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Space Fish posted:Whole lot of green out today, how are the livestock? The bulls seem to be waking up a bit. The mood seems to be shifting toward something of a soft landing. Very curious what the Fed does later this month... But in any event it's nice to see some green on the screens. Things were getting a little depressing there.
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Jul 7, 2022 20:29
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It is hard for me to describe what I feel when I am out and about, as a shareholder in MNST, seeing people wearing Monster Energy gear. I just love it. Saw a dude with M tattoos the other day. Just an all-around wonderful feeling. Also on the subject of tobacco, loving everybody still smokes in Central Europe, at least France and Switzerland, by my count. Quite astounding.
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Jul 7, 2022 20:55
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Space Fish posted:Whole lot of green out today, how are the livestock? Lean hogs and live cattle futures are green, but feeder cattle are off -0.4%
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Jul 7, 2022 21:14
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What soft landing We've turned into a hovercraft, what indicators do you see that would imply inflation is coming back down in the next two years
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Jul 7, 2022 22:07
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Hadlock posted:We've turned into a hovercraft, what indicators do you see that would imply inflation is coming back down in the next two years Rate hikes have hit the brakes HARD on home price appreciation, WTI is off 15% from its peak, the price of many industrial materials is down big. YoY comparisons are likely to start looking much better within a few months. And the rate hikes aren't over.
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Jul 7, 2022 22:42
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Fireside Nut posted:As for me, I am still evolving what my actual 'strategy' is beyond getting owned by penny biotechs This thread is almost exclusively for posts about losing money on bad ideas, you'll fit right in
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Jul 7, 2022 22:43
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Agronox posted:Rate hikes have hit the brakes HARD on home price appreciation, WTI is off 15% from its peak, the price of many industrial materials is down big. YoY comparisons are likely to start looking much better within a few months. My sister has been waiting like a year and a half to build a house so maybe she will finally be able to do that.
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Jul 7, 2022 22:56
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drk posted:This thread is almost exclusively for posts about losing money on bad ideas, you'll fit right in  I cut my teeth last year losing like $400 on $GOON
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Jul 8, 2022 00:29
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Also gas prices are falling a bit. Energy is a significant component of the inflation index. https://gasprices.aaa.com/ Down about sixteen cents since this day last month. Normally prices rise into the peak summer usage so that's falling with a tailwind, too. Obviously not a huge drop, but if you're into reading tea leaves on the economy for the next quarter, this is one of the omens the prognosticators stare at obsessively.
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Jul 8, 2022 00:35
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lol, looks like Elon is out.
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Jul 8, 2022 22:36
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I suspect Twitter's board is going to have something to say about that. God musk is a piece of poo poo
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Jul 8, 2022 22:46
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LMAO @ how much bagholding the musk fanboys are about to experience
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Jul 8, 2022 22:51
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 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418091/000110465922078413/tm2220599d1_ex99-p.htm
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Jul 8, 2022 22:58
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https://twitter.com/matt_levine/status/1545519476707319808?t=xm_bDZZLiYfQpkYBLnN8FA&s=19 Lol
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Jul 8, 2022 22:59
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The court battle for the breakup fee is gonna be yearslong right? What a boon for the lawyers / partners involved, must be untold millions of dollars of wealth 'created' among all those firms. I was just reading that filing and seeing all the partner names and imagining the incredible hourly billing just for that document, let alone for the whole deal.
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Jul 8, 2022 23:21
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Inner Light posted:The court battle for the breakup fee is gonna be yearslong right? What a boon for the lawyers / partners involved, must be untold millions of dollars of wealth 'created' among all those firms. There's no way Twitter lets it go without a fight since they still have a valid merger agreement in place. $54.20 vs today's price of $36.81 (and lower after hours) is like +$20B in shareholder value - quite a bit more than just taking the $1B breakup fee and dropping the matter. That's years of fat legal billings for sure. I do wonder what will happen if the share price goes back up though - does Elon change his mind again if he thinks he's getting a good deal?
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Jul 9, 2022 01:14
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I think this is the death knell for twitter as a broad appeal* social media platform It is on Twitter to prove, in court of law, what a non-bot is, and that less than 5% of their users are bots, which is going to be impossible, estimates for their bot population have been inthe 20-33% range for almost 8 years (at least since 2015) *Twitter exists as a PR and  "journalist" platform because they have literally nowhere else to go, so yay to them, i guess  Puts on TWTR No surprise jack dorsey stepped down from twitter's board, absolutely wash that stink off, he saw what was coming. Just look in the rear view mirror. The better play is to ask where is "even elon musk doesn't want to own twitter" is a stink that's gonna be hard to wash off. what's the value in a company even the craziest, richiest dudes don't want to own. puts all the way down p.s. lol at @fart for leaving SA for that trainwreck
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Jul 9, 2022 05:46
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quote:It is on Twitter to prove, in court of law, what a non-bot is, and that less than 5% of their users are bots Is it though? I thought a big part of why everyone has been laughing at Musk is that it already progressed beyond the point where bots would matter, and thus they were constantly being brought up as a distraction/red herring, not something that actually affects the legal circumstances https://twitter.com/matt_levine/status/1545152302142689281
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Jul 9, 2022 11:14
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Nosre posted:Is it though? I thought a big part of why everyone has been laughing at Musk is that it already progressed beyond the point where bots would matter, and thus they were constantly being brought up as a distraction/red herring, not something that actually affects the legal circumstances This was my understanding. Based on the knowledge that musk is a continuous dishonest manipulator this doesn't seem unreasonable.
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Jul 9, 2022 15:27
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Nosre posted:Is it though? I thought a big part of why everyone has been laughing at Musk is that it already progressed beyond the point where bots would matter, and thus they were constantly being brought up as a distraction/red herring, not something that actually affects the legal circumstances If Musk starts selling his entire position, that could mean he is truly trying to get out of the deal. But that puts him at risk if a judge forces him to honor the agreement, which would mean buying the his existing stock back (and more) at the higher price. So wonder if he would have to hold his position until a decision is made? nnnotime fucked around with this message at 15:59 on Jul 9, 2022 |
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Jul 9, 2022 15:50
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Isn’t the 5% thing not an assertion that 5% of all accounts are bots, but a “once we discard all the obvious bot accounts, we estimate only 5% of the remainder is made up of better bots” metric?
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Jul 9, 2022 16:00
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It's 5% of Monetizeable Active Monthly Users, and it's a soft 5%. Musk is arguing that it's a material breach, which....good luck with that.
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Jul 9, 2022 16:16
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Omne posted:It's 5% of Monetizeable Active Monthly Users, and it's a soft 5%. Musk is arguing that it's a material breach, which....good luck with that. doesn't he just need some musk wierdos on a jury?
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Jul 9, 2022 17:05
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It's going to the Delaware chancery court. So it's just a judge.
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Jul 9, 2022 17:25
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Judge hearing the case ought to be interesting, should be in theory a much more technical/strict interpretation of contract law Presumably it's a really simple contract that says 'i promise to buy this company for $N/share on or before X date, assuming the board approves it" with no contingencies which is why the odd wording around twitter failing to perform on the bot data because, I guess that would make them in breach of good faith which is uh, not a contract lawyer, but seems customary wether or not it's explicitly written in the contract, and that's what their whole defense is hanging on at this point Eating $6 billion dollars as a settlement seems like a better deal than having to own the worst social media company in decline
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Jul 9, 2022 18:16
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6 billion dollars to not get frozen peaches is pretty funny though.
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Jul 9, 2022 18:53
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My understanding is that the contract specifically said that it's out of the norm to not do further checking on the company, but if you're really sure you want to buy us we're good with it. So it'll be interesting what the breakup fee ends up being. The stock price has moved down in no small part to this deal and the drama surrounding it. So Twitter is probably going to go for the 6 or more billion. I'd bet the stock price really bleeds out too.
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Jul 9, 2022 19:11
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Looks like it'll be a quandary for whichever judge gets this. On the one hand, if you don't enforce the merger agreement, you poo poo all over every other contract in Delaware and open up a massive can of worms for existing and future contracts. On the other hand, if you do enforce it, you have to deal with some combination of Elon ignoring the court/years of appeals/pandering to the court of public opinion/actually enforcing it. I'm not a lawyer by any means, but it looks like a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation.
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Jul 9, 2022 20:34
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Shroud posted:Looks like it'll be a quandary for whichever judge gets this. On the one hand, if you don't enforce the merger agreement, you poo poo all over every other contract in Delaware and open up a massive can of worms for existing and future contracts. On the other hand, if you do enforce it, you have to deal with some combination of Elon ignoring the court/years of appeals/pandering to the court of public opinion/actually enforcing it. Not even remotely an expert, but I think the bolded part is going to be the big one here. Name a big company, they're probably in Delaware somehow. The judges can either piss off Musk, or they can piss off actual, functioning adults and companies that aren't built entirely on hype and cokedust. Billionaire Calvinball aside, if I had to bet, I'd bet on the rest of the wealthy sphere throwing Musk overboard rather than risking putting holes in their boat.
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Jul 9, 2022 21:20
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I agree but it's no sure thing
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Jul 10, 2022 01:19
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Yeah, Delaware is a safe harbor for old money. The kind of people who make judges and journalists disappear. No loving way in hell some judge is making GBS threads in that punch bowl for some foreign dipshit whose wealth only exists on paper and can go broke in record speed if the rich turn on him.
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Jul 10, 2022 01:31
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The Delaware judge can rest easy in the certain knowledge that no matter what their ruling, it will immediately be appealed. The job will be to write a ruling that every appeals and superior court will find to be airtight, which given what we know right now, shouldn't actually be very hard.
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Jul 10, 2022 01:45
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Hadlock posted:Presumably it's a really simple contract that says You don't need to presume. You can read it. It's filed on Edgar.
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Jul 10, 2022 04:08
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pseudanonymous posted:6 billion dollars to not get frozen peaches is pretty funny though. Where is the $6bil coming from? I thought it was just $1bil he had to cough up if he welched on the deal?
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Jul 10, 2022 21:57
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The Anime Liker posted:Yeah, Delaware is a safe harbor for old money. Delaware is also weird in that it is where a majority of large US companies are legally based. My understanding is this is because they have these specific courts that only deal in business disputes and have hundreds of years of case law based there. I dont think chancery judges are getting disappeared - they are already in the pocket of old money.
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Jul 10, 2022 23:33
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Yeah Delaware is a tiny inconsequential state with not enough land or people to provide state level services, so they are sort of the cayman island of the US, with very low corporate taxes, very strong pro business laws and minimal state oversight. The majority of profitable corporations are registered in Delaware, in second place is Nevada for pretty much the same reasons, then everyone else Legal zoom defaults to Delaware when you create an out of state corp
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Jul 11, 2022 00:41
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Hadlock posted:Yeah Delaware is a tiny inconsequential state with not enough land or people to provide state level services, so they are sort of the cayman island of the US, with very low corporate taxes, very strong pro business laws and minimal state oversight. The majority of profitable corporations are registered in Delaware, in second place is Nevada for pretty much the same reasons, then everyone else If I recall correctly, when the Panama Papers came out, the NYTimes or WaPo asked an investment expert of some sort why there were so few American companies/individuals in them, relative to the scale/scope of the leak. The dude's answer was basically, "why use Panama when Delaware exists?"
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Jul 11, 2022 01:37
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gay picnic defence posted:Where is the $6bil coming from? I thought it was just $1bil he had to cough up if he welched on the deal? 1 bil is if there's something wrong with the financing or something else goes wrong with the deal. It's not the I'm going to blow it up unilaterally and publicly trash you and the deal I signed fee.
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Jul 11, 2022 14:14
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Anyone want to make a case for TWTR being a good buy @ $33-34 range its at today? Its a crap company that isnt worth that absent the Musk deal IMO, though it has traded above $40 (and as high as $70+) before the whole buyout thing. There also seems like a decent chance that the legal case against Musk will be settled in Twitter's favor relatively quickly (months, not years). That doesnt necessarily mean the shares will turn into cash that quickly, but a completed court case should push the share price a lot closer to the buyout price. But, Mr. Market has decided either Twitter is going to lose their challenge or will end up taking a lower buyout deal.
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Jul 11, 2022 17:18
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A couple weeks ago I attempted to hop back on the LCID train in the 16s, accidentally triggered a wash sale in the mid-18s, held until I was green in the 20s, and now it's back in the mid-18s. This feels like the trading equivalent of a skater nearly faceplanting over a basic obstacle before turning it into a flip and landing safe and sound. Also, two more $GOON patents in China, what are they worth?
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