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RFC2324
Jun 7, 2012

http 418


I remember this ace combat level

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Comrade Blyatlov
Aug 4, 2007


should have picked four fingers





THE GHOST OF KYIV LIVES

Tiny Timbs
Sep 6, 2008

Comrade Blyatlov posted:

THE GHOST OF KYIV LIVES

For real though, the actual exploits of the Ukrainian pilots are up there with any legend. Every single one of them has massive gonads just for stepping into the cockpit.

madeintaipei
Jul 13, 2012

Tiny Timbs posted:

For real though, the actual exploits of the Ukrainian pilots are up there with any legend. Every single one of them has massive gonads just for stepping into the cockpit.

Finnish Air Force, 1939 vibes. Scrambing to fight every few hours in tired planes that were decent twenty years ago, hoping for even cast-offs from friendly partners.

Maybe early Israeli Air Force, too.

"Hey, the Czechs have Bf-"

"109s, yeah. Ugh. Okay, we'll make it work."

Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...
is there anything NATO could realistically give them to take out submarines?

Madurai
Jun 26, 2012

Alan Smithee posted:

is there anything NATO could realistically give them to take out submarines?

I'm going to say, short answer, no.

Any number of maritime patrol aircraft could operate over the Black Sea, but in the face of enemy air control, they'd take losses heavier than any eventual successes could possibly justify.

Kesper North
Nov 3, 2011

EMERGENCY POWER TO PARTY

Alan Smithee posted:

is there anything NATO could realistically give them to take out submarines?

have any two countries which both contain contain a subway franchise gone to war

in a well actually
Jan 26, 2011

dude, you gotta end it on the rhyme

Kesper North posted:

have any two countries which both contain contain a subway franchise gone to war

Hell, two subway franchises have definitely gone to war with each other.

Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...

Kesper North posted:

have any two countries which both contain contain a subway franchise gone to war

a joke that doesn't work on multiple levels

Kesper North
Nov 3, 2011

EMERGENCY POWER TO PARTY

Alan Smithee posted:

a joke that doesn't work on multiple levels

you might even say it's sinking :dadjoke:

in a well actually posted:

Hell, two subway franchises have definitely gone to war with each other.

we might be on to something here

Marshal Prolapse
Jun 23, 2012

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Alan Smithee posted:

is there anything NATO could realistically give them to take out submarines?

It depends once they get the ATACMs they could hit the port itself and possibly during a loading/dry dock time.

Murgos
Oct 21, 2010

Alan Smithee posted:

is there anything NATO could realistically give them to take out submarines?

I looked this up a while back during a discussion of a hypothetical Taiwan invasion.

There is a shore based truck mounted rocket launched torpedo system. However, knowing where the sub is could be problematic.

Edit: though I can’t find it now. Maybe I a, misremembering?

Murgos fucked around with this message at 01:32 on Jul 16, 2022

Marshal Prolapse
Jun 23, 2012

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Murgos posted:

I looked this up a while back during a discussion of a hypothetical Taiwan invasion.

There is a shore based truck mounted rocket launched torpedo system. However, knowing where the sub is could be problematic.

I really think without something like a PA, that the only realistic way, will be to hit in port somehow while l resupplied. That should be possible of ATACM‘s as I want to say they would bring Sevastopol into HIMARS range.

Well perhaps one other way is if the sub captain is an idiot and surfaces thinking he’s immune from attacks and Ukraine noticing it somehow and hitting them with a Neptune or harpoon… but you also need the sub to still be up.

Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...
how much surface time we looking at for a missile launch

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

A.o.D. posted:

Russian logistics are not agile. Even if the determination has been made to relocate ammo dumps out of HIMARS range, it probably took a day or two for those orders to filter down, and then several more days to decommission and relocate those sites. Fortunately, the Ukrainians are more than willing to help decommission those sites.

In other news, F16 and F15 training for the Ukrainians is on the budget for FY 2023.

Amusingly girkin is already bitching about how Ukrainians are just going to get ATACMs in a few weeks and they'll have to repeat the whole circus.... which he's probably right about

orange juche posted:

So like taking prospective UKRAF pilot officers and bringing them to the US and training them stateside and sending them back? Im assuming the Ukrainians are not going to want to give up active pilots to train on new platforms until they're in a position where they're not fighting for their existence.

This is pointless anyway unless the line items include setting up the UKRAF with the jets and logistical support for the new jets.

I guarantee you that whatever obstacles like that exist can be overcome.

I would expect to hear like zero details outside of extremely infrequent minimal updates about whatever is going on with training ukrainian pilots. Not much is being said about any of the specialized training programs going on currently, particularly not anything to do with pilots.

Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 01:42 on Jul 16, 2022

ArmyGroup303
Apr 10, 2004

If this were real life, I would have piloted this helicopter with you still in it.

Marshal Prolapse posted:

Well perhaps one other way is if the sub captain is an idiot and surfaces thinking he’s immune from attacks and Ukraine noticing it somehow and hitting them with a Neptune or harpoon… but you also need the sub to still be up.

Quoting because this will somehow actually happen.

My best Tom Clancy-esque guess is that a Russian sub will surface somewhere in the Black Sea because of an emergency (equipment failure from poor maintenance or just plain incompetence), and the Ukraine will fire drones, missiles, and memes in that order to the sub.

Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...
russia will sink it due to incompetence again and get mad when ukraine takes credit

orange juche
Mar 14, 2012



Anyone got a map of Ukraine with an overlay of theoretically where HIMARS could touch in the occupied territories? I'm assuming a lot of the Russians backfield poo poo can get precision air deliveries of guided 155 (from M777s/Cesars) and HIMARS rockets.

For the record, not asking for anything accurate, more like someone taking a drawing tool and drawing an arc across the occupied territories about 70km out from a spot some distance behind the line of contact, just to give an idea of how much of the Russian forces have to live with the idea of suddenly having incoming dropping on their heads from a clear blue sky.

orange juche fucked around with this message at 01:58 on Jul 16, 2022

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost
SMO (Senior Military Official vice Defense Official today) drop. https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3095350/senior-military-official-holds-a-background-briefing/

tl;dr
-100-150 civilian deaths' in the past two weeks as a result of Russian strikes.
-Russian advances incremental/limited, if any in Northern Donbas
-Essentially, Russia stalled out or extremely slow/limited across multiple lines
-HIMARS continuing to affect supply, ammo, C2, but US doesn't want to comment on it specifically
-US is not tracking weapons once they reach Ukraine, but has no positive indication that they are being used outside of Ukraine
-No indication of Iranian UAVs in theater (this had been reported as a future possibility by National Security Advisor Sullivan)
-SMO will not hazard a guess on percentages of supply issues, says that it clearly affects the immediate troops at the front not getting a resupply as planned, but that Russia has a large national stock of supplies
-8 US-supplied HIMARS in operational use now, the other 4 US HIMARS have been delivered, but US cannot confirm if they are yet operational
-SMO will not say the word Excalibur, but indicates delivery last week of 155mm rounds with "decent precision."
-No indication China is assisting Russian war effort behind the scenes
-When asked if the US is giving targeting information for HIMARS, response is "We've provided information that they're using across the battlefield."


Opener, then just excerpts as I arbitrarily decide

SMO posted:

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Hi, everybody, (inaudible). Again, good to be back with you. And I look forward to our conversation today, and hopefully some helpful conversation.

As mentioned the 142nd day of Russia's unprovoked large-scale invasion of Ukraine. We assess that Russian forces are limited to incremental, if any, gains around the northern Donbas, held off by Ukrainian defenses. Russian forces continue to deploy indiscrimate artillery bombardment, along with air missile strikes. I'll give you a just kind of around the battlefield of what we're seeing on the ground. Near Kharkiv, we assess that the Ukrainians are continuing to defeat Russian attempts to gain ground. In the vicinity of Izium, and Slovyansk, it’s generally the same.

So you know, pretty strong defenses from the Ukrainians, and the Russians have stated publicly that they want to move on Slovyansk, but still have not been able to do so. And then we certainly assess that they continue to employ artillery attacks around Seversk. You -- a number of you have reported on that over last week. We absolutely agree with that. And then down in the south in Mykolaiv and Kherson, nothing really to update you with on the ground, as both sides are continuing to defend or really, no real progress there.

On the maritime domain, I think a number of you have reported that we did see the Vinnytsia missile attack yesterday came from what we believe, or has been reported and we believe there's no reason to suggest otherwise-- was submarine-launched missiles from the Russians. What we know for a fact is that they hit and killed a number of civilians. And I think all told over the week, again, through your reporting, I think we're looking at between 100, 150, somewhere in there, civilian casualties, civilian deaths, this week in Ukraine as a result of Russian strikes.

In terms of HIMARS, I know there's continuing to be a lot of interest about how the HIMARS are performing. You know, needless to say, the Russians are really important in that information. I like to make them work for it, honestly, and I -- but to be quite honest, I'll let the battlefield videos and the Ukrainian reports speak for themselves. They are having an effect, and I think, again, you all have reported on that quite extensively.

And then we continue to train Ukrainians. We continue to provide aid, as you know, with our continued flow.

...

QUESTION: Hi. ... And then second, just a little bit more on the cruise missile strike. The Russians are claiming they hit a military facility, whereas other sort of Ukrainian reports are calling it a concert hall, et cetera. Can you provide any clarity on what it was that they hit, and whether or not there were any military facilities either in the area or whatever that they could have been targeting?

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: ...

And then in terms of the missile strike, I mean, I saw the same videos that you all saw. I didn't see anything there and -- you know, that looked anything close to military. That looked like an apartment building. So no, I have no indication that there was a military target anywhere near that. Over.

...

QUESTION: Can you describe for us any impact the use of HIMARS is having on the front lines? The HIMARS is being used against targets in the rear, but you want it to have an impact on the front lines, and has it had an impact yet?

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: I think, you know, Dave, that's a good question. I think there has been significant impact on what's going on on the front lines. If you think about the fact that the Ukrainians have been talking about a number of the targets they're hitting, you know, they're spending a lot of time striking targets like ammunition supplies, other logistical supplies, command-and-control. All those things have a direct impact on the ability to conduct operations on the front line. So I would say yes, although they're not shooting the HIMARS at the front lines, they're having a very, very significant effect on that.

QUESTION: But have you seen it have an effect? I mean, obviously in theory, that's the whole purpose. But have you seen it have an effect on the ability of the Russians to conduct front line operations?

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Yeah, I -- that's a great question too. I don't know. And this will -- you know, I shouldn't speculate, right? That's not what I'm supposed to do. like you, I mean, we've all seen the Russians slow their movements and advances.

It's hard for me to believe that can't be somehow related to the loss of ammunition or the loss of somebody to tell them where to go. You know, I am told where to go a lot, and when someone doesn't do it, I tend to just sit at my desk. Honestly, I like that, but anyway.

...

Q: Sorry about that. The -- then -- can you expand a little bit on the -- what you said -- there were between 100 to 150 Ukrainian civilian deaths this week as a result of Russian strikes. So you're talking about more than just the strikes that were -- the missile strikes yesterday? You're talking about across -- I don't know if you can provide any more visibility on that, cause we don't normally hear from these backgrounders about Ukrainian civilian deaths, numbers. So I'm just -- how do you have numbers this week? Where were those -- most of those deaths? Were they mostly the submarine missile launches or anything more on that?

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: I -- yeah, so that certainly was the largest one I've seen, but all -- all my numbers are coming from the things that you all are writing. And that's -- that's over the last seven to 14 days, you know, since I was on here -- I don't know when it was -- I think last Friday. But yeah, all open-source.

And again, that range depends on the open source we're looking at. Somewhere between 100 and 150.

Q: So that's -- it's not just this week, that you're saying that the 100 to 150 is over the last one to two weeks, you would say then?

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Yeah, that's correct.

...

Q: Hey, thanks for taking my question. I was wondering, is the U.S. -- does the U.S. plan on tracking weapons once in Ukraine or is the U.S. seeing any problems with the Ukrainians tracking their own weapons? And this has to do with the rumors there are of smuggling the weapons out of Ukraine.

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Sure. We are not tracking weapons, Liz. And quite honestly, I mean, we feel pretty good that the Ukrainians are using the weapons that we've provided to them and have not seen any indications that those weapons have gone anywhere else other than to fight against the Russians.

...

Q: And just to follow up, do you -- National Security Advisor Sullivan earlier this week talked about intelligence that indicated that Iran was preparing to send hundreds of UAVs to Russia to use in the battle. Have you seen any indication that any of these UAVs are showing up, or soon will? Thank you.

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: I haven't seen any indication they are. I mean, it says a lot that the Russians are leaning on Iran to get weapons.

...

Q: Yeah, I wonder if you could put a fuller picture on the incremental gains you've spoken about? I mean, we've been hearing that for quite some time now. Is this kind of where we are now? Do the Russians just lack troops and supplies to do anything more to really have a -- you know, a full push into the Donetsk area? Is it the HIMARS that's leading to this, or are we kind of heading into a stalemate now? If you could just give us a sense of that.

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Yeah, it's probably too early to make a determination like that. I think, you know, again, in terms of where you are on the battlefield, I would -- I have to believe that the HIMARS have had an effect. I don't know that that's -- you know, we didn't think that would be a silver bullet, certainly.

I think what you're seeing is -- you know, what you've got is kind of a matchup between bad morale and strong will. You know, we've seen -- you know, over the past several weeks, as you know, in the east -- the far east there, from Severodonetsk over, we saw the Russians take a pounding -- I mean, literally -- take a pounding to gain what really, when you look at the scale of things, it was not a very large amount of ground.

Now, any ground going back and forth is pretty small, but you've got -- you all have reported on it very well -- the morale of the Russians is really dismal. I think there was an article this morning talking about, you know, some of the ways that the Russians are trying to gain more soldiers.

And so if you couple that with the collective will of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, I think, you know, it's -- we've been saying this, right, for the past couple of weeks. You can't necessarily gauge something just based on the size of the army. There's like that phrase, right? It's not the size of the dog in the fight, but the -- isn't that what it is? Or the size of the fight in the dog…

Q: Right.

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Anyways.

Q: Just give me a sense. Do you think the Russians now are able to make a strong push anywhere in the east or are they just slowly becoming exhausted? Or is it too early to say?

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: You know, I don't want to speak for the Russians here. That's a good question for them, though.

Q: Well from what you're seeing, any sense of that?

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: I certainly think morale affects an army's ability to conduct operations. We talked a little bit about that last week. And so, if they are having morale issues, I would think that would affect them.

And I'll tell you, it'd be hard not to have morale issues at times when, again, you know, you're supposed to get supplies but those supplies were destroyed 40 kilometers behind your lines. That's going to impact on them as well. So anyway, I'll hold there.

...

Q: OK, can I -- can you give us a sense of how the combination of U.S. and Ally-provided ISR, Pumas, Phoenix Ghosts, the Turkish Bayraktar drones, are helping queue the MLRS and other NATO systems?

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Yes, I don't know how they're employing that. I did see an amazing report on CNN about a month and a half, two months ago where they were talking about the Ukrainians and their -- you know, they had a number of drone platoons, and they were using, you know, those little handheld tiny little quadcopters, so I've got to believe that they have figured out how to employ UAS technology pretty well.

Q: Well can I ask you one quickie, too? These Russian strikes in civilian facilities, like the submarine strike, are those potentially in retaliation for the use of HIMARS over there? It's their way of tit for tat, albeit cowardly?

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Yes, I'd hate to speculate on that. I mean, yes. I'd hate to speculate on that.

...

Q: Hey, (inaudible). Thanks for doing this. A couple of questions. First of all, sir, you said that you are not tracking the weapons that we’re given to the Ukrainians, but then you also said that you've not seen any indications that those weapons have been used to do anything other than what they said they were going to do, but how -- can you just clarify that? How do you know? How do you know that latter if you're not tracking these weapons?

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Well not tracking and not knowing where those weapons go I think are probably different things, and what I mean by that is, we're not tracking, you know, the Ukrainians' use of our particular weapons, but we also aren't seeing any indication anywhere else that these weapons have been provided to anybody other than the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Q: Do you have any plans to put any of our people on the ground or closer to monitor this more closely as the battle continues?

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Yes. I don't make any of those decisions, Laura. Those decisions are made across the river.

Q: And then my second question is can you give us a timeline on when those Excalibur munitions are going to arrive or have they arrived already?

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Yes, I don't know that I could tell you that either. I know we provided some additional 155 millimeter rounds last week that have some decent precision, but I don't have anything else on that one.

...

Q: Yes, thanks very much for doing this. First, just want to confirm you said there are now 12 HIMARS actively being used by Ukraine in this fight, the 12 that the U.S. said they would give? And then I have one more.

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Yes, Jeff, we -- I know that they're using the first eight. I don't know, you know, what they're doing with the last four. We've transferred those to the Ukrainians. I don't know if they're in Ukraine or not.

...

Q: If I could, there's also been some reporting that China's finding ways to help Russia behind the scenes. Is any of that playing out in terms of any sort of military aid or military assistance to the Russians at this point?

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: I don't have any knowledge on that or indications.

...

Q: Thanks. I have a couple of questions. First, can you give an assessment of what kind of intelligence that U.S. might be providing to Ukraine to targeting the HIMARS and the ammo dumps? And then I have some other -- another question.

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Yes. We -- so as you know, we're helping the Ukrainians. I'm not going to provide particulars as to how that works, but we've been able to give them information and they've been able to use that information the way they choose to do so.

Q: Can you say whether you're providing information that they're using in the HIMAR strikes?

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: We've provided information that they're using across the battlefield.

my kinda ape
Sep 15, 2008

Everything's gonna be A-OK
Oven Wrangler
Not sure if it would be wise for Ukraine to mine their own waters but don't we have sea mines that are basically just a box with a torpedo in it that sits and waits on the ocean floor until it detects something to launch at?

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost
Deliver an undersea mountain or a Japanese fishing vessel or something, I dunno

Comrade Blyatlov
Aug 4, 2007


should have picked four fingers





Whats Excalibur?

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost

Comrade Blyatlov posted:

Whats Excalibur?

i hope you're ready for industry music

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mj8ThMqjisA

Godholio
Aug 28, 2002

Does a bear split in the woods near Zheleznogorsk?

Comrade Blyatlov posted:

Whats Excalibur?

Expensive GPS guided artillery rounds.

Edit: That answer was much better than mine.

orange juche
Mar 14, 2012



mlmp08 posted:

i hope you're ready for industry music

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mj8ThMqjisA

lol 2m average miss distance is super dead for any command post or something else that doesn't move much that you'd want to shoot artillery at.

A.o.D.
Jan 15, 2006

mlmp08 posted:

i hope you're ready for industry music

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mj8ThMqjisA

I clicked a little too fast because I read that as Industrial music.

Marshal Prolapse
Jun 23, 2012

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

ArmyGroup303 posted:

Quoting because this will somehow actually happen.

My best Tom Clancy-esque guess is that a Russian sub will surface somewhere in the Black Sea because of an emergency (equipment failure from poor maintenance or just plain incompetence), and the Ukraine will fire drones, missiles, and memes in that order to the sub.

Hey we willed the Moskva sinking into existence so why not this. :gritin:

I found a post on potential HIMARS ranges.

https://twitter.com/lukedcoffey/status/1547708160885923841?s=21&t=H285ZBAJ9Pj5yKVZ4uUCeg

RFC2324
Jun 7, 2012

http 418

mlmp08 posted:

i hope you're ready for industry music

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mj8ThMqjisA

watching that video, even a "miss" is pretty much annihilation

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost
Maybe it's 35 misses by 10 centimeters, 1 miss by 70 meters

Cugel the Clever
Apr 5, 2009
I LOVE AMERICA AND CAPITALISM DESPITE BEING POOR AS FUCK. I WILL NEVER RETIRE BUT HERE'S ANOTHER 200$ FOR UKRAINE, SLAVA
Really hoping the fancy new munitions will enable loving with the Crimean bridge.

Marshal Prolapse
Jun 23, 2012

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

mlmp08 posted:

Maybe it's 35 misses by 10 centimeters, 1 miss by 70 meters

Yeah although one look like it just rolled the vehicle down the hill a bit. With that said I’d still say everyone in the car would be absolutely dead and it’s probably also a mobility kill.

That video was pretty cool. I want one now. :lol:

Soul Dentist
Mar 17, 2009
Does Raytheon really measure in meters or still in Freedom Feet?

Also, how does one pronounce ATACMS? I know the protocol is just the letters but is it colloquially "Attack'ms"

Madurai
Jun 26, 2012

my kinda ape posted:

Not sure if it would be wise for Ukraine to mine their own waters but don't we have sea mines that are basically just a box with a torpedo in it that sits and waits on the ocean floor until it detects something to launch at?

CAPTOR mines, yes. Or at least we had them in the early Nineties, I have no idea if they're still in inventory.

BaconAndBullets
Feb 25, 2011

Soul Dentist posted:

Does Raytheon really measure in meters or still in Freedom Feet?

Also, how does one pronounce ATACMS? I know the protocol is just the letters but is it colloquially "Attack'ms"

A-Tac-Ems

Jimmy Smuts
Aug 8, 2000

Lol that Raytheon is now the good guy in this war

Carth Dookie
Jan 28, 2013

Jimmy Smuts posted:

Lol that Raytheon is now the good guy in this war

no they are arming the good guys. that doesnt necessarily make them good, themselves.

Jimmy Smuts
Aug 8, 2000

Carth Dookie posted:

no they are arming the good guys. that doesnt necessarily make them good, themselves.
Good point

Murgos
Oct 21, 2010

Soul Dentist posted:

Does Raytheon really measure in meters or still in Freedom Feet?

Whatever the program office specifies. I’ve done stuff where we report everything in metric, everything in US Standard and where you report one and then the other in parens. As long as it’s consistent in the document it doesn’t tend to be a problem.

In my experience it’s far, far less of a problem then endianness.

lightpole
Jun 4, 2004
I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".
Anyone asking for volumes in bbls gets told to gently caress right off loving limp dick peckerwood get a loving brain.

Raytheon probably feels the same.

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Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

lightpole posted:

Anyone asking for volumes in bbls gets told to gently caress right off loving limp dick peckerwood get a loving brain.

Brazilian butt lifts?

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