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Which horse film is your favorite? This poll is closed. |
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| Black Beauty |
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2 | 1.06% |
| A Talking Pony!?! |
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4 | 2.13% |
| Mr. Hands 2x Apple Flavor |
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117 | 62.23% |
| War Horse |
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11 | 5.85% |
| Mr. Hands |
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54 | 28.72% |
| Total: | 188 votes | ||
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It sure is hard here on year 3 to go out and see people acting like it's all over. Yeah I want to dine inside too but  I'm still uneasy about wantonly catching the drat thing even though I'm triple vaxxed.
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Jun 30, 2022 19:42
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Zapf Dingbat posted:It sure is hard here on year 3 to go out and see people acting like it's all over. Yeah I want to dine inside too but It's not going away, so what's your outlook? I'm asking earnestly. Are you just never going to dine inside anymore and forgo other similar activities? Are you going to wait for another drug or vaccine? Wait for the virus to evolve into something truly mild? Eventually accept the increased risk and move on? I'm genuinely curious.
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Jun 30, 2022 20:08
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Great question. No idea. Until we have a handle on treatment of long covid I suppose! I've already had covid, I can deal with being sick a week or two every wave, but I'm not terribly interested in opening up myself to the risk of disability when our safety net sucks poo poo.
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Jun 30, 2022 20:42
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spankmeister posted:It's not going away, so what's your outlook? I'm asking earnestly. Are you just never going to dine inside anymore and forgo other similar activities? Are you going to wait for another drug or vaccine? Wait for the virus to evolve into something truly mild? Eventually accept the increased risk and move on? I'm genuinely curious. I'm starting to ask myself the same question. My wife and I did so well during the last couple of years, it's hard to get out of the mindset of cautiousness. I was looking at statistics for any sort of context of civic duty, and currently I think the death rate is still 2 or 3 times that of influenza? My wife and I are relatively healthy and in our 40s. With our vaccines I doubt that anything really bad will happen to us, except that knowledge that we helped perpetuate it. I work from home, but my wife commutes to a workplace where she is the only person wearing a mask in an office and facility that regularly has waves of it hit the employees. Granted, most of the people that get it are gruff blue collar guys working on a print shop floor whereas she's in the office. But yeah, I've been looking for a metric on when it's "over" and I haven't found anything that satisfies me yet. Clouseau posted:I'm not terribly interested in opening up myself to the risk of disability when our safety net sucks poo poo. This too. We're on a Health Insurance Marketplace plan that costs $1000 per month and barely has any benefit to using it. Doctor appointments take months to schedule, and when I see a doctor they're so overworked that they're just in and out and I never leave feeling like I got anything out of it unless I have an acute problem. The '08 recession hit us hard and I went so long between unstable jobs with and without insurance. I'm in a better place financially now but boy those past 15 years or so has made me risk averse. I suppose I can dehumanize myself and face to bloodshed but I'm not sure.
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Jun 30, 2022 21:06
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Zapf Dingbat posted:It sure is hard here on year 3 to go out and see people acting like it's all over. Yeah I want to dine inside too but Once you get it you won't be able to taste anything so really, two birds with one stone there.
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Jun 30, 2022 21:08
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Zapf Dingbat posted:I was looking at statistics for any sort of context of civic duty, and currently I think the death rate is still 2 or 3 times that of influenza?  That being said, despite the risk of dying being lowered due to the vaccines and access to Paxlovid, I'm still concerned about the risk of getting long Covid and I am therefore going to continue remaining cautious until we have a better understanding of it. Like, if it's proven that vaccinated people are reasonably protected from long Covid and/or someone develops an effective treatment against it, then yeah I'd be willing to lower my guard. But until then I'm not going to roll the dice on potential repeat infections with unknown long term consequences to my body and immune system.
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Jun 30, 2022 22:01
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The same death rate as flue but substantially more infectious is still a bad outcome, and yes death is not the only downside whereas with flu it's mostly you either get better in a week or you die.
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Jun 30, 2022 22:11
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Jaxyon posted:The same death rate as flue but substantially more infectious is still a bad outcome, and yes death is not the only downside whereas with flu it's mostly you either get better in a week or you die. It's mostly that, yes, but I definitely know a few people who had "long flu" -- i.e. lingering effects for weeks and months after the primary infection cleared. And, of all the people I've known who have had COVID and were vaccinated... it's mostly a brief illness and then nothing, too. This is not to say that COVID is mild, but rather to point out that the flu can seriously gently caress you up, and it's always been able to do that, but people were ignoring that possibility for some reason. In general, we should probably be broadly more cautious about infectious diseases.
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Jun 30, 2022 22:50
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PT6A posted:It's mostly that, yes, but I definitely know a few people who had "long flu" -- i.e. lingering effects for weeks and months after the primary infection cleared. And, of all the people I've known who have had COVID and were vaccinated... it's mostly a brief illness and then nothing, too. I get a flu shot every year despite not being in a major risk group. I understand. But I don't like the focus on just death for Covid.
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Jun 30, 2022 23:27
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PT6A posted:It's mostly that, yes, but I definitely know a few people who had "long flu" -- i.e. lingering effects for weeks and months after the primary infection cleared. And, of all the people I've known who have had COVID and were vaccinated... it's mostly a brief illness and then nothing, too. The reason long COVID is more concerning than long flu is that the probability of getting long flu is p(flu) • p(long flu|flu) (the probability of getting the flu times the probability of getting long flu given you’ve got the flu). For long COVID, the formula is identical, replacing “flu” with COVID. This way of looking at it makes it clear that you have to consider not only the chance that you get long flu/COVID if you get the respective virus, but also the chance that you get the virus in the first place. For COVID, that chance is much, much higher—even if the chance of getting long flu from the flu and getting long COVID are identical (which they probably aren’t). You can also substitute whatever side-effect (death, hospitalization, etc.) for the second term and it will not affect the first term. So until the rate of dying of COVID once you get it is much LOWER than the rate of dying of the flu, your overall chance of dying of COVID is still much higher as long as your chance of getting it is higher. That base rate is much higher, which makes a big difference! This reasoning is why I’m still more concerned about deaths from COVID than deaths from the flu, even knowing about the reduction in IFR for COVID over time. You may now be less likely to die of COVID than before if you get COVID (especially given the great vaccines), and about as likely to die of COVID as of the flu, which is much better than how things were before, but the chance of getting COVID is still much higher than the chance of getting the flu. A whole lot of people are falling victim to the Base Rate Fallacy when determining how much risk they’re really in. Not to say no one should ever do anything ever again, but just a PSA that it’s good to be informed that focusing on the % of people who have had COVID that end up with a particular outcome is focusing on only half of the risk equation, and can be quite misleading especially when comparing COVID to much less infectious diseases (like the flu). Edit: vvvvv didn’t figure you would disagree; just felt like adding to what I took your point to be Jigsaw fucked around with this message at 04:04 on Jul 1, 2022 |
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Jul 1, 2022 00:14
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I agree, that's why I'm one of the only people at work still wearing a mask consistently. I'm definitely on board with KN95s and avoiding risky situations, improving ventilation, etc. but I think it's still worthwhile to contextualize the actual risk if you end up getting COVID. Even so, the removal of mandatory public health measures is nothing short of completely asinine. I am somewhat biased, having caught a flu in late 2019 that laid me out for three weeks, despite having had the flu shot and not being in a risk group. I definitely don't want something that's "just" that bad, and as you rightly point out, COVID is far more contagious. Haven't had so much as a cold since, despite returning to in-person work in July 2021. Even moderate, inobtrusive public health interventions like masking and paying attention to ventilation do a huge, huge amount to reduce risk and regardless of the danger COVID poses, it's stupid that we've decided to throw these things in the bin. PT6A fucked around with this message at 03:41 on Jul 1, 2022 |
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Jul 1, 2022 03:39
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My wife had it last week. She caught it because she was un the car for hours with her niece. The niece has always been careful, so she thought ut would be ok. Niece started symptoms that evening and tested positive the next day. Wife tested positive on Monday. She isolated in the other bedroom and wore an n95 whenever she came out for food or bathroom trips. Since she had open heart surgery earlier this year, our pcp said she should take paxlovid. She got a bad case of paxlovid mouth and the whole run had to eat mints, jolly ranchers and gum to cover the nasty taste. She never had a fever,but cold like symptoms. She's over it now and has tested negative multiple times. I never got so much as a sniffle, and tested every day, all negative. Still dodging g that bullet. We're both Moderna vaxxed, and double boosted.
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Jul 1, 2022 04:08
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Jethro posted:Yeah, IIRC at the very beginning there was a feeling of "this is totally different than anything we've seen and we can't use our usual respiratory distress techniques," but proning and steroids were standard care by the middle of summer, I think. Certainly well before the first Winter peak. Proning people with lung problems on ventilators has been a thing for decades in ITU. It happened in the first wave in spring 2020 as a standard part of care.
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Jul 2, 2022 21:54
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I think i'm pretty much over my covid infection. It was like a long term cold that wouldn't gently caress off. Not debilitating for me, more annoying.
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Jul 2, 2022 23:34
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Hi thread! I'm currently in the 'close contact' pool, even thought there is no formal contact tracing happening where I live. I carpooled to work this week (wednesday and friday) with someone who tested positive on Saturday. I was masked up both days, but we did have the windows closed for a 25 minute ride. Is there updated information on incubation times for the current strain that we're dealing with? I tested negative on a rapid test yesterday and I'm on my way to a proper PCR shortly. If I caught it, how long before it starts showing up on tests, how long before symptoms? I know a lot of that information has developed, so I'm having trouble finding anecdotal or formal evidence that is somewhat recent. Thanks!
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Jul 3, 2022 05:50
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Omicron typically has shorter incubation than other variants, 2-4 days. If you caught it on Friday you might not start having symptoms or coming up positive on rapid tests until around Tuesday, which would be four days from Friday. Given exposure on Wed and Fri, you might be too early to pick up an infection by either antigen or PCR testing (CDC says wait at least five days). You should probably isolate, monitor symptoms, and do a couple rapid tests and maybe a PCR this Tuesday or Wednesday.
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Jul 3, 2022 05:57
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Michael Mena was on Slavitt the other day, talking about this exact thing, might be useful: https://podcasts.apple.com/nl/podcast/omicron-testing-your-top-20-questions-answered-with/id1504128553
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Jul 3, 2022 08:06
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spankmeister posted:It's not going away, so what's your outlook? I'm asking earnestly. Are you just never going to dine inside anymore and forgo other similar activities? Are you going to wait for another drug or vaccine? Wait for the virus to evolve into something truly mild? Eventually accept the increased risk and move on? I'm genuinely curious. For myself, regarding indoor public spaces, right now my plan is to wait and see if future vaccines come out with far superior protection. I'll admit to having engaged in risky behavior (e.g. indoor dining) on rare occasion, in service of going out on a date. But I live alone and really don't want to be celibate for the back half of my thirties. I also roll the dice and spend time unmasked with a small core of friends and family in home settings.
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Jul 4, 2022 19:32
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road potato posted:I was masked up both days, but we did have the windows closed for a 25 minute ride AFAIK masks don't really protect you from other people, masks protect other people from you.
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Jul 4, 2022 22:57
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Cimber posted:AFAIK masks don't really protect you from other people, masks protect other people from you. is this march 2020
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Jul 4, 2022 23:10
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Cimber posted:AFAIK masks don't really protect you from other people, masks protect other people from you. A properly fitted n95 does a lot to protect you. It’s doing less and less as we’ve created worse variants but it’s still not nothing. Didn’t want people reading this and equating lol cloth masks with disposable n95 respirators, which a lot of people still think of as masks.
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Jul 4, 2022 23:11
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Cimber posted:AFAIK masks don't really protect you from other people, masks protect other people from you. Can you cite some good sources on this?
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Jul 4, 2022 23:15
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jetz0r posted:Can you cite some good sources on this? Actually I can't, and I retract my statement. It was in error. I think I was thinking about the cloth masks everyone was wearing before, not the kn95 which (from what I am reading) do protect you from other people. From what I had remembered, back in the early days of the pandemic the virus was water based, so having a mask stopped the spray of particles.
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Jul 4, 2022 23:22
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Cimber posted:From what I had remembered, back in the early days of the pandemic the virus was water based, so having a mask stopped the spray of particles.
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Jul 5, 2022 03:44
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Jethro posted:COVID has always been airborne, it's just that the infectious disease community believed garbage about droplets vs aerosols for 60+ years The infectious disease community conning people about their expertise for over half a century ought to have been more of a story imo
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Jul 5, 2022 04:13
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Tiny Timbs posted:The infectious disease community conning people about their expertise for over half a century ought to have been more of a story imo Ehh, I dunno if it's quite that. iirc some lady was like "what is the difference between an aerosol and a droplet? What is special about this demarcation?" and after she spent a year going through wizard libraries or whatever she found the first book that made the distinction and the guy was like "Hmm I dunno where the difference really lies but, gently caress it, for the sake of argument let's start here" and he drew a sharpie line on a chart between some random droplet sizes and somehow that just became repeated forever that that was the difference between a droplet and an aerosol. lol "I dunno, we've always done it this way" Wish I could find the article, it was really fascinating the amount of effort she had to go through to challenge that kind of institutional inertia.
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Jul 5, 2022 04:18
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This, from Wired https://www.wired.com/story/the-teeny-tiny-scientific-screwup-that-helped-covid-kill/
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Jul 5, 2022 04:37
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Jethro posted:This, from Wired https://www.wired.com/story/the-teeny-tiny-scientific-screwup-that-helped-covid-kill/ Just reread it, thanks! What a great article, everyone should check it out.
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Jul 5, 2022 05:52
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What is the quality of the science being done on respiratory diseases if that assumption was left unexamined for 60 years? It wasn’t some nuanced point, it was used as a major differentiator in types of spread and thus public health policy driven at the planetary level. That’s the big question on my mind.
Tiny Timbs fucked around with this message at 16:08 on Jul 5, 2022 |
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Jul 5, 2022 16:04
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I love that a public health crisis has devolved into "It's just your personal duty to take care of things! Only you!" like every other thing that requires a mass solution in this day and age because our elected officials just gave the gently caress up. It's great. Real good to have to bootstraps myself into avoiding something that could cripple me, great poo poo.
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Jul 5, 2022 18:00
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Oracle posted:So looks like we're getting an omicron booster in the fall. (from the ever informative YLE newsletter, really, go subscribe) That's good stuff--thanks for the link! Jethro posted:This, from Wired https://www.wired.com/story/the-teeny-tiny-scientific-screwup-that-helped-covid-kill/ And this also! What a great article. It really shows how organic and complex scientific investigation can be (and how hard it is to change minds at times, even when dealing with supposedly "open-minded" folks) when many people think of it as "look at data, make conclusion, so simple". Tiny Timbs posted:What is the quality of the science being done on respiratory diseases if that assumption was left unexamined for 60 years? It wasn’t some nuanced point, it was used as a major differentiator in types of spread and thus public health policy driven at the planetary level. That’s the big question on my mind. Yeah, it's pretty big from that perspective. As the article points out: quote:For most respiratory diseases, not knowing which route caused an infection has not been catastrophic. But the cost has not been zero. Influenza infects millions each year, killing between 300,000 and 650,000 globally. ...so even a percentage point or two is a whoooole lot of bodies. Define "catastrophic", I guess? spankmeister posted:It's not going away, so what's your outlook? I'm asking earnestly. Are you just never going to dine inside anymore and forgo other similar activities? Are you going to wait for another drug or vaccine? Wait for the virus to evolve into something truly mild? Eventually accept the increased risk and move on? I'm genuinely curious. Personally it's still an ongoing struggle for me (made slightly tougher since I'm mildly immunocompromised anyway from ongoing medication). Even though I'm fully vaxxed and boostered, I don't go out in public anywhere near as often as I once did (and am currently working entirely from home, although that may change to partial depending on my workplace's vax policy). That being said, my wife and I will go out to eat maybe...once a month or so? When I pick up take-out, I'll typically wear a mask--same with groceries, etc. although sometimes I don't (one's not handy, in my other pants pocket, whatever). I'm...cautiously relaxed a little, I guess? And if it's a big crowd of people, gently caress that. So far I'm 100% covid free. My wife is not so lucky and still has no sense of smell months later, which really, seriously sucks rear end for someone who's super into cooking.  I'm keeping my eye on infection rate data and toying with the idea of going back to the gym. After the last couple of years I'm probably in worse shape now than I've been in my entire life. I figure I'd stick to the pool and maaaybe the hot tub, which...eh? Dunno yet.I guess I'm leaning toward a limited form of "accept the increased risk and move on", but unless something really groundbreaking happens on the vaccine front, I doubt I'll ever go completely back to pre-covid behavior. I feel bad for folks who are super extroverted; I'm very much not so, and it's been a blessing for me.
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Jul 5, 2022 18:00
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Yet another coworker got COVID, returned to work after a week away. He talked about how terrible the fever was, and the relentless coughing that followed it. He told me that he regretted letting his guard down and not wearing a mask. He's wearing one now, so I'm not the only one.
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Jul 5, 2022 18:10
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aas Bandit posted:I feel bad for folks who are super extroverted; I'm very much not so, and it's been a blessing for me. I feel bad for workers that have no choice but to dangerously serve extroverts because the system has failed. Extroverts can meet outside, or meet in a club hall where everyone consents and there's no wage slaves who have no choice but to expose themselves to a rapidly evolving novel virus that we still don't understand lest they starve and become homeless. Nobody forces extroverts to go to a restaurant indoors to socialize. gently caress the extroverts, though I do acknowledge that they're not being given all the correct information by the failed system to make informed choices.
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Jul 5, 2022 18:27
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I'd just point out that I see very few people serving those dastardly extroverts while themselves wearing a mask, but I do see enough employees wearing masks that I can assume they aren't forbidden to wear one. I think most people have simply chosen to accept the risk, probably with incomplete information, but they've made a decision all the same.
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Jul 5, 2022 18:30
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Those workers are also being mislead and not given all the best information by the failed system. Also Circutron posted:I love that a public health crisis has devolved into "It's just your personal duty to take care of things! Only you!" like every other thing that requires a mass solution in this day and age because our elected officials just gave the gently caress up. It's great. Real good to have to bootstraps myself into avoiding something that could cripple me, great poo poo.
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Jul 5, 2022 18:33
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I agree we need more action at a governmental/societal level in spite of what a great many people want, but I think it's also unreasonable to claim that everyone who's gone essentially back to normal is being misled or something. Some people just don't care. You know how you see people smoking cigarettes and you think "hey, don't they know that's bad for them? Smoking is very harmful to health!" Yeah, they know. They don't care. You can't make them care. Now, you could very easily point out that governments worldwide have heavily restricted smoking so as to protect the public and motivate people to quit smoking for their own good. And I agree we should be doing something very similar when it comes to public health interventions to prevent COVID, but the majority of people really, really don't want to, and as much as I wish the government would tell them "tough poo poo, it's our way or the highway," I do understand why that's not happening.
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Jul 5, 2022 18:50
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What I hear is that servers get better tips if they don't mask. Service with a smile!
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Jul 5, 2022 20:40
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Tiny Timbs posted:What is the quality of the science being done on respiratory diseases if that assumption was left unexamined for 60 years? It wasn’t some nuanced point, it was used as a major differentiator in types of spread and thus public health policy driven at the planetary level. That’s the big question on my mind. The problem is that the specific criteria of "airborne contagion" has been tied to protocols in healthcare, institutions and workplaces - protocols that include mandatory PPE, air exchange rates, testing, isolation wards, etc. These are expensive and time consuming protocols that would significantly impact cost of care and the required ratios of caregivers to patients in healthcare and institutional settings, and would have caused closure of many workplaces, particularly ones where secondary transmission could occur such as food handling. I would suggest that the way the DOL, CDC and Whitehouse quashed the proposed OSHA SARS-CoV-2 workplace safety changes is a good example of exactly the kind of political weight that would come to bear on any organisation that was pushing for reclassification or even investigation of those airborne criteria.
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Jul 5, 2022 21:49
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It's very common to use operational definitions in the sciences, especially in terms of what instrumentation or measurement are available. As an example, "macroscopic" is something that is visible to the naked eye while "microscopic" is not and requires a microscope. Those definitions don't map cleanly onto a lot of things in nature but they're convenient for humans. Almost all bacteria are microscopic, but some aren't! That's not to defend using an outdated or incorrect definition as seems to be the case with aerosol vs. droplet, but generally speaking "drawing a line on a graph with a sharpie" to create different categories of things is common and necessary.
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Jul 5, 2022 22:26
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And to be fair, from the article linked, it was not a sharpie on a line but a lot of research that defined a specific size at which particles deeply penetrate the lungs (5 um being the effective size for mucus membrane filtration) which was important for TB because TB needs to get all the way to the bottom of the lungs to be infectious. In summary, the issue is both bigger (droplet vs aerosol was based on a completely different disease) and smaller (covid behaves like a droplet nearly the entire time so the point is academic) - masks do work for covid, they don't work for measles.
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Jul 5, 2022 22:58
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