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ummel posted:Not sure if you noticed, but it's from two years ago. How many of those dudes are likely still alive? wow someone shared it as if it was from today, my bad completely for letting that happen
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Jun 7, 2022 02:24
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. double post
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Jun 7, 2022 02:24
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https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1533969107778883585?cxt=HHwWgsCq2dax4MkqAAAA even ISW has thrown in the towel on figuring out what is happening FishBulbia fucked around with this message at 02:30 on Jun 7, 2022 |
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Jun 7, 2022 02:25
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FishBulbia posted:good thing an existential war absolutely does not embolden the far right at all and launching one is a great way to calm nationalists down Yeah it's not a coincidence Azov was founded in 2014. Every village flattened by Russian artillery will radicalize more people.
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Jun 7, 2022 02:25
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Owling Howl posted:Yeah it's not a coincidence Azov was founded in 2014. Every village flattened by Russian artillery will radicalize more people. There is a future where Russia did not invade in 2014 and Ukraine is still a somewhat divided country that can't pick a side. I could go to Crimea and be a plucky lil' Russified person all around Ukraine with no one caring.
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Jun 7, 2022 02:27
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:How much of this unlimited supply is still remotely usable, though? A warehouse full of artillery shells is useless if those shells have are rusted out, or are missing fuse heads, or are for guns or calibers of guns the Russian Army doesn't operate any more? My guess is Russia still has plenty of modern tanks available but has other commitments for them. Russia is a huge country with lots of border some of which aren't so friendly. They can't allocate 100% of their good tanks for a regional war like Ukraine. They probably also keep quite a few in the Moscow area because units that typically protect the center of government are elite and get the good stuff.
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Jun 7, 2022 02:27
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Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian.   
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Jun 7, 2022 02:52
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:How much of this unlimited supply is still remotely usable, though? A warehouse full of artillery shells is useless if those shells have are rusted out, or are missing fuse heads, or are for guns or calibers of guns the Russian Army doesn't operate any more? for artillery, the 152mm is their standard and they haven't deviated from that. Even with some shells rusting so bad they cannot be fired, or fuzes improperly stored, I feel confident in saying "They ain't running out of those any time soon". BUT, those are their shorter range guns/munitions. They also have 8" (203mm) ones and to be honest I have no idea how big the mountain of shells for those are, or how deep their MLRS stocks go. Guided and Precision munitions, I'd wager they're gonna start running out of unless they can successfully dust off their integrated circuit chip industry and either A: develop a drop-in replacement, or B (more likely) develop something completely different. but, that type of lead-time is... significant, so I'm back to "They're probably gonna run out soon", and by that I don't mean "they're out come Tuesday the 23rd, no more will be fired", but more we'll see "less overall usage/more selective use" as time drags on. I think the real heart of the matter here is, the longer this drags on, the harder it's going to be for Russia to maintain. We've seen already how much they've had to reduce their goals and operational cadence over just the last 3 months. What's it going to look like in another 3? At the same time, Ukraine is receiving more and better weapons from western nations, and basically a blank check for supplies provided they don't do anything to escalate like "bombing moscow". What's in the works that the US/Western powers HAVEN'T advertised? I think once Ukraine can effectively cold-stop Russian advances, while nibbling more territory back, that's when we're going to see Russia start actually coming to the negotiating table. And I think, the problem for Russia is at that point, Ukraine will be on the rise, and believe (rightly or wrongly) they can take back their entire territory by force of arms. So anything less than "everything goes back to 2013 era borders" is a non-starter. Of course, this is assuming Ukraine doesn't make any major mistakes like losing entire armies in the Donbas that they can ill-afford to replace. [edit because NERRRDDDD] On their domestic computer chip production capabilities: 500nm is the magic number for military applications, provided you have a good design team making the chip. The US still makes widescale use of 500nm chips (Motorola 603e) for many applications. Doccers fucked around with this message at 03:09 on Jun 7, 2022 |
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Jun 7, 2022 03:03
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Charliegrs posted:My guess is Russia still has plenty of modern tanks available but has other commitments for them. Russia is a huge country with lots of border some of which aren't so friendly. They can't allocate 100% of their good tanks for a regional war like Ukraine. They probably also keep quite a few in the Moscow area because units that typically protect the center of government are elite and get the good stuff. Spoiler: They probably don't. Around 75-80% of all Russian BTGs were deployed into Ukraine from the outset with a heavy bias toward those with the best/most modern kit. Those T-72B3s and T-80BVMs leading the destroyed/captured figures are the brand new, top of the line stuff. The older 1990-2000's era stuff like the T-90A and T-80U are the next most commonly lost variants. Trailing behind those you have the pretty outdated 1980's variants like the T-72B and T-80BV while the really old stuff like T-72A's are downright rare. The T-90M is basically the only "new" design that hasn't been appearing in Ukraine and those likely exist in extremely limited numbers right now as they'd have just rolled out of the factory. Every indication is that the bulk of the newest Russian armored vehicles are in Ukraine and, at best, the units sitting back in Russia have the remaining 20% of a similar slice of equipment. Possibly weighted more heavily toward the older 1990's era T-90A's/T-80U's as those have been less common in Ukraine. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 03:17 on Jun 7, 2022 |
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Jun 7, 2022 03:07
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:How much of this unlimited supply is still remotely usable, though? A warehouse full of artillery shells is useless if those shells have are rusted out, or are missing fuse heads, or are for guns or calibers of guns the Russian Army doesn't operate any more? Russia has used 122mm and 152mm artillery shells since World War 2. They won't run out of unguided ammunition for the cannons. An episode of War on the Rocks from a few weeks ago was discussing India's relationship with Russia and Ukraine. The interviewer brought up India's intended purchase of S-400s. I now wonder : does the S-400 use any non-Russian electronics? If it does, they might not have any to sell.
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Jun 7, 2022 03:26
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Donkringel posted:So question, when this all started and Russia was getting sanctioned to hell and back, there was an April date and a June date for something BIG to happen, running out of stocks, debt default, etc. Does anyone recall what that was and is Russia still on course for that happening? As previously stated, the Russian government has basically already defaulted, but it was kind of a bullshit default, and it didn't have much of an immediate impact. It will affect Russia after the war, but for the time being, it doesn't make much of a difference because the Russian government isn't seeking credit of any kind. The default was just the US government forcing them into a technical default, rather than them not actually having the money to pay the interest on their bonds. As far as I can tell, the Russian government has money coming out of their rear end and is still able to spend lavishly. The Russian government has also implemented all kinds of strategies to keep their economy afloat in the short term (extremely heavy capital controls, allowing conversion of the ruble to gold, freezing their stock market, ETC), but none of these things actually solve the long term headwinds they are facing. The economic pain that the average Russian person will experience is likely going to unfold slowly. The most damaging effects of sanctions and economic intrigue are likely still months to years down the line. As Mr.Zoo Sniper pointed out, the head of the Russian central bank said July-August is when everything will likely start going to poo poo, but I think it won't be until next year before we actually start to see the full extent of economic fallout.
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Jun 7, 2022 03:47
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https://worldnewsera.com/news/europe/potent-weapons-reach-ukraine-faster-than-the-know-how-to-use-them/ An example of how ending weapons to Ukraine is more complicated than just shoving things into cargo planes or railroad cars. quote:The M777 is highly mobile and capable of firing long distances, but training has been a bottleneck in deploying the howitzers, Ukrainian officers say. At courses in Germany that lasted a week, the United States trained soldiers to fire the weapon and others to maintain it.
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Jun 7, 2022 04:32
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Carter was right
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Jun 7, 2022 04:36
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tons of out going asm from around odesa rn
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Jun 7, 2022 04:44
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FishBulbia posted:tons of out going asm from around odesa rn Do you have a source for this? We've been hearing about all the anti-ship missiles Ukraine has been given but there's been little action relating to them. I'd like to think that they've been stockpiling them and have unleashed them all (or most) at once to destroy the remainder of the black sea fleet in one go. Unlikely it happens like that but it'd be loving amazing.
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Jun 7, 2022 04:52
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Chill Monster posted:As previously stated, the Russian government has basically already defaulted, but it was kind of a bullshit default, and it didn't have much of an immediate impact. It will affect Russia after the war, but for the time being, it doesn't make much of a difference because the Russian government isn't seeking credit of any kind. The default was just the US government forcing them into a technical default, rather than them not actually having the money to pay the interest on their bonds. As far as I can tell, the Russian government has money coming out of their rear end and is still able to spend lavishly. It can be difficult to comprehend how long it takes sanctions to go from Announced -> Enacted -> Effective. But once that train gets rolling, holy poo poo will it be hard to stop.
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Jun 7, 2022 04:55
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I haven’t used my SAE wrenches in the twenty years that I’ve owned them, and I live in the US. When were these artifacts designed and built? ok I sometimes use a 1/4” socket for hose clamps but that’s pretty much it
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Jun 7, 2022 04:58
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It's insane that the US is still on the imperial system of measurements but it's one of ten thousand such outrages dragging on into eternity these days. Any capacity for even trivial societal progress ended here many decades ago.
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Jun 7, 2022 05:11
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Vox Nihili posted:It's insane that the US is still on the imperial system of measurements but it's one of ten thousand such outrages dragging on into eternity these days. Any capacity for even trivial societal progress ended here many decades ago. You're not generally wrong, but go talk to a civil engineer about how trivial switching to metric at this point would be.
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Jun 7, 2022 05:21
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mutata posted:You're not generally wrong, but go talk to a civil engineer about how trivial switching to metric at this point would be. "We can make bulletproof street signs now. so,"
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Jun 7, 2022 05:53
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Vox Nihili posted:It's insane that the US is still on the imperial system of measurements but it's one of ten thousand such outrages dragging on into eternity these days. Any capacity for even trivial societal progress ended here many decades ago.
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Jun 7, 2022 06:01
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golden bubble posted:https://worldnewsera.com/news/europe/potent-weapons-reach-ukraine-faster-than-the-know-how-to-use-them/ This makes me wonder if all of the European military hardware uses metric nuts and bolts. Because if so then LOL talk about some idiotic lack of NATO compatibility. But leave it to the Americans to avoid the metric system like the plague even when it can literally prevent artillery from being maintained by a friendly country. I mean there's a reason NATO all uses standardized ammunition.
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Jun 7, 2022 06:07
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Doccers posted:[edit because NERRRDDDD] check my math here, plz: 500 nm is like 1/2 a mm, right? does that mean the gates are still visible?
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Jun 7, 2022 06:09
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lifetime supply of Pocky posted:check my math here, plz: 500 nm is like 1/2 a mm, right? does that mean the gates are still visible? You're thinking micrometers, nanometers are 1/1000 that.
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Jun 7, 2022 06:12
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FishBulbia posted:tons of out going asm from around odesa rn Can you please not just announce things like this without a source.
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Jun 7, 2022 06:15
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the holy poopacy posted:You're thinking micrometers, nanometers are 1/1000 that. ah, yep. thanks a bunch
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Jun 7, 2022 06:17
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Charliegrs posted:Can you please not just announce things like this without a source. According to misc twitter accounts there was something but it's not clear what. They might have meant sam not asm https://twitter.com/oksfar/status/1533987648590729219 https://twitter.com/alrakad_M/status/1533984905289515008 https://twitter.com/SeverusAlwaysss/status/1533982220632858624
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Jun 7, 2022 06:34
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Flavahbeast posted:According to misc twitter accounts there was something but it's not clear what. They might have meant sam not asm For those who don't know, if you click on the tweet then you will get the option to translate it. Because probably 99% of the people on this thread only speak English.
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Jun 7, 2022 07:06
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Some dude tried to storm the biggest fuel refinery in Plock, Poland. He stormed one of entrances and stabbed a guard, but was apprehended. Apparently he had two grenades and a “weapon” in his car. I’m hoping this is some insane fucko - that refinery is the size of a city and with gear like that, he couldn’t really do much damage, but the whole situation is still bizarre.
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Jun 7, 2022 07:36
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Wrt using old tanks, the situation is not dire when you see T-62's in Ukraine. The situation is DIRE when you start seeing the new T-14 Armata at the front! 
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Jun 7, 2022 08:09
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Charliegrs posted:Because probably 99% of the people on this thread only speak English. What an odd thing to say
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Jun 7, 2022 08:16
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Cicero posted:That's weird, I thought the military at least used more metric units. It can be a real grab bag of units. Some things are in metric for NATO interoperability and then you get to aviation where it's mostly imperial. For tooling and assembly well, you work with what you got.
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Jun 7, 2022 08:19
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Nenonen posted:Wrt using old tanks, the situation is not dire when you see T-62's in Ukraine. The situation is DIRE when you start seeing the new T-14 Armata at the front! A brand new T-14 Armata fresh off the assembly line menacingly advances in pouring rain towards the Ukrainian position. UA soldiers are hiding behind remains of buildings and gripping their weapons, praying that the Javelins will get there on time... Suddenly the tank hits an errant piece of concrete. The sides fall off, revealing the two Russian soldiers on bicycles pedaling furiously to make the plywood tank move forward. At that very moment the rain finally gets to the tank's paper mache cannon and it folds under its own weight. Someone nearby pulls on a slide whistle.
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Jun 7, 2022 08:20
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Charliegrs posted:For those who don't know, if you click on the tweet then you will get the option to translate it. This thread has many European goons and plenty from Eastern Europe, it started as a spinoff of the EE thread. The thread regulars might even be close to a majority Euro. There are a good number of folks who read Russian, not to mention all the other European languages represented. D&D as a subforum is highly international. Back in December I crunched some numbers and there are easily more posts/day in the international politics threads than the US politics thread. Fritz the Horse fucked around with this message at 08:29 on Jun 7, 2022 |
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Jun 7, 2022 08:26
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Fritz the Horse posted:This thread has many European goons and plenty from Eastern Europe, it started as a spinoff of the EE thread. The thread regulars might even be close to a majority Euro. There are a good number of folks who read Russian, not to mention all the other European languages represented. Even in USA over 15% of people are multi lingual
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Jun 7, 2022 08:37
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It's not 2003 anymore, serviceable automated translation is available to anyone with internet access. It literally takes a second.
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Jun 7, 2022 08:44
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Charliegrs posted:This makes me wonder if all of the European military hardware uses metric nuts and bolts. Because if so then LOL talk about some idiotic lack of NATO compatibility. But leave it to the Americans to avoid the metric system like the plague even when it can literally prevent artillery from being maintained by a friendly country. I mean there's a reason NATO all uses standardized ammunition. I believe American cars even switched over to metric at this point so you'd hope the military poo poo would've been done long ago. Fritz the Horse posted:This thread has many European goons and plenty from Eastern Europe, it started as a spinoff of the EE thread. The thread regulars might even be close to a majority Euro. There are a good number of folks who read Russian, not to mention all the other European languages represented. I see someone unfucked my av, it's no frog but pretty good, thx.
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Jun 7, 2022 08:52
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mobby_6kl posted:I have no idea, but at most, only the British could even potentially use non-metric stuff. And I doubt that. Not counting aviation, but that's standardized on the moon units in all of the West. Yeah I kind of worded my original post wrong. I meant it's idiotic that the US still uses the imperial (is that what it's called?) System for anything military related when most of NATO is in Europe and uses the metric system and interoperability is important. Especially when we sell so much military hardware to Europe. I mean it's idiotic that the US doesn't use metric in general but I digress.
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Jun 7, 2022 09:05
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Mokotow posted:Some dude tried to storm the biggest fuel refinery in Plock, Poland. He stormed one of entrances and stabbed a guard, but was apprehended. Apparently he had two grenades and a “weapon” in his car. Update is dude was insane and/or on drugs, armed with stun grenades, some sort of short weapon and a knife. Was on a top secret commando mission. Not sabotage, but he still left one of the guards in serious condition.
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Jun 7, 2022 09:18
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Nenonen posted:Wrt using old tanks, the situation is not dire when you see T-62's in Ukraine. The situation is DIRE when you start seeing the new T-14 Armata at the front! Fritz the Horse posted:This thread has many European goons and plenty from Eastern Europe...
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