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(Thread IKs: fart simpson)
 
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Slavvy
Dec 11, 2012

quote:

Believe in the final rationality of Chinese and American policymakers.

We are completely hosed, aren't we

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BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy
^ yeaaaaaah...

wu xinbo, center for american studies, fudan university:

quote:

Observer.com: Regarding the Taiwan issue, President Xi said in this phone call that public opinion must not be violated, and playing with fire will set you on fire. President Xi also pointed out that if the Taiwan issue is not handled properly, it will have a subversive impact on the relationship between the two countries, and the term "subversive" was first raised. How should we understand the terms "subversive" and "playing with fire"?

Wu Xinbo: "Subversive" means that the foundation of the edifice of Sino-US relations is gone. Without its foundation, the building would collapse. This year marks the 50th anniversary of Nixon's visit to China and the publication of the Shanghai Communiqué. Nixon's visit to China and the "Shanghai Communiqué" resolved a key issue, that is, the United States pursues the "one China" policy on the Taiwan issue, the United States recognizes Taiwan as a part of China, and the government of the People's Republic of China is the only legitimate government representing the whole of China. This became the most important foundation for the development of Sino-US relations in the following decades. If the United States wants to challenge this foundation now, it will be subversive, and the edifice of Sino-US relations will collapse.

"Playing with fire will set oneself on fire" means that the Taiwan issue involves China's core interests and is the core concern of the 1.4 billion Chinese people. If the United States challenges this core interest and concern, China will definitely react violently. Pay a huge price. This fire will burn to the United States itself, so it is called "playing with fire will burn oneself".

Observer.com: Recently, U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was revealed to be planning to visit Taiwan in August this year. China strongly opposed it and spoke harshly. What destructive effects do you think Pelosi's dangerous plan will bring to China-US relations? Will it "play with fire" or trigger "subversive" effects?

Wu Xinbo: I think that if Pelosi insists on visiting Taiwan, the Chinese side will definitely make an unprecedented drastic reaction. This will certainly lead to two crises, one is the crisis in Sino-US relations, and the other is the crisis in the Taiwan Strait.

Therefore, when President Xi talked with Biden, he focused on the Taiwan issue, which means that we are showing our cards to each other. If Pelosi still insists on visiting Taiwan under this circumstance, the two consequences I just mentioned will occur.

Observer.com: Member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the CPC Central Committee Yang Jiechi first mentioned that China-U.S. relations are at a "critical crossroads" during the China-U.S. Luxembourg meeting in June. During the meeting in Bali, State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi It is mentioned for the first time that if this "threat expansion" is allowed to develop, the US policy towards China will be a dead end that cannot be walked out. How to understand the keywords "crossroads" and "dead alleys"?

Wu Xinbo: "Crossroads" means that there are two options for Sino-US relations, one is to develop in the direction of confrontation, and the other is to develop in the direction of cooperation. The US's China policy has been developing in the direction of confrontation since Trump, which means that we have actually passed the "crossroads".

Of course, we hope that Biden will turn back and move in the direction of cooperation again. At the same time, we have also made it clear that if the United States insists on going its own way and continues to push its China policy toward confrontation, which is what they call "competition," then the United States will fail in the end, and if this policy continues, it will be a "dead end."

[...]

Observer.com: In the first half of this year, the Chinese and U.S. military had many interactions. Before that, the two militaries had not interacted with each other for more than a year. In your opinion, what role did military interaction play in the overall high-level interaction between China and the US in the first half of this year?

Wu Xinbo: I think that after Biden took office, the main responsibility for the delay in interaction between the two militaries lies with the United States. The United States is trying to unilaterally change the practice of high-level interaction between China and the United States. Of course, China does not agree. In the end, the US side adjusted its position and agreed to interact with the Chinese side in accordance with past practice. Therefore, the two interactions between the defense ministers of China and the United States in the first half of this year, as well as the interactions between the chiefs of staff of the two militaries, are very important and have two main meanings:

First, to prevent accidents due to misunderstandings and misjudgments. The relationship between China and the United States is relatively tense now. The Chinese and American militaries meet almost every day at sea and in the air in the Western Pacific region. In this case, in order to avoid accidents due to misunderstandings and misjudgments between the two militaries, the two militaries need to maintain good communication channels and increase their understanding of each other's intentions. Biden said that he wants to compete with China, but does not want a conflict, and whether there is a conflict, the two militaries are the key.

Second, explain to each other their respective concerns and main positions. In several interactions this year, our defense ministers and chiefs of staff focused on the Taiwan issue, using very powerful and well-placed words, including "whatever it takes" and so on. In this way, the US military has a better understanding of China's concerns about the Taiwan issue and the risks of the Taiwan issue.

So we see that Biden did not say that he was against Pelosi's plan to visit Taiwan, but that the US military did not think it was a good idea. The U.S. military knew when it communicated with the Chinese military that the Chinese military was ready, so they felt the risk was high. This shows that the high-level interaction between China and the US is helpful for increasing the US's understanding of China's position on the Taiwan issue.

https://www.guancha.cn/wuxinbo/2022_07_29_651527_3.shtml

Cerebral Bore
Apr 21, 2010


Fun Shoe

"coalition of the civilized" lmao forever

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy
kinda just rounding up some commentary. this is another military commenter and i lolled at this part:

quote:

It can be said that from the perspective of the health of the relationship between the [U.S.] military and the government, the United States has reached a terrible level. The military unabashedly uses the life and safety of its political dignitaries as bait for military testing, while the politicians go their own way and create a military crisis for their own selfishness. Facing such an unstable adversary, China's distrust of the United States will further deepen in the future.

In this dangerous atmosphere, we find a strange situation. In Taiwan, which is at the center of the whirlpool, ordinary people have no understanding of the tension. The Taiwanese media, as always, creates the illusion that "nothing happened" to the people, and this ostrich policy continues to work.

It seems that the information cocoon room is still the largest "cognitive warfare" weapon on the other side.

In his speech yesterday, White House spokesman Campbell cited the 1997 US dignitaries' visit to Taiwan. The implication was that the incident did not arouse a strong reaction from China at that time, and it was the same this time. Or to put it more bluntly, they believe that the humiliation of China can be repeated today.

I am afraid this is a miscalculation of the situation, and I am looking for a sword.

In the military commentary on Sunday, we borrowed the theoretical framework of the Cold War era on international crises, and said that an important reason for the formation of crises is the issue of "cognition". Cognition, there are serious strategic misjudgments. What's more serious is that the Biden administration is out of control over the whole situation. In the face of this instability and conceit in the United States, the only solution is to frustrate it and "educate" the American authorities with the facts.

Therefore, the main problem of resolving this crisis is no longer political efforts, but military action. At this point, both sides have faced huge and unnecessary risks.

Our eastern theater officially released a video yesterday, saying: Stand ready, follow orders and fight. Believe, we don't have to say more, just wait and see.

https://www.guancha.cn/XiYaZhou/2022_08_02_651984_1.shtml
the video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OEuuWDKeS1g

Slavvy
Dec 11, 2012

BrutalistMcDonalds posted:

^ yeaaaaaah...

wu xinbo, center for american studies, fudan university:

https://www.guancha.cn/wuxinbo/2022_07_29_651527_3.shtml

So what this tells me is the Chinese military and political apparatus think words have specific meanings and have not yet realized that words have no meaning in the US anymore. This is much more pants-making GBS threads than anything Ukraine related has been, gently caress me.

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy

Slavvy posted:

So what this tells me is the Chinese military and political apparatus think words have specific meanings and have not yet realized that words have no meaning in the US anymore. This is much more pants-making GBS threads than anything Ukraine related has been, gently caress me.
uhh... *aerosmith voice* "hello springfield... are you ready to rock!?!"

:rock:

30.5 Days
Nov 19, 2006
I feel like every American over the age of 70 is trying to figure out how to take the world with them when they die, do they not have that in China?

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fa413aYmjLs

quote:

Sailing warning! Parts of the South China Sea and Bohai Sea are prohibited from entering

stephenthinkpad
Jan 2, 2020
You know, I agree with the "words no longer have
meanings in the US" part.

How do you deal with Biden just wave hands and say "I can't control the congress"?

That's why China is starting to build up the nuclear arsenal, that's the only language US elites understand. A simple mathematical language.

Orange Devil
Oct 1, 2010

Wullie's reign cannae smother the flames o' equality!

Slavvy posted:

We are completely hosed, aren't we

Yes, but on the bright side, so are the liberals.

Dante80
Mar 23, 2015

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1554359765408808971

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1554138958870839297

Orange Devil
Oct 1, 2010

Wullie's reign cannae smother the flames o' equality!

Cerebral Bore posted:

"coalition of the civilized" lmao forever

We bomb children in a civilized way.


30.5 Days posted:

I feel like every American over the age of 70 is trying to figure out how to take the world with them when they die, do they not have that in China?

Boomers looking for the biggest boom of all to go out on.

Orange Devil has issued a correction as of 09:35 on Aug 2, 2022

lollontee
Nov 4, 2014
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!

is the bitch actually going to go through with this?

stephenthinkpad
Jan 2, 2020
Yeah old witch is going today

Plane land in Malaysia soon, stay for a few hours, and then fly to Taiwan.

Edit, actually plane leave Malaysia already

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/SPAR19

stephenthinkpad has issued a correction as of 09:46 on Aug 2, 2022

Mantis42
Jul 26, 2010

going to suck being one the last 50 people on earth and trying to get all the other survivors to please stop using gendered insults when referring to the woman who caused all this.

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy
this is such a stupid loving thing to potentially die over

gently caress!!!

fart simpson
Jul 2, 2005

DEATH TO AMERICA
:xickos:

lol i hate her so much

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy
nancy taking a bathroom break in SPAR19 at the absolutely wrong moment

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_jir9p7Qx0k&t=217s

Cerebral Bore
Apr 21, 2010


Fun Shoe

stephenthinkpad posted:

How do you deal with Biden just wave hands and say "I can't control the congress"?

the only thing the democrat party knows to do anymore is abdicate responsibility

like, joe biden is (at least in theory) the commander in chief of the us armed forces, and those are military planes they're using. he could just order the pilots to not even approach taiwan under any circumstances and there's nothing pelosi can do about it

Cerebral Bore has issued a correction as of 09:58 on Aug 2, 2022

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy
a segment of the 1972 Shanghai Communique: https://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/121325

quote:

The two sides reviewed the long-standing serious disputes between China and the United States. The Chinese side reaffirmed its position: the Taiwan question is the crucial question obstructing the normalization of relations between China and the United States; the Government of the People's Republic of China is the sole legal government of China; Taiwan is a province of China which has long been returned to the motherland; the liberation of Taiwan is China's internal affair in which no other country has the right to interfere; and all US forces and military installations must be withdrawn from Taiwan. The Chinese Government firmly opposes any activities which aim at the creation of "one China, one Taiwan", "one China, two governments", "two Chinas", an "independent Taiwan" or advocate that "the status of Taiwan remains to be determined".

The US side declared: The United States acknowledges that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China. The United States Government does not challenge that position. It reaffirms its interest in a peaceful settlement of the Taiwan question by the Chinese themselves. With this prospect in mind, it affirms the ultimate objective of the withdrawal of all US forces and military installations from Taiwan. In the meantime, it will progressively reduce its forces and military installations on Taiwan as the tension in the area diminishes. The two sides agreed that it is desirable to broaden the understanding between the two peoples. To this end, they discussed specific areas in such fields as science, technology, culture, sports and journalism, in which people-to-people contacts and exchanges would be mutually beneficial. Each side undertakes to facilitate the further development of such contacts and exchanges.

Mantis42
Jul 26, 2010

heroic japanese man prevents ww3, shoots down plane with homemade flak cannon

Orange Devil
Oct 1, 2010

Wullie's reign cannae smother the flames o' equality!

Mantis42 posted:

heroic japanese man prevents ww3, shoots down plane with homemade flak cannon

The unlikeliest Sino-Japanese rapprochement.

crepeface
Nov 5, 2004

r*p*f*c*

lol! lmao!

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy
here's a question: do we know what they're using for fighter escorts? I'm assuming an F/A-18, if only because that's the only decent plane that the US has in its inventory.

Spergin Morlock
Aug 8, 2009

gradenko_2000 posted:

here's a question: do we know what they're using for fighter escorts? I'm assuming an F/A-18, if only because that's the only decent plane that the US has in its inventory.

the two LHDs that are nearby are carrying F-35s

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy

gradenko_2000 posted:

here's a question: do we know what they're using for fighter escorts? I'm assuming an F/A-18, if only because that's the only decent plane that the US has in its inventory.
CVW-5 is attached to forward-deployed Carrier Strike Group (CSG) 5 and flagship USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76), and consists of nine squadrons flying F/A-18E/F Super Hornets, EA-18G Growlers, E-2D Hawkeyes, C-2A Greyhounds and MH-60R/S Sea Hawks.

https://www.airpac.navy.mil/Organization/Carrier-Air-Wing-CVW-5/

Crusader
Apr 11, 2002

gradenko_2000 posted:

here's a question: do we know what they're using for fighter escorts? I'm assuming an F/A-18, if only because that's the only decent plane that the US has in its inventory.

it’s all the ronald reagan has in terms of fighter squadron aircraft, yeah - three F/A-18 E squadrons and one F/A-18 F

edit: disregard for better responses above mine, I didn’t know about uss tripoli and uss america each having their own f-35 compliment

Crusader has issued a correction as of 11:00 on Aug 2, 2022

Dante80
Mar 23, 2015

https://twitter.com/Dragondescendan...8980%2Fpage-127

crepeface
Nov 5, 2004

r*p*f*c*
is pelosi definitely on SPAR19?

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/SPAR19

Raskolnikov38
Mar 3, 2007

We were somewhere around Manila when the drugs began to take hold

https://twitter.com/birch2124/status/1551817429474492418?s=21&t=4yLkZxvr9bbx8DqB5a5ZhQ

Dante80
Mar 23, 2015

https://twitter.com/gyf1314/status/...8980%2Fpage-132

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013


wish this had a better shot of the pelosi cartoon

Mantis42
Jul 26, 2010

https://twitter.com/AndyBxxx/status/1554412429907357696?s=20&t=GiEkO74p0zuP-bMhJ8UABQ

Dante80
Mar 23, 2015

https://twitter.com/IntelWalrus/sta...8980%2Fpage-134

stephenthinkpad
Jan 2, 2020
What's the ETA of SPAR19 entering Taiwan airspace? EST?

Got to time my bubble tea cooking.

Gildiss
Aug 24, 2010

Grimey Drawer
Pelosi going for a "Mad" Mike Hughes maneuver is really something you never expected to see.
But these are interesting times.

exmarx
Feb 18, 2012


The experience over the years
of nothing getting better
only worse.
#HasNancyLandedYet

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy
#whereIsNancyPelosi

Cerebral Bore
Apr 21, 2010


Fun Shoe
do these jabronis believe that china has no navy or something?

either way, sneaking in through the back door is really gonna project and image of strength, that's for sure

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AnimeIsTrash
Jun 30, 2018

https://www.kron4.com/news/paul-pelosi-to-be-arraigned-on-dui-charges-in-napa-county/

Pelosi starting ww3 to distract from her husband being charged with a dui.

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