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TheLawinator
Apr 13, 2012

Competence on the battlefield is a myth. The side which screws up next to last wins, it's as simple as that.

Motronic posted:

:iceburn:

So wrong. So, so wrong. You really think there is mechanic in a bottle with no downsides.

You put that poo poo into a system and then there is no way at all to open it for service without having to replace EVERYTHING. It's a last ditch all-or-nothing effort.

Valid, there's probably a reason why I'm on the business side and not the service side. Our guys usually use it after a dye kit doesn't work out along with some other things so I'm probably missing the actual process by which they come to the conclusion to use a sealant. My bad.

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Arsenic Lupin
Apr 12, 2012

This particularly rapid💨 unintelligible 😖patter💁 isn't generally heard🧏‍♂️, and if it is🤔, it doesn't matter💁.


therobit posted:

if your house loses value that’s really only a problem if you lose your job. Even at that, you can live in your house a lot longer without paying if you own it than if you rent it.
In 1965 two Boomers buy houses in thriving industry towns. One buys in Palo Alto to be near Fairchild Semiconductor. The other buys in Detroit to be near Ford. Both of them are making sound financial decisions. Guess which one retires rich? Guess which one is stuck in an underwater house that can never be sold?

That wasn't a one-time thing. I had a co-worker who, at the company's behest, moved to the new Phoenix office. He bought a house. Then the company closed the Phoenix office and wanted him to move back, and his house was worth substantially less than he'd paid for it. Furthermore, lots of other computer companies were pulling out of Phoenix, too. I lived in Massachusetts when the minicomputer market (yes, I am old) collapsed. Suddenly demand for houses cratered as people couldn't find jobs and some of them moved out of state. Other people lived near Lockheed when defense spending collapsed. It is absolutely possible for housing conditions to reverse, dramatically, for local reasons. You can't actually plan for that.

I'm not saying people should buy houses; I did, and I continued to do so after I sold a house underwater and had to write a check at the closing. I am saying that guarantees of preserving capital, far less increasing capital, are not well-founded.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

therobit posted:

If you don’t think the Great Recession and it’s effects on housing markets were aberrant then I don’t know what to tell you. You have to go back to the depression to find another recession that severe. Generally that is not something you should expect to be lurking around every corner. Most downturns are far less severe, and if your house loses value that’s really only a problem if you lose your job. Even at that, you can live in your house a lot longer without paying if you own it than if you rent it.

Also, less than one percent of homes were ever foreclosed on during the Great Recession and that was heavily weighted towards people with lovely credit who had liar loans.

The Great Recession, or rather, the housing crisis of 2007/8 which triggered it, was of course aberrant. You can see it on the chart I posted. What I'm saying is that the entire runup in prices from the late 1990s to 2007 was also historically unprecedented, once you account for inflation. We can't presume that the latest runup that occurred since about 2010 is a return to normality and current prices are therefore rock solid, and no new downturn "black swan" event is possible.

Also, only a percent or so of all homes are for sale in a given year. The multiple hundred thousands of homes forclosed on in each of 2007 through 2009 had a massive impact on prices because that's how pricing works. Banks even held empty homes for a year or more to try to slow down the rate at which they were dumped on the market because it was having such an outsized effect on prices.

therobit
Aug 19, 2008

I've been tryin' to speak with you for a long time
I’m not making an argument about capital. I’m making an argument about it still generally being a good decision to buy a home for most people that can afford it absent appreciation, unless they have plans to move around a lot. Obviously if you work in an industry that expedites boom/bust cycles or where there’s a good chance you could be laid off tomorrow you might want to take that into consideration. Huge drops in value happen but are rare. I can only seem to find numbers from 1977 on but if you bought in 77 in the Detroit area and never remortgaged then you did not wind up underwater pretty much at any point. The place where we see a dramatic drop in that market is the Great Recession, and it bounced back within 7ish years. Palo Alto has a little more up and down, but the widest gap to recovery being 7 years during the same recession. If you move at the company’s behest it’s a good idea to get relo package that includes buying back your house if they move you again, or else make sure the pay bump makes up for it.

Buying a home is usually a good idea if you are planning on staying in one location and can afford it. It is rightfully recognized as the middle class pathway to financial stability and success, and this is acknowledged by academics and the government and born out in research.A lot more people are in a position to buy a home than the people in this Thread that like to poo poo on anyone buying a home believe. Buying because you can afford to now and likely won’t be able to if the past 20 years of market activity were to replay is actually a really good reason to buy. It’s the reason I bought. My household income has quintupled since I bought this house and I would JUST be able to afford a home again now if I hadn’t bought in 2013. And that’s only in a hypothetical situation where I was somehow not affected by the ridiculous rent increases over that time span. Y’all just overestimate the downside risks and fail to see that there are a lot more benefits than hypothetical appreciation, which doesn’t matter unless you move.

therobit
Aug 19, 2008

I've been tryin' to speak with you for a long time

Leperflesh posted:

The Great Recession, or rather, the housing crisis of 2007/8 which triggered it, was of course aberrant. You can see it on the chart I posted. What I'm saying is that the entire runup in prices from the late 1990s to 2007 was also historically unprecedented, once you account for inflation. We can't presume that the latest runup that occurred since about 2010 is a return to normality and current prices are therefore rock solid, and no new downturn "black swan" event is possible.

Also, only a percent or so of all homes are for sale in a given year. The multiple hundred thousands of homes forclosed on in each of 2007 through 2009 had a massive impact on prices because that's how pricing works. Banks even held empty homes for a year or more to try to slow down the rate at which they were dumped on the market because it was having such an outsized effect on prices.

I think we can safely assume we aren’t heading for another crash in values like 2007-2009 any time soon. The reason we can is that it required very specific conditions for that to occur and they are not present nor will they be until we get another 20 year run of financial deregulation. I’m not saying housing values never go down, but expecting a housing crash that severe is some chicken little bullshit.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

therobit posted:

I’m making an argument about it still generally being a good decision to buy a home for most people that can afford it absent appreciation, unless they have plans to move around a lot. Obviously if you work in an industry that expedites boom/bust cycles or where there’s a good chance you could be laid off tomorrow you might want to take that into consideration.

Cool, I'm glad you've backed off from

therobit posted:

In general, if you can afford it, and it suits your lifestyle, you should buy a house. Even if it’s (just a little bit of) a stretch, and even if you can’t put 20% down.

Which is half of what I took issue with. Although you're still not admitting to a number of reasons - some posted in just the last few pages - that should lead some people to decide not to buy at a given point in their lives.

quote:

Huge drops in value happen but are rare. I can only seem to find numbers from 1977 on but if you bought in 77 in the Detroit area and never remortgaged then you did not wind up underwater pretty much at any point. The place where we see a dramatic drop in that market is the Great Recession, and it bounced back within 7ish years. Palo Alto has a little more up and down, but the widest gap to recovery being 7 years during the same recession. If you move at the company’s behest it’s a good idea to get relo package that includes buying back your house if they move you again, or else make sure the pay bump makes up for it.

And as the other half, this ignores the affect inflation has on prices, and also sets the bar at "being underwater" when the actual argument was whether buying a house is strictly better than renting for everyone. The rest of your post also continues to insist that the 2007/8 drop in prices was unprecedented. Yes, the causes of that drop were unprecedented, but drops themselves are not: just look at the chart I posted, it's obvious that there have been repeated cases of inflation-adjusted home values dropping and staying below their peak for a long time. You just don't normally see it because very few people ever bother to adjust historical prices for inflation.

quote:

Y’all just overestimate the downside risks and fail to see that there are a lot more benefits than hypothetical appreciation, which doesn’t matter unless you move.

This is just wrong on every level. This thread does not overstate the downside risks, it has spent years and hundreds of pages detailing them in particular. It does not ignore the benefits of home ownership beyond hypothetical appreciation: it has spent years and hundreds of pages spelling them out in detail. And appreciation absolutely matters whether or not you move: it determines whether and by how much you can refinance or borrow against your equity, it has a huge effect on how your neighborhood will change (or not) over time. Moreover, the vast majority of first-time homebuyers will sell their house, long before the mortgage is paid off, and whether/how much the house's value has changed has a huge effect on both the timing of that decision and what that family can afford to do when they sell their home.

I've been reading and posting in this thread for over a decade. I assure you that you are misunderstanding the consensus if you think it's full of homeowners actively discouraging everyone from buying. We are all doing our best to look out for each new poster's best interests - we try to give people all the information they need to make good decisions. I suggest you actually ask the people we've talked to whether they think they've been misled or misinformed. Hell, try to find a single poster in the last, I don't know, thousand pages or so, who bailed on the thread as not having given them good information and advice. We've helped scores of people through the process of deciding what they can afford, finding, and purchasing a first home.

I'll give you one thing. You're right that the next financial crisis won't look like the last one. It never does. If home prices fall - well, that's silly, the next time home prices fall significantly, it'll be caused by something different from the last time. The cyclical economies of modern times always twist and turn on novel situations. We discover and unlock bold new ways to leap forward and fall back.

I do not "expect" another housing crash. I can't predict the future. I do, in my fairly experienced estimation, believe there is risk of a downturn in housing prices in the future. Risk isn't certainty. This is fundamental to understand. When we say "there's a risk this could happen" that does not mean we are predicting it will happen. When we tell people that buying a house is a risky proposition, that is not the same as telling them not to buy a house. It's teaching people to recognize and account for possibilities when deciding how to steer their lives. I think that's a good thing.

Sundae
Dec 1, 2005

Leperflesh posted:

Not only are credit checks legal in california, so are criminal background checks, except in Berkeley and Oakland. I'm not sure but I suspect that being evicted by a sheriff goes on your criminal record?

To add to this: landlords out here will also (illegal, but I see it fairly often) require drug tests. On top of that, you have the totally-not-blacklists where landlords / corporations will report people who sued them or reported them for housing violations, etc etc.

Sheriff eviction doesn't go on a criminal record (you didn't commit a crime in the majority of cases), but it's absolutely in the court docs and will be easily found by anyone who looks around. It'll also probably show up on a blacklist too, along with other high crimes like using medical marijuana or perhaps demanding your dangerous electrical problem be fixed.


I agree that buying is largely a lifestyle choice (though I disagree that it isn't a clear financial choice too, though that's dependent on your market). Wanting to be free from lovely landlords and the near-permanent transience of renting in the USA is a lifestyle choice and well worth consideration for people who can afford the financial aspects.

therobit
Aug 19, 2008

I've been tryin' to speak with you for a long time

Leperflesh posted:

Cool, I'm glad you've backed off from

Which is half of what I took issue with. Although you're still not admitting to a number of reasons - some posted in just the last few pages - that should lead some people to decide not to buy at a given point in their lives.

And as the other half, this ignores the affect inflation has on prices, and also sets the bar at "being underwater" when the actual argument was whether buying a house is strictly better than renting for everyone. The rest of your post also continues to insist that the 2007/8 drop in prices was unprecedented. Yes, the causes of that drop were unprecedented, but drops themselves are not: just look at the chart I posted, it's obvious that there have been repeated cases of inflation-adjusted home values dropping and staying below their peak for a long time. You just don't normally see it because very few people ever bother to adjust historical prices for inflation.

This is just wrong on every level. This thread does not overstate the downside risks, it has spent years and hundreds of pages detailing them in particular. It does not ignore the benefits of home ownership beyond hypothetical appreciation: it has spent years and hundreds of pages spelling them out in detail. And appreciation absolutely matters whether or not you move: it determines whether and by how much you can refinance or borrow against your equity, it has a huge effect on how your neighborhood will change (or not) over time. Moreover, the vast majority of first-time homebuyers will sell their house, long before the mortgage is paid off, and whether/how much the house's value has changed has a huge effect on both the timing of that decision and what that family can afford to do when they sell their home.

I've been reading and posting in this thread for over a decade. I assure you that you are misunderstanding the consensus if you think it's full of homeowners actively discouraging everyone from buying. We are all doing our best to look out for each new poster's best interests - we try to give people all the information they need to make good decisions. I suggest you actually ask the people we've talked to whether they think they've been misled or misinformed. Hell, try to find a single poster in the last, I don't know, thousand pages or so, who bailed on the thread as not having given them good information and advice. We've helped scores of people through the process of deciding what they can afford, finding, and purchasing a first home.

I'll give you one thing. You're right that the next financial crisis won't look like the last one. It never does. If home prices fall - well, that's silly, the next time home prices fall significantly, it'll be caused by something different from the last time. The cyclical economies of modern times always twist and turn on novel situations. We discover and unlock bold new ways to leap forward and fall back.

I do not "expect" another housing crash. I can't predict the future. I do, in my fairly experienced estimation, believe there is risk of a downturn in housing prices in the future. Risk isn't certainty. This is fundamental to understand. When we say "there's a risk this could happen" that does not mean we are predicting it will happen. When we tell people that buying a house is a risky proposition, that is not the same as telling them not to buy a house. It's teaching people to recognize and account for possibilities when deciding how to steer their lives. I think that's a good thing.

Why do you think it would suit someone’s lifestyle to buy a home if they Plan to move a lot, and why do you think inflation adjusted values matter in the context of stability of your housing cost? Nobody is arguing you should buy a home so that it appreciates or to borrow against any time you have equity. Those are boneheaded things to do. Buying a home is good because it fixes a substantial portion of your housing costs for 30 years and by the time you retire all you have left to pay are taxes and insurance.

You particularly and also Motronic do your best to scare the poo poo out of people and overstate the downside risks, which I assume is because you seem think everyone coming in here is as delusional as a 2005 HGTV reality show contestant convinced that houses never go down in value. Newsflash: everyone has known houses can go down in value that since October of 2008 at the latest, earlier if they had ever given it half a second’s thought. This does not make you insightful. The data do not bear out that homeowners get in trouble with their mortgages very often. Car loans and credit card debt are by far bigger risks. The loans perform and people either stay in their home or sell it and upgrade if they can afford to do so and want to.

Motronic
Nov 6, 2009

You just can't give this up, can you? Your arguments aren't even cohesive through this last page, you are moving the goalposts so you don't have to take the loss each time you respond to Leperfish.

What is your goal here? To tell people to just buy with no money down and not maintain their homes and if everything works out perfectly then bingo-bango they have a house and equity? Is that where you think the conversation should end to make sure we aren't "gatekeeping" home ownership?

Slugworth
Feb 18, 2001

If two grown men can't make a pervert happy for a few minutes in order to watch a film about zombies, then maybe we should all just move to Iran!
I could see getting the idea that this thread has a bit of a negative attitude towards home buying if you've only been following it for the past few months as I have, but also, this is a historically bad time to buy a house, so it seems reasonable to me?

BigPaddy
Jun 30, 2008

That night we performed the rite and opened the gate.
Halfway through, I went to fix us both a coke float.
By the time I got back, he'd gone insane.
Plus, he'd left the gate open and there was evil everywhere.


Buying a home is a huge financial decision and coming to a thread to ask for advice and to be given actual grounded advice rather than just being an enabling echo chamber is rare and should be supported. Even if it appears to a casual observer to be a bunch of “gatekeepers” stopping people from owning their slice of the American dream because their circumstances are not really suitable.

in a well actually
Jan 26, 2011

dude, you gotta end it on the rhyme

“Do never buy” is the thread motto because there are a billion possible ways to fail and every other part of the cultural conversation is conventional wisdom boomer fantasy maximum sunshine upside.

Speaking of, anyone have an update on this guy recently? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casey_Serin

E: you’ll never believe what his job is now

Pollyanna
Mar 5, 2005

Milk's on them.


Slugworth posted:

I could see getting the idea that this thread has a bit of a negative attitude towards home buying if you've only been following it for the past few months as I have, but also, this is a historically bad time to buy a house, so it seems reasonable to me?

I gotta be real, Kramering into this thread after getting sick of my landlords’ bullshit has basically gone like this:





I’ve never felt good about the prospects of entering the market, at least not the one I’m in. On one hand, it’s probably for the best to kill that need for things to be perfect/good-enough, but on the other, can you really say a choice you aren’t 100% confident about is a good one?

Anyway don’t mind me, I’m easily the least educated poster here.

bort
Mar 13, 2003

Pollyanna posted:

Anyway don’t mind me, I’m easily the least educated poster here.
No, I'm here, too. :shobon:

I like being a renter and don't really want to own, but this is the third time in four years I've had a landlord sell the place out from under me. Rents are lovely, condo prices are so high. This is just a terrible time to do anything.

Phuzun
Jul 4, 2007

Yeah, I don't think this thread actively tells people not to buy. It certainly convinced me to hold off a few years ago when I was being pressured to buy by family and I read through the advice/stories. After looking harder at my finances and the types of houses that I could afford, I decided against it. Sure, I could have afforded something on the low end "to build equity". That would have burned up in selling to get a nicer place later, especially since I would have had minimal down and PMI at the time, among other concerns about how my savings rate would be hurt and some of the prices on unexpected maintenance.

Sure this thread (and partially the ownership thread) made me stop earlier, that was only because it gave perspective that I didn't get elsewhere and that perspective included better understanding of risks that shaped a better goal for owning a home. I'm going to start looking at houses as I've saved enough to avoid PMI, can afford in the neighborhoods that I'd want, while affording to save for maintenance/improvements and other goals.

Pollyanna
Mar 5, 2005

Milk's on them.


Similar story here, this is all predicated by lovely landlords and family dangling Big Bux in front of my face and going “Polly wanna house??? Polly wanna house???”, and me being like drat I do want that moneys but also this feels like a bad idea. So I did my own independent research. Came to the conclusion that my reasons to buy are only borderline-compelling, so I’m waffling a bunch.

Cyrano4747
Sep 25, 2006

Yes, I know I'm old, get off my fucking lawn so I can yell at these clouds.

Pollyanna posted:

Similar story here, this is all predicated by lovely landlords and family dangling Big Bux in front of my face and going “Polly wanna house??? Polly wanna house???”, and me being like drat I do want that moneys but also this feels like a bad idea. So I did my own independent research. Came to the conclusion that my reasons to buy are only borderline-compelling, so I’m waffling a bunch.

If you've got family underwriting you the financial angle likely changes significantly. Free money is free money. That's a pretty huge advantage, and frankly at that point it really comes down to how much you value not having to deal with landlords and your ability to pay for the upkeep of a house.

I've said this in a few different contexts, but ultimately what it comes down to is your ability to pay your monthly bills without being house poor. If rent + utlils + other > mortgage + insurance + taxes + upkeep it probably makes sense to buy. There are other factors too, of course, maybe you want to live in a city center but houses there are all way too much so buying anywhere means a commute you don't want etc, but that comes into how much value you place on QOL stuff like that.

If you've got people giving you a significant chunk of change that's going to do a lot to drive the mortgage payments down, which in turn is going to make the equation look different than someone who is having to pay for all of it themselves and ends up with a smaller down payment, PMI, etc. as a result.

The question isn't really which is better, the question is which you want and which you can afford. Those might not be the same thing. And "afford" in this context is more or less figuring out how much of your monthly income you are willing to spend on housing, and doing the math from there. That and considerations like how stable your employment is etc.

Cyrano4747
Sep 25, 2006

Yes, I know I'm old, get off my fucking lawn so I can yell at these clouds.

basically, it's a lifestyle choice, and like all lifestyle choices the real question is whether you have the financial means to support that lifestyle.

Pollyanna
Mar 5, 2005

Milk's on them.


Exactly - so the money ends up not being the driving factor (while still remaining important, to be fair). Instead, it becomes the situation itself, and what you’re changing your life into. As much as I’d love to get an SFH, there’s not a whole lot of reason for one person and her cat to get a whole-rear end house, especially if they won’t be as satisfying or comfortable as I’ve hoped to find. So I’m now considering a condo instead, and leaving its future value in the hands of whatever god is out there watching over us. Hopefully with popcorn and a good beer.

Getting a house because you want to take advantage of “””””free””””” money is still a housing decision based on finances, and I don’t want to neglect non-financial reasons to buy or not buy.

Cyrano4747
Sep 25, 2006

Yes, I know I'm old, get off my fucking lawn so I can yell at these clouds.

Pollyanna posted:

As much as I’d love to get an SFH, there’s not a whole lot of reason for one person and her cat to get a whole-rear end house,

You've posted this a few times and frankly it seems like self-sabotaging and self-destructive rationalization.

If you don't want all that extra space, that's fine. Don't get forced into something you don't want. But don't feel guilty for getting something that you do want just because it's just you and a cat. I don't know what your market is like, but there are probably a lot of options out there for smaller homes that aren't attractive to your typical family of four. God knows a lot of those houses around me are getting bought by development companies and demolished in favor of a 2500+sqft monstrosity put diagonal across the lot with zero yard, but if you find some cute little 2br with a yard you like, don't' beat yourself up about how there might be someone out there who is more deserving because they've got a huge family or whatever.

I applaud being socially conscious and trying to make decisions that don't only benefit yourself, but at the same time you also have to take care of yourself.

edit: you kind of remind me of a great aunt of mine who pretty much eschewed every luxury possible with a comment of "well I don't really need it" while kind of sighing and looking at the other people who were enjoying the thing that we all knew she really wanted.

Cyrano4747 fucked around with this message at 17:25 on Jun 11, 2022

1st_Panzer_Div.
May 11, 2005
Grimey Drawer

Motronic posted:

You just can't give this up, can you? Your arguments aren't even cohesive through this last page, you are moving the goalposts so you don't have to take the loss each time you respond to Leperfish.

What is your goal here? To tell people to just buy with no money down and not maintain their homes and if everything works out perfectly then bingo-bango they have a house and equity? Is that where you think the conversation should end to make sure we aren't "gatekeeping" home ownership?

I'm 90% in agreement with therobit here and share their frustration.

Therobit & I have work(ed) in the industry. I do think the experience matters - someone paid me to analyze & opine about west coast markets. Doesn't mean we're right, but I think it matters.

This thread greatly over emphasizes the negative, potential expenses, and worst case scenarios of house buying & home ownership. Even in cases like Pollyanna (love you Polly, still rooting for you), where there's a lot of confusion, emotions, and waffling... I'd compare it to having a kid. You're never gonna be truly ready, it's good to have more info, but goon interpretations of current/near term market conditions as bleak shouldn't be portrayed as a reason to not buy. Otoh the realties of needing a budget, location, type of house (fixer o not), etc. very much need to be addressed and are great reasons to advise a step back. (please do these things if you're gonna buy)

1.) Every metric in the US shows home owners are wealthier then renters. Their children do better. They live longer. They're happier. They get additional legal protections. They get on & off tax benefits. Causation aside, the correlations are very real.

2.) The financial system is designed, from the ground up, to depart suckers from their money. Arguments like save up 20% for PMI to save $70-100/month are to reduce poor people from buying.

3.) 2008. I personally had to execute this hell. It nearly killed me, it did kill colleagues & homeowners. The strategic & analytical parts of the industry were generally aware '08 was coming - it was super profitable, the build up & the collapse. Twice in 100 years. You're more likely to be drafted into the US army than hit another major housing collapse*. None of the reports about price drops/correction/bubble compare this to 2008.

4.) You are going to die. It's not great financially, but can't get around it, you have limited time. If you can and don't buy in your 30's, it does get harder every decade. You gotta figure out how to weight this one on your own.

Lastly - unlike building a pc, something awful can't be your only resource. You have to talk to family, friends, neighbors, colleagues, take the FNMA home buyer's course. Talk to realtors, lenders.


As far as my personal experience, the thread has been a wonderful place to rant, sometimes incoherently, about house buying. It also resulted in someone PM'ing me a realtor recommendation which turned out great.
But it also, near unanimously, advised me against asking for nearly $25,000 in closing costs and repairs (by 3rd party vendors) - which I got.

fknlo
Jul 6, 2009


Fun Shoe

Slugworth posted:

but also, this is a historically bad time to buy a house

I feel like this has been a thing every year for how long now? I didn't buy a house in Colorado for a ton of reasons, but I ended up being here for way longer than I thought and I'd probably be pocketing $200k in equity after 5 years. Things were bad when I got here and It just gets worse every single day.

I'm looking in somewhat rural Missouri right now and prices are wild here too. I don't know who the gently caress is buying $300k+ houses here but they go fast. I'd be more than fine renting for a bit but the rental market in this town is also abysmal. Even then I feel like I'm on the border of getting priced out of decent houses here. I also got pre-qualified for $750k which is loving hilarious too.

Motronic
Nov 6, 2009

1st_Panzer_Div. posted:

I'm 90% in agreement with therobit here and share their frustration.

Therobit & I have work(ed) in the industry.

I don't know what therobit did/does, but you haven't worked in an end of the industry that matters unfortunately. You've spent your time here prognosticating on market movements, writing missives about a commodity product (mortgages), and anxiety posting about your own purchase.

Regardless of this claimed experience you seem to have some fundamental knowledge gaps in the financial portion of this.

You've just showed up in this thread lately, during the worst market conditions to purchase a home in my lifetime due to limited inventory and competition that is causing people to have to exhibit exceptionally risky behaviors (waiving inspections, waiving finance contingencies, waiving appraisal contingencies) in order to be "competitive" and are now trying to tell me/us that I/the thread always says not to buy.

You haven't been around long enough to make that statement, which is trivially refuted by simply going back and reading the thread from before the market moved this way.

1st_Panzer_Div.
May 11, 2005
Grimey Drawer

Motronic posted:

You've just showed up in this thread lately

2011, but I can't disagree that it's from the wrong end of the industry and likely skews me towards "buy".

edit: Question - why is now such a terribly risky time to buy, but 2019, which had significant bubble/over-valued flags, was not?

1st_Panzer_Div. fucked around with this message at 18:41 on Jun 11, 2022

Sandwich Anarchist
Sep 12, 2008

Motronic posted:

I don't know what therobit did/does, but you haven't worked in an end of the industry that matters unfortunately. You've spent your time here prognosticating on market movements, writing missives about a commodity product (mortgages), and anxiety posting about your own purchase.

Regardless of this claimed experience you seem to have some fundamental knowledge gaps in the financial portion of this.

You've just showed up in this thread lately, during the worst market conditions to purchase a home in my lifetime due to limited inventory and competition that is causing people to have to exhibit exceptionally risky behaviors (waiving inspections, waiving finance contingencies, waiving appraisal contingencies) in order to be "competitive" and are now trying to tell me/us that I/the thread always says not to buy.

You haven't been around long enough to make that statement, which is trivially refuted by simply going back and reading the thread from before the market moved this way.

You like to put words in people's mouths and oversimplify what they say alot, it seems.

Arsenic Lupin
Apr 12, 2012

This particularly rapid💨 unintelligible 😖patter💁 isn't generally heard🧏‍♂️, and if it is🤔, it doesn't matter💁.


1st_Panzer_Div. posted:

1.) Every metric in the US shows home owners are wealthier then renters. Their children do better. They live longer. They're happier. They get additional legal protections. They get on & off tax benefits. Causation aside, the correlations are very real.
Jesus H. Christ.

People who can afford to own a home are richer than people who can't. Alert the media.

gwrtheyrn
Oct 21, 2010

AYYYE DEEEEE DUBBALYOO DA-NYAAAAAH!

1st_Panzer_Div. posted:

1.) Every metric in the US shows home owners are wealthier then renters. Their children do better. They live longer. They're happier. They get additional legal protections. They get on & off tax benefits. Causation aside, the correlations are very real.

Gee I wonder why wealthy people are wealthier than less wealthy people. Maybe it's because they're wealthier!

Focusing on negatives in this thread is fine. If people can't find their own reasons why they want to buy a house, they wouldn't be here in the first place, and if they can be easily talked out of buying, then they probably weren't ready to buy in the first place. It's not necessarily that people will absolutely face disaster, but they should know what they're getting into in likely the largest financial commitment of their life. Same poo poo happens with college with grads going "but I didn't know!!!!!" If preparing for unlikely circumstances wasn't important to people, insurance wouldn't exist

QuarkJets
Sep 8, 2008

Zaurg was a homeowner. Makes you think

phosdex
Dec 16, 2005

Hello, I've never noticed this thread before.

I am in the process of buying a house in Santa Fe. About two weeks ago I looked at a place and put an offer in. Seller got a higher offer but that fell through and now I'm closing in another 2 weeks. Did the house inspection this morning, inspector said everything is mostly good, a few small things but nothing big. Waiting on full report, some sewer scan is tomorrow. Yesterday a termite inspection took place. Not sure what's next.

Anyhow, I'm pretty excited. I moved from MN, didn't expect to find a house so fast.

Doctor Party
Jan 3, 2004

Doctor Party Woohoo!
One thing I've noticed about this thread but also on SA in general...there's often a group think that happens that can stifle more coherent discussion.

Like someone a few pages back asking about home buying outside the USA and getting ten replies screaming we can't help you, followed by one very helpful uhh OK there are some general principles to consider regardless of market post.

Another example I find is the person asking a question and getting a generic response when they need a specific one. Like the guy who's buying in a market that isn't so hot and asks for and gets an inspection, credits etc. Like I am outside Chicago in a desirable area and no house we looked at had any sort of inspection waiving non sense going on. We asked for and received a small amount of credits for things from inspection. But every response is as if every individual market is like the worst market. I don't have experience outside my own but my experience was not similar to others I guess?

Then there is the conventional wisdom of needing to buy asap espoused by every boomer parent of ours wondering how dumb we could all be to be renting. This thread rightfully argues against this conventional wisdom. But I will definitely say i got the sense that it was a little too vociferous in its anti buying anti conventional wisdom mantra. Some of it might just be tongue and cheek never buy comments when someone is screwed by their lender or realtor or whatever. But I immediately felt an anti buy bias and read the rest of the thread through that lens.

I posted a relatively silly initial post and got reamed by motronic in a very unhelpful and rude way. I have found his posts in general to be helpful. But yeah some of it is just let me dump on this guy. That being said I am not any super savy financial or home buying guru. I am just a first time home buyer who on the whole has appreciated the advice from this thread taken with some eye rolls and grains of salt.

Slugworth
Feb 18, 2001

If two grown men can't make a pervert happy for a few minutes in order to watch a film about zombies, then maybe we should all just move to Iran!

1st_Panzer_Div. posted:

1.) Every metric in the US shows home owners are wealthier then renters. Their children do better. They live longer. They're happier. They get additional legal protections. They get on & off tax benefits. Causation aside, the correlations are very real.
It's been touched on, but this is an outrageously bad take. Profoundly bad. You even touch on it yourself by questioning the causation. If you buy a house, you'll live longer! Grim reapers hate this one trick!!

fknlo posted:

I feel like this has been a thing every year for how long now?
Like a year or two? I dunno, I guess I don't watch the market when I'm not actively buying, but I've bought 3 houses since 2006 (please lord let me be done), and this is the first time I felt like "holy poo poo, what the gently caress is happening in this market????". Every other time, I, you know, negotiated a lower price. Had an inspection. Didn't have to take a claw hammer to other people who were interested in the house. Wasn't advised that if I thought I might like this house, I should make an offer before seeing it. Didn't lose a house before it was even officially on the market.

I don't claim to be a market expert, but I'm reasonably confident this is infact the worst market in my adult life, and not just like, as an effect of everything sucking slightly more than any given previous year.

(I actually still did an inspection this time, because I honestly believe that's the one sacrifice you really shouldn't make, no matter the market).

Slugworth fucked around with this message at 21:46 on Jun 11, 2022

Motronic
Nov 6, 2009

Slugworth posted:

Like a year or two? I dunno, I guess I don't watch the market when I'm not actively buying, but I've bought 3 houses since 2006 (please lord let me be done), and this is the first time I felt like "holy poo poo, what the gently caress is happening in this market????". Every other time, I, you know, negotiated a lower price. Had an inspection. Didn't have to take a claw hammer to other people who were interested in the house. Wasn't advised that if I thought I might like this house, I should make an offer before seeing it. Didn't lose a house before it was even officially on the market.

I don't claim to be a market expert, but I'm reasonably confident this is infact the worst market in my adult life, and not just like, as an effect of everything sucking slightly more than any given previous year.

Yes. It's this. This is the reason I've been saying what I've been saying for as long as the market has been like this.

This is not normal. The market is operating irrationally on FOMO and greed. To make matters worse I've seen a huge increase in the number of lovely properties being listed (because it's a sellers market, so of course that's happening). Even if you get the right price on a property like that with an appropriate discount for the material defects (recent sales data indicates you likely won't) now what? It's brutal to get contractors to do any kind of work, they are charging a premium and even if you're doing your own work good luck getting materials. Any quote you got for something 3 months ago is probably invalid due to a combination of labor, inflation and supply chain issues requiring increased costs and potentially substitute products and materials.

So yes, people who recognize these things in this thread are absolutely telling you not to buy now. For those reasons.

You want mortgage advice? Great: here's your mortgage advice: if you're anywhere close to being able to afford the kind of house you're looking at someone will sell you the loan product you need. That's all you need to know past running the numbers. The mortgage is an annoying thing that you'll stress over at a low level for a few weeks/months, have spikes of agita at and around closing, but it's largely predictable and then it's over: but you still have the house you bought. And if you bought it wrong you're still screwed. These facts make it fairly low on the list of things one should be concerned with in the context of responsible home buying. If you're trying to be house poor you probably need to sweat it a lot to make sure someone finances your bad idea.

On market data: country-level data, even regional data - whatever. You're not buying tranches of mortgages. You're buying ONE INDIVIDUAL HOUSE. So all of these stats are fairly meaningless to an individual. Sure you want to buy in the right place for you, but that has more to do with where your job is located, your friends and family, the area schools, or whatever things matter to you. Not aggregated housing data. You need to know everything about this individual sample you are buying. It doesn't matter what other houses look like, because you are signing up for this particular ball of a difficult and expensive financial transaction that will require maintenance even if it's already in the shape you paid for it to be in. So stop worrying about broad market data: it's not helpful for individual purchasers of an owner occupied home in anything other than an exceptional situation where for some reason you had no idea the place you want to buy into is some outlier of a dumpster fire and you had no way of knowing something ahead of time like "the bay area is really expensive" or "there are parts of Detroit that were hit so badly in 2008 that large portions of neighborhoods are being bulldozed and the city is trying to get everyone to leave because it's too expensive to provide city services to the few remaining occupied homes". (remember that last one when you are being told that home ownership is the path to wealth and stability)

Motronic fucked around with this message at 22:14 on Jun 11, 2022

QuarkJets
Sep 8, 2008

1st_Panzer_Div. posted:

2011, but I can't disagree that it's from the wrong end of the industry and likely skews me towards "buy".

edit: Question - why is now such a terribly risky time to buy, but 2019, which had significant bubble/over-valued flags, was not?

For one thing, having to waive all contingencies inherently makes purchasing riskier; that should be obvious. That's the norm right now, therefore now is a riskier time to buy.

Less obvious is the "will they, won't they" of the housing market and a price correction; values shot way up, now interest rates have risen too, so will prices drop? No one knows. They have dropped in some areas (from the peak) but not others. No point in trying to time the market but unless your income is independent from your location then there is greater risk in buying now than 2 years ago.

It's a fine time to buy if you can afford it and can weather the risk of a price dip. On the scale of 10+ years, no one can predict whether any particular house was a wise purchase, but on average buying now will probably work out fine. That's the difference between what posters itt are talking about : one side keeps pointing to average outcomes and the other accurately points out that there's more to it than that.

QuarkJets fucked around with this message at 22:36 on Jun 11, 2022

1st_Panzer_Div.
May 11, 2005
Grimey Drawer
final thread post;
"Don't Time the Market" - General thread consensus, great advice.
"This is the worst time to buy in modern times" - Direct contradiction of the above, is literal timing the market.

"Waiving inspections is insane" - General thread consensus, great advice.
"Waiving inspections is why this is the worst time to buy" - Anecdotal market analysis - without supporting data. Waiving inspections has existed for decades, what's the rate of change, when does it make a market too risky, why, etc.

"Market analysis is pointless" - You can think this if you want.
"Banks don't care about individual houses" - Underwriting operates at an individual level. Analysis exists at individual property levels. Mainstream lending software utilizes individual property level data. People get fired over loving up just 1 house.

"This is the worst market in modern times" - This is also analysis at best, at worst just an individual opinion.

Me - "Why was 2019 different from today?" - no reply, some direct insults about my knowledge.

"There's lots of risks to house buying" - Great advice.

"Homeowners on average are wealthier then renters" - General thread consensus.
"You shouldn't buy now because of x,y,z financial reasons" - This pisses me off. People that have theirs, acknowledge the financial benefits, then advise others to not attempt to get theirs because their analysis, timing the market, "common sense" says this is the worst market to buy in.



FNMA First Time Homebuyer Class - This poo poo should be posted constantly. This is where you should start your home buying journey. It's excellent, free, & almost certainly will be required by your lender as a FTHB: https://singlefamily.fanniemae.com/originating-underwriting/mortgage-products/homeownership-education

FNMA LLPA - This is the exact, actual way your loan is going to be priced based on down payment & fico.https://singlefamily.fanniemae.com/media/9391/display

I'm stoked to be getting mine, I encourage you to go out and get yours.

Motronic
Nov 6, 2009

1st_Panzer_Div. posted:

final thread post;
"Don't Time the Market" - General thread consensus, great advice.
"This is the worst time to buy in modern times" - Direct contradiction of the above, is literal timing the market.

"Timing the market" talk is financial. The concerns here are far beyond financial. Again, you were/are on the financial end of this and absolutely everything you seem to post about is tainted by that plus the fact that every prospective homeowner you would come into contact with/have data on had already made the decision to or had already bought a home.

1st_Panzer_Div. posted:

"Waiving inspections is insane" - General thread consensus, great advice.
"Waiving inspections is why this is the worst time to buy" - Anecdotal market analysis - without supporting data. Waiving inspections has existed for decades, what's the rate of change, when does it make a market too risky, why, etc.

Are you talking about waiving inspections or waiving inspection contingencies? I'm not sure you understand the difference and I'm positive you don't understand the difference in different markets. NC is a particularly insane one with their current usurious "due diligence" custom.

1st_Panzer_Div. posted:

"Market analysis is pointless" - You can think this if you want.
"Banks don't care about individual houses" - Underwriting operates at an individual level. Analysis exists at individual property levels. Mainstream lending software utilizes individual property level data. People get fired over loving up just 1 house.

Who said banks don't care about individual houses? I'm guessing nobody.

But a qualified buyer buying an owner occupied property that they can afford has absolutely nothing to worry about. Because the end of the business you are in requires people like that and people who are even worse off but deluded enough to buy anyway to pay for it to exist.

1st_Panzer_Div. posted:

"This is the worst market in modern times" - This is also analysis at best, at worst just an individual opinion.

I gave multiple reasons. You have given none. So, uh......are you going to even make an attempt at refuting this?

1st_Panzer_Div. posted:

Me - "Why was 2019 different from today?" - no reply, some direct insults about my knowledge.

See above.

1st_Panzer_Div. posted:

"There's lots of risks to house buying" - Great advice.

See above. See basically all of my previous posts, etc. Not even sure what you're on about here.

1st_Panzer_Div. posted:

"Homeowners on average are wealthier then renters" - General thread consensus.
"You shouldn't buy now because of x,y,z financial reasons" - This pisses me off. People that have theirs, acknowledge the financial benefits, then advise others to not attempt to get theirs because their analysis, timing the market, "common sense" says this is the worst market to buy in.

You are pissed off because you are emotionally tied up in this because you are buying a house right now and don't like the things you are hearing in this thread. Some or all of which may or may not apply to you as an individual and the individual home you are trying to buy and the means and contract that happened to enter this deal. But it's obviously othering you a lot. That's very, very apparent and a lot of what you're posting as general advice stinks of justification of your own current situation.

That's okay, we're all human and I get it. But don't expect to not get called out on it.

QuarkJets
Sep 8, 2008

1st_Panzer_Div. posted:

final thread post;
"Don't Time the Market" - General thread consensus, great advice.
"This is the worst time to buy in modern times" - Direct contradiction of the above, is literal timing the market.

Those are not contradictory. The second statement does not preclude tomorrow being an even worse time to buy than today. It is an observation that prices are strangely high now, not a prediction of where prices will be later.

1st_Panzer_Div. posted:

"Waiving inspections is insane" - General thread consensus, great advice.
"Waiving inspections is why this is the worst time to buy" - Anecdotal market analysis - without supporting data. Waiving inspections has existed for decades, what's the rate of change, when does it make a market too risky, why, etc.

These are the same statement, you're just acting like one sentence is bad for no reason. If waiving inspections is bad then a market where all inspections have to be waived is inherently riskier. This is not controversial.

1st_Panzer_Div. posted:

Me - "Why was 2019 different from today?" - no reply, some direct insults about my knowledge.

I replied to your post, what does lying about this accomplish?

1st_Panzer_Div. posted:



"Homeowners on average are wealthier then renters" - General thread consensus.
"You shouldn't buy now because of x,y,z financial reasons" - This pisses me off. People that have theirs, acknowledge the financial benefits, then advise others to not attempt to get theirs because their analysis, timing the market, "common sense" says this is the worst market to buy in.

Quote a post where this has been said. Even just one. And it can't be about that person's specific finances, you're making a claim that's broader than that.

You lied earlier so I suspect that you're lying again here.

QuarkJets fucked around with this message at 02:04 on Jun 12, 2022

BonoMan
Feb 20, 2002

Jade Ear Joe
Well this thread sucks now.

moana
Jun 18, 2005

one of the more intellectual satire communities on the web
Nah, he said that was his last post in the thread, if he comes back now to reply just report it.

Slugworth
Feb 18, 2001

If two grown men can't make a pervert happy for a few minutes in order to watch a film about zombies, then maybe we should all just move to Iran!

BonoMan posted:

Well this thread sucks now.
This is a historically bad time to post in this thread. It's fine for those of us already posting in it, but I strongly advise others not to.

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Inner Light
Jan 2, 2020



^^^^ :drat:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VgkD1scIkKw

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