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Hieronymous Alloy posted:https://twitter.com/Bourdain/status/960322190993477632?s=20&t=Bl20JA3qEBnukqsyPRyYSA I think he was trying to imply that Kissinger didn’t say Ukraine should just roll over.
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May 25, 2022 16:39
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BaconAndBullets posted:The old tanks could be for the people press ganged into Russian service in the Donbas. If they go hey diddle diddle straight up the middle with those they could maybe breakthrough or just eat up Ukrainian ATGM supplies in an area. Speaking of… https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1529404520828133380
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May 25, 2022 16:45
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BaconAndBullets posted:The old tanks could be for the people press ganged into Russian service in the Donbas. If they go hey diddle diddle straight up the middle with those they could maybe breakthrough or just eat up Ukrainian ATGM supplies in an area. We can ATGM go brrr faster than Russian Depots can recondition T55s back into service.
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May 25, 2022 17:02
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CMYK BLYAT! posted:i see no problem with this. russia is a demonstrably weak state, and we can achieve balance by dividing it into EU and chinese spheres of influence. most of the former soviet union is already a OBOR dig site, so we may as well give china the siberian gas fields and norilsk while europe makes good on that UK foreign minister's statement that Russia should not be free to move troops as they see fit through the rostov and voronezh regions 2025 posts are leaking, I see A.o.D. posted:We can ATGM go brrr faster than Russian Depots can recondition T55s back into service. On a related note, Russia was trying to show that uralvagonzavod is totally still making tanks, no really guys, a couple weeks ago they showed a train shipping out 5 tanks... after 3 months of war. Granted they also had the entire top of the tanks tarped over, so who knows what was actually getting sent out. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 17:07 on May 25, 2022 |
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May 25, 2022 17:02
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In other news Hungary's chief executive Orban has had his ability to rule by decree (current excuse: there's a war in Ukraine that he had no intention of helping with unless it's on the side of the Russians) extended. He has been a de facto dictator since 2020.
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May 25, 2022 17:28
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zoux posted:It's not up to me to part and parcel out pieces of a sovereign nation and I won't begrudge Ukraine for whatever it chooses, but I don't see an end to this outside of either a Russian regime change or some territorial concessions. Putin continues to be portrayed as a master of internal messaging and control but somehow simply leaving Ukraine would be a fatal blow to his leadership. I don’t buy it. That third option has always been there and continues to be there.
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May 25, 2022 17:36
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Tiny Timbs posted:Putin continues to be portrayed as a master of internal messaging and control but somehow simply leaving Ukraine would be a fatal blow to his leadership. I don't think he's a master of internal messaging and control and thus it would be catastrophic for him to spend the amount of blood and treasure he has on this war of choice and walk away with nothing. I think he would likely view that as an existential threat to his regime and I don't think I would disagree with that.
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May 25, 2022 17:39
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Listen, the US did it after 20 years and all the leadership had to bear was a month of angry cranks on Fox News.
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May 25, 2022 17:41
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Question is what resources does he have available to combat existential threats to his regime Like those tanks and nukes and cops and prisons are nominally national resources. How long is he gonna continue to be able to wield those in defense of his regime?
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May 25, 2022 17:44
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If we've learned anything these past few months, it's that what Russian leadership thinks and believes is very different from what goons (and really most people) think they think. In either case, I also don't put much stock in the idea that Putin and his cronies somehow can't back away from this.
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May 25, 2022 17:49
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Assuming that news about an assassination attempt is accurate, well... we're already at the "existential threat to the regime" point.
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May 25, 2022 17:55
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Tiny Timbs posted:Listen, the US did it after 20 years and all the leadership had to bear was a month of angry cranks on Fox News. There is virtually no basis of comparison between the two boondoggles other than the fact they were bad ideas poorly executed.
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May 25, 2022 17:57
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Kofman thinks the T-62s are an indication that Russia may be planning to augment it's manpower. https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1529423612217802753 https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1529430930343051265
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May 25, 2022 17:58
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 A Russian APC hits a mine on a road.  The APC behind the first one decides to... drive around the disabled vehicle in front.
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May 25, 2022 17:59
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Re: Kissinger and Mearsheimer chat I am a Political Scientist I have a PhD from an SEC school and focus on International Relations, Security and Small States. I even wrote a book on small states. Kissinger is a classical realist and one of the primary tenets of classical realism is a complete lack of moral obligation. Essentially politics is completely disconnected from law and morals. They are separate spheres as far as the state is concerned. That's why Cambodia happened. In Kissinger's world view the law and what is right don't matter, politics does, state survival does. Classical realism explains much of state actions throughout history. Mearsheimer is cut from the same cloth in that he believes states should be able to ensure their own security. I agree. But he comes from the point of offensive realism where aggressive action is encouraged in a system that functions in anarchy. He also says that Ukraine should cede territory. Enter me, a idiot with a degree working at a school that doesn't matter. Who happens to study small state behaviors. Small states tend to know their limits and play within them. Ukraine is not dumb. They drat well knew what was going to happen. They do what small states do in these situations, appeal to the international community that their place in the system is far more important than many people realize. Further, Ukraine is a buffer state between Russia and Europe. Everybody knows this. Zelensky plays it up. The EU/NATO community in general doesn't want Russia to advance further. They said the said the same thing in 1939 but failed to provide timely support to the Finns. This time, they did it, with a fully involved US taking the lead. No, Russia does not have the right to take Ukrainian territory. And Ukraine should drat well not cede a drat thing. The failure of the Russian offensives proves that Russia is not exactly the great power everybody feared. It's like those "rich" folks with a McMansion, jacked up F350, a boat and a bunch of other poo poo that they can't afford, it was all a show. Russia is, at most, a regional power and not for much longer if the sanctions play out. Even the old "limitless manpower" thing is dead. Kissinger is just sucking Putin off at this point, any logical classical realist would be all for shoveling weapons and money to Ukraine. It's a good, old style proxy war between Russia and the west and now it's in Europe's back yard, of course they're going to supply the UA with everything it needs. And the US (and Raytheon) are salivating over it all. The last half of my International Security course this semester was all Ukraine chat connected with various topics. I actually received some of the best student reviews I've ever had from that course.
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May 25, 2022 17:59
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Naked Bear posted:Assuming that news about an assassination attempt is accurate, well... we're already at the "existential threat to the regime" point. Clearly the rational path of action is to secure his hold on power by nuking Moscow
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May 25, 2022 18:04
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aphid_licker posted:Clearly the rational path of action is to secure his hold on power by nuking Moscow Why stop there? Bathe us all in cleansing fire.
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May 25, 2022 18:11
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I inadvertently went to C-Spam to see what they were saying.... 2 pages broke me. I think I may need to book some appointments. Aside. I don't think much of the media's grasp that this is not a one and done its a long term fold and flow, giving ground and falling back to prepared positions. Far too many #experts about atm who have no idea that pulling back is not the same as a route.
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May 25, 2022 18:18
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There's far fewer independent observers left in eastern Ukraine (which is good because they were almost all civilians or journalists who kept getting killed), so it's hard to say for sure. But ISW and others are indicating that Ukraine is fighting a defense in depth. Inflicting heavy losses on the Russians and ceding terrain, falling back, and repeating in a classic Fabian strategy. We'll see if Severedonetsk holds as well as Chernihiv or Mauripol, but it seems like time is on Ukraine's side here.
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May 25, 2022 18:23
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aphid_licker posted:Clearly the rational path of action is to secure his hold on power by nuking Moscow
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May 25, 2022 18:26
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psydude posted:There's far fewer independent observers left in eastern Ukraine (which is good because they were almost all civilians or journalists who kept getting killed), so it's hard to say for sure. But ISW and others are indicating that Ukraine is fighting a defense in depth. Inflicting heavy losses on the Russians and ceding terrain, falling back, and repeating in a classic Fabian strategy. How does defence in depth integrate a potential trapped pocket (Severodonetsk) into that?
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May 25, 2022 18:29
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Just Another Lurker posted:How does defence in depth integrate a potential trapped pocket (Severodonetsk) into that? This whole thread is a great look, from one perspective, on the good and bad that Ukraine faces in this particular area of the fight. https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1529506390485925889
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May 25, 2022 18:31
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aphid_licker posted:Mexico would probably view trying to foist Texas off on it as an act of war tho Come!
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May 25, 2022 18:34
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Doing a defense in depth means that you can't let your guys get actually cut off tho bc then you have to stop falling back or even counterattack to get them out, or write them off. E: I mean Russia breaking out the T-62s is a really good sign obvs that your attrition approach is maybe working but at some point you probably wanna somehow get that territory back. glynnenstein posted:This whole thread is a great look, from one perspective, on the good and bad that Ukraine faces in this particular area of the fight. https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1529508307396087808  it always comes down to fuckin kpop
aphid_licker fucked around with this message at 18:39 on May 25, 2022 |
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May 25, 2022 18:35
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bulletsponge13 posted:This is most likely the idea. Old Soviet doctrine had a similar play. If the front is stalled, they would sometimes use conscript/ethnic minorities/Whatever with less than state of the art; they still cost resources, and exhaust defenders in a localized fashion. Then you'd send in 'elite' units, like mechanized Guards or VDV- the theory being if the fodder didn't make a hole, they would. Typically, the sudden influx of fresh troopers with better kit creates a salient, and then as many units as feasible will be poured through to expand the salient. Soviet Doctrine would often plan these offensive in multiple prongs, with the idea being a giant pincer movement on the otherside of the lines. With multiple (3-5, within 100km of each other) the pincer isn't as controlled, and cannot be planned to the extent Soviet thinkers preferred, and sometimes lead to the enemy allowing them to form their pincer, unite their disparate salients, then hammer them while they reconsolidated, and trapped forces hit supply lines. From what I understand, that description fits the Popasna breakthrough fairly well, with Wagner mostly playing the role of 'elites'.
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May 25, 2022 18:37
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Speaking of manpower....quote:Russia raises army age limit to 50 https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world...post_type=share
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May 25, 2022 18:46
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A.o.D. posted:There is virtually no basis of comparison between the two boondoggles other than the fact they were bad ideas poorly executed. It was mostly a joke but I think if there is general agreement that Russia should not be throwing people and equipment away on this then there is probably a way out that doesn’t require a consolation prize. Tiny Timbs fucked around with this message at 19:12 on May 25, 2022 |
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May 25, 2022 19:05
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Hannibal Rex posted:From what I understand, that description fits the Popasna breakthrough fairly well, with Wagner mostly playing the role of 'elites'. The Soviet doctrine had a very limited playbook, with the only deviation being allowed from Generals; I wouldn't be surprised if there has been little tactical and strategic advancement, beyond theoretical implementation of new tech
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May 25, 2022 19:20
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glynnenstein posted:This whole thread is a great look, from one perspective, on the good and bad that Ukraine faces in this particular area of the fight. Many thanks. 
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May 25, 2022 19:23
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bulletsponge13 posted:The Soviet doctrine had a very limited playbook, with the only deviation being allowed from Generals; I wouldn't be surprised if there has been little tactical and strategic advancement, beyond theoretical implementation of new tech Until early this year, they sold it to us as hasty, adaptive decision-making and I wasted my time looking up whether the US Army's doctrinal rapid decision-making process needed more than the page or so it occupied in planning.
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May 25, 2022 20:03
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Bell_ posted:Battlefield commanders still pick and choose from a list of plays after doing some maths. Which strikes me as funny, because Soviet officers often spoke of the ad hoc doctrine and low level initiative in the US military. They viewed it as an asset at the tactical level, and a nightmare at the strategic. Some spoke of how much they despised the lack of doctrinal implementation at below divisional level; that Regimental and Battalion leaders were given leeway to ignore the the written doctrine to accomplish missions. The greatest trait of the US military is also it's weak point. It's largely made up individuals with and (speaking broadly, here) insubordination and improvisation are rewarded. Not an expert, just my own observations from limited reading
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May 25, 2022 20:20
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bulletsponge13 posted:The greatest trait of the US military is also it's weak point. It's largely made up individuals with and (speaking broadly, here) insubordination and improvisation are rewarded. If you think about it, it's a reflection on the American character to a certain extent. It's the land that gave the world P.T. Barnum, after all.
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May 25, 2022 20:30
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The most famous example is the Hedgerow cutters on the Sherman in the Normandy break out. Tanks couldn't get through the Hedgerow without exposing their tummy to Panzerfausts and whatnot. Then some farm kid remembered Pappy's tractor, and grabbed a welder and hedgehog, and got to work. It allowed the tanks to pretty much go straight through and ripping holes in the thick cover. Within 3 days, every Sherman had one. A German tank commander remarked that the tactics changed overnight, and he was shocked at such a quickly fielded modification, and was reported as saying to the effect of "It would have taken the Heer 6 months to look at the proposal. It would have been 3 years before my tanks had them.
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May 25, 2022 20:49
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bulletsponge13 posted:Which strikes me as funny, because Soviet officers often spoke of the ad hoc doctrine and low level initiative in the US military. They viewed it as an asset at the tactical level, and a nightmare at the strategic. Some spoke of how much they despised the lack of doctrinal implementation at below divisional level; that Regimental and Battalion leaders were given leeway to ignore the the written doctrine to accomplish missions. The problem with the Soviet/Russian model is that your strategic plan and all of the assumptions behind it have to be right, or the result is disaster. Under the US model your commanding General can be wrong about literally everything (see: Westmoreland just before Tet) and lower level formations can still recover a bad situation.
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May 25, 2022 20:52
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Didn't Tet cause the Viet Cong to cease to exist as an effective fighting force for years?
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May 25, 2022 20:57
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Comrade Blyatlov posted:Speaking of manpower.... As i was told on discord this is actually a good thing like the uk's ww2 home guard because it lets you free up people who are 22 year old clerks to go fight
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May 25, 2022 20:59
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A.o.D. posted:Didn't Tet cause the Viet Cong to cease to exist as an effective fighting force for years? Yeah nobody came out of Tet particularly happy. The VC were broken by the end of it, the NVA also suffered heavily. The problem for Westmoreland and the US administration is that having said 'there is no way the NVA can launch an offensive in the south of the country' it didn't matter that they technically won the battle, the US public was never again going to believe that they were winning.
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May 25, 2022 21:01
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A.o.D. posted:Didn't Tet cause the Viet Cong to cease to exist as an effective fighting force for years? Yes but it also forced the US to second guess their ability to win the war and forced Johnson to seek an end to the war.
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May 25, 2022 21:01
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bulletsponge13 posted:Which strikes me as funny, because Soviet officers often spoke of the ad hoc doctrine and low level initiative in the US military. They viewed it as an asset at the tactical level, and a nightmare at the strategic. Some spoke of how much they despised the lack of doctrinal implementation at below divisional level; that Regimental and Battalion leaders were given leeway to ignore the the written doctrine to accomplish missions. I've worked all over the world and the one trait that is very much engrained in the American cultural ethos is a pathological need to get poo poo done. Only the Australians, Kiwis, and Colombians seem to rival our thirst for accomplishing the task regardless of the process, rules, or normal working hours. As an American, living in Germany is absolutely maddening in that regard.
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May 25, 2022 21:02
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bulletsponge13 posted:The most famous example is the Hedgerow cutters on the Sherman in the Normandy break out. Tanks couldn't get through the Hedgerow without exposing their tummy to Panzerfausts and whatnot. CAAT gear is another example. When the Germans deployed their acoustic homing torpedoes during the Battle of the Atlantic and once the threat had been identified, some artificers in the RCN dockyards in Halifax cobbled together a collection of scrap metal pipes that would clang together while being towed behind a corvette or destroyer and act as an acoustic decoy. An example was provided to the USN, which didn't bother to analyze the design beyond copying it down to the very bolts being used and then threw it into rapid mass production with a speed and volume that only the United States could ever achieve, and through this those acoustic torpedoes were made far less dangerous. The turnaround from figuring out what the threat was to having a working solution entering production was a whopping 17 days. I'd argue that in addition to an absolutely unparalleled logistical capacity backed by a titanic industrial base, the ability to rapidly assess the usefulness of an idea or technology at a crisis point and then move it quickly into implementation/production is a particular American genius. Fearless fucked around with this message at 21:17 on May 25, 2022 |
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May 25, 2022 21:02
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