USCE Summer 2022: You can't change the crisis settings.

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > USCE Summer 2022: You can't change the crisis settings.

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Fritz the Horse: Dec 26, 2019; ... of course!

Just a reminder that Koos posted last night to keep discussion of election participation fresh or bring new info. Arguing over whether voting for Dems is pointless vs. the bare minimum civic engagement vs. our only hope etc is a favorite pastime of this thread and has been done pretty exhaustively. Please try and contribute something new or interesting to the discussion if you're going to post about it here. Or if you'd like, you might revive the US Politics and Voting thread from last fall: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3986700

As stated in the rules, this is enforced fairly leniently. But posting slogans, catchphrases, or otherwise low-content stuff doesn't add anything to discussion, especially on such a well-trodden subject.

# ? Jun 27, 2022 20:17

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# ? May 25, 2024 09:49

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

Automata 10 Pack posted:

Lol Comey is living a chill life and is not feeling any guilt whatsoever.

He has literally never examined or admitted the irony of his actions, which is pretty un loving forgivable when you use Reinhold Niebuhr as your posting handle.

# ? Jun 27, 2022 20:20

Automata 10 Pack: Jun 21, 2007; Ten games published by Automata, on one cassette

The point of bringing up the dismantling of democracy is that a lot of folks here are seemingly delusional about their options after the Republicans take control again.

No, the destruction of the Democratic Party isn�t going to lead to a more progressive party that�ll correct our losses and then some. You won�t even get to participate electorally anymore. Purple states that�ll switch red will stay red from here on out. The voter suppression laws have been very successful so far, with Wisconsin�s handing the state over to Trump in 2016. People are going to be dismayed at how effective the ones recently passed in Texas and Florida will be. And this is the route the Republicans are going forward with.

MAYBE, if the midterms are an upset, there is a minute chance they will look at the 1/6th committee event and think the route is bad optics and walk it back for a year or two and maybe something can be done about it then. But lol, that�s a cope thought.

Sorry, the country sucks and we�re on a trajectory towards some real bad poo poo. Please don�t participate in the acceleration of the bad poo poo.

Automata 10 Pack fucked around with this message at 20:29 on Jun 27, 2022

# ? Jun 27, 2022 20:22

Automata 10 Pack: Jun 21, 2007; Ten games published by Automata, on one cassette

some plague rats posted:

How, exactly? I mean if you've got any ideas I'd love to hear them

Find out if leaving the country is an option for themselves, and if not then they should arm themselves (as a means of self defense) and organize with their local community.

# ? Jun 27, 2022 20:24

Kalit: Nov 6, 2006; The great thing about the thousands of slaughtered Palestinian children is that they can't pull away when you fondle them or sniff their hair.

That's a Biden success story.

Automata 10 Pack posted:

Find out if leaving the country is an option for themselves, and if not then they should arm themselves (as a means of self defense) and organize with their local community.

For the [figuratively] millionth time, arming yourself for "self defense" is counter productive. Please read through these summaries/studies to find out why advocating for people to arm themselves for this reason is not smart: https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/hicrc/firearms-research/gun-threats-and-self-defense-gun-use-2/

# ? Jun 27, 2022 20:28

Automata 10 Pack: Jun 21, 2007; Ten games published by Automata, on one cassette

Kalit posted:

For the [figuratively] millionth time, arming yourself for "self defense" is counter productive. Please read through these summaries/studies to find out why advocating for people to arm themselves for this reason is not smart: https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/hicrc/firearms-research/gun-threats-and-self-defense-gun-use-2/

Cool statistics for a good country and not one where the state works with militias to murder you and praise the murderers like with Rittenhouse.

An unarmed population is 1000% easier to control than an armed one.

# ? Jun 27, 2022 20:31

some plague rats: Jun 5, 2012; by Fluffdaddy

Automata 10 Pack posted:

Cool statistics for a good country and not one where the state works with militias to murder you and praise the murderers like with Rittenhouse.

An unarmed population is 1000% easier to control than an armed one.

I mean... at what point are you, personally, going to start shooting cops? What's your line in the sand? Not a gotcha, just interested how exactly you figure this population control is going to work

# ? Jun 27, 2022 20:36

Oracle: Oct 9, 2004

Automata 10 Pack posted:

Find out if leaving the country is an option for themselves, and if not then they should arm themselves (as a means of self defense) and organize with their local community.

I will note, interestingly enough, that Germany passed a law in 2021 to allow (with a shitton of stipulations) someone whose ancestors never claimed foreign citizenship after immigrating between a set period of time to apply for retroactive citizenship that was lost due to either race discrimination (Jews stripped of citizenship) or sex discrimination (a woman marrying a man of another country automatically lost her citizenship). There are a ton of caveats and other stipulations depending on the degree so you'd have to go here to read up on it but yeah its possible to get German citizenship until 2029 if you actually do qualify and can prove it with documentation. You can find lots of help in the germancitizenship reddit group as well.
You can find info about getting other countries citizenship here.

# ? Jun 27, 2022 20:36

some plague rats: Jun 5, 2012; by Fluffdaddy

Isn't the whole "leave the country" thing just unbelievably privileged nonsense and completely out of the possible reach of the people who are actually going to be effected by this? Remember when Bush won and all the rich white libs were about to move to Canada, and we all dismissed them as idiots, and did any of them actually do it? What's different this time around?

# ? Jun 27, 2022 20:40

Kalit: Nov 6, 2006; The great thing about the thousands of slaughtered Palestinian children is that they can't pull away when you fondle them or sniff their hair.

That's a Biden success story.

Automata 10 Pack posted:

Cool statistics for a good country and not one where the state works with militias to murder you and praise the murderers like with Rittenhouse.

An unarmed population is 1000% easier to control than an armed one.

.....are you trying to make the claim that an armed populace could put up a theoretical fight against the government? If so, I think you should look up the types of weaponry that the government possesses.

If you need a [tiny] concrete example of how useless guns are in that scenario, look at what the government did to MOVE.

# ? Jun 27, 2022 20:40

Lib and let die: Aug 26, 2004

some plague rats posted:

Isn't the whole "leave the country" thing just unbelievably privileged nonsense and completely out of the possible reach of the people who are actually going to be effected by this? Remember when Bush won and all the rich white libs were about to move to Canada, and we all dismissed them as idiots, and did any of them actually do it? What's different this time around?

I'm pretty sure Sam Bee made good on the uh..."threat" to leave the US, so, yeah, there's that.

# ? Jun 27, 2022 20:42

FLIPADELPHIA: Apr 27, 2007; Heavy Shit; Grimey Drawer

some plague rats posted:

Isn't the whole "leave the country" thing just unbelievably privileged nonsense and completely out of the possible reach of the people who are actually going to be effected by this? Remember when Bush won and all the rich white libs were about to move to Canada, and we all dismissed them as idiots, and did any of them actually do it? What's different this time around?

You honestly don't see the difference between 2001 and what's happening with SCOTUS right now? Abortion is now illegal in Oklahoma and Missouri, and will be illegal in like 20 other states within a couple weeks.

# ? Jun 27, 2022 20:43

-Blackadder-: Jan 2, 2007; Game....Blouses.

Pro read NYT News Analysis that lays out the recent big Conservative power plays along with a map of the battle ahead.

"NYT posted:

Supreme Court Throws Abortion to an Unlevel State Playing Field

The Supreme Court�s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade shifted the abortion fight to state legislatures, where gerrymandering has given Republicans an advantage.

In his concurring opinion to the Supreme Court�s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh struck a note of optimism that democracy and the will of the people would prevail, even on the agonizing issue of a woman�s right to end a pregnancy.

�The nine unelected Members of this Court do not possess the constitutional authority to override the democratic process,� he wrote, adding that the court�s decision merely �restores the people�s authority to address the issue of abortion through the processes of democratic self-government.�

States, in other words, hold the power.

For Democrats, that is extraordinarily bad news: In many states, including Wisconsin, Ohio, Georgia and Florida, abortion�s new battleground is decidedly unlevel, tilted by years of Republican efforts to gerrymander state legislatures while Democrats largely focused on federal politics. As abortion becomes illegal in half of the country, democratic self-governance may be nearly out of reach for some voters.

By neutralizing federal rights and powers, the Supreme Court is turning states into battle zones. That goes beyond abortion and includes voting, immigration and civil rights. And if, as expected, the court restricts the federal government�s ability to regulate carbon dioxide, state governments, stepping in for a gridlocked Congress, will be left to address climate change as well. That would leave the future of the fight to lawmakers in places such as Sacramento and Oklahoma City.

Even as leaders of conservative advocacy groups celebrated a landmark victory on Friday decades in the making, they said that they were already gearing up for the next phase of the battle in statehouses and state Supreme Courts.

Thirteen states have so-called trigger laws designed to effectively ban abortion in the wake of the Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v. Wade.

Others could look to strike the right to abortion from state constitutions. And still others, like Michigan and Wisconsin, have old laws predating Roe that ban abortion and that abortion rights advocates and political leaders are now trying to block.

�There is definitely going to be a lot of action in the states,� said Carrie Severino, the president of the Judicial Crisis Network, a conservative legal advocacy group that has helped elevate Republican judges. �The challenge is which states are going to have state courts that are likely to be well to the left of the people."

Democrats may have won the popular presidential vote in five out of the last six elections, but Republicans control 23 state legislatures while Democrats lead 14 � with 12 bicameral state legislatures divided between the parties. (Nebraska�s legislature is elected on a nonpartisan basis.)

In a very real sense, the country is pulling apart, with blocks of liberal states on the West Coast and in the Northeast moving ahead with one agenda as the conservative center of the country moves in the opposite direction. State compacts on the coasts, for instance, have moved forward to stem emissions of climate-warming pollution while fossil fuel-dependent states in the center press for more production of oil, gas and coal.

The divisions have only been compounded in Washington, where Congress�s extremely narrow Democratic majority has been unable to pass significant legislation on climate change, voting rights, immigration or abortion rights, leaving those weighty issues to the courts and regulatory agencies. The Supreme Court�s 6-3 conservative majority is now making it clear that such matters must be decided by the people�s representatives. With Washington in gridlock, those representatives will have to be found in the states.

�What we are seeing is a pendulum that is swinging back to state power over fundamental rights,� said S. Karthick Ramakrishnan, a professor of public policy at the University of California, Riverside. �This is the result of decades of investment by movement conservatives.�

In states where the voting populations are ideologically divided, the political direction of governance in state capitals may be driven more by partisan power structures put in place by politicians than by public opinion. Even though the Supreme Court says it wants to empower voters, it ruled in 2019 that federal courts did not have the power to hear challenges to partisan gerrymandering. Its decision in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission also removed many controls on campaign contributions, making it that much harder for statehouse battles to be waged in anything like a fair fight.

Unshackled by the Supreme Court and often largely unopposed by Democrats, conservative organizations backed by billionaires like Charles Koch � including the American Legislative Exchange Council and the Republican State Leadership Committee � set out more than a decade ago to dominate policymaking at the state level. And now, unfettered by the constitutional rights under Roe, that dominance can come to fruition on abortion access, often regardless of public opinion.

�Kavanaugh�s na�ve theory is that the people speak and the legislature listens,� said Samuel S. Wang, the director of the Gerrymandering Project at Princeton University. �But for that to happen, you need a mechanism for their influence to be felt, and in some states, what you have are political parties building a system to keep themselves in power.�

In Ohio, Republicans hold an undeniable edge statewide, but it�s nothing like their 64-35 edge in the Statehouse or their 25-8 edge in the State Senate. Those advantages will likely yield a near-total abortion ban in the coming weeks. Because the gerrymandering of state legislative lines is so extreme, the only competition that Republican lawmakers fear is from even more conservative Republicans.

In Wisconsin, Democrats hold virtually every statewide office, including governor. Yet, waves of gerrymandering have left Republicans with close to a supermajority in the State Senate and Assembly. That means an abortion ban that was passed in 1849, when only white men could vote, is set to go back into force now that Roe v. Wade has been overturned.

�Because the structure of Wisconsin�s ultragerrymandered maps are so rigged against small-d democracy, we are going to have a law on the books that the overwhelming majority of Wisconsinites oppose,� said Ben Wikler, the chair of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin.

Georgia voted in 2020 for President Biden and for two Democratic senators, but those same voters barely made a dent in the state�s Senate and House. With the repeal of Roe v. Wade, Georgia�s law that passed in 2019 banning abortion after six weeks will soon take effect, and state lawmakers say they could tighten it.

Similar imbalances show up in Florida and North Carolina, where narrowly divided voting populations live under statehouses and state supreme courts that will determine the future of abortion with little need to reflect public opinion. Texas recharged the national battle over abortion last year after the Supreme Court refused to block a law passed by its Republican-controlled Legislature that banned abortions after six weeks and allowed deputized ordinary citizens to enforce the law.

The repeal of Roe v. Wade will trigger another law virtually eliminating the right to abortion in Texas in the coming weeks. Republicans are now discussing legislation to potentially allow district attorneys to prosecute people who are involved in abortions in neighboring counties and criminally punish anyone who helps a woman get an abortion in another state.

State Representative Briscoe Cain, a Republican, called the overturning of Roe v. Wade �a victory� for judicial philosophy.

�The issue should have been left to the states the entire time,� he said.

The state push has been intentional. The landmark Civil Rights Act of 1964 and the Voting Rights Act of 1965, passed after years of a bloody civil rights struggle that swelled from the ground up, helped conservatives recognize the importance of state power, Dr. Ramakrishnan said. Over the next five decades, conservatives heavily invested in legal scholarship and state level advocacy, as veterans of those earlier civil rights battles and newer crops of progressives tended to focus on federal policy.

�You can think of it as an erosion of rights from below,� he said.

In 2010, after successive Democratic waves left Republican power at a low ebb, Republican organizations devised what they called Project Redmap, pouring $30 million into state legislative races. They were confident that a backlash against Barack Obama, who was president then, in a redistricting year would yield a stranglehold on state capitals for years to come.

It worked.

Democrats insist now that they can fight back. The power of issues rising to the forefront this summer � not just abortion, but also gun violence and the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection � could energize Democratic voters and sway enough Republicans to defy the partisan breakdowns of some gerrymandered districts.

�Your ability to cast a ballot or your access to abortion care is going to be more dependent on ZIP code more than it has in the past,� said Lindsay Langholz, a director at the American Constitution Society, a progressive legal organization.

Laphonza Butler, the president of Emily�s List, the powerful political action committee that has helped elect hundreds of women who support abortion rights, said her organization began shifting its focus to state governor�s races and legislative elections around 2016.

That shift came about as Republicans chipped away at the right to abortion. Emily�s List is now centered on backing Democratic candidates running in key states, including Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan and Stacey Abrams, who is seeking the governorship in Georgia.

�We are as angry as everyone else, and we are prepared to meet this moment,� Ms. Butler said.

# ? Jun 27, 2022 20:44

selec: Sep 6, 2003

Kalit posted:

.....are you trying to make the claim that an armed populace could put up a theoretical fight against the government? If so, I think you should look up the types of weaponry that the government possesses. If you need a [tiny] concrete example of how useless guns are in that scenario, look at what the government did to MOVE.

Of course we�re not, because the government isn�t the only force for oppression in the lives of the marginalized.

You�ve been told this several times in several iterations of this exact thread but it does not seem to stick for whatever reasons.

Reactionary street violence targeting marginalized groups happens today, and the rates and geographic spread of where it happens will likely increase in the months and years to come.

Armed self-defense isn�t really for meeting cops at the protest (at least in current contexts) it�s for when a group of Proud Boys show up to your door to Teach You A Lesson because of something you posted online.

# ? Jun 27, 2022 20:44

HonorableTB: Dec 22, 2006

There's a lot of claims being made that prominent Dems/Biden staffers are off the record and on background making statements that Biden shouldn't run and is in decline, etc. Can someone please post those?

# ? Jun 27, 2022 20:45

Kalit: Nov 6, 2006; The great thing about the thousands of slaughtered Palestinian children is that they can't pull away when you fondle them or sniff their hair.

That's a Biden success story.

selec posted:

Of course we�re not, because the government isn�t the only force for oppression in the lives of the marginalized.

You�ve been told this several times in several iterations of this exact thread but it does not seem to stick for whatever reasons.

Reactionary street violence targeting marginalized groups happens today, and the rates and geographic spread of where it happens will likely increase in the months and years to come.

Armed self-defense isn�t really for meeting cops at the protest (at least in current contexts) it�s for when a group of Proud Boys show up to your door to Teach You A Lesson because of something you posted online.

And show me how the studies that I have referenced [over and over again] magically do not apply to this scenario? Maybe if you'd post facts/studies instead of anecdotal/theoretical situations, I would actually believe you :rolleyes:

# ? Jun 27, 2022 20:48

Willa Rogers: Mar 11, 2005

HonorableTB posted:

There's a lot of claims being made that prominent Dems/Biden staffers are off the record and on background making statements that Biden shouldn't run and is in decline, etc. Can someone please post those?

Someone on twitter or someone itt?

I mentioned (once or twice) that Axelrod has gone on the record saying Biden shouldn't run, and the same story (NYT? Newsweek? We discussed it when it came out several weeks ago) had others speaking on background or off the record but it's unclear who's making the "lot of claims" that you stated.

eta: Here's the NYT story that we discussed when it came out on June 11.

Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 20:59 on Jun 27, 2022

# ? Jun 27, 2022 20:57

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

Another Republican making the "legitimate rape" argument. It's a woman and a House race this time, so it might not get as much attention as Aiken, but the move seems to be either to not address whether you support rape/incest exceptions or to just claim that you can't get pregnant from real rape. She didn't clarify if incest counts as real rape.

She followed up by explaining that if you "force" sex, then you can't get pregnant because "there's so much going on" down there in the body.

quote:

Well, maybe because there's so much going on in the body. I don't know. I haven't, you know, seen any studies. But if I'm processing what you're saying, it wouldn't surprise me. Because it's not something that's happening organically. You're forcing it. The individual, the male, is doing it as quickly � it's not like, you know � and so I can see why there is truth to that.

https://twitter.com/nedoliver/status/1541379792246902784

# ? Jun 27, 2022 21:00

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

Also, Pelosi says the House is going to vote to on the WHPA (which codified Roe and much more expansive abortion rights than those guaranteed by Roe) again and calls for the Senate to eliminate the filibuster.

But, like last time they passed it, it will almost certainly die to the filibuster in the Senate.

They are also passing a bill to ban health apps from selling user data that may have a chance of passing the Senate.

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1541506977838276611

# ? Jun 27, 2022 21:04

Uncle Boogeyman: Jul 22, 2007

some plague rats posted:

I mean... at what point are you, personally, going to start shooting cops?

I�m no lawyer, but just for the benefit of anyone who happens to be reading: if someone asks you this, do not answer.

# ? Jun 27, 2022 21:05

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

Uncle Boogeyman posted:

I�m no lawyer, but just for the benefit of anyone who happens to be reading: if someone asks you this, do not answer.

You actually can answer with no legal consequences as long as it isn't a declaration of imminent intent. Or a threat against a specific person that is unequivocal and transmitted to them or made in such a way that they would likely see it. U.S. law gives slander and threatening language wide berths and high barriers to prove criminal liability.

Not a good idea to say that to a cop, though.

Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 21:10 on Jun 27, 2022

# ? Jun 27, 2022 21:08

Willa Rogers: Mar 11, 2005

Joe Cunningham, a former SC Dem rep, has also called for Pres. Pop-Pop to make it one & done.

The WaPo surveyed 12 of its columnists on whether Biden should run for reelection and the notable no's are, imo:

Eugene Robinson
Greg Sargent
EJ Dionne

Hugh Hewitt was the 4th no but who gives a poo poo what he thinks. Otoh, if you believe J. Rubin, J. Capehart & M. McArdle to be fonts of wisdom, then place your bets on yes.

Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 21:18 on Jun 27, 2022

# ? Jun 27, 2022 21:10

Uncle Boogeyman: Jul 22, 2007

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

You actually can answer with no legal consequences as long as it isn't an declaration of imminent intent. Or a threat against a specific person that is unequivocal and transmitted to them or made in such a way that they would likely see it. U.S. law gives slander and threatening language wide berths and high barriers to prove criminal liability.

Again, I�m no lawyer, but for the benefit of anyone reading, definitely do not listen to the above advice

# ? Jun 27, 2022 21:11

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

Willa Rogers posted:

Joe Cunningham, a SC Dem rep, has also called for Pres. Pop-Pop to make it one & done.

Joe Cunningham isn't a Congressman. He only served 1 term and then lost his re-election.

# ? Jun 27, 2022 21:12

Willa Rogers: Mar 11, 2005

^^^ Thanks! I'll edit that post!

Whoa, a lot more libs are calling for Biden to retire than I initially thought:

Why Biden Shouldn't Run in 2024

In NBC interview, Gov. Whitmer won't say whether Biden should run again

Polling:

Most Americans Don't Want Biden or Trump to Run Again: Poll:

quote:

On the question regarding should former President Donald Trump run for President in 2024, 55 percent of people said no while 31 percent said yes.

***

When asked whether Biden should run again for President in 2024, 64 percent of people said no while 21 percent said yes.

I can find more links for you, HTB, if you'd like!

# ? Jun 27, 2022 21:17

Automata 10 Pack: Jun 21, 2007; Ten games published by Automata, on one cassette

some plague rats posted:

I mean... at what point are you, personally, going to start shooting cops? What's your line in the sand? Not a gotcha, just interested how exactly you figure this population control is going to work

Nice fedpost bro, where�s your wire?

No, don�t go running around killing police.

Guns in this circumstance are a deterrent. Cops and Militias are cowards. Militias are larpers who will not engage if there any chance of real combat and Cops become way more weary to enact their authority if the community is organized and armed. Look at the black communities police occupied during the war on drugs.

Which trans person would be easier to victimize in their own home? One that is unarmed and isolated or one that is part of a neighborhood community that is known to be armed?

# ? Jun 27, 2022 21:22

HonorableTB: Dec 22, 2006

Willa Rogers posted:

Joe Cunningham, a former SC Dem rep, has also called for Pres. Pop-Pop to make it one & done.

The WaPo surveyed 12 of its columnists on whether Biden should run for reelection and the notable no's are, imo:

Eugene Robinson
Greg Sargent
EJ Dionne

Hugh Hewitt was the 4th no but who gives a poo poo what he thinks. Otoh, if you believe J. Rubin, J. Capehart & M. McArdle to be fonts of wisdom, then place your bets on yes.

Thank you Willa, I'll give those a read

# ? Jun 27, 2022 21:22

Willa Rogers: Mar 11, 2005

HonorableTB posted:

Thank you Willa, I'll give those a read

The NYT story was the biggie imo.

# ? Jun 27, 2022 21:25

Cimber: Feb 3, 2014

Willa Rogers posted:

Someone on twitter or someone itt?

I mentioned (once or twice) that Axelrod has gone on the record saying Biden shouldn't run, and the same story (NYT? Newsweek? We discussed it when it came out several weeks ago) had others speaking on background or off the record but it's unclear who's making the "lot of claims" that you stated.

eta: Here's the NYT story that we discussed when it came out on June 11.

i think the broader issue is that the entirety of the democratic leadership is well past their prime. We need leaders in their 40s and 50s to take over, not Pelosi (82 years old), Schumer (71) or Biden (79). These folks are from another age of politics, they don't get their elbows out like they need to. We need leaders who are going to fight and not be afraid to take some hits.

# ? Jun 27, 2022 21:26

Kalit: Nov 6, 2006; The great thing about the thousands of slaughtered Palestinian children is that they can't pull away when you fondle them or sniff their hair.

That's a Biden success story.

Automata 10 Pack posted:

Nice fedpost bro, where�s your wire?

No, don�t go running around killing police.

Guns in this circumstance are a deterrent. Cops and Militias are cowards. Militias are larpers who will not engage if there any chance of real combat and Cops become way more weary to enact their authority if the community is organized and armed. Look at the black communities police occupied during the war on drugs.

Which trans person would be easier to victimize in their own home? One that is unarmed and isolated or one that is part of a neighborhood community that is known to be armed?

Easily, the one that has a gun in their home: https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/full/10.7326/M21-3762

quote:

Overall rates of homicide were more than twice as high among cohabitants of handgun owners than among cohabitants of nonowners (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.33 [95% CI, 1.78 to 3.05]). These elevated rates were driven largely by higher rates of homicide by firearm (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.83 [CI, 2.05 to 3.91]). Among homicides occurring at home, cohabitants of owners had sevenfold higher rates of being fatally shot by a spouse or intimate partner (adjusted hazard ratio, 7.16 [CI, 4.04 to 12.69]); 84% of these victims were female.

E: To be fair, we can even look at the higher rates of violence against LGBT people overall. Based upon this study:

quote:

LGBT people are about 6 times more likely to experience violence by someone who is well known to them and about 2.5 times more likely to undergo it at the hands of a stranger, compared to non-LGBT people.

I am far from a statistics expert, but I'll give it a shot. Anyone who knows more about it, please correct me. There's definitely assumptions here, but hopefully it's just noise.

So we have a 2.5x increase of violence against LGBT people from strangers. And a 2x increase homicide rate of people with guns in their homes. So only if the increase of violence from strangers is >80% ish homicides occurring in these armed communities, would it even out the increased homicide threat of the above study.

And that's not even trying to adjust the homicide rate with guns in the home to take into account that LGBT people are 6 times more likely to experience violence by someone who is well known to them.

E2: Clarified my summary.

Kalit fucked around with this message at 21:54 on Jun 27, 2022

# ? Jun 27, 2022 21:29

HonorableTB: Dec 22, 2006

Thanks for the sources, Willa - reading through them, the case against Biden running only gets reinforced with the more time he's in office. Biden's biggest weakness is his age and I've always felt that, but then again I feel that about Bernie too, and I did in 2016 when I caucused for him. That Bernie had a heart attack during the primary just made that feeling validated, and I halfway expect to wake up to a CNN headline about Biden having a stroke or something almost every day. This problem extends to Nancy Pelosi, Feinstein, Hoyer, hell pick a name out of a hat and they're likely over the age of 70 if the name pool is the Democratic Party leadership.

The Soviet Union had a problem with gerontocracy too - how long until we get our American version of Brezhnev-Andropov-Chernenko all in one term?

# ? Jun 27, 2022 21:34

Willa Rogers: Mar 11, 2005

Cimber posted:

i think the broader issue is that the entirety of the democratic leadership is well past their prime. We need leaders in their 40s and 50s to take over, not Pelosi (82 years old), Schumer (71) or Biden (79). These folks are from another age of politics, they don't get their elbows out like they need to. We need leaders who are going to fight and not be afraid to take some hits.

Oh, I agree.

One more link on the matter bc it's Jeff Greenfield, and I find him usually to be pretty politically astute.

quote:

[...]Biden�s age is a problem far more serious than the one Reagan faced more than 42 years ago. When Reagan first ran, he was � or at least appeared to be � in fine physical condition. (Here�s what he looked and sounded like when he began his fall campaign.) But his mental faculties were challenged through the race, as reporters cited his conflating of fiction with fact, and his inability at times to remember his own proposals. By the time he ran for reelection, those doubts grew louder � especially after his first debate, when he stumbled through a number of answers. That debate with Walter Mondale prompted doubts about his acuity even in conservative outlets like the Wall Street Journal editorial page. He deflected those worries in his second debate with his famous quip that he would not attack Walter Mondale for his �youth and inexperience.� It got laughs, but there were enough concerns during his second term that his aides began to discreetly ponder the need to invoke the 25th Amendment�s tools when facing presidential disability.

With Biden, the signs of age are more performative than substantive; a slowing of movement, occasional confusion over words (a lifelong by-product of stuttering), and the determination of Fox News and other adversaries to portray � sometimes with creative video editing � every verbal stumble as conclusive evidence of dementia or cognitive decline. But overhanging all of that is the first digit of the age he will be if he runs again at nearly 82. No candidate has ever run, and no president has ever served, at age 80 or above.

It�s possible to cite any number of figures who were fully capable well into old, even very old, age. Pablo Casals was composing and conducting into his 90�s; Roger Angell was turning out elegant prose poems to baseball as he neared his centennial; John Paul Stevens was delivering sharp Supreme Court opinions at 90.

But the presidency is a very different question. The pitiless demands of the office age pretty much everyone who holds the job (just compare pictures of Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Obama, three of our youngest chief executives, at the beginning and end of their tenures). As a personal matter: I am just a few months younger than Biden. I like to think I am more or less in possession of most of my faculties (sarcastic responses can be Tweeted to me @greenfield64). But the demands on me, and my contemporaries, are several orders of magnitude less than they are for a president. The inexorable impact of age � �senior moments� with aphasic-like groping with the proper names of a movie star or author, the increased power of gravity � afflict more or less all of us at this point in our lives. Which is why, even among friends most alarmed at the prospect of a second Trump presidency, there is real discomfort about the notion of president who would be 86 at the end of his term. Among the citizenry at large, according to the Wall Street Journal, less than a third think Biden will run again).

Greenfield goes on to point out that the Dems would feel compelled to nominate Harris, given the record of veeps being nominated for pres as well as the Black & female Dem constituencies, but also points out that she comes with "a 747 full of baggage."

So pretty much what many of us (and pollsters) have said about Harris, and what a few of us have said about Biden.

# ? Jun 27, 2022 21:36

Goatse James Bond: Mar 28, 2010; If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

some plague rats posted:

Isn't the whole "leave the country" thing just unbelievably privileged nonsense and completely out of the possible reach of the people who are actually going to be effected by this? Remember when Bush won and all the rich white libs were about to move to Canada, and we all dismissed them as idiots, and did any of them actually do it? What's different this time around?

Ditto even for "the oppressed classes should simply leave red states lol", as should become immediately obvious when there's recently been a spotlight on how many women are completely dependent on charity to leave the state just to get an abortion. Uprooting your entire family, job, and life is probably harder than that.

# ? Jun 27, 2022 21:38

Automata 10 Pack: Jun 21, 2007; Ten games published by Automata, on one cassette

some plague rats posted:

Isn't the whole "leave the country" thing just unbelievably privileged nonsense and completely out of the possible reach of the people who are actually going to be effected by this? Remember when Bush won and all the rich white libs were about to move to Canada, and we all dismissed them as idiots, and did any of them actually do it? What's different this time around?

If people who are targeted by the alt-right are capable of immigrating somewhere else, then they should. And the morally good thing to do is encourage them to do it. If you are saying that we should discourage it because those who can are �privileged� then you are as evil as the alt-right, who enjoys it when gay people suffer.

Kalit posted:

.....are you trying to make the claim that an armed populace could put up a theoretical fight against the government? If so, I think you should look up the types of weaponry that the government possesses.

If you need a [tiny] concrete example of how useless guns are in that scenario, look at what the government did to MOVE.

Lol no, I�m not advocating for braveheart and we�ll never see a braveheart. This is about organizing and self defense, so we do not have a future where you are politely pulled out your house to be lobotomized because you googled �am I trans�. At least make it harder for the state to do that.

# ? Jun 27, 2022 21:39

DEEP STATE PLOT: Aug 13, 2008; Yes...Ha ha ha...YES!

biden not running and dems falling in line behind harris might be the only realistic possibility worse than biden running again

but they really just have fuckin nobody else

# ? Jun 27, 2022 21:40

Cimber: Feb 3, 2014

I'm trying to think. In the last 30 years we've had 18 years of democratic leadership and 12 of Republican. What are the big signature policy changes the democrats can point to, and what are the big ones that the republicans can point to?

Republicans:
R v. Wade
War on terror
Iraq war
Huge tax cuts
Medicare plan D for seniors

Democrats:
Obamacare.

# ? Jun 27, 2022 21:44

Willa Rogers: Mar 11, 2005

DEEP STATE PLOT posted:

biden not running and dems falling in line behind harris might be the only realistic possibility worse than biden running again

but they really just have fuckin nobody else

I would love to think that Harris could be talked out of it with a lucrative lobbyist or Netflix deal or something (CA gov if Newsom goes for the presidency?) but I have no idea where her hubris-o-meter is these days, or where it'll be by 2024.

Hard to believe that Dems would fall on their swords over Harris but Clyburn's already said he'd support her if Biden retires, and Greenfield's got a point about other choices pissing off core demos.

# ? Jun 27, 2022 21:47

Jaxyon: Mar 7, 2016; I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.

Cimber posted:

I'm trying to think. In the last 30 years we've had 18 years of democratic leadership and 12 of Republican. What are the big signature policy changes the democrats can point to, and what are the big ones that the republicans can point to?

Republicans:
R v. Wade
War on terror
Iraq war
Huge tax cuts
Medicare plan D for seniors

Democrats:
Obamacare.

While I agree Dems are listless, you're skewing it to make your argument seem stronger by filtering through what you care about.

Like if you're going to include RvW on the repub side, you can include obergefell on the dem side. And you can include huge tax cuts but the Repub voters hated them so I don't know what value it had to the base.

vvv that too

Jaxyon fucked around with this message at 21:52 on Jun 27, 2022

# ? Jun 27, 2022 21:48

Willa Rogers: Mar 11, 2005

Cimber posted:

I'm trying to think. In the last 30 years we've had 18 years of democratic leadership and 12 of Republican. What are the big signature policy changes the democrats can point to, and what are the big ones that the republicans can point to?

Republicans:
R v. Wade
War on terror
Iraq war
Huge tax cuts
Medicare plan D for seniors

Democrats:
Obamacare.

Most of your GOP list includes things that Dems overwhelmingly supported, like the WoT and Plan D.

I'd also add the PATRIOT Act (and other surveillance legislation) and BK reform to their "wins," and those were overwhelmingly supported by Dems as well.

# ? Jun 27, 2022 21:49

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# ? May 25, 2024 09:49

Automata 10 Pack: Jun 21, 2007; Ten games published by Automata, on one cassette

Kalit posted:

Easily, the one that has a gun in their home: https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/full/10.7326/M21-3762

E: To be fair, we can even look at the higher rates of violence against LGBT people overall. Based upon this study:

I am far from a statistics expert, but I'll give it a shot. Anyone who knows more about it, please correct me. There's definitely assumptions here, but hopefully it's just noise.

So we have a 2.5x increase of violence against LGBT people from stranger. And a 2x increase homicide rate of people with guns in their homes. So only if the increase of violence from strangers is >80% ish homicides occurring in these armed communities, would it even out the increased homicide threat of the above study.

E2: Clarified my summary.

once again, cool statistics for a good country and not one where the police will arrest your parents because you�re a boy that wore a dress

take these statistics and make your disarmament plea to the black panthers, or hell, any black community under police occupation(now and in the past), or any insurgent group who�s country was invaded (not advocating for an insurgency here, not what this argument is about, don�t fedpost.)

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Automata 10 Pack fucked around with this message at 22:03 on Jun 27, 2022

# ? Jun 27, 2022 21:53

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > USCE Summer 2022: You can't change the crisis settings.

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