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Kikas posted:There is the Kaliningrad Oblast question - that territory is basically a stationary aircraft carrier. 80% of people living there are army/government officials and their families tasked with keeping the military presence of Russia in the area. It's a very important base for Baltic Sea access, it allows for pressure on Lithuania and Estionia, blocks off Polish access to a bit of our bay (but we got around that and are digging a channel), and well is a good spying position. There is very little production or farming in the area - they import most of their goods because it's a big military base. 80% part is pure bullshit, you dont know what are you talking about. It is an incredibly important and highly protected territory but it is not just a giant base.
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May 19, 2022 10:56
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I bought a cool ceramics art thing from a lady in Kaliningrad that cleared the customs here just before the war kicked off lol She's been silent on Instagram after putting up an anti war post in the hours after it kicked off and I'm a bit worried I assume she's not manning a T-90 in Izyum rn tho
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May 19, 2022 12:04
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aphid_licker posted:I bought a cool ceramics art thing from a lady in Kaliningrad that cleared the customs here just before the war kicked off lol Instagram is banned in Russia. Businesses had to switch to other platforms, because most people don't use VPN.
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May 19, 2022 12:10
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DandyLion posted:Yeah this all seems like the obvious next step for putin/russia to begin pushing real hard on the US Conservative apparatus (namely those indebted to putin) with the intent of getting the US to pull out of Ukrainian support/NATO with a hopeful republican victory in 2024. What we're seeing is the beginnings of that mobilization. This is going to be a real test of European power, it's more and more obvious by the day that the USA is compromised and cannot fulfil its traditional role anymore. The GOP has gone insane.
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May 19, 2022 12:12
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HonorableTB posted:For a long time, the nuclear arming codes to the US arsenal as transmitted from the president were all zeroes. The nuke forces here are also prone to the missilemen having worsened mental health due to the isolation they have in the missile commands. The US forces are probably better maintained and all compared to Russia but the US strategic forces are by no means tip top 100%
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May 19, 2022 12:15
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Magugu posted:Vilerat ran the Goon version of the state department in Eve, while working for the real state department. From what I understand he was on comms doing his space job, when the shooting started in Bengazi. RIP Vilerat. I can't remember if it was a dream or a memory, but I have the audio in my head him saying there's gunshots outside the room and went to investigate never to return.
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May 19, 2022 12:36
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Humphreys posted:RIP Vilerat. I can't remember if it was a dream or a memory, but I have the audio in my head him saying there's gunshots outside the room and went to investigate never to return. He was on jabber. He had talked about the guards taking pics and said something like "assuming I don't die tonight," then later "gently caress, gunfire" and that was the last we heard of him.
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May 19, 2022 13:03
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Humphreys posted:RIP Vilerat. I can't remember if it was a dream or a memory, but I have the audio in my head him saying there's gunshots outside the room and went to investigate never to return. I can't recall what he was going to do, whether it was go for a wander, or get back in touch on Jabber later, but I believe his last comms were something like "... thats if we don't all die tonight. A security guard has been spotted taking photos of the compound." And then a little while later just three words... "Oh poo poo, gunfire..." Then he was gone. e.f.b.
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May 19, 2022 13:14
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Zedsdeadbaby posted:This is going to be a real test of European power, it's more and more obvious by the day that the USA is compromised and cannot fulfil its traditional role anymore. The GOP has gone insane. I uh, don't think Europe has to worry too much about that. Russia managed to get just one Senator to even attempt to hold things up with the Ukrainian aid. The CPAC people have zero influence on things that matter.
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May 19, 2022 13:18
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Kchama posted:I uh, don't think Europe has to worry too much about that. Russia managed to get just one Senator to even attempt to hold things up with the Ukrainian aid. The CPAC people have zero influence on things that matter. Trump is gonna withdraw the us from nato day one when he’s back in office in 2025. They’re already setting up the players to ensure no vote happens, withdrawing from an alliance is small potatoes.
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May 19, 2022 13:55
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2025: Trump withdraws the US from NATO. 2029: the US applies to rejoin NATO, but is blocked by Turkey for assholish reasons.
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May 19, 2022 14:01
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deathbysnusnu posted:Trump is gonna withdraw the us from nato day one when he’s back in office in 2025. They’re already setting up the players to ensure no vote happens, withdrawing from an alliance is small potatoes. Trump is a coward, and withdrawing from NATO would require him to actually commit to something.
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May 19, 2022 14:11
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deathbysnusnu posted:Trump is gonna withdraw the us from nato day one when he’s back in office in 2025. They’re already setting up the players to ensure no vote happens, withdrawing from an alliance is small potatoes. He won't, because he's already forgotten about wanting to withdraw from NATO, and Putin is no longer the GOP pal for him to hang out with and be influenced by.
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May 19, 2022 14:12
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It was surreal being up that night learning about major world events in goonswarm jabber and then seeing the news catching up to what was being talked about in our video game comms. RIP Vile Rat Never don't shoot blues
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May 19, 2022 14:33
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This (very) new account popped up, I can’t verify authenticity. It could be related to the CanadianUkrainian volunteer fan fic guy, but we shall see. quote:the list of losses that the regime of the Russian Federation inflicted on me personally: Start of thread https://mobile.twitter.com/muminfighter/status/1526741756087246848 https://mobile.twitter.com/muminfighter/status/1526742698383888384
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May 19, 2022 14:56
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Deformed Church posted:Russian nukes not working doesn't sound cool at all. Nuclear UXO landing in all the wrong places. "who's trying to dismantle a dodgy russian nuke today" isn't the guessing game I want to be playing.
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May 19, 2022 15:00
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HonorableTB posted:For a long time, the nuclear arming codes to the US arsenal as transmitted from the president were all zeroes. The nuke forces here are also prone to the missilemen having worsened mental health due to the isolation they have in the missile commands. The US forces are probably better maintained and all compared to Russia but the US strategic forces are by no means tip top 100% I think people are talking about the actual viability of Russia's nuke and not the quality of their launch security or missile operators. From what I understand the argument is that maintaining nukes is pretty dang expensive and Russia's military budget is much too small, even after accounting for the large difference in purchasing power, to maintain what they're publicly claiming. My take on it is that even if only half the warheads (heck even only 1/10th) claimed are really viable (that is, they won't just do a atomic fizzle) that'd still be horrible if they're launched so its not sensible to be dismissive here of Russia's nuclear capabilities. edit: \/\/\/\/\/ It'd still be a big explosion but more in line with a conventional bomb than a nuke or thermonuclear bomb. Basically its bad (explosion still happens + radioactive material is getting everywhere) but its nowhere near as bad as it would've been if it didn't fizzle. PC LOAD LETTER fucked around with this message at 15:25 on May 19, 2022 |
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May 19, 2022 15:12
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If I recall correctly, even a 'fizzle' on a nuke is incredibly destructive and will leave behind even more fallout. But you are correct that even if only 10% are functional, it is enough to cause the most destructive event in human history.
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May 19, 2022 15:23
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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:If I recall correctly, even a 'fizzle' on a nuke is incredibly destructive and will leave behind even more fallout. But you are correct that even if only 10% are functional, it is enough to cause the most destructive event in human history. They also have a massive inventory, so its safe to assume that most of them work fine. But as it is, let's move on from clancychat, please.
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May 19, 2022 15:33
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deathbysnusnu posted:Trump is gonna withdraw the us from nato day one when he’s back in office in 2025. They’re already setting up the players to ensure no vote happens, withdrawing from an alliance is small potatoes. It's good to have a contingency plan for matters of critical national / international security like that, even besides Trump being so unpredictable that well-educated people have guessed "what would Trump have done if he were president right now" ranged from "nuke Moscow, assassinate Putin" to "nuke the whales" to "nuke Kyiv, assassinate Zelensky" and everything in between. Also "Putin" passes my computer's spell check, but Zelensky and Zelenskyy do not. Thanks for supporting Russia, APPLE DICTIONARY.
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May 19, 2022 15:42
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https://mobile.twitter.com/NPA_English/status/1527001665450217474 Russia is pulling troops from Syria to fuel the war in Ukraine.
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May 19, 2022 15:45
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Hope this doesn't lead to another flareup in Syria.
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May 19, 2022 16:14
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Information is trickling out of the east https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1527298231809417223?s=20&t=3ub9tlyc73oL-skHyZCG6A Harrowing and moving read about the work of a medic in Mariupol. CW for video of war injuries, documentation of crimes against civilians, usual war stuff https://twitter.com/nixonron/status/1527265691400691712?s=20&t=3ub9tlyc73oL-skHyZCG6A quote:On March 15, a police officer handed over the small data card to a team of Associated Press journalists who had been documenting atrocities in Mariupol, including a Russian airstrike on a maternity hospital. The office contacted Taira on a walkie-talkie, and she asked the journalists to take the card safely out of the city. The card was hidden inside a tampon, and the team passed through 15 Russian checkpoints before reaching Ukrainian-controlled territory. UK MOD briefing says that some Russian military high ups did in fact get fired https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1527286819871567880?s=20&t=Rl61IKJ7MWLzLPUTiWGhfw Ongoing US 'Defense Official' briefing - sounds like Russia is running light in the northern Donbas and that may be why they're having better success in the more southern moves https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1527300280496562176?s=20&t=3ub9tlyc73oL-skHyZCG6A https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1527301312726958081?s=20&t=3ub9tlyc73oL-skHyZCG6A https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1527303456888803331?s=20&t=3ub9tlyc73oL-skHyZCG6A
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May 19, 2022 16:18
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Zhanism posted:Is the woman's voice the in plane computer system audio warning? Like pull up warning? I watched a documentary long ago about the development of a (military) helicopter, and they said for emergency, cannot-ignore type audio warning like this they deliberately use a motherly female voice. Apparently that kind of voice is the one most likely to be noticed by the pilot in an emergency situation. They spent quite a lot of effort recording the right person and right intonation that conveyed "hey, Mom wants your attention right now, young man".
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May 19, 2022 16:24
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KitConstantine posted:Ongoing US 'Defense Official' briefing - sounds like Russia is running light in the northern Donbas and that may be why they're having better success in the more southern moves If you think about what the estimated ~30% casualties would mean, even with replacements, those are going to be really concentrated in the fraction of the force that was front line infantry and tanks. Meanwhile the artillery and support units, which lagged far behind at first, are going to be closer to full strength, and Russia has no shortage of soviet artillery. As they run low on riflemen, it is going to make a lot more sense to try creep up artillery and blast away resistance under shells. This probably explains why the UA is attacking East of Kharkiv. The last thing you want to do is march infantry into well prepared artillery firing lines, but artillery needs lots of supplies and is not very mobile, so if you can cut roads you can make forward positions untenable without having to attack them.
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May 19, 2022 16:36
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Hobnob posted:I watched a documentary long ago about the development of a (military) helicopter, and they said for emergency, cannot-ignore type audio warning like this they deliberately use a motherly female voice. Apparently that kind of voice is the one most likely to be noticed by the pilot in an emergency situation. Another explanation I've heard is that a female voice will stick out among all-male radio chatter. Canadians however seem to prefer a British aristocrat: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H2zB7Z-b6Kc ("T6 NL", "gear not down")
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May 19, 2022 16:39
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Kikas posted:Eh, not that difficult - it's just a regular explosive that blasts two parts of radioactive material against eachother. Wedge a plank between the two halves of the payload and you're basically safe. Modern nukes use implosion, not slamming two halves together. It's an extremely finely timed process and yanking random wires is pretty much guaranteed to turn it into a modest dirty bomb at worst. But if the missile manages to get past the boost phase I suspect the warheads will be self-defusing courtesy the multiple km per second reentry speed. Blue Footed Booby fucked around with this message at 16:58 on May 19, 2022 |
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May 19, 2022 16:44
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Blue Footed Booby posted:Modern nukes use implosion, not slamming two halves together. It's an extremely finely timed process and yanking random wires is pretty much guaranteed to turn it into a modest dirty bomb at worst. But it doesn't matter, a reentry vehicle that doesn't explode disintegrates when it hits the ground, and the explosives will detonate from the impact in a haphazard manner that results in negligible nuclear yield. Just U-235 fragments and dust all over the place.
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May 19, 2022 16:59
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https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1527146025365954560?s=20&t=xV5MD8CuZLwmfmW--PZmxA Oh no, not the Havana syndrome on drones.
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May 19, 2022 16:59
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KitConstantine posted:Information is trickling out of the east Between the numerical superiority and the apparent breakthrough I'm seriously downgrading my expectations for the Ukrainian defensive effort. If they get guys cut off or forced to retreat down roads covered by fire again that's gonna be hard to come back from fast enough.
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May 19, 2022 17:08
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Hobnob posted:I watched a documentary long ago about the development of a (military) helicopter, and they said for emergency, cannot-ignore type audio warning like this they deliberately use a motherly female voice. Apparently that kind of voice is the one most likely to be noticed by the pilot in an emergency situation. The US Air Force experimented at least experimented with having people's children record critical messages. In the heat of combat, pilots tend to drown out sounds, and I assume high-Gs don't help things. But peole will hear, "Daddy, you're left engine is on fire." Really chilling to think about, but if it works, it works. aphid_licker posted:Between the numerical superiority and the apparent breakthrough I'm seriously downgrading my expectations for the Ukrainian defensive effort. If they get guys cut off or forced to retreat down roads covered by fire again that's gonna be hard to come back from fast enough. I don't think you go in full retreat down roads. Ideally Ukraine has pushed a ton of supplies into cities like Severodonetsk--food, water, medical supplies, and ammunition--so you hunker down and hope a counterattack re-establishes contact. Something often forgotten is that holding an encirclement is also very, very hard. You have to defend a long, thin line in two directions, and those holding that line can themselves be cut off without much notice. Ynglaur fucked around with this message at 17:21 on May 19, 2022 |
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May 19, 2022 17:18
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Prettz posted:"Modern nukes" meaning literally every nuke, everywhere, except Little Boy and nuclear artillery shells. I wasn't sure about Davy Crockett, Atomic Annie, or those nuclear landmines with the chickens, so I went for technically correct to hedge my bets.
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May 19, 2022 17:24
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aphid_licker posted:Between the numerical superiority and the apparent breakthrough I'm seriously downgrading my expectations for the Ukrainian defensive effort. If they get guys cut off or forced to retreat down roads covered by fire again that's gonna be hard to come back from fast enough. I'm still Mr. "Ukraine will win" because when we talk russian numerical superiority you have to recall those videos of slouch-faced already obviously dispirited reserve fighters in ratty fatigues, each sporting a piece from a different "history of warfare" window at the museum
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May 19, 2022 17:35
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^^^ yeah but you gotta keep in mind that despite all these problems they're advancing in at least one critical location. Maybe the Ukrainian counter up north can fix everything by cutting the supply line, but then again maybe it can't.Ynglaur posted:I don't think you go in full retreat down roads. Ideally Ukraine has pushed a ton of supplies into cities like Severodonetsk--food, water, medical supplies, and ammunition--so you hunker down and hope a counterattack re-establishes contact. Something often forgotten is that holding an encirclement is also very, very hard. You have to defend a long, thin line in two directions, and those holding that line can themselves be cut off without much notice. It already happened to them twice, at ilovaisk and debaltsevo. Breaking open the encirclement also requires them to attack in very specific locations, it's predictable. And getting the guys stuck and cut off you get another Mariupol, with a bunch of guys captured in the end.
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May 19, 2022 17:42
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Neither Russia nor Ukraine will win. They'll push through Donetsk and take that backward L shaped bit and then it'll become Transnistria with 10 million people
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May 19, 2022 17:46
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Staluigi posted:I'm still Mr. "Ukraine will win" because when we talk russian numerical superiority you have to recall those videos of slouch-faced already obviously dispirited reserve fighters in ratty fatigues, each sporting a piece from a different "history of warfare" window at the museum Maybe, but those "history of warfare" troops are generally the drummed-up LPR and DNR forces--they're not really reflective of the state of the main Russian troops. And I've seen a number of videos of Ukrainian Territorial Defense/militia-type units using Maxims and WWII-era anti-air weapons too. That said, I tend to think anyone armchair-quarterbacking the likely results of this in an SA thread has about a 50 percent chance of being correct.
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May 19, 2022 17:53
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Russia may very well gain a tactical victory in eastern Ukraine but based on everything we’ve seen so far I don’t think this will translate into a strategic one. It’s sad, but Ukraine will fight on.
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May 19, 2022 17:54
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Bringing back another old Soviet tradition - denunciations https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1527322776927092741?s=20&t=axxNdGEOIoGSgocPWPESAg https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1527328436930240519?s=20&t=axxNdGEOIoGSgocPWPESAg In further clancy chat prevention news: https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1527327404594962432?s=20&t=axxNdGEOIoGSgocPWPESAg Russian side https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1527311935217102850?s=20&t=axxNdGEOIoGSgocPWPESAg Russia says the US called *them* 
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May 19, 2022 17:55
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FishBulbia posted:Neither Russia nor Ukraine will win. They'll push through Donetsk and take that backward L shaped bit and then it'll become Transnistria with 10 million people Except Transnistria has been carved off a Moldova without the means to do anything much about it whereas Transnistria with 10 million people has been carved off a Ukraine that has a very large army and a very large amount of equipment and every intention of spending the coming years blasting the poo poo out of anything even vaguely Russian shaped.
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May 19, 2022 17:59
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I'm going to recommend this article for a good overview of the implications of the collapse of Ukraine's grain exports. Extremely bleak reading. https://twitter.com/Forbes/status/1527304446589341696?s=20&t=KDOgLYzskQArpoLqxa4E1Q FishBulbia posted:Neither Russia nor Ukraine will win. They'll push through Donetsk and take that backward L shaped bit and then it'll become Transnistria with 10 million people Russia will take an L all right
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