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FrozenVent posted:Russian advance will only be limited by logistics / supply. Eh. The defenders have an influence.
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May 29, 2022 21:06
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https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1530630366905638912?t=SYPLquteLqvGig5S8KvH-g&s=19
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May 29, 2022 21:32
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Pine Cone Jones posted:https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1530630366905638912?t=SYPLquteLqvGig5S8KvH-g&s=19 If you look at the direction the arrow is pointing and follow it to Nova Kahkova, a blue polyline starts. That's the North Crimea Canal.
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May 29, 2022 21:39
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Stultus Maximus posted:If you look at the direction the arrow is pointing and follow it to Nova Kahkova, a blue polyline starts. That's the North Crimea Canal. Any serious push in that direction will absolutely force the Russians to reprioritize their actions elsewhere. This threatens the fresh water supply in Crimea.
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May 29, 2022 21:44
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A.o.D. posted:Any serious push in that direction will absolutely force the Russians to reprioritize their actions elsewhere. This threatens the fresh water supply in Crimea. If that's the case, good for the Ukrainians and bad for the Russians. It seems like this is all a fight against the clock. Which runs out first? Russian logistics or Ukrainian manpower? I have this weird feeling that either way it plays out, it's gonna be a house of cards situation. Or both sides sit down at the negotiating table (unlikely).
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May 29, 2022 21:58
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bulletsponge13 posted:UKR holdout in a trench singlehandedly delays Russian trench assault. From drone. I couldn't watch all of it but the soldier has my upmost respect.
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May 29, 2022 22:08
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Just Another Lurker posted:I couldn't watch all of it but the soldier has my upmost respect. No matter the side or war, I can admire the hell out of that type of audacity.
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May 29, 2022 22:20
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Not a soldier here: What was the other option? Just go fetal and give up? Is there a tactical retreat available that I (definitely) don't see? E: I'm in no way saying that I wouldn't take the fetal option or understand it
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May 29, 2022 22:24
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Soul Dentist posted:Not a soldier here: Retreat was available in various forms, none of them great (over the top is an option, a bad one. So is assaulting forward. So is using their frags against them tactically, which isn't taught but is a thing- they will take cover from the grenade, too. You can us that time- maybe a quarter to a half second before they are back up to move. That would have got him into a less dependable trench to the right), and probably delaying the same thing. He was also certainly buying time, hoping friends show up. Better to make a stand where you have a chance and make them pay full price plus interest for every step. Give up is always an option. So is just not fighting. You'd be shocked how many dudes don't fight when it gets down to it. Dude was taking sprinkles from every grenade you saw- I've seen guys give up the fight from lesser wounds. While the heroic last stand happens more than we'll ever know, they don't happen as often as you think because it takes a certain kind of breed to be willing to stand there and die.
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May 29, 2022 23:05
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Dude has the option at any point of shouting to the Russians a
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May 29, 2022 23:11
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Yeah but no guarantee they listen.
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May 29, 2022 23:17
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Not a great analogy, but think of it like boxing- Why is it some men will keep getting up? Why'd we have to add the standing count? There have been fighters who just keep coming until they are killed, or stopped by outside forces. What is different between those fighters, and the guys who take a bink and give in.
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May 29, 2022 23:18
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I'm wondering if he was in some altered state of battle frenzy, like a berserker of old.
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May 29, 2022 23:30
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Carth Dookie posted:Yeah but no guarantee they listen. Or if they listen you might like the death they give you after the fact less than the one they're offering right now.
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May 29, 2022 23:30
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Alchenar posted:Dude has the option at any point of shouting to the Russians a Russia's racking up some pretty high warcrimin' scores. I'm not so sure this was actually an option.
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May 29, 2022 23:31
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bulletsponge13 posted:Info. Thanks! This confirmed what I could only see looking top down, but I can't imagine trying to assess in his boots with the sprinkles (lol) happening so fast
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May 29, 2022 23:36
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CainFortea posted:Or if they listen you might like the death they give you after the fact less than the one they're offering right now. Yeah somehow I doubt surrendering to the Russians is likely to result in a change of heart on their part from grenade chucking to immediate compassionate medical aid (lol Russian med kits even if it did) followed by a nice comfy hospital bed to see out the rest of the war.
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May 29, 2022 23:37
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A.o.D. posted:Any serious push in that direction will absolutely force the Russians to reprioritize their actions elsewhere. This threatens the fresh water supply in Crimea. ISW has been hypothesizing that Russia has been stripping other areas to support their push in the north east. If so this offensive has a real chance to FUBAR all of Russias plans if they are too weak to fully support both fronts. Also, this says a lot about Ukraines position if they can do this credibly. Holding Russia to a slow grind around severdonetsk, forcing them to reinforce north of Karkov and now advancing towards Crimea is a lot to handle all at once. Edit: also, also if this new offensive is well supported and really did catch Russia off guard then their ISR capabilities are really hurting if they can’t keep eyes on a few hundred km of pretty condensed front. Murgos fucked around with this message at 01:06 on May 30, 2022 |
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May 29, 2022 23:47
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I want to add I ain't no expert- I minored in Warology, but didn't graduate.
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May 29, 2022 23:51
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https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1531051561543028736?t=3-F3gnAxvyyBEd46P09fBg&s=19 https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1531051422191562752?t=8gulN43V3Z7ge8e0kgJCBA&s=19 https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1531051332454387712?t=w2k8G5oDwQegddSYMHH1fQ&s=19 https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1531049383789215744?t=tw8r6onuZ4cA1NjPeDBRWg&s=19 Pine Cone Jones fucked around with this message at 00:17 on May 30, 2022 |
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May 30, 2022 00:15
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BaconAndBullets posted:If that's the case, good for the Ukrainians and bad for the Russians. It seems like this is all a fight against the clock. Which runs out first? Russian logistics or Ukrainian manpower? Ukraine is spooling up a significant infusion of manpower. An early wave of mobilization has relieved regular units that had been committed to defending Kyiv within the past week. I expect that those relieving units are undergoing training in addition to their security duties, and once they're up to speed, they'll get rotated to the front. Ukraine is in theis for the long haul. Unlike Russia, Ukraine has the political capital and general will for a total war footing. A.o.D. fucked around with this message at 00:23 on May 30, 2022 |
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May 30, 2022 00:20
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The Ukrainians are starting to get a pretty solid history of counterattacks. They seem to have good priorities in where to strike (Kyiv*, Kharkiv, now Kherson) and pick a moment where the Russian forces are at their most worn out or deprioritized. * Yes, this one was mostly a rout, but they still caused the rout condition.
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May 30, 2022 00:29
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bulletsponge13 posted:I want to add I ain't no expert- I minored in Warology, but didn't graduate. I did the All New Community Oriented College of Warology courses, I learned more with OJT than there
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May 30, 2022 00:54
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Humbug Scoolbus posted:I did the All New Community Oriented College of Warology courses, I learned more with OJT than there I did a semester abroad at University of Karbala, but the credits don't transfer.
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May 30, 2022 02:01
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I get the impression that the Kremlin is still very much banking on our short attention span. https://twitter.com/meduza_en/status/1530225948037349376
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May 30, 2022 02:47
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Nuclear Tourist posted:I get the impression that the Kremlin is still very much banking on our short attention span. Eh, sounds like posturing to get Ukraine to commit more forces to defense than it needs.
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May 30, 2022 02:57
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Nuclear Tourist posted:I get the impression that the Kremlin is still very much banking on our short attention span. Lol, if Russia diverted enough forces to try Kiev again, Ukraine could probably waltz into Sevastapol.
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May 30, 2022 03:02
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Nuclear Tourist posted:I get the impression that the Kremlin is still very much banking on our short attention span. They think they can win a war of attrition that they’re already losing elsewhere? With what army/equipment?
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May 30, 2022 03:16
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Russia taking Kiev in 3 days was feint comrade. Russia will take it in 3 seasons
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May 30, 2022 03:57
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Given the current situation and the European disunity in the matter, I believe half that.
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May 30, 2022 05:33
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bulletsponge13 posted:I did a semester abroad at University of Karbala, but the credits don't transfer. Getting back to the dirt you started on counts as a graduation.
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May 30, 2022 14:17
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Alan Smithee posted:Russia taking Kiev in 3 days was feint comrade. Russia will take it in 3 seasons Six seasons and a movie
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May 30, 2022 14:39
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M_Gargantua posted:Six seasons and a movie And it ends in a way the original author never even thought of
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May 30, 2022 15:47
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I'm half amazed that some of them don't have AKs, the most widely produced Russian weapon
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May 30, 2022 16:23
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Jimmy Smuts posted:I'm half amazed that some of them don't have AKs, the most widely produced Russian weapon Aren't most AKs in the world actually unauthorized knockoffs though?
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May 30, 2022 16:25
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psydude posted:Aren't most AKs in the world actually unauthorized knockoffs though?
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May 30, 2022 16:45
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I'm putting basically no stock in anything that claims insider knowledge of what's going on in the Kremlin, especially given what we have seen of their decision making seems to amount to Putin making a decision unilaterally or with a tiny handful of consultants and then sharing the information at the last possible moment to implement it. They can't leak because they don't know and their opinions don't affect decision making ( which is not to suggest that "exclude experts from decision making and launch major undertakings as a surprise to your own people" is an overall effective management style). If it's not that, it's probably deliberate information. Our best barometer for their military intent seems to be watching where the troops go, and for their internal politics it's waiting for someone important to fall out a window.
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May 30, 2022 16:52
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Apparently the US ruled out sending MLRS because it might anger Russia. You know, more than all of the other poo poo we've already supplied.
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May 30, 2022 19:06
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https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1531151399618236416?s=20&t=T_2ptdqeHq1ZrPJ2JB11Eg Nice
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May 30, 2022 19:08
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May 30, 2022 19:20
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