is from Mindanao, the other large island to the south. regionalism was not really "a thing" in Philippine politics until Duterte came along, because he used it as a wedge issue: - "vote for me because I am from Mindanao just like you, and we have been dominated by Presidents from Luzon all this time" - "we need to put an end to 'Imperial Manila', where the capital scoops up all the national wealth and does not leave any for the rural provinces" (this was a lie, but an effective one) Duterte's anti-US rhetoric was mostly that, rhetoric, and was crafted to create yet another wedge issue. It was not driven by the fact that he came from Mindanao, because one of his most persistent stories of American imperialism was how they destroyed Manila in 1945 (while trying to 'liberate' it from the Imperial Japanese Army) I feel like Marcos is going to accept BRI projects from China just because they're offering and the US isn't, but I also think allegations of him being a Chinese puppet are overstated - he's going to keep the US presence in the Philippines, and the MIC will feed the AFP with enough arms to keep them happy (while they use the drones and M-16s to kill environmentalists) _ as for the constitutional reform that Duterte was trying to do: the sales pitch was "Federalism" - breaking up the country into a series of semi-autonomous states, with the promise that this would ensure that every region of the country would be able to develop as it should without edicts from "Imperial Manila" this was often combined with a promise of also shifting the country to a French or UK-style parliamentary system the "fear" pitch by the opposition was that the Constitution would be amended in such a way that Duterte would be able to stay as head-of-state (Prime Minister assuming the parliamentary part ever pushed through, for example) for longer than his originally plotted six-year term the real goal (IMO) was rewriting the Constitution to eliminate the provisions restricting foreign ownership of public utilities and education and media none of this ever panned out because assembling a Constitutional Convention means the entire Constitution is up for grabs - you can't say "okay, we are ONLY amending the part about foreign ownership", and nobody wants to trigger that because if you shift the country to a Federal or Parliamentary or both, suddenly a couple hundred Congressmen, and however many Governors, etc. etc., are all out of jobs and they don't want that I don't think Marcos is going to pursue Federalism/Parliament anymore - he MIGHT want to gently caress with term limits so he can run again (but also maybe not since there's enough of a dynasty after him), and he MIGHT want to look at the foreign ownership provisions again, but the Convention dynamics still remain, and all the reasons why nobody will want to pull that trigger will still remain
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May 13, 2022 15:52
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Crypto market crashing, Xi continues to be right
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May 13, 2022 16:02
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gradenko_2000 posted:Good write up. I think Erdogen went the other way and change from parliamentary system to a presidential system via referendum. Can Philippines does it with a referendum? Who gets to decide the constitution change, all the elected congressmen? Surely you can change the part about utility foreign ownership without constitution change? I feel the education and media ownership is a pro-US policy since China is more interesting in building ports and railroad and maybe telecom.
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May 13, 2022 16:40
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Kassad posted:One whole coast guard ship, woah. also training...to overthrow their democratically elected gov'ts? and for some perspective. 
GlassEye-Boy has issued a correction as of 16:51 on May 13, 2022 |
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May 13, 2022 16:48
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stephenthinkpad posted:I think Erdogen went the other way and change from parliamentary system to a presidential system via referendum. Can Philippines does it with a referendum? Who gets to decide the constitution change, all the elected congressmen? 1. it's possible to trigger Constitutional change via a "people's referendum", yes 2. the Constitution prescribes two forms of a Constitutional change: - a Constitutional Convention, where all the elected Congressmen + Senators get to decide what gets changed. Part of the thing that tore apart attemps at Constitutional change under Duterte was that the Senators did not agree to just be another 24 people among a body of 250+ legislators, since it diminished their power relatively - a Constitutional Assembly, where an election is held to select representatives specifically for the purpose of voting on Constitutional change 3. foreign ownership rules are complicated - there are parts of it that are spelled out in Constitution where it's "only a maximum of 40% foreign ownership, unless otherwise prescribed by law", and as of this year we've basically removed ownership rules for all industries where the law was structured that way - however, there are other parts that are spelled out as "only a maximum of 40% foreign ownership", period, and that's the stuff that can only be changed via Constitutional amendment 4. yes, the education and media parts are pretty much guaranteed to open it up to exploitation by Western/US corporations
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May 13, 2022 16:53
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stephenthinkpad posted:I think Erdogen went the other way and change from parliamentary system to a presidential system via referendum. all the libs voted for it and scolded the poo poo out of people who didnt. now many of them are behind bars! lol
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May 13, 2022 17:39
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https://twitter.com/telesurenglish/status/1524811912847970305?t=CgSK09xuQ7oVVO1RnZnM7A&s=19 whoops forgot to use the clutch
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May 13, 2022 18:23
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Buck Wildman posted:https://twitter.com/telesurenglish/status/1524811912847970305?t=CgSK09xuQ7oVVO1RnZnM7A&s=19 “over 40 slightly injured” lol
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May 13, 2022 21:00
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BrutalistMcDonalds posted:it was pointed out ITT that chinese planners seem to figure that even if it's costing you 10% of your economy to do the shanghai-type lockdowns, you're still coming out on top compared to letting covid go endemic that's the funny thing about the total lack of lockdown in the US and other places. bourgeoisie just screaming and crying because a lockdown will HURT their SMALL BUSINESSES, but in fact more total damage has certainly been done to private profits in america rather than private profits in china, because communist discipline is capable of forcing capital to look ahead and plan rather than obey its id in the face of every single stimulus. if you're thinking in terms of five-year plans, and the other guy is thinking in terms of financial quarters, then you are thinking twenty steps ahead of them
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May 13, 2022 21:07
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the price of opening her up is that a substantial underclass of immunocompromised people, their friends and families, and a whole lot of people just vaguely anxious about getting covid in general have completely dropped out of the service economy. they can't work those jobs and won't go to those places anymore so that much less economic activity is happening, replaced with people doing ubereats and instacart and amazon and so on the chinese alternative of just operating normally and then locking down for a few weeks twice a year or so is far less damaging to the metrics capitalist economies rely on, but that also requires centralized coordination (bad) and telling people to stop doing stuff (Venezuela communism 100 million iphone) so that is not an option. the actual logic of deciding which one works better was never in play
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May 13, 2022 21:26
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gradenko_2000 posted:
wow this duterte guy sounds like a real dick because we never did anything like that right right?
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May 13, 2022 21:33
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https://mobile.twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1525073585857077249
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May 13, 2022 21:34
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 The West just lusts for millions of dead Chinese to make it look like there wqnt more they could have done to protect their own citizens
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May 13, 2022 22:18
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