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I have a new test to determine whether a person is an NHL goalie: you flip a coin. It has a 99.99999979% false positive rate. But the false negative rate is only 50%! |
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May 13, 2022 14:15
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cruft posted:I asked my statistician friends about this, because it seems like if you have a yes/no test that's less than 50% accurate, it's actually doing a good job, you just need to take the inverse. If they mean it has 0% false positives and 37% 'accurate' detection (i.e. 63% false negatives) then you can just run it a lot of times and get a good result (assuming the failure rate is random and not caused by some reproducible attribute of the test-taker.) But if it had say 10% false positives and 63% false negatives then it gets close to useless because then if you keep redoing it it will always eventually 'detect'. You could eventually draw a meaningful conclusion from the ratio of pos to neg results with sufficient retests. If it had 37% false positives and 63% false negatives then it would be literally useless. Also fun is that if it's the only test you have, you can't even tell what the false positive or false negative rate is, because you don't know if the thing under test is a true positive or true negative, and the only way you can measure that is with the test that you don't know how reliable it is... |
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May 13, 2022 14:17
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cruft posted:I have a new test to determine whether a person is an NHL goalie: you flip a coin. Yeah, I don't think this is right. |
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May 13, 2022 14:34
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you are right that type of probability math is for drop rate and things that can happen multiple times not a test with possible false positives and negatives. I don't normally do that type of thing so I used a screw driver on a nail. Hey it kinda worked!
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May 13, 2022 14:37
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who thought we would get into statistics at this time of the day
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May 13, 2022 14:40
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I have lurked so hard that most of my bookmarks are in single- or double-digit unreads; now I must face the consequences and post. |
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May 13, 2022 14:41
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Ok math nerds you've had your fun. Nasal swabs aren't enough to reliably detect newer variants of covid, even when you're symptomatic, until you've been symptomatic for a few days. Nasal plus throat swabs will detect it earlier if you're symptomatic. It's not a statistical problem, it's a threshold and testing procedure problem. |
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May 13, 2022 14:46
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I'm not good at math but a coin toss just gives you a random result, whereas a disease or drug test (that's based on an actual chemical reaction or whatever) gives results based on different factors other than getting one side or another half the time. Chemical reactions and the like aren't perfect, and can end up giving inconclusive results sometimes, which is why lab tests are run multiple times in order to test for accuracy. |
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May 13, 2022 14:51
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hello |
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May 13, 2022 14:53
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gullnado orbs
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May 13, 2022 14:55
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Good morbning.
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May 13, 2022 16:11
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i am glad i live in an era where i can go to the grocery and purchase bok choy at a reasonable price and don't have to spend my whole life travelling to china just to get a taste of em
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May 13, 2022 16:50
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a roundabout way of saying yum i had a big bowl of fried bok choy for lunch hooray
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May 13, 2022 16:51
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I want Arby's but I'm still testing positive  I guess I'm eating pb&js and canned soup forever now
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May 13, 2022 18:03
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i'll toss ur coins iykwim
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May 13, 2022 19:30
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I'll can your soup iykwim it will last longer and you'll have it when you need it |
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May 13, 2022 20:16
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=517yf9XkQdk
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May 13, 2022 23:53
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Goons Are Great posted:who thought we would get into statistics at this time of the day I can easily believe six impossible things before breakfast, but statistics at this time of day? I never!
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May 14, 2022 02:57
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Robot Made of Meat posted:I can easily believe six impossible things before breakfast, but statistics at this time of day? 
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May 14, 2022 04:36
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I did a bunch of dancing and now I eat Graham crackers before bed |
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May 14, 2022 04:37
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aldantefax posted:I did a bunch of dancing and now I eat Graham crackers before bed I had a lemon meringue tart. I shouldn't have. I should forfeit sugar for the month, given that I ate half a cake a few weeks ago. But it's been an exhausting week and lemon meringue is so very tasty! Driving down the continent with a pistol in her lap |
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May 14, 2022 05:11
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aldantefax posted:I did a bunch of dancing and now I eat Graham crackers before bed I'm always suspicious of any product which was invented to stop masturbation.
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May 14, 2022 05:29
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Robot Made of Meat posted:I'm always suspicious of any product which was invented to stop masturbation. I can't say they're particularly effective though |
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May 14, 2022 06:05
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I don't think I've had a cat that likes this but I've seen others. My cat is a weird one that likes the against the grain followed by the quick smoothing out type of pat over a normal just single direction pat. But if you do pat him just one way you better not forget the tail! All the way! I've been told most cats don't like either of these. |
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May 14, 2022 10:24
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just saw this amazing video of a very proud and enduring cockatiel lady who finally manages to fulfill her dream of becoming a mommy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yAUhTPqESdk
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May 14, 2022 12:02
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Holy crap. Apparently this guy was called "Michael Jordan of Pizza Throwing" (thankfully in the article they hyperlink Michael Jordan in case you don't know who that is) |
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May 14, 2022 14:34
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pixaal posted:I don't think I've had a cat that likes this but I've seen others. My cat is a weird one that likes the against the grain followed by the quick smoothing out type of pat over a normal just single direction pat. a certain number of cats seem to love it when you grasp the base of their tail and pull upwards. obviously somewhat gently and not with all your might, but with some of them it can be firmly enough to lift their hind legs off the ground. the majority seem to hate this though, so you have to be kinda careful in determining whether a given cat is receptive to this.
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May 14, 2022 14:44
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every cat is a puzzle with teeth
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May 14, 2022 15:16
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Heather Papps posted:every cat is a puzzle with teeth Razor blades and needles |
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May 14, 2022 15:29
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Heather Papps posted:every cat is a puzzle with teeth 
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May 14, 2022 21:20
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The amount of work I am not getting done today is amazing.
Driving down the continent with a pistol in her lap |
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May 14, 2022 21:21
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xcheopis posted:The amount of work I am not getting done today is amazing. sounds like a good day. I thought you had a day job, you normally work saturdays? |
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May 14, 2022 21:23
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rear end-penny posted:sounds like a good day. I thought you had a day job, you normally work saturdays? I do have a day job and I don't work Saturdays! However. We had to pack up half the apartment because the landlord had Orkin go through the complex, all of which now needs to be put back or thrown out or packed up for storage AND I also have a lot of laundry AND I'm still sorting through stuff and packing things away from before the Orkin incident AND the storage space run by scummy scammers needs to be emptied (which is a lot of trips with the ol' shopping cart) AND I need to wash a few dishes (not many but effort) AND do general cleaning in general. I am currently eating my third peach of the day and contemplating another nap. None of the above chores have even been started. Driving down the continent with a pistol in her lap |
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May 14, 2022 21:32
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xcheopis posted:I do have a day job and I don't work Saturdays! sure, procrastination. it's something I excel at. good luck friend! |
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May 14, 2022 21:43
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ooh i should buy some peaches maybe
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May 14, 2022 21:44
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rear end-penny posted:sure, procrastination. it's something I excel at. good luck friend! I'm also not working on my procrastination dissertation. biosterous posted:ooh i should buy some peaches maybe Stone fruit season is upon us! Driving down the continent with a pistol in her lap |
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May 14, 2022 21:45
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anytime there's extra stuff, in addition to my weekly tasks, it becomes a whole thing. I'm barely confident I'm going to get my weekly stuff done. there's a tree in my backyard that is neigh dead, I don't think I've seen any buds in it's branches at all this year, and I knew it was dying last year, and this winter posted about it losing bark... some helpful goon here in the WH&C thread linked me an article that really drove home the message that the tree is in sad shape. anyway, I've known for months I need to have someone come look at it, tell me if there's any hope of treatment or if I should just cut it down. a quick internet search and a phone call away and I could have that project on the calendar and moving but 
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May 14, 2022 22:01
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gonna start describing productive days as "3 peach days"
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May 14, 2022 22:03
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The one good thing about the Orkin stuff is that I started tossing some stuff and I'm about to toss more, if I can get myself up and moving. Mostly just old pans that are really not useful at all and old clothes that don't fit but are in decent shape and maybe a box of them out on the sidewalk will be of use to any of the plethora of homeless people in this neighborhood. That sort of thing. Free up some space.
Driving down the continent with a pistol in her lap |
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May 14, 2022 22:12
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| # ? Jun 4, 2024 07:34 |
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Heather Papps posted:gonna start describing productive days as "3 peach days" lol Driving down the continent with a pistol in her lap |
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May 14, 2022 22:12
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