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Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

Tai posted:

By and large the people of UK have a lot of love for Ukraine (and Poland, Baltics etc). The support won't change and if someone came in and said gently caress this, it would be an election suicide.

UK loves them long time.... so long as they don't try to enter the country.

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Edgar Allen Ho
Apr 3, 2017

by sebmojo

Atreiden posted:

This is certainly a take on Johnsons situation. I hope Dmitri exaggerate when he says most Russians think like this.

Define "most" because most russians don't give a poo poo about the UK or anywhere else, and barely care about russian politics.

Chalks
Sep 30, 2009

Just Another Lurker posted:

UK loves them long time.... so long as they don't try to enter the country.

I feel like that was just our incompetent government and our ladder kicking home secretary. When asked, the British public offered tens of thousands of places for Ukrainian refugees to stay, and yet the government intentionally hosed with the visa system so only a few thousand were allowed in. The whole thing generated a lot of bad press for the government, I don't think the public was behind those policies at all

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




https://meduza.io/feature/2022/07/06/zhizn-zdes-katitsya-v-hrenovuyu-storonu

Good read on forced “mobilisation” of men in the occupied regions.

Also there seem to be rumours about Medvedev’s wife getting tired of his alpha [alcoholic] dog shtick.

https://twitter.com/ilya_shepelin/status/1544983379980034049

cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 16:12 on Jul 7, 2022

Tigey
Apr 6, 2015

Chalks posted:

I feel like that was just our incompetent government and our ladder kicking home secretary. When asked, the British public offered tens of thousands of places for Ukrainian refugees to stay, and yet the government intentionally hosed with the visa system so only a few thousand were allowed in. The whole thing generated a lot of bad press for the government, I don't think the public was behind those policies at all

Yeah, my family seriously discussed making arrangements for taking in a Ukrainian refugee during the early days of the invasion, under assumption that there would be hundreds of thousands of displaced people coming here needing support.

My workplace (a medical charity) also got a Ukrainian translator for our Helpline and developed an action plan under the assumption we would be helping help facilitate accommodation placements and sorting ongoing clinical care for the anticipated thousands of Ukrainian refugees with that condition.

Ended up being for naught as the government prevented all but a trickle coming due to extreme visa requirements and bureaucratic walls. All because immigration number must keep going down...

Ulf
Jul 15, 2001

FOUR COLORS
ONE LOVE
Nap Ghost
I don’t think I’ve seen this in the thread:

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/07/07/russian-ruble-drops-17-on-falling-exports-rumored-intervention-a78224

quote:

The Russian ruble extended a recent slump Thursday, declining 17% against the U.S. dollar in 48 hours to reach its lowest level since late May.

The ruble hit 64.5 against the greenback during morning trading on the Moscow Exchange as the Russian authorities apparently intervened in currency markets to stop the ruble from strengthening and energy exports to Europe declined.

I don’t have a good sense of how much the ruble can be affected by external pressures. Is any of this due to e.g. oil taking a nosedive, weakening belief in Russian economic outlook? Or is this purely the kremlin trying to boost exports? Does Russia even have exports other than energy?

golden bubble
Jun 3, 2011

yospos

https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1544688787887980545


https://ridl.io/import-substitution-or-going-parallel/

quote:

In agriculture, for instance, Russia became fully self-sufficient in sugar, but the new reality did not protect ­the country ­from the current challenges in either of these two cases. As regards the car-making industry, components such as automatic transmissions, airbags, ABS and many others have not been ­developed and put into production, which prevents domestic­ companies from assembling a modern car. Almost 100% of seeds in crop farming are imported, and such material is supplied by the global monopolists in this field (60% of the global seed market is now held by Germany’s Monsanto and Corteva from the United States), as it cannot be effectively re­produced­ in crop growing, which means that the dependency­ also looks strong here.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Tigey posted:

Yeah, my family seriously discussed making arrangements for taking in a Ukrainian refugee during the early days of the invasion, under assumption that there would be hundreds of thousands of displaced people coming here needing support.

My workplace (a medical charity) also got a Ukrainian translator for our Helpline and developed an action plan under the assumption we would be helping help facilitate accommodation placements and sorting ongoing clinical care for the anticipated thousands of Ukrainian refugees with that condition.

Ended up being for naught as the government prevented all but a trickle coming due to extreme visa requirements and bureaucratic walls. All because immigration number must keep going down...

Can't have all those hot Ukrainian women come and steal our husbands and boyfriends!! :byodame:

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Ulf posted:

I don’t think I’ve seen this in the thread:

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/07/07/russian-ruble-drops-17-on-falling-exports-rumored-intervention-a78224

I don’t have a good sense of how much the ruble can be affected by external pressures. Is any of this due to e.g. oil taking a nosedive, weakening belief in Russian economic outlook? Or is this purely the kremlin trying to boost exports? Does Russia even have exports other than energy?

It’s gone from a broadly meaningless number A to a broadly meaningless number B, and yes, this is government intentionally reducing its “value”, for the sake of their exports. They’ve been struggling with that for weeks now.

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

Ulf posted:

I don’t think I’ve seen this in the thread:

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/07/07/russian-ruble-drops-17-on-falling-exports-rumored-intervention-a78224

I don’t have a good sense of how much the ruble can be affected by external pressures. Is any of this due to e.g. oil taking a nosedive, weakening belief in Russian economic outlook? Or is this purely the kremlin trying to boost exports? Does Russia even have exports other than energy?

Current exports are: oil, gas, vodka & misery with only the latter showing growth.

I wonder how long the russian population will endure things once winter kicks and the failing infrastructure starts killing people?

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Just Another Lurker posted:

Current exports are: oil, gas, vodka & misery with only the latter showing growth.

I wonder how long the russian population will endure things once winter kicks and the failing infrastructure starts killing people?

We mustn't underestimate the ability of a literal deep state dictator to keep his people under control. Nothing bars him anymore from going to extremes against any signs of opposition. Imported goods are going to be increasingly unaffordable for ordinary Russians, but at least you can sign yourself on the waiting list of a Lada Classic for the same price as you would just recently have paid for a modern imported car. Putin couldn't care less about the well-being of Russians. Meanwhile in the west it remains to be seen how strong the sympathy for Ukraine is vs. demand for cheaper energy and so on, especially if German economy cracks and we get another Euro crisis. UK's next prime minister even starts from a clean slate, they won't have to be seen palling around with Zel just to distract from their suspected crimes :v:

paul_soccer12
Jan 5, 2020

by Fluffdaddy

Just Another Lurker posted:

Current exports are: oil, gas, vodka & misery .



Fertilizer, iron, aluminum, wood, grain,

No marvel films tho so can you even really call it an economy??

Pope Hilarius II
Nov 10, 2008

Nenonen posted:

Can't have all those hot Ukrainian women come and steal our husbands and boyfriends!! :byodame:

I've never quite understood this cliché - is it some kind of orientalist projection? The law of averages would dictate that attractiveness would be spread more or less evenly among any culture or ethnic group with sufficient numbers.

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

Nenonen posted:

We mustn't underestimate the ability of a literal deep state dictator to keep his people under control. Nothing bars him anymore from going to extremes against any signs of opposition. Imported goods are going to be increasingly unaffordable for ordinary Russians, but at least you can sign yourself on the waiting list of a Lada Classic for the same price as you would just recently have paid for a modern imported car. Putin couldn't care less about the well-being of Russians. Meanwhile in the west it remains to be seen how strong the sympathy for Ukraine is vs. demand for cheaper energy and so on, especially if German economy cracks and we get another Euro crisis. UK's next prime minister even starts from a clean slate, they won't have to be seen palling around with Zel just to distract from their suspected crimes :v:

Oh i wasn't expecting another October Revolution, plus they are definitely a controlled population.

The whinging of Germany is saddening to me but i have only a limited knowledge of their industrial and civilian infrastructure and how the diminished oil & gas affects them.

paul_soccer12
Jan 5, 2020

by Fluffdaddy

Pope Hilarius II posted:

I've never quite understood this cliché - is it some kind of orientalist projection? The law of averages would dictate that attractiveness would be spread more or less evenly among any culture or ethnic group with sufficient numbers.

They're white. That's pretty much it. Racist westerners like white refugees more than non white refugees

Edgar Allen Ho
Apr 3, 2017

by sebmojo
Mail-order bride stereotype, and not as fat as the average brit or american = promiscuous, will give you handies for a visa

Chalks posted:

I feel like that was just our incompetent government and our ladder kicking home secretary. When asked, the British public offered tens of thousands of places for Ukrainian refugees to stay, and yet the government intentionally hosed with the visa system so only a few thousand were allowed in. The whole thing generated a lot of bad press for the government, I don't think the public was behind those policies at all

as an american, gotta point out that you have that racist government because it consistently has gotten the most votes.

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

Nenonen posted:

Can't have all those hot Ukrainian women come and steal our husbands and boyfriends!! :byodame:

Lol. There was an article about this a couple of weeks ago in Metro, I want to say. A couple took in a Ukrainian woman, and the husband absconded with her like a week later. There was also a weird bit about how he was browsing photos of Ukrainian immigrants looking for a place to live, and he excitedly picked that good-looking lady who happens to be single, and kept convincing his wife to take her in like a kid who wants a dog.

Also, there's this, which is not really funny when you think about it.
https://inews.co.uk/news/world/ukrainian-escorts-search-uk-charities-warn-vulnerable-women-1628111

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Pope Hilarius II posted:

I've never quite understood this cliché - is it some kind of orientalist projection? The law of averages would dictate that attractiveness would be spread more or less evenly among any culture or ethnic group with sufficient numbers.

There's definitely projection, as in there have been many reports of Ukrainian refugees being approached by horny lonely men or even human smugglers and if you check your spam filter these days there's guaranteed to be a number of 'hot Ukrainian girls are waiting for you' types.

MassiveSky
Apr 5, 2022

by Hand Knit

Nenonen posted:

Can't have all those hot Ukrainian women come and steal our husbands and boyfriends!! :byodame:

Going by the local tinder, native girls have some strong ukrainian competition as of late.
Talking to them about the war is as harrowing as you can expect.

Girl I spoke to last said that her entire family was from Mykolaiv, her brother and father were drafted, and her mother and sister in law stayed in Ukraine because they didn't want to split up.
I felt it my obligation to inform her of the general quality of the men she could expect to find on tinder.

MassiveSky fucked around with this message at 18:10 on Jul 7, 2022

PederP
Nov 20, 2009

Ulf posted:

I don’t think I’ve seen this in the thread:

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/07/07/russian-ruble-drops-17-on-falling-exports-rumored-intervention-a78224

I don’t have a good sense of how much the ruble can be affected by external pressures. Is any of this due to e.g. oil taking a nosedive, weakening belief in Russian economic outlook? Or is this purely the kremlin trying to boost exports? Does Russia even have exports other than energy?

The value of the ruble isn't really under pressure as such. It's in a rather special situation with extremely low imports, high exports and financial sanctions disconnecting it from global markets. It's not a good thing for Russia that the ruble is strong due to the export/import imbalance. It really hurts the export of anything other than fossil fuels, as they become relatively less competitive due to the strong ruble. The current drop is probably just due to the falling exports (oil prices are going down at the moment, sanctions/boycotts are still gaining effect, production might be going down somewhat).

It doesn't really mean much in the big picture. The value of the ruble doesn't have the impact that many ascribe it. It is not an indicator of economic strength, sanction effectiveness or anything like that - not in the current situation. Movements can be a hint at underlying factors. But the supply chain disruptions, corporate flight and financial market sanctions are what really hurt. That's not going to change much for the better or worse, in my opinion. Russia will keep some ability to produce military materiel - it has plenty food, fuel and basic commodities. Sanctions are not going to cause sudden regime change. But I do think gradually the Russian economy and industry will be 'de-modernized' as maintenance issues accumulate and various stockpiles dwindle. Import replacement will offset some of this, but absolutely not enough to prevent an economic crash. A crash that will very possibly happen completely disconnected from the ruble exchange rate.

Mokotow
Apr 16, 2012

Counting cars game took a turn today (Berlin-Warsaw)



ZombieLenin
Sep 6, 2009

"Democracy for the insignificant minority, democracy for the rich--that is the democracy of capitalist society." VI Lenin


[/quote]

I suppose that could be the S-300V, but I highly doubt it. The fact that the interception rate is up, and the allusion to ‘something new’ makes me think the Ukrainians have their NASAMS up and running.

I’m curious how many launcher systems and radars they were given now, and whether or not the Ukrainians were given any AMRAAM-ER missiles for it.

If they have been given those missiles it’s going to be a really bad day for Russian combat aircraft, and depending on a number of factors we may start to hear about Russian aircraft, including strategic bombers, shooting stand-off cruise missiles from Russian and Belarusian airspace being targeted.

In any case the more launchers, radars, and missiles the better off Ukraine is, and Russia should see a serious reduction in the effectiveness of their cruise missile attacks and potentially close air support.

No SAM system is perfect though, which is why it’s important to keep the arms and heavy weapons flowing to the UA.

On a side note I would have expected a more significant training time sink for the UA for the NASAMS system, but I am not really sure—I am no expert.

Certainly the fact that Ukraine would be using the system just 6 days after the transfer happened suggests to me that Ukraine had people training on these systems well before the intention to give Ukraine NASAMS was announced.

The X-man cometh
Nov 1, 2009

MassiveSky posted:

Going by the local tinder, native girls have some strong ukrainian competition as of late.
Talking to them about the war is as harrowing as you can expect.

Girl I spoke to last said that her entire family was from Mykolaiv, her brother and father were drafted, and her mother and sister in law stayed in Ukraine because they didn't want to split up.
I felt it my obligation to inform her of the general quality of the men she could expect to find on tinder.

Did you go out again? Or did her trauma make it difficult to form a relationship?

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost

ZombieLenin posted:

I suppose that could be the S-300V, but I highly doubt it. The fact that the interception rate is up, and the allusion to ‘something new’ makes me think the Ukrainians have their NASAMS up and running.

It's notoriously difficult to ID a type of missile streaking around as blurred camera bloom, but those don't appear to burn or fly out like NASAMS. When compared to past S-300 live fire videos, the unburnt exhaust appears rather similar to the potato-quality camera eye.

It would also be a hell of a feat to anounce the system, transport it, train up crews, and have it operational in like 6 days. It doesn't align at all with the timeline we have seen for every single other western shipment of aid more complex than raw ammo, PPE, fuel, food, etc.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Pure speculation - I wonder if S-300 could be hooked up to more modern radars, maybe?

Deltasquid
Apr 10, 2013

awww...
you guys made me ink!


THUNDERDOME

Pope Hilarius II posted:

I've never quite understood this cliché - is it some kind of orientalist projection? The law of averages would dictate that attractiveness would be spread more or less evenly among any culture or ethnic group with sufficient numbers.

Eastern European women traditionally care more about their appearance than the rest of the Western world (or so I've been told; apparently make-up and stuff sells a lot better but I have no first hand knowledge) + blue eyes and blonde hair + less obesity + stereotype of the mail order bride = perfect bait to play into the "they're coming to steal our men!!" narrative (much like how racist men hand wring about black men "coming to steal our women")

Kraftwerk
Aug 13, 2011
i do not have 10,000 bircoins, please stop asking

Deltasquid posted:

Eastern European women traditionally care more about their appearance than the rest of the Western world (or so I've been told; apparently make-up and stuff sells a lot better but I have no first hand knowledge) + blue eyes and blonde hair + less obesity + stereotype of the mail order bride = perfect bait to play into the "they're coming to steal our men!!" narrative (much like how racist men hand wring about black men "coming to steal our women")

I've definitely noticed a pattern among women I've known of Eastern European background being a lot more fastidious about their appearance than western women. Granted everyone is different and I've met western women who feel the same so it's difficult to assign a specific pattern to this.

Anecdotally having come from the former Yugoslavia myself and having associated with a lot of Polish, Ukrainian, Russians etc I have noticed the women who haven't spent much time in Western countries tend to overly concern themselves with their appearance and will dress up or apply makeup just to go to grocery stores or run quick across-the-street type errands. They also tend to wear high heels way more often and in situations other women would wear flats in. I used to date someone from Latvia back in University and I don't think there was ever an instance she wasn't wearing heels except at the gym, when we played tennis or if she went for a run. The only thing that was different was in classes she'd wear wedges and in more formal events it would be stilettos. It drew a lot of attention and people definitely noticed.

Kraftwerk fucked around with this message at 20:29 on Jul 7, 2022

Charliegrs
Aug 10, 2009

Mokotow posted:

Counting cars game took a turn today (Berlin-Warsaw)





Is that a British Challenger 2?

Ynglaur
Oct 9, 2013

The Malta Conference, anyone?

Edgar Allen Ho posted:

as an american, gotta point out that you have that racist government because it consistently has gotten the most votes.
As another American, we can say we know a lot about that!

Tank Chat
As others have pointed out, most tanks don't have air-conditioning systems per se, but they do have NBC (nuclear, biological, chemical) over-pressure systems which essentially let them push a lot of air through the cabin. On the Abrams they have these hoses you could connect to this webbed vest thing to supposedly stay cool, but nobody ever used them because they were a pain in the rear end to hookup and they restricted your movement. You could also hook up those hoses to your gas mask, which let you use the big filters in the tank's hull as your NBC filter rather than your mask filter. Again, not used often because usually during training you train donning the mask quickly and immediately getting back to whatever it was you were doing; you don't generally start training exercises in full NBC gear.

In terms of that footage of a grenade going into the driver's hatch, the damage could be highly variable. Secondary explosions would be the biggest risk, but that didn't seem to happen. There's not really much in a driver's position: a steering column, pedals, a handful of instruments. I'd imagine the driver's seat got mangled, but you can work around that easily enough. I'd worry more about ensuring no cables got sheared or damaged by shrapnel or shearing forces, and that nothing on the breach of the main gun got knocked out of alignment (unlikely: breaches are gigantic hunks of steel). In general: great way to kill any crew hanging out in the driver's compartment or in the bottom of the turrent, but probably not a catastrophic kill.

Anti-Ballistic Missile Chat
It could be something as simple as software. Maybe they figured out how to modify the S-300's identification and tracking algorithms in ways that work better against Russian ballistic missiles. Maybe some intel source is feeding them flight plans ahead of time. I'd be surprised if we learn anything about it for a decade or two at least. It is interesting, though. Do we have any Air Defense Goons itt?

Edgar Allen Ho
Apr 3, 2017

by sebmojo

Kraftwerk posted:

I've definitely noticed a pattern among women I've known of Eastern European background being a lot more fastidious about their appearance than western women. Granted everyone is different and I've met western women who feel the same so it's difficult to assign a specific pattern to this.

Anecdotally having come from the former Yugoslavia myself and having associated with a lot of Polish, Ukrainian, Russians etc I have noticed the women who haven't spent much time in Western countries tend to overly concern themselves with their appearance and will dress up or apply makeup just to go to grocery stores or run quick across-the-street type errands. They also tend to wear high heels way more often and in situations other women would wear flats in. I used to date someone from Latvia back in University and I don't think there was ever an instance she wasn't wearing heels except at the gym, when we played tennis or if she went for a run. The only thing that was different was in classes she'd wear wedges and in more formal events it would be stilettos. It drew a lot of attention and people definitely noticed.

My wife is like this and now I can't wear basketball shorts to the grocery store without feeling like a total schmuck

e: really can't get over the idea that refugee 20-somethings who might have partners or brothers or fathers in the war would gallivant off with some gammon torie twice her age

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Charliegrs posted:

Is that a British Challenger 2?

Looks so, the gun barrel and the side skirt are clear clues.

Also the sign says 'bred last' which is a dead giveaway

Kraftwerk
Aug 13, 2011
i do not have 10,000 bircoins, please stop asking

Edgar Allen Ho posted:

My wife is like this and now I can't wear basketball shorts to the grocery store without feeling like a total schmuck

e: really can't get over the idea that refugee 20-somethings who might have partners or brothers or fathers in the war would gallivant off with some gammon torie twice her age

Lucky you. It was really nice for me and if you're the competitive sort as it inspires you to better yourself to keep up with her.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug
How's it going Russia, did you get enough artillery shells from Belarus?

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1545132548921217026?s=20&t=TkZ8sHYrQmLPya4akbFX9Q

....oh. Oh no.

Also just noticed: The guy is missing an arm.

Mokotow
Apr 16, 2012

Nenonen posted:

Looks so, the gun barrel and the side skirt are clear clues.

Also the sign says 'bred last' which is a dead giveaway

It had a red wolf’s head on black background emblem on the back of the turret if it helps

Chalks
Sep 30, 2009

CommieGIR posted:

How's it going Russia, did you get enough artillery shells from Belarus?

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1545132548921217026?s=20&t=TkZ8sHYrQmLPya4akbFX9Q

....oh. Oh no.

Also just noticed: The guy is missing an arm.

The twitter replies point out that RPGs have timer fuses that cause them to detonate after travelling about 1km so none of those shots will actually land.

LochNessMonster
Feb 3, 2005

I need about three fitty


Chalks posted:

The twitter replies point out that RPGs have timer fuses that cause them to detonate after travelling about 1km so none of those shots will actually land.

That mechanism can be disabled though

OAquinas
Jan 27, 2008

Biden has sat immobile on the Iron Throne of America. He is the Master of Malarkey by the will of the gods, and master of a million votes by the might of his inexhaustible calamari.

CommieGIR posted:

How's it going Russia, did you get enough artillery shells from Belarus?

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1545132548921217026?s=20&t=TkZ8sHYrQmLPya4akbFX9Q

....oh. Oh no.

Also just noticed: The guy is missing an arm.

With the steep angle he's launching that at it'd be hard-pressed to reach a target before hitting the 900m fuse limit, to prevent it from self-destructing.


So you could say that setup is 'armless.

Despera
Jun 6, 2011

Pope Hilarius II posted:

I've never quite understood this cliché - is it some kind of orientalist projection? The law of averages would dictate that attractiveness would be spread more or less evenly among any culture or ethnic group with sufficient numbers.

The Soviet Union lost soo many men in ww2 that the theory goes only the hottest of the hot women got to reproduce

Edgar Allen Ho
Apr 3, 2017

by sebmojo
Armless dude in a combat role is a big red flag about their recruiting prospects.

Well another stitched onto the existing enormous red banner (heh)

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catfry
Oct 9, 2012

by Azathoth

Charliegrs posted:

Is that a British Challenger 2?

Probably related to the so-called "enhanced forward presence" Britain maintains along with other NATO nations in Balticum.

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