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jeebus bob posted:Just how soon will Sweden and Finland be full NATO members? I mean when can they confidently go "lol no" without fear of Türkiye renewing the veto? Not gonna happen. Politicians don't rock the boat, and risk alienating potential golf partners. It all comes down to golf partners.
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Jun 29, 2022 12:40
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fnox posted:I am literally quoting you. You're literally not though. You literally said something completely different.
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Jun 29, 2022 12:43
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fnox posted:I am literally quoting you. Yes? And? For further context, Ukraine had just announced it would be handing out weapons to anyone who wanted them in order to fight the Russians. This was also around the time they had those molotov workshops. This was abandoned for a more streamlined general conscription, although I would still maintain that the current 5 days of training in some cases is essentially the same thing.
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Jun 29, 2022 14:09
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What is a molotov workshop? The whole idea of the molotov cocktail is that it is an inexpensive and easy to use (so to speak) weapon that could, at the time, be useful against the Soviets. Of course the weapon since then has become known as the go-to of anyone wanting to inflict damage.
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Jun 29, 2022 14:17
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Rappaport posted:What is a molotov workshop? The whole idea of the molotov cocktail is that it is an inexpensive and easy to use (so to speak) weapon that could, at the time, be useful against the Soviets. Of course the weapon since then has become known as the go-to of anyone wanting to inflict damage. At the beginning of the invasion they held workshops in Kyiv where ordinary people were taught how to mix them. Unfortunately, Russian armor has improved somewhat since the Winter War and artillery has a bit more range.
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Jun 29, 2022 14:54
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SplitSoul posted:At the beginning of the invasion they held workshops in Kyiv where ordinary people were taught how to mix them. Unfortunately, Russian armor has improved somewhat since the Winter War and artillery has a bit more range. It really is a shame that people try to defend their nation, isn't it? My objection was that you made it seem like "mixing a molotov" is some obscure skill, when, again, the entire point of the weapon is that it does not require expertise or experience to make and use one.
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Jun 29, 2022 15:40
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Rappaport posted:It really is a shame that people try to defend their nation, isn't it? It's a shame they encouraged ordinary citizens to actively get themselves vaporized by Russian soldiers for literally no material gain, yes, I agree. It's bad enough that many conscripts are sent off with barely any training. Molotovs are perhaps handy for street protesting if you manage to avoid immolating yourself, incredibly much less so against modern armor, hate to break it to you. Edit: Anyway, this is sliding off-topic and I'm tired of repeating myself. Let's instead give it up for Pernille Skipper for being horrified at prospects for the Kurds despite voting in favor of the NATO expansion, knowing fully well Erdogan would get to collect his pound of flesh. SplitSoul fucked around with this message at 16:03 on Jun 29, 2022 |
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Jun 29, 2022 15:53
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SplitSoul posted:It's a shame they encouraged ordinary citizens to actively get themselves vaporized by Russian soldiers for literally no material gain, yes, I agree. It's bad enough that many conscripts are sent off with barely any training. Molotovs are perhaps handy for street protesting if you manage to avoid immolating yourself, incredibly much less so against modern armor, hate to break it to you. Those ordinary citizens would get raped and shot all the same, though. That is the point. You are correct that there is no "material gain" in getting raped.
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Jun 29, 2022 16:09
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Oh look, SÄPO has a extradition list all lined up already. https://www.dn.se/varlden/sapo-har-lista-med-personer-som-kan-utvisas/ Rappaport posted:Those ordinary citizens would get raped and shot all the same, though. That is the point. I'm not denying rapes or civilian casualties occur, premeditated and otherwise. Putin should not have invaded Ukraine and war crimes should be punished. I fail to see how molotov cocktails are an effective prevention strategy in either case. SplitSoul fucked around with this message at 16:42 on Jun 29, 2022 |
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Jun 29, 2022 16:35
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SplitSoul posted:I'm not denying rapes or civilian casualties occur, premeditated and otherwise. Putin should not have invaded Ukraine and war crimes should be punished. I fail to see how molotov cocktails are an effective prevention strategy in either case. Sadly they do not have nuclear armaments. But setting your would-be rapist on fire seems, on the face of it, having a deterrent effect. I am not Swedish, of course, so I do not have the same deep understanding of foreign policy as You do. Also, hang on, "otherwise"? Russian boys did an oopsie and did not mean to?
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Jun 29, 2022 16:41
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Rappaport posted:Sadly they do not have nuclear armaments. But setting your would-be rapist on fire seems, on the face of it, having a deterrent effect. I am not Swedish, of course, so I do not have the same deep understanding of foreign policy as You do. Neither am I, thankfully. Civilian casualties, comma, premeditated and otherwise. The "and" rather than "or" denotes that I believe Russian armed forces are guilty of both.
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Jun 29, 2022 16:47
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Rappaport posted:Also, hang on, "otherwise"? Russian boys did an oopsie and did not mean to? "or civilian casualities". Why does everyone do their absolute best to read other people's post at uncharitable as possible?
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Jun 29, 2022 16:48
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SplitSoul posted:Neither am I, thankfully. As theRat points out, I am being uncharitable. I just do not see what difference it makes whether premeditation involved in murdering people, in an act of invasion and aggression, really makes a difference. Okay, you get the guys to the Hague, but right now, it is people being shot for Vova's war of aggression.
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Jun 29, 2022 16:50
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SplitSoul posted:I fail to see how molotov cocktails are an effective prevention strategy in either case. You can take one and insert it wherever you like. gently caress off with your insinuating that a country shouldn't resist a brutal invader in any way they can. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jun 29, 2022 16:56
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Randarkman posted:You can take one and insert it wherever you like. gently caress off with your insinuating that a country shouldn't resist a brutal invader in any way they can. Not defending him but it's ultimately a matter of allocating resources responsibly, minus the conscript part.
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Jun 29, 2022 17:15
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Rappaport posted:As theRat points out, I am being uncharitable. I just do not see what difference it makes whether premeditation involved in murdering people, in an act of invasion and aggression, really makes a difference. Okay, you get the guys to the Hague, but right now, it is people being shot for Vova's war of aggression. Premeditation and intent are both important factors in determining whether something is a war crime or not. I am trying to make abundantly clear that I do not consider Ukrainian civilian casualties entirely inadvertent and, in fact, a multitude of cases strongly indicate otherwise. Obviously you cannot rape someone by accident, even if recent legislation in Denmark and Sweden introduced the term "negligent rape", it's not relevant in a war where Russian troops shouldn't be present in the first place. The purpose of an army fighting a defensive war is to protect the lives of those who cannot fight. Ordinary citizens with molotov cocktails qualify for that term. Zelensky seems to have realized that rather quickly, which is why the strategy was abandoned within the first few weeks. Additionally, gasoline was in short supply for a long while. SplitSoul fucked around with this message at 17:27 on Jun 29, 2022 |
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Jun 29, 2022 17:25
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SplitSoul posted:Premeditation and intent are both important factors in determining whether something is a war crime or not. I am trying to make abundantly clear that I do not consider Ukrainian civilian casualties entirely inadvertent and, in fact, a multitude of cases strongly indicate otherwise. Obviously you cannot rape someone by accident, even if recent legislation in Denmark and Sweden introduced the term "negligent rape", it's not relevant in a war where Russian troops shouldn't be present in the first place. May I ask you to state out what you think Ukrainians should have done? And, furthermore, what Sweden and Finland should do with regards to NATO? You point out we (as in Finland) can't fight Stalin off with Molotovs, which is fair enough, but what should be done then? Vova is clearly an unhinged dictator. Not even going to touch entirely inadverted! Rappaport fucked around with this message at 17:32 on Jun 29, 2022 |
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Jun 29, 2022 17:29
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Rappaport posted:May I ask you to state out what you think Ukrainians should have done? And, furthermore, what Sweden and Finland should do with regards to NATO? You point out we (as in Finland) can't fight Stalin off with Molotovs, which is fair enough, but what should be done then? Vova is clearly an unhinged dictator. I think Zelensky should have followed through on his election platform and Finns (and Swedes) at a minimum should've been asked first before their governments abandoned neutrality. Rappaport posted:Not even going to touch entirely inadverted! Uh, thanks. I guess? You realize that all wars incur civilian casualties? And what I am saying is, Russian armed forces don't seem overly concerned when it happens, and there is strong proof they will do it deliberately? Which is another reason Putin shouldn't have invaded Ukraine.
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Jun 29, 2022 17:51
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One thing is for certain: there is no stopping them; the Americans will soon be here. I, for one, welcome our new MAGA overlords. I'd like to remind them that as a trusted netizen I can be helpful in rounding up others like Kurds, women, immigrants, gays, communists, journalists, to be sent to prisons in Scandinavia, the United States, Egypt or Turkey. We must help them outlaw abortion, make gay marriage illegal, defund the bloated public sector, weaken unions, strengthen our military, continue murdering immigrants 
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Jun 29, 2022 17:53
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Thulsen-Dahl finally left DF.  ted hitler hunter posted:One thing is for certain: there is no stopping them; the Americans will soon be here. I, for one, welcome our new MAGA overlords. This is Rwanda erasure.
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Jun 29, 2022 17:58
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SplitSoul posted:I think Zelensky should have followed through on his election platform and Finns (and Swedes) at a minimum should've been asked first before their governments abandoned neutrality. I do not know how aware you are of how Finnish neutrality, and the coupling thereof related to Sweden's worked, in good and ill!, but speaking very roughly, Finland had an understanding with Soviet Russia, that took some sauna talks to manage, but in general the idea was that they wanted some integration with our military systems, and we opposed, due to American influence during the Cold War, and also because we tried very hard not to be a satellite state. Be that as it may, Finland's neutrality was always predicated on a reliable Soviet state. This all fell out the window when Vova decided it was open season on unarmed civilians. The fundamental shift in the security landscape engendered there was, in my opinion, a sufficient signal for us (Finland) to seek a nuclear backing. Not that we would want to use it!, but as a signal to Vova that he can't just gently caress around in his back yard willy-nilly and expect no response. SplitSoul posted:Uh, thanks. I guess? You realize that all wars incur civilian casualties? And what I am saying is, Russian armed forces don't seem overly concerned when it happens, and there is strong proof they will do it deliberately? Which is another reason Putin shouldn't have invaded Ukraine. It seems we do not disagree on this point, just the response. Which is fair enough.
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Jun 29, 2022 17:58
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SplitSoul posted:It's a shame they encouraged ordinary citizens to actively get themselves vaporized by Russian soldiers for literally no material gain, yes, I agree. It's bad enough that many conscripts are sent off with barely any training. Molotovs are perhaps handy for street protesting if you manage to avoid immolating yourself, incredibly much less so against modern armor, hate to break it to you. Well the alternative for any citizen without a large enough professional army to back them up is to just accept being conquered by the aggressor or hope that non violent actions will maintain your national independence to a satisfactory degree, which is hard due to a global shortage of Ghandis, and why the rest of fennoscandia decided to join NATO. It is a perfectly reasonable position to be a pacifist for moral or ideological reasons. But then one also have to accept the negative the consequences of not resisting a violent aggressor with violence, just as one have to accept the very clear negative consequences of violent resistance. So just be frank about your pacifist intentions and their consequences, be it about defence of national states, within NATO or in Ukraine, don't just say resistance is futile without acknowledging that it will also have undesirable consequences.
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Jun 29, 2022 18:01
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Rappaport posted:The fundamental shift in the security landscape engendered there was, in my opinion, a sufficient signal for us (Finland) to seek a nuclear backing. Not that we would want to use it!, but as a signal to Vova that he can't just gently caress around in his back yard willy-nilly and expect no response. Alright, I hope the nuclear umbrella works out well for you.
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Jun 29, 2022 18:03
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SplitSoul posted:Alright, I hope the nuclear umbrella works out well for you. I sincerely hope it is not necessary. But I still say the security landscape for Finland and Sweden changed radically this fall, and I am glad our elected leaders took steps to address that.
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Jun 29, 2022 18:05
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I routinely see job ads call for more years of experience in a technology than that technology has existed for. They're probably just covering their bases and have like one service or something written in c++, or alternatively, one web thing written in like Javascript or something.
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Jun 29, 2022 20:00
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Finally a good take on military policy
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Jun 29, 2022 20:11
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Randarkman posted:You can take one and insert it wherever you like. gently caress off with your insinuating that a country shouldn't resist a brutal invader in any way they can. But...you do actually mean any effective way they can. Right?
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Jun 29, 2022 20:17
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I find this molotov cocktail conversation missing the important detail that molotovs are just about effective as throwing a firecracker at an armoured fighting vehicle. During Winter War molotov cocktails were originally intended to be used for blinding tanks with the smoke, but it was soon realized that the engine decks of Soviet tanks were really exposed and lighted easily. This vulnerability was fixed later in the war, though. Modern armoured vehicles are practically immune to molotovs as well as flamethrowers. There's no point in doing that. But it's quite understandable that people felt the urge to do something together. Maybe it wasn't the most efficient response. But it's psychologically better to have some feel of agency than just sitting on your hands. There was also a comment about having workshops for making molotov cocktails and how that works against some sort of logic, I don't know. During WW2 molotov cocktails were made industrially. They were generally not made in the field, no one has the time and equipment to start crafting one in the middle of combat when a need arises. It's always more efficient to make everything centralized even if you could make something in the field.
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Jun 29, 2022 20:35
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Listen, just because my posting is centered on explaining why ukraine/zelenskyy and their nato puppet masters, are really the bad guys in all of this, and totally had it coming, doesn't mean I'm *supportive* of the completely justified invasion, that putin was forced to do because of legitimate security concerns. Nononono, how dare you accuse me! (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jun 29, 2022 21:15
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Nenonen posted:I find this molotov cocktail conversation missing the important detail that molotovs are just about effective as throwing a firecracker at an armoured fighting vehicle. During Winter War molotov cocktails were originally intended to be used for blinding tanks with the smoke, but it was soon realized that the engine decks of Soviet tanks were really exposed and lighted easily. This vulnerability was fixed later in the war, though. Modern armoured vehicles are practically immune to molotovs as well as flamethrowers. There's no point in doing that. But it's quite understandable that people felt the urge to do something together. Maybe it wasn't the most efficient response. But it's psychologically better to have some feel of agency than just sitting on your hands. As much as I hate adding to this derail, I think they know the Molotov's weren't going to do anything to a modern tank. I don't think they were intended for tanks, the Ukrainians have demonstrated they know how to incapacitate a tank. I'm pretty certain these workshops were part of the general preparation of the population for an occupation, should the Ukrainian army fail. The intent is likely to lob them at people or buildings, not vehicles. I think the suggestion that it was the extent of Ukraine's preparation for war is disingenuous. There's quite extensive video footage to the contrary. In any case, the point was to bring up the obvious contradiction between viewing the invasion of Ukraine in that light, and Turkish incursions into Syria in a radically different one. Particularly because, if it's really about being a pacifist and wanting to avoid drawing out a conflict, you can probably argue the Kurdish struggle is far more desperate. It's the complete mischaracterization, for obvious political reasons, that upsets me.
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Jun 29, 2022 21:27
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i really still do not understand how, apart from russia being shittier at violence than the soviet union and ukraine being a much stronger opponent, this differs that much from hungary '56 and czechoslovakia '68 as far as the viability of finnish and swedish neutrality is concerned. the russians haven't been *that* interested in subjugating the nordics since the winter war, and even that genuinely seems to have been an effort at securing strategic depth for leningrad. this is a regional power with pretensions cracking down on what it seems to see as an unruly client. there's nothing much in the way of evidence of russia perceiving either sweden or finland as clients or potential clients. their whining about the NATO applications has been subdued enough that even the most enthusiastic parts of the press haven't found much to run with beyond mostly boilerplate "this is a mistake and does not help the interests of de-escalation blah blah we will redeploy our military according to the new strategic situation". i suspect it may just be an especially visceral reminder that the USA isn't all-powerful anymore which is spooking people, though that US decline leads people to doubling down on the US-led order and seeing this as totally obvious (to the point of shouting treason when people disagree) is still very odd to me. maybe the extreme level of US soft power in our countries also has something to do with it. if anything, the surprisingly high cost that this war is incurring on russia without them resorting to weapons of mass destruction seems to demonstrate that it should be possible to marshal a conventional force big enough to be a serious deterrent and, absent any obvious interest in russian territory, should be able to keep tensions low enough that the threat of armed conflict should be minimal. all this is before considering that the nuclear umbrella is essentially an affirmation that the end of civilisation is preferable to a lost war, with which i also don't agree; i still genuinely would prefer an occupied norway to one bathed in nuclear fire. perhaps it really is the relative weakness of russia which leads people to assume that it's safe? i'm not familiar enough with the intellectual history of swedish neutrality, but i always assumed that it was more of a desire to maintain independence from the great power blocs than out of fear of soviet reprisal. the context of the first interstate war in europe since the nineties, and the probably deadliest since WW2? is it that ukraine drifted so far out of russia's "sphere" before they launched an all-out invasion that we started considering it a "normal" european country? this is not meant as anything inflammatory, by the way, i just genuinely do not fully understand the position that things have fundamentally changed to become more threatening than during the cold war; in isolation, maybe, but given the long and honourable history of especially swedish neutrality there's a real disconnect to me.
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Jun 29, 2022 23:16
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Seems to me that the shitlibs saw the opportunity to join Nato and jumped on it  Like I don't think they care for neutrality or the security aspects, i think they want closer ties with the US and see material benefit (i e increased arms sales) in joining nato and all other considerations be damned McCloud fucked around with this message at 23:26 on Jun 29, 2022 |
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Jun 29, 2022 23:24
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McCloud posted:Seems to me that the shitlibs saw the opportunity to join Nato and jumped on it while this sort of elite co-option may be part of the picture, i do not think that it's the full picture or 90% of the talking class wouldn't be so over the moon about it. an awful lot of perfectly ordinary people have become NATO stalwarts more or less overnight, and while that once again isn't that strange in isolation, it *is* strange to me given the political traditions of the countries in question
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Jun 29, 2022 23:45
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Revelation 2-13 posted:Listen, just because my posting is centered on explaining why ukraine/zelenskyy and their nato puppet masters, are really the bad guys in all of this, and totally had it coming, doesn't mean I'm *supportive* of the completely justified invasion, that putin was forced to do because of legitimate security concerns. Nononono, how dare you accuse me! Personally I think it's pretty messed up to support the invasion, but then you have the right to your opinion. fnox posted:In any case, the point was to bring up the obvious contradiction between viewing the invasion of Ukraine in that light, and Turkish incursions into Syria in a radically different one. Particularly because, if it's really about being a pacifist and wanting to avoid drawing out a conflict, you can probably argue the Kurdish struggle is far more desperate. It's the complete mischaracterization, for obvious political reasons, that upsets me. If you would remember just a few hours back, this discussion came about because I had to provide context for the mischaracterized quote about martyrdom from the very beginning of the war (February 28). As I also pointed out, this initial policy was abandoned for general conscription, because it was obviously a bad idea. I'm not a pacifist at all. I think Putin and Erdogan are essentially cut from the same cloth. Indeed, my entire point is that NATO both tolerates, enables and actively engages in deeply abhorrent poo poo, as do its members on an individual basis, as some Kurds in Sweden are about to find out. That's why I don't support NATO, either. The position is only inconsistent with your strawman. SplitSoul fucked around with this message at 00:06 on Jun 30, 2022 |
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Jun 29, 2022 23:55
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V. Illych L. posted:i really still do not understand how, apart from russia being shittier at violence than the soviet union and ukraine being a much stronger opponent, this differs that much from hungary '56 and czechoslovakia '68 as far as the viability of finnish and swedish neutrality is concerned. I've made basically the same argument earlier in this thread but I guess I can say it again: the strategic reality hasn't changed at all, only the perception of it has. A lot of people really refused to believe that Russia was capable of anything more than saber rattling, and were able to sort of ignore Georgia and Crimea (too isolated and too far away). The reality though is that Russia demonstrated that a full scale military invasion of a neighboring country is an actually real thing, which has made people finally catch onto the fact that the Swedish defense policy has been completely untenable since the moment the total defense for most practical purposes ceased to exist in the early 2000's. The Swedish armed forces are not in any meaningful way capable of actually defending the whole country, and even defending a very small part of it is only possible for a very short time. They're good for one major engagement and that's about it. The civil defense basically does not exist anymore either, and there's no stockpiling of basic foodstuffs, fuel, medicines, and other critical resources. During the Cold War it would have been possible to do what the Ukrainians are doing now, and keep it up for months at the very least (at enormous cost to society of course), or maintain armed neutrality for years while completely isolated from the outside world like during WW2, but this ceased to be the case 20 years ago. The current neutrality is just relying on a vague hope that nobody tries anything and isn't an actually realistic defense policy. Again, military defense needs to consider capability, not intent, but even then Russia doesn't need to have any intent of "subduing the Nordics" for Sweden to be in deep trouble in a scenario where the Russians decide that hey, they need a land corridor to Kaliningrad and taking Gotland would be a great way to interdict large parts of the Baltic. The alternative to NATO is at least double the defense budget plus an equal amount of money on civil defense, plus 20 years or so to build it all out. I'd be all for that, but the government has been allergic to actually spending any money on anything except consultants for the past few decades, so I'm not very optimistic about the chance of pulling that off. TheFluff fucked around with this message at 05:15 on Jun 30, 2022 |
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Jun 30, 2022 04:51
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I would add that during the Cold War, for reasons of their own, the Soviets considered Finnish and Swedish neutrality politically expedient. Even Stalin, who was a lunatic who nearly started World War three, quite earnestly commented to Finnish diplomats in the late 40s that "a country should have a strong steel industry". After Stalin, Hrutshev viewed Finland positively due to being pals with Kekkonen, basically. The Brezhnev era was more difficult since the Soviet nation was in a bit of a shambles by that point, but even then Finland managed to retain military independence (i.e. not agreeing to joint Soviet war exercises and the like). And Sweden also actually helped, by threatening the Soviets on several occasions that unless they backed down from pressuring Finland, Sweden would make its own conclusions, which is diplomacy talk for telling someone to gently caress right off. The difference now is that modern-day Russia is an unreliable and therefore dangerous actor. If we cannot predict what they will do, then it seems like the only recourse left to a small nation like Finland or Sweden is to ally themselves with someone capable of projecting enough force to act as a deterrent. Now, we all know the history of especially Finland allying with other nations in the past, but if the European security situation is deteriorating as we can see, what choice is there? There is only so much cheese we can
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Jun 30, 2022 05:11
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TheFluff posted:I've made basically the same argument earlier in this thread but I guess I can say it again: the strategic reality hasn't changed at all, only the perception of it has. A lot of people really refused to believe that Russia was capable of anything more than saber rattling, and were able to sort of ignore Georgia and Crimea (too isolated and too far away). The reality though is that Russia demonstrated that a full scale military invasion of a neighboring country is an actually real thing, which has made people finally catch onto the fact that the Swedish defense policy has been completely untenable since the moment the total defense for most practical purposes ceased to exist in the early 2000's. The Swedish armed forces are not in any meaningful way capable of actually defending the whole country, and even defending a very small part of it is only possible for a very short time. They're good for one major engagement and that's about it. The civil defense basically does not exist anymore either, and there's no stockpiling of basic foodstuffs, fuel, medicines, and other critical resources. During the Cold War it would have been possible to do what the Ukrainians are doing now, and keep it up for months at the very least (at enormous cost to society of course), or maintain armed neutrality for years while completely isolated from the outside world like during WW2, but this ceased to be the case 20 years ago. The current neutrality is just relying on a vague hope that nobody tries anything and isn't an actually realistic defense policy. so, basically: as the capacity for maintaining sovereignty decreases, events occur which shock people into realising that they're exposed. NATO provides an apparent easy way out of that, even if the reality may be more complicated - i.e. one makes oneself dependent on the US for national defense, and that means making it as likely as possible that the US will honour its commitments. ugh. i suppose that does make sense. Rappaport posted:I would add that during the Cold War, for reasons of their own, the Soviets considered Finnish and Swedish neutrality politically expedient. Even Stalin, who was a lunatic who nearly started World War three, quite earnestly commented to Finnish diplomats in the late 40s that "a country should have a strong steel industry". After Stalin, Hrutshev viewed Finland positively due to being pals with Kekkonen, basically. The Brezhnev era was more difficult since the Soviet nation was in a bit of a shambles by that point, but even then Finland managed to retain military independence (i.e. not agreeing to joint Soviet war exercises and the like). And Sweden also actually helped, by threatening the Soviets on several occasions that unless they backed down from pressuring Finland, Sweden would make its own conclusions, which is diplomacy talk for telling someone to gently caress right off. i'm sorry, i don't buy this. the russians have been acting mostly out of loudly and consistently stated interests for the entire putin era - maintaining their remaining clients has been a huge and open concern for them. i am perfectly willing to admit that i was as surprised as anyone that they opted for a full-on invasion, but there really did seem to be a possibility of serious military action in the donbass since late last year when their attempts at forcing a diplomatic resolution in their clients' favour were ignored (my surprise here was also in no small part based on my own ignorance of ukrainian force dispositions, e.g. just how much they'd hardened their positions in the donbass). russia's been consistently and quite openly trying to avoid a western-aligned ukraine for many years. though the scale of the operation was unpredictable, russia taking some kind of military action against ukraine was not. indeed, this is a big part of the reason that i thought people were too blasé about brushing off last autumn's diplomatic efforts. this does not seem to translate to a surprise invasion of finland being more likely in 2022 than it was in 2020 or even in 2013.
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Jun 30, 2022 10:03
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V. Illych L. posted:i'm sorry, i don't buy this. the russians have been acting mostly out of loudly and consistently stated interests for the entire putin era - maintaining their remaining clients has been a huge and open concern for them. i am perfectly willing to admit that i was as surprised as anyone that they opted for a full-on invasion, but there really did seem to be a possibility of serious military action in the donbass since late last year when their attempts at forcing a diplomatic resolution in their clients' favour were ignored (my surprise here was also in no small part based on my own ignorance of ukrainian force dispositions, e.g. just how much they'd hardened their positions in the donbass). russia's been consistently and quite openly trying to avoid a western-aligned ukraine for many years. though the scale of the operation was unpredictable, russia taking some kind of military action against ukraine was not. indeed, this is a big part of the reason that i thought people were too blasé about brushing off last autumn's diplomatic efforts. this does not seem to translate to a surprise invasion of finland being more likely in 2022 than it was in 2020 or even in 2013. It's weird how you're drawing the opposite conclusion from the same facts. It's precisely the surprising scale of the invasion that is what makes Putin an irrational actor, you're excused for not knowing Ukrainian force dispositions but surely he did. They must've had intel on Ukrainian positions, roughly how much of a fighting capacity they have, and then they simply gambled that the Western response would've been feeble and late. They specifically preyed on the fact that Ukraine would have to stand alone against them. Their plan to decapitate the Ukrainian government and de facto annex Ukraine by force is brazen to a degree that should scare neighbouring countries, it's reckless abandonment of international diplomacy in favor of pre-WWII tactics. We're not talking about a surprise invasion of Finland being likely, because it is like you mentioned, this isn't the start of the conflict, Russia has doggedly pursued regime change in Ukraine for years for reasons that solely benefit Russia, the Ukrainian people have repeatedly demonstrated their intentions to remain independent. The exact situation Finland and Sweden would like to avoid would be one where, say, either Putin or his successor wants to distract from economic woes by picking a fight with a neighbor (not quite unlike what Erdogan is doing), which starts as a diplomatic row then escalates to border clashes. Allies start dragging their feet despite the threat of escalation, as no written mutual defence pacts means they could legally avoid getting involved in direct conflict with Russia, at which point Russia is free to escalate to a full blown invasion and annexation. Russia doesn't need to have a reasonable gripe, they've shown their willingness to just invent a casus belli, like denazification. They've also shown a willingness to shrug off sanctions and other forms of non-violent intervention. What does work, demonstratively, is that they do not gently caress with NATO borders. Until Russia's leadership changes, this is our best bet to avoid future conflict.
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Jun 30, 2022 12:37
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Lol and now Erdogan is saying that Sweden promised to deport 73 "terrorists" on Turkey's list or the won't ratify our application. Also that we promised to change local laws (?) according to Turkish demands. This is such a god drat poo poo show, what a fucker. You're in his boat now, (S), happy rowing. DN: " Under pressträffen redogör han för flera löften som Sverige och Finland ska ha gett Turkiet. Utöver de påstådda utlämningarna från Sverige så ska båda de nordiska länderna ha lovat att ”se över och justera” lokala lagar, regelverk för arbetet mot terrorism och försvarsindustriell export. – Vi har lyckats flytta fram Turkiets röda linjer, säger president Erdogan på Natotoppmötets sista dag. Han kallar överenskommelsen med Finland och Sverige för en ”diplomatisk vinst” för Turkiet. – Finland och Sverige måste först uppfylla sina löften, om inte så blir det ingen ratificering i Turkiets parlament, säger Erdogan. På en fråga från en finländsk journalist om Erdogans uttalande ska ses som ett hot om att Turkiet kan stoppa Natoprocessen igen svarar presidenten: – Självklart. Enligt Recep Tayyip Erdogan så har utlämning av de som han kallar terrorister varit del av förhandlingarna under en längre tid. – Tidigare har de (Sverige reds. anm) förhandlat med utlämningen av 60 terrorister, men nu har antalet stigit till 73 under förhandlingarna har de lovat detta, säger han och fortsätter: – De ska utlämnas till oss, det har de lovat och det löftet finns i dokumentationen så nu måste de hålla sitt löfte."
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Jun 30, 2022 15:39
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fnox posted:It's weird how you're drawing the opposite conclusion from the same facts. It's precisely the surprising scale of the invasion that is what makes Putin an irrational actor, you're excused for not knowing Ukrainian force dispositions but surely he did. They must've had intel on Ukrainian positions, roughly how much of a fighting capacity they have, and then they simply gambled that the Western response would've been feeble and late. They specifically preyed on the fact that Ukraine would have to stand alone against them. Their plan to decapitate the Ukrainian government and de facto annex Ukraine by force is brazen to a degree that should scare neighbouring countries, it's reckless abandonment of international diplomacy in favor of pre-WWII tactics. i think you're misunderstanding my point here: i'm not saying anything about whether russia's gripe is 'reasonable', i'm saying that it was pretty clearly communicated in advance of the invasion and that military action per se was not something which came entirely out of the blue basically i do not buy your narrative here, it depends on eliding far too much historical context. e. as noted earlier, i also do not think the "putin is literally crazy and acting at random" stance is an especially useful one for the pro-NATO position, since it means that deterrence is useless and it just makes armageddon more likely V. Illych L. fucked around with this message at 16:20 on Jun 30, 2022 |
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Jun 30, 2022 16:14
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