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let's not all get hot under the collar Also drat that's a good title
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Jul 15, 2022 18:04
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Raine posted:starting to doubt these "meteorologists" Most people don't realize this, but most of the people that you see on TV are just ologists
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Jul 15, 2022 18:10
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the models are fine if you understand their limitations I do statistical modeling all the time, which is a fuckton less complex than these weather models.
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Jul 15, 2022 19:06
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actionjackson posted:the models are fine if you understand their limitations If you count the people operating and interpreting them as model limitations, I agree completely.
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Jul 15, 2022 19:10
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The models I’m doing all the time are too hot lately
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Jul 15, 2022 19:11
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endlessmonotony posted:If you count the people operating and interpreting them as model limitations, I agree completely. the people doing the modeling are fine, the people interpreting them are dumbasses generally
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Jul 15, 2022 19:18
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SirPablo posted:GFS predicting the day after tomorrow Hurricanes Moe, Larry, and Curly
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Jul 15, 2022 21:10
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endlessmonotony posted:If you count the people operating and interpreting them as model limitations, I agree completely. What's the chance of rain
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Jul 15, 2022 21:28
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SirPablo posted:What's the chance of rain a good album https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V6dN1WB8Az0
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Jul 15, 2022 22:29
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SirPablo posted:Everyone acts like this has never happened before. Lol get fuuuucked
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Jul 16, 2022 00:16
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Dustcat posted:you guys are arguing over a philosophical question isn't it? at least over scales relevant to meteorology?
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Jul 16, 2022 00:54
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mawarannahr posted:The models I’m doing all the time are too hot lately hot models to die for
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Jul 16, 2022 01:04
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The past is deterministic, the future is probabilistic.
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Jul 16, 2022 02:48
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SirPablo posted:The past is deterministic, the future is probabilistic. Well, prove that and collect your nobel prize I guess.
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Jul 16, 2022 03:01
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all i've learnt from this is to always believe the worst forecast without question
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Jul 16, 2022 03:52
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Dustcat posted:you guys are arguing over a philosophical question A wise socialist once said “God does not play dice” and promptly invented the atomic bomb.
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Jul 16, 2022 04:04
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weather is the result of the material conditions of the climate which is the result of the material conditions of the earth which is the result of the desired personal material conditions of capitalists yes ive been drinking but im right (left [marxist weather])
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Jul 16, 2022 06:19
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between the Great Tarp Debate and people not understanding that variables can become unpredictable turning this into the Meteorological Monty Hall problem I don't know if this thread is the best or worst
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Jul 16, 2022 06:45
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Rectal Death Adept posted:between the Great Tarp Debate and people not understanding that variables can become unpredictable turning this into the Meteorological Monty Hall problem I don't know if this thread is the best or worst Marxist weather is all dialectical meteorialism baby
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Jul 16, 2022 06:55
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can someone tell me which of those two goons is right
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Jul 16, 2022 07:55
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Rectal Death Adept posted:the Meteorological Monty Hall problem I want to know more about this. I envision a scenario where you make a forecast, then before you get your results your model asks if you want to keep your current prediction or try again for a better one.
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Jul 16, 2022 09:10
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Rubellavator posted:can someone tell me which of those two goons is right That one is right.
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Jul 16, 2022 10:27
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one goon always lies and one always tells the truth
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Jul 16, 2022 10:49
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Rubellavator posted:can someone tell me which of those two goons is right endless monotony is pretending he doesn't understand variables (and their relationship to probabilities, particularly) to make a point in the direction of SirPablo regarding the modeling crisis. Technically endless monotony is more correct than SirPablo but since they went about it so poorly they get large demerits
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Jul 16, 2022 14:26
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Can you guys talk about cool weather disasters again instead of this math poo poo?
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Jul 16, 2022 14:31
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Math is cool. Shut up!
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Jul 16, 2022 14:34
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Perry Mason Jar posted:endless monotony is pretending he doesn't understand variables (and their relationship to probabilities, particularly) to make a point in the direction of SirPablo regarding the modeling crisis. Technically endless monotony is more correct than SirPablo but since they went about it so poorly they get large demerits There is no "modeling crisis" wtf
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Jul 16, 2022 16:12
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i'm a model, you know what i mean and i do a little turn on the catwalk
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Jul 16, 2022 16:38
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I propose a new class of models. We'll call them "super models"
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Jul 16, 2022 16:38
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mawarannahr posted:Marxist weather is all dialectical meteorialism baby
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Jul 16, 2022 16:48
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SirPablo posted:You clearly don't understand that circumstances change and thus the probability of events occurring changes. What's the probability you get in a car accident today? We'll, if your plans right now are to sit in your house and go no where, then almost zero (I suppose a car could drive into your house). Harik posted:good news! that wasn't enough for my friend. drunk driver plowed through their bedroom after going through the power pole, taking out power to the whole neighborhood. and I do mean through the bedroom, front bumper in the hallway. then they fled, leaving their passenger trapped. 1,000 year event Cup Runneth Over has issued a correction as of 17:41 on Jul 16, 2022 |
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Jul 16, 2022 16:59
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Look, we can't have 1000 year events every week, it dilutes the experience.
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Jul 16, 2022 17:20
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SirPablo posted:There is no "modeling crisis" wtf Pay no attention to the numerous events that have exceeded the most extreme models
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Jul 16, 2022 17:46
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Perry Mason Jar posted:Pay no attention to the numerous events that have exceeded the most extreme models in that case the most extreme models are good for establishing the minimum harm that will happen :p
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Jul 16, 2022 17:58
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mawarannahr posted:the Europeans who survived to tell the tale: those paintings are hung like poo poo
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Jul 16, 2022 18:06
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Perry Mason Jar posted:Pay no attention to the numerous events that have exceeded the most extreme models Just gonna assume you've spent zero time actually looking at numerical output from weather or climate models.
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Jul 16, 2022 18:14
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Cup Runneth Over posted:those paintings are hung like poo poo Loose wires. people always put too much give in them. I like using sawtooths with spacers for that reason.
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Jul 16, 2022 18:20
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Let's watch this on - will Fargo hit 115 on July 31st? This would break their all time record of 114 (from the dust bowl years).
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Jul 16, 2022 18:25
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Perry Mason Jar posted:Pay no attention to the numerous events that have exceeded the most extreme models This is some dumb as poo poo posting
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Jul 16, 2022 18:52
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SirPablo posted:Let's watch this on - will Fargo hit 115 on July 31st? This would break their all time record of 114 (from the dust bowl years). well now that you've said that you've sealed the fate of the people living there
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Jul 16, 2022 18:53
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