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Grip it and rip it posted:That doesn't really completely clarify how they did it though. Could just mean that they were in the area providing targeting information. *shrug* Let Russia panic about all the possibilities and spend resources trying to stop all the things.
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Aug 10, 2022 18:53
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https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1557342396664479746?s=20&t=KKpV1Jx3XNPPPSzwJKZ3jwbird food bathtub posted:*shrug* Let Russia panic about all the possibilities and spend resources trying to stop all the things. Yeah, Ukraine's ace up their sleeve has been their Opsec. No reason to give that up now.
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Aug 10, 2022 19:13
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https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1557408899296288770?s=21 So apparently you can actually use rubber as non explosive reactive armor Learn something new everyday
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Aug 10, 2022 19:26
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Alan Smithee posted:https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1557408899296288770?s=21 Huh. Interesting. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-explosive_reactive_armor#Russian_developments quote:By September 1982, the cast turret codenamed 172.10.077SB entered low rate production[ii] and was then dubbed "Super Dolly Parton" by Western observers due to its prominent shape. Each reflecting plate array consisted of an assembly of three layers ; a heavy armor plate, a rubber interlayer and a thin metal plate, all glued together.[10]
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Aug 10, 2022 19:33
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Alan Smithee posted:https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1557408899296288770?s=21 Back in bovington in 2010 I saw a iraqi(?) t-55 turret with cut open additional armor boxes which Were filled If I recall with just sliced-up truck tires and sand. You can use anything as armor, as long as there is lot of it. Rubber, sand, ceramic plates and concrete have all been tested by different experimental composition armor designers, the base idea is that having multiple layers of material with different yield/shear/deforming properties means the projectile is going through a zigzag of forces that are directing into different sides and causing distortion in the trajectory and the penetrator itself. In reality, this does not usually pan out against modern ammunition unless you are willing to make a 2-3-feet thick box of extra ”armor” on Every face of the vehicle you want to protect, so its on the class of ”Well we have the money, and the chassis can take it, so its better than nothing we hope”
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Aug 10, 2022 19:37
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Alan Smithee posted:https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1557408899296288770?s=21 At this point, I think we almost expect this kind of thing from Russia. I am curious about videos that might surface of Chinese equipment. We know that Russia was using tires from China to great success... Does this translate to the Chinese military's quality or did Russia just buy the cheapest poo poo they could find on alibaba?
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Aug 10, 2022 19:39
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Valtonen posted:Back in bovington in 2010 I saw a iraqi(?) t-55 turret with cut open additional armor boxes which Were filled If I recall with just sliced-up truck tires and sand. I’m curious what the sliding trays around the rim of the turret are
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Aug 10, 2022 19:46
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ASAPI posted:At this point, I think we almost expect this kind of thing from Russia. I feel like china would just be selling russia their factory seconds tires or the oldest poo poo in storage. China has no good reason to give Russia reliable or durable supplies. But as long as Russia gets enough trash supplies, they don't really care. At this point, I'm relatively sure China views Russia as a sponge for UN munitions and resources while they take their time planning gently caress-gently caress games for Taiwan.
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Aug 10, 2022 19:52
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Alan Smithee posted:I’m curious what the sliding trays around the rim of the turret are Ashtrays
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Aug 10, 2022 19:54
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https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1557441267109400576?s=20&t=KKpV1Jx3XNPPPSzwJKZ3jw
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Aug 10, 2022 20:03
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CommieGIR posted:https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1557441267109400576?s=20&t=KKpV1Jx3XNPPPSzwJKZ3jw Christ. Someone in the Kremlin is committing suicide over this one.
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Aug 10, 2022 20:05
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Comrade Blyatlov posted:Christ. Someone in the Kremlin is committing suicide over this one. It definently supports the idea of a raid on the base, individual planes inside berms are destroyed without any apparent source of a central explosion https://twitter.com/OSINTua/status/1557440576806608897?s=20&t=V76xOn4AMWQ4teDQ7Q_C_A CommieGIR fucked around with this message at 20:11 on Aug 10, 2022 |
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Aug 10, 2022 20:07
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someone probably just dropped a big box of porno mags in the center of the base and then waited half an hour and walked right in
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Aug 10, 2022 20:21
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Herstory Begins Now posted:someone probably just dropped a big box of porno mags in the center of the base and then waited half an hour and walked right in "Look, a pile of washers and driers!"
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Aug 10, 2022 20:21
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They just did the Olga of Kiev thing and had the Russians in Crimea give them drones as a gesture of peace
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Aug 10, 2022 20:25
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The Guardian is citing at least one analyst who's come to the conclusion that it was indeed a daring commando raid. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/10/ukraine-air-force-claims-russian-jets-destroyed-crimea-raid
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Aug 10, 2022 20:27
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The Ukrainians dressed up as generals and demanded to inspect the jets for parts to flip for profit. The mission nearly was compromised when the Russians noticed they were driving ladas and not Mercedes
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Aug 10, 2022 20:31
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CRUSTY MINGE posted:I feel like china would just be selling russia their factory seconds tires or the oldest poo poo in storage. Deep down inside, I think you are correct. There is a part of me that believes that China is just as corrupt as Russia and that we might get the same "surprise" moment if China is ever in a conflict like this. Oh well, one can hope.
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Aug 10, 2022 20:39
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ASAPI posted:Deep down inside, I think you are correct. I think it's corrupt in a different way. I could see Chinese generals and FGOs covering up major competence/readiness issues and then throwing their subordinates under the bus. I don't see them selling off spare parts and armor, though. But when you're trying to accomplish the most complex military operation possible (an amphibious landing), competence and readiness still matter a lot.
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Aug 10, 2022 20:42
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You still want to prepare and train as if they're maximumly theoretically competent. That's one surprise you don't want going to the other way.
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Aug 10, 2022 20:45
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That's what's so fascinating about Russia/Ukraine right now. You can tell training and readiness took a serious uptick in Ukraine after 2014. Meanwhile, Russia is still running around like it's WW2 and just throwing conscripts into a meat grinder while generals sell off their inventory. China is taking notes just like we're taking notes. I don't see them loving up an invasion of Taiwan near as poorly as Russia is doing in Ukraine, but the fallout is going to be equal parts terrible and fascinating.
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Aug 10, 2022 21:05
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CRUSTY MINGE posted:That's what's so fascinating about Russia/Ukraine right now. You can tell training and readiness took a serious uptick in Ukraine after 2014. Meanwhile, Russia is still running around like it's WW2 and just throwing conscripts into a meat grinder while generals sell off their inventory. Also WWI. Also Russo-Japanese War Also...
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Aug 10, 2022 21:11
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I'd be willing to bet money that the US and Australia would intervene militarily against China to defend Taiwan, with Japan a strong possibility if their constitution permits. So even if China is more competent than Russia, they're going to have to deal with 4 modern, professional militaries who have trained to fight them and whose populations already have a very negative view of Chinese influence.
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Aug 10, 2022 21:12
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Oh, I gather there will be some variety of coalition of the willing, per se, to defend Taiwan. But it won't matter much if China can manage to move quickly, which seems to be the angle they want to take. But that's just me pissing in the wind to wash my shoes.
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Aug 10, 2022 21:20
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CRUSTY MINGE posted:Oh, I gather there will be some variety of coalition of the willing, per se, to defend Taiwan. But it won't matter much if China can manage to move quickly, which seems to be the angle they want to take. Taiwan is quite mountainous. No military that ever existed could move fast enough to make an invasion a fait accompli if Taiwan is dedicated to mounting a serious defense.
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Aug 10, 2022 21:27
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psydude posted:I'd be willing to bet money that the US and Australia would intervene militarily against China to defend Taiwan, with Japan a strong possibility if their constitution permits. So even if China is more competent than Russia, they're going to have to deal with 4 modern, professional militaries who have trained to fight them and whose populations already have a very negative view of Chinese influence. So... nukes?
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Aug 10, 2022 21:31
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CRUSTY MINGE posted:China is taking notes just like we're taking notes. I don't see them loving up an invasion of Taiwan near as poorly as Russia is doing in Ukraine, but the fallout is going to be equal parts terrible and fascinating. Yes, but also invading a country you can surround on three sides and you already have footholds in, that has no navy, that you share a common language with, that you can fly small drones directly to from your country, that uses the same equipment as you, is a bit different than Taiwan. An island bristling with air defenses and anti ship missiles and a hundred miles of open water in every direction. If the last few months has shown anything, it's that SEAD is really loving hard. And Taiwan has way, way better equipment than Ukraine did. Not to mention that opposed amphibious landings are pretty much the hardest thing in all of warfare, and China has done exactly 0 of them in recent history. And even if you ascribe success to the first 4 ludicrously difficult steps of 1. Destroy Taiwan's air defenses 2. Destroy Taiwan's navy 3. Destroy Taiwan's air force 4. Do opposed amphibious landings The Taiwanese are looking too. It seems pretty clear that rustling up some Territorial Defense units pays off in spades. If you put green, poorly trained troops in tanks vs. a group of highly motivated taxi drivers with Javelins, the Ukrainians have shown the taxi drivers are the safer bet. Turns out motivated people with modern weapons can be crazy loving difficult to dislodge. Has China put any effort into demoralizing the people of Taiwan? That actually seems like the first step. The polls showed the Ukrainians were ready to fight, all the way down to individual citizens. If the polls show the same for Taiwan hopefully that gives the Chinese some pause.
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Aug 10, 2022 21:33
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A.o.D. posted:Taiwan is quite mountainous. No military that ever existed could move fast enough to make an invasion a fait accompli if Taiwan is dedicated to mounting a serious defense. It's going to be a goddamn mess no matter how it shakes out. Which will make for some interesting television and tweets, but beyond that, I'm just washing more shoes with piss. Korea is a mountainous little country, and that didn't stop the lines from reaching Busan. Granted, different times, different weapons. E: I'm not up to snuff on Taiwan in general, just kinda rolling with the vibes. I'm sure they can defend themselves for quite a while, but I feel like China is going to play siege tactics with blockades and do their best to starve them out, food or munitions. But we'll be at much worse terms with China geopolitically at that point than currently. An open war with China is going to change a lot, and americans aren't prepared for it in the slightest. Not getting our plastic poo poo is going to make a lot of home politics even more of a pain in the rear end, the gop is going to bitch about "billions being wasted on a fruitless war" in every old gently caress's earshot of a tv with Fox News playing. But like I said, pissing in the wind. CRUSTY MINGE fucked around with this message at 21:46 on Aug 10, 2022 |
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Aug 10, 2022 21:39
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CRUSTY MINGE posted:Oh, I gather there will be some variety of coalition of the willing, per se, to defend Taiwan. But it won't matter much if China can manage to move quickly, which seems to be the angle they want to take. Any invasion of Taiwan that isn't a horrifying bloodbath of sunken troop transports starts with many, many missile and air strikes over a period of weeks or months. Not overflights, not posturing, not missiles landing on empty ocean. That poo poo doesn't do anything to hurt Taiwan's capacity to fight. If Taiwan refuses to be bullied or threatened, all China is doing is wasting valuable missiles. On paper China should be able to win a long-range missile duel pretty decisively. Buuuuuut paper capability vs actually destroying alerted forces actively protecting themselves are pretty different. Oh and China's economy is way more heavily linked to the US's than Russia's. A no-poo poo sanctions package would have blistering effects on them.
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Aug 10, 2022 21:46
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CRUSTY MINGE posted:It's going to be a goddamn mess no matter how it shakes out. Which will make for some interesting television and tweets, but beyond that, I'm just washing more shoes with piss. Yes, but that's basically what I'm saying. The North Koreans couldn't complete their invasion before the UN forces reinforced, and they had the advantage of dealing with an under equipped and completely demoralized South Korean military, a populace that had no faith in their government, and a simple logistical chain. Their scenario was pretty close to ideal. It really should have been a lot like the Taliban reconquest of Afghanistan had it not been for the spirited last ditch defense. There's no way an invasion of Taiwan could go as well or as quickly.
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Aug 10, 2022 21:49
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Uncle Enzo posted:Any invasion of Taiwan that isn't a horrifying bloodbath of sunken troop transports starts with many, many missile and air strikes over a period of weeks or months. Not overflights, not posturing, not missiles landing on empty ocean. That poo poo doesn't do anything to hurt Taiwan's capacity to fight. If Taiwan refuses to be bullied or threatened, all China is doing is wasting valuable missiles. It's tough because China has about a week from the start of hostilities to completely dominate Taiwan before the US and its allies can muster an effective defense. This presumes the US doesn't have insanely detailed advanced warning in the form of high quality intelligence, either. Otherwise they're going to find the entire 7th fleet at their door step.
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Aug 10, 2022 21:55
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Valid points, both of you, enzo and aod. I don't know what will happen, but I expect a bunch of fireworks when it finally goes off, and incredible shitshows from the halls of congress.
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Aug 10, 2022 21:58
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CRUSTY MINGE posted:Valid points, both of you, enzo and aod. You're fundamentally right though, while the outcome is uncertain, the crazy fireworks and complete shitshow would be terrible to behold.
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Aug 10, 2022 22:06
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I can’t remember if it was in GIP or an A/T thread from long ago but someone had an account of the type of training a professional Chinese solider got, and it amounted to firing like five rounds on a flat range. I imagine they have some units that are trained to near Western standards, but I suspect they’re probably few and far between compared to the rest of the PLA. psydude posted:I'd be willing to bet money that the US and Australia would intervene militarily against China to defend Taiwan, with Japan a strong possibility if their constitution permits. So even if China is more competent than Russia, they're going to have to deal with 4 modern, professional militaries who have trained to fight them and whose populations already have a very negative view of Chinese influence. Japan would be interesting. Back in 2016 there was roiling debate about whether the JSDF could take a larger role in combat operations in South Sudan, and this was under the auspices of a UN peacekeeping mandate. That being said, no one hates Asians like other Asians so it wouldn’t surprise me.
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Aug 10, 2022 22:23
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pantslesswithwolves posted:Japan would be interesting. Back in 2016 there was roiling debate about whether the JSDF could take a larger role in combat operations in South Sudan, and this was under the auspices of a UN peacekeeping mandate. That being said, no one hates Asians like other Asians so it wouldn’t surprise me. I've worked extensively with the Japanese and been to Japan a bunch. One common thread has been that they absolutely hate the Chinese. Particularly because they buy up all of the Japanese whiskey.
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Aug 10, 2022 22:28
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The most important lesson for the PRC to learn from Ukraine is that if your plans are contingent on buying an army of quislings to throw the doors open for you, make sure the checks clear before you do anything else.
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Aug 10, 2022 22:29
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The reforms the Ukrainians made to their military are very much a reaction to what happened after they got left dangling in the wind in 2011. Their performance in the initial stages of the Russian invasion were a lot less inspiring than they have been in Act II.
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Aug 10, 2022 22:34
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pantslesswithwolves posted:I can’t remember if it was in GIP or an A/T thread from long ago but someone had an account of the type of training a professional Chinese solider got, and it amounted to firing like five rounds on a flat range. I imagine they have some units that are trained to near Western standards, but I suspect they’re probably few and far between compared to the rest of the PLA. I remember that account too, but I don't recall exactly where or when I heard it. It's one of the things that pops into my mind when I think about China starting a war anywhere. I wouldn't really doubt that it's an outdated take now, but it always comes to mind.
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Aug 10, 2022 22:45
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CRUSTY MINGE posted:I remember that account too, but I don't recall exactly where or when I heard it. It's one of the things that pops into my mind when I think about China starting a war anywhere. Recently in this thread or in the cold war thread there was an inspiring Chinese troop training montage. Lots of combat rolls followed by emptying your rifle into a clump of weeds. I want to say there was jumping through flaming hoops, and I think there was karate-chopping of boards too. There weren't any shots of stuff I see in western training montages. Classroom instruction, guy at shooting range having his posture carefully adjusted by an instructor, unit PT exercises, people standing around a piece of disassembled equipment looking intently while the expert points stuff out. And yes, they're all propaganda, on both sides. But I still maintain that showing "we teach people how to do their jobs" portrays a really different mindset than "we are so manly and badass, look at us freezing naked for no reason"
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Aug 10, 2022 23:52
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Uncle Enzo posted:Recently in this thread or in the cold war thread there was an inspiring Chinese troop training montage. It was about a month ago that there was a video that came out of Ukraine that was exactly that. It was a class teaching how to fit a mortar round onto an RPG-7. It looked almost exactly like nearly every Thursday training day class I'd ever participated in.
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Aug 10, 2022 23:56
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